Since Argentina is perhaps my main specialty, I'll add my 2 cents:
1) Milei has a background similar to Zelensky in politics: An outsider who never has had an experience in public office and who jumped from the media to the presidency. In the case of Milei, as of a economics "expert" in the media pushing for extreme Straussian policies. So I don't expect him to work for the people, on the contrary. In fact, he already announced a freeze of public works, triggering layoffs in construction contractors. Several lawsuits await from these companies after his commencement.
2) Dollarizing the Argentine economy is unfeasible. 70% of Argentine GDP is related to domestic consumption (unlike Ecuador, Panama or El Salvador, where exports and foreign remittances constitute the bulk of the national income). Besides, the Argentine GDP revolves around USD 0.5 Trillion. Too big to flood with bills.
Lacking its own political structure and thus its own seasoned set of leaders, Milei cannot fill its government with his own secretaries and other functionaries (remember: From screen to office). This forced him to rely on former president Macri, who is much better equipped and who is currently "colonizing" his structure. Macri's side is against dollarization, so it won't happen (apparently Macri was able to impose the minister of economy).
What may happen, though, is an hyper-indebtment prepared by the very same people who wreak havoc between 2016 and 2019 with overindebtment, this time using as collateral the public pension fund "sustainability funds". They will try to privatize the public oil company as well as the public airline, but they need 2/3 of the legislative chamber and so far they are very, very far from getting that number.
3) The central bank (BCRA) won't be dissolved. He doesn't have the votes to impose such a law and some justices on the supreme court already wared that ditching the peso is unconstitutional. He promises to do so anyway (maybe in revenge for having been fired from the BCRA when doing an internship long time ago), but it's wishful thinking as of now.
4) As of today, Milei is backtracking on his threats towards Brazil and China. Now he promises good relations with both.. He has no choice: Among his main constituents now are those agribusiness tycoons who want to keep the main markets open for his crops (China and Brazil). He got to the point that his to-be-foreign minister is asking the current ambassador in Brazil to continue on his position. A clear sign of continuity rather than rupture.
All of this points to an acceptance of the membership in BRICS, although with zero participation and no support for any anti Western position.
I highly doubt that this person will remain in office a year from now. It's already 2 weeks before his commencement and his image of rebel outsider already got diluted by his alliance with Macri, a very unpopular former president. Milei only has 38 deputies out of 257 and 7 senators out of 72. The opposition, even discounting Macri legislators, can clearly add up 2/3 of the chambers and trigger an impeachment.
It's absurd but consistent with the weltanschauung of the Argentine elite and most of its middle class: The life mission of making money, not paying taxes, secure a big rural estate that provides enough export crops to make a living from it and enjoy life travelling and partying. Basically, being a rich parasite.
The other weltanschauung (we may call it nationalistic) is totally different and shares many common points with the current Russian view: A social state with an independent economy and a sovereign policy. The 3 pillars of Peronism are social justice, economic independence and political sovereignty (non-alignment). Radicalism used to have similar concepts.
I roughly assess the proportions of 50-65% for the former and 35-50% for the latter. Or better said, there is a "strip" of undecided that tilt the support for one or the other depending on the disasters made by previous administration and the world scenario (for instance, Cristina Kirchner's landslide winning in 2011 following the global financial subprime crisis of 2008-2009)
Even though the country has more or less always lived under a "liberal" rule, the nationalistic project has always survived and in several opportunities grabbed power and implemented reforms towards its view (for instance, having very strong worker unions thanks to Peronism). Both projects are almost in continuous struggle since 1810.
That makes the basis of what historians and sociologists call "the catastrophic tie": No project is able to consolidate. This in turn enables a continuous wealth distribution struggle: Private companies aim for a bigger share of wealth and raise prices, and unions fight for salaries increases to retain purchase power, all in a vicious cycle with every side upping the ante.
That particular situation explains the main reason for the inflationary folly that we experiment there. Even though inflation is a multi causal phenomenon, availability of foreign currency, pesos emission, fiscal deficit, etc., do not impact as strongly as the mechanism described above.
When people is caught in the cogs of this dreadful inflation machine and cannot cope to make month ends meet, they get desperate and choose the opposing "country view" to that it currently holds power and proves ineffective to control inflation.
Almost everywhere, the Public is on a swing, ready to jump off as it swings highest, thinking they'll land somewhere better without breaking a leg. Such desperation and stupid hopefulness is musical populism. The Public will always take it up the arse until they can bear it no more, then it runs in the opposite direction where someone else will put it through the same process under a different name. No country will ever hold democracy, a balance between libertarianism and community, unless its well educated to think for itself and society. Any politician that doesn't change a generation through better schooling was a liar to begin with.
Thank You, Andres. It is hard to get good reads on Milei/Argentina, and yours is among the best I have seen. Negotiations are bound to be accelerated now.
Milei clearly needs to play-both-sides to have any "advantage" in geopolitics.
What do you think of his "dollarizing" Argentina with $US borrowed from China, to be repaid in long-term contracts for beef, grain, oil and other real products? This could be a form of selective-default in 2-steps. He needs to weaken the $US-debt-holding position of Argentine financial-elites, as I understand it.
China won't lend money to Argentina to dollarize. During the last 50 years it repeatedly happened that foreign reserves were systematically used to feed capital flights to safer jurisdictions, be that legal or taxed profits or illegal and evaded ones. The Chinese don't need to perform a too deep inquiry to visualize this clear trend. It happened between 1978 and 1982 (Petrodollar crisis), between 1992 and 2001 (Dollar-Peso peg or "convertibilidad" until it exploded) and between 2016 and 2019 (Macri government).
When Nestor Kirchner and Cristina Kirchner used BCRA reserves to pay full the IMF loan and to undertake other debt lowering initiatives, the establishment went crazy against them. They pretended that Argentina kept indebted but let the free trade of currency (individuals able to buy huge amounts of USD) backed up by BCRA reserves.
The Chinese know that the local elites are rather parasitic and unproductive, more prone to a crony capitalism and to abuse of dominant positions in the several oligopolic markets (for instance, just 3 companies share almost 90% of the domestic flour market). and are always averse to risk and prone to send their reserves to Uruguay, a tax haven or Wall Street.
Besides, the Dollar-Peso peg of the 90s showed that inflation took a long time to be under control and, although it was finally tamed, the country became clearly noncompetitive in USD terms. For instance, it was cheaper to buy oranges from Spain than to bring them from Entre Rios province (just 500 km away). Who would invest or even keep their savings in a unsustainable economy? It's an idea that can't even take off.
Thank You, Andres. The "local" Argentine elites are precisely the group which needs to accept losses, in order for the productive economy to be healthy, don't you think? The $US debts owed by Argentina are largely held by the Argentine financial class, who defend them locally, while the $US empire defends the $US globally.
China did this already with Russia in 2014, to allow Russia to get $US to make bond payments, and Russia accelerated pipeline development as payoff. Tom Luongo has been looking at that.
Clearly, Argentina is not Russia or Saudi Arabia, but the approach could be similar. It would have a certain elegance to defeat the dollar by "dollarizing".
In reality, the Argentine foreign debt is hold by the government. The local elites are very smart in unloading their burden, nationalizing losses such as in 1982 (Cavallo swapped the USD $20 B foreign denominated debt into Pesos and the state taking the debt in USDs, diluting the private debt over time due to devaluation) and in 2002 (Duhalde providing a similar scheme to save conglomerates such as Galicia Group and Clarin Group).
A similar measure by China on Argentina would require a tremendous shift in cultural and behavioral principles of the Argentine elites, something still very far away.
I don't quite see how the Argentine government's external debt is held by the Argentine government, though I know there have been multiple cycles of obfuscation and partial default over decades.
Who specifically holds that vulnerable Argentine debt at high interest?
"I don't quite see how the Argentine government's external debt is held by the Argentine government"
Oh, I misinterpreted you. Argentine bond holders are very probably the same ones who flew out their savings in USD to other jurisdictions, plus many institutional investors. A lot of debt is simply rollover of renegotiated debt. The state is the debtor.
"Who specifically holds that vulnerable Argentine debt at high interest?"
Investment funds, retirement funds. I remember that a previous default impacted a retirement fond of teachers in the US which got very exposed to Argentine bonds. Also, many Italian small investors who were wrongfully advised.
The US refuses dollarization, as it is a potential problem for them with this kind of psychopath. He was supposed to meet Biden it seems it has been cancelled. China will keep Argentina in Brics, he already said he could stay with a low profile but will not deny contacts with brics countries (of Course he must pay back yuan credit). Buenos Aires did not vote for this idiot, this is where the 'agri deep state' is located. Argentina sells soya to China and a lot, China needs Argentina more than Lula. If he really leaves he could be JFKised one day. Dollarisation(failed one) is not new in both Argentina and even Brazil (under Collor de Mello a total failure which ended with 2.000 % inflation (so called congelamento) it has been tried several times, during one year the currency is artificially maintained at parity but of cause Argentina and the US have nothing in common in term of gdp real or fake, no QE possible, no increase in salaries, explosion of poverty with violence leading to regime change with some 'help' if Needed. Except soya and the best beef in the World there is nothing else in Argentina 4 big cities with Buenos Aires as megalopolis where 60 % of the gdp is concentrated.
Good candidate to replace Argentina is Venezuela (21 % of World heavy oil reserves), it would even more transform BRICS + in some kind of OPEC ++ with monopoly on oil pricing and a good deal of natgas as well + multiple minerals. Pakistan and Nigeria(oil power as well) are official candidates for 2024(+- 475 millions people and growing fast). Indonesia would be great as well. Argentina has zero potential of growth and a relatively low population, little industry( Chile is richer in minerals but US and former nazi controlled).
High natural-resource-to-population ratio is a very good condition to be in for the next few decades, if one is not invaded, I think. Russia and the US are in that position, as is Australia.
Political adjustments need to be made. Globalist parasites are destroying things for the citizens.
Ukrainian media said "accidentally" that Ukraine already lost 1.1 million troops. If these are the dead, there has to be at least 2 million casualties in total with the wounded. I'm trying to figure out that if their losses are really so high, how is this possible, with what kind of weapons?? Artillery is not very effective against entrenched positions. So are these the TOS-1 thermobaric salvos causing so high casualties? How many soldiers can one salvo destroy? 30? 50? 100? Or are these the FAB-500 strikes? It would be interesting to know. Now Russia is even using RBK-500 cluster bombs.
1.1 million, if true, can only be with the wounded.
Ukraine would be out of the game with 1.1 million dead.
Which unfortunately, still can happen.
My estimations are revolving around 550k dead, which is still horrific.
Well, Russia has expanded its reconnaissance capabilities.
Russia is using A.I. scanning algorithms to quickly scan large parts of Ukraine almost in real-time with its satellites. Which leads immediately to target acquisition. Either the human command is choosing then the means to destroy the target. You mentioned a lot of weapons in the Russian arsenal. But they are also more means.
Ukraine's means to defend itself is diminishing as well as their available equipment.
They need to invest ever more infantry to achieve the same results. And this will only increase. Maybe not during the winter months, but right after.
"Avdeevka is an interesting place currently. Many people are comparing the situation with Artemovsk (Bakhmut). There are some parallels, but there are also some differences. I’m going to name a few."
The appropriate comparison imho, is Debaltseve......
In any event, Ukr. is a like a middle weight boxer, outclassed to start with by stepping into the ring with a heavyweight.....middleweights moving up in classes have never been successful as a rule.
They, the Uks, carrying the metaphor a little further are 'punched out'.
The high tide and ebb, was approx. the 3 weeks following their taking of Robotyne, they couldn't get a foothold in Verbove.
In short they cant get past the 1st rank Russian fortification line...thats the end of the line. The rest is now, a horrid waste.
For Argentina, I’ve heard credible arguments that even if Milei wants to dollarize and abolish the central bank, it might not be feasible. First, because of mechanical reasons (you need dollars to dollazrize) and second, the parliament will block him.
Still, having such a country with a staunch Western oriented Zionist leader is not a good thing for BRICS. In fact, the best thing is for him to withdraw, and if he doesn’t, for BRICS to withdraw the invitation. At this time, I see no benefit from Argentina joining. Let them suffer the consequences and later on they will make better partners.
For now I say good riddance. Dodged a bullet with that one.
Israel seems determined to solve the Palestinian Question once and for all by expelling them to the neighboring Arab countries and killing who doesn’t leave.
I see that sparking a regional war.
From the US perspective, this is a distraction and a conflict they don’t want to enter. There is no gain from it. Quite the opposite.
From the other great powers perspective that is a good place and time. If you’re going to inflict a defeat on the US, do it far away from you, with someone else’s resources, at a time of your choosing, and using a target that the US has no choice but to defend.
The countries in the region do not want an escalation but they might not have much choice in the matter.
Some believe that Israel is controlled by the US. It isn’t. That might have been the case 50 years ago. It isn’t anymore and hasn’t been for a while. In fact, at least when it comes to Israeli interests, Israel is in full control of US policy.
Putting it all together, Israel - specifically Netanyahu - will continue bombing Gaza and escalating in the West Bank, the regional countries will have no choice but to respond, the US will then have no choice but to respond, the other great powers let it happen and supply military and financial support, and bob’s your uncle.
Of course Israel can choose a different course and we don’t get the escalations. But the point still stands. Whether we get a regional war or not is entirely in the hands of Israel (i.e. Netanyahu and his war cabinet).
"Israel seems determined to solve the Palestinian Question once and for all by expelling them to the neighboring Arab countries and killing who doesn’t leave.
I see that sparking a regional war."
Israel's neighbors, and, for that matter, Hezbollah, really are determined to avoid any sort of escalation, as that will bring the United States in.
The problem is that when Israel finishes its ethnic cleansing and genocide in Gaza, the Israelis will want to move on to the West Bank and probably a war on Iran as well, which will require their American goons to participate more actively.
I hope it’s not true, but Milei’s dollarization policy and outspoken support for Israel reads a lot like a US asset in anarcho-capitalist clothing. Will he ultimately be used to discredit pro-freedom philosophy? Or is he, despite it all, the real thing?
Russia can't afford to rebuild Ukraine as it was. They should redesign it and only build what and when is absolutely minimum necessity. Also, Lwow would really deserve to be burned, but perhaps it will not.
Btw, Ukraine is already sending women to the first line trenches, there are already videos of them being hit.
I thought so too, which explained the reluctance to damage and destroy too much of the infrastructure. But after their deepening relations with China and the rest of the Free World, I think Ukraine under Russia would be a far better reconstruction and development project than it would be under the US and EU tycoons. China has been able to create entire cities in a few years time, entire railways in even less time. I'm sure there will be plenty of development potential.
read everything you write, I do agree with you assessment of the "conflict" inside the power structure in ukraine, is bread for the masses, and there is no safe heaven for the clown in chief, he will be found and executed bandera-style, by his own, even in miami. Avdeevka is the first post-Wagner assault to a fortified position, a master class even through the glass of telegram channels, is really impressive, also the scope of the front has change completely, now russia is capable of defending while containing and attacking, all at the same time, a master class
I am not so sure. Cheerleading of "negotiations ", " peace" and "winding down operations" of some of the pro-Kremlin blogger looks suspicious. I also saw, although in Western media, that Russian public opinion in October for the first time turned in favor of stopping the war. If that's true (I think it is) that means that Kremnlin throu opinion makers has been preparing nation for some kind of deal which would end everything.
The terms described by Hersh look very bad in comparison to the Russian goals....
See, there are many reasons why such an outcome is impossible. Don't get me wrong. I'm pro peace. But we need to put on the Russian hat(perspective).
1) Their constitution requires it to free the occupied (new) territories. There is no possibility to not do that. If that is militariliy impossible, than the consitution and military doctrine is requiring to use nukes. (Of course not against Ukraine, but against its backers). I described that in all possible details in several articles.
2) NATO mustn't be on the territory of Ukraine from a Russian perspective because of the flight time of missiles to Moscow from there. (Baltics are contained by Russia from all sides).
3) Russia is now completley dominating the battlefield. Why should it suddenly abondon its territories and Russian people that are waiting for being liberated by the Russian army if it is very very short of entirely destroy Ukraine's army and mobilization potential?
Believe me, this whole story is entirely a duck.
I believe, that it could be launched as a PsyOps which is directed to the Ukrainian people. To sow this rumors in Ukraine to create hope in peoples minds. And if this hopes do not materialize they would be frustrated and their whole anger would be directed against their government. Which would be beneficial to Russia. And to Ukraine as well. The earlier Ukraine collapses, the better because lives can be saved and the suffering shortened.
Anybody else find it interesting that just when many of parts of the world, led by Russia, are dumping the dollar, suddenly a large country in the South of the US (What Washington calls ''the backyard'') is announcing it will abandon its own sovereignty and use the dollar instead? Basically creating a very large demand for the greens? Very odd coincidence?
I would try and pay more attention on Frances struggle to retain their position in Africa. Without the cheap almost free resources france has been able to secure from Africa and is still finessing their economy is toast. AFRICOM has been busy also.
"Over the past several years, there have been a series of coups in Africa – precisely, eight coups in three years."
There are those who say that all of the coups and crap going on in Africa would not be able to happen if Russia, China, and Iran were not otherwise occupied. When ever the focus is drawn to big geopolitical events you can bet some seriously effed up stuff is happening elsewhere.
Each day presents anew🌅 The days blend, weeks, months…years. So grateful for your sub stack, and your editors, winks. Old lady with a virtual cat❤️🐈⬛ PS: looking very forward to Empires and Economies #6💙🇷🇺❤️
Re Argentina, I don’t entirely agree. The economy is effectively in USD anyway, no one holds local currency, people only use it because they have to and the central bank policies and official exchange rates create massive black markets. This creates massive friction.
So removing the friction should create a significant economic boost.
And I understand it, the proposal is to deregulate currency rather than switch to USD. This allows everyone to trade in whatever they like. Near term that’s USD because that’s mostly what they already use. But Yuan, bitcoin, gold, a new currency... all usable on equal footing. This is a core part of anarcho capitalism.
So rather than putting the country under the fed, they give the people the maximum adaptability to changing circumstances. They’ll use whatever currency works best for the individual.
Hi Aleks, thanks for the update.
Since Argentina is perhaps my main specialty, I'll add my 2 cents:
1) Milei has a background similar to Zelensky in politics: An outsider who never has had an experience in public office and who jumped from the media to the presidency. In the case of Milei, as of a economics "expert" in the media pushing for extreme Straussian policies. So I don't expect him to work for the people, on the contrary. In fact, he already announced a freeze of public works, triggering layoffs in construction contractors. Several lawsuits await from these companies after his commencement.
2) Dollarizing the Argentine economy is unfeasible. 70% of Argentine GDP is related to domestic consumption (unlike Ecuador, Panama or El Salvador, where exports and foreign remittances constitute the bulk of the national income). Besides, the Argentine GDP revolves around USD 0.5 Trillion. Too big to flood with bills.
Lacking its own political structure and thus its own seasoned set of leaders, Milei cannot fill its government with his own secretaries and other functionaries (remember: From screen to office). This forced him to rely on former president Macri, who is much better equipped and who is currently "colonizing" his structure. Macri's side is against dollarization, so it won't happen (apparently Macri was able to impose the minister of economy).
What may happen, though, is an hyper-indebtment prepared by the very same people who wreak havoc between 2016 and 2019 with overindebtment, this time using as collateral the public pension fund "sustainability funds". They will try to privatize the public oil company as well as the public airline, but they need 2/3 of the legislative chamber and so far they are very, very far from getting that number.
3) The central bank (BCRA) won't be dissolved. He doesn't have the votes to impose such a law and some justices on the supreme court already wared that ditching the peso is unconstitutional. He promises to do so anyway (maybe in revenge for having been fired from the BCRA when doing an internship long time ago), but it's wishful thinking as of now.
4) As of today, Milei is backtracking on his threats towards Brazil and China. Now he promises good relations with both.. He has no choice: Among his main constituents now are those agribusiness tycoons who want to keep the main markets open for his crops (China and Brazil). He got to the point that his to-be-foreign minister is asking the current ambassador in Brazil to continue on his position. A clear sign of continuity rather than rupture.
All of this points to an acceptance of the membership in BRICS, although with zero participation and no support for any anti Western position.
I highly doubt that this person will remain in office a year from now. It's already 2 weeks before his commencement and his image of rebel outsider already got diluted by his alliance with Macri, a very unpopular former president. Milei only has 38 deputies out of 257 and 7 senators out of 72. The opposition, even discounting Macri legislators, can clearly add up 2/3 of the chambers and trigger an impeachment.
Excellent comment. Thank you!
I just put it on my "Notes".
It’s an absurd situation worthy of our absurd world.
It's absurd but consistent with the weltanschauung of the Argentine elite and most of its middle class: The life mission of making money, not paying taxes, secure a big rural estate that provides enough export crops to make a living from it and enjoy life travelling and partying. Basically, being a rich parasite.
The other weltanschauung (we may call it nationalistic) is totally different and shares many common points with the current Russian view: A social state with an independent economy and a sovereign policy. The 3 pillars of Peronism are social justice, economic independence and political sovereignty (non-alignment). Radicalism used to have similar concepts.
I roughly assess the proportions of 50-65% for the former and 35-50% for the latter. Or better said, there is a "strip" of undecided that tilt the support for one or the other depending on the disasters made by previous administration and the world scenario (for instance, Cristina Kirchner's landslide winning in 2011 following the global financial subprime crisis of 2008-2009)
Even though the country has more or less always lived under a "liberal" rule, the nationalistic project has always survived and in several opportunities grabbed power and implemented reforms towards its view (for instance, having very strong worker unions thanks to Peronism). Both projects are almost in continuous struggle since 1810.
That makes the basis of what historians and sociologists call "the catastrophic tie": No project is able to consolidate. This in turn enables a continuous wealth distribution struggle: Private companies aim for a bigger share of wealth and raise prices, and unions fight for salaries increases to retain purchase power, all in a vicious cycle with every side upping the ante.
That particular situation explains the main reason for the inflationary folly that we experiment there. Even though inflation is a multi causal phenomenon, availability of foreign currency, pesos emission, fiscal deficit, etc., do not impact as strongly as the mechanism described above.
When people is caught in the cogs of this dreadful inflation machine and cannot cope to make month ends meet, they get desperate and choose the opposing "country view" to that it currently holds power and proves ineffective to control inflation.
Almost everywhere, the Public is on a swing, ready to jump off as it swings highest, thinking they'll land somewhere better without breaking a leg. Such desperation and stupid hopefulness is musical populism. The Public will always take it up the arse until they can bear it no more, then it runs in the opposite direction where someone else will put it through the same process under a different name. No country will ever hold democracy, a balance between libertarianism and community, unless its well educated to think for itself and society. Any politician that doesn't change a generation through better schooling was a liar to begin with.
Thank You, Andres. It is hard to get good reads on Milei/Argentina, and yours is among the best I have seen. Negotiations are bound to be accelerated now.
Milei clearly needs to play-both-sides to have any "advantage" in geopolitics.
What do you think of his "dollarizing" Argentina with $US borrowed from China, to be repaid in long-term contracts for beef, grain, oil and other real products? This could be a form of selective-default in 2-steps. He needs to weaken the $US-debt-holding position of Argentine financial-elites, as I understand it.
Thanks for your comments.
China won't lend money to Argentina to dollarize. During the last 50 years it repeatedly happened that foreign reserves were systematically used to feed capital flights to safer jurisdictions, be that legal or taxed profits or illegal and evaded ones. The Chinese don't need to perform a too deep inquiry to visualize this clear trend. It happened between 1978 and 1982 (Petrodollar crisis), between 1992 and 2001 (Dollar-Peso peg or "convertibilidad" until it exploded) and between 2016 and 2019 (Macri government).
When Nestor Kirchner and Cristina Kirchner used BCRA reserves to pay full the IMF loan and to undertake other debt lowering initiatives, the establishment went crazy against them. They pretended that Argentina kept indebted but let the free trade of currency (individuals able to buy huge amounts of USD) backed up by BCRA reserves.
The Chinese know that the local elites are rather parasitic and unproductive, more prone to a crony capitalism and to abuse of dominant positions in the several oligopolic markets (for instance, just 3 companies share almost 90% of the domestic flour market). and are always averse to risk and prone to send their reserves to Uruguay, a tax haven or Wall Street.
Besides, the Dollar-Peso peg of the 90s showed that inflation took a long time to be under control and, although it was finally tamed, the country became clearly noncompetitive in USD terms. For instance, it was cheaper to buy oranges from Spain than to bring them from Entre Rios province (just 500 km away). Who would invest or even keep their savings in a unsustainable economy? It's an idea that can't even take off.
Thank You, Andres. The "local" Argentine elites are precisely the group which needs to accept losses, in order for the productive economy to be healthy, don't you think? The $US debts owed by Argentina are largely held by the Argentine financial class, who defend them locally, while the $US empire defends the $US globally.
China did this already with Russia in 2014, to allow Russia to get $US to make bond payments, and Russia accelerated pipeline development as payoff. Tom Luongo has been looking at that.
He thinks China is about to expend $US holdings to defend Saudi Arabia, an elegant move to undercut the petrodollar. https://tomluongo.me/2023/11/24/what-are-the-saudis-really-preparing-for/
Clearly, Argentina is not Russia or Saudi Arabia, but the approach could be similar. It would have a certain elegance to defeat the dollar by "dollarizing".
In reality, the Argentine foreign debt is hold by the government. The local elites are very smart in unloading their burden, nationalizing losses such as in 1982 (Cavallo swapped the USD $20 B foreign denominated debt into Pesos and the state taking the debt in USDs, diluting the private debt over time due to devaluation) and in 2002 (Duhalde providing a similar scheme to save conglomerates such as Galicia Group and Clarin Group).
A similar measure by China on Argentina would require a tremendous shift in cultural and behavioral principles of the Argentine elites, something still very far away.
Thank you for your reply, Andres.
I don't quite see how the Argentine government's external debt is held by the Argentine government, though I know there have been multiple cycles of obfuscation and partial default over decades.
Who specifically holds that vulnerable Argentine debt at high interest?
"I don't quite see how the Argentine government's external debt is held by the Argentine government"
Oh, I misinterpreted you. Argentine bond holders are very probably the same ones who flew out their savings in USD to other jurisdictions, plus many institutional investors. A lot of debt is simply rollover of renegotiated debt. The state is the debtor.
"Who specifically holds that vulnerable Argentine debt at high interest?"
Investment funds, retirement funds. I remember that a previous default impacted a retirement fond of teachers in the US which got very exposed to Argentine bonds. Also, many Italian small investors who were wrongfully advised.
Thank You, Aleks. I notice this development with Iran shooing-away the USS Eisenhower:
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/irgc-intercepts-us-warship-in-gulf-waters--forces-it-to-chan
Gosh :)))
I guess, we should pray on both sides of the ocean for peace :)))
On a similar topic: https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/how-to-lose-a-carrier-strike-group
The US refuses dollarization, as it is a potential problem for them with this kind of psychopath. He was supposed to meet Biden it seems it has been cancelled. China will keep Argentina in Brics, he already said he could stay with a low profile but will not deny contacts with brics countries (of Course he must pay back yuan credit). Buenos Aires did not vote for this idiot, this is where the 'agri deep state' is located. Argentina sells soya to China and a lot, China needs Argentina more than Lula. If he really leaves he could be JFKised one day. Dollarisation(failed one) is not new in both Argentina and even Brazil (under Collor de Mello a total failure which ended with 2.000 % inflation (so called congelamento) it has been tried several times, during one year the currency is artificially maintained at parity but of cause Argentina and the US have nothing in common in term of gdp real or fake, no QE possible, no increase in salaries, explosion of poverty with violence leading to regime change with some 'help' if Needed. Except soya and the best beef in the World there is nothing else in Argentina 4 big cities with Buenos Aires as megalopolis where 60 % of the gdp is concentrated.
Good candidate to replace Argentina is Venezuela (21 % of World heavy oil reserves), it would even more transform BRICS + in some kind of OPEC ++ with monopoly on oil pricing and a good deal of natgas as well + multiple minerals. Pakistan and Nigeria(oil power as well) are official candidates for 2024(+- 475 millions people and growing fast). Indonesia would be great as well. Argentina has zero potential of growth and a relatively low population, little industry( Chile is richer in minerals but US and former nazi controlled).
High natural-resource-to-population ratio is a very good condition to be in for the next few decades, if one is not invaded, I think. Russia and the US are in that position, as is Australia.
Political adjustments need to be made. Globalist parasites are destroying things for the citizens.
Thanks for that comment!
Ukrainian media said "accidentally" that Ukraine already lost 1.1 million troops. If these are the dead, there has to be at least 2 million casualties in total with the wounded. I'm trying to figure out that if their losses are really so high, how is this possible, with what kind of weapons?? Artillery is not very effective against entrenched positions. So are these the TOS-1 thermobaric salvos causing so high casualties? How many soldiers can one salvo destroy? 30? 50? 100? Or are these the FAB-500 strikes? It would be interesting to know. Now Russia is even using RBK-500 cluster bombs.
1.1 million, if true, can only be with the wounded.
Ukraine would be out of the game with 1.1 million dead.
Which unfortunately, still can happen.
My estimations are revolving around 550k dead, which is still horrific.
Well, Russia has expanded its reconnaissance capabilities.
Russia is using A.I. scanning algorithms to quickly scan large parts of Ukraine almost in real-time with its satellites. Which leads immediately to target acquisition. Either the human command is choosing then the means to destroy the target. You mentioned a lot of weapons in the Russian arsenal. But they are also more means.
Ukraine's means to defend itself is diminishing as well as their available equipment.
They need to invest ever more infantry to achieve the same results. And this will only increase. Maybe not during the winter months, but right after.
The weapons are all the ones you mentioned, and drones of all types.
And arty is effective against entrenched once dialled in. And don't forget Krasnopol guided arty.
"Avdeevka is an interesting place currently. Many people are comparing the situation with Artemovsk (Bakhmut). There are some parallels, but there are also some differences. I’m going to name a few."
The appropriate comparison imho, is Debaltseve......
In any event, Ukr. is a like a middle weight boxer, outclassed to start with by stepping into the ring with a heavyweight.....middleweights moving up in classes have never been successful as a rule.
They, the Uks, carrying the metaphor a little further are 'punched out'.
The high tide and ebb, was approx. the 3 weeks following their taking of Robotyne, they couldn't get a foothold in Verbove.
In short they cant get past the 1st rank Russian fortification line...thats the end of the line. The rest is now, a horrid waste.
Yes, I agree with your comparison 👍
For Argentina, I’ve heard credible arguments that even if Milei wants to dollarize and abolish the central bank, it might not be feasible. First, because of mechanical reasons (you need dollars to dollazrize) and second, the parliament will block him.
Still, having such a country with a staunch Western oriented Zionist leader is not a good thing for BRICS. In fact, the best thing is for him to withdraw, and if he doesn’t, for BRICS to withdraw the invitation. At this time, I see no benefit from Argentina joining. Let them suffer the consequences and later on they will make better partners.
For now I say good riddance. Dodged a bullet with that one.
Israel seems determined to solve the Palestinian Question once and for all by expelling them to the neighboring Arab countries and killing who doesn’t leave.
I see that sparking a regional war.
From the US perspective, this is a distraction and a conflict they don’t want to enter. There is no gain from it. Quite the opposite.
From the other great powers perspective that is a good place and time. If you’re going to inflict a defeat on the US, do it far away from you, with someone else’s resources, at a time of your choosing, and using a target that the US has no choice but to defend.
The countries in the region do not want an escalation but they might not have much choice in the matter.
Some believe that Israel is controlled by the US. It isn’t. That might have been the case 50 years ago. It isn’t anymore and hasn’t been for a while. In fact, at least when it comes to Israeli interests, Israel is in full control of US policy.
Putting it all together, Israel - specifically Netanyahu - will continue bombing Gaza and escalating in the West Bank, the regional countries will have no choice but to respond, the US will then have no choice but to respond, the other great powers let it happen and supply military and financial support, and bob’s your uncle.
Of course Israel can choose a different course and we don’t get the escalations. But the point still stands. Whether we get a regional war or not is entirely in the hands of Israel (i.e. Netanyahu and his war cabinet).
"Israel seems determined to solve the Palestinian Question once and for all by expelling them to the neighboring Arab countries and killing who doesn’t leave.
I see that sparking a regional war."
Israel's neighbors, and, for that matter, Hezbollah, really are determined to avoid any sort of escalation, as that will bring the United States in.
The problem is that when Israel finishes its ethnic cleansing and genocide in Gaza, the Israelis will want to move on to the West Bank and probably a war on Iran as well, which will require their American goons to participate more actively.
I hope it’s not true, but Milei’s dollarization policy and outspoken support for Israel reads a lot like a US asset in anarcho-capitalist clothing. Will he ultimately be used to discredit pro-freedom philosophy? Or is he, despite it all, the real thing?
I recommend to check out Andres' comment.
Russia can't afford to rebuild Ukraine as it was. They should redesign it and only build what and when is absolutely minimum necessity. Also, Lwow would really deserve to be burned, but perhaps it will not.
Btw, Ukraine is already sending women to the first line trenches, there are already videos of them being hit.
I thought so too, which explained the reluctance to damage and destroy too much of the infrastructure. But after their deepening relations with China and the rest of the Free World, I think Ukraine under Russia would be a far better reconstruction and development project than it would be under the US and EU tycoons. China has been able to create entire cities in a few years time, entire railways in even less time. I'm sure there will be plenty of development potential.
Yes, Russia can only do what it can afford.
The most important point will be to give work to the people so that they are off the streets.
read everything you write, I do agree with you assessment of the "conflict" inside the power structure in ukraine, is bread for the masses, and there is no safe heaven for the clown in chief, he will be found and executed bandera-style, by his own, even in miami. Avdeevka is the first post-Wagner assault to a fortified position, a master class even through the glass of telegram channels, is really impressive, also the scope of the front has change completely, now russia is capable of defending while containing and attacking, all at the same time, a master class
Yes, I agree.
And thank you for your kind words Carlos!
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/general-to-general
Putin would get permanent control of Crimea and the four provinces he has claimed and agree for Ukraine to become a member of NATO
Well... Sometimes even a good journalist, which Hersh definitely is, cites some bad sources...
Which he did in this case.
Unfortunately...
I am not so sure. Cheerleading of "negotiations ", " peace" and "winding down operations" of some of the pro-Kremlin blogger looks suspicious. I also saw, although in Western media, that Russian public opinion in October for the first time turned in favor of stopping the war. If that's true (I think it is) that means that Kremnlin throu opinion makers has been preparing nation for some kind of deal which would end everything.
The terms described by Hersh look very bad in comparison to the Russian goals....
https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/natos-proxy-war-on-russia-through-ukraine-appears-to-be-winding-down#comment-196284
See, there are many reasons why such an outcome is impossible. Don't get me wrong. I'm pro peace. But we need to put on the Russian hat(perspective).
1) Their constitution requires it to free the occupied (new) territories. There is no possibility to not do that. If that is militariliy impossible, than the consitution and military doctrine is requiring to use nukes. (Of course not against Ukraine, but against its backers). I described that in all possible details in several articles.
2) NATO mustn't be on the territory of Ukraine from a Russian perspective because of the flight time of missiles to Moscow from there. (Baltics are contained by Russia from all sides).
3) Russia is now completley dominating the battlefield. Why should it suddenly abondon its territories and Russian people that are waiting for being liberated by the Russian army if it is very very short of entirely destroy Ukraine's army and mobilization potential?
Believe me, this whole story is entirely a duck.
I believe, that it could be launched as a PsyOps which is directed to the Ukrainian people. To sow this rumors in Ukraine to create hope in peoples minds. And if this hopes do not materialize they would be frustrated and their whole anger would be directed against their government. Which would be beneficial to Russia. And to Ukraine as well. The earlier Ukraine collapses, the better because lives can be saved and the suffering shortened.
That's my opinion.
Bottom line: Duck.
Anybody else find it interesting that just when many of parts of the world, led by Russia, are dumping the dollar, suddenly a large country in the South of the US (What Washington calls ''the backyard'') is announcing it will abandon its own sovereignty and use the dollar instead? Basically creating a very large demand for the greens? Very odd coincidence?
:D
You know the Pyrrhic victory? :)
I would try and pay more attention on Frances struggle to retain their position in Africa. Without the cheap almost free resources france has been able to secure from Africa and is still finessing their economy is toast. AFRICOM has been busy also.
"Over the past several years, there have been a series of coups in Africa – precisely, eight coups in three years."
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2023/11/27/ages-of-terror-heres-why-africans-hate-france/
There are those who say that all of the coups and crap going on in Africa would not be able to happen if Russia, China, and Iran were not otherwise occupied. When ever the focus is drawn to big geopolitical events you can bet some seriously effed up stuff is happening elsewhere.
Cheers! Keep up the good work.
Yes, right.
There are already "insurgencies" in the newly freed African countries, aimed to destabilize them... Horrible.
Thank you very much!
Nothing to add on Russia. Surprised to hear the theory of a fake row between the Zs.
Interesting.
Both are controlled by the same handlers.
They are only tasked with different tasks.
Btw: The "Zs" is nice :))) Hear that for the first time :)
Each day presents anew🌅 The days blend, weeks, months…years. So grateful for your sub stack, and your editors, winks. Old lady with a virtual cat❤️🐈⬛ PS: looking very forward to Empires and Economies #6💙🇷🇺❤️
Thank you so much :)))
Re Argentina, I don’t entirely agree. The economy is effectively in USD anyway, no one holds local currency, people only use it because they have to and the central bank policies and official exchange rates create massive black markets. This creates massive friction.
So removing the friction should create a significant economic boost.
And I understand it, the proposal is to deregulate currency rather than switch to USD. This allows everyone to trade in whatever they like. Near term that’s USD because that’s mostly what they already use. But Yuan, bitcoin, gold, a new currency... all usable on equal footing. This is a core part of anarcho capitalism.
So rather than putting the country under the fed, they give the people the maximum adaptability to changing circumstances. They’ll use whatever currency works best for the individual.