Underground bunkers are typically constructed using reinforced concrete, steel-reinforced earth, or excavated mountain complexes. Their survivability depends on:
Depth of Burial (DOB)
Reinforcement Type
Redundant Layouts
Blast-Resistant Design
======================
Well done article and much appreciated
you covered it but I thought I would just add
Deflection, both natural ( granite mountain ) and man-made simply put - Reinforced concrete as a triangle in the shape of a triangle above any chamber not just a flat roof
So from what direction were the US planes approaching may make a difference a lot can make a difference
Of course the exact location of Chambers is a complete guess - one imagines Iran offsets Chambers from air ducts or entrances
Good imformational article. The problem is that even if the multiple MOP attack works (as suggested by the author) and the facility is destroyed it will delay but not stop any Iranian nuclear programme. Iran did not have a military nuclear programme, but after the Israeli attack - and especially after any US attack - they will move heaven and earth to get a bomb. Netanyahu and Trump could be said to be the fathers of the Iranian bomb.
This is awesome! Really good analysis and always a fan of anyone who uses that crater type chart. I put together a back of the envelop analysis of the "flying cost" of Midnight Hammer if you're into that type of thing.
I suspect satellite surveillance in the VIS/NIR will be inadequate for BDA. A better method would be to use a drone with a ground penetrating radar and tomography techniques. For example, see Gennarelli et al, "A low frequency airborne GPR system for wide area geophysical surveys:
The case study of Morocco Desert", in Remote Sensing Environment 233 (2019)
"The USAF may launch 4-6 B-2s flying from Diego Garcia, each carrying 2 MOPs."
Given what is know re: Iranian missile technology, how likely is it that the US/Zio planes would completely avoid being destroyed within Iranian airspace?
Iran likely still holds several strategic cards in reserve. It’s entirely plausible that their most advanced systems—or “aces”—have been deliberately withheld, awaiting the moment when a major power ("the Big Guy") directly enters the conflict. This kind of calculated restraint is consistent with Iran’s strategic doctrine: preserving high-value capabilities for maximum deterrence or decisive retaliation, rather than expending them prematurely in lower-stakes confrontations.
This is probably a larger concern than whether the MOP can destroy the facility. Everyone has known that this attack was inevitable since Trump tossed the JCPOA so the idea that the Crown Jewels of Iran’s program are still there is frankly retarded. The approach to the site is known. AD is pre positioned and camouflaged. Russia and China have advanced radars positioned to detect the bombers. The black eye from a downed B2, plus the real chance that Russia and China could get their hands on the carcass looms large in the calculus here. Again the point of this round of the conflict is to draw the US into a war that Israel cannot win alone let alone sustain for longer than a few more weeks so short of a nuke the MOP is the next best provocation. It’s all a massive risk. If Trump is indeed compromised and the Israelis are threatening to release the tapes of him fucking some child this could happen. Short of that it’s an incredible risk with only PR as a payoff.
So now that it happened and we wait for the consequences have to wonder whether the whole thing was a charade. Clearly Iran removed anything of value from these facilities long before today. Did they let Trump hit the empty facilities to satisfy the zionists and neocons? If Iran doesn’t escalate from here we have to consider that possibility. Or Iran is weaker than they made themselves to appear and the US called their bluff. Or of course they are waiting for the right moment for their revenge after licking their wounds. Trump is threatening to continue if peace doesn’t break out from here, Iran has to see that as more credible if this wasn’t a scripted act for public consumption.
The pervert and paedophile news is say the core ability to recover weapons grade still remains. What they may mean is that the Iran military got their reactor cores out of the way as soon as President Trump made the ultimatum
IIRC what I read decades ago, you need about 5 kilos of weapon-grade to make bomb. It shouldn't be too difficult to take a few crates and run to hide it double quick.
Whatever the results of the raid, the results to the politics look successful at the moment. Just remember what happens next when peace is proclaimed if it is not peace with God.
There is no material evidence (as of now) that a B-2 crashed; however, there are very strong indications that something significant was hit. My friend, who was the shift commander that night, is an officer with 20+ years of experience on the S-125 system. Several operators were also from the crew that downed the F-117A. In Air Defense, there is a post-action assessment called the "Parametric Analysis," where all records are compared, including radar pictures, azimuths, altitudes, velocities, etc. The large object that was hit by two missiles had a very unique blip on the screen, which was definitely not a decoy. Additionally, there were several fighters in the escort groups in the area.
There were also very unusual movements on the Croatian side, close to the border, reported by intelligence as well as locals. The area was immediately cordoned off, and movements of trucks were recorded for several weeks. The area was secured by Croatian police, while NATO (the US part of IFOR in Bosnia) was observed crossing the Sava River from Bosnia to Croatia back and forth. All in all, something was hit that night. I'm not saying it was a B-2 because I simply don't have a piece of wreckage to show, but there are strong indications that indeed something was hit and disappeared from radar in that area.
I know of an F-117 lost in Yugoslavia and at least one more damaged by AA missiles, I have never heard of a B2 lost to AA. Could you double check that photo?
One B2 was lost to a malfunction on takeoff in Guam (2008) and another was written off due to a fire on the ground after an emergency landing in 2022. There are only 19 of them now.
There is bunch of material on this topic, and few books.
The Americans, of course, deny it, but keep in mind: when RTS (Serbia main TV station) showed the downed F-117, US first claimed the footage was fake, then said it was real but that the F-117 went down due to engine failure, and only later that afternoon admitted it had been shot down by Yugoslavian air defense. It took them 12 hours to admit something that was OBVIOUS. For B2 who knows if they will ever confirm...
Just saying that there was a lot of noise back on 20. May 1999.
P.S. now I can not find that pictures from woods of Croatia... but from that pictures you could not say that it is a B2 but just workers in the wood around some wreckage.
One of the post shoot down pictures I saw was part of the F-117 wing re purposed by the local troops as a ROOF over their LATRINE. Funny as hell- Saw another recent picture where some of that same F-117 is still in a local museum, I expect the technically interesting bits soon ended up at a “design bureau” a bit further East.
Since there are 19 of the B-2 still flying and 2 acknowledged as written off, compare to # built. One test bed, upgraded to match the production and put into service. 20 production. Unless they are lying about # in service, don't think there is a B-2 out in the woods.
B2 - as I remember story goes like this: there were two non-flying prototypes for ground testing, 5 pre-prod planes, and 16 prod planes (pre-prod were also upgraded to prod. state). Now regarding two non-flying: one is in museum and second... second seems to get motors and start to fly! ;)
That is the story.
F117 - than circle is full! Since math theory behind F117 is found in some Russian paper work/book but Soviets did not see this to valuable since it was published publicly :) Americans did put math from paper to computers and decided to try to build it...
And the Russians promptly learned to scan for "holes" of no background RF moving at aircraft speed with kinetic profile matching maneuvering envelope of lifting body airframes. Amazing what signal processing can do if you can figure out the algorithm.
Shortly after, we quit the F-117/B2 schema (excessively compromising air frame performance for "stealth" design), now we just try to design military planes not to be unnecessarily HUGE RADAR reflectors.
The EM absorption coatings seem to have become a blind alley, nothing I know of is invisible to all the possible frequencies of multi spectrum sensor systems.
Perhaps the BEST solution is to have your neighbors NOT want to shoot at your planes? This approach seems to have worked for Trump last weekend.
If I recall from articles, the older, longer-wavelength radars actually picked up the F-117 rather well, which is why it was detected. Not easily, but detected, locked and hit regardless.
Later evolutions include scanning for "holes" as you mention, but that came as a separate logical response to the situation. Ironically, submarines have a similar problem, in which they need to match the background noise around them or they stand out as quiet holes in the ocean. In either case, we can file it under "too clever by half."
I have not seen it myself, however it is said that the second non flying prototype/airframe tester B-2 is at the Northrop facility at USAF Plant 42 in Palmdale, California. They claim to still be using it for testing and plan ing out the maintenance and upgrade programs for the flying airframes. They even leave it outdoors sometimes where people have taken pictures pretty recently.
I gather that it all works very well if the bunker buster can maintain trajectory and therefore power and impact, but it all goes haywire if the Iranians have built corners and detours into their structures.
The technique of putting angled surfaces above the protected zone to divert penetrators towards
one side or the other, causing a miss is an obvious measure.
But has anyone tried REACTIVE armor structures on a similar principle to the reactive armor "tiles" applied to armored fighting vehicles? Such devices would need to be at or just below the surface where the penetrator was at maximum velocity I expect.
Hard to say, but if anyone knows, that would be the Mossad.
If Mossad knew anything of value they would not have been so stupid as to attack Iran. Clearly dumb as buggery.
Underground bunkers are typically constructed using reinforced concrete, steel-reinforced earth, or excavated mountain complexes. Their survivability depends on:
Depth of Burial (DOB)
Reinforcement Type
Redundant Layouts
Blast-Resistant Design
======================
Well done article and much appreciated
you covered it but I thought I would just add
Deflection, both natural ( granite mountain ) and man-made simply put - Reinforced concrete as a triangle in the shape of a triangle above any chamber not just a flat roof
So from what direction were the US planes approaching may make a difference a lot can make a difference
Of course the exact location of Chambers is a complete guess - one imagines Iran offsets Chambers from air ducts or entrances
...................X..................... airduct entrance
.......................[ ]....halls stairs
......................................................[ ] Chamber ...
======================================
Awesome write-up Mike, and smooth editing Piquet (or did Aleks move to AI? 😁😁).
We'll find out in a day or two about the veracity of these strikes. Meanwhile, retaliation awaits.
AI is pretty good, but it occasionally misses (important) things. It makes my job a lot easier, though! Thank you for the kind words :-)
Good imformational article. The problem is that even if the multiple MOP attack works (as suggested by the author) and the facility is destroyed it will delay but not stop any Iranian nuclear programme. Iran did not have a military nuclear programme, but after the Israeli attack - and especially after any US attack - they will move heaven and earth to get a bomb. Netanyahu and Trump could be said to be the fathers of the Iranian bomb.
This is awesome! Really good analysis and always a fan of anyone who uses that crater type chart. I put together a back of the envelop analysis of the "flying cost" of Midnight Hammer if you're into that type of thing.
https://open.substack.com/pub/mpedia/p/in-the-spirit-of-accounting?r=anfu4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
Fucking amazing article. I'm gonna file it away in my military folder. Kudos.
I'm also gonna restack this.
I suspect satellite surveillance in the VIS/NIR will be inadequate for BDA. A better method would be to use a drone with a ground penetrating radar and tomography techniques. For example, see Gennarelli et al, "A low frequency airborne GPR system for wide area geophysical surveys:
The case study of Morocco Desert", in Remote Sensing Environment 233 (2019)
Thanks Mike.
Sorry this is even more timely now than when you posted it yesterday.
;-(
"The USAF may launch 4-6 B-2s flying from Diego Garcia, each carrying 2 MOPs."
Given what is know re: Iranian missile technology, how likely is it that the US/Zio planes would completely avoid being destroyed within Iranian airspace?
Iran likely still holds several strategic cards in reserve. It’s entirely plausible that their most advanced systems—or “aces”—have been deliberately withheld, awaiting the moment when a major power ("the Big Guy") directly enters the conflict. This kind of calculated restraint is consistent with Iran’s strategic doctrine: preserving high-value capabilities for maximum deterrence or decisive retaliation, rather than expending them prematurely in lower-stakes confrontations.
This is probably a larger concern than whether the MOP can destroy the facility. Everyone has known that this attack was inevitable since Trump tossed the JCPOA so the idea that the Crown Jewels of Iran’s program are still there is frankly retarded. The approach to the site is known. AD is pre positioned and camouflaged. Russia and China have advanced radars positioned to detect the bombers. The black eye from a downed B2, plus the real chance that Russia and China could get their hands on the carcass looms large in the calculus here. Again the point of this round of the conflict is to draw the US into a war that Israel cannot win alone let alone sustain for longer than a few more weeks so short of a nuke the MOP is the next best provocation. It’s all a massive risk. If Trump is indeed compromised and the Israelis are threatening to release the tapes of him fucking some child this could happen. Short of that it’s an incredible risk with only PR as a payoff.
So now that it happened and we wait for the consequences have to wonder whether the whole thing was a charade. Clearly Iran removed anything of value from these facilities long before today. Did they let Trump hit the empty facilities to satisfy the zionists and neocons? If Iran doesn’t escalate from here we have to consider that possibility. Or Iran is weaker than they made themselves to appear and the US called their bluff. Or of course they are waiting for the right moment for their revenge after licking their wounds. Trump is threatening to continue if peace doesn’t break out from here, Iran has to see that as more credible if this wasn’t a scripted act for public consumption.
The pervert and paedophile news is say the core ability to recover weapons grade still remains. What they may mean is that the Iran military got their reactor cores out of the way as soon as President Trump made the ultimatum
IIRC what I read decades ago, you need about 5 kilos of weapon-grade to make bomb. It shouldn't be too difficult to take a few crates and run to hide it double quick.
Whatever the results of the raid, the results to the politics look successful at the moment. Just remember what happens next when peace is proclaimed if it is not peace with God.
When they are saying peace:
https://biblehub.com/1_thessalonians/5-3.htm
US possible lost B2 over Yugoslavia in 1999. There were some picture of wreckage felt in Croatia forrest...
There is no material evidence (as of now) that a B-2 crashed; however, there are very strong indications that something significant was hit. My friend, who was the shift commander that night, is an officer with 20+ years of experience on the S-125 system. Several operators were also from the crew that downed the F-117A. In Air Defense, there is a post-action assessment called the "Parametric Analysis," where all records are compared, including radar pictures, azimuths, altitudes, velocities, etc. The large object that was hit by two missiles had a very unique blip on the screen, which was definitely not a decoy. Additionally, there were several fighters in the escort groups in the area.
There were also very unusual movements on the Croatian side, close to the border, reported by intelligence as well as locals. The area was immediately cordoned off, and movements of trucks were recorded for several weeks. The area was secured by Croatian police, while NATO (the US part of IFOR in Bosnia) was observed crossing the Sava River from Bosnia to Croatia back and forth. All in all, something was hit that night. I'm not saying it was a B-2 because I simply don't have a piece of wreckage to show, but there are strong indications that indeed something was hit and disappeared from radar in that area.
@David of light
I know of an F-117 lost in Yugoslavia and at least one more damaged by AA missiles, I have never heard of a B2 lost to AA. Could you double check that photo?
One B2 was lost to a malfunction on takeoff in Guam (2008) and another was written off due to a fire on the ground after an emergency landing in 2022. There are only 19 of them now.
There is bunch of material on this topic, and few books.
The Americans, of course, deny it, but keep in mind: when RTS (Serbia main TV station) showed the downed F-117, US first claimed the footage was fake, then said it was real but that the F-117 went down due to engine failure, and only later that afternoon admitted it had been shot down by Yugoslavian air defense. It took them 12 hours to admit something that was OBVIOUS. For B2 who knows if they will ever confirm...
Just saying that there was a lot of noise back on 20. May 1999.
P.S. now I can not find that pictures from woods of Croatia... but from that pictures you could not say that it is a B2 but just workers in the wood around some wreckage.
@David of light
Thanks for the response-
One of the post shoot down pictures I saw was part of the F-117 wing re purposed by the local troops as a ROOF over their LATRINE. Funny as hell- Saw another recent picture where some of that same F-117 is still in a local museum, I expect the technically interesting bits soon ended up at a “design bureau” a bit further East.
Since there are 19 of the B-2 still flying and 2 acknowledged as written off, compare to # built. One test bed, upgraded to match the production and put into service. 20 production. Unless they are lying about # in service, don't think there is a B-2 out in the woods.
B2 - as I remember story goes like this: there were two non-flying prototypes for ground testing, 5 pre-prod planes, and 16 prod planes (pre-prod were also upgraded to prod. state). Now regarding two non-flying: one is in museum and second... second seems to get motors and start to fly! ;)
That is the story.
F117 - than circle is full! Since math theory behind F117 is found in some Russian paper work/book but Soviets did not see this to valuable since it was published publicly :) Americans did put math from paper to computers and decided to try to build it...
And the Russians promptly learned to scan for "holes" of no background RF moving at aircraft speed with kinetic profile matching maneuvering envelope of lifting body airframes. Amazing what signal processing can do if you can figure out the algorithm.
Shortly after, we quit the F-117/B2 schema (excessively compromising air frame performance for "stealth" design), now we just try to design military planes not to be unnecessarily HUGE RADAR reflectors.
The EM absorption coatings seem to have become a blind alley, nothing I know of is invisible to all the possible frequencies of multi spectrum sensor systems.
Perhaps the BEST solution is to have your neighbors NOT want to shoot at your planes? This approach seems to have worked for Trump last weekend.
If I recall from articles, the older, longer-wavelength radars actually picked up the F-117 rather well, which is why it was detected. Not easily, but detected, locked and hit regardless.
Later evolutions include scanning for "holes" as you mention, but that came as a separate logical response to the situation. Ironically, submarines have a similar problem, in which they need to match the background noise around them or they stand out as quiet holes in the ocean. In either case, we can file it under "too clever by half."
@David of light
I have not seen it myself, however it is said that the second non flying prototype/airframe tester B-2 is at the Northrop facility at USAF Plant 42 in Palmdale, California. They claim to still be using it for testing and plan ing out the maintenance and upgrade programs for the flying airframes. They even leave it outdoors sometimes where people have taken pictures pretty recently.
How many loses US plan to have during this mission? Iran have around 20 SU-35 that still did not use (in underground bunkers)…
Is there any evidence that Israel planes flight over Iran? I only see drones and missiles so far…
I gather that it all works very well if the bunker buster can maintain trajectory and therefore power and impact, but it all goes haywire if the Iranians have built corners and detours into their structures.
I doubt we'll ever know how they worked.
Buckle up friends. We're in it now.
America Attacks Iran
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/america-attacked-iran
"The Key Nuclear Allegation that started the Iran-Israeli War was Coaxed from a Palantir Counter-Intelligence Algorithm"
Alastair Crooke, 20 June 2025
https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/the-key-nuclear-allegation-that-started?utm_source=cross-post&publication_id=3393451&post_id=166420180&utm_campaign=1655621&isFreemail=true&r=1oxuh7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
All theater, all the time :(
The technique of putting angled surfaces above the protected zone to divert penetrators towards
one side or the other, causing a miss is an obvious measure.
But has anyone tried REACTIVE armor structures on a similar principle to the reactive armor "tiles" applied to armored fighting vehicles? Such devices would need to be at or just below the surface where the penetrator was at maximum velocity I expect.