Do you have any thoughts about the future of the Nakhchivan corridor?
I'd say it is of geopolitical relevance.
Yet, it is guaranteed by Russia through the CSTO framework.
If Armenia (Traitor Pashinyan) would withdraw from CSTO things could become difficult for Armenia, indeed...
The Armenian people getting so back-stabbed... And they accept it because of a large scale PsyOps operation within Armenia, blaming everything bad, to Russia.
If the CSTO security is gone Armenia is f***ed, as far as I can tell. And Pashinyan is working hard to achieve this and leading "his" people to another disaster/slaughter.
Thank you! I simply fail to understand how can a country in that geopolitical location sign up to the USA plans and how Soros can still have his toxic influence there.
Because Soros and U.S. backed government don’t come open and says “oh we are going to make you loose your traditional ally so you can be destroyed by Aliyev”
They come with double faces, promises of prosperity, being the gate between Russia UE, commerce with both, erase corruption.
They also come with full campaigns in social media, YouTube, massive financing…
This technique of duplicity worked even with Gorbachev who had all the KGB intelligence to support him, imagine how well it works with the average guy.
For the observed eye they are easy to spot (in 2023, in the past was far more difficult), but most of the people don’t dedicate their lives to be informed about politics.
If you have the luck of being in a country with a government that suppress the Soros/CIA stuff like Russia you can be more aware of things.
Also Russia has its medicine in the 90s, and even afterwards there are some Chubais here and there.
Next example of auto destruction of a country you are going to get in Argentina, electing Milei.
The guay who is massively promoted in YouTube, Instagram… who pretend to fight corruption, who fight for the freedom.
A guy that want to dollarise Argentina to end inflation while at the same time stop trading with China or Russia (because they are communist) so prices of Argentina will skyrocket.
How it works? Because of course previous government of Argentina were far from perfect so you can find many things to criticise. Because most of the people don’t understand politics and are not able to difference between Orban and Meloni.
Yes and no. I do agree with you but I am not convinced that people are easy to lie to. I think that it is a propaganda structure that have been erected. But I am still perplexed how could those ‘colour revolutions’ succeed if you look what has been achieved via this neoliberal destruction of economies. Anyway.... Thank you for your reply.
Perhaps the most important problem that Armenians have is that its very significant diaspora (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenians) is strongly pro-Western, while the last-resort saviors is Russia. Thus, the Weltanschauung of this diaspora and the Armenian elites don't fit the reality on the ground.
Thanks to the USSR, Armenia was saved as a republic (subjugated by the Soviets, but a republic at least) after WW1. Otherwise, would have become a cemetery under Turkish rule and/or another version of the Kurds (a nation without a state).
There was no good solution for Artsakh, once Soviet Union dissolved. Armenia cannot change state borders. Even Russia cannot unless ready to fight world war. So, only diplomacy and work with Azerbaijan to preserve lives and some degree of autonomy. Difficult, and above the ability of Armenian politicians.
Thanks for that reasonable comment. Armenia is at a historical crossroads for conflict. They're stuck between bad choices. They're just a pawn. I feel for them.
In a sense although Putin is pictured as evil, as devil incarnate, most people from so called global South do feel, see, a human side of Putin. Putin is a man one could live with. Putin has become what Russia needed and didn't have for 100 years - a ruler with a soul, a ruler who does love his people. A tsar that bolsheviks killed. Only more intelligent, more honest.
Armenian elite is divided between standard emigrant anticommunist, pro US position, stuck in the past, unable to understand they do have to have a firm ally and then do have to talk with Turks, and Azeris.
Having a firm ally - tragic days in front of us will show how much of Armenian position has depended on Russia and Putin.
Psychological and political misjudgement of Putin as a part of Armenian tragedy.
Africa likes strong men. I can't speak definitively for every African nation but my South Africa is probably the most Westernised yet people have voted along colour or tribal lines. Democracy is professed, and politicians wear suits like parrots, but its all a joke. Putin is viewed as a strong leader. Furthermore, the Cold War is remembered as the the Soviet Union and Cuba helping.
White folk control most of the Media, but we're only 7.8% of the population. Consequently, the pro-USA, pro-liberal stance is a mirage.
I don't believe that Putin is without blame. He should have done more for Armenia. I reckon he didn't because of the Caspian trade corridor, and Turkey vs NATO. Pragmatically, Putin chose what benefits Russia first. But that hurt Armenia. Armenia should have realised that there was no win for them, that the Turkish threat via Azerbaijan is existential, and done whatever it could to get Russia more involved, even if it meant stationing troops in Armenia itself. They should have chosen to be 'Soviet' cause its the only option for their preservation. That should have been extra motivated by how NATO used and fucked Ukraine.
The problem is that the population is divided. Any leader making the only decision would likely fall. It's a tough, tough situation.
Sad. Small nation at the crossroads. Armenians suffered terribly when Ottoman empire dissolved and transformed into national state, Turkey. Same fate that a lot of Moslem population in European part of Ottoman empire suffered in the newly established national states of Serbia, Montenegro, expulsion or extermination. In former Ottoman empire, in Asia Minor - today's Turkiye, minorities that have never before been perceived as dangerous, were persecuted, exterminated, Armenians massacred.
Creation of national state typically demands unification around one language, one faith, one nation, and most often than not the process is very destructive for minorities.
Empires are more tolerant.
Dissolution of Soviet Empire, without clear decision on the fate of Russia, left a very volatile situation, still, although Gorbachev was strategically naive, his honesty, humanness was probably one of the main reasons why dissolution finished almost without bloody conflict.
Sore points, Nagorno Karabach, Chechnya, Crimea, would emerge as problems only after years of malignant US influence.
If the UN were the UN, they would have solved all these 'exclave' problems peacefully. Instead, its been used as geopolitical weapon. People don't matter in the power game.
Realist view (e.g. Mearsheimer theoretically, George Kennan and Kissinger as practitioners) means all border, "exclave" problems will be used in geopolitical strategic competition. But, most of these disputes do not have to end in war. European century of peace, after Napoleonic wars, Concert of Europe as an example. In times when strongest states are determined to impose their will on competitors through using small nations as proxys, the responsibility towards own nation, population, becomes even greater for leaders of small nations in difficult circumstances, like Armenia, or Georgia, or Taiwan.
It is difficult to refuse help, difficult to negotiate alliances, but Armenian leaders have definitely missed the chance to diplomatically advance the cause of Artsakh when they were still stronger party. And decided to change sides and ally with the west/US/NATO when this changing alliances will bring them nothing geopolitically.
Even today Armenia exists because of its people readiness to defend the country, but also because Russia will not let another genocide of Christian people, part of Russian world, former Soviet Union, former tsarist Russia, happen. And has nuclear weapons.
Turkey still holds the key to Armenia entering NATO. Path that Armenia has chosen means all demands from Turkey will have to be accepted before any serious western commitment on security matters.
A logical response, and the most important is the religious aspect you mention, directly the origin of State Christianity, but more powerfully indirectly because Putin is excellent in playing off opposing sides so that they're less of a threat to Russia. Armenia would be safer as part of Russia, or if they and Georgia had the same goals, acting in unison.
"Artsakh leadership made a fateful and bitter decision. To continue fighting would be a disaster, and as a consequence the local population could be annihilated"
If only the mad NAZis in Ukraine had the same morals.
many thanks for this good resume, what should has been done is basically history, the Armenians vote for this guy, as you point out this disaster was saw from afar, the question is if NATO would still like to be there.
Against the backdrop of Nagorno-Karabakh, news feeds are full of press headlines about urgent calls from Pashinyan to Biden, however, economic reality largely contradicts the political game of distorting mirrors. How realistic is the assistance of the current American administration to the struggling political regime of Armenia? Let's figure it out
First of all, it must be said that the Armenian economy is very small, its annual budget for 2023 was about $6.5 billion, which is comparable to the income of Rosneft alone. Although the economic activity index increased by 10.4% over the past year compared to the same period last year, actual economic growth was concentrated in Yerevan, where the construction sector (17.2%) and services sector (17.2%) grew due to relocants. 14.9%).
As for real industrial production, its growth in 2022 was only 0.5%, which indicates an actual freeze in industrial production. Although it is worth noting the twofold increase in reimports to Russia.
The actual economic growth occurred due to 10-15 thousand IT relocants, whose average salary ranges from $2,600 to $5,000. The influence of Russian companies in the region is also quite natural.
Firms with capital from Russia have become the largest taxpayers in Armenia - Gazprom Armenia and ZMMK top the list. The top of the largest local enterprises consists entirely of domestic “subsidiaries” or companies of Russian origin: Gazprom Armenia, Geomining Gold, Rusal Armenal, South Caucasus Railway. Subsidiaries structures of domestic giants directly control almost the entire economy of Armenia.
Russia accounts for 70% of remittances from abroad to Armenia, which reached a record $3.5 billion last year (now compare these figures with their official budget)
Moreover, according to the Minister of Economy of Armenia Vahan Kerobyan, since March 16, Armenia and Russia have been using only rubles in mutual trade and have already completely abandoned the dollar and euro.
The question remains open: why in a crisis situation Pashinyan began to call not Putin, but Biden. The question is certainly politically interesting, but economically useless. Perhaps Armenia acts as a bargaining chip for higher rates, today it is difficult to say, however, one fact remains - it doesn’t matter who we call Pashinyan, economic dependencies are important.
I don't understand why everybody is saying "it's the end". Why is it the end? Do people not persist? Where there's a will there's a way. Azerbaijan clearly shows that. It took them 30 years but they got it. If the Armenians want "it" back and don't want to be part of Azerbaijan, maybe they can get that in another 30 years. Obviously, that'll be very complicated because you'd need to run an uprising in the 21st century. However, as Afganistan shows, an uprising might work. Then again, if they get all forcefully moved to Armenia, then you can't run an uprising.
But this whole thing of fighting wars in mountains might be overrated. 30 years ago, Armenians took the land by force and I *think* there was some anti-Azeri ethnic clensing? Now they got repaid for that. So maybe it's time to try something new, namely living in peace with your neighbors.
You were introduced to Transnistria last week. Look up South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the other disputed areas in the region . Regards the former, maybe an idea of the place is in the grim drama set in North Ossetia (Russian republic) called 'Unclenching the Fists" - https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14775666/
Adventurer Levinson Wood amazed me in From Russia to Iran, hiking the Caucus mountains, from Russia through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia . HIGHLY RECOMMENDED.
Bald has a Youtube video, thus immediately accessible, of the even more unknown Sokh , an Uzbek exclave surrounded by Kyrgyzstan - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34XymEDY9Wc
Great article Mike, thank you!
Do you have any thoughts about the future of the Nakhchivan corridor?
I'd say it is of geopolitical relevance.
Yet, it is guaranteed by Russia through the CSTO framework.
If Armenia (Traitor Pashinyan) would withdraw from CSTO things could become difficult for Armenia, indeed...
The Armenian people getting so back-stabbed... And they accept it because of a large scale PsyOps operation within Armenia, blaming everything bad, to Russia.
If the CSTO security is gone Armenia is f***ed, as far as I can tell. And Pashinyan is working hard to achieve this and leading "his" people to another disaster/slaughter.
Tragic!
Thank you! I simply fail to understand how can a country in that geopolitical location sign up to the USA plans and how Soros can still have his toxic influence there.
Because Soros and U.S. backed government don’t come open and says “oh we are going to make you loose your traditional ally so you can be destroyed by Aliyev”
They come with double faces, promises of prosperity, being the gate between Russia UE, commerce with both, erase corruption.
They also come with full campaigns in social media, YouTube, massive financing…
This technique of duplicity worked even with Gorbachev who had all the KGB intelligence to support him, imagine how well it works with the average guy.
For the observed eye they are easy to spot (in 2023, in the past was far more difficult), but most of the people don’t dedicate their lives to be informed about politics.
If you have the luck of being in a country with a government that suppress the Soros/CIA stuff like Russia you can be more aware of things.
Also Russia has its medicine in the 90s, and even afterwards there are some Chubais here and there.
Next example of auto destruction of a country you are going to get in Argentina, electing Milei.
The guay who is massively promoted in YouTube, Instagram… who pretend to fight corruption, who fight for the freedom.
A guy that want to dollarise Argentina to end inflation while at the same time stop trading with China or Russia (because they are communist) so prices of Argentina will skyrocket.
How it works? Because of course previous government of Argentina were far from perfect so you can find many things to criticise. Because most of the people don’t understand politics and are not able to difference between Orban and Meloni.
Because people is easy to be lied.
Yes and no. I do agree with you but I am not convinced that people are easy to lie to. I think that it is a propaganda structure that have been erected. But I am still perplexed how could those ‘colour revolutions’ succeed if you look what has been achieved via this neoliberal destruction of economies. Anyway.... Thank you for your reply.
Great report, thanks.
Perhaps the most important problem that Armenians have is that its very significant diaspora (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenians) is strongly pro-Western, while the last-resort saviors is Russia. Thus, the Weltanschauung of this diaspora and the Armenian elites don't fit the reality on the ground.
Thanks to the USSR, Armenia was saved as a republic (subjugated by the Soviets, but a republic at least) after WW1. Otherwise, would have become a cemetery under Turkish rule and/or another version of the Kurds (a nation without a state).
There was no good solution for Artsakh, once Soviet Union dissolved. Armenia cannot change state borders. Even Russia cannot unless ready to fight world war. So, only diplomacy and work with Azerbaijan to preserve lives and some degree of autonomy. Difficult, and above the ability of Armenian politicians.
Thanks for that reasonable comment. Armenia is at a historical crossroads for conflict. They're stuck between bad choices. They're just a pawn. I feel for them.
In a sense although Putin is pictured as evil, as devil incarnate, most people from so called global South do feel, see, a human side of Putin. Putin is a man one could live with. Putin has become what Russia needed and didn't have for 100 years - a ruler with a soul, a ruler who does love his people. A tsar that bolsheviks killed. Only more intelligent, more honest.
Armenian elite is divided between standard emigrant anticommunist, pro US position, stuck in the past, unable to understand they do have to have a firm ally and then do have to talk with Turks, and Azeris.
Having a firm ally - tragic days in front of us will show how much of Armenian position has depended on Russia and Putin.
Psychological and political misjudgement of Putin as a part of Armenian tragedy.
Africa likes strong men. I can't speak definitively for every African nation but my South Africa is probably the most Westernised yet people have voted along colour or tribal lines. Democracy is professed, and politicians wear suits like parrots, but its all a joke. Putin is viewed as a strong leader. Furthermore, the Cold War is remembered as the the Soviet Union and Cuba helping.
White folk control most of the Media, but we're only 7.8% of the population. Consequently, the pro-USA, pro-liberal stance is a mirage.
I don't believe that Putin is without blame. He should have done more for Armenia. I reckon he didn't because of the Caspian trade corridor, and Turkey vs NATO. Pragmatically, Putin chose what benefits Russia first. But that hurt Armenia. Armenia should have realised that there was no win for them, that the Turkish threat via Azerbaijan is existential, and done whatever it could to get Russia more involved, even if it meant stationing troops in Armenia itself. They should have chosen to be 'Soviet' cause its the only option for their preservation. That should have been extra motivated by how NATO used and fucked Ukraine.
The problem is that the population is divided. Any leader making the only decision would likely fall. It's a tough, tough situation.
Sad. Small nation at the crossroads. Armenians suffered terribly when Ottoman empire dissolved and transformed into national state, Turkey. Same fate that a lot of Moslem population in European part of Ottoman empire suffered in the newly established national states of Serbia, Montenegro, expulsion or extermination. In former Ottoman empire, in Asia Minor - today's Turkiye, minorities that have never before been perceived as dangerous, were persecuted, exterminated, Armenians massacred.
Creation of national state typically demands unification around one language, one faith, one nation, and most often than not the process is very destructive for minorities.
Empires are more tolerant.
Dissolution of Soviet Empire, without clear decision on the fate of Russia, left a very volatile situation, still, although Gorbachev was strategically naive, his honesty, humanness was probably one of the main reasons why dissolution finished almost without bloody conflict.
Sore points, Nagorno Karabach, Chechnya, Crimea, would emerge as problems only after years of malignant US influence.
If the UN were the UN, they would have solved all these 'exclave' problems peacefully. Instead, its been used as geopolitical weapon. People don't matter in the power game.
Realist view (e.g. Mearsheimer theoretically, George Kennan and Kissinger as practitioners) means all border, "exclave" problems will be used in geopolitical strategic competition. But, most of these disputes do not have to end in war. European century of peace, after Napoleonic wars, Concert of Europe as an example. In times when strongest states are determined to impose their will on competitors through using small nations as proxys, the responsibility towards own nation, population, becomes even greater for leaders of small nations in difficult circumstances, like Armenia, or Georgia, or Taiwan.
It is difficult to refuse help, difficult to negotiate alliances, but Armenian leaders have definitely missed the chance to diplomatically advance the cause of Artsakh when they were still stronger party. And decided to change sides and ally with the west/US/NATO when this changing alliances will bring them nothing geopolitically.
Even today Armenia exists because of its people readiness to defend the country, but also because Russia will not let another genocide of Christian people, part of Russian world, former Soviet Union, former tsarist Russia, happen. And has nuclear weapons.
Turkey still holds the key to Armenia entering NATO. Path that Armenia has chosen means all demands from Turkey will have to be accepted before any serious western commitment on security matters.
In short, not very wise.
A logical response, and the most important is the religious aspect you mention, directly the origin of State Christianity, but more powerfully indirectly because Putin is excellent in playing off opposing sides so that they're less of a threat to Russia. Armenia would be safer as part of Russia, or if they and Georgia had the same goals, acting in unison.
"Artsakh leadership made a fateful and bitter decision. To continue fighting would be a disaster, and as a consequence the local population could be annihilated"
If only the mad NAZis in Ukraine had the same morals.
many thanks for this good resume, what should has been done is basically history, the Armenians vote for this guy, as you point out this disaster was saw from afar, the question is if NATO would still like to be there.
Thank You, Mike. Sad all around.
I saw it today at t.me/naebrosh (Telegram channel)
Armenia's U-turn
Against the backdrop of Nagorno-Karabakh, news feeds are full of press headlines about urgent calls from Pashinyan to Biden, however, economic reality largely contradicts the political game of distorting mirrors. How realistic is the assistance of the current American administration to the struggling political regime of Armenia? Let's figure it out
First of all, it must be said that the Armenian economy is very small, its annual budget for 2023 was about $6.5 billion, which is comparable to the income of Rosneft alone. Although the economic activity index increased by 10.4% over the past year compared to the same period last year, actual economic growth was concentrated in Yerevan, where the construction sector (17.2%) and services sector (17.2%) grew due to relocants. 14.9%).
As for real industrial production, its growth in 2022 was only 0.5%, which indicates an actual freeze in industrial production. Although it is worth noting the twofold increase in reimports to Russia.
The actual economic growth occurred due to 10-15 thousand IT relocants, whose average salary ranges from $2,600 to $5,000. The influence of Russian companies in the region is also quite natural.
Firms with capital from Russia have become the largest taxpayers in Armenia - Gazprom Armenia and ZMMK top the list. The top of the largest local enterprises consists entirely of domestic “subsidiaries” or companies of Russian origin: Gazprom Armenia, Geomining Gold, Rusal Armenal, South Caucasus Railway. Subsidiaries structures of domestic giants directly control almost the entire economy of Armenia.
Russia accounts for 70% of remittances from abroad to Armenia, which reached a record $3.5 billion last year (now compare these figures with their official budget)
Moreover, according to the Minister of Economy of Armenia Vahan Kerobyan, since March 16, Armenia and Russia have been using only rubles in mutual trade and have already completely abandoned the dollar and euro.
The question remains open: why in a crisis situation Pashinyan began to call not Putin, but Biden. The question is certainly politically interesting, but economically useless. Perhaps Armenia acts as a bargaining chip for higher rates, today it is difficult to say, however, one fact remains - it doesn’t matter who we call Pashinyan, economic dependencies are important.
I don't understand why everybody is saying "it's the end". Why is it the end? Do people not persist? Where there's a will there's a way. Azerbaijan clearly shows that. It took them 30 years but they got it. If the Armenians want "it" back and don't want to be part of Azerbaijan, maybe they can get that in another 30 years. Obviously, that'll be very complicated because you'd need to run an uprising in the 21st century. However, as Afganistan shows, an uprising might work. Then again, if they get all forcefully moved to Armenia, then you can't run an uprising.
But this whole thing of fighting wars in mountains might be overrated. 30 years ago, Armenians took the land by force and I *think* there was some anti-Azeri ethnic clensing? Now they got repaid for that. So maybe it's time to try something new, namely living in peace with your neighbors.
Thanks for teaching me about a place I never heard of. As an American I was never informed about the Artsakh Republic.
Soros is evill.
Bet you're booking your cheap holiday :)
You were introduced to Transnistria last week. Look up South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the other disputed areas in the region . Regards the former, maybe an idea of the place is in the grim drama set in North Ossetia (Russian republic) called 'Unclenching the Fists" - https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14775666/
Adventurer Levinson Wood amazed me in From Russia to Iran, hiking the Caucus mountains, from Russia through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia . HIGHLY RECOMMENDED.
Bald has a Youtube video, thus immediately accessible, of the even more unknown Sokh , an Uzbek exclave surrounded by Kyrgyzstan - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34XymEDY9Wc
They are not both members of csto.
Thank you Mike.