1. It wouldn't matter if Zelenskii were to personally and officially release a video in which he fired a missile at the hospital while laughing manically. Russia will be blamed.
2. Ukraine has form in using hospitals, schools, etc. for military purposes, then crying foul when they are hit.
Nice approach, much appreciated. Few addenda and minor corrigenda. The hospital consists of many buildings, one of them was hit. Well, the main building (late Soviet architecture) wasn't hit. It is not correct to say "the hospital wasn't hit". The video, despite its bad quality, allows to measure the length of the missile by comparison with a building in appropriate (the same) distance, which in this case is the main building of the hospital, a 10 story building. The height of one floor over all is approx. 3 m - so the missile must be at least 5...6 m long. Definitely not AIM-120. I don't know, what kind of missile that was, X-101 doesn't fit either, but comes close in lenght. Arrival from a Western direction excludes ballistic missiles fired from the Russian side.
The hit building, a 2 floor building + basement with entrance from outside (pre WW2 architecture) is described as dep. of toxicology. It doesn't look to be equipped with bedrooms, looking more like a lab without patients inside. Considering that some 100 bedrooms in the main building and other corpuses got their windows blown inside, the numbers of wounded and dead is to be explained by glass wounds only and seems even slightly low.
The building could have been hit by intention - either some B or C lab or staff of such or even a separate building for placing other staff hidden inside a children's hospital.
A Soviet "Kub"/SAM-6 also gives the right profile...
It seems that a small electric substation was hit, in something like the courtyard, so shock and debris from that might have hit the windows on the hospital face. Also, an air-defense missile warhead fires a directional shrapnel field when detonated before impact with a plane or missile. The damage to the whole hospital face looks like that, not like a missile hit and made a hole anywhere.
Yes 3M9 of the Kub SAM system would fit both in size 5.8 m and in shape - so far the best suggestion I have seen. Thanks. I agree, that the damage pattern at the main building looks like AD +/- omnidirectional fired shrapnels. I did read John Helmer, but his claim that the substation within the hospital could have been the target isn't convincing at all. There is no need to destroy a 10 kV local substation, when you can get the 330 kV substation outside the city. Especially, as this may also affect the emergency power supply (colocated diesel generators) and subsequently kill patients relying on life support measures. It just looks like Helmer has no clue concerning the engineering of power supply (which is fine and obviously not his field of expertise).
excellent analysis, objective, based on facts, disciplined, extensive possibilities entertained, and only those satisfying rigorous logical, common sense, professional criteria pointed out.
Thanks. Lovely analysis. It is unfortunately a war and not every flying machine, especially missiles, are 100% reliable. What goes up, must come down. If the missile functions it will come down on target. If not, and it is in an urban area, it's bound to fall on something. The hospital is a pretty huge building, and the Kinzhals are accurate. I doubt a corner of a building would have been chosen.
1. It wouldn't matter if Zelenskii were to personally and officially release a video in which he fired a missile at the hospital while laughing manically. Russia will be blamed.
2. Ukraine has form in using hospitals, schools, etc. for military purposes, then crying foul when they are hit.
Nice approach, much appreciated. Few addenda and minor corrigenda. The hospital consists of many buildings, one of them was hit. Well, the main building (late Soviet architecture) wasn't hit. It is not correct to say "the hospital wasn't hit". The video, despite its bad quality, allows to measure the length of the missile by comparison with a building in appropriate (the same) distance, which in this case is the main building of the hospital, a 10 story building. The height of one floor over all is approx. 3 m - so the missile must be at least 5...6 m long. Definitely not AIM-120. I don't know, what kind of missile that was, X-101 doesn't fit either, but comes close in lenght. Arrival from a Western direction excludes ballistic missiles fired from the Russian side.
The hit building, a 2 floor building + basement with entrance from outside (pre WW2 architecture) is described as dep. of toxicology. It doesn't look to be equipped with bedrooms, looking more like a lab without patients inside. Considering that some 100 bedrooms in the main building and other corpuses got their windows blown inside, the numbers of wounded and dead is to be explained by glass wounds only and seems even slightly low.
The building could have been hit by intention - either some B or C lab or staff of such or even a separate building for placing other staff hidden inside a children's hospital.
A Soviet "Kub"/SAM-6 also gives the right profile...
It seems that a small electric substation was hit, in something like the courtyard, so shock and debris from that might have hit the windows on the hospital face. Also, an air-defense missile warhead fires a directional shrapnel field when detonated before impact with a plane or missile. The damage to the whole hospital face looks like that, not like a missile hit and made a hole anywhere.
I do not have a firm conclusion. I refer to John Helmer's piece: https://johnhelmer.net/the-kiev-childrens-hospital-the-russian-x-101-missile-and-the-ukraine-nasams-missile-the-warhead-evidence-medical-and-autopsy-reports-are-missing/
Yes 3M9 of the Kub SAM system would fit both in size 5.8 m and in shape - so far the best suggestion I have seen. Thanks. I agree, that the damage pattern at the main building looks like AD +/- omnidirectional fired shrapnels. I did read John Helmer, but his claim that the substation within the hospital could have been the target isn't convincing at all. There is no need to destroy a 10 kV local substation, when you can get the 330 kV substation outside the city. Especially, as this may also affect the emergency power supply (colocated diesel generators) and subsequently kill patients relying on life support measures. It just looks like Helmer has no clue concerning the engineering of power supply (which is fine and obviously not his field of expertise).
Helmer quoted several experts at the end of his article.
I also have no expertise, just the internet...
Mike,
excellent analysis, objective, based on facts, disciplined, extensive possibilities entertained, and only those satisfying rigorous logical, common sense, professional criteria pointed out.
Appreciated.
The video appears to show a KH55 missile, given it's distinctive shape.
Thanks. Lovely analysis. It is unfortunately a war and not every flying machine, especially missiles, are 100% reliable. What goes up, must come down. If the missile functions it will come down on target. If not, and it is in an urban area, it's bound to fall on something. The hospital is a pretty huge building, and the Kinzhals are accurate. I doubt a corner of a building would have been chosen.
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