I would agree with everything except your percentages at the end of the article. 10% and 20% are both far too high. We should always remember that the elites of the Western world are going to stay extremely wealthy, whatever happens to their poor deteriorating nations. Why would they want to push a button that destroys all that for them?…
I would agree with everything except your percentages at the end of the article. 10% and 20% are both far too high. We should always remember that the elites of the Western world are going to stay extremely wealthy, whatever happens to their poor deteriorating nations. Why would they want to push a button that destroys all that for them? I would put the chances of Armageddon at 1-2%, or even less. As for a 20% chance of the US hanging on to its hegemonic role, that is totally unrealistic and inflated. US military power is crumbling far more rapidly than most predicted, and as that is the ultimate guarantor of hegemony the trajectory of empire is plain. One indicator is their total inability to keep Red Sea shipping lanes open, a complete embarrassment for a supposed maritime power. Another is their bowing to Niger's demands for a swift exit. At one time, they would have eaten poor nations like Niger for breakfast. I could go and on with examples, as they are legion, but you get the point. As for the real reason why US power is declining precipitously, it is because it is decaying from the inside out. That is why it will not be reversed - at least not for a generation or two, by which time it will be far too late.
I would agree with everything except your percentages at the end of the article. 10% and 20% are both far too high. We should always remember that the elites of the Western world are going to stay extremely wealthy, whatever happens to their poor deteriorating nations. Why would they want to push a button that destroys all that for them? I would put the chances of Armageddon at 1-2%, or even less. As for a 20% chance of the US hanging on to its hegemonic role, that is totally unrealistic and inflated. US military power is crumbling far more rapidly than most predicted, and as that is the ultimate guarantor of hegemony the trajectory of empire is plain. One indicator is their total inability to keep Red Sea shipping lanes open, a complete embarrassment for a supposed maritime power. Another is their bowing to Niger's demands for a swift exit. At one time, they would have eaten poor nations like Niger for breakfast. I could go and on with examples, as they are legion, but you get the point. As for the real reason why US power is declining precipitously, it is because it is decaying from the inside out. That is why it will not be reversed - at least not for a generation or two, by which time it will be far too late.