"I made another mistake in one of my articles. I wrote that Ukraine will be ripe for a checkmate after the collapse of the professional Ukrainian army. The collapse appeared. The checkmating would, according to my article, be executed by encircling Kiev. I also admitted that this “prediction” would bring me a bloody nose. I made the prediction, as explained in the article, because of the fact that a prolongation of the conflict would increase the likelihood of an unwanted escalation between Russia and NATO to an unacceptable degree.
Hence, it was not a military analysis. It was (IS!) a human necessity to bring this war to an end."
I say this without snark - it is good to admit one's failed predictions. That said, the West is led not by humans but by sociopaths.
I read very few information sources, especially regarding geopolitics. Or rather many but very few I trust. And this as a reader is everything.....
Let me now define trust. It's 100 percent DOESNT mean being right always , especially when laying out breaking news or God forbid seriously predict the future in any certain terms. It means that when you reveal your information or anylsis, everything you personally contribute, you know to be true or at least believe so. I demand a certain amount of missteps from a news source....certain error % has to be baked into being a true source of news or analysis with any fortitude/worth and a news source that owns up, publicly, especially if on a more than one off kind of thing, can only be one of the highest indicators of a quality source.
If you want an audience of any critical thinking, loyalty, or balls, emulate this. Sing your failures, don't give me excuses, walk me through your thinking at the time if you feel the need, that's great. But you don't have to, any decent reader knows shit happens. Now myself and my fellow faithful need to show our loyalty with our money a little more often as well to encourage such behavior.
100% believe in watching the video, or hiding under the table, to understand the mannerisms behind what is said. But people cannot copy and paste a video into books for posterity' sake.
What do you mean by "but the power of Nato in comparison to Russia, more so, 10 million plus Hungarian people in support of the family, the state and Christianity? Perhaps it is necessary in times of crisis to project a sustaining image to the country and the world." ?
Regarding Things written in the New Yorker I had been wondering for already a long time before 2 things:
1. Why more of capabilities aren't used?
2.what kind of retaliation they were threatening with?
"It hasn’t gone that way. On the use of nuclear weapons––it’s been made clear to him by representatives of Western governments and the United States precisely what kind of retaliation he could expect.
Yes, I think that’s a great policy. I’m very happy that that happened. But here’s the problem. He has the capabilities. He’s got a lot of capabilities short of nuclear weapons. He could poison the water supply in Kyiv with chemical and biological weapons. He could poison the water supply in London, and then he could deny that it’s his special operatives that are doing that. He could cut the undersea cables, so that we could not do this radio broadcast. He can blow up the infrastructure that carries gas or other energy supplies to Europe. He’s got submersibles, he’s got a submarine fleet, he’s got special ops who can go right down to the ocean floor where those pipelines are located"
"To stop the Russians from advancing, Ukraine will literally need to stop the Russians with their bodies. And they will need millions of bodies to prolong the war for another year. Millions of dead. A price the West is ready to pay in order to to kill as many Russians (and Ukrainians), and in the process to destroy as much infrastructure and industry as possible.
Well, in fact, the West will pursue this war crime/crime against humanity as far as possible. And this is the point where I try to calm people down. Even though I’m not fully convinced yet, I can’t imagine that the Ukrainian (Russian!) people will follow."
What makes you so sure?
It should be obvious by now, that Russia really does not want this war. Russia does not want to make war on their brethren. Russians by and large also see the West as the Magical Land Where Institutions Basically Work (regardless whether there is any truth in this) and does not want to admit that it will never be admitted to that blessed land or that the rulers of that land hate Russia and fear it. Hence the Minsk-2 sham, even after it was obvious that Minsk was a sham.
Unfortunately, this also causes the Russian leadership to basically continue to hide their head in the sand rather than admit unpleasant facts. This began before the start of the war and continues to this day. This lack of resolve has only gotten a lot of good people killed. (And no, Russian resolve would not cause NATO to intervene. NATO will intervene on any pretext, if it wants to do so, and won't intervene, regardless of justification, if it does not wish to do so. This is another one of those excuses that fanbois like to make.)
This is also why Ukraine fights, not that hard core of Ukrainian Nazis, but the majority of Ukrainians who are fighting now. They also desperately want to be part of the Golden Billion, and if hating their brothers and their grandparents is the price that the Club charges for admission, then they were induced to pay that.
And yes, the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainians does not affect the lives of a Blinken or a Zelenskii one bit.
1. There is nothing that the Russian government can offer its citizens like membership in the Club, in the Golden Billion. It doesn't really affect the average frustrated Russian citizen living in Tver whether Kherson is or is not part of the Russian Federation, and Europe has made it plain that it does not want Russia.
If Europe wanted an end to this war, they'd offer more carrots and not just sticks. The West has a lot of soft power, especially among the oligarch class.
2. There is nothing that Russia can do, short of launch a nuclear strike, that will so much as mildly inconvenience the decisionmakers in Washington or even their local puppets in Kiev. It's not as if Blinken had to write fact checks out of his personal bank account or Zelenskii's kids were in any danger of getting killed.
So the West actually has nothing at risk, at least as far as the rulers are concerned. They can only win.
In a way of strategy Putin/Russia is between Dugin and Prigozhin.
a. Never to be accepted as a part of the West, under no circumstances, even weak Yeltsin‘s Russia was too strong to be accepted. All promises, all signed treaties were lies, and yes Russia cannot believe any words, any treaty. And this is not pessimism, but realism. Truth.
b. Russia has to be strong to even survive, exist. If R. choses to back down Russia will disappear, be divided.
c. Putin was not wrong, Gorbachev was wrong. Gorbachev failed to do what Mao and Cho en Lai did; ask firm, clear strategic commitment from the West. Mao asked and Nixon and Kissinger delivered One China policy. Gorbachev should have asked for No NATO enlargement policy. Putin asking for the same, i.e. No Nato enlargement was refused, and this is the cause of the war. Putin accepting Nato enlargement, non starting the war would be the end of Russia.
d. Both Dugin and Prigozhin have ideas that are closer to the Russian national spirit, both are less useful, practical, of value in today‘s global strategy. Putin is acting the best possible strategy, but has to be careful about his position, like Lenin, Stalin, up to Gorbachev Russia is a state where all power and responsibility in the end comes and lies in the hands of one man. Enormous responsibility. For the state, and for the people. Both Dugin and Prigozhin worlds lead to one man pyramidal power structure...
e. Putin is implementing rules based order into Russian society when discussing relations with the West openly, publicly.
Most of the developments currently, militarily in Ukraine, geopolitically in Africa, economically within The BRICS, are gradual and so don’t spark much panic while they are all happening at the same time which keeps the west busy.
There is one event that marks a clear boundary - or as that boundary approaches and its inevitability undeniable - the reaction of the west to it is unpredictable: the collapse in Ukraine. Either the complete collapse of the western world order or WW3.
I think that as long as this is perceived by the west to be far all they will try to do is timidly provoke Russia into taking the first step. When that event is reached, and if they don’t capitulate, the pressure on Russia will exponentially increase or they will create a false flag and start the direct war anyways.
With every passing day the west is growing weaker. They know that. It’s just the rate is low and they believe they are still more powerful. That might change soon and desperate empires do desperate things.
Two elements of the grand strategy that I see from Russia and China (and their allies) are changing the world order (financially, economically, trade) and preparing for war with NATO. Not preparing to start a war with NATO, but preparing to fight a defensive war that NATO will initiate. Those preparations might be the most critical piece to saving humanity from annihilation.
I’ll finish with this ... the current system does not work for 80% of the world and barely works for the majority of the 20%. It’s time it goes away and be replaced by something better. In the west we might end up having less things but we will live better lives and I, for one, welcome it.
"In the west we might end up having less things but we will live better lives and I, for one, welcome it. "
Yep, I'd be happy with affordable food, housing and transport; (actual) free healthcare and education for all. Who the fuck needs Gucci, BMWs, and Swiss chocolate?
What do you mean by the first step? "think that as long as this is perceived by the west to be far all they will try to do is timidly provoke Russia into taking the first step. When that event is reached, and if they don’t capitulate, the pressure on Russia will exponentially increase or they will create a false flag and start the direct war anyways."
"That President (???) Zelensky is preparing a general mobilization is telling me that the full collapse is not far away and the big push will not be needed."
It is telling me that he wants to negotiate a defeat and is desperate for anything that looks like a decent card to play (full mobilisation would just see a dash for the borders - Russian border mostly).
I agree - Fat Lady gonna sing any day now.
Maskirovka. In 100 years the best military history joke will be Russia calling CIA bluff with an actual invasion. The intention all along was a Ukrainian attack on Donbas with civilians targeted. Hence the requirement for CIA to predict the False Flag on which is would be based retaliation to the shelling by Rebels or Russian troops.
Nobody expected the invasion - not the professional analysts, not the amateurs, certainly not the CIA and absolutely not Kiev. All the Ukrainian troops were outside Donbas or sitting in Mariupol, the North and South border which Russia came through were empty of Ukrainian defence!!
"Currently, (West)Africa is turning against its Western colonial masters, and that is unacceptable for the western masters. "
I think it is simply a case that the US lost control 6 or 7 years ago (the time of Make America Great Again with contrast between 2016 and the past). And France lost credibility long before that but had US backing it.
"Fighting ISIS" well quite. Funny how US has to create monsters because the rest of world isn't frightened of the US itself (and because it can't admit openly how dreadful it is). Most non-serb Europeans don't have a clue about how this works.
The whole world has turned away from US except Europe which has been trapped by the destruction of NS2.
"If you play chess, such a situation resolves to a classic checkmate for you."
Indeed and the US has essentially lost by 2016, it just that Russia, China nor US know yet where the mate will be.
"But for now, it looks to me as if the “Wars of Liberation” (remember the resistance against Napoleon?) have actually begun."
I'm sticking to the idea that the world divides sharply to China block vs US block as US is incapable of operating in a multi-polar world (and knows it). So Ukraine was an attempt to tie in Europe with US. But rest of the world is desperate to be in the China group (even Saudi) and require very little encouragement from Russia.
Prigozhin. It really doesn't matter what happened. I agree: probably the west to embarrass Putin and mostly to concentrate minds on Russian problems rather than the Fat Lady singing in Ukraine, Belgium and Washington. The only thing that matters now is if Ukraine has 30k, 50k or 70k soldiers left to burn.
The West is currently intentionally killing Ukraine.
Yes as you say a hideous war crime committed knowingly.
This is partly the explanation for the bizarre media control, if middle level politicians or the media or public understood this, it would have been called off in March 2022.
I have a slighty different take. The timing of the Rusian attack in late Feb 22 was perilously close to the Spring Raputitsa and as such I thought at the time the danger of war had passed - because no Russian General in their right mind would attack with armour heavy forces when they would soon be road bound. The UAF massed 60,000 troops oposite DPR and LPR and in the weeks before massively increased shelling. I think the war was expected because [the West] formented it at a terrible time for Russia. If they attacked they would get bogged down (as occurred) and this would allow Ukraine time to mobilise its 700,000 men military. If they did not attack the UAF would have attacked the DPR and LPR and probably defeated them.
I judge the war was not intended to defeat Russia militarily but to create the conditions for regime change and internal collapse - via political instability and of course economic damage via sanctions. The latter were put in place remarkably quickly, as was the strings of the information war which was [I think] intended to also have a decisive impact on Russian sentiment. This explains why perace was turned down in April 22 as all appeared to be going to plan at that stage. Well, as we know, if this was the plan, then it has not unfolded as intended.
No real intention to invade just a big concern about UAF directly attacking Donbas (with a maximum of civilian collateral damage).
The difficulty was not travelling through Donbas held territory to set up defensive positions in mud. The difficulty was to set up defensive positions inside the range of UAF artillery that was waiting. That is why a distraction was necessary and that is why the biggest noisiest part of that distraction was W of Kiev which required a significant withdrawal of active troops. (I admit I am deducing this rather than matching it with precise UAF troop movements from the time).
It also seems clear in retrospect that the distraction was with far fewer men than is widely reported.
But meanwhile the opportunity to attack Azov HQ in Mariupol was too good to ignore, supported the whole LPR/DPR accession, and did require a much larger force than used in the north.
Western motives for the war certainly include your points of misguided expectations. But I suspect it is actually a patchwork quilt of many many motives where everyone has one core goal from attacking Russia and so is quite able to ignore the complete lack of realism throughout. Everyone provides their own patch, no one cares that there is no stitching holding the patches together.
Distracting from the Biden failures with "a win" is probably the biggest motivation, with no real care as to whether Ukraine, Nato or Washington can actually win.
Cutting off Europe from trade with Russia (and ultimately with China) is another big motivation.
I also note how almost all media reporting and politician comments on the fighting emphasise how the whole purpose is for Ukraine to regain lost territory. This applies to Zelensky most of all. Now partly that is a way of ducking the issue of Ukraine losing badly. But it does point to Ukraine originating the war not Russia.
What do you mean by "This explains why perace was turned down in April 22 as all appeared to be going to plan at that stage. Well, as we know, if this was the plan, then it has not unfolded as intended" ?
Well it should read "peace" so apologies for the typo. Ukraine - encouraged by Boris Johnson - acting as a UK/USA/NATO envoy - visited Kiev in April 22 and persuaded them not to pursue the Istanbul peace negotiations any further. The theory goes that NATO thought they had trapped Russia by this point and that their military was stymied and economy and political stability on a downward slope. A continuation of the fighting would see Russia collapse.
What do you mean by "Maskirovka. In 100 years the best military history joke will be Russia calling CIA bluff with an actual invasion. The intention all along was a Ukrainian attack on Donbas with civilians targeted. Hence the requirement for CIA to predict the False Flag on which is would be based retaliation to the shelling by Rebels or Russian troops." ?
Feb 2022 and Ukraine is about to attack Donbas under US instructions.
CIA produce the standard excuse that Russia is going to invade Ukraine (which would justify the attack on Donbas, and some false flag could always be invented). Ukraine had spent 8 years building strong defence outside Donbas so were confident that they could just sit and shell if Russia or rebels provided any significant resistance.
But no one expected Russia to invade. And clearly Ukraine's army was all set up to attack Donbas with none of it protecting the borders with Russia South or North.
That was the situation in Feb 2022.
By joke I mean it is a funny ironical response to the CIA (not joke as in pathetic).
Thank You, Aleks. There were several questions that developed in my mind as I read, but you answered them before I got to the comments section at the bottom of the scroll.
You answered questions I had not formulated, also. Thank you for considering the face of WW-3 as you have done.
It seems that the current imperial court in Washington needs to be replaced with a "rationalist" imperial court before any actual election might be held in November 2024. Such a palace-coup would need to take place before the party conventions next summer, or no candidates would be in place to be voted upon. Actual primaries would result in a Trump-Kennedy contest, which current (failing badly) elites cannot allow.
Again, I am glad you were able to find the time to put this together so well.
"It seems that the current imperial court in Washington needs to be replaced with a "rationalist" imperial court before any actual election might be held in November 2024."
Good luck with that. Even if Cornell West and JFK Jr. (to name two) were to be made president and VP today, they would find themselves stymied at every turn by Congress and the national security establishment, in and out of government.
I don't always agree with you, but I think you touch on an essential truth here. The "deep state establishment" of three letter agencies - overwhelmingly located in and near DC and thus wedded to the maintanance of Deomcratic Party Rule - appear to be the tail wagging the dog of the US body politic. Control of a complicit media helps...
It will take a lot more than that. Basically, the entire national security state would need to be purged root and branch, and sure as shit runs downhill, the moment you did so, they'd be scheming to return to power.
Critical players need to shift to rationalist positions, since absolutist positions will now clearly result in absolute failure, like Ukraine won't negotiate with Russia; that kind of thing.
The "owners" are poorly served by the failures of the current corrupt courtiers, which are "worse than corrupt, they are incompetent".
A turnover will or won't happen in time to start plugging holes in the sinking ship of western empire, and negotiate with the rest of the world.
It's not even a year, less than 10 months to see if there will be real candidates put forward by the conventions next June...
There's no downside to the maximalist position. All the risk is on taking any other position.
If the sociopaths running the West could destroy 99% of life on earth, but they were guaranteed absolute dominion over whatever was left, they'd push The Button in a heartbeat.
Maybe simultateously send 1000 Zircons to HQs for EU, NATO, WEF, WHO, Israel, and Bush/Clinton/Biden crime familes... down the list of 1000 top targets.
You talk about 100.000 RU losses (kia + wia), 200k maybe if the war goes on, ok but what about the covid losses in RU? 400K deaths( probaly 500k according to health sources), which compared to other major countries is simply normal(US reached almost 1.2 million for 335 millions people, same for countries like France, UK, Italy etc except China if their stats are real)?
I fully understand that these are at 95 % very old or old people though it is supposed to be less important (they were going to die relatively soon due to their old age and pathologies, and of course no children who will not be born) or coldly said 400k pensions less to pay.
But it means RU lost 450/550k citizens being killed in war or by pandemic. But RU 'won' in theory millions new Russians refugees with potential new millions oblasts inhabitants.
Of course this is far worse for Ukraine for the kia/mia in war and 12/14 millions refugees or oblasts inhabitants lost not to forget their covid stats which are as much faked as their war losses.
Great article. One point i think needs more nuance. The exploitation of other countries is necessary for the maintenance of the Western Empire, not so much the western lifestyle. There only needs to be a big reduction in living standards if the West keeps its Empire. Which is most likely, sadly, but it’s the Empire that’s the problem, not how people are living.
Being westerner I am more and more ashamed to be ruled by such a bunch of depraved/sociopaths idiots... As someone wrote... I dream of a 1000 Zircons volley... and very few normal people would mourn them.
Where is our Gandalf to dispel Grima Wormtongue's bad spells?
CIA/Nazis and Zionist Jews are the two leading parasites and predators to mankind. They have a natural alliance with the Ukraine War… a quick search of history will reveal genocide, culling of their own people (deplorable whites and ghetto Jews),mass gene-changing injections, and now transhumanism. All the money from the Jewish Banking Mafia and all the political might is not their end goal - The GOAL: Becoming gods and creating their own divergent species of humans, some gods and various species of slaves.
Will, there has never been, and there will never be Zionist woman, man, institution, state that will not fight for Jewish lives.
Zionism is in a way, a movement that is bringing most of the world‘s Jews back to Israel, and turning them into citizens of MiddleEastern, Mediteranean country, sitting at the junction between Asia and Africa. Zionism is and will be supported by influential, rich, intelligent Jews worldwide, Jewish/Zionist interests will be supported by US Jews absolutely, translating into will be supported by US absolutrly, but Zionism is in the long run making Jews out of Israel less important in the present day and future of Jewish nation.
CIA and all other deep state entities are living in the illusion US/West is just one step away of dominating globe, only Russia militarily and China economically are strong enough to resist.
Israel will be fine in multipolar world, but what is important to Israel, peace with Iran as the last major islamic state existentially opposing Israel (Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already accepted Israel) cannot come through US. Only BRICS i.e. China and Russia can arrange peace between Iran and Israel and Palestinians.
US will continue trying regime change in Russia through further escalation.
Your response is out of touch with reality, much like any proclamation by Zionists and Nazis in Washington DC claiming success in Ukraine. Israel, this is what your collapse looks like. Your Jewish-run “Federal Reserve” and their dollar printing press is being shut down by BRICS+. Noone wants pararsitic Jews controlling a debt slavery economic system. Your game is up. The Goyim know. Iran and Saudis and Egypt... all your neighbors loathe you. Israel will not survive the next 40 years. Jews will be expelled from many countries. It has happened 109 times before... Jews getting expelled from countries. Your parasitic behavior has not improved and history is still in effect.
Really... I can analyze it economically but my information about Gabon is ZERO :))))
What I read until now is it could be a genuine coup in favor of the people. Against France.
Or it could also be a coup, staged by France to install a more favorable government in the light of all the other losses across Africa.
I have no idea.. :) Let's wait a few days and let's look how things develop and maybe we will be successful with our "overnight Africa expert" classes haha
You write, "Putin killed the character E. P.". I think there's something to that. Someone killed only that persona but not the person.
I don't think Putin would kill Prigozhin when he can really use him well in the context of developments in Africa among others. Also Putin said something about Prigozhin having a complex destiny. Getting killed in a crash is not that complex. Getting a new identity would be a bit more so.
Yeah, I know, conspiracy theory. But... what if? It's *certainly* possible! And did anybody see the actual burned-out bodies from the few civilians that supposedly died?
"I made another mistake in one of my articles. I wrote that Ukraine will be ripe for a checkmate after the collapse of the professional Ukrainian army. The collapse appeared. The checkmating would, according to my article, be executed by encircling Kiev. I also admitted that this “prediction” would bring me a bloody nose. I made the prediction, as explained in the article, because of the fact that a prolongation of the conflict would increase the likelihood of an unwanted escalation between Russia and NATO to an unacceptable degree.
Hence, it was not a military analysis. It was (IS!) a human necessity to bring this war to an end."
I say this without snark - it is good to admit one's failed predictions. That said, the West is led not by humans but by sociopaths.
You're entirely right... Sad.
Would to God or Bastet that I were wrong.
I read very few information sources, especially regarding geopolitics. Or rather many but very few I trust. And this as a reader is everything.....
Let me now define trust. It's 100 percent DOESNT mean being right always , especially when laying out breaking news or God forbid seriously predict the future in any certain terms. It means that when you reveal your information or anylsis, everything you personally contribute, you know to be true or at least believe so. I demand a certain amount of missteps from a news source....certain error % has to be baked into being a true source of news or analysis with any fortitude/worth and a news source that owns up, publicly, especially if on a more than one off kind of thing, can only be one of the highest indicators of a quality source.
If you want an audience of any critical thinking, loyalty, or balls, emulate this. Sing your failures, don't give me excuses, walk me through your thinking at the time if you feel the need, that's great. But you don't have to, any decent reader knows shit happens. Now myself and my fellow faithful need to show our loyalty with our money a little more often as well to encourage such behavior.
I read all kinds of things, and go out of my way to find sources that I don't agree with or that do not tell me what I want to hear.
Long but worth it. Excellent read. Thanks.
Gabon is an interesting development.
Worth reading https://karlof1.substack.com/p/maria-zakharova-lectures-italys-ansa - she makes it clear about the annexed territories.
Although I disagree with many points therein, the focus should be on it being the biggest MSM article discussing ending the war - https://www.newyorker.com/news/essay/the-case-for-negotiating-with-russia
And I posted the transcript of Orban and Tucker - https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/transcript-tucker-carlson-viktor-orban-interview
Thank you :)
I will certainly look into that!
100% believe in watching the video, or hiding under the table, to understand the mannerisms behind what is said. But people cannot copy and paste a video into books for posterity' sake.
What do you mean by "but the power of Nato in comparison to Russia, more so, 10 million plus Hungarian people in support of the family, the state and Christianity? Perhaps it is necessary in times of crisis to project a sustaining image to the country and the world." ?
I proofread what you wrote in Hungarian ( Tucker -Orban ) and I have to say that you did a good job !
Ta. Makes finger cramps worth it :)
Oh, wow. Good job!
Thanks for posting that trtanscript. A good read. And guess what, under-reported!
Yeah, MSM only shared bits and pieces to people who will never watch the video. Context is needed.
Regarding Things written in the New Yorker I had been wondering for already a long time before 2 things:
1. Why more of capabilities aren't used?
2.what kind of retaliation they were threatening with?
"It hasn’t gone that way. On the use of nuclear weapons––it’s been made clear to him by representatives of Western governments and the United States precisely what kind of retaliation he could expect.
Yes, I think that’s a great policy. I’m very happy that that happened. But here’s the problem. He has the capabilities. He’s got a lot of capabilities short of nuclear weapons. He could poison the water supply in Kyiv with chemical and biological weapons. He could poison the water supply in London, and then he could deny that it’s his special operatives that are doing that. He could cut the undersea cables, so that we could not do this radio broadcast. He can blow up the infrastructure that carries gas or other energy supplies to Europe. He’s got submersibles, he’s got a submarine fleet, he’s got special ops who can go right down to the ocean floor where those pipelines are located"
He's got the option to act like a human in a situation that's awfully presented.
"To stop the Russians from advancing, Ukraine will literally need to stop the Russians with their bodies. And they will need millions of bodies to prolong the war for another year. Millions of dead. A price the West is ready to pay in order to to kill as many Russians (and Ukrainians), and in the process to destroy as much infrastructure and industry as possible.
Well, in fact, the West will pursue this war crime/crime against humanity as far as possible. And this is the point where I try to calm people down. Even though I’m not fully convinced yet, I can’t imagine that the Ukrainian (Russian!) people will follow."
What makes you so sure?
It should be obvious by now, that Russia really does not want this war. Russia does not want to make war on their brethren. Russians by and large also see the West as the Magical Land Where Institutions Basically Work (regardless whether there is any truth in this) and does not want to admit that it will never be admitted to that blessed land or that the rulers of that land hate Russia and fear it. Hence the Minsk-2 sham, even after it was obvious that Minsk was a sham.
Unfortunately, this also causes the Russian leadership to basically continue to hide their head in the sand rather than admit unpleasant facts. This began before the start of the war and continues to this day. This lack of resolve has only gotten a lot of good people killed. (And no, Russian resolve would not cause NATO to intervene. NATO will intervene on any pretext, if it wants to do so, and won't intervene, regardless of justification, if it does not wish to do so. This is another one of those excuses that fanbois like to make.)
This is also why Ukraine fights, not that hard core of Ukrainian Nazis, but the majority of Ukrainians who are fighting now. They also desperately want to be part of the Golden Billion, and if hating their brothers and their grandparents is the price that the Club charges for admission, then they were induced to pay that.
And yes, the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainians does not affect the lives of a Blinken or a Zelenskii one bit.
For its part, Russia has two different problems.
1. There is nothing that the Russian government can offer its citizens like membership in the Club, in the Golden Billion. It doesn't really affect the average frustrated Russian citizen living in Tver whether Kherson is or is not part of the Russian Federation, and Europe has made it plain that it does not want Russia.
If Europe wanted an end to this war, they'd offer more carrots and not just sticks. The West has a lot of soft power, especially among the oligarch class.
2. There is nothing that Russia can do, short of launch a nuclear strike, that will so much as mildly inconvenience the decisionmakers in Washington or even their local puppets in Kiev. It's not as if Blinken had to write fact checks out of his personal bank account or Zelenskii's kids were in any danger of getting killed.
So the West actually has nothing at risk, at least as far as the rulers are concerned. They can only win.
In a way of strategy Putin/Russia is between Dugin and Prigozhin.
a. Never to be accepted as a part of the West, under no circumstances, even weak Yeltsin‘s Russia was too strong to be accepted. All promises, all signed treaties were lies, and yes Russia cannot believe any words, any treaty. And this is not pessimism, but realism. Truth.
b. Russia has to be strong to even survive, exist. If R. choses to back down Russia will disappear, be divided.
c. Putin was not wrong, Gorbachev was wrong. Gorbachev failed to do what Mao and Cho en Lai did; ask firm, clear strategic commitment from the West. Mao asked and Nixon and Kissinger delivered One China policy. Gorbachev should have asked for No NATO enlargement policy. Putin asking for the same, i.e. No Nato enlargement was refused, and this is the cause of the war. Putin accepting Nato enlargement, non starting the war would be the end of Russia.
d. Both Dugin and Prigozhin have ideas that are closer to the Russian national spirit, both are less useful, practical, of value in today‘s global strategy. Putin is acting the best possible strategy, but has to be careful about his position, like Lenin, Stalin, up to Gorbachev Russia is a state where all power and responsibility in the end comes and lies in the hands of one man. Enormous responsibility. For the state, and for the people. Both Dugin and Prigozhin worlds lead to one man pyramidal power structure...
e. Putin is implementing rules based order into Russian society when discussing relations with the West openly, publicly.
Most of the developments currently, militarily in Ukraine, geopolitically in Africa, economically within The BRICS, are gradual and so don’t spark much panic while they are all happening at the same time which keeps the west busy.
There is one event that marks a clear boundary - or as that boundary approaches and its inevitability undeniable - the reaction of the west to it is unpredictable: the collapse in Ukraine. Either the complete collapse of the western world order or WW3.
I think that as long as this is perceived by the west to be far all they will try to do is timidly provoke Russia into taking the first step. When that event is reached, and if they don’t capitulate, the pressure on Russia will exponentially increase or they will create a false flag and start the direct war anyways.
With every passing day the west is growing weaker. They know that. It’s just the rate is low and they believe they are still more powerful. That might change soon and desperate empires do desperate things.
Two elements of the grand strategy that I see from Russia and China (and their allies) are changing the world order (financially, economically, trade) and preparing for war with NATO. Not preparing to start a war with NATO, but preparing to fight a defensive war that NATO will initiate. Those preparations might be the most critical piece to saving humanity from annihilation.
I’ll finish with this ... the current system does not work for 80% of the world and barely works for the majority of the 20%. It’s time it goes away and be replaced by something better. In the west we might end up having less things but we will live better lives and I, for one, welcome it.
"In the west we might end up having less things but we will live better lives and I, for one, welcome it. "
Yep, I'd be happy with affordable food, housing and transport; (actual) free healthcare and education for all. Who the fuck needs Gucci, BMWs, and Swiss chocolate?
Yes, I agree.
What do you mean by the first step? "think that as long as this is perceived by the west to be far all they will try to do is timidly provoke Russia into taking the first step. When that event is reached, and if they don’t capitulate, the pressure on Russia will exponentially increase or they will create a false flag and start the direct war anyways."
I mean Russia or China being provoked into taking the first step towards a direct confrontation with NATO.
First Excellent - Thanks.
"That President (???) Zelensky is preparing a general mobilization is telling me that the full collapse is not far away and the big push will not be needed."
It is telling me that he wants to negotiate a defeat and is desperate for anything that looks like a decent card to play (full mobilisation would just see a dash for the borders - Russian border mostly).
I agree - Fat Lady gonna sing any day now.
Maskirovka. In 100 years the best military history joke will be Russia calling CIA bluff with an actual invasion. The intention all along was a Ukrainian attack on Donbas with civilians targeted. Hence the requirement for CIA to predict the False Flag on which is would be based retaliation to the shelling by Rebels or Russian troops.
Nobody expected the invasion - not the professional analysts, not the amateurs, certainly not the CIA and absolutely not Kiev. All the Ukrainian troops were outside Donbas or sitting in Mariupol, the North and South border which Russia came through were empty of Ukrainian defence!!
"Currently, (West)Africa is turning against its Western colonial masters, and that is unacceptable for the western masters. "
I think it is simply a case that the US lost control 6 or 7 years ago (the time of Make America Great Again with contrast between 2016 and the past). And France lost credibility long before that but had US backing it.
"Fighting ISIS" well quite. Funny how US has to create monsters because the rest of world isn't frightened of the US itself (and because it can't admit openly how dreadful it is). Most non-serb Europeans don't have a clue about how this works.
The whole world has turned away from US except Europe which has been trapped by the destruction of NS2.
"If you play chess, such a situation resolves to a classic checkmate for you."
Indeed and the US has essentially lost by 2016, it just that Russia, China nor US know yet where the mate will be.
"But for now, it looks to me as if the “Wars of Liberation” (remember the resistance against Napoleon?) have actually begun."
I'm sticking to the idea that the world divides sharply to China block vs US block as US is incapable of operating in a multi-polar world (and knows it). So Ukraine was an attempt to tie in Europe with US. But rest of the world is desperate to be in the China group (even Saudi) and require very little encouragement from Russia.
Prigozhin. It really doesn't matter what happened. I agree: probably the west to embarrass Putin and mostly to concentrate minds on Russian problems rather than the Fat Lady singing in Ukraine, Belgium and Washington. The only thing that matters now is if Ukraine has 30k, 50k or 70k soldiers left to burn.
The West is currently intentionally killing Ukraine.
Yes as you say a hideous war crime committed knowingly.
This is partly the explanation for the bizarre media control, if middle level politicians or the media or public understood this, it would have been called off in March 2022.
I have a slighty different take. The timing of the Rusian attack in late Feb 22 was perilously close to the Spring Raputitsa and as such I thought at the time the danger of war had passed - because no Russian General in their right mind would attack with armour heavy forces when they would soon be road bound. The UAF massed 60,000 troops oposite DPR and LPR and in the weeks before massively increased shelling. I think the war was expected because [the West] formented it at a terrible time for Russia. If they attacked they would get bogged down (as occurred) and this would allow Ukraine time to mobilise its 700,000 men military. If they did not attack the UAF would have attacked the DPR and LPR and probably defeated them.
I judge the war was not intended to defeat Russia militarily but to create the conditions for regime change and internal collapse - via political instability and of course economic damage via sanctions. The latter were put in place remarkably quickly, as was the strings of the information war which was [I think] intended to also have a decisive impact on Russian sentiment. This explains why perace was turned down in April 22 as all appeared to be going to plan at that stage. Well, as we know, if this was the plan, then it has not unfolded as intended.
Your take seems largely similar to mine.
No real intention to invade just a big concern about UAF directly attacking Donbas (with a maximum of civilian collateral damage).
The difficulty was not travelling through Donbas held territory to set up defensive positions in mud. The difficulty was to set up defensive positions inside the range of UAF artillery that was waiting. That is why a distraction was necessary and that is why the biggest noisiest part of that distraction was W of Kiev which required a significant withdrawal of active troops. (I admit I am deducing this rather than matching it with precise UAF troop movements from the time).
It also seems clear in retrospect that the distraction was with far fewer men than is widely reported.
But meanwhile the opportunity to attack Azov HQ in Mariupol was too good to ignore, supported the whole LPR/DPR accession, and did require a much larger force than used in the north.
Western motives for the war certainly include your points of misguided expectations. But I suspect it is actually a patchwork quilt of many many motives where everyone has one core goal from attacking Russia and so is quite able to ignore the complete lack of realism throughout. Everyone provides their own patch, no one cares that there is no stitching holding the patches together.
Distracting from the Biden failures with "a win" is probably the biggest motivation, with no real care as to whether Ukraine, Nato or Washington can actually win.
Cutting off Europe from trade with Russia (and ultimately with China) is another big motivation.
I also note how almost all media reporting and politician comments on the fighting emphasise how the whole purpose is for Ukraine to regain lost territory. This applies to Zelensky most of all. Now partly that is a way of ducking the issue of Ukraine losing badly. But it does point to Ukraine originating the war not Russia.
What do you mean by "This explains why perace was turned down in April 22 as all appeared to be going to plan at that stage. Well, as we know, if this was the plan, then it has not unfolded as intended" ?
Well it should read "peace" so apologies for the typo. Ukraine - encouraged by Boris Johnson - acting as a UK/USA/NATO envoy - visited Kiev in April 22 and persuaded them not to pursue the Istanbul peace negotiations any further. The theory goes that NATO thought they had trapped Russia by this point and that their military was stymied and economy and political stability on a downward slope. A continuation of the fighting would see Russia collapse.
What do you mean by "Maskirovka. In 100 years the best military history joke will be Russia calling CIA bluff with an actual invasion. The intention all along was a Ukrainian attack on Donbas with civilians targeted. Hence the requirement for CIA to predict the False Flag on which is would be based retaliation to the shelling by Rebels or Russian troops." ?
Was that not clear?
Feb 2022 and Ukraine is about to attack Donbas under US instructions.
CIA produce the standard excuse that Russia is going to invade Ukraine (which would justify the attack on Donbas, and some false flag could always be invented). Ukraine had spent 8 years building strong defence outside Donbas so were confident that they could just sit and shell if Russia or rebels provided any significant resistance.
But no one expected Russia to invade. And clearly Ukraine's army was all set up to attack Donbas with none of it protecting the borders with Russia South or North.
That was the situation in Feb 2022.
By joke I mean it is a funny ironical response to the CIA (not joke as in pathetic).
Thank You, Aleks. There were several questions that developed in my mind as I read, but you answered them before I got to the comments section at the bottom of the scroll.
You answered questions I had not formulated, also. Thank you for considering the face of WW-3 as you have done.
It seems that the current imperial court in Washington needs to be replaced with a "rationalist" imperial court before any actual election might be held in November 2024. Such a palace-coup would need to take place before the party conventions next summer, or no candidates would be in place to be voted upon. Actual primaries would result in a Trump-Kennedy contest, which current (failing badly) elites cannot allow.
Again, I am glad you were able to find the time to put this together so well.
Thank you very much. I appreciate you comment, John.
To be honest... I'm very concerned about the political processes currently going on in America.
Not only because of the consequences for the world. But especially what it means and what it can cause in America itself an to its people.
"It seems that the current imperial court in Washington needs to be replaced with a "rationalist" imperial court before any actual election might be held in November 2024."
Good luck with that. Even if Cornell West and JFK Jr. (to name two) were to be made president and VP today, they would find themselves stymied at every turn by Congress and the national security establishment, in and out of government.
I don't always agree with you, but I think you touch on an essential truth here. The "deep state establishment" of three letter agencies - overwhelmingly located in and near DC and thus wedded to the maintanance of Deomcratic Party Rule - appear to be the tail wagging the dog of the US body politic. Control of a complicit media helps...
To be fair, the Deep State, the Borg, the Blob, whatever you want to call it, would be just fine with a Team R corporate imperialist muppet.
Indeed...
That's what I mean by the "imperial court" needing to change before there can even be actual candidates and an actual election.
Pelosi, Schumer, McCarthy, etc. are all "imperial courtiers", still the Clinton/Bush/Cheney/Obama/Soros/Gates cabal.
It will take a lot more than that. Basically, the entire national security state would need to be purged root and branch, and sure as shit runs downhill, the moment you did so, they'd be scheming to return to power.
Critical players need to shift to rationalist positions, since absolutist positions will now clearly result in absolute failure, like Ukraine won't negotiate with Russia; that kind of thing.
The "owners" are poorly served by the failures of the current corrupt courtiers, which are "worse than corrupt, they are incompetent".
A turnover will or won't happen in time to start plugging holes in the sinking ship of western empire, and negotiate with the rest of the world.
It's not even a year, less than 10 months to see if there will be real candidates put forward by the conventions next June...
There's no downside to the maximalist position. All the risk is on taking any other position.
If the sociopaths running the West could destroy 99% of life on earth, but they were guaranteed absolute dominion over whatever was left, they'd push The Button in a heartbeat.
Maybe simultateously send 1000 Zircons to HQs for EU, NATO, WEF, WHO, Israel, and Bush/Clinton/Biden crime familes... down the list of 1000 top targets.
I will re-read this later. Once is not enough. Thank you, you my pals. GodSpeed. 💙🇷🇺❤️🐈⬛❤️
Thank you, as always :))
That was excellent.
Welcome back! I trust your time off was well spent? I'm looking forward to reading your post this evening.
Cheers from Cheyenne!
Thanks :) I think I'm recharged :) But a lot of work is waiting until the end of the year :)))
You talk about 100.000 RU losses (kia + wia), 200k maybe if the war goes on, ok but what about the covid losses in RU? 400K deaths( probaly 500k according to health sources), which compared to other major countries is simply normal(US reached almost 1.2 million for 335 millions people, same for countries like France, UK, Italy etc except China if their stats are real)?
I fully understand that these are at 95 % very old or old people though it is supposed to be less important (they were going to die relatively soon due to their old age and pathologies, and of course no children who will not be born) or coldly said 400k pensions less to pay.
But it means RU lost 450/550k citizens being killed in war or by pandemic. But RU 'won' in theory millions new Russians refugees with potential new millions oblasts inhabitants.
Of course this is far worse for Ukraine for the kia/mia in war and 12/14 millions refugees or oblasts inhabitants lost not to forget their covid stats which are as much faked as their war losses.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR160UZqdWjNwVDnn6F0kkbPkZUXbnGRhDGgN1RgY-AqGgT2CpjGwkO0lzc
I'm not sure whether that was a question :) But yes, I see your points! Thanks.
I really need to get around to reading the rest of your articles. :)
You should :D
Great article. One point i think needs more nuance. The exploitation of other countries is necessary for the maintenance of the Western Empire, not so much the western lifestyle. There only needs to be a big reduction in living standards if the West keeps its Empire. Which is most likely, sadly, but it’s the Empire that’s the problem, not how people are living.
I agree 👍
Welcome back Sir... and with a bang!
Being westerner I am more and more ashamed to be ruled by such a bunch of depraved/sociopaths idiots... As someone wrote... I dream of a 1000 Zircons volley... and very few normal people would mourn them.
Where is our Gandalf to dispel Grima Wormtongue's bad spells?
Thank you very much :)))
Haha yes, we need Gandalf... We need many Gandalfs... There a lot of people to be dispelled :))
CIA/Nazis and Zionist Jews are the two leading parasites and predators to mankind. They have a natural alliance with the Ukraine War… a quick search of history will reveal genocide, culling of their own people (deplorable whites and ghetto Jews),mass gene-changing injections, and now transhumanism. All the money from the Jewish Banking Mafia and all the political might is not their end goal - The GOAL: Becoming gods and creating their own divergent species of humans, some gods and various species of slaves.
Will, there has never been, and there will never be Zionist woman, man, institution, state that will not fight for Jewish lives.
Zionism is in a way, a movement that is bringing most of the world‘s Jews back to Israel, and turning them into citizens of MiddleEastern, Mediteranean country, sitting at the junction between Asia and Africa. Zionism is and will be supported by influential, rich, intelligent Jews worldwide, Jewish/Zionist interests will be supported by US Jews absolutely, translating into will be supported by US absolutrly, but Zionism is in the long run making Jews out of Israel less important in the present day and future of Jewish nation.
CIA and all other deep state entities are living in the illusion US/West is just one step away of dominating globe, only Russia militarily and China economically are strong enough to resist.
Israel will be fine in multipolar world, but what is important to Israel, peace with Iran as the last major islamic state existentially opposing Israel (Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already accepted Israel) cannot come through US. Only BRICS i.e. China and Russia can arrange peace between Iran and Israel and Palestinians.
US will continue trying regime change in Russia through further escalation.
CIA/Nazis and Israel are in a twin death spiral. You must understand that true USA will eliminate Israel for 911.
Your response is out of touch with reality, much like any proclamation by Zionists and Nazis in Washington DC claiming success in Ukraine. Israel, this is what your collapse looks like. Your Jewish-run “Federal Reserve” and their dollar printing press is being shut down by BRICS+. Noone wants pararsitic Jews controlling a debt slavery economic system. Your game is up. The Goyim know. Iran and Saudis and Egypt... all your neighbors loathe you. Israel will not survive the next 40 years. Jews will be expelled from many countries. It has happened 109 times before... Jews getting expelled from countries. Your parasitic behavior has not improved and history is still in effect.
Aleks, one last thing, what is your take on Gabon?
(I guess we all have to be Africa experts in a hurry :)
Hi Phoenix :)))
I swear... I have NO IDEA haha :)
Really... I can analyze it economically but my information about Gabon is ZERO :))))
What I read until now is it could be a genuine coup in favor of the people. Against France.
Or it could also be a coup, staged by France to install a more favorable government in the light of all the other losses across Africa.
I have no idea.. :) Let's wait a few days and let's look how things develop and maybe we will be successful with our "overnight Africa expert" classes haha
You write, "Putin killed the character E. P.". I think there's something to that. Someone killed only that persona but not the person.
I don't think Putin would kill Prigozhin when he can really use him well in the context of developments in Africa among others. Also Putin said something about Prigozhin having a complex destiny. Getting killed in a crash is not that complex. Getting a new identity would be a bit more so.
What are the odds Prighozin isn't dead?
Yeah, I know, conspiracy theory. But... what if? It's *certainly* possible! And did anybody see the actual burned-out bodies from the few civilians that supposedly died?
I wonder...
I really think he isn't dead. Him being declared dead will remove him from at least some hit lists.