Update

Geopolitics and some Housekeeping

Dear community,

Currently we live in troubled and concerning times. And the situation is escalating everywhere faster than we can react. I hope that it will not get out of control, and I pray for peace. Because of current events, I pray especially for the Palestinian civilians.

Here I want to give a few updates:

• As predicted, the professional Ukrainian army has been largely destroyed, including most of the best equipment that the West has delivered. This has led, as predicted, to the shift from defensive to careful offensive operations by the Russian Army.

• For a long time Russia spared as many Ukrainian soldiers‘ lives as possible in the hope of some kind of settlement. This is over. What I’m observing currently is the massive destruction of Ukrainian infantry, essentially everywhere. On the front lines, as before. But also, on a massive scale, in all kinds of rear echelons. Including the tactical, operational, and strategic rear. The casualties are innumerable.

  This is definitely unsustainable. Since the professional Army is gone, I guess the phase has now started in which Russia will destroy Ukraine’s mobilization potential. Hence, as much infantry as Ukraine is still able to collect from the streets and throw into the frontline.

  Is the end near? Potentially yes, as I have written many times, but it will cost tens or hundreds of thousands of lives, now mainly Ukrainian ones, until its conclusion.

  This is more than regrettable. It is a catastrophe. It is a crime.

• The Middle East is a catastrophe as we speak. All parties are pursuing steps that will eventually lead to a catastrophe for the Palestinian civilians. Let’s go through the steps:

• Hamas started something that served Israel’s prime minister well. He had massive internal problems, and now he has an excuse for massive escalation and thereby diversion from internal problems. The struggle for his survival could cost the lives of hundreds of thousands, or worse if things spiral out of control.

• Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and the other members of the Axis of Resistance are trying to use the situation to defeat Israel.

• Turkiye and Egypt are refusing to accept the Palestinian people to be evacuated because they are afraid that in this case Gaza will be lost forever.

• Israel wants to conduct a ground operation or a bombing campaign in the densely populated Gaza, where two million people live.

• The result is the following: Two million Palestinian civilians are trapped in the open in a killing zone. Thousands of civilians have already been killed, including plenty of children. And this is just the beginning. Hence, whatever goals different parties have, the Palestinians have completely lost and are in the worst position. They have nowhere to go and they are being bombed at the same time.

• This is a massive and unspeakable crime, unfolding before our eyes. It must be stopped immediately before it is too late. For the Palestinians. For their children. For the whole region. For everyone. It has to be stopped, and only external powers can stop it. And they must stop it. (As I write these words, there are indications that such diplomatic interventions are taking place. There is hope.)

• I finished Economics and Empires 5. It is now in editing. Since it is huge and very well researched it will take at least a week for editing, I think. Please share it as much as you can when it is released. It is crucial.

• Since I spent a significant amount of time writing that article, and since I’m ending a lot of engagements which brought me income, to be able to write on BMA, I decided to reactivate the paid subscriptions earlier. I’ll reactivate it with the release of Economics and Empires 5. Please take the opportunity to buy paid subscriptions since I have now less income to be able to run BMA.

• I’ll write Economics and Empires 6, the final part, in November. After that I will write, as announced earlier, more often but therefore smaller updates and news. No big detailed analysis, except if the situation requires it.

• After the release of Economics and Empires 5 I will write an update about Ukraine and the Middle East.

• Thank you to all of my readers for staying with BMA.

• Welcome to all new subscribers. We have seen, and we welcome, a lot of new subscribers these days.