Thank You, Aleks. This is much appreciated. With the massive strikes of personnel, supplies and munitions recently, and the strike against the deep command bunker in western Ukraine a month ago, I have been somewhat hopeful that a massive counteroffennsive is being prevented.
The US/NATO is gradually degrading internally, and in global prestige and in $US hegemony, which is what makes the military machine of the empire possible.
It is terrible to see the war grind on, the COVID control-narrative still pushing forward, and to consider the back-up plans for financial control of western populations with CBDC.
Ukraine pushed the wef fake covid narrative, forced vaccinations, travel bans, vax certificates for a few years before the war broke out. Yet, somehow, the brain dead Ukrainians didn’t realize this was one big fraud and convinced themselves to fight and die for this Ukrainian gov. You just can’t make this stuff up it’s so stupid.
One question: Do You think/imagine that the double drone attempts on the Kremlin could change the current smo parameters? Or are them only a provocation to have the war "they" so disperately need?
The drone attack is a significant event. It would be unprofessional to instantly issue any analysis about this. I need 48 hours to see how things develop to be able to say more.
Nevertheless, I don't think that the overall strategic picture will change to much. And I absolutely think that the Russians anticipated that one day such an event will happen and they have well prepared contingency plans for this.
When I am afraid I turn on my radio. It is tuned to a Contemporary Christian station, so I can listen & sing along with scripture all day. Or I play specific spiritual songs on my phone or copied onto my i-pad that I know will bring me to the right place to be.
Bravo, Aleks! I think you're correct: Russia is countering the alleged "offensive," by destroying the pre-positioned supplies (re: Pavlograd). Removing the munitions and equipment should add pause to those directing the Ukrainian forces. Should...
If the probing actions start by UAF-NATO, then I would not be surprised if Russia maneuvers in a feint, once again redirecting UAF battle plans, much like the motion towards Kiev last year. Once forces are committed, the third (fourth) iteration of the AUF will be dissolved. Horrible loss of lives, genetic brothers makes it more so.
Unconditional surrender or complete capitulation of Ukraine are the only two options of ending the SMO. Russia is a Civilization State, and has severed all ties with the "West," with economic ties growing within BRICS and the Global South.
Thanks for your post. It summarizes well many possible outcomes.
I suspect that the West has many cards under the sleeve, most of them for pure PR results. For instance, the explosion of a dirty bomb in a big Russian city (a bomb prepared well in advance of the SMO) or similar initiative. Nothing impossible if the West was able to flight drones from Eastern Russia to the Kremlin.
I understand the linear logic of the "ideal Ukrainian offensive" (a distraction maneuver) but I find it too simplistic. For 2 warriors fighting each other, a distraction maneuver may work very well, but for an army that conducts ISR 24/7 on several fronts and that it's planning new scenarios on the move, it's hard to surprise it. An offensive around Kharkov will arise suspicion on other sections of the front.
Also, I find it difficult that the Russians wouldn't counter-counterattack in some way or another, depending on the main counteroffensive direction.
I expect a hybrid initiative from the West, such as the dirty bomb, plus providing long rang missiles that would further damage the Kerch bridge and an international setback for Russia (such as a new Turkish president or Saudi MBS imposing limited sanctions to Russia), all at the same time, and then offering to set up peace talks, expecting that magically Russia will give up due to the PR setbacks.
You make a good case for the CO being in Artemovsk. I am not sure about the destruction of Wagner. They're flanked by Russian military and the place is already destroyed. They can retreat and bomb them all the way to Valhalla. NATO would get their PR win ("Look how weak Russia is. They've been fighting for this town for 11 months and we took it back in 2 week").
I would like to develop a little more your point about an "insertion offensive" towards Mariupol.
However, there is quite a distance between the line of contact (say, Ugledar) and Mariupol. The Russians may halt the Ukrainians advance in between.
Would there be another target for such "insertion offensive" by the Ukrainians, which is closer to the line of contact, and even better (politically speaking) than Mariupol for them?
I believe that yes -- Donetsk (the city, not the oblast).
I would like to know your thoughts about this. Thank you.
There's an opinion regarding Kharkov that NATO-Ukraine were actively provoked to start an offensive exactly there in order to draw them from other areas and wear them down. Also it might've affected attitudes in russian society towards partial mobilization which began shortly afterwards.
I have a feeling that something is missing. Of course, it is not possible to take it into account during the analysis. As incredible as it may seem, I would still take into account the greater involvement of NATO or "allies" in the conflict than the current one. The West has invested too much to afford any other option than victory or the conditions for the "Minsk Agreements 3" as a precondition for the destabilization and disintegration of Russia. I think that Russia will have to take a more active role in "responses" to the West than it currently does.
I find it impossible to empathize with people who would take up arms against Russia in defense of Drag Queen Story Hour and pediatric gender clinics. Would I have preferred that they didn't? Certainly, but they have, so that is irrelevant.
P.S. I believe the doctrine Russia employed in Kherson and Kharkov is called maneuver defense, not mobile defense, but I could be wrong.
I wonder about what's next? What happens after the last Ukrainian is down and out. I don't think there is any doubt that NATO is planning to expand into Finland, Georgia, Odessa or where ever they get the chance. Will Russia be willing to take on NATO directly to push them back to pre-expansion position?
Sorry to say this, but untill NATO will not get losses(body bags of real nato soldiers, mainly US Army)in NATO countries and infra destructions, this war will not end.This is now existential for both sides.Maybe more now for the West?As their all financial system is collapsing (banks regional for the moment, the rest will follow).NATO when attacked by phases on his territory will show it is a paper tiger. As for the moment economies, civilian and their military(not fake mercenaries) have ultra low bad real bad consequences in their daily life and even not a lot of people in the West are living difficult times(only the poors, maximum lower middle class, zero bad consequences for the rest). But when war is declared with hundreds then rapidly thousands of body bags that msm will not be abble to hide this time, real economy will not suffer only of inflation or a bit higher energy prices). In my nato country energy is now cheaper than in 2021.Even during last winter it was not so bad, as govts bailout family and corporate in exchange for hundreds of billions of new debts.I even pay lower energy now and long term fix contracts are back.BUT, yes BUT...when a real war starts in Europe(Eastern Europe only + scandinavia then?), things will be totally different as according to GS bank, stocks may fall as much as 60/75% which means dozens of trillions wiped out and this time rich and very rich people will have massive losses.Economy will stop, no more vacations, no more going out to take a beer of two, possibility of civilians killed/wounded, maybe your family or friends, believe me it will scare to the death the vast majority of pro ukies armchairs twitter facebook generals.Inflation will go hyperinflation, after some time products will start missing, unemployment will explode, shops and factories will go bankrupted. GDP will fall 'à la covid' 10 % or more, but this time impossible to continue QE eternity as public and private debts are at their highest level ever.Russia can not win a conventionnal war on nato territory, both sides know that. Both sides will run out of ammo, missiles, tanks etc..winter 23-24 will quickly arrive(maybe colder than last one?), energy pricing will explode again even worse as in case of war all remaining oil and gaz deliveries directly of via via, will stop.Both sides will be forced to nukes or capitulate but Russia has many more capabilities(if true?) than NATO and is almost self sufficient, still has industries, Europe has NOTHING NADA NIENTE RIEN. Next year is election year in various countries including US and Russia but also in may in ALL EU countries.I don't see these weak EU politicians doing well at all going to elections after or a nuclear war or in a hot war even if limited at Eastern Europe.Of course in theory here big winners are those which are far from the Front: US and Canada, countries with energy ressources but they will see body bags back home.This total disaster for NATO EU side will not last very long as people live in a virtual world in total confort still for a big majority. Nato EU leaders pretty don't care about their poors or even lower middle class as they don't vote for them anyway.Look at Macron already acting as a de facto dictator with full power(he does not even respect the parliement votes anymore, reign by decrees like in a war).Social violence will errupt as many people will have nothing to lose at some point.And police will switch side at one later point when ask to shoot heir people of the same class.Western leaders and military are absolutely NOT READY for that.Russians know what real war is.Capitulation at any condition will come first from Western EU then maybe from moderate eastern EU or non EU countries. US +UK+CAN will never capitulate as they can print money like crazy(not the EU Eurozone), have ressources to survive much longer.
I personaly think this war is two things: real reason no1, great reset
Reason no 2: payback for Syria failed greater Israel project due to VVP intervention in 2015.
Neocons are at 90% not muslims, not orthoxs, not budhists, very few catho or protestants, you see what I mean? Nuland, Blinken(J ukies origins) and a few other are going for broke as their goal is Armageddon nothing else then their 'Messiah' will show up and Israel will reign on the all world with second Israel being the 'exeptionnal indispential nation called USA , new Jerusalem on the hill and who knows maybe Israel no 3, aka Ukraine including Crimea and Odessa their only real goal, the rest of Ukraine can be destroyed even Kiev or Llov they don't care even less about ALL ukrainians.
Not to forget Ukraine mainly on pro russian areas is ver rich, NovRussia has between 12 and 15 trillions in ressources hidden or not(Burisma anyone?).
WWI WWII WWIII have one and only one creator, proxys change with the time but real targets are continental Europe and later on Eurasia and World dicatorship called ''rules based order''.Nothing changed since the first colour revolution in 1917, same necons used to be called Bolcheviks,then German proxy now ukies.
I can imagine that a lot of Ukrainian soldiers are going AWOL. If it were me, I certainly would take my chances - in the end it doesn't who shoots you dead, but if there's even a slight hope of escaping.
Most of these young guys are not independent thinkers. They are incapable of looking at this situation and deciding on their own the best course of action. That goes for most young people in any country including the USA .
In the future I see consciousness evolving to where young people would laugh at the thought of going to war because some stupid old politician or fake media says so.
I keeping forgetting about that component. I asked a friend years ago, who was doing military-security training in Saudi Arabia, why he was having so much trouble with it. He replied that he had difficulty finding men who could think independently enough to become team leaders.
The west does not want negotiations, that is true. And after the recent drone attack on the Kremlin, the possibilities for negotiations are smaller than ever.
For negotiations you need a real party to negotiate with. The USG is controlled by the neocons. The Biden administration is an Illegal gov. Their agenda is the great reset created by the wef. Everything they do is towards that goal.
It can be only hoped that the strikes in the rear will be enough to prevent any massive offensives. Ukraine/Nato has done a very good job in suppressing information from the results, in order to have the best chance of launching an attack (regardless of the odds and suppressing knowledge of odds, or available equipment) and have the best possible moral.
I also recall reading earlier this year that the actual Nato plan for an offensive was actually three separate waves. The first one was the mobilized cannon fodder wave to suppress or wear down the defense, second was supposed to be "legacy USSR" equipment and tanks, and the final wave the "best Nato trained" mechanized or mobile brigades, probably for PR and optics against least resistance. I don't know whether that's still part of the plan or not, but I'd guess that at this point they can't afford to separate Nato or legacy USSR troops or equipment. Throwing the "worst" troops first is probably a valid strategy, albeit disgusting.
Stoltenberg also recently advertised that Nato has delivered "98% of promised equipment" to Ukraine. Hopefully a large portion of that is already gone from rear area strikes, but it'll remain to be seen.
Thank You, Aleks. This is much appreciated. With the massive strikes of personnel, supplies and munitions recently, and the strike against the deep command bunker in western Ukraine a month ago, I have been somewhat hopeful that a massive counteroffennsive is being prevented.
The US/NATO is gradually degrading internally, and in global prestige and in $US hegemony, which is what makes the military machine of the empire possible.
It is terrible to see the war grind on, the COVID control-narrative still pushing forward, and to consider the back-up plans for financial control of western populations with CBDC.
Ukraine pushed the wef fake covid narrative, forced vaccinations, travel bans, vax certificates for a few years before the war broke out. Yet, somehow, the brain dead Ukrainians didn’t realize this was one big fraud and convinced themselves to fight and die for this Ukrainian gov. You just can’t make this stuff up it’s so stupid.
Most people just stay with their herd, no matter where it goes...
:-(
Hello Sir... Brilliant analysis as usual.
One question: Do You think/imagine that the double drone attempts on the Kremlin could change the current smo parameters? Or are them only a provocation to have the war "they" so disperately need?
Thank you.
The drone attack is a significant event. It would be unprofessional to instantly issue any analysis about this. I need 48 hours to see how things develop to be able to say more.
Nevertheless, I don't think that the overall strategic picture will change to much. And I absolutely think that the Russians anticipated that one day such an event will happen and they have well prepared contingency plans for this.
We can say more in 48 hours.
Thank You Sir, You're right... but I'm scared... :(
Pray the Holy Rosary, every day.
Mother Mary will never abandon you. She'll keep you under Her Mantle.
Ave Maria!!
When I am afraid I turn on my radio. It is tuned to a Contemporary Christian station, so I can listen & sing along with scripture all day. Or I play specific spiritual songs on my phone or copied onto my i-pad that I know will bring me to the right place to be.
I sleep or play games but in an emergency I call on Jesus. 😁
Bravo, Aleks! I think you're correct: Russia is countering the alleged "offensive," by destroying the pre-positioned supplies (re: Pavlograd). Removing the munitions and equipment should add pause to those directing the Ukrainian forces. Should...
If the probing actions start by UAF-NATO, then I would not be surprised if Russia maneuvers in a feint, once again redirecting UAF battle plans, much like the motion towards Kiev last year. Once forces are committed, the third (fourth) iteration of the AUF will be dissolved. Horrible loss of lives, genetic brothers makes it more so.
Unconditional surrender or complete capitulation of Ukraine are the only two options of ending the SMO. Russia is a Civilization State, and has severed all ties with the "West," with economic ties growing within BRICS and the Global South.
Thanks for your post. It summarizes well many possible outcomes.
I suspect that the West has many cards under the sleeve, most of them for pure PR results. For instance, the explosion of a dirty bomb in a big Russian city (a bomb prepared well in advance of the SMO) or similar initiative. Nothing impossible if the West was able to flight drones from Eastern Russia to the Kremlin.
I understand the linear logic of the "ideal Ukrainian offensive" (a distraction maneuver) but I find it too simplistic. For 2 warriors fighting each other, a distraction maneuver may work very well, but for an army that conducts ISR 24/7 on several fronts and that it's planning new scenarios on the move, it's hard to surprise it. An offensive around Kharkov will arise suspicion on other sections of the front.
Also, I find it difficult that the Russians wouldn't counter-counterattack in some way or another, depending on the main counteroffensive direction.
I expect a hybrid initiative from the West, such as the dirty bomb, plus providing long rang missiles that would further damage the Kerch bridge and an international setback for Russia (such as a new Turkish president or Saudi MBS imposing limited sanctions to Russia), all at the same time, and then offering to set up peace talks, expecting that magically Russia will give up due to the PR setbacks.
Awesome stuff! Are you sure your name isn't Andrei?
You make a good case for the CO being in Artemovsk. I am not sure about the destruction of Wagner. They're flanked by Russian military and the place is already destroyed. They can retreat and bomb them all the way to Valhalla. NATO would get their PR win ("Look how weak Russia is. They've been fighting for this town for 11 months and we took it back in 2 week").
Dear Aleks, greetings!
I would like to develop a little more your point about an "insertion offensive" towards Mariupol.
However, there is quite a distance between the line of contact (say, Ugledar) and Mariupol. The Russians may halt the Ukrainians advance in between.
Would there be another target for such "insertion offensive" by the Ukrainians, which is closer to the line of contact, and even better (politically speaking) than Mariupol for them?
I believe that yes -- Donetsk (the city, not the oblast).
I would like to know your thoughts about this. Thank you.
There's an opinion regarding Kharkov that NATO-Ukraine were actively provoked to start an offensive exactly there in order to draw them from other areas and wear them down. Also it might've affected attitudes in russian society towards partial mobilization which began shortly afterwards.
I have a feeling that something is missing. Of course, it is not possible to take it into account during the analysis. As incredible as it may seem, I would still take into account the greater involvement of NATO or "allies" in the conflict than the current one. The West has invested too much to afford any other option than victory or the conditions for the "Minsk Agreements 3" as a precondition for the destabilization and disintegration of Russia. I think that Russia will have to take a more active role in "responses" to the West than it currently does.
I find it impossible to empathize with people who would take up arms against Russia in defense of Drag Queen Story Hour and pediatric gender clinics. Would I have preferred that they didn't? Certainly, but they have, so that is irrelevant.
P.S. I believe the doctrine Russia employed in Kherson and Kharkov is called maneuver defense, not mobile defense, but I could be wrong.
I wonder about what's next? What happens after the last Ukrainian is down and out. I don't think there is any doubt that NATO is planning to expand into Finland, Georgia, Odessa or where ever they get the chance. Will Russia be willing to take on NATO directly to push them back to pre-expansion position?
Sorry to say this, but untill NATO will not get losses(body bags of real nato soldiers, mainly US Army)in NATO countries and infra destructions, this war will not end.This is now existential for both sides.Maybe more now for the West?As their all financial system is collapsing (banks regional for the moment, the rest will follow).NATO when attacked by phases on his territory will show it is a paper tiger. As for the moment economies, civilian and their military(not fake mercenaries) have ultra low bad real bad consequences in their daily life and even not a lot of people in the West are living difficult times(only the poors, maximum lower middle class, zero bad consequences for the rest). But when war is declared with hundreds then rapidly thousands of body bags that msm will not be abble to hide this time, real economy will not suffer only of inflation or a bit higher energy prices). In my nato country energy is now cheaper than in 2021.Even during last winter it was not so bad, as govts bailout family and corporate in exchange for hundreds of billions of new debts.I even pay lower energy now and long term fix contracts are back.BUT, yes BUT...when a real war starts in Europe(Eastern Europe only + scandinavia then?), things will be totally different as according to GS bank, stocks may fall as much as 60/75% which means dozens of trillions wiped out and this time rich and very rich people will have massive losses.Economy will stop, no more vacations, no more going out to take a beer of two, possibility of civilians killed/wounded, maybe your family or friends, believe me it will scare to the death the vast majority of pro ukies armchairs twitter facebook generals.Inflation will go hyperinflation, after some time products will start missing, unemployment will explode, shops and factories will go bankrupted. GDP will fall 'à la covid' 10 % or more, but this time impossible to continue QE eternity as public and private debts are at their highest level ever.Russia can not win a conventionnal war on nato territory, both sides know that. Both sides will run out of ammo, missiles, tanks etc..winter 23-24 will quickly arrive(maybe colder than last one?), energy pricing will explode again even worse as in case of war all remaining oil and gaz deliveries directly of via via, will stop.Both sides will be forced to nukes or capitulate but Russia has many more capabilities(if true?) than NATO and is almost self sufficient, still has industries, Europe has NOTHING NADA NIENTE RIEN. Next year is election year in various countries including US and Russia but also in may in ALL EU countries.I don't see these weak EU politicians doing well at all going to elections after or a nuclear war or in a hot war even if limited at Eastern Europe.Of course in theory here big winners are those which are far from the Front: US and Canada, countries with energy ressources but they will see body bags back home.This total disaster for NATO EU side will not last very long as people live in a virtual world in total confort still for a big majority. Nato EU leaders pretty don't care about their poors or even lower middle class as they don't vote for them anyway.Look at Macron already acting as a de facto dictator with full power(he does not even respect the parliement votes anymore, reign by decrees like in a war).Social violence will errupt as many people will have nothing to lose at some point.And police will switch side at one later point when ask to shoot heir people of the same class.Western leaders and military are absolutely NOT READY for that.Russians know what real war is.Capitulation at any condition will come first from Western EU then maybe from moderate eastern EU or non EU countries. US +UK+CAN will never capitulate as they can print money like crazy(not the EU Eurozone), have ressources to survive much longer.
I personaly think this war is two things: real reason no1, great reset
Reason no 2: payback for Syria failed greater Israel project due to VVP intervention in 2015.
Neocons are at 90% not muslims, not orthoxs, not budhists, very few catho or protestants, you see what I mean? Nuland, Blinken(J ukies origins) and a few other are going for broke as their goal is Armageddon nothing else then their 'Messiah' will show up and Israel will reign on the all world with second Israel being the 'exeptionnal indispential nation called USA , new Jerusalem on the hill and who knows maybe Israel no 3, aka Ukraine including Crimea and Odessa their only real goal, the rest of Ukraine can be destroyed even Kiev or Llov they don't care even less about ALL ukrainians.
Not to forget Ukraine mainly on pro russian areas is ver rich, NovRussia has between 12 and 15 trillions in ressources hidden or not(Burisma anyone?).
WWI WWII WWIII have one and only one creator, proxys change with the time but real targets are continental Europe and later on Eurasia and World dicatorship called ''rules based order''.Nothing changed since the first colour revolution in 1917, same necons used to be called Bolcheviks,then German proxy now ukies.
https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/the-truth-about-the-conflict-with-russia/
Superb. The best analysis I have seen this far.
Thank you :)
Take a look at my other articles and analysis as well ;)
I can imagine that a lot of Ukrainian soldiers are going AWOL. If it were me, I certainly would take my chances - in the end it doesn't who shoots you dead, but if there's even a slight hope of escaping.
Most of these young guys are not independent thinkers. They are incapable of looking at this situation and deciding on their own the best course of action. That goes for most young people in any country including the USA .
In the future I see consciousness evolving to where young people would laugh at the thought of going to war because some stupid old politician or fake media says so.
I keeping forgetting about that component. I asked a friend years ago, who was doing military-security training in Saudi Arabia, why he was having so much trouble with it. He replied that he had difficulty finding men who could think independently enough to become team leaders.
Independent thinkers with awareness are not in the military.
lol Probably not.
The west does not want negotiations, that is true. And after the recent drone attack on the Kremlin, the possibilities for negotiations are smaller than ever.
For negotiations you need a real party to negotiate with. The USG is controlled by the neocons. The Biden administration is an Illegal gov. Their agenda is the great reset created by the wef. Everything they do is towards that goal.
Thank you Aleks 👍🏼
It can be only hoped that the strikes in the rear will be enough to prevent any massive offensives. Ukraine/Nato has done a very good job in suppressing information from the results, in order to have the best chance of launching an attack (regardless of the odds and suppressing knowledge of odds, or available equipment) and have the best possible moral.
I also recall reading earlier this year that the actual Nato plan for an offensive was actually three separate waves. The first one was the mobilized cannon fodder wave to suppress or wear down the defense, second was supposed to be "legacy USSR" equipment and tanks, and the final wave the "best Nato trained" mechanized or mobile brigades, probably for PR and optics against least resistance. I don't know whether that's still part of the plan or not, but I'd guess that at this point they can't afford to separate Nato or legacy USSR troops or equipment. Throwing the "worst" troops first is probably a valid strategy, albeit disgusting.
Stoltenberg also recently advertised that Nato has delivered "98% of promised equipment" to Ukraine. Hopefully a large portion of that is already gone from rear area strikes, but it'll remain to be seen.