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Jun 24, 2023Liked by Aleks

Andrei Martyanov blog:

As Was Expected...

... the dawning of reality is in progress for the criminal and his group of accomplices that the game is up.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced on Saturday that he had arranged a deal whereby Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin will abandon his mutiny in exchange for “security guarantees” for his fighters. “Evgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of President Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed men of Wagner in Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tension,” read a statement from Lukashenko's office. According to the statement, Lukashenko and Prigozhin held talks for the “whole day,” and “came to an agreement on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloodbath on the territory of Russia.”

Wagner returns to its camps near Bakhmut and Soledar and the procedures of disarming and dismantling start from there. Naturally, all camps will be blocked by military. After that FSB and Investigative Committee will start work. Prigozhin, most likely, will try to escape to 404 where his contacts, both GUR and MI6, are but I doubt anyone will let him. Now, what was the last straw for Prigozhin? Simple--MoD refused to extend contract with Wagner. And as I stated not for once--the real history of Bakhmut is not what you read in shitty TG channels and most media.

Now, people call me, and I just did 1.5 hour podcast with Vera, Marat and Vladimir, but it is on VK only, sadly. A lot have been said there, including about some, very few, people in MoD who will be forced to do some splainin'. Was there a plan on the part of 404 GUR and Bitidh? Yes, most likely, but they thought--they really did, that is how amateur they are--that "counteroffensive" will succeed and once the front line is breached, Wagner will start mutiny. Well, as you all know the "counteroffensive" turned into a slaughter of VSU and NATO personnel and equipment, and the noose around Wagner and Prigozhin started to tighten and that is what we've got. In any case, the response of Russian society was unequivocal support of President and condemnation of traitors, who now will deal with severe consequences.

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author

Thank you. Sounds very reasonable and similar to my thoughts. I will check that information.

Unfortunately, since I'm in motion currently, I can't check all incoming news. That's why I appreciate your (community) support.

I didn't plan to be at mu phone or computer this weekend.

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Nothing to add to Martyanov’s assessment. It’s on point. The foreign connection has a high probability as well (which I myself didn’t want to believe) but after reviewing Prigozhin’s recent pronouncements and the narrative spun by the west prior to the counteroffensive is getting higher in probability.

One thing I’ll add is Prigozhin needs to be “eliminated”. Not today or tomorrow but in a matter of weeks or a few months. It needs to be made clear that the price of treason is death.

Next is to clean up Wagner and absorb whatever elements of it that make sense into the RuAF. PMCs have their place but none should have as much power or grow as large as Wagner was allowed.

Last, continue cleaning up and streamlining the MoD. Make it the most formidable fighting force in the world while ensuring it has 100% loyalty to Russia and its government (especially Putin).

In parallel do diplomatic damage control. Bringing this under control in 24hrs is very good but doesn’t remove all the optics damage. Trust needs to be built back up and this taken advantage of to increase trust even higher than before.

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Jun 24, 2023Liked by Aleks

Even I find it hard to believe that Prighozin sold himself to Western services. As Alex and Martyanov also claim, we do not know the whole story. I do not share the opinion of condemning the head of Wagner to death, since he could become a martyr a powerful symbol and therefore I would prefer a fair trial.

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There was a video of Putin in an old interview where he was asked can there be no forgiveness. Putin said yes but not for all. The interviewer asked, then not for what?

Putin answered ... treason.

I agree with him.

The probability that this was Maskirovka is now zero. This was real. And as such it was treason. Everything else flows naturally...

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Prigo must be 'Danton' or 'Robespierreized'.

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I reckon he won't have enough supporters inn Russia to be a martyr.

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Navany is not popular at all and never was but he holds his 2 % crowd anyway. Of course you don't coup anyone in Russia with 2% but look in Ukraine they did it with even less(llov rabid nazis, foreign mercenaries when it turned violent and 5 billions from Nuland).

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Thanks, and yes, Andrei is a credible source; I'll wait before venturing any opinions on this or speculate which is most unhelpful in what I hope and pray for - the multipolar world. I keep in mind how desperate and seemingly incompetent the collective west has become; nothing is ever off the table.

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You should listen to Andrei Martyanov. He's an expert on Russian military and naval issues. He was born in Baku, USSR, graduated from the Kirov Naval Red Banner Academy and served as an officer on the ships and staff position of Soviet Coast Guard through 1990. His channel on YouTube is "smoothieX12" and it's extremely healthy to get a Russian perspective on all this. He's Hysterical and doesn't mince words of the STUPIDTY of NATO and NATO GENRALS!! Always good for a laugh!!

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author

Of course.

Thanks. I absolutely respect him and I interviewed him recently.

And I will check his opinion as well. My problem is always my time limitation.

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It's just a 17.43-minute video. Pretty short for him.

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Agree.. most enlightening.. and highly amusing!

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Jun 25, 2023Liked by Aleks

Larry Johnson from Sonar21.com:

What if the Prigozhin “Coup” is Maskirovka? I want to explore that possibility. Earlier today (Saturday on the east coast of the U.S.) I was sketching out a piece with the catchy title, “PRIGOZHIN — PUTSCH OR PLOY?” Well, that swell idea was blown away like the Kakhovka Dam when the narrative about the Prigozhin plan to march on Moscow and personally strangle Russian Defense Minister Shoigu went full-on Nadia Comăneci — i.e., back flip. Prigozhin ordered “his” troops back to their bases, cut a deal with the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to go into exile and will face no judicial punishment. WHAT????? No bloodshed? No miles of burning tanks? And no Mussolini neck tie for Vladimir Putin? What the hell?!!

Man, you could feel the disappointment and frustration emanating from the Washington establishment. The political equivalent of premature ejaculation. Last night (Friday) you could hear the popping of champagne corks and popcorn as media and intelligence officials huddled around computer screens awaiting images of a distraught Putin running naked away from the Kremlin. Biden and his team remind me of Wiley Coyote in terms of the despair they suffer as they watch their harebrained schemes to catch Putin crash and burn.

While I cannot firmly dismiss the possibility that Prigozhin attempted this coup on his own (or with the encouragement of an outside backer), I want to present the Maskirovka scenario.

Let us start with these facts:

The Wagner Group was established by Russian intelligence organizations and funded by the Russian Government. Many in the West mistakenly believe that Prigozhin has deep pockets and is paying Wagner’s bills and, despite having ZERO military experience, is the commander of the outfit. As the Russians say, NYET!

Russia is considered by the U.S. and the rest of NATO as a dictatorship. Prigozhin has been shooting his mouth off for months spouting threats against the Russian military and, indirectly, at Putin but has suffered no arrest or sanction. Does this mean Russia is not a dictatorship?

Prigozhin ostensibly launched the coup, according to his own words on Friday, because the Russian MOD hit an encampment of Wagner troops training for war with missiles, shells and rockets. But the alleged video of the incident showed no casualties. Today, Prigozhin backed away from that claim and now insists he was just protesting the MOD’s move to bring the Wagner Group into the Russian Army.

The Russian Government waited about 12 hours before sending police/military forces to the Wagner Group headquarters in St. Petersburg. Little sense of urgency.

Prigozhin reportedly ordered a column of Wagner troops to go from Rostov on Don to Moscow to dethrone Shoigu and maybe General Gerasimov. Take a look at the map. That is a distance of almost 1200 kilometers. How was that column of trucks and tanks supposed to refuel and cover that distance in less than 20 hours?

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author

Yes.

Unfortunately, while I was writing my piece and releasing it yesterday, the information came out about the Belarus deal.

As I always say, you need to wait 48 hours and most circumstances will be clear.

Today these 48 hours will end and I will write another piece with the newest information.

Thank you 👍

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Jun 25, 2023Liked by Aleks

Of course writing an analysis of what is happening in Russia at the moment is not easy at all, I don't envy you. Scott Ritter offers a still different interpretation of the facts and seems more inclined to believe that Prighozin acted in accordance with the Ukrainians, to satisfy his personal ambitions.

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author

Thank you👍

Check out my new article. I covered Ritter's approach as well there in short.

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Jun 24, 2023Liked by Aleks

Prigozhin ima 50.000 "uposlenika". FSB mu je rekvirirao 47.000.000 USD placa. Posao na istoku Ukrajine je odradio i sada regularne ruske postrojbe mogu same nastaviti.

Ergo, u dogovoru sa Putinom, Lukashenko mu je ponudio novi posao: u Bjelorusiji (eliminacije i borbe protiv Ukronacija, Poljaka, zapadnih plaćenika, proboj ka Kaliningrad-u ako bide potrebno, Kiev-u itd) vratit ce mu i 48 mil USD koje su mu "uzeli"...

Mislim da se ovakav Ugovor - kojeg garantiraju i Putin i Lukashenko - ne može odbiti? Isti Ugovor amnestira sve njegove postrojbe i pojedince....

A što ako Ugovor uključuje i "preventivene" upade na teritorije okolnih država (Litva, Latvija, Estonija, Poljska, Ukrajina.... ?

Također tu su ako treba u Pridnjestrovlje ili Odesu; ako se pokrene US Airborne iz Rumunjske.... itd, itd, tu su !

Kremlj otkrio detalje sporazuma s Prigožinom

24. jun 2023 21:59

| Obnovljeno: 24. jun 2023 21:59

Prigožin će otići u Belorusiju, "Vagnerovci" će moći da potpišu ugovore sa Ministarstvom odbrane RusijePortparol Kremlja Dmitrij Peskov rekao je da će krivični postupak protiv vođe grupe "Vagner" biti povučen.

Ruska Federalna služba bezbednosti (FSB) pokrenula je krivični postupak protiv vođe grupe "Vagner" Jevgenija Prigožina zbog poziva na oružanu pobunu.

Peskov je novinarima - nakon što je beloruski predsednik Aleksandar Lukašenko postigao sporazum sa Prigožinom da odustane od pobune - rekao da će Prigožin otići u Belorusiju. On je dodao da ne zna gde se trenutno nalazi šef "Vagnera".

Inače, naveo je Peskov, Lukašenko je sam predložio da razgovara sa Prigožinom jer se poznaju odavno.

Portparol Kremlja rekao je i da će oni "vagnerovci" koji su odbili da krenu ka Moskvi sa Prigožinom moći da potpišu ugovore sa Ministarstvom odbrane Ruske Federacije, kao i da država neće goniti "vagnerovce" zbog njihovih zasluga tokom Specijalne vojne operacije u Ukrajini.

Ono što se danas dešavalo neće uticati na Specijalnu vojnu operaciju, ona se nastavlja po planu, poručio je Peskov.

Kako su kadrovske promene u Ministarstvu odbrane bile jedan od zahteva Prigožina, Peskov je poručio da je to pitanje u nadležnosti predsednika Ruske Federacije i da o njima nije moglo da se razgovara tokom pregovora Lukašenko-Prigožin.

Peskov je takođe rekao da Putin ima puno poverenje u ministra odbrane Sergeja Šojgua.

I ja dodajem: Lukašenko dobija vlastitu "pretorijansku" gardu, i oslonac za režim, iskusne operativce u svemu, a vagnerovci domovinu/patriu/legalitet... Dobar posao za sve tri strane!

moguće U vrhu Ruske vojske: bye bye Gerasimov, welcome Surovikin i kompletno podmlađvanje novim, iskusnim, suvremenim kadrovima

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author

Nisam čuo još za to...

Jesam za Lukašenka. Ali ne da će vagnerovci i Prigožin tamo...

Imaš neki link za to?

Uglavnom zanimljivo.

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Jun 24, 2023Liked by Aleks

Link je na RT Balkans

Sve drugo je moja ekstrapolacija - business experience... dogovor i ugovori funkcioniraju ako svi imaju dovoljnu korist..

Prigožin novi posao i uhljebljenje

Rusi opstanak Vagenrovaca ali na dohvat ruke

Lukašenko "snage" na koje se može osloniti

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Hvala ti 👍

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Do androids dream of electric sheep i plaćenici postoje da operiraju izvan granica vlastite države!

Ako želiš živjeti, pristupi Min. Obrane Rusije, ili idi van...

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Reading all this I would guess a mix in the causes:

Prigoshin and a few others being in it for real and the secret services letting them go with an eye on it. So you don't have to plan and organize it as it would be in a real maskirovka and people doing the real thing are always more authentic. Like this you can still harvest most of the benefits as discussed for a big deception.

I also doubt that the damage to international reputation is so bad if it was solved so quickly as it seems now. Like this it is also a chance to build trust and proof that Putin is the good, resonable person who:

- stays calm and rational even if his authority and status is seriously under pressure

- invites and respects mediation from other statesmen

- accepts a deal to avoid bloodshed

All this of course doesn't satisfy the Russian hawks, but it builds trust abroad in Russia beeing a fair partner in the new multipolar order and proofs western horror stories about Putin wrong.

So my thesis is that good handling of this incident can add more to the reputation than happening at all damages it. This is also something a business man once told me from his experience building for high profile customers: It is not that bad if something goes wrong and needs fixing. If there is a problem and they see you solving it fast and competently this build more trust and relation than if everything goes just smooth.

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The more I think about, the more I belief that the most probable is a controlled escalation.

Imagine Putin knowing the growing unrest and unease among several persons and groups within Russia, Prigoshin being just one of them. He can't act against them as long as they didn't do anything real without confirming the western propaganda that he is a paranoid dictator.

A real maskirovka would be Putin openly telling Prigoshin: "You have to do me a favour and play the evil traitor so that i can crack down on the potential real traitors." This involves the danger that all comes out and is much more work in planning.

Isn't it much more efficient and has the more convincing effect, to provoke Prigoshin to act or even give him the feeling that he has silent backing of the FSB. Knowing Prigoshin, his character and his possibilities well, makes it easier to prepare and control the whole situation.

Everyone has to work with the tools he has and knows. Prigoshin has the Wagner forces someone else perhaps has good access to key positions in the media or politics. So others would be more likely to win over the public against Putin, moving a military force within the own country doesn't really win a lot of sympathies, not among the patriots and not among the western influenced.

This could be very different if some well connected security personell would team up with the oligarchs.

In this scenario Prigoshin is a traitor, but a useful one that served the bigger cause. This could be reason to reduce the punishment.

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There are a lot of seeming parallels with Benedict Arnold, from the American war of independence. He provided significant services to the continental army before he switched sides, and now, in the United States, his name is synonymous with “traitor.” He too, felt very unappreciated. And now, very few Americans know about the good things he did.

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Jun 24, 2023·edited Jun 24, 2023

On October 7, 1777, Benedict Arnold led a furious charge at The Battles of Saratoga which resulted in an American victory. Never receiving what Arnold believed to be proper recognition or payment, he eventually betrayed General George Washington and became an officer in the British Army. Very good analogy!

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This also looks like it might be an elaborate coup d'etat prevention test/exercise with many side benefits like people consolidation and 5th column purge etc. The way the whole thing unfolded is too much for even movie script.

Thanks for your analysis Alex, always appreciated.

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Jun 25, 2023·edited Jun 25, 2023

Well, another thing that was missing from my list of things that decide the dillema as "mutiny" was if everybody belived it was a mutiny. Basically, if the psychological side effects of maskirovka on your own people and troops were devastating, they would be simillar in effect as a dozen civilians on your side dying. So that would in general decide the dillema as "mutiny" and that's what seems to have happened.

Although...

Well, if it was a mutiny, then I think we don't need to dig deep to find reasons. Wagner is staffed with actual rapists and murderers. We know this because 70% of it is convicts. And if it was a mutiny, then it turns out giving rapists and murderers (heavy!) weapons was a bad idea. WHO KNEW? xD

Also, mercenearies were always notorious for changing allegiance in the most innapropriate moment. How many city states in medieval Italy got sacked because their armies got a better offer on the eve of battle?

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This was unnecessary drama that appears to have confused friends and enemies alike—except the Neocons, who feel vindicated in describing the Putin regime as fragile. The damage is yet to be seen, as the U.S. will hope, to capitalize on these events to court Russian fence-sitting allies.

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You do not let a traitor move in a dacha near uncle Sasha fiefdom. Imho it was a big auto-coup to root out the "doomer-gloomer".

The personal destiny of Prigozhin will tell if it was aware of being the catalyst of this op or not.

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I just read a lawyer's stack that says Prighozin released a video this morning saying he is not taking over anything but is overseeing the military group that had the friendly fire incident with Wagner to make sure it doesn't happen again.

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Between you, Aleks, and Andrei Martyanov ~ One can learn all there is worth knowing about the situation in Russia and Ukraine ~ Salute

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it's all a giant false flag, what if you helicopters were not shot down, what if it was just a way to get Wagner to Belgorod, what if...what if it was just a big hoax to find out things that now allow Russia to unmask all that is false patriotism within the MOD, those who are actually within Russia and are merely working for the west...what if Priggy is actually a hero just playing a role...did you see his face as the crowds cheered him...he didn't look like a crazed gone nuts...he had a most relaxed and peaceful smile...why pardon all the troops, why let him go to Belarus...what if that's where Putin wants him next...what if...at any rate to bad west no coup...the west will be boo hooing out the wazoo...HA! HA!

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And remember yesterdays wagnerites in Rostov sitting in caffes calmly and chatting...

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ya and it looked like it was like a hollywood scene when they all were leaving everyone cheering as if they were all part of the movie/game...who knows for sure only time will tell, but I do believe that Putin is a master whether one likes him or not he knows what he is doing and in that he also has a lot to keep under his control...crazy world we live in with all this propaganda...import to DYOR and not just follow the sheeple...

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If one takes as given that a nazified, militarized, colonized Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia, then Putin has never explained why Russia toys around with such a threat.

A mother cat does not fool around with a snake that is a threat to her litter. She kills the snake.

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True, although Ukraine is not the snake, it is the fangs. The head (brain) and body reside elsewhere.

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A defanged snake is no danger to anyone.

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SMO is less risky and less costly than a war? Softly, softly catchee monkey?

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Considering we just saw a coup attempt, that sounds like a retcon.

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Porque nadie habla de lo que dijo lukashenko sobre el acuerdo de estambul que arrendaria crimea y Donbass? Seria una altisima traicion

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Lists of possibilities are always the sign of the superior analysis and this essay is no exception. Plus it allows the reader to jump right to conclusions with some possibility of being accurate. E. Prigozhin has, according to Andrei Martyanov, a colourful backgroung involving criminal activities for his own advancement. That being the case I wonder at the the judgement of the MOD that it would accept the leadership role for Prigozhin to head the Wagner group. After all the possibility of such behavior should have given the Kremlin some pause in its choices. So to keep this simple it seems to me that his actions were about personal ambitions without the complicity of outside, foreign or even domestic support. What his tentative support seems to be his own position as CEO hence the move to Rostov to avoid the coming attack by the Russian army and that inevitable damage to a city. That may be the extent of his military abilities but also the expansion of his crimes. He is going no where and it is also of some question whether his own troops are really aware of an insurrection. As pointed out and is of some importance, his actions have been carefully measured to not give any advantages to the Ukrainians. I doubt he will march to Moscow.

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