Aleks, I was about to say the same thing as Steve. I have many thoughts and working them through right now before a larger comment that I hope will provoke more thoughts for you too.
For now I will say that many of what in this article I agree with it's almost as if you were in my head, some that was surprising and new, with a few points that I have a different view.
I want to add some info that can complement and help to reassess some points, You have to take into account that I add a Latin American perspective (coming from a US colony with many cultural similarities).
1) "The big question is how a population of 300 million people is able to control the rest of the world, comprising 8 billion people. How can the US empire control the rest of the world? Through fear."
I think that the fear component may work as the overwhelming one in many regions, but in Latin America (Mexico aside) the force of the US is mostly economic, financial and CULTURAL. Many left-wing populist governments that went semi-autonomous during the 00's (Lula, the Kirchner, Correa, Evo Morales) were defeated by US soft power "prongs": Financial (sanctions, market manipulations) and cultural ones (mass media, social media).
The US counts on the strong image imposed around the world that the standard of living of the postwar USA is the desired way of life: Living in a bungalow with lawn in the suburbs, with 2+ cars in the driveway, having plenty of consumption opportunities around and enjoying a 30-year employment in the same company after which the individuals retire and enjoy traveling and other leisure activities wearing a Hawaiian shirt and a Reflex camera.
Nothing of that is actually true, but many, MANY people (due to movies, fake news and other communication channels) still believe that the average American lives that way, or closely, and they believe that it's feasible to do so for the majority of the population.
Briefly, many upper-middle and upper classes in the US colonies have the idea that the US enjoys the best standard of living and that image helps to block socioeconomic transformations in their countries since they don't feel attracted by other cultural models elsewhere.
2) "And I hope the US will manage the transition away from the empire and become prosperous again."
I doubt that this will happen. The US has a "social contract" in which the illusion of an ever increasing prosperity allows to tolerate the extremely unfair pro-business and pro-1%ers policies that the official and civil institutions protect. The US social cohesion works as long as "the sky is the limit" (or "The American Dream") is still believable.
The US won't have enough indigenous resources to recreate a "New Deal". The country is already developed and the needed transformations don't necessarily imply the traditional path of economic grow in a mass consumption society (investment in internal market's economy -> more consumption -> even more investment and taxes -> repeat).
However, what may positively happen (as I saw in many places in the US) is a massive slow shift in consciousness to a "survival" economy: To live on local products and resources, more frugally but more sustainably. This is evident in "marginal progressive" places such as Burlington, VT. I doubt that NYC or Boston can enter into that equation.
I do not disagree with you on much of what you say. However, this statement:
"The US won't have enough indigenous resources to recreate a "New Deal". The country is already developed ..."
is not true. The natural resources of the US are still extensive (as an example, search "Green River oil". Three trillion barrels of recoverable crude oil). Economical now, probably not. And the societal/political factors makes that unfeasible at present. Also, it is easier to plunder foreign resources before using your own indigenous resources.
But in the case where the SHTF, the resources exist, and they are recoverable. Will that take a major upheaval of society in North America? Of course! But that eventuality is now a distinct possibility. I hope that an outcome like that will be concomitant with cooperation of the US with other countries instead of (attempted) domination by the US.
I get your point. I thought about the shale oil and I think that it becomes unfeasible at very high volumes. The experience of the tar sands in Alberta shows the very difficult handling of polluted waters used to get the energy-rich substances, and this irreversible affected the Cree community in Northern Alberta.
Tar sands and shale gas/oil are obtained in processes that could be described as "squeezing a sponge": The use of physical methods to dislodge the energy materials from a lattice (br that shale or a lattice of sand/rock formations), usually steam/water that is very difficult to get rid of thereafter.
Don't confuse GR shale oil (Green River) with tar sands (Canada). I was personally involved with transportation of WCS (Western Canadian Select) oil blend from Canada to the U.S. That product typically contains significant amounts of sand which ultimately required regular cleaning of barges and railcars. And WCS is an upgraded type of Canadian tar sands oil.
Shale formations are a different beast, and do not have that problem (see Bakken crude, for example). I am not implying that GR is like Bakken oil, (the GR oil is in the form of kerogen, a solid under normal conditions). In fact, technology today cannot cleanly separate the oil GR from the solids. However, as energy becomes more scarce, economics of methods like pyrolysis or Thermal conversion become more attractive. Time will tell.
"But the US has a problem. It relies so much on soft GDP factors (like the big tech companies) that it has lost the capability for industrial production. It is nice to have Facebook, Twitter etc. producing big GDP numbers, but unfortunately you can’t eat data. And neither can you eat shares of stocks. You also can’t drive to work with data; you need an affordable car. A USB flash drive won’t take you to work at the factory.
The USA outsourced a huge part of its industrial base to both China and its closest allies."
Not only is America no longer able to make things, America is no longer able to make the things that make the things.
A generation or more of machinists, welders, tool-and-die makers, gear makers, steamfitters, fabricators, boilermakers, high voltage electricians, all skills that cannot be mastered easily and all left to rot.
Watch this and your mind will be blown. Henry J. Kaiser turning a mudflat into five shipyards and surrounding infrastructure, then cranking out cargo ships faster than the Axis could make torpedoes. All in a few years.
Think about the class implications of that statement, or, or that matter, "Defund The Police".
To the PMC, what that slogan means is "take money from the undeserving (blue-collar, unionized and famously unwoke cops) and give to the deserving (white collar, college educated social workers who can be counted to uphold the latest PC tenets).
Yes, the US economy has transitioned from production to complince.
This needs to change back, doesn't it?
Compliance is fine for the seat of a wealthy empire, extracting tribute from the world, but America the free-country will need production. Productive people have different social patterns, too. I miss that egalitarian normalcy these days.
I graduated high school in 1976, the peak-egalitarian year for US paychecks.
Wow, epic post, thank you so much again, lots to ponder. I really like the Symbiosis and waiting game points.
One thing, I'm curious that you don't factor in or regard as so important one of the US Empires other great weapons: propaganda. IMO it's their 'hypersonic weapon' and one of the key ways they ensure vassal states stay in line, and it's the key ingredient in all their 'colour revolutions'. It has the population WANTING subservience. Just look at Europe, so many there still think the war with Ukraine is awesome when it's destroying their livelihoods and impoverishing their children.
eg with the bases, they're just backup, most of the population want them there because they've been marinading in Empire propaganda their whole lives. In my mind it's fully a third pillar, and the one that's most likely to have us all hurtling towards WW3 and/or annihilation.
Appreciate any of your thoughts on this, looking forward to your next article!
Re your excellent analysis in empires 3 (no idea how I missed it but I thought I'd already read it)... I agree going into it too much again would be superfluous. However to my mind the propaganda complex is going to play a huge role in how things play out in Asia (and everywhere), so still find it curious it's not specifically referred to here as a factor or pillar. With this tool alone the dying empire can/will cause a lot of havoc.
And I'm not so convinced the mind control will break down after Ukraine as it's not really about the information, that's just the icing on the cake, the cake is the underlying assumptions that are so heavily embedded in how we think about things... the deep yearning to believe something other than our lying eyes tell us, the fundamental assumptions about how the world works that we've been trained in since birth, the relentless psychological abuse we've been subjected to. Ukraine falling could in fact make things worse.
I hope you're right and my fears are unrealised though :).
Mind you I do live in Australia so my view is somewhat skewed, we're about as heavily marinated in Empire propaganda as it gets.
"I am relatively familiar with the sentiments in my native Croatia, which is a catholic nation that's never been particularly close with Russia. There, probably three out of four people today sympathize with the Russian side. This impression is shared by many people I spoke with there. A number of informal polls I encountered on social media during the recent months corroborate this on a broader basis.
(...)
A few weeks ago, a person who works for NATO in one of its member nations wrote me an email. They told me that NATO was keenly monitoring the public sentiment among its member states. Here's what they wrote (word for word, including the emphasis): "I know from my job (military) that Roumanians, Moldovans, Bulgarians, Hungarians, Slovakians, Cypriots and all the Balkans are circa 3 out of 4 and above with Russia. Austrians, Italians, Czechs, Spaniards and French around 2 out of 3.""
Hi, I believe Alex regards propaganda in.the context of media as a soft power.
I kind of agree, propaganda has to be backed by a hard power in and of itself without that backing its relative power is limited, see any none nuclear country and how the view of it differs to those of a nuclear power for example.
The two pillars that Alex goes into great depth analysing are increased in power by the effect of control over the media narrative (the essence of what propaganda is in truth).
But propaganda NEEDS a hard power behind it in order for it to be effective.
Take the UK as an example. It lost its hard power sometime around Suez, post that date the effect of its propaganda reduced massively and id say oy remains as an adjunct tied in to the USAs hard power backing it up now.
In part its why I believe Europe and the anglosphere are hitching their wagons so tightly to the US, they are trying by being a loyal vasal state to maintain a lost relevance and influence by doing the bidding of a country with that hard power.
Thanks. I guess I see them as very much symbiotic, rather than soft needing to be backed by hard. eg Hard power is no where near as effective without good propaganda, just like as you point out Soft is stronger with a big stick behind it.
I'd say the main reason Europe is hitching to the US so tightly is because their brains have been so totally marinated in Empire propaganda, their world view so totally conditioned (which is the real genius, the information comes and goes) that there seems no other alternative. It's their perception of US hard power which is the key thing, not the hard power itself.
"Remember this, take it to heart, live by it, die for it if necessary: that our patriotism is medieval, outworn, obsolete; that the modern patriotism, the true patriotism, the only rational patriotism, is loyalty to the Nation all the time, loyalty to the Government when it deserves it."
Holmes, I am an American domestic shorthair (aka, an "American mixed breed cat").
I don't "hate America", but I also freely admit that if America were to sink into the sea today, most of the rest of the world would rejoice at their deliverance.
Trust me, even if you were a good student, this stuff wasn't taught there! So we had to wait for uncensored media of global reach to get the full picture!
There is one challenge that I see coming further long the road and is the "paradox of growth": China may face a similar problem that the US faced after the 1970s when the country fully developed and matured. I mean, the investment in infrastructure and other social improvement initiatives cease to provide the multiplying effect in the economy after some time.
4) Israel
Israel shares a similarity with the mid-XX-Century US: A patchwork of cultures and ethnicities glued together only by common myths.
In the US, the illusion (or verification) of economic growth and the existence of external enemies helped to avoid extreme inter-ethnic struggles, It was very common that quarters and zones of US cities consisted of mainly a single ethnic group (Irish, Jews, Blacks, Latinos, etc).
Israel suffers something similar: Hasidim (ultra religious people) and non-religious nationalists don't have a project in common and will always be prone to a mutual civil clash. The external enemy (Arabs) glues them together. Peace, therefore, doesn't serve for Israeli civil cohesion.
Add to that the end of generous subsidies from American and European Jewish communities and a harder stance in the international arena will work definitely against Israel.
Maybe China will "save" Israel by managing the Haifa port and helping it integrate into the BRI. However, the old Israel will never come back (the country will depopulate and a significant redrawing of borders will be unavoidable).
5) Arab States
The Arab/Muslim societies are organized different ways than in Western or Christian countries, where clans play a significant role. The inter-clan disputes have been very common even before the Westerners conquered the Middle East. This, added to different interpretations of Islam, helped to ignite serious clashed among clans, among religious alignments (Shia-Sunni) and countries.
Even though the Western interventions added fuel to the fire (such as the Sykes-Pikot pact), they didn't started it. What I mean is that we cannot simplify this situation as malign Westerners creating strife among Arabs when they already had strong ones before.
But I assume that China will be able to carry on for some decades since it has hundreds of millions of people that are still living in "nothing". Investment in infrastructures and big/new cities are a investment to create a potential for these people to develop. China is planing in decades. Presumably even in a longer term than Russia. Which is already very long.
There is still a lot to develop. The question is, will China be able to exploit these potentials or not.
This is something that I can't say. Maybe not. I think India has more potential considering the next decades/centuries. But who knows.
4)
Yes. And I would wish that the WW2 winners would have helped here better to bring in the cohesion without an external enemy. They didn't. After what happened to the Jews in WW2 they would have deserved this support by the world. (I don't blame the West here. I explicitly blame the Soviet Union as well).
But yes, my hope is also that China manages to integrate Israel. I hope and pray for that. It would be very beneficial for Israel as well.
Did you hear my interview with Scott Ritter regarding this topic?
5)
Well, I think we need to distinguish. Yes, you are right. If you consider the single Arab nations they might not work well as single nations. Because of clans etc.
But always when they have been managed in any kind of empires they worked well together.
The West broke up the Ottoman Empire. But it worked for centuries. Yes, it didn't include all Arab states. But the ones that were included worked well within this empire.
But again, I don't see the big differences in our views.
Edit: Not that I consider it a bad thing that the Ottoman Empire broke... We Serbs are very grateful for this, since we were occupied for 500 years.
I know very little about the Ottomans, but I think that a key of their success and their long existence was tolerance. I mean, the Pachas were happy if they collected their levies from their vassals and let them organize as they pleased. It didn't prevent nationalistic revolutions (such as the Greek independence in the 1820s), but certainly delayed it.
Now, this tolerance is relative. I remember the Meteora temples on top of steep cliffs, where Christian Greeks had to build their monasteries so as to not be persecuted on the ground.
I guess that it brought "flexibility" to the whole socio-economic structure, curiously something very similar to what China tries to do (they will do business with Brazil regardless if Lula or Bolsonaro are in power, and they won't mingle unless a critical issue arises, such as Macri in Argentina attempting to cancel the 2 hydroelectric projects in Patagonia and having to backtrack after warnings from Beijing).
I wish I had time to listen to long videos. I can barely read, contribute and cope with ordinary life. I often miss important contributions from Martianov, Lira, the Duran, yourself, etc, etc.
very busy, toke me a couple of days to finish it, as always great piece. very complicated staff you did here, several multi-layer factors, I was really impress what china did with Iran and Saudi Arabia (funny thing the Chines did, signing the treaties when Ursula and Macron where there, awesome trolling), the Yemen war ended automatically, also Russia is working on the Sirian-EveryOneElse problem very efficiently, also Afghanistan is coming to the table. !!Afghanistan!!, some lose ends still remain, but the bear is flexing the soft power muscle and is doing awesome. Also I'm kind of angry at you, no Cuba in the list of sanctioned, come on! we hold the second more large sanctioned period in history, North Korea win, well they actually kill american troops.
The US system is designed to outdo all other states in ruthlessness and amorality; wining is all. This works, and depends on, those calling the shots never having skin in the game: neither their wealth nor their lives are ever actually on the line (only the lives of soldiers and other "commoner" proxies). Otherwise, their decadence, cowardice, and weakness would induce them to beat a hasty retreat and offer terms. That's why I think all the signs they give of willingness to escalate to the point of nuclear war, starting with tactical nukes, are pure bluff. They are all too aware that they can be targeted in their boltholes: Manhattan, the Hamptons, Martha's Vineyard, Belgravia, Ile St. Louis, Monaco, and all the rest. And that's why, if Russia and China are smart, they'll be prepared, if and when necessary, to call the US's nuclear bluff.
I helped answer the question, which I am working on myself.
I have just been given a link to your site by a research librarian (special powers) friend.
I have read this essay in full and carefully.
I am in about as complete agreement as is possible, given the vageries of language.
Your English is excellent, without any qualifiers.
Surplus Energy Economics looks at the inevitable decline in cheap energy, which resource appears to have peaked in the second half of 2019, around the time of the "repo crisis" in the $US financial system. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
Michael Hudson often looks at the debt-overhang problem, and is an economic historian, as well as having devised the "petrodollar" in his book "Super Imperialism", which motivated Kissinger/Nixon to strike the deal with King Faisal of Saudi Arabia.
Hudson and Ellen Brown advocate banking as a public utility, like the Bank Of North Dakota. "Profits" feed the public purse, and loans are made, to improve the economy of the public entity/state, to borrowers with good prospects of repayment. This nourishes a healthy economy, a real-economy, rather than parasitizing and cannibalizing real economy, to keep up with interest-service-growth, as global financial neoliberal capitalism is now doing.
Global neoliberal financial capitalism is effectiely extracting monopoly rents at the same time as cheap fuel is in decline. This must break sooner. This is also what you foresee. It is possible to foresee it without the energy analysis, but I think the energy analysis is fundamental, and helps.
I don't know how much Hudson considers it, but he is obviously aware of it. He sees things through a Marxian analytical perspective, which is fine, as far as it goes.
Keynes must have also understood it, since the peak-good-coal that the UK experienced during WW-1 contributed to Italy aligning with Germany after that, and ultimately to the decline of empire. There were other factors.
FDR wanted the global reserve currency, and to end the empire. FDR died-funny, and the empire of London largely transferred to New York/Washington (much simplified, of course).
Grow vegetabes and secure your needs in food, water, fuel, shelter, and a community that is right-sized, without history of violence between factions. This is not a time to fught, but a time to survive (IMHO).
Thank you so much Aleks. This reinforces my belief that the American people (and people everywhere) need to think and work locally since everything else is out of our control. In the US, many states are creating bullion depositories, thinking about state banks, creating legislation to protect their citizens against damaging federal laws, etc. Worldwide we have enormous issues regarding factory farming that is causing environmental issues, corruption of food along with food lobbying that is promoting damaging diets which in and of itself is causing massive health issues and weakening the human population. If we take care of our local home front, then hopefully we will all be prepared for the global changes that are inevitable.
I, of course, do not think Russia will go beyond Ukraine. Nothing in the russians' behaviour or statements indicates this.
On the other hand, you have proven your skill on geopolitical analysis.
And, if events escalate far enough, it could come to this indeed. Such escalation implies a high probability of nuclear weapons being used, though. I truly hope things will not go that far.
And it will be the topic of Economics and Empires 6.
I'm afraid you will need to wait a little bit until you get my explanation. But you certainly WILL get my explanation.
Just a small hint:
The future is not yet written. I see several scenarios how the future BRICS currency could look like.
But what I know until now is, that it is something completely new. No "Bretton Woods". But yes, it will have elements of Bretton Woods. But let's wait and see. I will write the article in several months so maybe I will get many more information until then.
Pardon me if I try to explain my humble opinion... I'm old enough to remember when we had two competing blocks that anyway had commercial relations and exchanges.
Will the two new blocks try to interact someway economically? If so, they will need something apolitical both will appreciate and use like exchange: gold? gold blockchained? silver? a basket of commodities?
Glaziev?
If not, my fear that they will simply resort to ww3, hope not.
Such an accomodation could be useful for internal BRICS commercial Balance Of Payment as well.
And... will we in the west be ready to have on hand such physical resources to use after decades of disparaging the shiny pet rock and the lesser cousin?
I am scared thinking that the master evils (let's call them the Mardukians of London...) are the fiat money printers, being that the source of their almost limitless power, will they accept resigning such power?
And we are but their slaves...
My dream/dread...
the BRICS asking payment for their commodities we need in silver (not gold for a bunch of reasons), at the price determined in LBMA: how they will game that price?: too low, they will send away all they have;
too high, They will crash their/our currency going to weimar reloaded.
This is overall a very interesting article but I would like to counterpose it to one glaring mistake:
"Russia’s far eastern territories and their populations are historically Asian rather than European/Russian. The Soviets tried to solve this “problem” through deportations, but there are still regions with mainly ethnic Asians."
The Turkic indigenous siberans living in Sibera such as Сахалар & Тывалар have nothing to do with China or us Han Chinese & are foreigners.
I could not help but laugh out loud when I read this, at this ignorant implied reasoning that China may have irredentist claims to Siberia based upon "Asians" living there & Chinese are " also Asians".
The single biggest compliment I can give is that each and every one of your articles provokes serious thought about what you are writing about.
A rare gift to possess as a writer or analyst.
Thank you
Thank you Steve.
That is exactly the purpose of this blog.
The get the people thinking about the topics that I write about.
I know that I can be impossible right with everything. But as long as the people using my articles to form an own opinion, I did everything right.
Aleks, I was about to say the same thing as Steve. I have many thoughts and working them through right now before a larger comment that I hope will provoke more thoughts for you too.
For now I will say that many of what in this article I agree with it's almost as if you were in my head, some that was surprising and new, with a few points that I have a different view.
Thank you for this.
Thank you for this great comment. I appreciate it and of course your further feedback.
Excellent article, as usual.
I want to add some info that can complement and help to reassess some points, You have to take into account that I add a Latin American perspective (coming from a US colony with many cultural similarities).
1) "The big question is how a population of 300 million people is able to control the rest of the world, comprising 8 billion people. How can the US empire control the rest of the world? Through fear."
I think that the fear component may work as the overwhelming one in many regions, but in Latin America (Mexico aside) the force of the US is mostly economic, financial and CULTURAL. Many left-wing populist governments that went semi-autonomous during the 00's (Lula, the Kirchner, Correa, Evo Morales) were defeated by US soft power "prongs": Financial (sanctions, market manipulations) and cultural ones (mass media, social media).
The US counts on the strong image imposed around the world that the standard of living of the postwar USA is the desired way of life: Living in a bungalow with lawn in the suburbs, with 2+ cars in the driveway, having plenty of consumption opportunities around and enjoying a 30-year employment in the same company after which the individuals retire and enjoy traveling and other leisure activities wearing a Hawaiian shirt and a Reflex camera.
Nothing of that is actually true, but many, MANY people (due to movies, fake news and other communication channels) still believe that the average American lives that way, or closely, and they believe that it's feasible to do so for the majority of the population.
Briefly, many upper-middle and upper classes in the US colonies have the idea that the US enjoys the best standard of living and that image helps to block socioeconomic transformations in their countries since they don't feel attracted by other cultural models elsewhere.
2) "And I hope the US will manage the transition away from the empire and become prosperous again."
I doubt that this will happen. The US has a "social contract" in which the illusion of an ever increasing prosperity allows to tolerate the extremely unfair pro-business and pro-1%ers policies that the official and civil institutions protect. The US social cohesion works as long as "the sky is the limit" (or "The American Dream") is still believable.
The US won't have enough indigenous resources to recreate a "New Deal". The country is already developed and the needed transformations don't necessarily imply the traditional path of economic grow in a mass consumption society (investment in internal market's economy -> more consumption -> even more investment and taxes -> repeat).
However, what may positively happen (as I saw in many places in the US) is a massive slow shift in consciousness to a "survival" economy: To live on local products and resources, more frugally but more sustainably. This is evident in "marginal progressive" places such as Burlington, VT. I doubt that NYC or Boston can enter into that equation.
(continues)
I do not disagree with you on much of what you say. However, this statement:
"The US won't have enough indigenous resources to recreate a "New Deal". The country is already developed ..."
is not true. The natural resources of the US are still extensive (as an example, search "Green River oil". Three trillion barrels of recoverable crude oil). Economical now, probably not. And the societal/political factors makes that unfeasible at present. Also, it is easier to plunder foreign resources before using your own indigenous resources.
But in the case where the SHTF, the resources exist, and they are recoverable. Will that take a major upheaval of society in North America? Of course! But that eventuality is now a distinct possibility. I hope that an outcome like that will be concomitant with cooperation of the US with other countries instead of (attempted) domination by the US.
I get your point. I thought about the shale oil and I think that it becomes unfeasible at very high volumes. The experience of the tar sands in Alberta shows the very difficult handling of polluted waters used to get the energy-rich substances, and this irreversible affected the Cree community in Northern Alberta.
Tar sands and shale gas/oil are obtained in processes that could be described as "squeezing a sponge": The use of physical methods to dislodge the energy materials from a lattice (br that shale or a lattice of sand/rock formations), usually steam/water that is very difficult to get rid of thereafter.
Don't confuse GR shale oil (Green River) with tar sands (Canada). I was personally involved with transportation of WCS (Western Canadian Select) oil blend from Canada to the U.S. That product typically contains significant amounts of sand which ultimately required regular cleaning of barges and railcars. And WCS is an upgraded type of Canadian tar sands oil.
Shale formations are a different beast, and do not have that problem (see Bakken crude, for example). I am not implying that GR is like Bakken oil, (the GR oil is in the form of kerogen, a solid under normal conditions). In fact, technology today cannot cleanly separate the oil GR from the solids. However, as energy becomes more scarce, economics of methods like pyrolysis or Thermal conversion become more attractive. Time will tell.
The processing of shale oil will always be energy intensive; as such, significantly more expensive than extracting oil in ME, Russia, etc.
Very interesting.
Not only your comments but also the following discussion with Piquet.
Thank you for contributing. And yes, I fully agree regarding Latin America.
Did you read Economics and Empires 3? I wrote about soft power there.
"But the US has a problem. It relies so much on soft GDP factors (like the big tech companies) that it has lost the capability for industrial production. It is nice to have Facebook, Twitter etc. producing big GDP numbers, but unfortunately you can’t eat data. And neither can you eat shares of stocks. You also can’t drive to work with data; you need an affordable car. A USB flash drive won’t take you to work at the factory.
The USA outsourced a huge part of its industrial base to both China and its closest allies."
Not only is America no longer able to make things, America is no longer able to make the things that make the things.
A generation or more of machinists, welders, tool-and-die makers, gear makers, steamfitters, fabricators, boilermakers, high voltage electricians, all skills that cannot be mastered easily and all left to rot.
Indeed. That's a huge problem for the task of re-industrializing.
And an exiting one as well :)
https://youtu.be/LUm6xjXq3MU
Watch this and your mind will be blown. Henry J. Kaiser turning a mudflat into five shipyards and surrounding infrastructure, then cranking out cargo ships faster than the Axis could make torpedoes. All in a few years.
Those jobs used to pay well.
I wonder what could possibly be done about the dearth of skilled tradesment.
Yes, it would take over a decade to solve...
Guys... Great misery brings a very quick transformation period.
It was always like that. You are all right.
But if the US is in great misery AND it would have a great leader THEN it could transform within 4-6 years into independence. I'm sure about that.
This is the big question... Where is the great leader?
The oligarchs are not yet ready for a real chief executive.
Trump or Kennedy would do, or DeSantis. The VP slot will be most revealing The VP is the oligarch's insurance against the POTUS, like LBJ for JFK.
Gabbard or DeSantis in a VP slot would mean the oligarchy had been reorganized in a coup.
Think about the class implications of that statement, or, or that matter, "Defund The Police".
To the PMC, what that slogan means is "take money from the undeserving (blue-collar, unionized and famously unwoke cops) and give to the deserving (white collar, college educated social workers who can be counted to uphold the latest PC tenets).
Yes, the US economy has transitioned from production to complince.
This needs to change back, doesn't it?
Compliance is fine for the seat of a wealthy empire, extracting tribute from the world, but America the free-country will need production. Productive people have different social patterns, too. I miss that egalitarian normalcy these days.
I graduated high school in 1976, the peak-egalitarian year for US paychecks.
Wow, epic post, thank you so much again, lots to ponder. I really like the Symbiosis and waiting game points.
One thing, I'm curious that you don't factor in or regard as so important one of the US Empires other great weapons: propaganda. IMO it's their 'hypersonic weapon' and one of the key ways they ensure vassal states stay in line, and it's the key ingredient in all their 'colour revolutions'. It has the population WANTING subservience. Just look at Europe, so many there still think the war with Ukraine is awesome when it's destroying their livelihoods and impoverishing their children.
eg with the bases, they're just backup, most of the population want them there because they've been marinading in Empire propaganda their whole lives. In my mind it's fully a third pillar, and the one that's most likely to have us all hurtling towards WW3 and/or annihilation.
Appreciate any of your thoughts on this, looking forward to your next article!
Thank you so much. Great comment.
Regarding your question about propaganda.
You are right. But I avoid to repeat already introduced concepts twice.
Steve gave a good explanation about that.
And I already wrote about propaganda and media in detail here:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/economics-and-empires-3
But yes, I agree with you and Steve as well.
Thanks again.
Re your excellent analysis in empires 3 (no idea how I missed it but I thought I'd already read it)... I agree going into it too much again would be superfluous. However to my mind the propaganda complex is going to play a huge role in how things play out in Asia (and everywhere), so still find it curious it's not specifically referred to here as a factor or pillar. With this tool alone the dying empire can/will cause a lot of havoc.
And I'm not so convinced the mind control will break down after Ukraine as it's not really about the information, that's just the icing on the cake, the cake is the underlying assumptions that are so heavily embedded in how we think about things... the deep yearning to believe something other than our lying eyes tell us, the fundamental assumptions about how the world works that we've been trained in since birth, the relentless psychological abuse we've been subjected to. Ukraine falling could in fact make things worse.
I hope you're right and my fears are unrealised though :).
Mind you I do live in Australia so my view is somewhat skewed, we're about as heavily marinated in Empire propaganda as it gets.
I thought about your comment overnight and I think you are right.
I didn't want to go over media again.
Why?
My "Economics and Empires" series should be the groundwork for a book.
And normally the reader should have read already the media section.
You can imagine all Economics and Empires parts as multiple layers of one single reality.
But yes, I should have at least mentioned it and put a link to EaE3.
I will rework this for the book of course and maybe I will alter the article slightly if my time allows it.
Thanks for your feedback.
It's possible the USA propaganda weapon is losing effectiveness.
I have been reading Alex Krainer's substack: he's an intelligent, serious person, not given to lies or misdirection:
https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/this-time-its-different-wisdom-of
"I am relatively familiar with the sentiments in my native Croatia, which is a catholic nation that's never been particularly close with Russia. There, probably three out of four people today sympathize with the Russian side. This impression is shared by many people I spoke with there. A number of informal polls I encountered on social media during the recent months corroborate this on a broader basis.
(...)
A few weeks ago, a person who works for NATO in one of its member nations wrote me an email. They told me that NATO was keenly monitoring the public sentiment among its member states. Here's what they wrote (word for word, including the emphasis): "I know from my job (military) that Roumanians, Moldovans, Bulgarians, Hungarians, Slovakians, Cypriots and all the Balkans are circa 3 out of 4 and above with Russia. Austrians, Italians, Czechs, Spaniards and French around 2 out of 3.""
Hi, I believe Alex regards propaganda in.the context of media as a soft power.
I kind of agree, propaganda has to be backed by a hard power in and of itself without that backing its relative power is limited, see any none nuclear country and how the view of it differs to those of a nuclear power for example.
The two pillars that Alex goes into great depth analysing are increased in power by the effect of control over the media narrative (the essence of what propaganda is in truth).
But propaganda NEEDS a hard power behind it in order for it to be effective.
Take the UK as an example. It lost its hard power sometime around Suez, post that date the effect of its propaganda reduced massively and id say oy remains as an adjunct tied in to the USAs hard power backing it up now.
In part its why I believe Europe and the anglosphere are hitching their wagons so tightly to the US, they are trying by being a loyal vasal state to maintain a lost relevance and influence by doing the bidding of a country with that hard power.
Yes :-)
Thanks. I guess I see them as very much symbiotic, rather than soft needing to be backed by hard. eg Hard power is no where near as effective without good propaganda, just like as you point out Soft is stronger with a big stick behind it.
I'd say the main reason Europe is hitching to the US so tightly is because their brains have been so totally marinated in Empire propaganda, their world view so totally conditioned (which is the real genius, the information comes and goes) that there seems no other alternative. It's their perception of US hard power which is the key thing, not the hard power itself.
"Remember this, take it to heart, live by it, die for it if necessary: that our patriotism is medieval, outworn, obsolete; that the modern patriotism, the true patriotism, the only rational patriotism, is loyalty to the Nation all the time, loyalty to the Government when it deserves it."
--Mark Twain
Holmes, I am an American domestic shorthair (aka, an "American mixed breed cat").
I don't "hate America", but I also freely admit that if America were to sink into the sea today, most of the rest of the world would rejoice at their deliverance.
Don't worry about our precious feelings.
Good to know :D
Fascinating analysis.
Your intellectual capacity and ability to convey complex issues in a relatively concise and understandable manner is masterful.
I learned more from your writings than from history classes in school (ok, I guess maybe I wasn’t an ace student).
Much respect.
Trust me, even if you were a good student, this stuff wasn't taught there! So we had to wait for uncensored media of global reach to get the full picture!
(continues)
3) "China’s Domestic Challenges"
There is one challenge that I see coming further long the road and is the "paradox of growth": China may face a similar problem that the US faced after the 1970s when the country fully developed and matured. I mean, the investment in infrastructure and other social improvement initiatives cease to provide the multiplying effect in the economy after some time.
4) Israel
Israel shares a similarity with the mid-XX-Century US: A patchwork of cultures and ethnicities glued together only by common myths.
In the US, the illusion (or verification) of economic growth and the existence of external enemies helped to avoid extreme inter-ethnic struggles, It was very common that quarters and zones of US cities consisted of mainly a single ethnic group (Irish, Jews, Blacks, Latinos, etc).
Israel suffers something similar: Hasidim (ultra religious people) and non-religious nationalists don't have a project in common and will always be prone to a mutual civil clash. The external enemy (Arabs) glues them together. Peace, therefore, doesn't serve for Israeli civil cohesion.
Add to that the end of generous subsidies from American and European Jewish communities and a harder stance in the international arena will work definitely against Israel.
Maybe China will "save" Israel by managing the Haifa port and helping it integrate into the BRI. However, the old Israel will never come back (the country will depopulate and a significant redrawing of borders will be unavoidable).
5) Arab States
The Arab/Muslim societies are organized different ways than in Western or Christian countries, where clans play a significant role. The inter-clan disputes have been very common even before the Westerners conquered the Middle East. This, added to different interpretations of Islam, helped to ignite serious clashed among clans, among religious alignments (Shia-Sunni) and countries.
Even though the Western interventions added fuel to the fire (such as the Sykes-Pikot pact), they didn't started it. What I mean is that we cannot simplify this situation as malign Westerners creating strife among Arabs when they already had strong ones before.
Thanks. Good points.
3)
Yes, definitely. That's the cycle ;)
But I assume that China will be able to carry on for some decades since it has hundreds of millions of people that are still living in "nothing". Investment in infrastructures and big/new cities are a investment to create a potential for these people to develop. China is planing in decades. Presumably even in a longer term than Russia. Which is already very long.
There is still a lot to develop. The question is, will China be able to exploit these potentials or not.
This is something that I can't say. Maybe not. I think India has more potential considering the next decades/centuries. But who knows.
4)
Yes. And I would wish that the WW2 winners would have helped here better to bring in the cohesion without an external enemy. They didn't. After what happened to the Jews in WW2 they would have deserved this support by the world. (I don't blame the West here. I explicitly blame the Soviet Union as well).
But yes, my hope is also that China manages to integrate Israel. I hope and pray for that. It would be very beneficial for Israel as well.
Did you hear my interview with Scott Ritter regarding this topic?
5)
Well, I think we need to distinguish. Yes, you are right. If you consider the single Arab nations they might not work well as single nations. Because of clans etc.
But always when they have been managed in any kind of empires they worked well together.
The West broke up the Ottoman Empire. But it worked for centuries. Yes, it didn't include all Arab states. But the ones that were included worked well within this empire.
But again, I don't see the big differences in our views.
Edit: Not that I consider it a bad thing that the Ottoman Empire broke... We Serbs are very grateful for this, since we were occupied for 500 years.
I know very little about the Ottomans, but I think that a key of their success and their long existence was tolerance. I mean, the Pachas were happy if they collected their levies from their vassals and let them organize as they pleased. It didn't prevent nationalistic revolutions (such as the Greek independence in the 1820s), but certainly delayed it.
Now, this tolerance is relative. I remember the Meteora temples on top of steep cliffs, where Christian Greeks had to build their monasteries so as to not be persecuted on the ground.
I guess that it brought "flexibility" to the whole socio-economic structure, curiously something very similar to what China tries to do (they will do business with Brazil regardless if Lula or Bolsonaro are in power, and they won't mingle unless a critical issue arises, such as Macri in Argentina attempting to cancel the 2 hydroelectric projects in Patagonia and having to backtrack after warnings from Beijing).
I wish I had time to listen to long videos. I can barely read, contribute and cope with ordinary life. I often miss important contributions from Martianov, Lira, the Duran, yourself, etc, etc.
I see that you have a lot of knowledge.
I appreciate it.
Like it to see that capable people reading my blog.
Thanks for your contribution.
very busy, toke me a couple of days to finish it, as always great piece. very complicated staff you did here, several multi-layer factors, I was really impress what china did with Iran and Saudi Arabia (funny thing the Chines did, signing the treaties when Ursula and Macron where there, awesome trolling), the Yemen war ended automatically, also Russia is working on the Sirian-EveryOneElse problem very efficiently, also Afghanistan is coming to the table. !!Afghanistan!!, some lose ends still remain, but the bear is flexing the soft power muscle and is doing awesome. Also I'm kind of angry at you, no Cuba in the list of sanctioned, come on! we hold the second more large sanctioned period in history, North Korea win, well they actually kill american troops.
I also noted the omissions of Cuba and North Korea, which seem very important to me, for roles they may yet play.
Haha sorry for Cuba :))))
Good to know you are from Cuba ;)
Thanks as always for your comment.
The US system is designed to outdo all other states in ruthlessness and amorality; wining is all. This works, and depends on, those calling the shots never having skin in the game: neither their wealth nor their lives are ever actually on the line (only the lives of soldiers and other "commoner" proxies). Otherwise, their decadence, cowardice, and weakness would induce them to beat a hasty retreat and offer terms. That's why I think all the signs they give of willingness to escalate to the point of nuclear war, starting with tactical nukes, are pure bluff. They are all too aware that they can be targeted in their boltholes: Manhattan, the Hamptons, Martha's Vineyard, Belgravia, Ile St. Louis, Monaco, and all the rest. And that's why, if Russia and China are smart, they'll be prepared, if and when necessary, to call the US's nuclear bluff.
You're absolutely right.
I described it in many former analysis that I assume that going to the threshold of nuclear war is a full bluff by the American oligarchs.
And that's the reason why I'm very calm about WW3, yet.
See here.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/prospects-for-world-war-3-dedicated
Thank You Sir.
Just a simple question...
What can we little peasants in west europe do?
I assume that I would get in trouble if I answer this question...
So, forgive me but I can't do that :(
I helped answer the question, which I am working on myself.
I have just been given a link to your site by a research librarian (special powers) friend.
I have read this essay in full and carefully.
I am in about as complete agreement as is possible, given the vageries of language.
Your English is excellent, without any qualifiers.
Surplus Energy Economics looks at the inevitable decline in cheap energy, which resource appears to have peaked in the second half of 2019, around the time of the "repo crisis" in the $US financial system. https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
Michael Hudson often looks at the debt-overhang problem, and is an economic historian, as well as having devised the "petrodollar" in his book "Super Imperialism", which motivated Kissinger/Nixon to strike the deal with King Faisal of Saudi Arabia.
Hudson and Ellen Brown advocate banking as a public utility, like the Bank Of North Dakota. "Profits" feed the public purse, and loans are made, to improve the economy of the public entity/state, to borrowers with good prospects of repayment. This nourishes a healthy economy, a real-economy, rather than parasitizing and cannibalizing real economy, to keep up with interest-service-growth, as global financial neoliberal capitalism is now doing.
Global neoliberal financial capitalism is effectiely extracting monopoly rents at the same time as cheap fuel is in decline. This must break sooner. This is also what you foresee. It is possible to foresee it without the energy analysis, but I think the energy analysis is fundamental, and helps.
I don't know how much Hudson considers it, but he is obviously aware of it. He sees things through a Marxian analytical perspective, which is fine, as far as it goes.
Keynes must have also understood it, since the peak-good-coal that the UK experienced during WW-1 contributed to Italy aligning with Germany after that, and ultimately to the decline of empire. There were other factors.
FDR wanted the global reserve currency, and to end the empire. FDR died-funny, and the empire of London largely transferred to New York/Washington (much simplified, of course).
protonmail?
Hope I would not be in trouble simply asking... :)
Grow vegetabes and secure your needs in food, water, fuel, shelter, and a community that is right-sized, without history of violence between factions. This is not a time to fught, but a time to survive (IMHO).
You know what Macron just said but won't do? Do that but on all axes of hard and soft power. But that question was for Aleks so what do I know? :)
Thank you so much Aleks. This reinforces my belief that the American people (and people everywhere) need to think and work locally since everything else is out of our control. In the US, many states are creating bullion depositories, thinking about state banks, creating legislation to protect their citizens against damaging federal laws, etc. Worldwide we have enormous issues regarding factory farming that is causing environmental issues, corruption of food along with food lobbying that is promoting damaging diets which in and of itself is causing massive health issues and weakening the human population. If we take care of our local home front, then hopefully we will all be prepared for the global changes that are inevitable.
Your maps of russian occupation in east Europe are clearly exaggerated.
You really shouldn't allow your frustration with western invasions of Russia influence your analysis.
I'm afraid you misunderstand what is going on.
We are in an existential struggle between Russia and the West.
Russia needs to push the West back to ensure its security for the next decades/centuries. (As every century since Napoleon).
This is only going to end in a total defeat of the West or a total defeat of Russia.
The latter is less likely because everyone knows we all would die in this case.
The result of this war will be a broken West.
The goal is this:
https://open.substack.com/pub/bmanalysis/p/new-draft-treaty-for-european-security
There will be tectonic changes.
As every well known analyst already is saying, both pro-west and pro-BRICS, we are experiencing changes that are bigger than these after WW2.
East-Europe will change dramatically within the next ten years. (Alternative is we all die)
Ukraine is a cataclysmic event.
But everything is so far ahead, that I won't do detailed analysis about it because it would make no sense. So many things can still change.
So, no, these maps are my unbiased analysis.
Which doesn't mean that I can't be wrong of course.
Thank you for the clarification.
I, of course, do not think Russia will go beyond Ukraine. Nothing in the russians' behaviour or statements indicates this.
On the other hand, you have proven your skill on geopolitical analysis.
And, if events escalate far enough, it could come to this indeed. Such escalation implies a high probability of nuclear weapons being used, though. I truly hope things will not go that far.
Perfekt as always ! Köszönöm szépen !
Thank you.
Greetings to Hungary.
First, let me make you my best compliments: bravo, bis!
That said, I am quite blackpilled about that "BRICS currency": it looks a lot like Bretton Woods over and over again.
That is, we are stuck in a world:
1. Chained to a cross of gold/commodity money and so recession, or
2. Destined to a Yuan-standard and/or a (cold?) War of the Petrodollar succession.
Thank you, as always ;)
That is a very good question!
And it will be the topic of Economics and Empires 6.
I'm afraid you will need to wait a little bit until you get my explanation. But you certainly WILL get my explanation.
Just a small hint:
The future is not yet written. I see several scenarios how the future BRICS currency could look like.
But what I know until now is, that it is something completely new. No "Bretton Woods". But yes, it will have elements of Bretton Woods. But let's wait and see. I will write the article in several months so maybe I will get many more information until then.
This is not a trivial topic...
Pardon me if I try to explain my humble opinion... I'm old enough to remember when we had two competing blocks that anyway had commercial relations and exchanges.
Will the two new blocks try to interact someway economically? If so, they will need something apolitical both will appreciate and use like exchange: gold? gold blockchained? silver? a basket of commodities?
Glaziev?
If not, my fear that they will simply resort to ww3, hope not.
Such an accomodation could be useful for internal BRICS commercial Balance Of Payment as well.
And... will we in the west be ready to have on hand such physical resources to use after decades of disparaging the shiny pet rock and the lesser cousin?
I am scared thinking that the master evils (let's call them the Mardukians of London...) are the fiat money printers, being that the source of their almost limitless power, will they accept resigning such power?
And we are but their slaves...
My dream/dread...
the BRICS asking payment for their commodities we need in silver (not gold for a bunch of reasons), at the price determined in LBMA: how they will game that price?: too low, they will send away all they have;
too high, They will crash their/our currency going to weimar reloaded.
And we are but swirling in that bathtube :(
Tl;dr: Bancor? Is there enough good faith between the BRICS for such an high-trust high-reward system? Prisoner's dilemma told otherwise...sadly, ofc.
This is overall a very interesting article but I would like to counterpose it to one glaring mistake:
"Russia’s far eastern territories and their populations are historically Asian rather than European/Russian. The Soviets tried to solve this “problem” through deportations, but there are still regions with mainly ethnic Asians."
The Turkic indigenous siberans living in Sibera such as Сахалар & Тывалар have nothing to do with China or us Han Chinese & are foreigners.
I could not help but laugh out loud when I read this, at this ignorant implied reasoning that China may have irredentist claims to Siberia based upon "Asians" living there & Chinese are " also Asians".
I'm happy to welcome a Chinese on my blog. As far as I remember, you are the first Chinese commentator here :-)
I welcome challanges to my views.