I want to add some info that can complement and help to reassess some points, You have to take into account that I add a Latin American perspective (coming from a US colony with many cultural similarities).
1) "The big question is how a population of 300 million people is able to control the rest of the world, comprising 8 billion people. How can the US empire control the rest of the world? Through fear."
I think that the fear component may work as the overwhelming one in many regions, but in Latin America (Mexico aside) the force of the US is mostly economic, financial and CULTURAL. Many left-wing populist governments that went semi-autonomous during the 00's (Lula, the Kirchner, Correa, Evo Morales) were defeated by US soft power "prongs": Financial (sanctions, market manipulations) and cultural ones (mass media, social media).
The US counts on the strong image imposed around the world that the standard of living of the postwar USA is the desired way of life: Living in a bungalow with lawn in the suburbs, with 2+ cars in the driveway, having plenty of consumption opportunities around and enjoying a 30-year employment in the same company after which the individuals retire and enjoy traveling and other leisure activities wearing a Hawaiian shirt and a Reflex camera.
Nothing of that is actually true, but many, MANY people (due to movies, fake news and other communication channels) still believe that the average American lives that way, or closely, and they believe that it's feasible to do so for the majority of the population.
Briefly, many upper-middle and upper classes in the US colonies have the idea that the US enjoys the best standard of living and that image helps to block socioeconomic transformations in their countries since they don't feel attracted by other cultural models elsewhere.
2) "And I hope the US will manage the transition away from the empire and become prosperous again."
I doubt that this will happen. The US has a "social contract" in which the illusion of an ever increasing prosperity allows to tolerate the extremely unfair pro-business and pro-1%ers policies that the official and civil institutions protect. The US social cohesion works as long as "the sky is the limit" (or "The American Dream") is still believable.
The US won't have enough indigenous resources to recreate a "New Deal". The country is already developed and the needed transformations don't necessarily imply the traditional path of economic grow in a mass consumption society (investment in internal market's economy -> more consumption -> even more investment and taxes -> repeat).
However, what may positively happen (as I saw in many places in the US) is a massive slow shift in consciousness to a "survival" economy: To live on local products and resources, more frugally but more sustainably. This is evident in "marginal progressive" places such as Burlington, VT. I doubt that NYC or Boston can enter into that equation.
"But the US has a problem. It relies so much on soft GDP factors (like the big tech companies) that it has lost the capability for industrial production. It is nice to have Facebook, Twitter etc. producing big GDP numbers, but unfortunately you can’t eat data. And neither can you eat shares of stocks. You also can’t drive to work with data; you need an affordable car. A USB flash drive won’t take you to work at the factory.
The USA outsourced a huge part of its industrial base to both China and its closest allies."
Not only is America no longer able to make things, America is no longer able to make the things that make the things.
A generation or more of machinists, welders, tool-and-die makers, gear makers, steamfitters, fabricators, boilermakers, high voltage electricians, all skills that cannot be mastered easily and all left to rot.
Wow, epic post, thank you so much again, lots to ponder. I really like the Symbiosis and waiting game points.
One thing, I'm curious that you don't factor in or regard as so important one of the US Empires other great weapons: propaganda. IMO it's their 'hypersonic weapon' and one of the key ways they ensure vassal states stay in line, and it's the key ingredient in all their 'colour revolutions'. It has the population WANTING subservience. Just look at Europe, so many there still think the war with Ukraine is awesome when it's destroying their livelihoods and impoverishing their children.
eg with the bases, they're just backup, most of the population want them there because they've been marinading in Empire propaganda their whole lives. In my mind it's fully a third pillar, and the one that's most likely to have us all hurtling towards WW3 and/or annihilation.
Appreciate any of your thoughts on this, looking forward to your next article!
"Remember this, take it to heart, live by it, die for it if necessary: that our patriotism is medieval, outworn, obsolete; that the modern patriotism, the true patriotism, the only rational patriotism, is loyalty to the Nation all the time, loyalty to the Government when it deserves it."
Holmes, I am an American domestic shorthair (aka, an "American mixed breed cat").
I don't "hate America", but I also freely admit that if America were to sink into the sea today, most of the rest of the world would rejoice at their deliverance.
There is one challenge that I see coming further long the road and is the "paradox of growth": China may face a similar problem that the US faced after the 1970s when the country fully developed and matured. I mean, the investment in infrastructure and other social improvement initiatives cease to provide the multiplying effect in the economy after some time.
4) Israel
Israel shares a similarity with the mid-XX-Century US: A patchwork of cultures and ethnicities glued together only by common myths.
In the US, the illusion (or verification) of economic growth and the existence of external enemies helped to avoid extreme inter-ethnic struggles, It was very common that quarters and zones of US cities consisted of mainly a single ethnic group (Irish, Jews, Blacks, Latinos, etc).
Israel suffers something similar: Hasidim (ultra religious people) and non-religious nationalists don't have a project in common and will always be prone to a mutual civil clash. The external enemy (Arabs) glues them together. Peace, therefore, doesn't serve for Israeli civil cohesion.
Add to that the end of generous subsidies from American and European Jewish communities and a harder stance in the international arena will work definitely against Israel.
Maybe China will "save" Israel by managing the Haifa port and helping it integrate into the BRI. However, the old Israel will never come back (the country will depopulate and a significant redrawing of borders will be unavoidable).
5) Arab States
The Arab/Muslim societies are organized different ways than in Western or Christian countries, where clans play a significant role. The inter-clan disputes have been very common even before the Westerners conquered the Middle East. This, added to different interpretations of Islam, helped to ignite serious clashed among clans, among religious alignments (Shia-Sunni) and countries.
Even though the Western interventions added fuel to the fire (such as the Sykes-Pikot pact), they didn't started it. What I mean is that we cannot simplify this situation as malign Westerners creating strife among Arabs when they already had strong ones before.
very busy, toke me a couple of days to finish it, as always great piece. very complicated staff you did here, several multi-layer factors, I was really impress what china did with Iran and Saudi Arabia (funny thing the Chines did, signing the treaties when Ursula and Macron where there, awesome trolling), the Yemen war ended automatically, also Russia is working on the Sirian-EveryOneElse problem very efficiently, also Afghanistan is coming to the table. !!Afghanistan!!, some lose ends still remain, but the bear is flexing the soft power muscle and is doing awesome. Also I'm kind of angry at you, no Cuba in the list of sanctioned, come on! we hold the second more large sanctioned period in history, North Korea win, well they actually kill american troops.
The US system is designed to outdo all other states in ruthlessness and amorality; wining is all. This works, and depends on, those calling the shots never having skin in the game: neither their wealth nor their lives are ever actually on the line (only the lives of soldiers and other "commoner" proxies). Otherwise, their decadence, cowardice, and weakness would induce them to beat a hasty retreat and offer terms. That's why I think all the signs they give of willingness to escalate to the point of nuclear war, starting with tactical nukes, are pure bluff. They are all too aware that they can be targeted in their boltholes: Manhattan, the Hamptons, Martha's Vineyard, Belgravia, Ile St. Louis, Monaco, and all the rest. And that's why, if Russia and China are smart, they'll be prepared, if and when necessary, to call the US's nuclear bluff.
Thank you so much Aleks. This reinforces my belief that the American people (and people everywhere) need to think and work locally since everything else is out of our control. In the US, many states are creating bullion depositories, thinking about state banks, creating legislation to protect their citizens against damaging federal laws, etc. Worldwide we have enormous issues regarding factory farming that is causing environmental issues, corruption of food along with food lobbying that is promoting damaging diets which in and of itself is causing massive health issues and weakening the human population. If we take care of our local home front, then hopefully we will all be prepared for the global changes that are inevitable.
This is overall a very interesting article but I would like to counterpose it to one glaring mistake:
"Russia’s far eastern territories and their populations are historically Asian rather than European/Russian. The Soviets tried to solve this “problem” through deportations, but there are still regions with mainly ethnic Asians."
The Turkic indigenous siberans living in Sibera such as Сахалар & Тывалар have nothing to do with China or us Han Chinese & are foreigners.
I could not help but laugh out loud when I read this, at this ignorant implied reasoning that China may have irredentist claims to Siberia based upon "Asians" living there & Chinese are " also Asians".
The single biggest compliment I can give is that each and every one of your articles provokes serious thought about what you are writing about.
A rare gift to possess as a writer or analyst.
Thank you
Excellent article, as usual.
I want to add some info that can complement and help to reassess some points, You have to take into account that I add a Latin American perspective (coming from a US colony with many cultural similarities).
1) "The big question is how a population of 300 million people is able to control the rest of the world, comprising 8 billion people. How can the US empire control the rest of the world? Through fear."
I think that the fear component may work as the overwhelming one in many regions, but in Latin America (Mexico aside) the force of the US is mostly economic, financial and CULTURAL. Many left-wing populist governments that went semi-autonomous during the 00's (Lula, the Kirchner, Correa, Evo Morales) were defeated by US soft power "prongs": Financial (sanctions, market manipulations) and cultural ones (mass media, social media).
The US counts on the strong image imposed around the world that the standard of living of the postwar USA is the desired way of life: Living in a bungalow with lawn in the suburbs, with 2+ cars in the driveway, having plenty of consumption opportunities around and enjoying a 30-year employment in the same company after which the individuals retire and enjoy traveling and other leisure activities wearing a Hawaiian shirt and a Reflex camera.
Nothing of that is actually true, but many, MANY people (due to movies, fake news and other communication channels) still believe that the average American lives that way, or closely, and they believe that it's feasible to do so for the majority of the population.
Briefly, many upper-middle and upper classes in the US colonies have the idea that the US enjoys the best standard of living and that image helps to block socioeconomic transformations in their countries since they don't feel attracted by other cultural models elsewhere.
2) "And I hope the US will manage the transition away from the empire and become prosperous again."
I doubt that this will happen. The US has a "social contract" in which the illusion of an ever increasing prosperity allows to tolerate the extremely unfair pro-business and pro-1%ers policies that the official and civil institutions protect. The US social cohesion works as long as "the sky is the limit" (or "The American Dream") is still believable.
The US won't have enough indigenous resources to recreate a "New Deal". The country is already developed and the needed transformations don't necessarily imply the traditional path of economic grow in a mass consumption society (investment in internal market's economy -> more consumption -> even more investment and taxes -> repeat).
However, what may positively happen (as I saw in many places in the US) is a massive slow shift in consciousness to a "survival" economy: To live on local products and resources, more frugally but more sustainably. This is evident in "marginal progressive" places such as Burlington, VT. I doubt that NYC or Boston can enter into that equation.
(continues)
"But the US has a problem. It relies so much on soft GDP factors (like the big tech companies) that it has lost the capability for industrial production. It is nice to have Facebook, Twitter etc. producing big GDP numbers, but unfortunately you can’t eat data. And neither can you eat shares of stocks. You also can’t drive to work with data; you need an affordable car. A USB flash drive won’t take you to work at the factory.
The USA outsourced a huge part of its industrial base to both China and its closest allies."
Not only is America no longer able to make things, America is no longer able to make the things that make the things.
A generation or more of machinists, welders, tool-and-die makers, gear makers, steamfitters, fabricators, boilermakers, high voltage electricians, all skills that cannot be mastered easily and all left to rot.
Wow, epic post, thank you so much again, lots to ponder. I really like the Symbiosis and waiting game points.
One thing, I'm curious that you don't factor in or regard as so important one of the US Empires other great weapons: propaganda. IMO it's their 'hypersonic weapon' and one of the key ways they ensure vassal states stay in line, and it's the key ingredient in all their 'colour revolutions'. It has the population WANTING subservience. Just look at Europe, so many there still think the war with Ukraine is awesome when it's destroying their livelihoods and impoverishing their children.
eg with the bases, they're just backup, most of the population want them there because they've been marinading in Empire propaganda their whole lives. In my mind it's fully a third pillar, and the one that's most likely to have us all hurtling towards WW3 and/or annihilation.
Appreciate any of your thoughts on this, looking forward to your next article!
"Remember this, take it to heart, live by it, die for it if necessary: that our patriotism is medieval, outworn, obsolete; that the modern patriotism, the true patriotism, the only rational patriotism, is loyalty to the Nation all the time, loyalty to the Government when it deserves it."
--Mark Twain
Holmes, I am an American domestic shorthair (aka, an "American mixed breed cat").
I don't "hate America", but I also freely admit that if America were to sink into the sea today, most of the rest of the world would rejoice at their deliverance.
Don't worry about our precious feelings.
Fascinating analysis.
Your intellectual capacity and ability to convey complex issues in a relatively concise and understandable manner is masterful.
I learned more from your writings than from history classes in school (ok, I guess maybe I wasn’t an ace student).
Much respect.
(continues)
3) "China’s Domestic Challenges"
There is one challenge that I see coming further long the road and is the "paradox of growth": China may face a similar problem that the US faced after the 1970s when the country fully developed and matured. I mean, the investment in infrastructure and other social improvement initiatives cease to provide the multiplying effect in the economy after some time.
4) Israel
Israel shares a similarity with the mid-XX-Century US: A patchwork of cultures and ethnicities glued together only by common myths.
In the US, the illusion (or verification) of economic growth and the existence of external enemies helped to avoid extreme inter-ethnic struggles, It was very common that quarters and zones of US cities consisted of mainly a single ethnic group (Irish, Jews, Blacks, Latinos, etc).
Israel suffers something similar: Hasidim (ultra religious people) and non-religious nationalists don't have a project in common and will always be prone to a mutual civil clash. The external enemy (Arabs) glues them together. Peace, therefore, doesn't serve for Israeli civil cohesion.
Add to that the end of generous subsidies from American and European Jewish communities and a harder stance in the international arena will work definitely against Israel.
Maybe China will "save" Israel by managing the Haifa port and helping it integrate into the BRI. However, the old Israel will never come back (the country will depopulate and a significant redrawing of borders will be unavoidable).
5) Arab States
The Arab/Muslim societies are organized different ways than in Western or Christian countries, where clans play a significant role. The inter-clan disputes have been very common even before the Westerners conquered the Middle East. This, added to different interpretations of Islam, helped to ignite serious clashed among clans, among religious alignments (Shia-Sunni) and countries.
Even though the Western interventions added fuel to the fire (such as the Sykes-Pikot pact), they didn't started it. What I mean is that we cannot simplify this situation as malign Westerners creating strife among Arabs when they already had strong ones before.
very busy, toke me a couple of days to finish it, as always great piece. very complicated staff you did here, several multi-layer factors, I was really impress what china did with Iran and Saudi Arabia (funny thing the Chines did, signing the treaties when Ursula and Macron where there, awesome trolling), the Yemen war ended automatically, also Russia is working on the Sirian-EveryOneElse problem very efficiently, also Afghanistan is coming to the table. !!Afghanistan!!, some lose ends still remain, but the bear is flexing the soft power muscle and is doing awesome. Also I'm kind of angry at you, no Cuba in the list of sanctioned, come on! we hold the second more large sanctioned period in history, North Korea win, well they actually kill american troops.
The US system is designed to outdo all other states in ruthlessness and amorality; wining is all. This works, and depends on, those calling the shots never having skin in the game: neither their wealth nor their lives are ever actually on the line (only the lives of soldiers and other "commoner" proxies). Otherwise, their decadence, cowardice, and weakness would induce them to beat a hasty retreat and offer terms. That's why I think all the signs they give of willingness to escalate to the point of nuclear war, starting with tactical nukes, are pure bluff. They are all too aware that they can be targeted in their boltholes: Manhattan, the Hamptons, Martha's Vineyard, Belgravia, Ile St. Louis, Monaco, and all the rest. And that's why, if Russia and China are smart, they'll be prepared, if and when necessary, to call the US's nuclear bluff.
Thank You Sir.
Just a simple question...
What can we little peasants in west europe do?
Thank you so much Aleks. This reinforces my belief that the American people (and people everywhere) need to think and work locally since everything else is out of our control. In the US, many states are creating bullion depositories, thinking about state banks, creating legislation to protect their citizens against damaging federal laws, etc. Worldwide we have enormous issues regarding factory farming that is causing environmental issues, corruption of food along with food lobbying that is promoting damaging diets which in and of itself is causing massive health issues and weakening the human population. If we take care of our local home front, then hopefully we will all be prepared for the global changes that are inevitable.
Your maps of russian occupation in east Europe are clearly exaggerated.
You really shouldn't allow your frustration with western invasions of Russia influence your analysis.
Perfekt as always ! Köszönöm szépen !
First, let me make you my best compliments: bravo, bis!
That said, I am quite blackpilled about that "BRICS currency": it looks a lot like Bretton Woods over and over again.
That is, we are stuck in a world:
1. Chained to a cross of gold/commodity money and so recession, or
2. Destined to a Yuan-standard and/or a (cold?) War of the Petrodollar succession.
This is overall a very interesting article but I would like to counterpose it to one glaring mistake:
"Russia’s far eastern territories and their populations are historically Asian rather than European/Russian. The Soviets tried to solve this “problem” through deportations, but there are still regions with mainly ethnic Asians."
The Turkic indigenous siberans living in Sibera such as Сахалар & Тывалар have nothing to do with China or us Han Chinese & are foreigners.
I could not help but laugh out loud when I read this, at this ignorant implied reasoning that China may have irredentist claims to Siberia based upon "Asians" living there & Chinese are " also Asians".