Operational update

Scorched Earth, war crimes, Avdeevka and the Chinese

Introduction

Since several circumstances on the battlefield have changed, I decided to write a new operational update. Moreover, it looks like the end of the armed resistance of Ukraine is near and very tangible. Which leads to a couple of questions regarding the justification of continuing the conflict. Legal ones as well. I’ll try to explain in very shortly.

I observed a change in the operational approach of the Russians with regards to the vectors of attrition in Donbass. BMA lined originally five vectors out. Which originally actually have been activated and pressed. Since our original five vectors have changed now, I’ll bring our definition up to the current state of affairs.

Eventually I’m going to discuss the meeting between President Xi and President Putin next week (March 20^th) and what they perhaps could be proposing to President Zelensky to end the war.

Preconditions

To get a good understanding of what I’m going to discuss here I propose that you read the following articles in advance:

• Ukraine: Scorched Earth

• Definition of the five Theatres of War

• Landbridge to Hungary and Serbia

Scorched Earth

Today we see, that Ukraine is struggling to keep the five Theatres of War supplied sufficiently with fresh troops and equipment. The demand for replenishment is growing and the capacity of the Ukrainian logistics is shrinking.

Why is the demand growing:

• The intensity of the battles is growing. The Russians are pushing aggressively forward.

• In more then a year of fighting Ukraine used up most of the supplies of basically everything it needs to sustain the war. I’m not only talking about military equipment but also about civilian goods in the rear, that has been required to keep the rear functions working.

• The Ukrainian army is in the meanwhile almost fully dependent on Western equipment since the Soviet stocks have been depleted or destroyed. The Western equipment needs to be maintained in Poland or Germany. If the Soviet equipment could have been maintained in Ukraine, in many cases on the battlefield, the Western stuff needs to be transported thousands of miles. This puts further stress on the logistics network.

• Ukraine had plenty of huge machine factories in which they have been able to maintain its weapons and equipment. Most of these factories and improvised workshops have been identified and destroyed.

Why the capacity has shrunk:

• Ever more substations are destroyed which affects different functions of the rear logistics.

• Plenty of trains have been destroyed.

• Ever more warehouses, that have been used for storing supplies are identified and destroyed. It is a cat and mouse game between the West and Russia to identify new locations for storing supplies and to identify them and destroy them.

• I assume that from the beginning of the war some 150,000 people have been engaged in the rear logistics. To enable the transport back and forth between the West and the East and the inner Ukrainian transport, production and distribution of goods, equipment, training, replenishment etc.

Since Ukraine is very short of manpower I personally assume that many of these rear troops and civilian auxiliary forces have been also mobilized and sent to the frontline. Which of course further complicates the logistical situation on the ground. Still, I assume that logistics work since it is the most important function of an army. If Ukraine fully cannibalize the rear troops and people, then the collapse is already underway. Could happen within the next two to three months.

But most importantly, Ukraine ran out of people. We observe currently the last possible professional troops, that have been trained in the West get committed to the fight. They should have been held back for the counter offensive in the south. Since Russia increased the pressure on the five Theatres of War manifold the attrition rate of the Ukrainian forces there started to increase unsustainably. To prevent these frontlines from collapsing Ukraine has been forced to commit these professional troops, that have been earmarked for the counteroffensive, to stabilize the frontlines.

If any of these Theatres of war would collapse, all other Theatres would follow since the rear of the other ones would be exposed in this case.

Well, that’s definitely not in the Western interest. What is actually happening?

• Ukraine is losing insane numbers of troops daily. I assume far more than claimed by both sides. Ukraine has an interest to keep the numbers low for public support. Russia mustn’t claim to high numbers because it has a negative effect on the soldiers. They are fighting brothers. Sometimes literally Donbass brothers. What is happening currently is nothing else then a slaughter in a civil war, forced on the Russians (Ukrainians) by the West. No Russian is happy about that. Neither am I. This actually is in the interest of the West.

• Ukraine is using insane numbers of ammunition, weapons and equipment to hold the ground in Donbass. Hence, these weapons don’t produce some added value to the West. They usually don’t get to see a Russian solider to kill him, since the Ukrainians in Donbass dying almost exclusively by artillery shells, airstrikes and tank fire. Hence, the West is delivering equipment which is being wasted for nothing. It should at least kill plenty of Russians but in this configuration thousands of Ukrainian troops get equipped with Western weapons, get sent to the frontline and dying without firing a shot or seeing a Russian. That is a very bad investment.

Conclusion? Ukrainians dying and wasting equipment for nothing. The actual invested political and financial capital is not achieving the desired main goal:

• Cutting the road to Crimea. Would be a major political blow to Russia which would cost it a lot of political capital domestically and at their allies.

• Or even better, and worse for the Russians, to set the foot of at least one single Ukrainian solider on the Crimean soil. It doesn’t matter, if Ukraine would collapse right after this step, but this step would be politically deadly for Russia.

These unreliable Ukrainians…

Not entirely:

• Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are dead. Multiple times more are wounded. Hence, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian families are torn apart, destroyed or displaced. The West can be sure, that at least several generations of Ukrainians will hate Russia deeply. There will need to be a very expensive program set up by the Russians in the newly integrated or occupied territories to integrate these people into the Russian society. Scorched Earth.

• Tens of thousands of Russians are dead or wounded. This could well reach 100,000 dead and wounded before the war is over, if it is not already. Which in turn also means millions of families that will hate every policy that would provide spending on integrating of the now hated Ukrainians. Scorched Earth.

• Which brings us to the hatred in general which has been activated by the West between Russians and their Ukrainian (Of which most are RUSSIANS) brothers. Scorched Earth.

• The Western commanders are forcing the Ukrainians to fight in every big factory in Donbass to make sure it gets destroyed fully. Which leads to unemployment in the new territories since the factories are destroyed. People that experienced a war and sitting idle at home can do crazy things. Moreover, the rebuilding of these factories will cost a lot. Most likely BRICS partners will be invited to invest. Which is not favourable in terms of sovereignty. Scorched Earth.

• Even though Russia is trying hard to win the war with legacy weapons to not expose the most modern technologies to NATO, we could still assume that NATO is carefully studying the way the Russians are fighting. Especially in certain standard situations. Offensives, defence, logistics etc.

• Creating a massive demographic catastrophe in Ukraine. Most families fled abroad and will never return. The able bodied male population that has not been able to hide in villages etc. has been worn down on the frontline. The wounded and invalids will paralyze the country further on for decades. In the new Russian territories (many are still to join) these are further costs on the Russian balance sheet. Scorched Earth.

• The same goes for the Russian invalids in Russia. You won’t be able to fully bring them back to work, at least many of them. Instead, they will cost for care taking etc. Scorched Earth.

Ukraine didn’t have a chance from the beginning. It was very clear to the West. Still all available money and equipment have been invested to sustain the fight of the Ukrainians which led to the catastrophic consequences, listed above.

Today it is very clear that the collapse is imminent. And still we see, that the West is insisting instead of preserving these men, to attrition them in the right way. Not, for no purpose in the Artemovsk meatgrinder and the other Theatres but to gain political advantage in the south to Melitopol. Remaining Ukrainian men, don’t die senselessly for us - the West! Shame on you! Die in Melitopol, so we can gain political leverage over the Russians!

I hope, you, dear reader, understand what I want to highlight. The war and struggle for victory is over. I’d say since the Russians created a semi cauldron over Artemovsk which serves as a shooting range on Ukrainians which are trying to enter or escape the meatgrinder. Ukraine is no longer actually fighting to defend Ukraine. This struggle is over. It is the time where a commander-in-chief is obliged to realize that is has no purpose to keep on fighting anymore and to start negotiating the best possible surrender conditions. When the army is defeated entirely, then this window is over and there is only a unconditional surrender possible, which I expect until Summer 2023.

Keep that in mind for the “Chinese” chapter.

Next, we will try to think about the legal perspective of pushing a people into their certain death without a prospect of actually gaining the upper hand.

War Crime

If the expected military success is not feasible and still a massive lose of lives, both civilian and military, resulting by the continuation of the fighting then it could be a war crime.

Ukraine is still mobilizing and feeding people into their certain death without any prospect for winning. Hence, through the continuation of the war tens or hundreds of thousands of civilians and troops are going to die without changing anything on the outcome of the war.

This is a very serious war crime. I mean, the severity is extreme. It is murder.

I could have field this argument earlier? No, actually not. Ukraine had some chances to win this war politically. I lined these chances out in my analysis of Phase 1-3. Then Russia mobilized. And still it was no war crime since the mobilized Russians has not been ready for fighting. At least not the majority. I personally assume that the re-training is over now and all troops are ready for their assigned purpose. This is exactly the moment in which the continuation of the war on the side of Ukraine is a war crime. There are now zero chances, both politically and military to win this. Every further killed person from now on is murder. By the West.

War Theatres

I need to correct my five Theatres of War.

Originally, I declared Ugledar as one vector of attrition. It seems to me, that Ugledar turned for Russia to a small version of Phase 1 of the war. Mine and artillery ambushed on open fields slowed the Russian offensive down here. Further pushing would lead to unnecessary Russian casualties. Russia is not rushing on Berlin like in 1945, where people were traded for time. It looks to me that the Russians have chosen to slow down the offensive here and work more with artillery from the distance. It has the same attrition effect but preserves more own troops.

Maybe some of you already mentioned that I did not value any significance to Avdeevka in my former analysis. Rightly so. If Marinka, Artemovsk and Ugledar would have fallen, then Avdeevka would have ended up automatically in a cauldron and the Ukrainians would be forced to pull out if they wouldn’t want to be cut off far behind the frontline. The reality is that both Ugledar and Marinka are being held with all available resources by the Ukrainians. Hence, sacrificing Russian troops here would not be appropriate, especially so short of the end of the war.

Hence, we can see the pivot of the Russian strategy to Avdeevka. Which could have been a surprise for the NATO planners. One needs to consider that Ukraine has more or less “hard wired” logistics routes to their main frontlines. If a new frontline or an intensification of the battle in a certain area occurs, then it is not very simple to re-rout operations to this area. Especially not the logistics infrastructure. Supplies and frontline depots.

To make it short. I see the activation of another vector of attrition or Theatre of War in order to release the pressure on Marinka and Ugledar. Or, if Ukraine is able to sustain all frontlines then to shorten the war by the increase of men and material attrition.

With regard to the Belarussian Theatre of War it is to be assumed that the ability to keep up the fight by the Ukrainians has been overestimated for several months. If the Ukrainians pull away troops from the Northern border, only to make up for the losses in Donbass then the situation is dire. I expected a vector of near border attrition there. There won’t be anything to attrition there…

As soon as the frontlines in Donbass collapse, there is a real possibility, that Russia could use the Belarussian border to somehow put pressure on Kiev and take it in a pincer, to force the negotiations of the Ukrainian surrender. More about that in the last chapter.

Chinese and Russian peace proposal

President Xi of China and President Putin will meet next week. There are also rumours, that China will propose a peace deal to Ukraine which is agreed upon by the Russians.

Who reads my blog knows that I see no chance on earth, that Ukraine will not fall fully to Russia. Yes, some parts could be released to pseudo-independence after denazification and demilitarization. Especially parts of Western Ukraine. NOTHING changed in my assessment.

Especially since the overall goal of the Russians is the implementation of the New Draft Treaty for European Security.

Remember, by not achieving its set geopolitical goals Russia automatically loses the war. Even if some kind of temporally peace has been achieved and Novorossiya (incl. Odessa) has joined Russia. Remember the threat of NATO, which would still be too close to the big Russian cities and which could lead to automized Armageddon if the Russian “Dead Hand” or “Perimetr” system is switched on automatic mode.

So, what could be the Chinese offer? And why is it offered at all?

Why is it offered? Well… I could explain it politely. I won’t. I will put out a single word. PR! Or public relations.

What could be the offer? I have no chance of knowing it but I will make an assumption. Since I lined out that all of Ukraine will need to be surrendered first and then some parts could be released into pseudo-independence, I personally can imagine that the question is, whether Kiev will be part of Russia or of the new pseudo-independent country. If Kiev is still part of it, it would mean the preservation of “Ukraine”, even though in dependence on Russia.

If Kiev goes into Russian statehood, Ukraine is fully done. And with it the possibility or the Western dream, to start this whole adventure again. To infiltrate again this pseudo-independent state and bring it back into Western influence. If Kiev is not part of this farce, then there is nothing left which would be viable or interesting for the West, except the landbridge to Hungary and Serbia. Which of course is a geopolitical necessity for Russia to break up NATO.

You think China would formulate it bluntly as I did here? That’s not how diplomacy works. There will be a beautiful X-point plan which is totally meaningless. The real terms of surrender will be communicated behind closed doors. Do I expect that the Ukrainians would accept such an offer? Well, since the Ukrainians have nothing to say here but only the Americans I have two different considerations:

1. Usually, the West wants to fight to the last Ukrainian. See the chapter about the Scorched Earth. Hence, every ceasefire which would preserve a single Ukrainian human being is inacceptable to the leaders of the US. I don’t want to blame the US people here.

2. Since keeping Kiev out of Russia could be seen in the US as a chance to preserve NATO by sabotaging all efforts in this new dependent entity in developing a landbridge to Hungary and Serbia it still could be an interesting offer for the US.

It is a huge risk for Russia and China to allow a vulnerable corridor to Hungary? Yes. I’m sure, that either the calculation is that Ukraine will reject it anyway or that the ability of Russia and China to protect this landbridge is ensured.

Or, I could be totally wrong and the Chinese/Russian proposal is something totally different or there is no proposal at all 😊

Why is the meeting between the Russians and the Chinese now? And why is there (presumably) a proposal NOW? As I said, since the Ukrainian army is short of collapsing (which means 2-3 months) and the Russian main mobilized and trained force is now in place, I assume we are in a “do or die” situation.

What does it mean? The Ukrainian forces are almost defeated and a even greater Russian force, than the one, that has defeated four iterations of the Ukrainian army is now ready for the final blow. The Russian/Chinese proposal could be like, “sign this conditional surrender or be defeated now without surrendering and without conditions”.

Here a brief remark: Russia and China are going to sign some agreements, apart of the Ukrainian question. It doesn’t matter for these agreements whether such an agreement, if it exists, will be accepted or not. But what agreements are being discussed? I will cover this question and many more in my coming major article about Asia.

Further developments

What does that mean actually? “Big Arrows”? 😊

No. As I said, the Ukrainian army is short of collapsing. I give it 2-3 months. As soon as this happens, I could imagine the commitment of the well trained mobilized armoured motorized tank and rifle divisions pushing through now undefended positions in the North, from Belarus to take Kiev into a pincer. You would perhaps argue that this IS a “Big Arrow” offensive. Since ever more Ukrainian troops are being pulled away from the Northern border regions to Donbass, there won’t be much that could put up a fight against such a large, armoured force.

Hence, it is not a “Big Arrow” offensive, it would be the positioning of forces around Kiev to reinforce negotiating efforts.

You don’t see the troops, logistics and equipment in Belarus yet? Me neither. I assume, that such a build-up would happen, after the proposal for surrender has been rejected. Nevertheless, the storming of Kiev would be madness. It is a Russian hero city. Like Odessa. I could imagine an encirclement. Negotiations would take place as long as the “Donbass” front develops to Zaporozhye and the “Belarus” front to the south. Every day, these fronts advance, increases the probability of the surrender of Kiev, if it is under siege. Or Ukraine needs to fall completely militarily, if Ukraine is not allowed to surrender. Which would be regrettable. Remember, while reading these lines, about the “War crime” chapter!