Nuclear War Ahead? [i]

Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Russia’s (non) Responses

Introduction

Recently, much talk has been about escalating tensions between NATO and Russia. Moreover, there is fear about the West crossing red lines and a potential Russian counterstrike with tactical nukes. But are these threats real? And how likely are they?

These are questions I’m going to discuss today. Moreover, I want to comment on the current operational situation on the battlefield.

“Ukraine’s” Deep Strikes

First, I’d like to talk about the alleged Ukrainian strikes with Western weapons “deep” into Russian core territory. This topic has been a thorn in my eye for a long time, and now I will try to clarify several things.

There are no Ukrainian strikes deep in the Russian territory/rear. None. This does not happen. Maybe at the beginning of the war, there were some occasions when we saw some Ukrainian strikes in the Russian rear with old Soviet Weapons and drones. But now, there are none.

Still, there are strikes in the Russian rear and on Russian territory. So, how is that possible?

Most, if not all, of the strikes on the Russian territory are being conducted with Western weapons. And not only some easy-to-handle stuff but ever more sophisticated equipment. But what is so sophisticated?

• The equipment itself is difficult to handle. A lot of training and experience is necessary, especially under non-ideal combat conditions.

• The equipment is difficult to maintain. If you have issues with it in the field, only experienced service workers can fix it under combat conditions.

• These weapons depend on sophisticated targeting data that no one in Ukraine can collect, analyze, and program into the weapons. Ukraine is incapable of these activities now, and they will not be able to develop those skills in the future. Not because the Ukrainians are incapable of understanding it but because it would take a long time to train them and above all, it is classified information. The West is never going to share such knowledge with Ukrainians because of the fear that the information will leak into Russian hands.

• The collected raw data must be processed by Western assets into target data that can be used by the Western weapons in Ukraine. Not only can Ukraine not process the raw data, Ukraine cannot collect the data.

The only step that is likely being done by Ukrainians themselves is to fly a plane to the release point and push a preprogrammed button to release a Storm Shadow or SCALP or whatever missile onto a pre-defined target with a pre-defined attack route.

So, Ukraine is not “doing this or that” in Russian territory at any time. Some of the Ukrainians truly would love to do that. But… they can’t 😊

I’m sure there are some exceptions. Maybe some Ukrainian saboteurs deep in the Russian rear are releasing drones near the targets to minimize the large flight distances. But even in this case, we have a similar situation with the Ukrainian kamikaze pilots. None of the data, target IDs, weapons choice, or equipment used for the strike is Ukrainian. The Ukrainians move to a pre-defined spot, set up the equipment, and push a pre-programmed button to release a drone.

The bottom line is that Ukraine is not attacking deep into Russia. It is entirely, directly, and solely NATO. NATO personnel collect and process the targeting data, transfer it into the weapons, and handle and release the weapons. Some Ukrainians might be involved here, but if any, only a few, and they are hand-picked for secrecy. Ukrainians are not trustworthy since they are Russians. They are the enemy of the West. (And the West is finishing them off successfully, unfortunately).

What do we have now? NATO is debating publicly whether they are going to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia or not… which Ukraine is not able to do anyway… Haha, 😊 Nice story for public consumption.

It is the slow public communication and preparation that the West is now moving into the next phase, which is directly attacking Russian operational assets and perhaps even strategic assets deep in Russia. If NATO allows Ukraine to strike deep into Russia, the Ukrainians could try to pick up some stones and try to throw them as far into Russia as possible. Hence, several yards.

So, the West is attacking Russia directly from Ukrainian territory? Yes, it is, already for quite some time. It is war, after all. Everyone who is shocked should stop fantasizing and realize that Russia is fighting for its statehood, and the West is fighting for the Western empire. The loser is going to lose itself. Hence, Russia would disintegrate (and finish off the world in the process), and the Western empire would end.

So, yes, there is a lot of damage to each other, directly and indirectly. Overtly and covertly. And there are very few red lines. And I can assure you, we are very far away from any real red lines. The real red lines will not be crossed at any time.

I watched President Putin’s speech at the Gazprom headquarters in St. Petersburg, and it is clear that he is relaxed. There are many more escalatory steps necessary to change anything in Russia’s posture. So, I'm confident that everything is fine for the world in general.

I want to add something to the topic of the strikes in Russia. We are going to witness a lot more damage to the Russian rear. I have explained that in my previous articles. The constraints in logistics, equipment, ammunition, and trained personnel, mixed with the large Russian territory, make it virtually impossible to defend the rear.

Russia would need to place air defenses and EW equipment everywhere and pre-position ammunition for it simply everywhere over a huge territory, at least in Western Russia, which is still an incredible land mass. That is not even remotely possible. Russia will not be able to protect even 5% of the possible Western targets in Western Russia. It rightfully is protecting the most critical installations and infrastructure, and the rest most likely can and will be hit as long as Ukraine “exists.” (Not much longer…).

So, whatever the West does, it won’t target anything so critical that it would cause a massive retaliation, such as Russian nuclear power plants or storage of nuclear weapons and so on. And Russia is going to absorb it. Rightfully so. Remember the “chemical weapons” attacks by Assad on “his own people” or on “moderate democratically head-chopping rebels” in Damascus? Several days before he would have finished them off anyway? Sure. Of course.

Russia, attacking NATO countries with tactical nukes or even conventionally months before finishing off Ukraine from the face of the earth forever, would be like “Putin dropping chlorine on poor Azov Nazis in Chasov Yar.”

Again! The West will NOT cross any REAL red lines communicated between Sergei Naryshkin (SVR) and William Burnes (CIA) in Ankara in 2022. And Russia will NOT attack any NATO bases on NATO territory. Will Russia do nothing? No, of course not. But I will discuss this in another chapter.

F16s

Now, let’s talk about the F16s. I have written a lot about them already, but since everyone is in a panic, I will review the topic again. 😊

1. Ukrainians are not able to fly the F16s. Almost all the capable pilots are dead. They can send young, mobilized people for training without any experience, but this would take a long time, and the really smart people who actually would be capable of learning and adapting are not eager to volunteer. These would be flying coffins. And you can’t forcefully train people abroad. You can possibly do it in the open-air concentration camp called Ukraine. But not abroad. And teaching to fly F16s in Ukraine is also not possible for obvious reasons.

2. F16s are divas. Fully woke. They need nice, well-cleaned runways and a massage before and after each flight (/irony). You don’t have such conditions in Ukraine. The possible runways are known and regularly bombed and destroyed by the Russians. Moreover, the Russians are prioritizing Western equipment for destruction. As soon as new Western equipment appears on the battlefield, every Russian is hunting to gain a nice trophy. An Abrams, a Leopard, an F16, etc. The life expectancy for an F16 in Ukraine will be measured in minutes or hours if it is stationed in Ukraine.

3. So, the following applies: These planes won’t be able to be based in Ukraine. It is physically impossible. They will be based in Romania and/or Poland, and they will be flown by Western pilots. In other words, this will be a limited NATO air campaign against Russia from NATO territory. Limited, because here we have real red lines. These F16s approaching the Black Sea Fleet directly from Romania, or flying to Belarus or Kaliningrad (or further Northern territories) from Poland over the Baltics would be a REAL red line.

   Conducting air raids in squadron force with full SEAD tactics into Russia would also be suspicious for the “Ukrainians are flying from Romania” narrative and would be a red line. (Even though we should keep these tactics in mind for potential further escalations, which are already in the planning for the time before the final collapse of Ukraine.)

4. Russia will do nothing as long as the raids are the usual SCALP/Storm Shadow raids at the usual release points within central and east Ukraine, coming from Poland and Romania. They must follow the usual routes and conduct the strikes in the usual numbers as before. Then, nothing will happen. Remember the gas attacks in Damascus? Screw that.

5. What about the range? I have serious doubts that the range of these F16s is sufficient for round-trip strikes from Romanian/Polish territory. In theory, the F16 has sufficient range to reach reasonable release points within Ukraine and fly back to base in Poland or Romania. However, NATO will probably try to pack it with cruise missiles, reducing the range significantly. Nevertheless, I don’t want to exclude that it is possible for the F16, depending on the version, that the range is sufficient. I imagine they could stop in one of the pre-prepared airfields in Ukraine for refueling, either before the strike or after. Probably after, not to give the Russians additional time to prepare for the attack.

6. But what about the runways and the divas? I think both the Russians and NATO have been practicing for months for this scheme. The Russians are practicing destroying such runways with mass missile and drone attacks, and the Ukrainians, together with Western engineers, are practicing restoring the runways within hours or days. Both Russia and NATO successfully did so. In other words, the following bullshit game could start soon:

   A) Ukraine pretends that an airfield will be prepared for F16s usage.

   B)  Russia notices it and orders the pre-emptive destruction.

   C)  The real preparations in Romania/Poland start.

   D)  The second the engineering teams in Ukraine signal that the runways will be ready for use within 2-3 hours, the planes take off in Romania/Poland and fly to the release points.

   E)  The planes release their payload.

   F)  They land on the just-repaired runways for refueling.

   G)  They attempt to leave the place before the next Russian missile and drone wave arrives.

7. This is a possible scheme. However, it is also possible that many of these birds and perhaps pilots will not survive the sightseeing trip into Ukraine.

Under strictly defined circumstances, I’m sure that Russia will not respond overtly against F16 flights from NATO territory. I’m also very confident, but not 100% certain, that NATO will strictly avoid crossing the red lines I defined above.

No overt responses are needed! Think about the chemical weapons attacks of Assad shortly before he won a particular battle… 😊

Starting World War III just months before the final victory only because of a piece of (critical) infrastructure that can be rebuilt very quickly would be such an idiotic response.

Possible Russian overreactions

Let’s pretend for a second that Russia would react to a real crossing of a red line by NATO. What could that look like?

I’m convinced that it would involve a coordinated large-scale drone, missile, and eventually tactical nuclear weapons attack on all important and critical NATO installations in Central and East Europe. A decapitation of NATO’s operational capabilities in East and Central Europe. This could include strikes on political decision-making centers in these countries, including the country’s political leadership. And it would involve the UK as well.

After such an attack, I assume Russia would wait and see whether the Americans react strategically (nuclear counter-strike) for the sake of unimportant Europeans. Remember, Europeans are now economically “used condoms” for the Americans. I doubt that the Americans would react strategically.

Nevertheless, since tens of thousands of Americans in Europe would be vaporized within minutes of such strikes, the question is what the American response would be. Tactical counterstrikes? Probably. This would lead to a full-blown escalation, which would end strategically with the end of all lives on the planet, which is acceptable to Russia.

Would the Americans swallow it and retreat (in fact, there would be not much left to retreat or withdraw…) from Europe? I have a hard time believing it, but it is possible.

All of this is science fiction! I don’t believe for a second that we will see an overt Russian strike on NATO territory. But there will be a lot of covert surprises all over the world.

Russia’s (non) Responses

So, is it okay that Russia doesn’t (overtly) respond to anything?

No, it is not. There is a resource that can’t be rebuilt quickly: People. Russia is losing people on an epic scale. This is a full-blown Western victory, which I’ve repeatedly pointed out on the blog. Credit where credit is due. And yes, all the dead or stolen (Ukrainian refugees in Europe, which the Europeans are very keen to incorporate forever) “Ukrainians” are also Russians and essentially the main target of the West.

Ukraine is entirely on the ropes now. Just short of being finished off. And the final blow will come soon, possibly before winter. But we should never underestimate the Western ability to commit genocide. No one is better than the West in conducting genocide. And that’s what they are doing with the forceful and Western-orchestrated mobilization in Ukraine, an already defeated country. It is a full-blown war crime and genocide.

So, again, Russia should not respond to such severe attacks and blows against it? Of course, Russia should respond only not in a way that would cause World War III.

And Russia has been responding covertly almost since the beginning of the war. I will name the three main visible retaliatory measures taken by Russia. They are not the only ones; far more severe ones are already in the making. We will see them popping up very soon.

1. The cleansing of Africa of Western colonialism. This is a Russian and Chinese operation. And it is going very well. We have only seen the beginning. It is in full swing, and many surprises are still to come.

2. Israel. I described it in detail in several articles. So, I’ll summarize it here.

   Is Israel the boss of America, or is America the boss of Israel?

   Neither entity is the boss. Above both, the same Oligarchs are ruling. Israel essentially IS America, and America essentially IS Israel. Israel is NOT the closest ally of America and vice versa; they are the same entity.

   If you want to hurt the Western empire with the most impact, you need to force it to protect itself in the most unfavorable place.

   I have described the Iranian, Chinese, and Russian operations to defeat Israel and make it a law-abiding, normal country that implements the two-state solution. This is currently being done strategically in many steps/phases. At the end of this process, Israel will be strategically and militarily defeated with a subsequent regime change to a government that will comply with the surrender conditions under international law.

   To be precise, I do not favor this approach since it requires the sacrifice of tens of thousands of children. I’m sure this could have been done without sacrificing that many children, but here we are. Moreover, I want to point out that Israel will not solely be defeated on the battlefield but also, and maybe even more so, economically.

   This has just begun, and it will play out in many acts, like an opera.

   Regime change in Israel, conversion of the country into a normal (Jewish) country among the many Arab countries in the region, and the subsequent peace in the Middle East would be a disaster for the West. Peace and friendship between nations is the worst nightmare for the West.

3. The third and last covert Russian response is, of course, the proliferation of a lot of nice and highly sophisticated weaponry to many enemies of the Americans and British worldwide. I believe this operation started some time ago but is only now being discussed publicly because the first such attacks are about to start. We could see sunken Western ships in all places, and we could see a lot of Western military bases worldwide burning in the future. Out of nowhere…

   FAFO.

If you think Russia is taking one blow after another without doing anything to retaliate, you are wrong. The Wars of Liberation have only just started, and we can expect many more blows against the West worldwide.

Who knows? Maybe the final act will be conducted somewhere in East Asia? We will see.

Kharkov

Russia opened another front in Kharkov (I wrote about that recently). Still, Russia seems to be stuck in Volchansk and Liptsy. But is that really the case?

I’ll try to explain, but first, let’s discuss another topic.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in this direction. Ukraine managed to scramble about 30,000 soldiers to defend these regions. These soldiers were withdrawn from other very important theaters. The point is that they did not only position them in the region for defense; they brought them there to conduct a counteroffensive to drive the Russians back over the border. Back to Russia, not knowing that they are already standing IN Russia.

Another lunacy, like the Zaporozhia “counteroffensive” (mass suicide)?

No.

I hate to say it, but if you ignore for a moment the fact that Ukraine is already defeated and that every day that the war is extended by the Western authorities constitutes an outright war crime, this counteroffensive is the only right thing that Ukraine can and should do.

Don’t get me wrong. There is no prospect of success. Russia set up these operations to tease the Ukrainians into a big counteroffensive to finish them off in bulk. Imagine being a Ukrainian running into a wall of artillery, rockets, missiles, drones, and glide bombs. This is an operation to finish off tens of thousands of Ukrainians in a very short period of time.

But why was this the right thing for Ukraine to do? Because not doing it would mean the collapse of the North, which would jeopardize the whole Donbas front and risk the Ukrainian formations in northern Donbas being cut off. So, every commander would be obliged to throw everything that is expendable to eliminate the new theater.

These 30,000 guys will slow the Russian advances in the north for another month or two. It’s the same as in Artemovsk. A meatgrinder.

The point is… It is in vain. Why? See the next chapter.

Sumy

About a year ago, in a previous article, I declared the Kharkov and Sumy areas as the fourth theater of war. What is happening in Volchansk is going to happen in Sumy as well. Perhaps with a far larger force because it will also be used as the eastern flank for the pincer around Kyiv for the final act of Ukraine(he fifth theater). Taking Kiev into a pincer from the East and the West until surrender.

So, yes. A few units (Chechen special forces) are already in the Sumy region. But they are only there for reconnaissance, probing, and creating a bridgehead. The main reason is to check the possible Ukrainian reaction and capabilities in Sumy, which are… nonexistent. I wonder whether Ukraine could scramble another 30,000 guys to “slow down” a Russian advance in Sumy like in Volchansk?

Maybe, maybe not. And what to do when the final incursion (west of Kyiv), takes place to create the new Kyiv pincer? Die, Bandera!

Sumy is the penultimate act before the end. And you read it first on BMA in January 2023! 😊 (Even though I missed the timeline back then because of the incredibly inhuman Western genocide against the Ukrainian people).

Europe

There is one spot I missed mentioning above where I was talking about the covert Russian responses to Western aggression: Europe.

And there is a reason. Indeed, Russia is acting in Europe to try to improve its position, even acts of sabotage. But what Russia is doing in Europe pales in comparison to what the EU and the US are doing to Europe. American oligarchs are priming Europe for (economic) destruction. We saw a small version of that with Nord Stream.

The final act will be the figurative explosion of Europe by American oligarchs and the Europeans themselves. I have previously written in detail about that, but I will give an overview here.

Europe is gearing up for war with Russia. I know this since I have insights. And there are plans to mobilize people for military service soon. It is hard to predict any good outcomes for the European economy with the implementation of this mobilization. The point is… Russia is not going to take the bait. It will defeat Ukraine and dig in at the new border. Russia will patiently watch as the internal European frictions initiate the self-destruction of NATO and the EU

For many reasons, I see a war coming in Europe. Not a World War. The Europeans are going to manage all of this themselves. In the future, I will explain this in more detail.

You know my estimation about a World War. It is very low, around 10%. Which, of course, is still far too high. We need to come back to 0,1% or something like that!!!

I believe the probability of a European war is above 50%. And I think it will become evident by 2026 and could start by 2028.

And I hate that fact. I love Europe! (The single European states). I live in Europe! So yes, all the people who left Germany before maybe 1936 were some lucky… Those who didn’t… well, the rest is history.

---

[i] Edited by Piquet (PiquetEdit@gmail.com)