Why Not Zaporizhzhia NPP?
This is a short post to generate ideas from you, the well-informed and well-respected readers of BMA. I will pose a question that (I think) I know the answer to. However, other perspectives on this situation may better explain it, and I look forward to hearing your ideas.
It is simple to pose the question: Why on earth would the Ukraine military open an entirely new front by their incursion into the Kursk Oblast to capture the Kurchatov nuclear power plant (KNPP)? The intent, of course, was ostensibly to control an asset that would allow Ukraine to open negotiations with a more substantial hand that they otherwise would not have. It was never an attempt to generate a Public Relations stunt to enamor the Western press with the swashbuckling picture of Western superior military prowess.
At first glance, an assault on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) could, if successful, significantly enhance Ukraine's bargaining power relative to the Kurchatov NPP. The ZNPP, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, would be an even more valuable bargaining chip than the KNPP.
Think about it: the ZNPP is only tens of kilometers from the Kherson Oblast, which Ukraine militarily controls. The ZNPP is well within artillery range from Kherson, and the attack could be covered easily from well-protected positions. The KNPP is in Russian territory, many kilometers from Ukrainian logistics lines, and it would be difficult to attack and maintain lines of communication over such distances from Ukrainian territory.
The capture of the ZNPP would represent a HUGE win for Ukraine because it would be within the current theater of operations in the conflict, diminishing the perceived strength of the Russian forces.
The question of the day is: Other than the desire for publicity, why did Ukraine attack the Kursk Oblast and not attack the ZNPP?
My opinion, even after the long, hot summer, can be found here. I don't know if anything has changed since this publication. Let me know what you think.
Regards and respect to the BMA family!
Piquet
You are asking two questions:
1) Why does the urkaine not go after ZNPP
and
2) Why Kursk?
I suggest that the answers may not be related directly.
To 1: The ZNPP is well defended. They have been constantly attacking it, and Russia must have created strong fortifications. And even if they could get it, what would they do with it? They would be unable to use it, and threaten with it cannot really be done without also contaminating the Ukraine and its western partners.
To 2: This may have been a test. A test of NATO equipment and strategies. NATO needed to know if in today's world of drones and missiles it was still possible to use standard NATO strategies.
Ukraine HAS been attacking the Zaporozhia NPP for 2 years now, and the compliant western media has been performing all sorts of verbal gymnastics to suggest that Russia has been simultaneously defending the plant and attacking it. Most recently there was the ridiculous story about Russia 'starting fires' on the grounds of the ZNPP. Rafael Grossi of the IAEA has also been covering for Ukraine's attempts to cause a nuclear accident.