Strategic Stability and Prospects for Nuclear War

Thoughts about the deployment of nuclear weapons

Introduction [i]

[NOTE (Piquet): Aleks released this article for editing/publishing on Thursday, 22 June, 2023. With the other urgent matters arising, Aleks decided to delay publication until now]

In the last discussion, I saw that the question of whether nuclear war/WW3 would emerge from the Ukrainian conflict or not was asked frequently.

In fact, I discussed this topic piecemeal, shared over several articles. Now I will summarize my thoughts in a short update.

Deterrence

Over the course of the cold war, both superpowers developed processes to ensure mutual assured destruction in case the vital interests of either party are jeopardized.

During the cold war this included ideological considerations. Nowadays the threshold is higher.

The Russian nuclear doctrine summarizes it very well. Nuclear weapons should only be used:

• In case of a nuclear attack (WMDs in general) on Russia, its armed forces, or allies.

• If the existence of the Russian state is at risk during a large-scale conventional conflict.

Which is reasonable.

The American nuclear doctrine has a lower threshold. But it doesn’t matter. Americans like poker. In real world circumstances I assume that nuclear weapons would only be used if the American mainland is at risk or if nuclear weapons would be used against America. Very powerful oligarchs are in possession of the United States of America. No, not the people, the democracy, or the constitution. Very powerful oligarchs. And they will not put their wealth, lives, and power at risk unless it is unavoidable.

America nowadays is, by an order of magnitude, more corrupt than during the cold war. Back then, ideologues decided what to do. Ideologues might have decided to stick by Article 5 in order to avenge NATO allies. Today’s oligarchs would definitely not.

Hence, I assume (but I could be wrong indeed) that the USA does not wish WW3 or a nuclear war and would retreat as much as needed to avoid it until its own red lines were reached. Meaning  the boundaries of the American continent.

Bad news indeed for the British, who are currently carrying out all these fancy “James Bond” attacks against Russia… 😊

Russia has two stages of warnings. Let’s first look at a map. Note: The lines are drawn according to my assumptions. Of course, I could be entirely wrong about them. Hence, it is more important that you understand my message instead of discussing where which imaginary lines should be. Moreover, the real lines are not only geographical, but they take other security aspects into consideration like terrorist attacks etc.

Here is the map (only for discussion):

Explanation:

• Yellow line: If you put nuclear weapons any closer, expect a serious response.

• Red line: MAD (mutual assured destruction) is being antagonized. Russia will fight the intruder. If it deterrence fails, then global extinction follows and is fully accepted by Russia.

• Both lines are mainly about the deployment of nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, there are further yellow and red lines which I did not consider here since I’m writing about nuclear weapons. For example, color-revolution in Belarus, Ukraine (the reversal is currently ongoing), Kazakhstan, Georgia (Georgia is currently “conserved” for the time after the fall of the West) etc. I will explain this another day in more detail.

Miscalculations

Well, Russia is trying to protect itself. Hence, there is no need to forward deploy nuclear weapons to blackmail or pressure someone. The United States, on the other hand, is forward deploying its nuclear weapons to literally have a knife on Russia’s throat. The threat of an instant decapitation would be overwhelming.

Why?

Because the flight time of a missile, especially if the Americans manage it to make its hypersonic program work, to Moscow and St. Petersburg would be only minutes from Ukraine, Finland, or the Baltics. There is absolutely no time for humans to take any decision about shooting them down and starting a full-blown counterstrike. It is physically impossible.

Dead hand

So, what to do?

Well, the Soviets developed the Dead Hand system. In Russian it is called Perimetr. Ask Scott Ritter about it. He had some fun with this system back in the eighties when he was a weapons inspector in the Soviet Union.

Without going into great details here, it is designed to automatically launch an all-out nuclear counterstrike against predefined targets in case of a nuclear attack on Russia.

There are two operations modes. Manual approval or automatic approval. There are Perimetr sensors all over Russia. They are measuring all kinds of physical values. Temperature, radiation, noise etc. Moreover, there are dedicated radars to detect missile launches. They calculate probabilities to determine if the detected object is a missile; whether it flies into Russia; and how high is the probability that it is nuclear.

If the system concludes that a nuclear attack is imminent then it will ask a decision maker in the manual mode whether to counterstrike. On automatic mode it automatically fires everything it has on predetermined targets. In manual mode, if it concludes that the strike already happened and Russia lies in tatters, then it does the same as in automatic mode.

Dead end (Russian roulette)

Putting nuclear weapons into Ukraine, the Baltics, or Finland would be the death sentence for all of us. At such a short distance a manual mode is impossible. No one can react within seconds. The system would be in automatic mode and the first radar error would automatically cause global extinction. For example, a large bird-swarm that would be falsely interpreted as a missile attack.

Here is the point. The Americans tried to do that. But not because they are suicidal. No. I don’t believe in this fairy tale. The Americans had a very good strategy to kick Russia out of the game. In other words, to end Russia and partition it into many successor countries. And the strategy was good. I admit that.

Destabilizing all key neighbors, allies, and their populations, and turning them against Russia. Force Russia to invade Ukraine to address that, and then trigger shock and awe sanctions while triggering simultaneous civil war in Kazakhstan, which is another red line. Which would bog Russia down in two geographically distinct locations into a major war. The home front would crumble because of successful sanctions. Body bags would come home in a steady stream (see Ukraine now).

Russia prepared itself with the help of its allies since at least 2014 (I’d rather argue since 2003 for exactly this moment). All efforts of the US strategy failed. The strategy was good. The counter measures of Russia and its allies were better.

The US knows that there is no possible path to victory left. I’m not only talking about Ukraine. I’m talking about the geopolitical strategic picture and the security in Europe. The US will be rolled back as is described in the draft treaty for European security. More likely, it will lose its European allies because NATO will most likely start to disintegrate as soon as the Russian troops are winking to the Polish border guards from a distance of 100 yards.

Well, it is pretty easy now. The US tried the big throw, it gambled big and it lost. Now it needs to retreat and it will retreat, because the alternative is WW3 (equal to global extinction). The security of the US mainland is definitely not at risk in Europe. Hence, there is no need to escalate for the Europeans. (Forget entirely about article 5. NATO = USA.). The US can/will regroup and prepare itself for the emerging world order.

Hence, the massive scale genocide and scorched earth in Ukraine. These are solely macro-economic considerations. Russia will need to focus its capital, manufacturing, and building capacities on Ukraine instead of building washing machines (Russia dropped all over Ukraine 😊) for global markets. By withdrawing from its attempts to collapse Russian and gain control over China in consequence, the Americans can now regroup. They can and will prepare for the emerging multipolar world order. Sacrificing in the process many of its allies. At the end everything comes down to securing markets. I mean everything. Has been for thousands of years.

The Americans will try to take over most of the markets that are being served by its allies, and enemies as well. Russia should also try to secure markets in the emerging world order. Both against the United States and the other BRICS nations. But it will have difficulties if most of its resources are diverted to Ukraine for rebuilding. And the rebuilding will need to be done fast to satisfy the civilians and avoid unrest. It is the quickest path to peace. One can understand now what “scorched earth” is all about. The sacrifice of millions of Ukrainians. And make no mistake, millions will be assimilated by the West as workforce which didn’t need to be born, raised and, educated. They are there in a good age. Most of them female.

Moreover, by prolonging the conflict as much as possible and supplying all the old soviet and western equipment to Ukraine where it got destroyed, America is creating further large markets to replenish the gaps. The death of F16s will be an accelerator for the sale of F35, for example.

The Americans will try to cause as much destruction (especially forcing the Russians to destroy as much manufacturing plants and infrastructure as possible) and death in Ukraine as possible (anyways all future Russians and Russia) and then do the Kabul trick. Fly away with Ukrainians falling from the plane. Okay, that was cynical, especially since there are no American planes, but it should help you visualize what I mean.

That’s why I keep on constantly telling you that I don’t believe that WW3 will emerge from the Ukraine conflict. It definitely WILL happen and kill us all. But not emerging from Ukraine and, if we are lucky, not in our or our children’s lifetime.

I still always keep highlighting the probability of 15% that WW3 will still happen. Why?

The Americans don’t want to die as long as America is not in danger. They will not trigger it. The Russians definitely WILL and WANT to die to end the threat of the decapitation within seconds. Hence, if the Americans do not withdraw then à Big bada boom. (Quote from the move “The Fifth Element”). These terms are acceptable.

It is an easy equation (provided that my assumptions are right, but which could be entirely wrong): Russia is insisting that America withdraw as outlined in the draft treaty for European security. If not: Big bada boom. The Americans have a red line going through the Atlantic, which is not jeopardized and they don’t want to die unless this line is not crossed. They will build up a pivoted economy. Both preconditions equate to an American withdrawal to the lines of the draft treaty.

They will not admit it, and not proclaim it publicly, to save face against the remaining European allies. They will try to find a backdoor solution like Khrushchev and Kennedy did during the Cuba crisis. I’m only afraid that we will need to wait until a new US President has been elected until such backdoor negotiations can start.

Hence, I estimate a probability of 100% to an avoidance of WW3 which would emerge from Ukraine and would be started because of an American trigger. But why do I still always say there is a possibility of 15%? Because of incidents and mad people across Europe and the USA that could do all kinds of crazy stuff to avoid a change in the status quo. And there are a lot of powerful people who could trigger any kind of incidents which perhaps could not be contained. I assign 15% probability to such morons and incidents.

If you take a revolver with six chambers and play Russian Roulette with it then you have a probability of 15% (approx.) to die. Hence, we all are currently playing a slow-motion Russian roulette. The pulling of the trigger started when President (???) Biden took office. The mechanisms of the gun are slowly working and the hammer is moving slowly down. I think it will touch down when the elections in the USA will be decided (???) next year. Then we will know whether there was a bullet in the chamber or not. (I could be wrong with respect to the exact time when this first iteration of pulling the trigger will end).

Conclusion

Now I explained my 15% again. I did that already but I think it was good to summarize everything in one article.

There are already everywhere signs that the Americans capitulated. Unfortunately, they still will try to crush the whole of Ukraine to powder. Scorched Earth left behind for the Russians. They crushed already a lot. I still hope and believe that Russia will soon trigger the collapse of Ukraine to stop them physically from self-destruction.

Here is a little hint. The end of the Dollar as a global reserve currency will be a big nail in America’s coffin. And also, the social dynamite that is being planted there with the forced transformation of American society and culture. Apart from losing east Europe, unfortunately for the American people, they could lose far more without a single interference from foreign powers. I’ll explain that in my further Economics and Empires articles.

I still want to highlight one fact, which sometimes keeps me up at night.

I believe entirely that the American oligarchs are hardcore capitalists. They put money and power far above ideology. And I’m not talking about puppets like Nuland and others. My model is based on the assumptions that the Oligarchs in charge are some kind of “Homo economicus”. Putting profit before anything else.

Keep in mind that I could be entirely wrong and that they would also act ideologically. Or that the puppets in public (Nuland, Blinken etc.) could screw the Oligarchs and try to execute own ideological decisions which would lead to an uncontrollable chain of events and still conclude in WW3 and global extinction.

In case that my analysis is wrong (which is ALWAYS possible) and the oligarchs in charge do not act rational but ideologically, then the probability for global extinction rises up to 99,99%. I want to be clear, with all my information, knowledge, and experience with such people I stick by my own analysis and assumptions and my 15%. And you should pray that I’m right. (I do that as well 😊).

[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)