You guys give to much credit for an export-led, deflactionist country like Germany.
It has been the consumption sinkhole of the world economy since the Aughts. It's demise - better, the demise of his mercantilist economic model will be a godsend to the world economy.
Sadly, it happened thanks NS demise and not € demise, but that's history.
Perhaps the collapse of energy-intensive industry in Europe will make the next winter less deadly, but I doubt it.
Those floating gas terminals sound like juicy targets in any potential conflict.
Speaking of pollution, it appears a large part of the Depeleted Uranium shells the UK has supplied to the Ukraine has been destroyed in Khmelnisky, leading to a 50% increase in gamma radiation in the area, from 95 nSv/h to 150 nSv/h.
Depleted Uranium is a very weak gamma emitter, IIRC 95% of its energy emissions are alpha particles, which are normally harmless when released outside the body, as they can be blocked by clothing and skin. However, when they are released inside the body, say, after inhalation of DU dust or consumption of contaminated foodstuffs, the effects can be truly devastating. Not to mention the toxicity of Uranium as a heavy metal.
How unfortunate for the Banderite regime that the DU shells that were meant to contaminate New Russia aka Eastern Ukraine were instead destroyed in Western Ukraine. Perhaps they will console themselves with the fact that a portion of the dust has spread to Poland, as Poles are another group that Bandera has targeted for genocide.
Very informative, and I enjoyed the piece. Well done. Couple of points/questions:
How much of the annual 102 Gcfm produced by USA is from fracking? I've read that there are limited reserves for fracking, and that the reserves will be depleted over the next few years. Will this mean another nail in the coffin of US hegemony? Can you comment on this?
Also, (slightly off the 'natural gas' topic), just how bad can it get in Europe? Will we soon be at the pitchforks in the streets and lamppost lynching stage in the near future?
The industrialized world is running close to the limits of fuels and energy in general now. Reconfiguring will to the downside, to less spending on optional items and activities, as costs of necessities rise.
Will some buy luxuries while others starve and freeze nearby? How will that play out politically. Energy pipelines are critical choke-points for resource wars, and critical assets to have. The Syrian war, instigated by US interests, was supposedly because Syria would not allow construction of a natural gas pipeline to Turkey and on to Europe, which favored US allies.
Not yet really addressed is that resource-exporting countries have been prevented from developing local industry, both through financial/economic manipulation and through acts of war and coercion.
Those of us who are accustomed to having enough in industrialized countries may not be well-protected by the elites who actually make decisions on our behalf...
Hello Piquet! Great article, and well written. I can confirm that RWE Neurath and Neideraussem (north of Kőln) are coming back on line. They've requested servicing of our equipment on their boilers.
I think the only hope for the EU is to forego their "green dreams." The near-term economic outlook looks bleak, with their prospects for peace maybe worse. Sad to see, but they've brought these conditions unto themselves.
On "natural" gas - I heard somewhere that yes gas is "cleaner" than oil so long as only 1% escapes in its journey from ground to burning. But at 3% it is no better and it can be worse. (I'm not sure what the measure of "clean" was, total Green House effect I guess as CH4 is I presume far worse than CO2.
Can anyone confirm this.
And does that imply that Fracked gas (which in US at least is the common source of LNG) is not so Green as claimed?
Germany (or all Europe). I take the view that China overtook US in the Global Polarity / Popularity stakes some 5 to 8 years ago and we are not observing a US potentially declining but a spiteful and knowing loser. MAGA with emphasis on the Again was a 2016 admission.
So the past 5 years have largely been about the US attempting to stop the rest of the world trading with China. With no influence on Russia, that meant cutting off Europe from Russia as a first step and sticking a great chasm at the end of the OBOR (Ukraine tick, Iran failed).
The US has achieved its goals in Europe, Germany businessmen post NS2 no longer have the international credibility that they spent 70 post war years regaining. But US has failed almost everywhere else (Pakistan and one or two other places are seeing the battle right now).
How effective was this in bringing down the price of NatGas? How effective will it be in allowing EU countries to fill up their storages ahead of the 2023 winter?
Also I heard the Russia had floated a "OPEC for NatGas" a while ago. Has there been any progress on this? Would that shift the power over to the suppliers as it does with Oil?
German is shackled by "Green / Climate Change" politics that commanded by amerikkka (aka Zionist world order), in fact it kills itself by turning off Coal and Nuclear power generation facility. Coal electric generation with its latest technology is very clean already (in term of minimal pollution). "Climate change" is piece of crap aka pseudo science, as you look at 8000 years ago the temperature average was 2-3 deg C higher , with much less human and zero industry,,,, so maybe there is local heat island such in city vs rural, but human activity never change "climate" nor co2... it is solely depend on SUN (and its CICLYC) output which nothing to do with human nor CO2.... in fact Netherland uses CO2 to make its greenhouse greener and plants bigger. Once German out of clutch of amerikkka demands, it will free itself to make prosperous again.
One of the points you made was how Russia was able to pivot to new clients. My understanding that this is true on volume basis, for sure.
Do you have any insight as to the revenue side of the new business? How is the pricing comparable to previous deals with Germany or other EU countries? I can’t find any reliable info on this.
Thanks Piquet for your article, informative and enjoyable. In the first part there are some omissions as hydro as source for power, with mini and micro turbines you do not need those large water reservoirs. And there is also solar thermic energy and geothermal vast reserves.
The USA gas reserves are unclear on purpose. My guess is that they are smaller than advertised.
A future topic, that could be very interesting, is transportation costs in Europe, instead of focusing in household warming. With a bit of correlation/comparission with rest of the world data
European natural gas under 30 euros per MWh, a first since June 2021
European natural gas continued to fall and hit a new low for nearly two years on Thursday, as the market remained well supplied, with comfortable storage levels in Europe and rising temperatures dampening demand.
Around 2:00 p.m. GMT (4:00 p.m. in Brussels), the Dutch TTF futures contract, considered the European benchmark, was trading at 29.90 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), shortly after reaching 29.85 euros per MWh, a higher price. seen since June 2021.
I didn’t see you mention the fact that the energy to cool transport and reheat the gas causes 50% energy loss so pipeline gas will always give a huge advantage to any country using it. Lng will remain expensive and double the depletion rate-of the exporting county on their reserves
I just received my yearly invoice for natgaz + elec (benelux).To my big surprise, I was expecting the worse, I did not get any increase in gaz(even was refunded) and a very light increase in elec(1.5 euro/month).I pay 6.34 eur/monthly for natgaz and 13.51 for elec.Which means a decrease from before SMO even before covid. My take is govt are hidding real costs to customers for electoral reasons, but increasing national debt to gdp iso.But problem 'joe six pack' does not realize that at all. Flights are overbooked for this coming summer vacations as never seen before.Inflation decreased to 3.3%(anyway it does not matter as salaries, social benefits, pensions are automatically increased by exact nr of inflation,we are lucky in BELUX but it is an exception in the EU and in the World).Not expecting any less warmongering from EU leaders in the coming years as there is in fact little to zero bad consequences.
You guys give to much credit for an export-led, deflactionist country like Germany.
It has been the consumption sinkhole of the world economy since the Aughts. It's demise - better, the demise of his mercantilist economic model will be a godsend to the world economy.
Sadly, it happened thanks NS demise and not € demise, but that's history.
Europe has registered 68000 excess deaths last winter, attributed to the energy crisis.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/05/10/expensive-energy-may-have-killed-more-europeans-than-covid-19-last-winter
Perhaps the collapse of energy-intensive industry in Europe will make the next winter less deadly, but I doubt it.
Those floating gas terminals sound like juicy targets in any potential conflict.
Speaking of pollution, it appears a large part of the Depeleted Uranium shells the UK has supplied to the Ukraine has been destroyed in Khmelnisky, leading to a 50% increase in gamma radiation in the area, from 95 nSv/h to 150 nSv/h.
Source: EU monitoring data https://remap.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Advanced.aspx
Depleted Uranium is a very weak gamma emitter, IIRC 95% of its energy emissions are alpha particles, which are normally harmless when released outside the body, as they can be blocked by clothing and skin. However, when they are released inside the body, say, after inhalation of DU dust or consumption of contaminated foodstuffs, the effects can be truly devastating. Not to mention the toxicity of Uranium as a heavy metal.
How unfortunate for the Banderite regime that the DU shells that were meant to contaminate New Russia aka Eastern Ukraine were instead destroyed in Western Ukraine. Perhaps they will console themselves with the fact that a portion of the dust has spread to Poland, as Poles are another group that Bandera has targeted for genocide.
Very good article, Piquet.
Very informative, and I enjoyed the piece. Well done. Couple of points/questions:
How much of the annual 102 Gcfm produced by USA is from fracking? I've read that there are limited reserves for fracking, and that the reserves will be depleted over the next few years. Will this mean another nail in the coffin of US hegemony? Can you comment on this?
Also, (slightly off the 'natural gas' topic), just how bad can it get in Europe? Will we soon be at the pitchforks in the streets and lamppost lynching stage in the near future?
You are too much focused on Germany which is only 20% of the EU economy.
80% does not care much about LNG or Russian pipelines and is happy to see German decline, especially the Eastern Europeans.
Thank You, Piquet.
The industrialized world is running close to the limits of fuels and energy in general now. Reconfiguring will to the downside, to less spending on optional items and activities, as costs of necessities rise.
Will some buy luxuries while others starve and freeze nearby? How will that play out politically. Energy pipelines are critical choke-points for resource wars, and critical assets to have. The Syrian war, instigated by US interests, was supposedly because Syria would not allow construction of a natural gas pipeline to Turkey and on to Europe, which favored US allies.
Not yet really addressed is that resource-exporting countries have been prevented from developing local industry, both through financial/economic manipulation and through acts of war and coercion.
Those of us who are accustomed to having enough in industrialized countries may not be well-protected by the elites who actually make decisions on our behalf...
Hello Piquet! Great article, and well written. I can confirm that RWE Neurath and Neideraussem (north of Kőln) are coming back on line. They've requested servicing of our equipment on their boilers.
I think the only hope for the EU is to forego their "green dreams." The near-term economic outlook looks bleak, with their prospects for peace maybe worse. Sad to see, but they've brought these conditions unto themselves.
Excellent piece - thanks. I learnt lots.
On "natural" gas - I heard somewhere that yes gas is "cleaner" than oil so long as only 1% escapes in its journey from ground to burning. But at 3% it is no better and it can be worse. (I'm not sure what the measure of "clean" was, total Green House effect I guess as CH4 is I presume far worse than CO2.
Can anyone confirm this.
And does that imply that Fracked gas (which in US at least is the common source of LNG) is not so Green as claimed?
Germany (or all Europe). I take the view that China overtook US in the Global Polarity / Popularity stakes some 5 to 8 years ago and we are not observing a US potentially declining but a spiteful and knowing loser. MAGA with emphasis on the Again was a 2016 admission.
So the past 5 years have largely been about the US attempting to stop the rest of the world trading with China. With no influence on Russia, that meant cutting off Europe from Russia as a first step and sticking a great chasm at the end of the OBOR (Ukraine tick, Iran failed).
The US has achieved its goals in Europe, Germany businessmen post NS2 no longer have the international credibility that they spent 70 post war years regaining. But US has failed almost everywhere else (Pakistan and one or two other places are seeing the battle right now).
Not sure if Piquet is reading the comments, but I wanted to ask about the EC/EU initiative called AggregateEU which pools gas bids from EU countries to match them to suppliers (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_2782).
How effective was this in bringing down the price of NatGas? How effective will it be in allowing EU countries to fill up their storages ahead of the 2023 winter?
Also I heard the Russia had floated a "OPEC for NatGas" a while ago. Has there been any progress on this? Would that shift the power over to the suppliers as it does with Oil?
German is shackled by "Green / Climate Change" politics that commanded by amerikkka (aka Zionist world order), in fact it kills itself by turning off Coal and Nuclear power generation facility. Coal electric generation with its latest technology is very clean already (in term of minimal pollution). "Climate change" is piece of crap aka pseudo science, as you look at 8000 years ago the temperature average was 2-3 deg C higher , with much less human and zero industry,,,, so maybe there is local heat island such in city vs rural, but human activity never change "climate" nor co2... it is solely depend on SUN (and its CICLYC) output which nothing to do with human nor CO2.... in fact Netherland uses CO2 to make its greenhouse greener and plants bigger. Once German out of clutch of amerikkka demands, it will free itself to make prosperous again.
Good article, Piquet, thank you.
One of the points you made was how Russia was able to pivot to new clients. My understanding that this is true on volume basis, for sure.
Do you have any insight as to the revenue side of the new business? How is the pricing comparable to previous deals with Germany or other EU countries? I can’t find any reliable info on this.
Look forward to your next piece.
Peter
Thanks Piquet for your article, informative and enjoyable. In the first part there are some omissions as hydro as source for power, with mini and micro turbines you do not need those large water reservoirs. And there is also solar thermic energy and geothermal vast reserves.
The USA gas reserves are unclear on purpose. My guess is that they are smaller than advertised.
A future topic, that could be very interesting, is transportation costs in Europe, instead of focusing in household warming. With a bit of correlation/comparission with rest of the world data
European natural gas under 30 euros per MWh, a first since June 2021
European natural gas continued to fall and hit a new low for nearly two years on Thursday, as the market remained well supplied, with comfortable storage levels in Europe and rising temperatures dampening demand.
Around 2:00 p.m. GMT (4:00 p.m. in Brussels), the Dutch TTF futures contract, considered the European benchmark, was trading at 29.90 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), shortly after reaching 29.85 euros per MWh, a higher price. seen since June 2021.
https://www.rtbf.be/article/le-gaz-naturel-europeen-sous-30-euros-le-mwh-une-premiere-depuis-juin-2021-11199589
My question is: is the EU manipulating (rigging the pricing, or if not, how can that be possible after all the dooms we heard frome some 'experts')?
I didn’t see you mention the fact that the energy to cool transport and reheat the gas causes 50% energy loss so pipeline gas will always give a huge advantage to any country using it. Lng will remain expensive and double the depletion rate-of the exporting county on their reserves
Is This gpovanman? I've missed your The van says.........
I just received my yearly invoice for natgaz + elec (benelux).To my big surprise, I was expecting the worse, I did not get any increase in gaz(even was refunded) and a very light increase in elec(1.5 euro/month).I pay 6.34 eur/monthly for natgaz and 13.51 for elec.Which means a decrease from before SMO even before covid. My take is govt are hidding real costs to customers for electoral reasons, but increasing national debt to gdp iso.But problem 'joe six pack' does not realize that at all. Flights are overbooked for this coming summer vacations as never seen before.Inflation decreased to 3.3%(anyway it does not matter as salaries, social benefits, pensions are automatically increased by exact nr of inflation,we are lucky in BELUX but it is an exception in the EU and in the World).Not expecting any less warmongering from EU leaders in the coming years as there is in fact little to zero bad consequences.