Excellent and detailed information and analysis as usual, which if I understood it correctly, means that while some shallow damage was inflicted on entrances and ventilation shafts, it is unlikely any substantive damage was inflicted on Iranian nuclear capability.
The thought of Trump having the nous or attention span to read this level of analysis is amusing.
One question: given that much of this may be a form of theatre, how sure are we that binder busters were actually used? The US has a limited number of them and they are very expensive. It's not above the US to completely lie about it, and if they weren't used, that helps explain why Iran's response was very light.
I think it's all theater (or ballet?), all the time - especially as it seems the US and Iran gave each other pre-warnings before they struck. I no longer believe anything President By-Deception-Shalt-Thou-Wage-War Trump says and I think he's totally destroyed his credibility as a negotiating party. The US, Israel and Iran are all claiming victory/success in the 12-Day Zion-Iran War. Ridiculous!
We're supposed to be fooled by all this propaganda, lies and nonsense?!
Isn't the whole performance really about clearing the way to turn Gaza, The West Bank, The Golan and parts of Israel into a giant real-estate re-development project using Saudi and Gulf Arab money? BB/Trump/Kushner condos and hotels, The Ben Gurion Canal, Gaza Marine oil and gas?
Just give Iran USD30bn and lift sanctions so that the Iranians won't interfere?
"The wolves are fed and all the cattle accounted for" is a great allegory.
I am inclined to believe the administration didn't care about the strike result. The attack was designed to get the US out of the trap laid by Israel, which was join the war or suffer domestic political catastrophe. So far, it worked. As you say, the long term strategic effects are yet unknown, but that's a future problem.
People interested in more on deep penetrators should watch "“ TERRADYNAMICS ” EARTH PENETRATION BY PROJECTILES 1967 SANDIA LABORATORY RESEARCH FILM 68464" on Youtube.
One more thing that should always be mentioned -- the primary purpose of the GBU-57 and the GBU-43/B MOAB (which get easily mixed up in ordinary people's minds) is to serve as a cover up for the use of small tactical nukes, which are really the only way to destroy a lot of targets.
Because what happens is that it is surprisingly easy to convince people that a given unusually large explosion is the result of a 10-15 ton bomb rather than what is in front of their eyes. This is why those huge conventional bombs get talked about constantly.
In reality they are thoroughly impractical as only the B-2 can carry them and then it has to directly overfly the target, which will simply not happen in Russia or China, it will be shot down shortly after it enters the airspace. In fact we still have no solid evidence any B-2 actually flew over Iran, or that if they did fly, Iranian air defense was actively trying to shoot them down.
But let's set that aside, the general point is that if you want to kill hardened targets you do it with a half-a-kiloton dial-a-yield nuke on a missile, and then tell the public it was a huge conventional bomb that did it, or that it was many conventional bunker busters stacked one after another. The media then repeats it non-stop and it becomes the accepted truth and nobody thinks much about what actually happened. The side that is the victim in turn keeps quite because if it acknowledges that it was nuked, it opens itself and others to more of that, or it has to retaliate in kind, which either might not be desirable, or just technically possible for most.
In this case there is no evidence tactical nukes were used, and seismographs did not pick up anything at that time. But this might be a set up for later...
Weapons causing earthquakes, cataclysms, continental shifts, volcano eruptions, pyroclasts, wildfires, floods, temperature extremes below 50 C or above 50C, blinding the sun, shock waves starting in New Mexico going around the world destroying parts in Greenland, Moskou or Beijing or New York and Los Angeles,…our nucleair and satellite wars with sleeping drones becoming obsolete, wars coming from so-called natural catastrophes but now man made. The deep and beyond space is the future, Ai, Technocratie and Palantir and all the think tanks have to go back to the schoolboard.
Forgot Aliens, Asteroids, vaccines, nerve gases, mind altering drugs and propaganda and of course Terminator but then I have to get more Hollywood inspired, for the moment I’m blank.
A good article about what could bring into question the true result against the over the top claims. The problem is that Trump and his team jumped the gun before accurate BDA could be undertaken by claiming complete 'obilteration'. Now they feel that they have to defend their claims even when contridictory evidence emerges. I am not sure at present what the actual result was but Trump's immediate claim and subsequent defence are unhelpful. It obscures the truth, politicizes the information as it emerges and does not allow for rational analysis.
Note the UP TO part. I highly doubt that the kinetic force of terminal velocity is sufficient to drive it 60m into mountain rock. Into regular earth, sure, into shale, sure.
The collective intelligence of the collective West would be incapable of understanding your assessment. Regardless, it's brilliant. . . thank you.
Thank you!
Excellent and detailed information and analysis as usual, which if I understood it correctly, means that while some shallow damage was inflicted on entrances and ventilation shafts, it is unlikely any substantive damage was inflicted on Iranian nuclear capability.
The thought of Trump having the nous or attention span to read this level of analysis is amusing.
As always, your analysis is detailed and precise.
One question: given that much of this may be a form of theatre, how sure are we that binder busters were actually used? The US has a limited number of them and they are very expensive. It's not above the US to completely lie about it, and if they weren't used, that helps explain why Iran's response was very light.
I think it's all theater (or ballet?), all the time - especially as it seems the US and Iran gave each other pre-warnings before they struck. I no longer believe anything President By-Deception-Shalt-Thou-Wage-War Trump says and I think he's totally destroyed his credibility as a negotiating party. The US, Israel and Iran are all claiming victory/success in the 12-Day Zion-Iran War. Ridiculous!
We're supposed to be fooled by all this propaganda, lies and nonsense?!
Isn't the whole performance really about clearing the way to turn Gaza, The West Bank, The Golan and parts of Israel into a giant real-estate re-development project using Saudi and Gulf Arab money? BB/Trump/Kushner condos and hotels, The Ben Gurion Canal, Gaza Marine oil and gas?
Just give Iran USD30bn and lift sanctions so that the Iranians won't interfere?
Nice to read the bare facts and still know little about the attack on a nuclear program which isn’t making bombs.
Who would want to join that club?
"The wolves are fed and all the cattle accounted for" is a great allegory.
I am inclined to believe the administration didn't care about the strike result. The attack was designed to get the US out of the trap laid by Israel, which was join the war or suffer domestic political catastrophe. So far, it worked. As you say, the long term strategic effects are yet unknown, but that's a future problem.
Very clear and informative. Thank you!
You did it to us again: damn good cook!
Excellent analysis.
People interested in more on deep penetrators should watch "“ TERRADYNAMICS ” EARTH PENETRATION BY PROJECTILES 1967 SANDIA LABORATORY RESEARCH FILM 68464" on Youtube.
Excellent, as always. Best to family, all❤️🐈⬛
Thank you!
One more thing that should always be mentioned -- the primary purpose of the GBU-57 and the GBU-43/B MOAB (which get easily mixed up in ordinary people's minds) is to serve as a cover up for the use of small tactical nukes, which are really the only way to destroy a lot of targets.
Because what happens is that it is surprisingly easy to convince people that a given unusually large explosion is the result of a 10-15 ton bomb rather than what is in front of their eyes. This is why those huge conventional bombs get talked about constantly.
In reality they are thoroughly impractical as only the B-2 can carry them and then it has to directly overfly the target, which will simply not happen in Russia or China, it will be shot down shortly after it enters the airspace. In fact we still have no solid evidence any B-2 actually flew over Iran, or that if they did fly, Iranian air defense was actively trying to shoot them down.
But let's set that aside, the general point is that if you want to kill hardened targets you do it with a half-a-kiloton dial-a-yield nuke on a missile, and then tell the public it was a huge conventional bomb that did it, or that it was many conventional bunker busters stacked one after another. The media then repeats it non-stop and it becomes the accepted truth and nobody thinks much about what actually happened. The side that is the victim in turn keeps quite because if it acknowledges that it was nuked, it opens itself and others to more of that, or it has to retaliate in kind, which either might not be desirable, or just technically possible for most.
In this case there is no evidence tactical nukes were used, and seismographs did not pick up anything at that time. But this might be a set up for later...
Orshnik didnt demage Factоry in DNIPRO ( foremrly Dneprpetrvski) from space wth 11 max No
BUT GBU detroy fomr 12 .k meter Targhet..thank you Holliwood.
Really excellent article, thank you!
Weapons causing earthquakes, cataclysms, continental shifts, volcano eruptions, pyroclasts, wildfires, floods, temperature extremes below 50 C or above 50C, blinding the sun, shock waves starting in New Mexico going around the world destroying parts in Greenland, Moskou or Beijing or New York and Los Angeles,…our nucleair and satellite wars with sleeping drones becoming obsolete, wars coming from so-called natural catastrophes but now man made. The deep and beyond space is the future, Ai, Technocratie and Palantir and all the think tanks have to go back to the schoolboard.
Forgot Aliens, Asteroids, vaccines, nerve gases, mind altering drugs and propaganda and of course Terminator but then I have to get more Hollywood inspired, for the moment I’m blank.
A good article about what could bring into question the true result against the over the top claims. The problem is that Trump and his team jumped the gun before accurate BDA could be undertaken by claiming complete 'obilteration'. Now they feel that they have to defend their claims even when contridictory evidence emerges. I am not sure at present what the actual result was but Trump's immediate claim and subsequent defence are unhelpful. It obscures the truth, politicizes the information as it emerges and does not allow for rational analysis.
They wanted to avoid risking escalating overreaction by Trumpsters by taking out the airports and the contsiner ports.
"Up to 60m underground"
Note the UP TO part. I highly doubt that the kinetic force of terminal velocity is sufficient to drive it 60m into mountain rock. Into regular earth, sure, into shale, sure.
That's also assuming that what they wanted to hit was within that claimed depth.