Israel and the Fall of Syria and Beyond [i]
"The enemy of my enemy is my friend"
Israel, a tiny strip of land surrounded by hostile (to some degree) Arab nations but supported by mighty allies across the big pond called the Atlantic Ocean and a small pond called the Mediterranean Sea, is the de facto ruler of the Middle East.
One can hate Israel or love Israel, but one thing is a fact: Israel is more than competent in achieving its national goals and has the necessary means to do that.
The Israeli military, combined with its mighty intelligence apparatus, is the most competent in the Middle East, regardless of setbacks against Hamas and Hezbollah.
The “Fall of Syria” is a victory for Israel, and this event creates a whole set of
”new opportunities”.
Let’s step back for a moment and explore some possibilities:
When one connects the dots between October 7th (10/7) and now (the collapse of Syria), there is a pattern: Hamas was established and financed by Mossad, and it is more than certain that Mossad operatives or assets are present at the very core of Hamas and other Palestinian groups. Events of 10/7, no matter how it may appear to be a surprise, may have been planned as an excuse to take action, and what better excuse than an attack on its border?
You may ask what twisted mind could allow that and sacrifice innocent civilians, but to simplify, "You can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs” means that it is simply impossible to get something important done without creating a problem for someone else. In other words, sacrifice is necessary for the greater goal. Holly's books also speak about sacrifice at the altar, after all.
Palestinians, after 75 years of oppression and humiliation, reached a boiling point, and to release the pressure, a valve was open, and that valve was the heavily fortified border of Gaza. The "Surprise" attack stunned the public; civilians and soldiers were captured, and rockets pounded Israeli settlements. Israel ordered a “Hannibal Directive” in which Israel killed more of their citizens than Hamas did. Many celebrated in Gaza and the rest of the Middle East but there were those concerned about what might unfold. Conspiracy theories blossomed about how the infamous events of 10/7 happened, intimating that Netanyahu and his inner circle had prior knowledge and that it was all part of a global plan. Time will tell…
Let’s assume that 10/7 was a Hamas masterstroke and a total surprise for Israel. As a consequence, Israel consolidated its resources and started to use all means from (Western) media to military, and the outcome was obvious: Palestinians were exposed to genocide and Gaza was ruined to the state of disrepair. It will take decades to rebuild, but it will never be like before. It may be annexed and become part of Israel. Palestinians are facing annihilation or expulsion, and the people of the world, except for a few, do not give a damn. Arab governments are barking phrases but, in reality, looking for the elimination of Gaza. After all, Palestinians are no Arabs. So, maybe 10/7 was an egg broken to make an omelet.
Prior to 10/7, Syria, the traditional enemy of Israel, plunged into a civil war with all kinds of jihadists flooding the resistance ranks. Russia and Iran intervened and saved the regime for a time, but the US/EU/G7 forced inhuman sanctions that brought Syria to a breaking point. Even with that, Syria still had solid military power.
For Israel, the “enemy of my enemy is a friend of mine” ("Amicus meus, inimicus inimici mei") logic applied, and support for ISIS, Al-Qaida, and the whole set of hyenas, together with other groups supported by Turkey and the democratic West, came in for the kill after legal Syria was starved, depleted and plunged into poverty. The Syrian army gave up the fight. Russia and Iran couldn't fight for them.
This worked beyond expectation for Israel simply because Israel prefers to have these "democratic opposition" idiots in charge because they are not a significant danger to Israel. To make sure that these groups would not get SAA heavy weapons, IAF conducted target practice by destroying anything valuable, such as air defense equipment, warehouses with munitions, electronic warfare equipment, intelligence centers, research facilities, airfields, hangars, remaining airplanes, radars, etc.
Even 100K lunatics armed with hundreds of tanks, APCs, and pickups are just a joke for IDF because they are not an army but rather a loose gang of fanatics. They will be more interested in looting and enforcing Sharia than fighting. Syria plunged into disrepair and will likely be split into enclaves where Turks control deep inside Syria but are locked into a fight with Kurds and SDF. That will drain Turkey's economy without an opportunity to recover any significant portion of the Syrian oil and gas-rich areas. The US controls the rich oilfields and plunders while having an SDF infantry and heavy combat presence close by (air force bases) in case something gets loose. Israel occupied and annexed Golan, bringing them within artillery range of Damascus while also passing behind the Lebanese border, effectively positioning close to the Hezbollah-controlled areas from the back.
Mount Hermon (highest pick in Syria) is also of crucial importance for radar coverage: especially the low-level flying drones in southern Lebanon. It can easily cover the whole southern area and a portion of the Mediterranean Sea. Some small gaps can still be explained if Hezbollah wants to launch any kind of surprising attack but these gaps have shrunk tenfold since Israel took control of the strategic mountain and if placed "down looking" radar at the Mt. Hermon top.
The new "democratic" government in Syria led by "converted" jihadists served its purpose, so it is about time for them to be moved aside one way or another. They may be around for a while because a useful idiot standing idle is better than a charismatic leader gathering momentum into a meaningful force.
Strategically, eliminating Assad was a golden opportunity while simultaneously cutting the land connection between Iran and Hezbollah - mission accomplished. A border war with Hezbollah in Lebanon showed that Hezbollah is still strong, but it is a matter of time before it starts to weaken. It may take years, but remember that Israel plans for the long haul, looking decades into the future. Israel will soon have its army behind the Hezbollah-controlled areas, and what may happen is that Lebanon may plunge into a sectarian war, especially now that the SAA is gone. The situation is tense (not volatile yet, but that can change), and a tiny spark may be all that is needed to incite civil war in Lebanon. The Israeli army can cross from the occupied Syrian land, cut southern Lebanon from the rest of the country, and cause a scenario similar to Gaza: destruction to the point that civilians will be either starved, bombed, or forced to flee through safe corridors (if Israel establishes them) to Syria, or be exterminated. Syria also provides a dumping zone for Israel if they wish to forcefully deport the Palestinian population because once they are pushed over the new border, they become a problem for the new Syrian rulers, which means a perpetual sectarian war that Israel is going to watch from over the fence. Once all sides weaken, Israel may come for the kill.
Europe might expect to repatriate refugees to the "new” Syria, but that is just a dream. Under no normal circumstances will any of the Syrian refugees leave the safe sanctuary in the EU for uncertainty in the war-ravaged land. Living on the EU taxpayers’ money and making cash under the table is simply the order of the day. From the millions of refugees, some may even go back, to be realistic, but probably just the ones that Turkey forces to leave. There is another problem: those who are endangered now because of imminent retaliation and terror by the Jihadists will try to leave Syria. Therefore, one type of refugee will be replaced by another. The EU learned this lesson from the previous waves, so immigration procedures will be tightened. Some may even get out of Syria, but the majority will be at the mercy of the new "democratic head choppers." Israel couldn't care less for either, and the EU has a more important problem to deal with - Ukraine.
What will Arab governments do? Nothing (as always). They will condemn, threaten, and even send aid to different groups, but "baksheesh rulers" are not competent. The population will flood the streets demanding revenge and destruction of Israel, and they may attack Israeli diplomatic buildings (deja vu), but in reality, nothing will happen. The US will control the rulers so they don't make any "wrong moves."
What might happen with Yemen? That is a solid threat to Israel, and Yemen will likely soon be attacked by combined Israel, US, and NATO forces, supported by the "peninsula" coalition of Saudi Arabia and UAE. Yemen is just a stepping stone to the ultimate goal - Iran. For the time being, Mossad, CIA, and other agencies will continue and intensify the "fifth column" in Iran if Iran assembles operational nukes soon and puts on a demonstration that may delay any military intervention. Nukes are the only deterrence that Israel and the West will understand. That doesn't mean there won’t be attempts to overthrow the Iranian government, but at least there is a devastating weapon that someone may trigger.
Last but not least, we can discuss how Ukraine will be affected.
Zelensky is not happy that Russia will pull the majority of its Air Force and air defense assets from Syria and deploy them against Ukraine. Not a good outcome at all. Secondly, despite Ukrainian assistance to Jihadists in the form of drone warfare, the vast stockpiles of relatively modern heavy weaponry and munition that SAA left behind were destroyed by Israel, and there is nothing that can be done about that. Several hundred beaten tanks, APCs, and old-timer AD systems such as 2K12 (SA-3) or S-125 (SA-3) Pechora that may be operational can't make any difference. These items still need to be inspected, packed, and shipped out of the country, and some small-scale arms dealers based in Istanbul are touring the bases to see what can be re-used; it is just a drop of water in the ocean. There are hundreds of thousands of AKs, but Ukraine doesn't need them. What they needed was the heavy stuff, but that went up in flames. Russia took over some modern Pantsirs and Buks, and the rest were blown up; maybe a few will be available, but until they get to Ukraine, maybe Zelensky will be gone in similar circumstances as Assad but in the opposite direction. For now, Ukraine can only cheer that one regime supported by Russia is gone, but expectations that the terrorists will overcome and slaughter Russians in Syria is just a dream.
All in all, the big players created a mess. Someone will get more, someone less, but the ordinary people will be the losers.
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[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)
Yeah, yeah, the mighty MOSSADISTS organised 07/10 in every detail yet were totally unprepared to actually fight Mano a Mano in the concentration camp they created and surrounded all while destroying forever their once, so crucial, Hasbara basement industry of sallow, stinking and sullen IDF teenagers.
Interesting; but does nobody think that Erdogan took Damascus on his way to Tel Aviv? The Israelis don't feel threatened by having Erdogan next door in Syria? I should have thought that the Israelis were taking a big risk by letting Erdogan into Syria. Surely the Turkish army would crush the IDF?