NATO Summit and Further Geopolitical Events [i]

Discussion About the Risks of Escalation

Introduction

In the last several days, some interesting events happened that warrant discussion:

• The NATO Summit in Vilnius took place.

• The commander of the 58^th Russian Army has been dismissed.

• Two interesting escalatory steps have been announced by NATO.

• European Industry vs. European Military.

• Erdogan and Turkey.

I will summarize my thoughts on these items.

First Thoughts about the NATO Summit in Vilnius

The NATO summit in Vilnius has been very interesting. But before I enumerate my thoughts about it, first let me show you the following picture. Since it has already circulated for several days, most of you will have seen it:

Of course, the picture is edited slightly but I think, compared to the original it sums up perfectly the results of that meeting. The bucket and the mop of course were added. Now, let’s go through some of my thoughts about what we saw at the summit:

1. Ukraine is being cut off gradually from support.

2. Ukraine did not achieve any of the goals set by the West.

3. Ukraine is/has lost.

4. No one believes in both a victory in the war and the further existence of Ukraine.

5. Most importantly: The West has begun to distance itself from Ukraine in order to prepare for possible future negotiations with Russia/BRICS/The World.

6. The condom “Ukraine” will be used thoroughly until apparently November 2023 and then thrown away in the bin of history.

Keep these six points in mind, and view the picture above again. Let it sink in slowly. Take your time.

Internal Struggles in the Russian Army

Basics

As I have pointed out many times, we must NOT forget about the Russian casualties in this war. Russia is suffering heavy losses. In fact, unimaginable losses for a Western public. Let’s assume that Russia has lost 30,000 men in killed in the war. This would amount to approx. 60 dead per day on average since the beginning of the SMO.

The current defensive battle is most likely far deadlier for both sides. Especially in the South. More precisely in the Zaporizhia region, in the perimeter of responsibility of the 58^th Army of the Russian Federation. Today we can talk without a doubt about outright murder, committed by the West and its putsch regime in Kiev against the population of Ukraine.

If the 60 dead per day on the Russian side are heavy, what would you consider 700 dead per day (average) for Ukraine? It is the forced disposal of a people by the West and its putsch regime in Kiev. Murder. War crime. Crime against humanity.

Nevertheless, we still have the problem with the Russian losses. I think almost every Russian soldier is ready to give his life for the defense of Russia and the Russian people. And here is the problem: The SMO makes the Russian soldiers and almost all of the officers fight with both hands tied behind their backs. The reasons are maybe just. At least they are still just, that might change soon, I’ll explain:

Information Policy and Operations Security

A few of the goals of the SMO are:

• Achieving geopolitical changes.

• Ending the Western Hegemony.

• Securing Russia’s Western borders.

• Freeing Europe from American occupation. If that is not possible, then neutralizing Europe economically and geopolitically forever. This is necessary to avoid further threats from the European (EU!) countries toward Russia. No more “Operation Barbarossa”.

As I have explained numerous times, these goals are being achieved by the slow, grinding approach.

These are some of the goals. The big question now is how to transition from the reality that we have today to the envisioned reality of these goals. The intent of my “Economics and Empires” series is to explain this as clearly as possible; at least my view of how it might work out.

The problem is that the military part of this approach can’t be communicated to the soldiers and officers due to Operations Security (OpSec). I explain that here and here. I assume that the only soldier who is more or less informed about the circumstances would be Valery Gerasimov. Of course, Sergei Shoigu as well, but he is not a soldier.

Approximately sixty comrades on average die every day during the SMO. They die because Russia lets Ukraine do its thing without interruption. Remember, the power grid is still online, as are the bridges, logistics nodes, communications, internet, etc. All this could have been destroyed without a doubt within the first three months. The battle would have been totally different. I explained many times why it is better as it currently is but the average rank and file solider and the officers do not understand that. Maybe some officers do understand and assume it but they are not officially informed. Hence, there is some uncertainty. Why do I send my soldiers into death if there are other ways?

I have seen many instances of Russian soldiers, officers, and politicians who are politely expressing criticism without mentioning President Putin’s name.

From time to time, one might see such dissatisfaction of the soldiers and officers in a public way. It so happened that the commander of the 58^th Russian army, General Ivan Popov was seen recently. The 58^th Army is exactly the Army that is taking the biggest blow from the Ukrainian large-scale offensive in Zaporizhia. It is also the formation that is apparently suffering considerable casualties in defense, especially from long range artillery and missiles.

General Popov apparently complained for some time to the General Staff (Valery Gerasimov) and the defense ministry (Sergey Shoigu) about these problems. In his complaints, he demanded more and better counter-battery equipment to take out the enemy artillery. As a result, he was fired.

A discussion here of whether he was right wrong would be quite lengthy. Yes, I agree that the Russian counter-battery capabilities are most likely the biggest weakness of Russia so far. Not because of the lack of technology, but because of missing quantities of the best counter-battery radars. There are by far not enough radars, and of course they are the primary targets for NATO ISTAR operations. It is more or less the only way for the West to cause some pain to Russia, and it is having the desired effect.

If you know that you have these weaknesses and that the ministry of defense is doing what it can to solve the problem, it can become very frustrating to complain constantly without avail. And demoralizing for General Popov’s soldiers. The general may wish to fight the war without casualties, but reality is a harsh teacher (although General Popov’s goals ARE noble).

Now, let’s come back to the initial problem. From my point of view, we are in a critical phase of the war. The lack of information about the goals of the SMO (apart from those announced)—and HOW to attain them—becomes a great demotivator in a situation of high intensity, high casualty conventional combat. Both the soldiers and the officers want to know, in general, the plan to end this war (WIN!!), and the rough timeframe for success.

I personally think that the negative situation and demoralization in the Army can become better in about one or two months after the current iteration of the Ukrainian army has been destroyed. Until then, the situation could stay tense and we might observe further expressions of dissatisfaction from the highest levels of soldiers in-theater.

The reason why such information is not communicated is clear. You don’t want to let NATO know the real goals, or how the plan to achieve them might look. It is like Poker. Your opponent should not know your cards. Traditionally, Russians called this “Maskirovka”. It requires the highest level of OpSec and discipline of the army that you can imagine.

Thoughts about the Current Status of the War

Basics

The Ukrainians currently have no chance whatsoever to reach either the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, nor the Azov Sea, nor Crimea. Why not?

First of all, of course, because of the preparations that Russia made months ago for this defensive battle. All the fortifications and defensive lines. And especially the traps and minefields. I wrote extensively about those already.

Second, the 58^th Army is defending this perimeter. These are absolutely bad-ass and determined guys. It is one of Russia’s best formations. It was the 58^th Army that defeated Georgia back in 2008 within a few days. A whole country brought to heel by only one out of numerous armies of the Russian Armed Forces.

There have been many indications that the second phase of the Ukrainian assault would be a river crossing in Kherson. I did predict that in one of my articles (see here). Nevertheless, the Russians are doing the right thing and stretching the Ukrainians thin in many directions. In particular, the offensive by the 1th Guards Tank Army in Kharkov (Kupyansk direction) might be a shock for Ukraine. It could lead to the redirection of troops planned for the breaching or crossing operation in the South to the defense in the North. Russia is gaining hundreds of meters and on some days a few kilometers in this direction. Recently Russia took several villages, e.g., Novoselivske. Which of course is now sucking up hundreds or thousands of Ukrainian troops from the southern direction.

This might not stop President(?) Zelensky still ordering the breach and crossing operation in Kherson but with a far weaker fist. Which means for Russia a better position for destroying these troops everywhere with fewer losses. This is essentially what President Putin said a few weeks ago in the interview with several Russian war correspondents. It is a pity that Ukraine blow up the dam and now can’t cross the river. The troops could be destroyed far more easily. This is what now COULD still happen. It would be another major war crime by the putsch regime in Kiev against its own people.

In fact, this multi vector defense and offensive strategy by the Russians should lead to the military defeat of Ukraine by the end of August 2023, as described here. To bring in another perspective. Scott Ritter, whose opinion I value a lot, moved his prediction to November 2023. Also, very possible and coincident with President (?) Biden’s threat in the direction of President (?) Zelensky that the Western support will dry up if Ukraine does not reach Crimea by November 2023.

Cluster Ammunition

There is one thing I’d like to add. The emerging threat by the use of cluster ammunition. Since the West ran out of a steady stream of 155mm shells that would be needed to sustain Ukraine’s continuation of the war, the US decided to pivot to cluster ammunition. I think there is a reason why the US refrained for now from delivering these shells. Not because of moral or legal issues. No. The problem lies deeper. As many might know, Russia has the biggest stockpiles of cluster ammunitions worldwide.

Russia hasn’t used the stockpiles extensively until now. Occasionally, yes, but not systematically. But why has the US waited until now? Here are my thoughts on this:

1. By forcing Russia to do the same the US would enable Russia the moral access to another huge stockpile of further artillery shells. You know my opinion. Until recently, Russia has used more shells from its stock than it produces. Hence, it would at some point of time run out of shells. No, since Russia has ramped up its industrial production of shells, I believe that Russia has reached, or will soon reach, the point where its production exceeds its consumption.

   But we can’t ignore the fact that Russia DID already use up a large part of its former stockpiles. Nevertheless, this is not critical but part of its strategic contingency plans in case of war. To ramp up the production to the consumption level, while the stockpiles provide ready reserves for high-use situations.

2. The second thoughts are purely military in nature. Ukraine is running out or already ran out of vehicles with modern armor that could withstand modern cluster ammunition. In fact, Ukraine became or is currently in the process of becoming a lightly armored force since it has run out of most “modern” stuff. Both Soviet (modern?) and Western weapons (junk that the West wanted to get rid off for several reasons).

By enabling Russia to use its cluster stockpiles the following will be ensured. Since Ukraine transforms (degrades) itself to a light (ISIS like) militia currently, the usage of cluster shells against their positions or approaching forces will be devastating. Far more devastating than the normal 155mm shells. It will only ensure that the rest of its light/soft (infantry etc.) forces will be destroyed even faster than they already are. And they are currently being already destroyed on an epic scale.

If we go back to the beginning of this article and we check out the six points, emerging from the NATO summit, and then re-watch the picture of Zelensky… Well… Everyone can reach his own conclusions.

But here is a contrary consideration. Will Russia use these weapons extensively? Maybe in a very limited and measured way. I don’t know. Why?

As we all know, some of the submunitions tend to not explode initially and are serving then as mines. Kids like to take balls and throw them. These cluster charges look like balls. That’s why most victims of cluster ammunitions are civilians. And we mustn’t forget. Russia is fighting on RUSSIAN soil. In case Russia is going to use these weapons then it will be very systemic with the goal of cleaning up when hostilities end.

One last thought about cluster ammunition. It will indeed harm Russia. Make no mistake.

After the approaching defeat of the Ukrainian offensive, Russia will start its own offensive moves. It doesn’t matter whether they are large (big arrow) or a rolling up of a collapsing Ukrainian army. Which means that infantry will also be on the move. Especially sitting on tanks and IFVs. The usage of cluster ammunition will first increase Russian casualties until Russia adapts to appropriate tactics. In fact, it prepares the Russian army better for a conflict with NATO with the price of hundreds or thousands of lives.

Risks of the Continuation of the War in Ukraine

What I write here should not be needed to be written. But I will do it.

I concluded in my last analysis that Russia, at the end of August, will be in a position to checkmate Ukraine. This is not an instantaneous process, but the checkmate process could be initiated at the end of August, and hopefully conclude within a reasonable time.

I see three possible scenarios:

1. Encircling Kiev without taking it. Force capitulation and eliminating the most important resources for the continuation of the war by the Kiev Nazi putsch regime.

2. Cutting off Sumy-Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia.

3. Continue the current slow grinding approach for another year.

My thoughts:

1. I think it would be a logical and necessary conclusion of my strategic framework to put an end to the war this year. I’m referring to large-scale armored combat. Of course, the mopping up and denazification will take years and require further conflict, which will cost further casualties, etc.

   Nevertheless, the war needs to be concluded by the end of the year, which means destruction of the organized Ukrainian army. This is more than achievable. The question is whether that is the plan or whether some other geopolitical consideration would make Russia postpone this moment.

   What I want to say is the following. The war MUST NOT be continued for another year. That would be fatal. First, because of the suffering of the people. But FAR more important is the following: My assessment of the probability of the start of WW3 is 15%. And 15% is only because of the threat of incidents and non-official actors trying to push their own agenda.

   If this war continues for another year this would give all kinds of stakeholders/players more than enough time to increase their influence and pressure for unpredictable moves. Moreover, the probability of incidents would also in the same sequence skyrocket! If the war continues in the current manner next year, I would increase the probability of the start of WW3 by an unwanted incident or terrorist act up to 45%. Which is unbearable.

2. Considering the results of the NATO summit in Vilnius (please re-watch the Zelensky picture for the summarization of the results) there won’t be a continuation of the war into the next year. At least not in the current intensity. It will be more like rolling up a collapsing army and nation. Will there be a Kiev encirclement under these circumstances? Only the Russian General Staff knows.

Maybe it won’t be needed at all. This is also a possibility that I outlined in my last article. Remember? The Russians could wait if they have information that the collapse of Ukraine and/or its army is imminent. The NATO summit seems to have just increased the probability for this scenario manifold.

Guys, the danger is real. A continuation of the war in its current shape into the next year would be fatal for the world. That’s why I don’t believe it will extend, and that’s why my last article concluded with BMA’s logical strategic picture for the end of the war this year.

In this article, I outlined several indicators for the start of WW3:

• One of them was the covert or overt transition to war footing in the US or Europe.

• Another is the covert or overt mobilization of military personal within the US or Europe.

I previously pointed out many more indicators, but I want to say something about these two in particular:

1. I know personally that the military industry of the big European countries is running currently at its maximum peacetime capacity. Moreover, it is tasked with elaborating possibilities to expand its capacities on short notice if war or martial law or whatever is declared. Those steps would give the governments the power to direct industrial production.

   In fact, the European governments want to do it now, but private industry is refusing  investment into capacity expansion unless there are long-term, take-or-pay contracts to utilize these capacities after the war in Ukraine is concluded and/or the stockpile orders are filled.

   NATO just updated its “defense” doctrine against Russia. Which is essentially the same as in the cold war. In case of a crisis or war, SACEUR gets command over Europe as a whole. Its military, industry etc. Everything. What is SACEUR? The Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Nice fun fact, SACEUR is always an American general.

   In case of war/crisis NATO (US) takes over the European defense industry and dictates what to produce, how and with what.

   What I want to say is next year we will not only be closer to WW3, but the pressure on the private military industry will have increased manifold and there is a possibility that some kind of “light” war-footing like in Russia could be realized. I think the war should be concluded before we reach that point. 😊

2. The Americans announced on July 13^th that they will “mobilize” 3,000 troops and transfer them to Europe. First, check out this order by President (?) Biden.

   Source:

   Larry Johnson

   Of course, I simplified it by far, so for details, read the order yourself.

   I consider that a major escalation. You might want to say that we are talking only about 3,000 troops. What threat could they pose? Exactly. None. And that’s the problem. The figure is so awkwardly low that I consider this as a test. Exactly as at the beginning of the war. We won’t send tanks. We won’t send this and that. And now everything has been sent.

   Now the biggest escalation short of using nuclear weapons would be to send American/European/NATO/EU troops. Of course, these 3,000 soldiers won’t be sent into Ukraine. But considering the predictable escalation process so far, I’m not surprised by this move.

   It is a preparation of the public and a test of the public opinion and reaction. I think we should observe this very closely. What will be the public/Russian/European/American reaction, etc.? Will there be a mobilization of 30,000 people in the US in a few months? I don’t know. I only say we should keep an eye on that.

Now we come back to my conclusion. The war MUST NOT be continued into next year. The risks for escalations are too high for humanity. And judging by everything that I know (unfortunately, far too little) the large-scale armored hostilities should be concluded this year. There are NO geopolitical goals and objectives that would be worth risking WW3 (Nuclear war). The only reasons are outlined in the Russian nuclear doctrine, which I also explained in detail, and we are currently far away from that.

Please never forget that mopping up all the mess that has been made in Ukraine since its “independence” will take years. When the army is more or less destroyed and defeated as an organized force, there still can be insurgency nests and light armored resistance all across Ukraine. Even the multi-million-man Soviet army needed years to mop up the Bandera Nazi Shit after WW2 had been concluded. Denazification takes time.

Erdogan, Turkey and Sweden

Basics

I’d like to express some thoughts about the latest developments around Turkey.

I think that to understand the multi-vector approach of President Erdogan, we need to take a lot of contradicting circumstances and objectives into account. I’d say that analyzing Türkiye’s geopolitical objectives, and the way President Erdogan maneuvers his country through them, is one of the most complicated tasks.

One needs a lot of knowledge about the region and a lot of time to do that. I neither have the required knowledge, and definitely not the time. But I will certainly express some thoughts.

President Erdogan is both a very corrupt and a very patriotic president. In fact, with the knowledge I have about Türkiye (not too much) I blieve that he is the best possible choice for President, out of all the current politicians. He in fact is corrupt and steals so much money and wealth for his family members but to be honest, it is the same all over the world.

What is more important is that he is a patriot. Not only a Turkish patriot but also an Islamic patriot. I could go very deep into that but that would be too much for a single chapter. In short, Erdogan tries to keep his country in the best possible position for the emerging world order.

And now comes the problem. He tries to do that by expanding his influence back into the regions of the Ottoman empire. Erdogan, from his perspective of course, sees “Türkiye” as a fraud, forced upon the Turks by the West. He wants to have the Ottoman Empire back. And he REALLY wants that and is actually working on it. That is a huge contradiction to the reality on the ground.

Russia (Central Asia and Syria), Iran (same) and Saudi Arabia (Arab countries) claim all parts of the Ottoman Empire, except Türkiye itself, as well. And this is a reality for which Türkiye is, by far, too weak to overcome. The only reason why Türkiye or let’s say President Erdogan can do what it/he does is because they are in NATO. That gives him the opportunity to cross many red lines which otherwise would be his/Türkiye’s end in geopolitical terms.

Hence, NATO is the big brother on the sideline of the playground to which the child runs if it gets beaten in the sandbox. And that is the ONLY and SOLE purpose for President Erdogan to stay in NATO currently. NATO is absolutely a hostile party to President Erdogan. He would have left this organization right after the coup in 2016. But it is currently impossible, because the beforementioned neighbors would INSTANTLY show Türkiye its place on the map. Hence, Erdogan plays NATO for his Ottoman aspirations.

And NATO is furious about President Erdogan but it is what it is. The value of a non-superpower country is mostly defined by its geographical location. The only value that NATO sees in Türkiye is the control over the Bosporus. The bottom line is that both parties, NATO and Türkiye, are only tolerating each other. They do not like each other.

Russia can’t do much about Türkiye’s behavior in the ex-Soviet space currently. Türkiye has, again because of its geographical position, huge advantages for Russia in the emerging world order. Remember the heartland trade? Moreover, Türkiye is economically to some degree dependent on Russia. And the prospects of a huge increase in trade and finance through BRICS and SCO is by an order of magnitude more attractive than with the declining West.

Interests

Last, but not least, because of all these geopolitical objectives and contradictory interests, President Erdogan pays President Putin a “fee” for the screw up that he does with his Ottoman project. He has to stay in NATO and influence events as subtly as possible in Russia’s favor. Nothing, that would be obvious. That would most likely lead to a crisis and massive sanctions against Türkiye, which is currently not favorable for Türkiye. No, I personally assume that there is an information exchange between Russian and Turkish services with regards to NATO topics and MOST IMPORTANTLY, there is Article 5.

I would eat my shoes if Türkiye would join any Article 5 actions against Russia apart from moral and materiel support. The point is not that NATO would need to do without Turkish troops, which are numerous. No. The point would be the split within NATO which would lead to a major crisis at the time when Article 5 would be invoked. We mustn’t forget about Hungary. I would eat even more shoes if Hungary would join an Article 5 war against Russia apart from moral and materiel support.

The list of such NATO countries will grow. But to explain that would take too much space in this article.

I will put it bluntly. Türkiye and Russia are not friends. They could be friends if Türkiye would accept that it is Türkiye, and not the Ottoman empire, but that isn’t possible currently. They work together in fields where it benefits them and in other fields they “make problems” for each other. Moreover, Russia currently has to endure these problems. The benefit of having Türkiye on its side for the geopolitical liberation of the world is higher than the occasional backstabbing from Türkiye.

That will change dramatically after the end of NATO and the establishment of the multipolar world order. The leverage that Türkiye will have then will be ZERO. There will definitely be no more backstabbing. But for now, this is exactly what Russia must always calculate. And Russia must have contingency plans for every joint project, which President Erdogan could sacrifice to NATO to avoid falling to such a low level of trust that the Americans might actually decide to apply devastating economic sanctions against Türkiye. There is a threshold that President Erdogan mustn’t fall below.

The Price for Backstabbing

To put it into an equation: 5 backstabs against NATO = 1 backstab against Russia.

What does that mean? It is of course totally made up, but it should illustrate and summarize this chapter. Türkiye is an active participant in the creation of the emerging world order. It has problems with itself (Erdogan) because it tries to position itself in this emerging world order as an empire. Hence, to make sure that it can work on that empire plan without fear of military reactions from other stakeholders, it needs to stay in NATO and avoid sanctions which would be unfavorable during the time of transition. On the other hand, its financial and economical future lies in the hand of Russia and China. It must play well with these two players. Hence, Türkiye is backstabbing its “forced” friend NATO five times until it reaches a limit. Then it backstabs Russia on the altar of any given international event to make things right with NATO again.

Türkiye has real economic problems. Especially and additionally after the earthquake. If the reports are true, that President (?) Biden bought the Azov commanders and Sweden’s (not done yet) NATO accession with an IMF loan of $11 billion, then I understand what he did. I will discuss Sweden and Azov in a minute.

Sweden

There is nothing Türkiye can do to avoid the accession of Sweden into NATO for too long. Yes, they can drag it out as long as possible. That is a favor to Russia to swallow other events in the ex-Soviet sphere. In the best-case scenario, NATO will have disintegrated before the accession. But I don’t think so. Hence, Türkiye has been doing a good job and still is doing a good job on this. President Erdogan hasn’t approved anything yet.

But to make it clear, it is not a big problem. It is even better. Russia can now plan properly in case of war to go THROUGH Finland and Sweden and not to plan operations around them. I do not talk about any kind of land invasion. I talk about missiles, jets, bombers, drones, interceptors etc.

In case of war, the Baltics will fall within hours which means there is not such a situation like a NATO “lake” in the Baltics.

These idiots have lived free and safe until now. After an accession to NATO the independence (well… they weren’t really independent before) and security will be gone. In case of war, Finland and Sweden are no longer places where I’d like to be, to put it mildly.

NATO missiles, troops, or nuclear weapons in Finland or Sweden? Well, I will put it this way. There is a reason why there are no NATO missiles and nuclear weapons in the three Baltic chihuahuas. In one of my articles, I described that Russia has real red lines. Not the public ones, which bloggers and reporters define for themselves. But real ones. Put missiles or nuclear weapons in a country that is close enough to Russia and we ALL can sing “Bella Ciao”. I mean ALL OF US.

So, relax. The organization NATO won’t be around anyhow within a few years at the most. Why stress yourself then? Not needed. Remember, the war in Ukraine will end with the end of Russia (and all life on the planet except cockroaches) or with the end of NATO (organization!).

Azov

I was happy when I read the news that Türkiye released the commanders of Azov. They were safe in Türkiye. They couldn’t be killed there. Now they are back to the place where Nazis are being killed on an industrial scale. Welcome back my friends. 😊

Further Developments

It is important to understand that there is far more to consider. But I will stop here. We will see more details in Economics and Empires 5 and 6.

Nevertheless, I want to leave you with a few considerations:

If the Ukrainian war is existential for the US hegemony, why is there even a theoretical chance that the US could abandon Ukraine, for example after November 2023. At least gradually.

One of the reasons I have pointed out in detail numerous times. The people in charge of the US don’t want the world, and thereby their power, to end. (Forget the bunker fairytales).

The other consideration is the following. The domestic problems in the West in general, and in the US in particular, are accumulating. Maybe the Americans should dial down their foreign adventures gradually, and instead focus on what potentially could come domestically. I’m being entirely honest with you… I did not expect such scenarios within the next 4-5 years. But things seem to accelerate recently. Note: These are only thoughts, without tangible evidence.

[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)