Update

Some information, a big "Thank you" and a little break

Hello friends,

I’m happy to be able to make some announcements:

1. Since I activated the “paid subscription” function, which is essentially a way to donate, many readers decided to do so. My team and I, we are very happy about that. And of course motivated. Thank you very much. We absolutley appreciate it.

2. We have been absolutley spot on with our analysis and prediction, about how the war could potentially proceed. Exactly the axis (theatres) that we have defined in this article, have been activated only a few days after we released the article. The offensive has been started exactly, as predicted. Belarus is still to come, but here we said, that there are preconditions for it to start, and these are not fulfilled yet. See Artemovsk (Bakhmut).

3. Moreover, we see, that the end is near. The Ukrainian politics and militaries started yesterday, to kill each other and to prohibit all major, and even local political leaders, to leave the country. Some politicians seem to have fled abroad. Well, the ship is sinking fast. Which is actually a good sign. I pointed several times out, that Russia wants to collapse Ukraine, so it doesn’t need to fight for every village up to Lvov. If the collapse is triggered quickly, many lives on both sides can be spared.

4. Essentially the start of the current large Russian offensive, since General Gerasimov took over, would have triggered the collapse NOW. We can see it on the frontlines in Donbass, that there are no more enough forces to depoloy them on all four activated theatres (accroding to the Black Mountain Analysis definition).

5. Most likely the Donbass front will collapse. Ukraine has been training for weeks and months now a new army abroad. Maybe some 50,000 men. These will be equiped with the new Western weapon deliveries. They were intended, for an offensive, down to Melitopol. This is now essentially off the table. Most likely these troops and equipment now will be used, to plug holes, where they appear. As a reserve force. Either already in Donbass, or, what would make more sense from a strategic point of view, withdraw to the west side of the Dnieper and build new defense lines there. Think of logistics.

6. As already mentioned in articles before, this additional trained troops and the currently forcefully recruited men could potentially prolong the war until summer 2023. Then the war could be over. Which doesn’t mean, that the fighting is over, then. We will see.

7. This trajectory is now very well visible and well described by BMA in several articles. That’s why we decided to make now a break. We will be off, for at least a month. Then we will be back with new articles.

8. One Team Member is working on the creation of a new logo for BMA. It will be released approximatley in March.

9. Last but not least we want to start a short poll. We would like to know, what kind of analysis and articles you like the most. Just as an orientation for the weighing of future articles.