I am German and got to tell you: all in all a good analysis. Where you are (partially) wrong is in the economics part. Yes, Germany is dependent on cheap energy but no, even with energy ten times as expensive large parts of industry would survive. Case in point is the German circuit breaker industry. You will laugh and say: what, such a low technology product. But the point is that the technology is in the production and not in the product. The big advantage of Germany is it´s tool machine industry. Easily 30 percent of the most advanced tool machines (in lasers it is more than 50% look up Trumpf) of the world is produced in Germany. They constitute a dense network of small and mdium sized companies that are usually family owned. The German circuit breaker industry is profiting from its proximity to these companies. On top they also build specialist tool machines themselves. Every new generation of tool machines hike the productivity and lower the energy use to such an extent that nobody in the world can keep up. These are companies, like Hager, ABB-Stotz or Siemens.
You will never read it in the mainstream media but for instance General Electrics production in the US of any kind of HV equipment is being phased out. Con Ed and the other big grid operators in the US are switching to ABB-Stotz. ABB-Stotz equipment with the GE logo as this part of GE was sold to ABB about 5 years ago. GE simply couldn´t keep up anymore and therefore sold the name rights before that wasn´t worth anything anymore either.
Blackrock et al know all of this very well. They know where the true strength of German industry lies. But for now they can´t get their hands on the machine tool industry as it is almost completely in private hands. Same for the big tech giants. Up to know they haven´t been able to integrate them into their platforms. There is the well founded suspicion here in Germany that part of what the US is doing is to ruin Germany to such an extent that even these jewels will be up for grasp to be either integrated into big tech or else their know-how sold to China.
Nevertheless, I want to give also a comment to it.
You are right on many things. I know many of these details.
Nevertheless, you seem to be an engineer and looking at things from a technical perspective.
You didn't weigh in macroeconomic considerations. Moreover, I assume you are and engineer for a very long time, right? It is typically for such people, to ignore the pace, with which China catches up with Germany and the West. In fact, when I was ten years ago in a Chinese factory, it was "okay". I visited a Chinese factory before Corona broke out and then I just needed to realize, that they took us (Europeans) over already. With own technology. Both, quantiative and qualitative. Hence, market shares. I know it, because I consultet the official statistics, and yes, China caught up.
I advice to you Germans... Wake up!
You are loosing the ability to lead the market with an astonishing pace.
The chemical industry currently vacates you, because of high energy prices. But you need the chemical products for your industry. Which results in inflation, if you need to import it going forward, instead of producing it locally in a BASF plant. This is only one example of many.
Please don't take this comment negatively. I don't wish you guys, what is currently happening! I hope you manage it to turn around.
The true strength of German industry lies in the German people. People of Germanic descent. And it is exactly those people that will be in short supply going forward. Those small family owned business have too few kids. And the recently imported Nigerian will not be able to take over even if he wanted.
The future of Germany inside the GAE (or EOL if you prefer) is agricultural.
Only an entry into BRICS will restore/keep alive an industrialized Germany.
I buy industrial & engineering equipment. Just ten years ago Chinese & Asian products were substandard compared to German. Now German product despite being much more expensive are no better than asian. Even German cars are getting a reputation for being unreliable.
An increase in production costs will cripple German industry.
Huge misinformation campaign put on by Russia and China. They are trying to instill fear and lack of hope and confidence. They should help their people first because this reality is more likely in Russia rather than Germany.
I am German and got to tell you: all in all a good analysis. Where you are (partially) wrong is in the economics part. Yes, Germany is dependent on cheap energy but no, even with energy ten times as expensive large parts of industry would survive. Case in point is the German circuit breaker industry. You will laugh and say: what, such a low technology product. But the point is that the technology is in the production and not in the product. The big advantage of Germany is it´s tool machine industry. Easily 30 percent of the most advanced tool machines (in lasers it is more than 50% look up Trumpf) of the world is produced in Germany. They constitute a dense network of small and mdium sized companies that are usually family owned. The German circuit breaker industry is profiting from its proximity to these companies. On top they also build specialist tool machines themselves. Every new generation of tool machines hike the productivity and lower the energy use to such an extent that nobody in the world can keep up. These are companies, like Hager, ABB-Stotz or Siemens.
You will never read it in the mainstream media but for instance General Electrics production in the US of any kind of HV equipment is being phased out. Con Ed and the other big grid operators in the US are switching to ABB-Stotz. ABB-Stotz equipment with the GE logo as this part of GE was sold to ABB about 5 years ago. GE simply couldn´t keep up anymore and therefore sold the name rights before that wasn´t worth anything anymore either.
Blackrock et al know all of this very well. They know where the true strength of German industry lies. But for now they can´t get their hands on the machine tool industry as it is almost completely in private hands. Same for the big tech giants. Up to know they haven´t been able to integrate them into their platforms. There is the well founded suspicion here in Germany that part of what the US is doing is to ruin Germany to such an extent that even these jewels will be up for grasp to be either integrated into big tech or else their know-how sold to China.
Hi :-)
Very interesting comment.
I can recommend everyone to read it.
Thanks.
Nevertheless, I want to give also a comment to it.
You are right on many things. I know many of these details.
Nevertheless, you seem to be an engineer and looking at things from a technical perspective.
You didn't weigh in macroeconomic considerations. Moreover, I assume you are and engineer for a very long time, right? It is typically for such people, to ignore the pace, with which China catches up with Germany and the West. In fact, when I was ten years ago in a Chinese factory, it was "okay". I visited a Chinese factory before Corona broke out and then I just needed to realize, that they took us (Europeans) over already. With own technology. Both, quantiative and qualitative. Hence, market shares. I know it, because I consultet the official statistics, and yes, China caught up.
I advice to you Germans... Wake up!
You are loosing the ability to lead the market with an astonishing pace.
The chemical industry currently vacates you, because of high energy prices. But you need the chemical products for your industry. Which results in inflation, if you need to import it going forward, instead of producing it locally in a BASF plant. This is only one example of many.
Please don't take this comment negatively. I don't wish you guys, what is currently happening! I hope you manage it to turn around.
The true strength of German industry lies in the German people. People of Germanic descent. And it is exactly those people that will be in short supply going forward. Those small family owned business have too few kids. And the recently imported Nigerian will not be able to take over even if he wanted.
The future of Germany inside the GAE (or EOL if you prefer) is agricultural.
Only an entry into BRICS will restore/keep alive an industrialized Germany.
I buy industrial & engineering equipment. Just ten years ago Chinese & Asian products were substandard compared to German. Now German product despite being much more expensive are no better than asian. Even German cars are getting a reputation for being unreliable.
An increase in production costs will cripple German industry.
Brilliant as always, Aleks. Thank you. Spot on with the green agenda. Happy new year!
Very consistent and comprehensive article . Greetings from Poland! :)
I like the way of thinking presented by the autor. My great respect. Greetings from Poland! :)
Thank you very much :-) Very kind comment.
Q.E.D.
1492 - 2022.
many thank, Happy new year for you too!!
Wonderful article, kindly do un update regularly,
Thank you
Huge misinformation campaign put on by Russia and China. They are trying to instill fear and lack of hope and confidence. They should help their people first because this reality is more likely in Russia rather than Germany.