Update
Announcement of a new article and a short sitrep
Hello friends,
I wanted to give you some updates. These will be my topics:
Some remarks about the Ukrainian war
What the next article will be
Okay, let’s start.
Remarks about the Ukrainian war:
I don’t intend to write about operational issues, unless I didn’t finish all planned articles, mentioned in the introduction article. See here.
The main reason is, that my intention is more, to give you all the circumstances and backgrounds about what is going on, then to zoom into the details. If you know the geopolitical circumstances and backgrounds, then you will look onto this conflict from another perspective.
Nevertheless, even in my pre-scheduled articles, mentioned above, we have three articles about the three phases of this war. Where you will get, as I did already with phase 1, a very good understanding of the military situation.
But let me tell you the following in advance. This is a highly mobile war for Russia, were she tries, to save as many Russian solider lives, as possible. That’s why, as opposed to WW2, it is NOT about capturing territory, but about destroying the enemy army and its equipment. When this objective is achieved, then there won’t be any physical resistance left, to capture the whole of Ukraine. In the best-case scenario, Ukraine will do, what a country should do when defeated, and hand over the control peacefully.
That’s why the upcoming battle for Kherson is nothing, were I will write specifically about. It is one of many battles, with the intention of destroying the enemy army and not holding ground.
Ukrainian objective:
PR victory to capture Kherson, to extend the funding of the war by Western powers.
Russian objective:
Try to hold the city, as long as reasonable. If the death of too many soldiers would be expected, then withdraw. I highly assume, that it is a trap for Ukraine, and there is a very low probability, that this will be needed, but who knows.
The most important objective for Russia —> Destroy the accumulated Ukrainian army and its equipment.
Even if the Russians would need to withdraw, what I don’t think will be needed, the Ukrainian army will be destroyed as well. Remember, there will be no civilians left in the town. It is essentially a death trap.
As I said, this is only one, of maybe some 4-8 battles, to destroy the rest of the Ukrainian army and its equipment. Then the whole territory will be handed over anyway. That’s why I want to highlight, there is no need to look at maps but at the numbers of remaining Ukrainian soldiers and equipment. When they reach a critical level, then the army will simply fully collapse and that’s it. Over. It doesn’t matter, which colours the maps will have at that time. And many Russian lives will be spared.
Gosh, I wrote already much more, then I wanted :-)
What the next article will be:
My next article will be about economics. To be precise, how it developed after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and where it is heading. Most likely, I will write one article, that will cover economics, BRICS and “The West”. But we will see. In any case, it will be about economics. It is far more important, then the war in Ukraine, because it will frame the war a little more (see my other articles) and show, what is at stake going forward.
Never forget, there will be a whole new world (order) after the war.
Thank you Alek!