I am still very curious about the Russian ICBM test-launch Friday, from southern Russia, very near the borders of Iraq and Iran, visible from both of those countries, and at a time of high anxiety.
It seemed to me to be a signal to avoid nuclear weapons, because Russia would have to get involved.
Yesterday there were reports that Russia had advised the US, through non-confliction channels, that if the US attacked Iran, Russia would have to support Iran.
This would serve to clarify the equation for the US, from probably-bad-idea to certainly-bad-idea.
China is allied, but seeks to be the silent partner, not taking risk, except when it is absolutely necessary. China can certainly not let Russia fall, and should help Iran discretely to not-fall.
I presume China has made policy clear to Russia and Iran, and given broader, politely-veiled hints to the US.
I suspect that Japan has a really clear view of all this, won't tell, but should be watched for actions.
Whatever the UK, Boris or Rishi, says, should be viewed as perfidy, as usual.
Iran’s strike was designed to send a signal to Israel and the United States, “that it could do what it did in Nevatim, at Ramona, anywhere in Israel, anywhere in the Middle East, and there was nothing the United States or Israel could do in response.”
“This is deterrence. This means that in the future, if either Israel or the United States plan on carrying out an action against Iran, they have to weigh in the consequences of their actions knowing that Iran has the capacity to reach out and touch any place, any spot, any target in the region in Israel or out of Israel, and there's nothing anybody could do to stop that,” the retired US Marine Corps intelligence officer said.
Armchair Warlord says:
Never thought I'd be in favor of cope propaganda, but here we go - right now the US is pretty clearly trying to get Israel to claim they shot everything down, declare victory, and forego a retaliatory attack on Iran.
In reality I expect 50% of Iranian ballistics fired penetrated as well as an unknown number of cruise missiles, indicating troubling underperformance by Israeli and American missile defenses - which were engineered to defeat this specific threat. In a rather telling admission CENTCOM only claimed three missiles downed (with what I assume was THAAD) despite what would have been dozens of engagement opportunities. There were about twenty ballistic arrivals caught on video last night and God only knows what else came in that eluded the cameras.
But, hey, whatever keeps a regional war from kicking off and allows Netanyahu to come off the ledge with some kind of grace. We're gonna cope our way to peace in the Middle East, folks.
I'm amazed by the absolutely batshit crazy level of lies coming out of Israel and it's zionist friends. "No missiles were intercepted in Israeli airspace." "No casualties." I don't know, do they actually think anybody is going to belive them? Or is it simply a reflex they can't shake?
The dust needs to settle and from tangible results I’d like to know the extent of the damage to the Israeli airfields.
Regardless, this is a turning point for Iran/Israel. Iran showed they are willing to retaliate and the U.S. not going to let itself dragged in (unless Israel is about to be completely defeated and assuming they can do anything about it)
The overture window is widened and a precedent has been set!
Biden admin clearly very uncomfortable with an escalation here. Big change from their default instinct of escalate-to-deescalate. Both Israel and Iran can extract concessions.
Netanyhu, in contrast, is very comfortable and practiced with bold moves. At a minimum I have to expect Bibi threatening to blow up the region, with immediate (but now cancelled) statement intending to re-escalate, got him a get-out-of-jail-free card vs US gov rhetoric on Gaza.
I also wouldn't be shocked if US Congress soon passes a generous Israel aid package, with enough air defense to make Zelensky cry. The other must-have for Netanyahu, will be that Israel's impunity to poke neighbors is re-affirmed. Not sure how exactly that happens, but when it is re-affirmed, further escalations become just a matter of time.
Iran, for its part, seems to have threaded the needle on making a healthy show of force, without starting a war with the US.
Gaza set to be screwed though, with media attention potentially re-focused on Israel-Iran threats of hostility
There will likely be no USA involvement militarily. ZOG is overdue to be dismantled. Goodbye Rothschild Banking Mafia. Goodbye Jewish destruction of Western Civ.
My first thought from observing the news is that the US is being pretty quiet about this. The strike on the consulate may have been the moment Biden said, "Uh, Bibi.." but it didn't take. And now this. Israel can't escalate further against Iran, that much is true. If they try, as Simplicius the Thinker says, they're way too small to defend themselves if it comes to a massive Iranian bombardment and everyone will flee anyway. of course, none of this helps Gaza except to keep Israel otherwise occupied. Whether Israel's position as regards a two-state solution changes when they realize how isolated they really are, I don't know.
Iran's position has grown stronger whereas Israel is a ship with a thousand leaks. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have fled Israel since 8th October. Now, due to this massive attack, the trend will probably intensify. It is very difficult to live under such permanent state of tension. At the begining I thought Israel was going to nuke Teheran but I dont think so now. Another important issue is the West Bank, where the despicable sepoy collaborators of the PLO are hated by the population. An insurrection against the PLO sepoys could be a hard blow to the sionist entity and open a second front.
Despite the fact Israel literally owns the USA, through the FED and the general bribery and blackmail of the countries officials, they cannot cope with an ever stronger axis of resistance in Syria, Lebanon, Irak, Yemen and Iran, which is gaining more and more prestige in the muslim sphere to the sunny western proxies despair. As a last note, the Ukranians will progressively be fading away from the western propaganda headlines and be soon near the breaking point.
I think this is a repeat of what Iran did after the death of Soleimani - The Iranians gave everyone advance warning of what they were going to do, where they were going to hit - that's why the US, UK etc had time to get their assets into place to counter the attack. The fact that with both of the Iranians retaliations they weren't able to be stopped is a wake up call that Iran won't just roll over any more and have the ability to cause damage
I am still very curious about the Russian ICBM test-launch Friday, from southern Russia, very near the borders of Iraq and Iran, visible from both of those countries, and at a time of high anxiety.
It seemed to me to be a signal to avoid nuclear weapons, because Russia would have to get involved.
Yesterday there were reports that Russia had advised the US, through non-confliction channels, that if the US attacked Iran, Russia would have to support Iran.
This would serve to clarify the equation for the US, from probably-bad-idea to certainly-bad-idea.
China is allied, but seeks to be the silent partner, not taking risk, except when it is absolutely necessary. China can certainly not let Russia fall, and should help Iran discretely to not-fall.
I presume China has made policy clear to Russia and Iran, and given broader, politely-veiled hints to the US.
I suspect that Japan has a really clear view of all this, won't tell, but should be watched for actions.
Whatever the UK, Boris or Rishi, says, should be viewed as perfidy, as usual.
Scot Ritter reports on Sputnik news.
Iran’s strike was designed to send a signal to Israel and the United States, “that it could do what it did in Nevatim, at Ramona, anywhere in Israel, anywhere in the Middle East, and there was nothing the United States or Israel could do in response.”
“This is deterrence. This means that in the future, if either Israel or the United States plan on carrying out an action against Iran, they have to weigh in the consequences of their actions knowing that Iran has the capacity to reach out and touch any place, any spot, any target in the region in Israel or out of Israel, and there's nothing anybody could do to stop that,” the retired US Marine Corps intelligence officer said.
Armchair Warlord says:
Never thought I'd be in favor of cope propaganda, but here we go - right now the US is pretty clearly trying to get Israel to claim they shot everything down, declare victory, and forego a retaliatory attack on Iran.
In reality I expect 50% of Iranian ballistics fired penetrated as well as an unknown number of cruise missiles, indicating troubling underperformance by Israeli and American missile defenses - which were engineered to defeat this specific threat. In a rather telling admission CENTCOM only claimed three missiles downed (with what I assume was THAAD) despite what would have been dozens of engagement opportunities. There were about twenty ballistic arrivals caught on video last night and God only knows what else came in that eluded the cameras.
But, hey, whatever keeps a regional war from kicking off and allows Netanyahu to come off the ledge with some kind of grace. We're gonna cope our way to peace in the Middle East, folks.
Some videos of the attack
https://nitter.poast.org/ArmchairW/with_replies
This is imo the key: "Iran has indicated that its retaliation is complete and will not proceed further unless Israel escalates the situation"
It can be interpreted as "We know this will piss you off, but if you don't sit this one out, we will come after you for real".
I.e. the real target was not military, but to dent Israels self-perception / image. While at the same time increasing Iran's image.
I'm amazed by the absolutely batshit crazy level of lies coming out of Israel and it's zionist friends. "No missiles were intercepted in Israeli airspace." "No casualties." I don't know, do they actually think anybody is going to belive them? Or is it simply a reflex they can't shake?
The dust needs to settle and from tangible results I’d like to know the extent of the damage to the Israeli airfields.
Regardless, this is a turning point for Iran/Israel. Iran showed they are willing to retaliate and the U.S. not going to let itself dragged in (unless Israel is about to be completely defeated and assuming they can do anything about it)
The overture window is widened and a precedent has been set!
Biden admin clearly very uncomfortable with an escalation here. Big change from their default instinct of escalate-to-deescalate. Both Israel and Iran can extract concessions.
Netanyhu, in contrast, is very comfortable and practiced with bold moves. At a minimum I have to expect Bibi threatening to blow up the region, with immediate (but now cancelled) statement intending to re-escalate, got him a get-out-of-jail-free card vs US gov rhetoric on Gaza.
I also wouldn't be shocked if US Congress soon passes a generous Israel aid package, with enough air defense to make Zelensky cry. The other must-have for Netanyahu, will be that Israel's impunity to poke neighbors is re-affirmed. Not sure how exactly that happens, but when it is re-affirmed, further escalations become just a matter of time.
Iran, for its part, seems to have threaded the needle on making a healthy show of force, without starting a war with the US.
Gaza set to be screwed though, with media attention potentially re-focused on Israel-Iran threats of hostility
There will likely be no USA involvement militarily. ZOG is overdue to be dismantled. Goodbye Rothschild Banking Mafia. Goodbye Jewish destruction of Western Civ.
My first thought from observing the news is that the US is being pretty quiet about this. The strike on the consulate may have been the moment Biden said, "Uh, Bibi.." but it didn't take. And now this. Israel can't escalate further against Iran, that much is true. If they try, as Simplicius the Thinker says, they're way too small to defend themselves if it comes to a massive Iranian bombardment and everyone will flee anyway. of course, none of this helps Gaza except to keep Israel otherwise occupied. Whether Israel's position as regards a two-state solution changes when they realize how isolated they really are, I don't know.
Iran's position has grown stronger whereas Israel is a ship with a thousand leaks. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have fled Israel since 8th October. Now, due to this massive attack, the trend will probably intensify. It is very difficult to live under such permanent state of tension. At the begining I thought Israel was going to nuke Teheran but I dont think so now. Another important issue is the West Bank, where the despicable sepoy collaborators of the PLO are hated by the population. An insurrection against the PLO sepoys could be a hard blow to the sionist entity and open a second front.
Despite the fact Israel literally owns the USA, through the FED and the general bribery and blackmail of the countries officials, they cannot cope with an ever stronger axis of resistance in Syria, Lebanon, Irak, Yemen and Iran, which is gaining more and more prestige in the muslim sphere to the sunny western proxies despair. As a last note, the Ukranians will progressively be fading away from the western propaganda headlines and be soon near the breaking point.
I agree with your observation. My analysis of recent events is here:
https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/iran-has-responded-to-israel
Israeli sources have confirmed total loss of Nevatim airfield, struck with 15 missiles.
https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1779439087285616716
That’s what they say although he has followers. It can’t be just him.
They have been escalating with violence for over 75 years so its hard to
Imagine they will stop.
I think this is a repeat of what Iran did after the death of Soleimani - The Iranians gave everyone advance warning of what they were going to do, where they were going to hit - that's why the US, UK etc had time to get their assets into place to counter the attack. The fact that with both of the Iranians retaliations they weren't able to be stopped is a wake up call that Iran won't just roll over any more and have the ability to cause damage
Am sure Israel will escalate the violence against Iran. It’s their modus operandi .
Will America make it to China for a War.?
Good points. Some other items that piqued my interest:
Jordan and Saudi Arabia took out some drones/missiles, effectively defending Israel. What to come of this?
Iran successfully struck the two bases from which the Consulate attack originated. True targets of the strikes.
Iran's strikes seemed to stress test the Iron Dome, not to mention the large cost differential (Israel spent more).
Cheers from Lincoln!
We've shared your link Aleks.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/war-reports-2024-04-15