Hey Mike, you attracted a lot of attention on this side of the "pond". Will Schryver posted about your article on X, according to Mark Wauck. I regularly read both, and they have large followings. Great exposure! As always, thanks for letting me read this before it was released! ;-)
Interestingly the natural gas price in the Euro market has gone up from 26 EUR/MWh to 36 EUR/MWh within a week of the Oreshnik strike. Something that makes you wonder, no smoke without fire, eh...
Also the strike on aircraft repair plant was confirmed by RUMOD.
So maybe they programmed the individual warheads to strike both targets - aircraft repair plant and gas infrastructure.
Colonel Cassad recently released satellite photos of the Stryj gas facility, it appears a lot of the infrastructure is already destroyed. Is it from the Oreshnik strike or previous strikes?
Russians hit Stryi before, probably with drones and cruise missiles. I believe that major pumps and transfer stations were damaged but not destroyed.
Oreshnik is more than sufficient to hit the shafts deep underground, so it can damage them beyond repair. Almost nothing will be visible on the surface, but at 20-30 m, the shaft piping and concrete casing would be destroyed.
If I understand correctly, the gas field infrastructure was already damaged by previous attacks. Therefore, the likely Oreshnik target was the underground secure bunker, serving in a command-control capacity and thus a valuable strategic target. In the description of the bunker, however, you left out the most important jobs—cooking and cleaning!
We’re doing great, but the nights have been “interesting” because the little one is teething 🤣 Thanks for asking. I always enjoy reading the comments from all of you 🤗👍
I hope at some point in the future, when your family is older and less-time intensive that you may publish a few articles here, as I found your perspective interesting.
The Avangard is a component of a weapon system. It serves as the final stage of an ICBM, sitting on top of new (and probably existing ICBM models). It's mission is the delivering of a nuclear warhead. So, the destruction power depends on the choice for this warhead.
Reported speeds ("hypersonic") refer to speeds out of or within thin atmosphere. It must be borne in mind that every ballistic missile beyond a certain range must unavoidable reach "hypersonic" speed. Well, except in empty space there is no "sonic" at all.
Not actually an informative article, lots of words, little of import.
1. Oreshnik IS NOT a glide vehicle, it is basically the Russian version of the US "Rods from God" that actually works. The bus aims the warheads/rods, then lets them go, 30 seconds or so later, they impact.
2. Avengard is SPECIFICALLY a hypersonic gliding NUCLEAR warhead.
Neither of those things make nuclear warheads obsolete.
Thank you, Mike, for your usual excellent work on this ":message" from Russia to NATO, which must be clear to NATO, but has remained obscured by NATO to the rest of us who "don't need to know".
We are all forced to presume, and you are very good to make clear what are presumptions and educated guesses, and also what is derived from evidence like geolocation.
This is the best analysis of this clearly-important "message" which I have seen so far.
I will include it in my next post, assuming we all survive that long.
It was faster than predicted. Did it also have visibility skip-outs?
What exactly did it hit, and how precisely? Did it destroy something really important and hard to replace? Did it precisely hit something Russia was not thought to know about? Might that imply security breaches in NATO?
What was in the sabots within the 6 submunition warheads?
Was there any unique signature there, such as uranium or plutonium inside of tungsten , which would be a special-communication? There would be a clear reason to put DU inside tungsten to burn out underground chambers, so that would be a bit ambiguous.
Enriched uranium would do the same, but with a very strong signal about what comes next in the escalation
Wow -- small world! I usedta read your comments at The Automatic Earth, Dr. John. On the Internet, where there are potentially billions of commenters, I'm always amazed when I see a nym I recognise from a completely different venue. Military geekery here, finance/politics there. I can't say I agreed with your politics on TAE -- I'm more of a socialist lefty -- but you put a lot of thought into them, so good onya for that. I hope Raul/Ilargi is doing OK. I met him and Nicole/Stoneleigh once when she was giving a presentation in Firenze, Italia in 2011. But I drifted away from TAE after she left. Keep up the fight, brother! Anything is better than passivity.
Thanks Bukko. I arranged for Stoneleigh to come speak in Austin around 2008, which went well, and was quite instructive. We chatted some before her talk.
I don't intend to be left or right politically, but focused on truth and the flows of history.
My nature is inherenly left, but at this point of life that hardly seems to matter.
There have been some social inversions of what was left and what was right in the 1970s & 1980s, as you have likely noticed.
A very evocative description of the Oreshnik strike, as if a peasant had witnessed Thor unleashing bolts of incredible and mysterious destruction down against the underworld.
The best is yet to come, so some say, in some circles. Always a delight to read your offerings. Fine, very fine my friend of the North 40. Thank you. 💙🇷🇺❤️🐈⬛
Arguably the greatest gift US has ever given Russia
The Ukraine theater has been a "live lab" for Russia across missiles (Iskander, Kinzhal, Zircon, now Oreshnik), drones, and EW
The Oreshnik has been employed twice in combat (November 2024 on Dnipro, January 2026 on Lviv/Stryi), both times with inert kinetic payloads for demonstration and limited damage.
TESTING TESTING This has given Russia invaluable data:
ON NOTICE US WAS GIVEN NOTICE and Yet
Full end-to-end flight validation: Launch from Kapustin Yar, MIRV release, hypersonic reentry maneuvers, terminal guidance, and impact effects under operational conditions (e.g., evading Ukrainian air defenses like Patriot/S-300). - When the US KNEW IT WAS COMING
Telemetry and survivability insights: Real atmospheric interactions, plasma sheath performance, and how the system handles electronic warfare or radar tracking—far more realistic than controlled test ranges.
The gift is unbelievable - Putin should have a picture of Trump on his wall with a big Thank You scrawled below it.
It is interesting that there have been no Ukrainian or NATO reports on the damage from the first Oreshnik strike -- not even leaks after all these months! Presumably there will be no reports on the damage from this strike either. The lack of leaks suggests that any information is being kept very tight to a small group of people -- probably mostly to deny any useful operational information to Russia which could be used to make subsequent strikes even more effective.
Presumably NATO would really like to analyze the site in detail, including looking for clues on the materials used in the warheads. But the more people who get involved in the investigation, the greater the likelihood of leaks which would benefit the Russian side. Perhaps NATO/Ukraine are not investigating too deeply for that reason?
Satellite BDA + photos from local sympathisers would give Russia all the information it needs about performance.
The biggest thing about Ukrainian/NATO silence is that it even extends to commercial satellite imagery providers, not just a total image blackout at the local level.
The crackdown on imagery matches or exceeds the Soviet zealotry in covering up Chernobyl, which is an interesting tell, because the only people that it (NATO/EU)needs to hide that information from is the normal everyday citizen. Of every country.
Pandora’s box is open and never to be closed again. Earth, wind and fire in its most basic form created the earth, ok. water and electricity are needed as much, but let’s keep it primitive. Those elements/powers created the earth but also the same can destroy the earth. No more nuclear bravado, rolling muscles nor boasting, the one who drops the bomb first all the rest will accompany him in his annihilation.
Now there’s speed and sound, rumble and vibration, lightning and thunder, vibrations and pyroclasts, tsunamis and asteroids programmed to hit a chosen area, Antarctic temperatures directed at the tropics, tectonic shifts and inundations for places that are out of reach for millennia….and propaganda and brainwaves going far beyond our muddy earth into the endless galaxy.
Poor me who am I to place this poor Oreshnik, who can transcend our nuclear mind, reaching far beyond the stars the smallest unit and microcosms of some area buried deep, deep below this poor earth. Speed and sound or is it beats and decibels…are we going to a total melt down in a war that’s has music in it…..Aaaaaaaauuuummmmmmmmm.
Yes a star is born Oreshnik, but how many stars are there? and just off the record psychiatrist like P. Breggin say the stars in our brain outnumber galaxy stars, when are we going to use them to our greater power and glory for everybody, from the littlest pebble to the great God and beyond?
Russians are very spiritual people, they have a soul drowned in vodka and if there’s RUM left they will take it, even the Oreshnik is spiritual after all it makes you see the light! PFC Billy I invite you to the party so you can see the light as well, and join the club of the spiritual.
Hey Mike, you attracted a lot of attention on this side of the "pond". Will Schryver posted about your article on X, according to Mark Wauck. I regularly read both, and they have large followings. Great exposure! As always, thanks for letting me read this before it was released! ;-)
Hardly. Schryver and Wauck push Kremlin "narratives." And Xitter is a cesspool of "russophiles," and deplorables.
putinista writes about another putinista's content. Shocking!
Wow, we seem to have attracted some trolls
Complete with vulgarity accusations, and a side order of ignorance
I guess that’s a sign you’re moving up in the world
Which words did you find vulgar? "Fellate?" Awfully delicate of you.
"Accusations?" Do you dispute that Schryver and Wauck echo kremlin's stories?
Can't Russian Nazi handle the truth?
He cannot even handle his own psychotic fantasies.
Hey Dirty-Grrrl, you'd dispute the Kremlin if they said "water is wet".
Thankyou a lot for this.
You are welcome
Interestingly the natural gas price in the Euro market has gone up from 26 EUR/MWh to 36 EUR/MWh within a week of the Oreshnik strike. Something that makes you wonder, no smoke without fire, eh...
Also the strike on aircraft repair plant was confirmed by RUMOD.
So maybe they programmed the individual warheads to strike both targets - aircraft repair plant and gas infrastructure.
Colonel Cassad recently released satellite photos of the Stryj gas facility, it appears a lot of the infrastructure is already destroyed. Is it from the Oreshnik strike or previous strikes?
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10309410.html
Russians hit Stryi before, probably with drones and cruise missiles. I believe that major pumps and transfer stations were damaged but not destroyed.
Oreshnik is more than sufficient to hit the shafts deep underground, so it can damage them beyond repair. Almost nothing will be visible on the surface, but at 20-30 m, the shaft piping and concrete casing would be destroyed.
If I understand correctly, the gas field infrastructure was already damaged by previous attacks. Therefore, the likely Oreshnik target was the underground secure bunker, serving in a command-control capacity and thus a valuable strategic target. In the description of the bunker, however, you left out the most important jobs—cooking and cleaning!
the reaction of Macron would point to French personal having been present at the receiving spot
That would certainly explain the condition of his right eye.
No, that was caused by a whip lash from his man/wife Brigitte.
Hahahahahaha!!
Wonderful text! Thanks
You are welcome
Tried to buy you lunch but clicking on the site doesn’t work.
So fun reading the truth of what may of happened.
NATO command centre close to the Polish Border in hardened bunkers makes perfect sense .
No satellite but fibre optic lines underground for communication and so on .
The gas plant has already been hit I think .
Thank you Mike and Piquet for another very informative article!
A couple of questions:
1. What is the guidance mechanism or methodology for the Oreshnik's glide vehicle?
2. Have you an educated guess as to the Avangard's destructive power? I believe both effectively make nuclear weapons obsolete.
Bonus: How is Aleks and his young family doing? I hope very well and in great health.
Cheers from Lincoln!
We’re doing great, but the nights have been “interesting” because the little one is teething 🤣 Thanks for asking. I always enjoy reading the comments from all of you 🤗👍
I hope at some point in the future, when your family is older and less-time intensive that you may publish a few articles here, as I found your perspective interesting.
Many congratulations, Aleks! Enjoy your blessings!
The Avangard is a component of a weapon system. It serves as the final stage of an ICBM, sitting on top of new (and probably existing ICBM models). It's mission is the delivering of a nuclear warhead. So, the destruction power depends on the choice for this warhead.
Reported speeds ("hypersonic") refer to speeds out of or within thin atmosphere. It must be borne in mind that every ballistic missile beyond a certain range must unavoidable reach "hypersonic" speed. Well, except in empty space there is no "sonic" at all.
Not actually an informative article, lots of words, little of import.
1. Oreshnik IS NOT a glide vehicle, it is basically the Russian version of the US "Rods from God" that actually works. The bus aims the warheads/rods, then lets them go, 30 seconds or so later, they impact.
2. Avengard is SPECIFICALLY a hypersonic gliding NUCLEAR warhead.
Neither of those things make nuclear warheads obsolete.
🦗🦗🦗
(Couldn’t find a tumbleweed)
Great article, Mike, as always. Enjoyed it.
Thank you, Mike, for your usual excellent work on this ":message" from Russia to NATO, which must be clear to NATO, but has remained obscured by NATO to the rest of us who "don't need to know".
We are all forced to presume, and you are very good to make clear what are presumptions and educated guesses, and also what is derived from evidence like geolocation.
This is the best analysis of this clearly-important "message" which I have seen so far.
I will include it in my next post, assuming we all survive that long.
I keep thinking about "message" possibilities.
How visible was this Oreshnik on radar tracking?
It was faster than predicted. Did it also have visibility skip-outs?
What exactly did it hit, and how precisely? Did it destroy something really important and hard to replace? Did it precisely hit something Russia was not thought to know about? Might that imply security breaches in NATO?
What was in the sabots within the 6 submunition warheads?
Was there any unique signature there, such as uranium or plutonium inside of tungsten , which would be a special-communication? There would be a clear reason to put DU inside tungsten to burn out underground chambers, so that would be a bit ambiguous.
Enriched uranium would do the same, but with a very strong signal about what comes next in the escalation
Wow -- small world! I usedta read your comments at The Automatic Earth, Dr. John. On the Internet, where there are potentially billions of commenters, I'm always amazed when I see a nym I recognise from a completely different venue. Military geekery here, finance/politics there. I can't say I agreed with your politics on TAE -- I'm more of a socialist lefty -- but you put a lot of thought into them, so good onya for that. I hope Raul/Ilargi is doing OK. I met him and Nicole/Stoneleigh once when she was giving a presentation in Firenze, Italia in 2011. But I drifted away from TAE after she left. Keep up the fight, brother! Anything is better than passivity.
Thanks Bukko. I arranged for Stoneleigh to come speak in Austin around 2008, which went well, and was quite instructive. We chatted some before her talk.
I don't intend to be left or right politically, but focused on truth and the flows of history.
My nature is inherenly left, but at this point of life that hardly seems to matter.
There have been some social inversions of what was left and what was right in the 1970s & 1980s, as you have likely noticed.
Feel free to drop by my current Substack.
There is content and a thoughtful commentariat.
;-)
A very evocative description of the Oreshnik strike, as if a peasant had witnessed Thor unleashing bolts of incredible and mysterious destruction down against the underworld.
The best is yet to come, so some say, in some circles. Always a delight to read your offerings. Fine, very fine my friend of the North 40. Thank you. 💙🇷🇺❤️🐈⬛
A long thoughtful article that you probably spent some time on.
Thanks!
You are welcome
The TREMENDOUS GIFT to Russia
Arguably the greatest gift US has ever given Russia
The Ukraine theater has been a "live lab" for Russia across missiles (Iskander, Kinzhal, Zircon, now Oreshnik), drones, and EW
The Oreshnik has been employed twice in combat (November 2024 on Dnipro, January 2026 on Lviv/Stryi), both times with inert kinetic payloads for demonstration and limited damage.
TESTING TESTING This has given Russia invaluable data:
ON NOTICE US WAS GIVEN NOTICE and Yet
Full end-to-end flight validation: Launch from Kapustin Yar, MIRV release, hypersonic reentry maneuvers, terminal guidance, and impact effects under operational conditions (e.g., evading Ukrainian air defenses like Patriot/S-300). - When the US KNEW IT WAS COMING
Telemetry and survivability insights: Real atmospheric interactions, plasma sheath performance, and how the system handles electronic warfare or radar tracking—far more realistic than controlled test ranges.
The gift is unbelievable - Putin should have a picture of Trump on his wall with a big Thank You scrawled below it.
It is interesting that there have been no Ukrainian or NATO reports on the damage from the first Oreshnik strike -- not even leaks after all these months! Presumably there will be no reports on the damage from this strike either. The lack of leaks suggests that any information is being kept very tight to a small group of people -- probably mostly to deny any useful operational information to Russia which could be used to make subsequent strikes even more effective.
Presumably NATO would really like to analyze the site in detail, including looking for clues on the materials used in the warheads. But the more people who get involved in the investigation, the greater the likelihood of leaks which would benefit the Russian side. Perhaps NATO/Ukraine are not investigating too deeply for that reason?
Satellite BDA + photos from local sympathisers would give Russia all the information it needs about performance.
The biggest thing about Ukrainian/NATO silence is that it even extends to commercial satellite imagery providers, not just a total image blackout at the local level.
The crackdown on imagery matches or exceeds the Soviet zealotry in covering up Chernobyl, which is an interesting tell, because the only people that it (NATO/EU)needs to hide that information from is the normal everyday citizen. Of every country.
Pandora’s box is open and never to be closed again. Earth, wind and fire in its most basic form created the earth, ok. water and electricity are needed as much, but let’s keep it primitive. Those elements/powers created the earth but also the same can destroy the earth. No more nuclear bravado, rolling muscles nor boasting, the one who drops the bomb first all the rest will accompany him in his annihilation.
Now there’s speed and sound, rumble and vibration, lightning and thunder, vibrations and pyroclasts, tsunamis and asteroids programmed to hit a chosen area, Antarctic temperatures directed at the tropics, tectonic shifts and inundations for places that are out of reach for millennia….and propaganda and brainwaves going far beyond our muddy earth into the endless galaxy.
Poor me who am I to place this poor Oreshnik, who can transcend our nuclear mind, reaching far beyond the stars the smallest unit and microcosms of some area buried deep, deep below this poor earth. Speed and sound or is it beats and decibels…are we going to a total melt down in a war that’s has music in it…..Aaaaaaaauuuummmmmmmmm.
Well, when you put it like that…🤨
Yes a star is born Oreshnik, but how many stars are there? and just off the record psychiatrist like P. Breggin say the stars in our brain outnumber galaxy stars, when are we going to use them to our greater power and glory for everybody, from the littlest pebble to the great God and beyond?
But WHY is the rum gone?!
Russians are very spiritual people, they have a soul drowned in vodka and if there’s RUM left they will take it, even the Oreshnik is spiritual after all it makes you see the light! PFC Billy I invite you to the party so you can see the light as well, and join the club of the spiritual.
No rivers of vodka never dry up, but RUM? Yes in Venezuela perhaps.