Jun 8, 2023·edited Jun 8, 2023Liked by Aleks, Mike Mihajlovic
To be fair, Zelenskii could put the footage of him personally planting the explosive that blew the dam on his personal and government YouTube accounts, *and* his passport would be mysteriously discovered amidst the wreckage, and the MSM still would immediately blame Russia.
Extraordinary analysis, thank you, sir. Time will tell how much of the lower dam was destroyed and it will be interesting to see how your analysis holds up once the damage can be fully assessed, but I suspect you are right on point.
Great analysis, as always 🙂 It seems to me that the Ukrainians purposefully added water to the reservoir from upstream sources, and continued to do so after the sluice gate failures. One item that I feel is important: how will the farmlands below the dam be impacted by the flooding? This season is lost, but will next year's crops be impacted?
I haven’t heard anybody make this point anywhere else, so far, but it seems to me that the reservoir behind the dam was turned into a weapon of mass destruction.
I was pointed here by commenters to my comments to some articles. We were discussing the dam and I'm consistently repeating there is no valid explanation for the overflow of the "earthen dam between the gate and the hydroelectric plant" which I call the "left-bank strip" for short.
There are images and videos showing this left-bank strip overflowing and being eroded. There are overhead images (presumably satellite) and also images from the ground.
With the exception of a theory put forward by Wikipedia, and my own theory that I'll get to, I have not read any theory that explains the flooding of this left-bank strip. People constantly seem to focus on explosions and other ways of destroying the sluice gates, like in what you write here. Yet if the sluice gates are destroyed (blown open), the water will flood OUT and the left-bank strip won't be flooded. Fortunately you seem to orbit the idea of sluice gates getting damaged in such a way they get closed. But you never actually go forward and make the linkage: "the only scientific explanation of the flooding of the left-bank strip is that Ukraine/Russia bombarded all or most of the 28 sluice gates, causing them all to fail closed, causing the water level behind to rise and eventually overflow the left-bank strip".
Yet this theory you never voiced can be dismissed because IF the gates had been damaged, they would have been damaged long before June 6th, and IF they had been damaged, they would show leakage like that one damaged gate you showed a picture of. And IF they had been damaged and were leaking, the leakage would show like it showed for that one sluice gate on those satellite images. Since there is no such phenomena on the photographic evidence, the theory can be dismissed.
Now we go to Wikipedia. Wikipedia states the Russians opened all the gates on the dam and basically drained the lake to it's lowest design level. It further goes on to state they didn't open the gates soon enough to let "seasonal variation" of waterflow out and this caused a buildup of water behind the dam and the dam's eventual collapse.
Yet fortunatelly, this theory can also be dismissed using Theia water level data. https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0089?lang=en This shows the water level of Dnipro just downstream of Kakhovka dam. As an added datapoint, speed of waterflow in rivers is related to the level of water in rivers. https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/how-streamflow-measured Basically, the higher the river, the faster the river. Now we can look at the waters of Dnipro. As we can clearly see, there is no seasonal variation in water level, meaning there is no seasonal variation in water flowing out of Kakhovka dam. For the record, the seasonality is "taken out of the equation" by the Kremenchutska dam and reservoir. Now, we don't see seasonality in Dniepro but what we DO see is an absolute UFO-level anomaly starting on Februrary 1st. Water level rises to unheard-of hights, three times higher than the previous maximum, and shows no signs of stopping. At the same time, the level of water in Kakhovka Lake rises by over 3 meters. It's obvious these two connected phenomena can't be caused by Russians either not opening the sluices or opening the sluices. The sluices of Kakhovka dam can't cause a simultaneous rise in both water levels of Dniepro and Lake Kakhovka. ASSUMING the flow into Lake Kakhovka is constant!
And that's the smoking gun, right there. The **ONLY** way to explain the simultaneous rise of both the water level of Dniepro AND Lake Kakhovka is to posit there was a massive increase in water flow entering Lake Kakhovka. This flow started on February 1st. It was greater than the maximum throughput of the Kakhovka dam, lead to buildup of water in Lake Kakhovka and eventually overflew the dam - INCLUDING the all-so-critical left-bank strip. This was 100% the work of Ukrainians. There was nothing the Russians could do to prevent this. Well, maybe they could have blown a hole in damaged gates but even then it's an open question and besides, arguing in this direction completely misses the point that Ukranians were deliberatly trying to flood the dam. Kakhovka was already more opened than it was ever before 2019. This is also provable by comparing the levels of water in Dniepro and Lake Kakhovka in the time 2019-2022.
Oh and BTW, the Theia water level data for Dniepro upstream of Lake Kakhovka is missing for the period after May 1st. I'd say that basically proves NATO was in on this little scheme. ;)
Some of my previous comments that I'll eventually have to collect into a blog post and point people to it.
Thank you for supplying the technical data and pictures. I strongly disgree with your analysis though: There is just no way that a periodic release of water at the Zaporothse Dam into a 18,2 Billion m³ lake reservoir could effectuate any dynamic forces on the Khachowka dam. The volume of the lake (dampening effect) is just far to big for that to be a reasonable possibility.
You should also acknowledge that the opening of just 6 sluice gates (as shown in your picture from the 28 May) could never be enough to drain the expected Dnjepr summer flowrate. Therefore the fast filling of the reservoir to a head of 17,5 m was not unexpected. On 8. June satellite imaginery shows overtopping of the dam between the turbine hall and the water lock channel, and overflow of the earthen dam in this area, suggesting a complete loss of control over the water level, a situation the russian command over the operation must have been aware for weeks now. From the pictures shown it also seems that not even the turbines were in operation during the whole time, retaining even more water in the reservoir, which is hard to justify at this point.
A controled demolition of damaged sluice gates in an effort to regain some control and evade overtopping would have been a very plausible course of action in this situation, but i think that we can all agree that the scale of destruction that pepetuated could not have been intentional. The theory that the demolition could have ignited preplaced mines (demo charges) is further increased be the fact that the pillars and all the bridge segments have been obliteraded, even those behind and in front of the turbine hall.
I think we are looking at massive levels of ineptitude and incompetence in the mangement of this situation which lead to this catastrophe.
Can you post the url for the video showing the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station releasing water? Also, are there any other sources that you know of that show how much water Ukraine was releasing upstream and when?
To be fair, Zelenskii could put the footage of him personally planting the explosive that blew the dam on his personal and government YouTube accounts, *and* his passport would be mysteriously discovered amidst the wreckage, and the MSM still would immediately blame Russia.
Extraordinary analysis, thank you, sir. Time will tell how much of the lower dam was destroyed and it will be interesting to see how your analysis holds up once the damage can be fully assessed, but I suspect you are right on point.
Great analysis, as always 🙂 It seems to me that the Ukrainians purposefully added water to the reservoir from upstream sources, and continued to do so after the sluice gate failures. One item that I feel is important: how will the farmlands below the dam be impacted by the flooding? This season is lost, but will next year's crops be impacted?
Cheers from Cheyenne!
I haven’t heard anybody make this point anywhere else, so far, but it seems to me that the reservoir behind the dam was turned into a weapon of mass destruction.
Quite heavy reading at midnight... :) :) :)
Can I try to resume the all reasoning as a liquid battering ram of water waves harmonics?
Maybe more if the dam above opened and closed the water flow?
Like a water pipe circuit without a properly functioning expansion vase?
Or I'm not even at Hydraulics 1-0-1???
Thanks Sir...
I was pointed here by commenters to my comments to some articles. We were discussing the dam and I'm consistently repeating there is no valid explanation for the overflow of the "earthen dam between the gate and the hydroelectric plant" which I call the "left-bank strip" for short.
There are images and videos showing this left-bank strip overflowing and being eroded. There are overhead images (presumably satellite) and also images from the ground.
With the exception of a theory put forward by Wikipedia, and my own theory that I'll get to, I have not read any theory that explains the flooding of this left-bank strip. People constantly seem to focus on explosions and other ways of destroying the sluice gates, like in what you write here. Yet if the sluice gates are destroyed (blown open), the water will flood OUT and the left-bank strip won't be flooded. Fortunately you seem to orbit the idea of sluice gates getting damaged in such a way they get closed. But you never actually go forward and make the linkage: "the only scientific explanation of the flooding of the left-bank strip is that Ukraine/Russia bombarded all or most of the 28 sluice gates, causing them all to fail closed, causing the water level behind to rise and eventually overflow the left-bank strip".
Yet this theory you never voiced can be dismissed because IF the gates had been damaged, they would have been damaged long before June 6th, and IF they had been damaged, they would show leakage like that one damaged gate you showed a picture of. And IF they had been damaged and were leaking, the leakage would show like it showed for that one sluice gate on those satellite images. Since there is no such phenomena on the photographic evidence, the theory can be dismissed.
Now we go to Wikipedia. Wikipedia states the Russians opened all the gates on the dam and basically drained the lake to it's lowest design level. It further goes on to state they didn't open the gates soon enough to let "seasonal variation" of waterflow out and this caused a buildup of water behind the dam and the dam's eventual collapse.
Yet fortunatelly, this theory can also be dismissed using Theia water level data. https://hydroweb.theia-land.fr/hydroweb/view/R_DNIEPR_DNIPRO_KM0089?lang=en This shows the water level of Dnipro just downstream of Kakhovka dam. As an added datapoint, speed of waterflow in rivers is related to the level of water in rivers. https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/how-streamflow-measured Basically, the higher the river, the faster the river. Now we can look at the waters of Dnipro. As we can clearly see, there is no seasonal variation in water level, meaning there is no seasonal variation in water flowing out of Kakhovka dam. For the record, the seasonality is "taken out of the equation" by the Kremenchutska dam and reservoir. Now, we don't see seasonality in Dniepro but what we DO see is an absolute UFO-level anomaly starting on Februrary 1st. Water level rises to unheard-of hights, three times higher than the previous maximum, and shows no signs of stopping. At the same time, the level of water in Kakhovka Lake rises by over 3 meters. It's obvious these two connected phenomena can't be caused by Russians either not opening the sluices or opening the sluices. The sluices of Kakhovka dam can't cause a simultaneous rise in both water levels of Dniepro and Lake Kakhovka. ASSUMING the flow into Lake Kakhovka is constant!
And that's the smoking gun, right there. The **ONLY** way to explain the simultaneous rise of both the water level of Dniepro AND Lake Kakhovka is to posit there was a massive increase in water flow entering Lake Kakhovka. This flow started on February 1st. It was greater than the maximum throughput of the Kakhovka dam, lead to buildup of water in Lake Kakhovka and eventually overflew the dam - INCLUDING the all-so-critical left-bank strip. This was 100% the work of Ukrainians. There was nothing the Russians could do to prevent this. Well, maybe they could have blown a hole in damaged gates but even then it's an open question and besides, arguing in this direction completely misses the point that Ukranians were deliberatly trying to flood the dam. Kakhovka was already more opened than it was ever before 2019. This is also provable by comparing the levels of water in Dniepro and Lake Kakhovka in the time 2019-2022.
Oh and BTW, the Theia water level data for Dniepro upstream of Lake Kakhovka is missing for the period after May 1st. I'd say that basically proves NATO was in on this little scheme. ;)
Some of my previous comments that I'll eventually have to collect into a blog post and point people to it.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-dam/comment/17043923 and the self-reply
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-nato-planned-trained/comment/17137305
Thank you for supplying the technical data and pictures. I strongly disgree with your analysis though: There is just no way that a periodic release of water at the Zaporothse Dam into a 18,2 Billion m³ lake reservoir could effectuate any dynamic forces on the Khachowka dam. The volume of the lake (dampening effect) is just far to big for that to be a reasonable possibility.
You should also acknowledge that the opening of just 6 sluice gates (as shown in your picture from the 28 May) could never be enough to drain the expected Dnjepr summer flowrate. Therefore the fast filling of the reservoir to a head of 17,5 m was not unexpected. On 8. June satellite imaginery shows overtopping of the dam between the turbine hall and the water lock channel, and overflow of the earthen dam in this area, suggesting a complete loss of control over the water level, a situation the russian command over the operation must have been aware for weeks now. From the pictures shown it also seems that not even the turbines were in operation during the whole time, retaining even more water in the reservoir, which is hard to justify at this point.
A controled demolition of damaged sluice gates in an effort to regain some control and evade overtopping would have been a very plausible course of action in this situation, but i think that we can all agree that the scale of destruction that pepetuated could not have been intentional. The theory that the demolition could have ignited preplaced mines (demo charges) is further increased be the fact that the pillars and all the bridge segments have been obliteraded, even those behind and in front of the turbine hall.
I think we are looking at massive levels of ineptitude and incompetence in the mangement of this situation which lead to this catastrophe.
Further reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_the_Kakhovka_Dam
Can you post the url for the video showing the Dnieper Hydroelectric Station releasing water? Also, are there any other sources that you know of that show how much water Ukraine was releasing upstream and when?
Thanks