Keynes, after WW2, proposed the BANCOR, which sounds a lot like the “BRIC”. The West (well mostly the US and Britain) obviously tanked the idea in favor of the USD to keep the US hold over Europe. Back then the USD was backed by gold so most didn’t mind, until 1971 when the rug was pulled out from under them. This needs to be taken into account in the new currency.
A issue they debated was the accumulation problem. Export countries would inevitably accumulate BANCORs and importing nations wouldn’t, eventually leading to gridlock. It also meant that an increase in the money supply in cases of emergencies is not possible and the only way to increase funds is through debt, putting the accumulating countries in a dominant position, which they can exploit.
The currency issues can be solved to a great extent with something like Bitcoin. However, there also needs to be universal laws that regulate the currency and any changes to it, regulate trade, and foreign investments. Here I am talking about laws that PREVENT a stronger nation from taking advantage of a smaller one and laws that kick into effect automatically with multiple input variables to bring back to a reasonable balance currency reserves to avoid gridlock.
What countries, especially small countries who are resource poor or land locked, need to accept is they will likely not be as prosperous or wealthy as larger countries and that’s ok, because they will have their independence and sovereignty, and if they have a good government, they would have enough to satisfy their basic needs. That’s just the way of the world and should be a well worth trade off (I’d say a major upgrade) from what they have now.
Bitcoin should be renamed 'bitcon' please read Graeber's 'Debt the first 5,000 years' to see why bitcon is 'solution' to a 'problem' that simply doesn't exist. Plus of course it uses more electricity than entire countries, its carbon footprint is 80.76 Mt CO2 comparable to the carbon footprint of Romania. In other words its not even remotely scalable.
Your conclusions regarding my country Hungary are very interesting. I don't claim that they are against me ! :) I note that I fully support the cooperation between my country and Serbia, thanking Prime Minister Orbán, not to mention the tireless work of Foreign Minister Szijártó, for making the friendship and alliance between the two neighboring nations so close !
We hope that they can fight the current crisis with the color revolution that Soros and his accomplices are fomenting using the election as an excuse !
Thank you very much, Aleks. Great wrap-up of the series.
As of
"Implementation of the free world order could be finished by 2032, maybe.
But will it be a paradise?"
Regarding Latin America, I expect a very rough route to get there, because the change on mentality and standard of living (or expectation of standard of living) will be very hard to accept by most of the population and will prompt a stiff reaction from the privileged elites.
Latin America may be the most culturally-aligned region to the US in the World, because of common history and similarities (European discoverers and colonizers, European immigrants that displaced the indigenous peoples, constitutional framework copied from the US constitution very early on, common share of an "American Dream" with nuances, etc.). The US became thus a beacon for most of the Latin American countries.
Once that beacon stops shining, confusion will settle. People having spent most of their lives bending over backwards to accumulate US Dollars won't know what to do and how to re-engage with the International community, especially how to retain wealth and privileges.
For these elites, the USD won't be easy to replace on a snap because the alternative financial framework being developed by the BRICS will be backed by a material support such as Gold and that particular support will be strong but "real". I mean, no financial "dressing" and creating money out of thin air will be possible anymore (at least at a giant scale) so countries exporting agricultural crops and metals won't get the equivalent money for continuing to run a high consumption society as they used to have, with the lion's share in hands of those elites. Thus, societies will have more sustainable but more frugal, with clear rules for trade but the financial gains won't be limitless. Fewer benefits to share, and the Latin American elites don't accept to relinquish anything (due to their parasitary nature).
Adding to that, I suspect that at an early and middle stage the new BRICS financial system will be almost exclusively oriented towards country-to-country agreements, not between simple individuals/companies and financial institutions such as Wall Street banks. This will impact very hard the wealth and power projection of the local elite (not being able to conceal these trade benefits for the country as a whole), which will try to maintain their power on the "old hard way" (extreme repression of poorer classes) since no more "carrots" will be available to share with the masses, just sticks.
Something of this dynamics can be seen in the new Argentine government or the Peruvian one since the oust of Castillo: Repressive rules to the extreme, impossibility of sustaining the debt cycle even if playing strictly to the US rules (impossibility of neutralizing the fiscal deficit due to the overwhelming debt), etc. The more the rules don't work, the tighter the elites and fractions of the middle class stick to the Western financial principles, myths and fantasies.
I also see that survival in the future will be possible to those societies where sumptuous consumption subordinates to the need of previous economic development. That mental framework is absent in Latin America, where affluent people and elites want immediate gratification instead of sacrificing it to improve infrastructure and economic development.
I think that "better or worse" would depend on the values of a given group or individual.
I envision a World where on the most optimistic scenario most people will have many needs covered by the state or the communities (education, health) but they will hardly make a living and wasteful consumption will be very limited.
For some people, this is a catastrophe, for some others is just short of a blessing.
I like your suggestions for the US to become a normal successful country.
None of it will happen before a major defeat or collapse.
Other than human nature, the people in charge can’t change course, like your train analogy, because they stand to lose too much and the changes necessary are beyond their ability and capacity to imagine. They would rather risk it all - so long as there is no physical risk to them personally - to avoid the loss of power than to change course or let the people actually rule (which they haven’t in 60 years).
Hate to break it to you but it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.
The best we can hope for is at the end something better comes out of it.
Alrighty, I did the deed. I finished this read, the videos, and a cruise by Rumble. I sent your series along today, to hopefully drum up a subscriber. A girl can dream. 2024 is full, like really full of good things, relative. A difficult time to be embodied, yet here/we are. GodSpeed. Most days I have few words. My bones are old, I am tired. I watch, listen, pray and hold the light. Do all the good I can, in all the ways I can. May God provide for you, family, loved ones in the turn towards 2024. Thank you so much for your gifts, I am grateful and carry the good work forward, God willing. ❤️🐈⬛
I’m not finished but just wanted to say that your analysis of capitalism and socialism are spot on. I’ve lived under both and you’re right on the pros and cons. It’s amazing to me how people in the west recoil in horror when you mention the S word.
I also came to the same conclusion that the best system is a blend of both although I’m sure you have the details much more worked out.
An example of blends to varying degrees are Sweden and Canada. Problem is, Sweden worked because of high social trust but once that was broken because of mass immigration from non compatible countries/cultures, the level of education of the immigrants, and the speed of change, social trust diminished and the blend didn’t work as well as in the past. Same to a varying degree happened in Canada but it also had the challenge of leaning more and more on the capitalist side and so the social services began to suffer - although I don’t have a full explanation here.
Those examples do show that the protection of blended systems need to be ever vigilant of charting an independent domestic and foreign policy while keeping an eye on social and demographic changes. I wouldn’t call them fragile but a determined predator can find weaknesses and a strong and vigilant government/public service sector needs to be there. This also needs to be populated mostly by people who are motivated by “socialist values” (don’t have a better description) and patriotism, but knowledgeable and intelligent enough to know when to step in, how, and when to let things be.
Just my 2 cents. Not an easy problem to solve but I have high hopes for your book.
I believe the symptoms you've just described can be well explained by the mechanisms outlined in this article.
And you're right, a strong government is always needed to protect the country. Essentially, I described this in 'Economics and Empires 3.'
The point is, there is no universal golden path. Each country needs to find the appropriate balance for its unique composition and social structure. And as you rightly pointed out, things change. Therefore, the system or the government must also be capable and willing to evolve.
Ultimately socialism works best when there are less pronounced differences within the group however large that group is.
Things like unintegrated immigration, Wealth disparity and a so called closed rank at the top, religious differences left to fester (usually when one religion is expansionist against a static/declining or insular looking one. Amongst other factors these start breaking the concept of socialism. In a bubble the concept of a socialist society is ideal, but the works is what it is and people are what they are and both those factors mean the best we can hope for as far as a socialist society is one which incorporates the socialist principles that everyone (well the vast majority) agrees are fundamentally just, fair and to be desired within a country. Economics pure and simple is fundamentally anti socialist by its most successful economic models.
Canada's system is falling apart as well, partly like Sweden's, partly like the US. Its multiculturalism has created a lot of divides as it's dissolved the Canadian identity. Health care funding is going downhill and the politics re COVID absolutely destroyed a sense of trust in each other and the government.
I don't know where Canada will end up, but it does have the advantage of resources. It's more treated like a 51st state than a pure colony. But no Canadian leader has a backbone anymore.
Agreed. Only comment is I wouldn’t say it’s not Canada’s multiculturalism that has created its problems per se. Canada has been multicultural for decades and in my opinion has been able to integrate immigrants even better than the US. It’s the speed and type of immigrants that is the problem.
Take Quebec for example. One of the criteria they prefer for immigrants is that they speak French. Now, if you want to keep French as the dominant language and that’s your only concern then fine. But it’s not only ethically people from France that speak French. Many north and sub Saharan Africans do too. I’m sure there are plenty of hardworking law abiding people there who would want to come to Canada. But if that’s your main criteria you’re not going to always get people who are compatible and willing to internalize Canadian values.
Also the rate at which immigration has accelerated over the past 30 years is mind boggling. It’s one thing if there is a specific demand for it but already Canada was barely able to provide social services for its current population. The new immigrants became, unfortunately, a net burden.
Like Aleks, especially for traditionally immigration nations,I believe immigration can be a good thing .. but only if it’s done right.
I also think that being so close to the US has had a negative influence on Canada, especially since the start of the unipolar moment in 1991. Canada does have a lot of resources but they’re not used properly. There is no reason Canada cannot become like Russia but the influence of the US doesn’t allow it to properly develop, whether through brain drain or control of policy.
Wonderful conclusion to a well-researched series, Bravo! A few comments, if I may:
I. The current economic-military structure of the US has three near impossible features to overcome:
a. The Federal Reserve
b. Fiat currency
c. Perversion of morals, beginning with the "Booomer Generation," and down through the Millennials.
II. Due to the three features, the political-economic system is no longer free market, capitalistic, nor socialistic; however it is an "Americanized Fascism," system. The disgusting orgy of power between government, industry (including MIC), and banking will not permit any of your wonderful ideas regarding the $500 billion saved from military expenditures. The only salvation is for the system to collapse and to hope a better system is built (Constitutional Monarchy?).
III. Naval power is worth less nowadays. LCS class Liberty failures, hypersonics > aircraft carriers, and I'd posit that US submarines are sub-par (see what iI did there 😃😃) to the new Russian class boomers and fast attacks. The largest differentiator being: reactor cooling systems of the new Russian boats, which utilize natural circulation of cooling water; US boats require sound "isolated," pumps to circulate coolant to the reactor core.
a. Side note: I served 8 years as a reactor operator on a Sturgeon Class fast attack submarine.
IV. I like the idea of pegging currencies to gold to facilitate trade. The best option, in my opinion, would be to have one standard date for the conversion, say: 1 Jan 2024. "Value," of gold is traded based in USD. If USD loses its value due to de-dollarization, then it will be more expensive for other countries to accumulate gold. Couple that with Russia (BRICS+) countries being more accommodating to new members (low credit score or allowing for defaulting of USD denominated debt) will help grow and strengthen BRICS+.
My fear, shared with many of my friends and colleagues, is that war within the US is unavoidable. Half of the country will not accept the election results if either front runner (currently Biden and Trump) wins, with emotions stoked at least as high as they were in 1860. The collapse has been ongoing slowly, we're about to enter the rapid and terminal phase.
It's going to be a long and difficult process to move past current ideologies of Socialism vs Capitalism. Certainly for me. I've been a longtime libertarian but I see the contradictions and conflicts that inevitably surface as a society moves towards one or the other of the poles. A robust commons is essential to human flourishing, and although it does not come without costs or compromise, it is a good and reasonable goal and it should be something all peoples can agree with and work towards.
Regarding the fate of USA, having read a few articles on the current socio-political situation there and heard stories from relatives and other people who live there, I personally think we may know it already with this year elections (if they take place!). I mean: even Hollywood writers have released a trailer of what could happen... :)
Regarding Europe, I think we also face risk of civil unrest, depending on how things develop. You also mention possibility of war between countries, e.g. between Germany and Poland. Although I have read about post-WWII compensation disputes, I think and hope that a war in Central Europe is very unlikely. Instead, I personally rate civil unrest against current political elites more likely, if things do not get better soon.
It's looking like the US is finally going to steal Russia's frozen reserves - this should hasten the flight from western financial institutions and instruments. Anyway, it's now impossible to hide the fact that the US engages in economic and financial theft. As for 2030, Martin Armstrong's Socrates program agrees 2030 US finito.
Computer programs, remote viewers, take your pick - there are patterns to tap into depending on sensory framework. It's already pretty bad and can mostly get worse because imbeciles are in charge who missed Saturday Night Live, more cowbell.
Happy new year Alex thanks for this update but sorry you are wrong on everything(nothing against you). I'm not Russian(never been there even less in Ukraine). I would have loved to visit Moscow and Petersburg before I die (I'm elderly), but it will not happen as these cities will probably cease to exist as we know them. Almost everybody is saying Russia is winning, Ukraine has x hundreds of thousands of KIA..probable. Russia has less losses but Russia 'smo' is understaffed since day one for reasons we all know, not going to repeat. ATTENTION, I'm not a nato or ukie troll or like Saker used to say a strelkovite hura 'patriot' aka 6th column. I followed this conflict since dec 2013 when Maidan started under the snow on a light mode (as in Beograd today but take care in Serbia snipers could arrive in Jan Feb for exactly another Maidan 2.0).Counteroffensive failed it is true but now Nato and the Junta go on doubling down and full escalation mainly with terror acts(tonight already 4 deads again in Donetsk in a Belgorod 2.0, but for Donetsk it is almost routine for..10 years). F 16 and probably Taurus or other types of long range missiles will follow soon (if they are not yet secretly arrived?). Ukies are on semi defensive trying for P R to hold some places on the front on three places. Lot say time is on Russia side, I don't think so, no more. It is now more existential for NATO than for Russia. False flags will follow (chemical, mini nukes..) then they will strike deep inside Russia (with dozens of thousands of deads and mass destruction). They put everything on before Russian election in March(the 17th if not wrong?). Why because the plan is still and only regime change (killing as many Russians and destroying as much infra as possible also). What will be Putin reaction after for exemple thousands of civilians are killed in a big city like Moscow? Russian AD is very good but not perfect and impossible to put a S 400 at every corner.I'm afraid as usual there will be no reaction as before when all red lines have been crossed...then nato + neocons will triple down etc don't forget it is a POTUS year and they will do ANYTHING to impede Trump to come back eventhough I'm not sure he would change much as real power is not in the WH but in Deep State Dept with the Nuland, Blinken clique...being Biden (if still alive) or anyone else for the dems it will be another warmonger why not Hillary, then be sure WWIII is a done deal.
But the big game changer (not in weapons for once) will be the US forcing the EU de facto to steal RU Central bank assets (not clear is private RU assets will be in the deal?).The main goal of the anglos + (Japan) being to destroy Europe economy not really Russia which can retaliate if true(?) as they say they have the same amount of Western assets they also can steal. Not so sure maybe a few billions but 300 B I don't think so. First of all I'm not even sure the 'West has 300 B, last article read talking about 89 B mainly in Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Germany and Italy, almost nothing in the anglos US UK CA..a few billions. Anglos want to kill the Euro reputation, Euro has always be a firewall for USD just in case ''we will kill the Euro'' to protect the dollar. Logically many believe: omg Global South will be afraid to be the next after Russia and take their money or properties out from Europe/US/UK. The total opposite will happen, BRICS countries (Argentina already left before entering.. lol)will be blackmailed by US, look you leave BRICS, you put sanctions on Russia or we steal your money as well. BRICS will collapse in no time even China will abandon Russia against some good temporary deal, Iran and Venezuela have already been blackmailed (Iran got 7 or 9 billions to not intervene in Gaza, Venezuela right to sell oil to big US raf to replace RU oil, no potus can win an election with WTI above 85/90 USD).Only DPRK will still support Russia. Of course it will take time but politicos like Orban and Fiko fake pro russian will be bought for a few dozens of billions, Serbia if Vucic stays in power will start sanctionning Russia as well. Turkey(not in brics), Georgia etc will follow. RU will be on a World embargo for everything which will rapidly collapse the economy for real this time.Then we will reach a point let's bet on oct surprise when Washington will ask full capitulation of Russia or first strike, if the answer is no. With sane people this kind of situation would never happen in a normal World but don't forget that Nuland and co are fanatics in a personnal vendetta, Nuland even said during a think tank meeting (years ago)that 12 up to 15 millions Americans (of course f..the EU also) could die (in a RU nuke retaliation strike) but it would be ''acceptable as price'' to destroy Russia in exchange. It is clear this crazie has a plan in her sick brain. Don't believe Biden even if he is catholic is less neocon than the three others. Real power still being in the City of London not in Wall Street as many wrongly believe, they will go for nukes as not doing it would be such a loss of face and the biggest NATO US UK EU defeat since these entities exist. Of course it would also mean the end of their career (same for fake journos, pseudo experts etc..) the all Rules based order would collapse including stocks exchange which could be wipep out of 60 % of Western wealth.
This is why WWIII is a done deal eventhough it seems crazy, suicidal(it is), insane they will bet on their self proclaimed superiority and mainly they know VP is a moderate which for them means weak, will never retaliate, let's go team nuke, we are so near of total victory price money will be Russia immense minerals, oil, gas resources etc...which will help us to survive and get even richer. RU oligarchs will found their money back. For Russia it will be total humiliation. For China message will be 'forget about Taiwan ok?'.
Of course I really hope to be wrong, but sorry the VP policy to never retaliate(except a few missiles or gerans) when all red lines have been crossed several times was a total mistake it will probably appear in future history books as the biggest mistake ever made by a leader during a war?
VP wanted to avoid a fight with NATO by using attrition and grinding ok I fully understand usually with sane people it used to work in the past but not with neocons simply watch what is happening now in Gaza. The West only understands force but a credible force, problem after almost two years even Donbass is not liberated and dreamers talk about Odessa, Kiev, Kharkov... Russia does not scare anybody anymore (true they were for a while on 02/24/22).Russia would need 2.5 millions mobics + regular soldiers and not sure they could provide weaponery for so many. Estimated losses would be at least 1 million KIA, then you need to occupy, police, fight guerilla, logistics and rebuild (with which money?). Though it will never happen. This is why today I announce you the (very sad) defeat of Russia the end of the Russian federation. Once again hope to be wrong 100 %.
Option B for Nato without nukes is entering Ukraine , no fly zone, a 'à la Syria' no win no lose for both sides...which means defeat for Russia as here on her doorsteps. Crimea (a British obsession) will be lost later as will face 24/7 bombing from Nato from Odessa and from the other side of the Dniepr.Crimea is the ONLY objective of NATO since Maidan Odessa being nr 2, the rest of Ukraine is irrelevent on a strategic point,wheat and agri has already been sold to Blackrock and co.
Biggest loser after Russia will be Germany and the EU but it was the real goal.
I think you are missing several points. The most important of which is that NATO shadow owners are not suicidal and they don’t have any wish to die or live in a apocalypse Mad Max world
1 - Ukraine going into defensive still has tremendous loses due to the air supremacy , artillery of Russia.
2 - Russia is not in a hurry at all. If you check industry in Russia is tremendously developing day by day. Indeed Russian government is puting far more attention into developing their technology in the holes left by the west than in the SMO itself.
3 - Time is on Russia/China side. Only advantage of the West is microchips. I work in that industry and I can assure you that China will need maximum 3 years to catch up with the West. Reasons why are too long to explain but you can trust me on this
4 - Terrrorisr attacks in Belgorod, or some ship sunk does not change nothing. Terrorist attacks have never achieve to make any country surrender. Not Spain with its basque terrorist, neither Russia with Chechens, neither any other. In general terrorism do the opposite. It’s only effective if it’s manage to kill some leader.
5 - NATO will never use nukes for anything. People who rule NATO knows perfectly that even loosing supremacy they would live a life of luxury in the US. They will never take such step, and you can see it confirmed through the SMO. They want a world where to live.
6 - NATO without nukes is hardly frightening for Russia. What can do NATO? Send land troops to die and create issues? Send F35 full of issues? Send all F16? They will not send nothing.
Half countries of NATO would withdraw they day they need to send troops to fight Russia starting by Portugal, Spain, Italy and followed by France and Turkey
Germany has no army. You has Poland, UK and few more. And they have to fight in very bad conditions.
Just look the map, the front is hundred of km in the East of Ukraine. How you will move troops there? How to love your planes? Your supply lines?
Rest, my dear pal of 42 degrees North, 123 West. Our time is short, we are on shelf life. At some point I gave myself permission to detach, a bit. Your eye catches all, I do notice. Thank you. Old Lady with a virtual kitty cat❤️🐈⬛
Quick note on BRICS.
Keynes, after WW2, proposed the BANCOR, which sounds a lot like the “BRIC”. The West (well mostly the US and Britain) obviously tanked the idea in favor of the USD to keep the US hold over Europe. Back then the USD was backed by gold so most didn’t mind, until 1971 when the rug was pulled out from under them. This needs to be taken into account in the new currency.
A issue they debated was the accumulation problem. Export countries would inevitably accumulate BANCORs and importing nations wouldn’t, eventually leading to gridlock. It also meant that an increase in the money supply in cases of emergencies is not possible and the only way to increase funds is through debt, putting the accumulating countries in a dominant position, which they can exploit.
The currency issues can be solved to a great extent with something like Bitcoin. However, there also needs to be universal laws that regulate the currency and any changes to it, regulate trade, and foreign investments. Here I am talking about laws that PREVENT a stronger nation from taking advantage of a smaller one and laws that kick into effect automatically with multiple input variables to bring back to a reasonable balance currency reserves to avoid gridlock.
What countries, especially small countries who are resource poor or land locked, need to accept is they will likely not be as prosperous or wealthy as larger countries and that’s ok, because they will have their independence and sovereignty, and if they have a good government, they would have enough to satisfy their basic needs. That’s just the way of the world and should be a well worth trade off (I’d say a major upgrade) from what they have now.
Yes, I fully agree.
Bitcoin should be renamed 'bitcon' please read Graeber's 'Debt the first 5,000 years' to see why bitcon is 'solution' to a 'problem' that simply doesn't exist. Plus of course it uses more electricity than entire countries, its carbon footprint is 80.76 Mt CO2 comparable to the carbon footprint of Romania. In other words its not even remotely scalable.
Bitcoin is like the opposite of Bancor because it is a commodity currency.
Your conclusions regarding my country Hungary are very interesting. I don't claim that they are against me ! :) I note that I fully support the cooperation between my country and Serbia, thanking Prime Minister Orbán, not to mention the tireless work of Foreign Minister Szijártó, for making the friendship and alliance between the two neighboring nations so close !
We hope that they can fight the current crisis with the color revolution that Soros and his accomplices are fomenting using the election as an excuse !
Thanks from Serbia :-)
Everything will be well :)
GodSpeed. PM Orban is the cats meow. All the best, always.❤️🐈⬛
Orban was leader when NATO bombed Serbia in 99. He was himself a Soros project, who broke free. He knows what’s what
Thank you very much, Aleks. Great wrap-up of the series.
As of
"Implementation of the free world order could be finished by 2032, maybe.
But will it be a paradise?"
Regarding Latin America, I expect a very rough route to get there, because the change on mentality and standard of living (or expectation of standard of living) will be very hard to accept by most of the population and will prompt a stiff reaction from the privileged elites.
Latin America may be the most culturally-aligned region to the US in the World, because of common history and similarities (European discoverers and colonizers, European immigrants that displaced the indigenous peoples, constitutional framework copied from the US constitution very early on, common share of an "American Dream" with nuances, etc.). The US became thus a beacon for most of the Latin American countries.
Once that beacon stops shining, confusion will settle. People having spent most of their lives bending over backwards to accumulate US Dollars won't know what to do and how to re-engage with the International community, especially how to retain wealth and privileges.
For these elites, the USD won't be easy to replace on a snap because the alternative financial framework being developed by the BRICS will be backed by a material support such as Gold and that particular support will be strong but "real". I mean, no financial "dressing" and creating money out of thin air will be possible anymore (at least at a giant scale) so countries exporting agricultural crops and metals won't get the equivalent money for continuing to run a high consumption society as they used to have, with the lion's share in hands of those elites. Thus, societies will have more sustainable but more frugal, with clear rules for trade but the financial gains won't be limitless. Fewer benefits to share, and the Latin American elites don't accept to relinquish anything (due to their parasitary nature).
Adding to that, I suspect that at an early and middle stage the new BRICS financial system will be almost exclusively oriented towards country-to-country agreements, not between simple individuals/companies and financial institutions such as Wall Street banks. This will impact very hard the wealth and power projection of the local elite (not being able to conceal these trade benefits for the country as a whole), which will try to maintain their power on the "old hard way" (extreme repression of poorer classes) since no more "carrots" will be available to share with the masses, just sticks.
Something of this dynamics can be seen in the new Argentine government or the Peruvian one since the oust of Castillo: Repressive rules to the extreme, impossibility of sustaining the debt cycle even if playing strictly to the US rules (impossibility of neutralizing the fiscal deficit due to the overwhelming debt), etc. The more the rules don't work, the tighter the elites and fractions of the middle class stick to the Western financial principles, myths and fantasies.
I also see that survival in the future will be possible to those societies where sumptuous consumption subordinates to the need of previous economic development. That mental framework is absent in Latin America, where affluent people and elites want immediate gratification instead of sacrificing it to improve infrastructure and economic development.
You're absolutely right.
I'm aware of that... I tried to subtly hint at these things, but I didn't want to be too blunt.
As we all know, history repeats itself: after one empire falls, another rises.
There are many potential disadvantages following the end of the current empire.
The real question remains: will the change be better or worse for the majority of people worldwide?
I suspect, though it's impossible to be certain, that it might be better for the average global population. But who knows?
Thanks for your always great posts!
I think that "better or worse" would depend on the values of a given group or individual.
I envision a World where on the most optimistic scenario most people will have many needs covered by the state or the communities (education, health) but they will hardly make a living and wasteful consumption will be very limited.
For some people, this is a catastrophe, for some others is just short of a blessing.
Best new year gift! Thank you for your writting!!!
Thank you, Mitja
A monster of a final year post and a great series finale. I promised myself to read less and write more but I'll be reading everything you post.
Haha thank you :)
A nice message for New Year's Eve :)
Ah, so. Me, to. I read everything he publishes. I now read your stack as well. Old Lady with a virtual cat❤️🐈⬛
It was a great series.
Aleks: "This will be the last part of Economics and Empires."
Also Aleks: *Writes three parts in one.*
This is the definition of "going out with a bang".
That's how it should be :D
I like your suggestions for the US to become a normal successful country.
None of it will happen before a major defeat or collapse.
Other than human nature, the people in charge can’t change course, like your train analogy, because they stand to lose too much and the changes necessary are beyond their ability and capacity to imagine. They would rather risk it all - so long as there is no physical risk to them personally - to avoid the loss of power than to change course or let the people actually rule (which they haven’t in 60 years).
Hate to break it to you but it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.
The best we can hope for is at the end something better comes out of it.
Yes... That's true.
A lot of ugly "events" are ahead of us I fear.
Alrighty, I did the deed. I finished this read, the videos, and a cruise by Rumble. I sent your series along today, to hopefully drum up a subscriber. A girl can dream. 2024 is full, like really full of good things, relative. A difficult time to be embodied, yet here/we are. GodSpeed. Most days I have few words. My bones are old, I am tired. I watch, listen, pray and hold the light. Do all the good I can, in all the ways I can. May God provide for you, family, loved ones in the turn towards 2024. Thank you so much for your gifts, I am grateful and carry the good work forward, God willing. ❤️🐈⬛
Thank you, JG
As always you have such nice words for me.
Best wishes to you and your family from Serbia.
I’m not finished but just wanted to say that your analysis of capitalism and socialism are spot on. I’ve lived under both and you’re right on the pros and cons. It’s amazing to me how people in the west recoil in horror when you mention the S word.
I also came to the same conclusion that the best system is a blend of both although I’m sure you have the details much more worked out.
An example of blends to varying degrees are Sweden and Canada. Problem is, Sweden worked because of high social trust but once that was broken because of mass immigration from non compatible countries/cultures, the level of education of the immigrants, and the speed of change, social trust diminished and the blend didn’t work as well as in the past. Same to a varying degree happened in Canada but it also had the challenge of leaning more and more on the capitalist side and so the social services began to suffer - although I don’t have a full explanation here.
Those examples do show that the protection of blended systems need to be ever vigilant of charting an independent domestic and foreign policy while keeping an eye on social and demographic changes. I wouldn’t call them fragile but a determined predator can find weaknesses and a strong and vigilant government/public service sector needs to be there. This also needs to be populated mostly by people who are motivated by “socialist values” (don’t have a better description) and patriotism, but knowledgeable and intelligent enough to know when to step in, how, and when to let things be.
Just my 2 cents. Not an easy problem to solve but I have high hopes for your book.
Happy New Years!
Happy New Year, Phoenix!
I appreciate your approval.
I believe the symptoms you've just described can be well explained by the mechanisms outlined in this article.
And you're right, a strong government is always needed to protect the country. Essentially, I described this in 'Economics and Empires 3.'
The point is, there is no universal golden path. Each country needs to find the appropriate balance for its unique composition and social structure. And as you rightly pointed out, things change. Therefore, the system or the government must also be capable and willing to evolve.
Thank you Aleks.
I’ve learnt a lot from you.
Ultimately socialism works best when there are less pronounced differences within the group however large that group is.
Things like unintegrated immigration, Wealth disparity and a so called closed rank at the top, religious differences left to fester (usually when one religion is expansionist against a static/declining or insular looking one. Amongst other factors these start breaking the concept of socialism. In a bubble the concept of a socialist society is ideal, but the works is what it is and people are what they are and both those factors mean the best we can hope for as far as a socialist society is one which incorporates the socialist principles that everyone (well the vast majority) agrees are fundamentally just, fair and to be desired within a country. Economics pure and simple is fundamentally anti socialist by its most successful economic models.
Just my two rubles worth
Thank you Steve!
Canada's system is falling apart as well, partly like Sweden's, partly like the US. Its multiculturalism has created a lot of divides as it's dissolved the Canadian identity. Health care funding is going downhill and the politics re COVID absolutely destroyed a sense of trust in each other and the government.
I don't know where Canada will end up, but it does have the advantage of resources. It's more treated like a 51st state than a pure colony. But no Canadian leader has a backbone anymore.
Agreed. Only comment is I wouldn’t say it’s not Canada’s multiculturalism that has created its problems per se. Canada has been multicultural for decades and in my opinion has been able to integrate immigrants even better than the US. It’s the speed and type of immigrants that is the problem.
Take Quebec for example. One of the criteria they prefer for immigrants is that they speak French. Now, if you want to keep French as the dominant language and that’s your only concern then fine. But it’s not only ethically people from France that speak French. Many north and sub Saharan Africans do too. I’m sure there are plenty of hardworking law abiding people there who would want to come to Canada. But if that’s your main criteria you’re not going to always get people who are compatible and willing to internalize Canadian values.
Also the rate at which immigration has accelerated over the past 30 years is mind boggling. It’s one thing if there is a specific demand for it but already Canada was barely able to provide social services for its current population. The new immigrants became, unfortunately, a net burden.
Like Aleks, especially for traditionally immigration nations,I believe immigration can be a good thing .. but only if it’s done right.
I also think that being so close to the US has had a negative influence on Canada, especially since the start of the unipolar moment in 1991. Canada does have a lot of resources but they’re not used properly. There is no reason Canada cannot become like Russia but the influence of the US doesn’t allow it to properly develop, whether through brain drain or control of policy.
Wonderful conclusion to a well-researched series, Bravo! A few comments, if I may:
I. The current economic-military structure of the US has three near impossible features to overcome:
a. The Federal Reserve
b. Fiat currency
c. Perversion of morals, beginning with the "Booomer Generation," and down through the Millennials.
II. Due to the three features, the political-economic system is no longer free market, capitalistic, nor socialistic; however it is an "Americanized Fascism," system. The disgusting orgy of power between government, industry (including MIC), and banking will not permit any of your wonderful ideas regarding the $500 billion saved from military expenditures. The only salvation is for the system to collapse and to hope a better system is built (Constitutional Monarchy?).
III. Naval power is worth less nowadays. LCS class Liberty failures, hypersonics > aircraft carriers, and I'd posit that US submarines are sub-par (see what iI did there 😃😃) to the new Russian class boomers and fast attacks. The largest differentiator being: reactor cooling systems of the new Russian boats, which utilize natural circulation of cooling water; US boats require sound "isolated," pumps to circulate coolant to the reactor core.
a. Side note: I served 8 years as a reactor operator on a Sturgeon Class fast attack submarine.
IV. I like the idea of pegging currencies to gold to facilitate trade. The best option, in my opinion, would be to have one standard date for the conversion, say: 1 Jan 2024. "Value," of gold is traded based in USD. If USD loses its value due to de-dollarization, then it will be more expensive for other countries to accumulate gold. Couple that with Russia (BRICS+) countries being more accommodating to new members (low credit score or allowing for defaulting of USD denominated debt) will help grow and strengthen BRICS+.
My fear, shared with many of my friends and colleagues, is that war within the US is unavoidable. Half of the country will not accept the election results if either front runner (currently Biden and Trump) wins, with emotions stoked at least as high as they were in 1860. The collapse has been ongoing slowly, we're about to enter the rapid and terminal phase.
Cheers from Cheyenne!
Hello Kotanraju,
Thank you for your great comment!
It provides a valuable addition to the article.
Indeed, the tensions are high...
It's going to be a long and difficult process to move past current ideologies of Socialism vs Capitalism. Certainly for me. I've been a longtime libertarian but I see the contradictions and conflicts that inevitably surface as a society moves towards one or the other of the poles. A robust commons is essential to human flourishing, and although it does not come without costs or compromise, it is a good and reasonable goal and it should be something all peoples can agree with and work towards.
Thanks, Ike!
Absolutely. The key question is always about finding the right solution or degree of blend for a specific situation.
And the answer varies for every single country around the world.
An absolute storming end to a great 6 part series mate.
Thanks, Steve :)
Peaceful New Year!
I have a few comments and I will probably post them later, after some thought.
Regarding the fate of USA, having read a few articles on the current socio-political situation there and heard stories from relatives and other people who live there, I personally think we may know it already with this year elections (if they take place!). I mean: even Hollywood writers have released a trailer of what could happen... :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDyQxtg0V2w
Simplicius The Thinker wrote an interesting article on this topic in April last year: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/on-secession-and-civil-war
Regarding Europe, I think we also face risk of civil unrest, depending on how things develop. You also mention possibility of war between countries, e.g. between Germany and Poland. Although I have read about post-WWII compensation disputes, I think and hope that a war in Central Europe is very unlikely. Instead, I personally rate civil unrest against current political elites more likely, if things do not get better soon.
Everything is possible indeed...
Very unfortunate events could be ahead!
Let's pray for the opposite.
It's looking like the US is finally going to steal Russia's frozen reserves - this should hasten the flight from western financial institutions and instruments. Anyway, it's now impossible to hide the fact that the US engages in economic and financial theft. As for 2030, Martin Armstrong's Socrates program agrees 2030 US finito.
Yes, I described that here: https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/economics-and-business-i
(Theft)
He also says that starting 2027 things will get very bad in the US.
Same as Aleks, he says starting 2032 things will get better.
Synchronicity?
Computer programs, remote viewers, take your pick - there are patterns to tap into depending on sensory framework. It's already pretty bad and can mostly get worse because imbeciles are in charge who missed Saturday Night Live, more cowbell.
We need to be ruled by pelicans and hummingbirds, or at least cats with sharp claws, rather than bidendiaper's dogs
Would be an improvement, I guess :)
And I like cats :)
Happy new year Alex thanks for this update but sorry you are wrong on everything(nothing against you). I'm not Russian(never been there even less in Ukraine). I would have loved to visit Moscow and Petersburg before I die (I'm elderly), but it will not happen as these cities will probably cease to exist as we know them. Almost everybody is saying Russia is winning, Ukraine has x hundreds of thousands of KIA..probable. Russia has less losses but Russia 'smo' is understaffed since day one for reasons we all know, not going to repeat. ATTENTION, I'm not a nato or ukie troll or like Saker used to say a strelkovite hura 'patriot' aka 6th column. I followed this conflict since dec 2013 when Maidan started under the snow on a light mode (as in Beograd today but take care in Serbia snipers could arrive in Jan Feb for exactly another Maidan 2.0).Counteroffensive failed it is true but now Nato and the Junta go on doubling down and full escalation mainly with terror acts(tonight already 4 deads again in Donetsk in a Belgorod 2.0, but for Donetsk it is almost routine for..10 years). F 16 and probably Taurus or other types of long range missiles will follow soon (if they are not yet secretly arrived?). Ukies are on semi defensive trying for P R to hold some places on the front on three places. Lot say time is on Russia side, I don't think so, no more. It is now more existential for NATO than for Russia. False flags will follow (chemical, mini nukes..) then they will strike deep inside Russia (with dozens of thousands of deads and mass destruction). They put everything on before Russian election in March(the 17th if not wrong?). Why because the plan is still and only regime change (killing as many Russians and destroying as much infra as possible also). What will be Putin reaction after for exemple thousands of civilians are killed in a big city like Moscow? Russian AD is very good but not perfect and impossible to put a S 400 at every corner.I'm afraid as usual there will be no reaction as before when all red lines have been crossed...then nato + neocons will triple down etc don't forget it is a POTUS year and they will do ANYTHING to impede Trump to come back eventhough I'm not sure he would change much as real power is not in the WH but in Deep State Dept with the Nuland, Blinken clique...being Biden (if still alive) or anyone else for the dems it will be another warmonger why not Hillary, then be sure WWIII is a done deal.
But the big game changer (not in weapons for once) will be the US forcing the EU de facto to steal RU Central bank assets (not clear is private RU assets will be in the deal?).The main goal of the anglos + (Japan) being to destroy Europe economy not really Russia which can retaliate if true(?) as they say they have the same amount of Western assets they also can steal. Not so sure maybe a few billions but 300 B I don't think so. First of all I'm not even sure the 'West has 300 B, last article read talking about 89 B mainly in Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Germany and Italy, almost nothing in the anglos US UK CA..a few billions. Anglos want to kill the Euro reputation, Euro has always be a firewall for USD just in case ''we will kill the Euro'' to protect the dollar. Logically many believe: omg Global South will be afraid to be the next after Russia and take their money or properties out from Europe/US/UK. The total opposite will happen, BRICS countries (Argentina already left before entering.. lol)will be blackmailed by US, look you leave BRICS, you put sanctions on Russia or we steal your money as well. BRICS will collapse in no time even China will abandon Russia against some good temporary deal, Iran and Venezuela have already been blackmailed (Iran got 7 or 9 billions to not intervene in Gaza, Venezuela right to sell oil to big US raf to replace RU oil, no potus can win an election with WTI above 85/90 USD).Only DPRK will still support Russia. Of course it will take time but politicos like Orban and Fiko fake pro russian will be bought for a few dozens of billions, Serbia if Vucic stays in power will start sanctionning Russia as well. Turkey(not in brics), Georgia etc will follow. RU will be on a World embargo for everything which will rapidly collapse the economy for real this time.Then we will reach a point let's bet on oct surprise when Washington will ask full capitulation of Russia or first strike, if the answer is no. With sane people this kind of situation would never happen in a normal World but don't forget that Nuland and co are fanatics in a personnal vendetta, Nuland even said during a think tank meeting (years ago)that 12 up to 15 millions Americans (of course f..the EU also) could die (in a RU nuke retaliation strike) but it would be ''acceptable as price'' to destroy Russia in exchange. It is clear this crazie has a plan in her sick brain. Don't believe Biden even if he is catholic is less neocon than the three others. Real power still being in the City of London not in Wall Street as many wrongly believe, they will go for nukes as not doing it would be such a loss of face and the biggest NATO US UK EU defeat since these entities exist. Of course it would also mean the end of their career (same for fake journos, pseudo experts etc..) the all Rules based order would collapse including stocks exchange which could be wipep out of 60 % of Western wealth.
This is why WWIII is a done deal eventhough it seems crazy, suicidal(it is), insane they will bet on their self proclaimed superiority and mainly they know VP is a moderate which for them means weak, will never retaliate, let's go team nuke, we are so near of total victory price money will be Russia immense minerals, oil, gas resources etc...which will help us to survive and get even richer. RU oligarchs will found their money back. For Russia it will be total humiliation. For China message will be 'forget about Taiwan ok?'.
Of course I really hope to be wrong, but sorry the VP policy to never retaliate(except a few missiles or gerans) when all red lines have been crossed several times was a total mistake it will probably appear in future history books as the biggest mistake ever made by a leader during a war?
VP wanted to avoid a fight with NATO by using attrition and grinding ok I fully understand usually with sane people it used to work in the past but not with neocons simply watch what is happening now in Gaza. The West only understands force but a credible force, problem after almost two years even Donbass is not liberated and dreamers talk about Odessa, Kiev, Kharkov... Russia does not scare anybody anymore (true they were for a while on 02/24/22).Russia would need 2.5 millions mobics + regular soldiers and not sure they could provide weaponery for so many. Estimated losses would be at least 1 million KIA, then you need to occupy, police, fight guerilla, logistics and rebuild (with which money?). Though it will never happen. This is why today I announce you the (very sad) defeat of Russia the end of the Russian federation. Once again hope to be wrong 100 %.
Option B for Nato without nukes is entering Ukraine , no fly zone, a 'à la Syria' no win no lose for both sides...which means defeat for Russia as here on her doorsteps. Crimea (a British obsession) will be lost later as will face 24/7 bombing from Nato from Odessa and from the other side of the Dniepr.Crimea is the ONLY objective of NATO since Maidan Odessa being nr 2, the rest of Ukraine is irrelevent on a strategic point,wheat and agri has already been sold to Blackrock and co.
Biggest loser after Russia will be Germany and the EU but it was the real goal.
I think you are missing several points. The most important of which is that NATO shadow owners are not suicidal and they don’t have any wish to die or live in a apocalypse Mad Max world
1 - Ukraine going into defensive still has tremendous loses due to the air supremacy , artillery of Russia.
2 - Russia is not in a hurry at all. If you check industry in Russia is tremendously developing day by day. Indeed Russian government is puting far more attention into developing their technology in the holes left by the west than in the SMO itself.
3 - Time is on Russia/China side. Only advantage of the West is microchips. I work in that industry and I can assure you that China will need maximum 3 years to catch up with the West. Reasons why are too long to explain but you can trust me on this
4 - Terrrorisr attacks in Belgorod, or some ship sunk does not change nothing. Terrorist attacks have never achieve to make any country surrender. Not Spain with its basque terrorist, neither Russia with Chechens, neither any other. In general terrorism do the opposite. It’s only effective if it’s manage to kill some leader.
5 - NATO will never use nukes for anything. People who rule NATO knows perfectly that even loosing supremacy they would live a life of luxury in the US. They will never take such step, and you can see it confirmed through the SMO. They want a world where to live.
6 - NATO without nukes is hardly frightening for Russia. What can do NATO? Send land troops to die and create issues? Send F35 full of issues? Send all F16? They will not send nothing.
Half countries of NATO would withdraw they day they need to send troops to fight Russia starting by Portugal, Spain, Italy and followed by France and Turkey
Germany has no army. You has Poland, UK and few more. And they have to fight in very bad conditions.
Just look the map, the front is hundred of km in the East of Ukraine. How you will move troops there? How to love your planes? Your supply lines?
It would be the nightmare of any strategist.
Hi Natoistan,
I really appreciate your comment(s).
Unfortunately, this time I'm of a different opinion.
The path you described is the path to "The End".
And no one is interested in that.
Things will settle and peace will come.
I don't claim that my version is the ultimate truth but I assume that it is a very likely scenario.
Rest, my dear pal of 42 degrees North, 123 West. Our time is short, we are on shelf life. At some point I gave myself permission to detach, a bit. Your eye catches all, I do notice. Thank you. Old Lady with a virtual kitty cat❤️🐈⬛