Thanks for the great analysis. Regarding the F-16's, if they're flown from a NATO country, I see things a little differently.
Regardless of whose pilots are flying, an F-16 from a NATO country attacking Russia is a casus belli, an overt act of war by that NATO country. Russia will respond, it has to. But here there are nuances. If the F-16 from Romania or Poland attacks Russian forces that are on 'Ukrainian' soil, it would still be an overt act of war, but the circumstances are such that Russia might stay its hand. (Though it might not too.) However if those F-16's attack pre-2022 Russian soil, then I believe Russia will have to respond in kind to the NATO nations that launched the strikes.
Backing up that view are the statements from high Russian officials: if those F-16's engage in combat in Ukraine, then Russia will target them no matter where they are, be that in Ukrainian airspace or on the ground somewhere in Europe. Moreover that is a completely legitimate and legal response. It's really no different than if a missile was launched from Romania/Poland against Russian territory, or Russian forces in Ukraine for that matter. It crosses a red line that Mr. Putin set from the very first days of the SMO.
I think you're misjudging the situation. Russia has made a strategic choice to avoid escalating the conflict. It knows it can defeat Ukraine, so why take steps that only increase the support Ukraine gets, or even risks bringing NATO into the conflict? As long as the fight remains between Ukraine and Russia, Russia will leave it there. But if any attack against Russia is launched from a NATO country, that's a different story altogether.
Russia has red lines, despite what you might think. But it's not so foolish as to issue them over mere tactical matters.
NATO is going to join in as soon as Ukraine starts seriously running low on warm live bodies.
Russia should have treated Ukraine the way it responded to Georgia's attack in 2008 -short, sharp and fast enough that NATO could not get involved even if it wanted to.
Instead, this "just the tip" style of warfare has caused the West to have invested so much material and moral support into the regime in Kiev that they cannot be seen to back down now.
Your view is one way to look at but here’s another: Georgia in 2008 was a very different conflict to the one in Ukraine. Georgia went off half-cocked, probably at NATO instigation, without having NATO assistance. Plus the territories in question are tiny, perhaps only 100th the size of Ukraine. That made a quick surgical intervention by Russia an easy choice.
Ukraine on the other hand is huge, with a size able population, and it’s been heavily armed, fortified and trained by NATO. That’s a very different adversary and geopolitical matter compared to Georgia in 2008.
There’s no one size fits all tactic or strategy in war. You have to make a plan based on all the realities, not on past successes in very different campaigns.
Georgia certainly was egged on by NATO. The fear in the summer of 2008 was that Obama would be elected and peace might break out at any moment.
Of course, Russia only had eight years to prepare for this war, when it should have been obvious that Minsk-2 was as much a sham as was the original Minsk.
I take it you think Russia wasn't preparing because the war hasn't gone as fast as you'd like. I take a more long-term view.
In 2014 Russia had other fish to fry besides Ukraine. That was the year Russia entered the conflict in Syria on the side of the beleaguered Syrian government. That required military resources. Then there was the Minsk agreements, which Russia quite reasonably thought were worth a try. Then in 2016 there was a change of US administration to one that, again quite reasonably, Russia thought it might be able to work with. That possibility ended in January 2021 and then a year later Russia was at war.
That decision on Russia's part brought on colossal, WWIII-level sanctions by the Collective West, which self-evidently the Russian Federation had indeed been preparing for. So again, while those preparations may not be what you would've done, I can see the logic in how Russia has approached this situation.
It is obvious that europe will go to war with Russia, once they run out of Ukrainians. The West has lost all fear of Russia, as a result of Russian indecision and dithering.
Yes, NATO are the ones attacking Russia. Not Ukraine. Yes, NATO knows exactly what they are doing and they will keep doing it, since Russia fears escalation.
No, this war won't be popular in europe. Nobody will ask europeans, just as nobody asks battery hens whether they want to be turned into McNuggets.
This will end one of two ways - Russian capitulation or a nuclear attack. This is because, short of a nuclear attack, Russia has no way of doing anything to the West that the sociopaths who rule the west care about.
And why so sentimental about europe? It's just europe. This sentimentality is what got Russia into this mess in the first place.
"It is obvious that europe will go to war with Russia, once they run out of Ukrainians. The West has lost all fear of Russia, as a result of Russian indecision and dithering. "
On Israel, I agree it is hard to see Russia/China complicit in the deaths of the Gazan children. How can I excuse them? I guess that Hamas was going to do what Hamas was going to do, and so will Hezbollah. If Russia/China are assisting the ME Resistance (including Iran, Syria and Yemen) to win rather than provoking them to fight unnecessarily I guess that counts as good.
In anycase the slaughter by the Israelis of much of Gaza is probably inevitable under all possible outcomes.
Where I don't agree is in Israel having a peaceful future as a minor minority in ME. I think it is finished.
"because of the incredibly inhuman Western genocide against the Ukrainian people"
Indeed - quite shameful. On the one hand it is good that many here in UK see the inhuman genocide in Gaza. On the other the complete lack of understanding of Ukraine is appalling.
All doomers need to read this and understand. But they won't as it will cause a meltdown of their psyche as the walls of their false beliefs tumble down. Much like the Covid cultists and clot shot heroes.
Brandon Smith (of Alt-Market) said it best - the most succinctly and to the point: "I highly doubt the establishment wants to trigger a global nuclear war. They have everything to lose and very little to gain. They just spent the better part of the last century building up one of the most intricate economic and political control grids in the history of humanity. I don’t think they would be happy to see it all vaporized in the blink of an eye".
They can first strike Russia now with little risk (see Postol video above) at any moment then move on to or ask China to surrender or strike them as well if they refuse to capitulate. India is no problem (still owned by City of London like HKG). Brics will end in a few days.
That's a great "Big Picture" analysis. I liked how you wrote that the US is Israel and vice versa. It's the Anglo-Zionist Empire of Lies and Hate
Europe was conditioned to fear and hate the Soviet Union and Russia by German, British, American and other European Nazis. Looking back there was really nothing to fear from the Soviets. They were not going to invade Western Europe. Neither is Russia today or any time in the future.
This article is so loaded with cope, it's hard to know where to start. First of all, the end of the war in Ukraine, such as it is, is not months away, it's years away. Secondly, whatever was agreed upon between Naryshkin and Burns is only conditional, and temporary at that. Burns only represents one faction of the US foreign policy establishment, and he can't control what other factions do. So an escalation is much more likely than is stated here. Thirdly, saying that Israel will be destroyed economically and forced into a two-state solution is just the usual drivel by someone who clearly knows nothing about how that state and its economy are designed. Frankly, the author should know better and not engage in these types of fantasies.
Yes, but I'd say Israel is vulnerable for a whole host of reasons beside their wholesale slaughter of Palestinian civilians. But their economy is not one of their vulnerabilities, they set it up specifically as a mini autarky. Israel may stop being a Jewish state at some point, or stop existing altogether, but there will never be a two state solution.
I appreciate your answer, but respectfully disagree,
would you care to elaborate?
Israel is already supported by US economically, and the relative part that aid to Israel represents in overall US budget will never be too large. Israel has enormous influence in US politics, Senate, media, and will never be abandoned by US.
The real question is place of Israel in US public heart and mind.
Deep state had to murder Rabin, and invest significant effort to produce Netanyahu’s policies.
Having Big Israel where 7 million Israelis rule over 7 million Palestinians is not a good long term strategy. It will be recognized as apartheid by UN, BRICS, and by increasing part of Arab and Moslem world.
Expelling 2 millions is doable, but will end in ICC verdict, or disappearance of ICC.
Gaza war is about economic and political connections between Israel and US & UK influenced Arab states.
These connections cannot proceed as long as there is war in Gaza.
Israhell is just an US UK(owned by City of London) aircraft carrier to ctrl the MEA area and the energy. Shale in the US is not forever after 2028 it will start to decrease rapidly, though total ctrl of Gulf oil states is mandatory for the US and defeating Russia to steal everything once again.
The way that NATO's proxy war in the Ukraine has developed is that it is very close to being existential for both sides (US/NATO & Russia -- Ukrainians don't count). Neither side wants to back down, especially Russia. That means if either side believes it is losing, the risk of that side firing off its thermonuclear weaponry is non-zero.
Very few citizens in the US consider Zelensky as being worth their own nuclear annihilation -- but the rulers of the US don't care what the citizens think. It is hard to see the US ruling clique agreeing to Rump Ukraine vowing never to join NATO, because that would be the end of NATO. If NATO could not save the Ukraine, what is it going to do for Sweden or Lithuania? US/NATO might be content with a Korean War type outcome -- the bullets stop flying, but there is no real peace. However, Russia would probably not agree to that.
Best outcome would probably be a UN mandate for the Chinese military to occupy de-militarized neutral Rump Ukraine to ensure both US/NATO and Russia stay out. But the most likely outcome is stumbling into at least a Europe-wide war, if not a global thermonuclear war. If only the rulers of the US and Europe could see the risks they are running!
unfortunately I very much agree and things are evolving freightently fast (we are already some time into open talk about war economy and conscription in EU). I do not even know what one could do in order to secure himself and the closest ones
but what about Mossad? what about CIA? what about Mxx? What about NSA?
Intelligence I think it's more important in the last decades than Governments. Who is the counterpart of CIA in EU? Nobody, that's why EU is so weak, prone and corrupted. Who did intercepted Merkel's phone calls and messages? Who is still doing that and blackmail them? Who organized the rigged vote of Brexit with Cambridge Analitica at al? Did they stop doing that? Absolutely not, it's even easier now than before.
I'm european, but European Leaders and politicians are just a bunch of prostitutes as media journalist are.
The World has a problem and that problem is USA. Dot.
Brexit was only about a World War, 99 % still believe it was about immigration and the economy. Of course brits oligarchs love migrants as they can then decrease salaries of britons. Economy? Not at all as the UK was not in the Euro.
Nato insider: WWIII but limited to EU + UK + CH, starting +- August 15th // (US CAN)Labour Day period.
This is the real reason you can see Sunak and Macron (betweek others) collapsing their govt going to elections not to be accused for the coming destruction. Expect Orban to be killed (or missed like Fico)? Vucic knows everything like all insiders.
The date is just after the Olympics and Euro football, in vacations period for many, cities almost empty, people on the beach, overseas, in the mountain etc...
Russia will wipe out Poland as a starter: russian tv
With respect to Vučić - no most European countries are not yet in the desperate state required to be herded into a continental war. And also no not before the US election, unless Biden expires which is admittedly an eventuality whose time cannot be predicted. But certainly leaders like Macron can sense that their chances are only going to get worse with each cycle of escalation going forward, so they're gambling in locking in a majority before the sh#t starts.
Macron will have no majority in the first round, meaning elimination except if some kind of false flash happen a new Crocus or Bataclan, Charlie etc...count on CIA to save Macron.
Re Macron majority - I certainly hope not. I don't claim to understand the the French election system (is it first-past-the-post by district, but with a runoff cycle??)... it sure seems designed to avoid a vote-proportional result.
Perhaps Vučič is prepering for his freedom war...Kosovo or Bosnia. It is boiling already and probrably just a question of time. Aleks is from Bosnia and he may have a good perspective on the words of Vučič. I doubt Vučič knows something more than Orban, Xi or any other true national leader.
do not want to focus on Vucic, but basically all leading politicians are (half)criminals, everywhere.
but I would not dismiss him (I am not Serbian),
first, he has several inteligence services with strong tradition (UDBA and KOS were among the strongest in Europe), he gets info as from the East and from the West and currently maybe the most important and worrying for me, given his recent dark prognosis, is that he just had an opportunity to speak "on 4 eyes only" with Xi
Regarding messengers. Naryshkin is a man carrying a real message, from a real decision center. Vucic is more like a canary in the mine, he has a lot of information, but most important is that in his position, as a leader of Serbia, on the ewe of Third World War, he feels the threat, intuitively, almost instinctively.
I hope sincerely, in the name of Serbian neighbors, that the war goes over our heads this time, but, reason as well as history tell us a different story.
Thank You, Aleks. I am less sanguine about "red lines" not being crossed.
It seems to me that the financial structure of the $US and "Eurodollars" and "petrodollars" is leaning over the cliff and must go over it. The Petrodollar agreement with the Saudis has expired, and was not fully being followed, anymore. The "Unit" seems likely to be fully operational on New Years Day 2025, to be officially announced in September.
There is probably a line of countries preparing to default on $US debts and throw their entire economies into the BRICS camp.
European countries, from the citizenry level, appear to be rebelling against the impositions made upon them by the masters. It is not really a secret that the masters are manipulating the people into wars and picking-losers amongst them. It is known by those who are intelligently paying attention.
I am very concerned about a false-flag setting off something very big, just ahead of a resumption of the 2008 financial crisis.
I'm sorry, October in Kazan. I was off a month. They have said all along that it should be operational in 2025. I think they are being conservative and will make a strong showing on New Year's Day.
Petro dollar supposed agreement with the Saudis is fake news...Saudis were in the 'piss conference' today in Luzern. They could even leave brics soon.
Hungary, Serbia and Turkey signed the Luzern 'peace deal', these countries were supposed to be 'Russian friends'...if Putin does not wake up he will lose the war and be the responsible for the end of the country, WWIII is coming soon.Russia must strike first otherwise it is over:
Devastating Escalations Between Russia and NATO - Ukraine is Being Decimated | MIT Prof. Ted Postol.
Ukraine is far from being defeated. They are holding the line, at least. Their losses do not matter as they are accepting them. Ukrainian society understands that this is an existential war, Russian society understands this to a much lesser extent. This is why Ukraine is able to mobilize so many people, even forcibly and Russia wont mobilize as Russians would not like it.
The west is still able to print money and finance the war. They feel no pain.
This is why Russia in fact failed until now. Putin is very rational and logical, but he does not understand that he is dealing with psychopaths. The psychopaths understand only fear. And they are not afraid of Russia any more.
"Israel will be strategically and militarily defeated with a subsequent regime change to a government that will comply with the surrender conditions under international law."
To whom is Israel supposed to surrender to? Palestine? A country that no longer exists? The Palestinian people? The Palestinian people are all dead, or will be. I hear Sampson, getting a trim before the last dance starts.
Israel is supposed to surrender? International order? You must be joking. Surrender to the "Rules based order? Whose rules and whose order?
Thanks for the great analysis. Regarding the F-16's, if they're flown from a NATO country, I see things a little differently.
Regardless of whose pilots are flying, an F-16 from a NATO country attacking Russia is a casus belli, an overt act of war by that NATO country. Russia will respond, it has to. But here there are nuances. If the F-16 from Romania or Poland attacks Russian forces that are on 'Ukrainian' soil, it would still be an overt act of war, but the circumstances are such that Russia might stay its hand. (Though it might not too.) However if those F-16's attack pre-2022 Russian soil, then I believe Russia will have to respond in kind to the NATO nations that launched the strikes.
Backing up that view are the statements from high Russian officials: if those F-16's engage in combat in Ukraine, then Russia will target them no matter where they are, be that in Ukrainian airspace or on the ground somewhere in Europe. Moreover that is a completely legitimate and legal response. It's really no different than if a missile was launched from Romania/Poland against Russian territory, or Russian forces in Ukraine for that matter. It crosses a red line that Mr. Putin set from the very first days of the SMO.
Don't kid yourself. Russia has shown time and again that it is loathe to escalate.
This only encourages western escalation, taking steps that would have been unthinkable a little while ago.
I think you're misjudging the situation. Russia has made a strategic choice to avoid escalating the conflict. It knows it can defeat Ukraine, so why take steps that only increase the support Ukraine gets, or even risks bringing NATO into the conflict? As long as the fight remains between Ukraine and Russia, Russia will leave it there. But if any attack against Russia is launched from a NATO country, that's a different story altogether.
Russia has red lines, despite what you might think. But it's not so foolish as to issue them over mere tactical matters.
NATO is going to join in as soon as Ukraine starts seriously running low on warm live bodies.
Russia should have treated Ukraine the way it responded to Georgia's attack in 2008 -short, sharp and fast enough that NATO could not get involved even if it wanted to.
Instead, this "just the tip" style of warfare has caused the West to have invested so much material and moral support into the regime in Kiev that they cannot be seen to back down now.
You may know NATO’s plans but I don’t.
Your view is one way to look at but here’s another: Georgia in 2008 was a very different conflict to the one in Ukraine. Georgia went off half-cocked, probably at NATO instigation, without having NATO assistance. Plus the territories in question are tiny, perhaps only 100th the size of Ukraine. That made a quick surgical intervention by Russia an easy choice.
Ukraine on the other hand is huge, with a size able population, and it’s been heavily armed, fortified and trained by NATO. That’s a very different adversary and geopolitical matter compared to Georgia in 2008.
There’s no one size fits all tactic or strategy in war. You have to make a plan based on all the realities, not on past successes in very different campaigns.
Georgia certainly was egged on by NATO. The fear in the summer of 2008 was that Obama would be elected and peace might break out at any moment.
Of course, Russia only had eight years to prepare for this war, when it should have been obvious that Minsk-2 was as much a sham as was the original Minsk.
I take it you think Russia wasn't preparing because the war hasn't gone as fast as you'd like. I take a more long-term view.
In 2014 Russia had other fish to fry besides Ukraine. That was the year Russia entered the conflict in Syria on the side of the beleaguered Syrian government. That required military resources. Then there was the Minsk agreements, which Russia quite reasonably thought were worth a try. Then in 2016 there was a change of US administration to one that, again quite reasonably, Russia thought it might be able to work with. That possibility ended in January 2021 and then a year later Russia was at war.
That decision on Russia's part brought on colossal, WWIII-level sanctions by the Collective West, which self-evidently the Russian Federation had indeed been preparing for. So again, while those preparations may not be what you would've done, I can see the logic in how Russia has approached this situation.
There are daily attacks on Russia mainland and zero real retaliation, this since more than 14 months.
The more expensive shots with only headlines as results the better for disarming USistan.
USistan is about where Hitler was with V-1 and V-2.
It is obvious that europe will go to war with Russia, once they run out of Ukrainians. The West has lost all fear of Russia, as a result of Russian indecision and dithering.
Yes, NATO are the ones attacking Russia. Not Ukraine. Yes, NATO knows exactly what they are doing and they will keep doing it, since Russia fears escalation.
No, this war won't be popular in europe. Nobody will ask europeans, just as nobody asks battery hens whether they want to be turned into McNuggets.
This will end one of two ways - Russian capitulation or a nuclear attack. This is because, short of a nuclear attack, Russia has no way of doing anything to the West that the sociopaths who rule the west care about.
And why so sentimental about europe? It's just europe. This sentimentality is what got Russia into this mess in the first place.
"It is obvious that europe will go to war with Russia, once they run out of Ukrainians. The West has lost all fear of Russia, as a result of Russian indecision and dithering. "
this is very good said.
Covert responses 1, 2 & 3
Yes these are important points.
On Israel, I agree it is hard to see Russia/China complicit in the deaths of the Gazan children. How can I excuse them? I guess that Hamas was going to do what Hamas was going to do, and so will Hezbollah. If Russia/China are assisting the ME Resistance (including Iran, Syria and Yemen) to win rather than provoking them to fight unnecessarily I guess that counts as good.
In anycase the slaughter by the Israelis of much of Gaza is probably inevitable under all possible outcomes.
Where I don't agree is in Israel having a peaceful future as a minor minority in ME. I think it is finished.
"because of the incredibly inhuman Western genocide against the Ukrainian people"
Indeed - quite shameful. On the one hand it is good that many here in UK see the inhuman genocide in Gaza. On the other the complete lack of understanding of Ukraine is appalling.
All doomers need to read this and understand. But they won't as it will cause a meltdown of their psyche as the walls of their false beliefs tumble down. Much like the Covid cultists and clot shot heroes.
Brandon Smith (of Alt-Market) said it best - the most succinctly and to the point: "I highly doubt the establishment wants to trigger a global nuclear war. They have everything to lose and very little to gain. They just spent the better part of the last century building up one of the most intricate economic and political control grids in the history of humanity. I don’t think they would be happy to see it all vaporized in the blink of an eye".
They would without hesitation annihilate us all before they lost their perches.
They would surely lose their perches if they annihilate us!
What makes you so sure?
Because FF, annihilation affects everyone and everything, of course! Including perches.
Ever seen "Don't Look Up!"? For that matter, they'd destroy it all just to keep anyone else from getting power.
That is what a psychopath would do. Not these sociopaths.
They can first strike Russia now with little risk (see Postol video above) at any moment then move on to or ask China to surrender or strike them as well if they refuse to capitulate. India is no problem (still owned by City of London like HKG). Brics will end in a few days.
Who is this "they"?
Thank you Aleks👍🏼
You are going to make me having nightmares this night Sir... wish to read part two asap.
Please...
That's a great "Big Picture" analysis. I liked how you wrote that the US is Israel and vice versa. It's the Anglo-Zionist Empire of Lies and Hate
Europe was conditioned to fear and hate the Soviet Union and Russia by German, British, American and other European Nazis. Looking back there was really nothing to fear from the Soviets. They were not going to invade Western Europe. Neither is Russia today or any time in the future.
This article is so loaded with cope, it's hard to know where to start. First of all, the end of the war in Ukraine, such as it is, is not months away, it's years away. Secondly, whatever was agreed upon between Naryshkin and Burns is only conditional, and temporary at that. Burns only represents one faction of the US foreign policy establishment, and he can't control what other factions do. So an escalation is much more likely than is stated here. Thirdly, saying that Israel will be destroyed economically and forced into a two-state solution is just the usual drivel by someone who clearly knows nothing about how that state and its economy are designed. Frankly, the author should know better and not engage in these types of fantasies.
Royo,
different from 1914 war
Russo Ukrainian war is asymmetric
there are no Turks
Turkey joined NATO to supply soldiers
now Turqiye is out
difficult to fight war without soldiers
whatever US sends to Ukraine
still no soldiers
no factions in US, Burns is just a man carrying messages
no war by mistake ever happened
no nuclear war by mistake too
Israel gets more vulnerable with each Palestinian killed
Yes or No?
Yes, but I'd say Israel is vulnerable for a whole host of reasons beside their wholesale slaughter of Palestinian civilians. But their economy is not one of their vulnerabilities, they set it up specifically as a mini autarky. Israel may stop being a Jewish state at some point, or stop existing altogether, but there will never be a two state solution.
Unless China is defeated there will be a two state solution
I appreciate your answer, but respectfully disagree,
would you care to elaborate?
Israel is already supported by US economically, and the relative part that aid to Israel represents in overall US budget will never be too large. Israel has enormous influence in US politics, Senate, media, and will never be abandoned by US.
The real question is place of Israel in US public heart and mind.
Deep state had to murder Rabin, and invest significant effort to produce Netanyahu’s policies.
Having Big Israel where 7 million Israelis rule over 7 million Palestinians is not a good long term strategy. It will be recognized as apartheid by UN, BRICS, and by increasing part of Arab and Moslem world.
Expelling 2 millions is doable, but will end in ICC verdict, or disappearance of ICC.
Gaza war is about economic and political connections between Israel and US & UK influenced Arab states.
These connections cannot proceed as long as there is war in Gaza.
Two state solution is a Chinese solution
Israhell is just an US UK(owned by City of London) aircraft carrier to ctrl the MEA area and the energy. Shale in the US is not forever after 2028 it will start to decrease rapidly, though total ctrl of Gulf oil states is mandatory for the US and defeating Russia to steal everything once again.
Ah, the oracle has spoken. We bow down to your superior knowledge.
So how about some facts next time instead of verbal diarrhea.
The way that NATO's proxy war in the Ukraine has developed is that it is very close to being existential for both sides (US/NATO & Russia -- Ukrainians don't count). Neither side wants to back down, especially Russia. That means if either side believes it is losing, the risk of that side firing off its thermonuclear weaponry is non-zero.
Very few citizens in the US consider Zelensky as being worth their own nuclear annihilation -- but the rulers of the US don't care what the citizens think. It is hard to see the US ruling clique agreeing to Rump Ukraine vowing never to join NATO, because that would be the end of NATO. If NATO could not save the Ukraine, what is it going to do for Sweden or Lithuania? US/NATO might be content with a Korean War type outcome -- the bullets stop flying, but there is no real peace. However, Russia would probably not agree to that.
Best outcome would probably be a UN mandate for the Chinese military to occupy de-militarized neutral Rump Ukraine to ensure both US/NATO and Russia stay out. But the most likely outcome is stumbling into at least a Europe-wide war, if not a global thermonuclear war. If only the rulers of the US and Europe could see the risks they are running!
unfortunately I very much agree and things are evolving freightently fast (we are already some time into open talk about war economy and conscription in EU). I do not even know what one could do in order to secure himself and the closest ones
Very interesting points, but...
but what about Mossad? what about CIA? what about Mxx? What about NSA?
Intelligence I think it's more important in the last decades than Governments. Who is the counterpart of CIA in EU? Nobody, that's why EU is so weak, prone and corrupted. Who did intercepted Merkel's phone calls and messages? Who is still doing that and blackmail them? Who organized the rigged vote of Brexit with Cambridge Analitica at al? Did they stop doing that? Absolutely not, it's even easier now than before.
I'm european, but European Leaders and politicians are just a bunch of prostitutes as media journalist are.
The World has a problem and that problem is USA. Dot.
Brexit was only about a World War, 99 % still believe it was about immigration and the economy. Of course brits oligarchs love migrants as they can then decrease salaries of britons. Economy? Not at all as the UK was not in the Euro.
Nato insider: WWIII but limited to EU + UK + CH, starting +- August 15th // (US CAN)Labour Day period.
This is the real reason you can see Sunak and Macron (betweek others) collapsing their govt going to elections not to be accused for the coming destruction. Expect Orban to be killed (or missed like Fico)? Vucic knows everything like all insiders.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/president-of-serbia-we-will-have-world-war-within-3-to-4-months
The date is just after the Olympics and Euro football, in vacations period for many, cities almost empty, people on the beach, overseas, in the mountain etc...
Russia will wipe out Poland as a starter: russian tv
English, Russian and French subts
https://odysee.com/@sarah.markus:f/2024_06_12_Specialiste_militaire_Russe_explique_situation_point_de_vue_Russe:5
With respect to Vučić - no most European countries are not yet in the desperate state required to be herded into a continental war. And also no not before the US election, unless Biden expires which is admittedly an eventuality whose time cannot be predicted. But certainly leaders like Macron can sense that their chances are only going to get worse with each cycle of escalation going forward, so they're gambling in locking in a majority before the sh#t starts.
Macron will have no majority in the first round, meaning elimination except if some kind of false flash happen a new Crocus or Bataclan, Charlie etc...count on CIA to save Macron.
Re Macron majority - I certainly hope not. I don't claim to understand the the French election system (is it first-past-the-post by district, but with a runoff cycle??)... it sure seems designed to avoid a vote-proportional result.
or, maybe he counts on imposing marshall law...?
Perhaps Vučič is prepering for his freedom war...Kosovo or Bosnia. It is boiling already and probrably just a question of time. Aleks is from Bosnia and he may have a good perspective on the words of Vučič. I doubt Vučič knows something more than Orban, Xi or any other true national leader.
who is the "Nato insider" from the very start of this message of yours?
" Expect Orban to be killed (or missed like Fico)? Vucic knows everything like all insiders."
Vucic is just a criminal. He knows nothing.
do not want to focus on Vucic, but basically all leading politicians are (half)criminals, everywhere.
but I would not dismiss him (I am not Serbian),
first, he has several inteligence services with strong tradition (UDBA and KOS were among the strongest in Europe), he gets info as from the East and from the West and currently maybe the most important and worrying for me, given his recent dark prognosis, is that he just had an opportunity to speak "on 4 eyes only" with Xi
Regarding messengers. Naryshkin is a man carrying a real message, from a real decision center. Vucic is more like a canary in the mine, he has a lot of information, but most important is that in his position, as a leader of Serbia, on the ewe of Third World War, he feels the threat, intuitively, almost instinctively.
I hope sincerely, in the name of Serbian neighbors, that the war goes over our heads this time, but, reason as well as history tell us a different story.
Meh, Hal Turner? Really?
Turner is not very reliable I agree but it is not Turner who is important but the link to Vucic itw.
what link to Vucic do you mean?
Thank You, Aleks. I am less sanguine about "red lines" not being crossed.
It seems to me that the financial structure of the $US and "Eurodollars" and "petrodollars" is leaning over the cliff and must go over it. The Petrodollar agreement with the Saudis has expired, and was not fully being followed, anymore. The "Unit" seems likely to be fully operational on New Years Day 2025, to be officially announced in September.
There is probably a line of countries preparing to default on $US debts and throw their entire economies into the BRICS camp.
European countries, from the citizenry level, appear to be rebelling against the impositions made upon them by the masters. It is not really a secret that the masters are manipulating the people into wars and picking-losers amongst them. It is known by those who are intelligently paying attention.
I am very concerned about a false-flag setting off something very big, just ahead of a resumption of the 2008 financial crisis.
why do you expect to be announced exactly in September and implemented in the beginning of the 2025?
I'm sorry, October in Kazan. I was off a month. They have said all along that it should be operational in 2025. I think they are being conservative and will make a strong showing on New Year's Day.
Petro dollar supposed agreement with the Saudis is fake news...Saudis were in the 'piss conference' today in Luzern. They could even leave brics soon.
Hungary, Serbia and Turkey signed the Luzern 'peace deal', these countries were supposed to be 'Russian friends'...if Putin does not wake up he will lose the war and be the responsible for the end of the country, WWIII is coming soon.Russia must strike first otherwise it is over:
Devastating Escalations Between Russia and NATO - Ukraine is Being Decimated | MIT Prof. Ted Postol.
https://youtu.be/31evDkl--g0?si=GaEiwQHjD95hCAsz
We shall see.
Exciting summer ;-(
I will travel to Brazil to meet my family, maybe I will have to stay there longer if there is no more Northern Hemisphere.
where do ou reside usually ?
That gives you an option, which may be valuable.
Ukraine is far from being defeated. They are holding the line, at least. Their losses do not matter as they are accepting them. Ukrainian society understands that this is an existential war, Russian society understands this to a much lesser extent. This is why Ukraine is able to mobilize so many people, even forcibly and Russia wont mobilize as Russians would not like it.
The west is still able to print money and finance the war. They feel no pain.
This is why Russia in fact failed until now. Putin is very rational and logical, but he does not understand that he is dealing with psychopaths. The psychopaths understand only fear. And they are not afraid of Russia any more.
"Israel will be strategically and militarily defeated with a subsequent regime change to a government that will comply with the surrender conditions under international law."
To whom is Israel supposed to surrender to? Palestine? A country that no longer exists? The Palestinian people? The Palestinian people are all dead, or will be. I hear Sampson, getting a trim before the last dance starts.
Israel is supposed to surrender? International order? You must be joking. Surrender to the "Rules based order? Whose rules and whose order?
Aleks, you write
"I believe the probability of a European war is above 50%. And I think it will become evident by 2026 and could start by 2028."
What`s your take on another Franz Ferdinand-like scenario as the ignitor?
Thierry Meyssan published an according piece ("Is Serbia next after Ukraine?") on June 14 via Voltaire Net, which I find quite plausible.
Would love to get your thoughts on that one!