Thanks Mike. Between all the competing narratives out there, your work is very sobering. Again an excellent piece by you. My english is not good enough to express my awe on such technical detail and complexity that you write. I am one of those that blindly believe in Russia's superiority, but it's good for my sanity to bring me back to the real stuff
Physicist Jean-Pierre Petit claims that advanced Russian missiles use magnetohydrodynamic controls to reduce friction and manoeuvre at high speeds. Thought it might be worth mentioning.
Thank you Mike, the amount of detail coupled with accessible explanation is very much appreciated.
Could you please shed a light on the use of s-300 missiles for attacking purposes? Ukrainian media and officials (incl. Mr Zelensky himself recently) keep on claiming Russia uses those modified missiles to attack Ukraine. As this concerns me personally I would like to understand the issue and its implications.
S-300 can launch in surface-to-surface mode. Some older system has that capability as well. For example, S-125 can do that. Bear in mind that it is an AD system and having this capability doesn't mean that it is optimal to use it. I personally never used that, neither I know anyone that used that. The question is why they should use it? Theoretically, if there are large stocks of the old missiles that can have some sense. On the other hand, an S-300 missile may have a technical malfunction or lost guidance and in that case, if the self-liquidation is not activated is a ballistic missile. Anyway, I would say that likely there are missiles interpreted as the use of ballistic missile attacks. I simply don't trust any Ukrainian sources. If they want to prove these claims, they can provide radar data otherwise it is just speculation.
Thank you for the expalnation. I don not trust the Ukrainian claims either. I want to understand why would they push this narrative absolutely everywhere and what implications that could have for my friends in there. It seems to me that Ukrainian officials are trying to cover up possible accidents involving their own air defence systems. But these are only my speculations, as I lack the technical understanding of how this all works.
Missile systems from the S-300P family use a special missile guidance system consisting of initial inertial guidance, with a transition to track via missile combined with sequential semi-active radar homing at the very end. In the West, this model of "guidance through a missile" is referred to as "seeker-aided ground guidance - SAGG" or loosely explained command guidance from the ground assisted by a seeker in a missile.
The use of this system for precise targeting of ground targets would require significant modifications in the guidance system because the system is limited by the capabilities of the missile guidance radar to capture, track and illuminate the target on the ground, but also by the ability of the homing head in the missile to receive such a signal, recognize and forward back to the command station with all the clutter around.
The point is that the narrative started with the claims that Russia is running out of missiles which was picked up by a majority of delusional Western media. The rest is just a buildup.
The bottom line, AD missiles can miss because of many reasons. If they are not self-liquidated, they will fall on the ground so it can be easily interpreted as using them instead of ballistic missiles. And the story is going on.
To me the most likely explanation is that these supposedly Russian S-300 in a G2G mode is actually Ukrainian S-300 that miss their target and land somewhere, better to blame Russia. This brings me to my question: in peacetime exercises AD systems stand on a majestic (or mosquito infested) training ground, firing at a drone target. In this war we have AD systems in Kiev, a major city full of modern tall buildings. Modern city buildings use metallized exteriors, or use energy efficient windows covered by a thin metal film: all reflectors of MMW radiation. This has to confuse an AD missile chasing at least a low flying target. Are you aware of any studies around this?
Lord Posonby's Ten Commandments of Wartime Propaganda:
We don't want war, we are only defending ourselves!
Our adversary is solely responsible for this war!
Our adversary's leader is inherently evil and resembles the devil
We are defending a noble cause, not our particular interests!
The enemy is purposefully committing atrocities; if we are making mistakes this happens without intention
The enemy makes use of illegal weapons
We suffer few losses, the enemy's losses are considerable
Recognized intellectuals and artists support our cause
Our cause is sacred
Whoever casts doubt on our propaganda helps the enemy and is a traitor
OH MAN!! You've got to see this!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCCwc8F99XA
'We all know who like to talk to use while he's high' - Ukrainian citizen
Thanks Mike. Between all the competing narratives out there, your work is very sobering. Again an excellent piece by you. My english is not good enough to express my awe on such technical detail and complexity that you write. I am one of those that blindly believe in Russia's superiority, but it's good for my sanity to bring me back to the real stuff
Thank you!
Physicist Jean-Pierre Petit claims that advanced Russian missiles use magnetohydrodynamic controls to reduce friction and manoeuvre at high speeds. Thought it might be worth mentioning.
Yes, I remember that I saw a RAND article discussing feasibility of controlling a hypersonic vehicle with the interaction of a magnetic field.
Thank you Mike, the amount of detail coupled with accessible explanation is very much appreciated.
Could you please shed a light on the use of s-300 missiles for attacking purposes? Ukrainian media and officials (incl. Mr Zelensky himself recently) keep on claiming Russia uses those modified missiles to attack Ukraine. As this concerns me personally I would like to understand the issue and its implications.
You are welcome.
S-300 can launch in surface-to-surface mode. Some older system has that capability as well. For example, S-125 can do that. Bear in mind that it is an AD system and having this capability doesn't mean that it is optimal to use it. I personally never used that, neither I know anyone that used that. The question is why they should use it? Theoretically, if there are large stocks of the old missiles that can have some sense. On the other hand, an S-300 missile may have a technical malfunction or lost guidance and in that case, if the self-liquidation is not activated is a ballistic missile. Anyway, I would say that likely there are missiles interpreted as the use of ballistic missile attacks. I simply don't trust any Ukrainian sources. If they want to prove these claims, they can provide radar data otherwise it is just speculation.
Thank you for the expalnation. I don not trust the Ukrainian claims either. I want to understand why would they push this narrative absolutely everywhere and what implications that could have for my friends in there. It seems to me that Ukrainian officials are trying to cover up possible accidents involving their own air defence systems. But these are only my speculations, as I lack the technical understanding of how this all works.
Missile systems from the S-300P family use a special missile guidance system consisting of initial inertial guidance, with a transition to track via missile combined with sequential semi-active radar homing at the very end. In the West, this model of "guidance through a missile" is referred to as "seeker-aided ground guidance - SAGG" or loosely explained command guidance from the ground assisted by a seeker in a missile.
The use of this system for precise targeting of ground targets would require significant modifications in the guidance system because the system is limited by the capabilities of the missile guidance radar to capture, track and illuminate the target on the ground, but also by the ability of the homing head in the missile to receive such a signal, recognize and forward back to the command station with all the clutter around.
The point is that the narrative started with the claims that Russia is running out of missiles which was picked up by a majority of delusional Western media. The rest is just a buildup.
The bottom line, AD missiles can miss because of many reasons. If they are not self-liquidated, they will fall on the ground so it can be easily interpreted as using them instead of ballistic missiles. And the story is going on.
Thanks for taking your time to explain.
You are welcome
To me the most likely explanation is that these supposedly Russian S-300 in a G2G mode is actually Ukrainian S-300 that miss their target and land somewhere, better to blame Russia. This brings me to my question: in peacetime exercises AD systems stand on a majestic (or mosquito infested) training ground, firing at a drone target. In this war we have AD systems in Kiev, a major city full of modern tall buildings. Modern city buildings use metallized exteriors, or use energy efficient windows covered by a thin metal film: all reflectors of MMW radiation. This has to confuse an AD missile chasing at least a low flying target. Are you aware of any studies around this?
Do Iskander and Kinzhal not perform evasive maneuvers when approaching the target?
They can do corrections