Once again, your analysis is excellent. One question I have regarding the short term activities of the SMO: What are your thoughts on the Russians using the next month as a pre-positioning of their forces in the east? Seems to me that mud season is coming soon, especially with the mild winter. Most of the land west of the current lines of contact are flat, great for maneuvering once mud season ends in mid-May.
The actions may be:
1. Get to designated pre-position points.
2. Slow advances to a stop.
3. Rotate troops and set up for post mud season.
4. Use the pause to offer terms of surrender; Chinese visit is a part of this.
5. Continue to grind down brothers as they advance.
6. Continue to destroy depots, supply lines, and target NATO command & control, and "volunteer," forces. Kinzhals and Zircons continue their stellar performances.
Bonus: the US continues to poke the Bear. A Reaper with transponder off; a B-52 simulating an attack on St. Petersburg....
Bonus, bonus: Serbian stud, Nikola Jokić, wins his third NBA MVP.
Why is the meeting between the Russians and the Chinese now?
For a lot of reasons, some related to Ukraine, most not.
I think the US is also on the verge of collapse. It is everyone's interest to see that when it does, it goes down in a whimper, and not off with a (nuclear) boom.
NATO is being disarmed right now. That's a good thing. When this is over, there will be no Ukraine, NATO or EU. Good riddance. The Globalist Hegemonic Empire has destroyed the West. The Empire must die.
The most researched figures I have run across for Russian casualties based on death notices in Russia was estimated at 20,000 RF servicemen killed. That seems most plausible. IF artillery and long-range fires are responsible for ~85% of the casualties and Russia has (at least) a 10:1 artillery advantage, how are they taking all these casualties again? Your other arguments on the disadvantages to Russia are weak. The only combat trained conventional Army in the world is now the RF. Every advanced weapon system and munition given to the Ukraine is in pieces in Russian (and probably Chinese R&D facilities); offsets any questionable NATO advantage you mention. You assertion that there will be generational hated is also not supported. I doubt that there will be as much as you claim. The Ukraine's who will hate will be the survivors with the swastika and Bandera tattoos, people that you don't want in your society anyway and easy enough to remove after the conflict. The rest of the defeated population will do what all defeated populations do - go back to life.
will the West not consider inserting their troops in Ukraine to preserve the parts that will remain Ukraine? How does this change the dynamics of the end phase and the final negotiations?
I too wish to know what the chines had to say, as for the war crimes the one you mention is the most obvious and started 24/02/2022, but you know highly motivated and ideologically confused people are in command, for those following daily reports from different telegrams channels, the crack are binging to show, a place like Avdeevka been surround it, Ugledar was a difficult job but Avdeevka was imposible, not even leveling down everything, and now is basically encircle. I assume you will wait the end of Xi visit to post your piece, will wait until then
So here's my question; what comes next after Ukraine in this Proxy World War? Some are saying Taiwan, but that seem doubtful, the Taiwan Chinese don't seem like they're easily fooled to be used as cannon fodder.
Agree with all your points except your claim that Russia has or will suffer up to 100 k casualties.
Bernhardt at MoA has pointed to the amount of artillery fire sustained by Russia and argues that with that rate and because the Russian infantry doesn't directly engage with the Ukies, there should be at least a 10:1 ratio of casualties in favor of Russia.
Re: "Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are dead. Multiple times more are wounded. Hence, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian families have been torn apart, destroyed or displaced. The West can be sure that at least several generations of Ukrainians will hate Russia. The Russians will have to set up a very expensive program in the newly incorporated or occupied territories to integrate these people into Russian society. Scorched Earth."
Perhaps. But then again, perhaps not. I ask what you analysis of Chechnya is - where a comparable percentage of the population was killed in conflict with Russia. And yet there are Chechen troops volunteering to fight in Ukraine. There are plenty more examples: Vietnam - literally millions of Vietnamese died kicking out the French and then the Americans. They don't seem to hate Ho Chih Min. Afghanistan and the Taliban: how many Afghans died fighting the "democratic" Afghan government and US soldiers? The Taliban went from defeated to defeating the US occupation.
"Tens of thousands of Russians are dead or wounded. The toll could reach 100,000 before the war is over, if it hasn’t already, which in turn means millions of families that will resent every policy that involves spending to integrate the now-hated Ukrainians. Scorched Earth."
This I utterly disagree with. Literally tens of millions of Russians died in World War 2 - but the outcome wasn't a hated Stalin. Rather the opposite, in fact.
Put another way: Do the families of Americans who died fighting the "War on Terror" believe their sacrifices really were necessary or vital to America's security?
Now compare the situation with Russia and a NATO-ized Ukraine.
Once again, your analysis is excellent. One question I have regarding the short term activities of the SMO: What are your thoughts on the Russians using the next month as a pre-positioning of their forces in the east? Seems to me that mud season is coming soon, especially with the mild winter. Most of the land west of the current lines of contact are flat, great for maneuvering once mud season ends in mid-May.
The actions may be:
1. Get to designated pre-position points.
2. Slow advances to a stop.
3. Rotate troops and set up for post mud season.
4. Use the pause to offer terms of surrender; Chinese visit is a part of this.
5. Continue to grind down brothers as they advance.
6. Continue to destroy depots, supply lines, and target NATO command & control, and "volunteer," forces. Kinzhals and Zircons continue their stellar performances.
Bonus: the US continues to poke the Bear. A Reaper with transponder off; a B-52 simulating an attack on St. Petersburg....
Bonus, bonus: Serbian stud, Nikola Jokić, wins his third NBA MVP.
Alas, my reading is finished for the day. Finished with the…best. Your truly, always, GodSpeed💙🇷🇺❤️🐻❄️🧡🐻
Why is the meeting between the Russians and the Chinese now?
For a lot of reasons, some related to Ukraine, most not.
I think the US is also on the verge of collapse. It is everyone's interest to see that when it does, it goes down in a whimper, and not off with a (nuclear) boom.
NATO is being disarmed right now. That's a good thing. When this is over, there will be no Ukraine, NATO or EU. Good riddance. The Globalist Hegemonic Empire has destroyed the West. The Empire must die.
Brilliant! Thank you!
The most researched figures I have run across for Russian casualties based on death notices in Russia was estimated at 20,000 RF servicemen killed. That seems most plausible. IF artillery and long-range fires are responsible for ~85% of the casualties and Russia has (at least) a 10:1 artillery advantage, how are they taking all these casualties again? Your other arguments on the disadvantages to Russia are weak. The only combat trained conventional Army in the world is now the RF. Every advanced weapon system and munition given to the Ukraine is in pieces in Russian (and probably Chinese R&D facilities); offsets any questionable NATO advantage you mention. You assertion that there will be generational hated is also not supported. I doubt that there will be as much as you claim. The Ukraine's who will hate will be the survivors with the swastika and Bandera tattoos, people that you don't want in your society anyway and easy enough to remove after the conflict. The rest of the defeated population will do what all defeated populations do - go back to life.
will the West not consider inserting their troops in Ukraine to preserve the parts that will remain Ukraine? How does this change the dynamics of the end phase and the final negotiations?
I too wish to know what the chines had to say, as for the war crimes the one you mention is the most obvious and started 24/02/2022, but you know highly motivated and ideologically confused people are in command, for those following daily reports from different telegrams channels, the crack are binging to show, a place like Avdeevka been surround it, Ugledar was a difficult job but Avdeevka was imposible, not even leveling down everything, and now is basically encircle. I assume you will wait the end of Xi visit to post your piece, will wait until then
I don’t understand why Russia hasn’t already moved on Odessa and made the land bridge through Moldava. Could you shed some light on that? Thanks.
So here's my question; what comes next after Ukraine in this Proxy World War? Some are saying Taiwan, but that seem doubtful, the Taiwan Chinese don't seem like they're easily fooled to be used as cannon fodder.
Talk about kosovo normalisation
Excelente análisis Aleks, he aprendido mucho. Muchas gracias.
Rest assured that I am going to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian!
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Agree with all your points except your claim that Russia has or will suffer up to 100 k casualties.
Bernhardt at MoA has pointed to the amount of artillery fire sustained by Russia and argues that with that rate and because the Russian infantry doesn't directly engage with the Ukies, there should be at least a 10:1 ratio of casualties in favor of Russia.
Re: "Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are dead. Multiple times more are wounded. Hence, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian families have been torn apart, destroyed or displaced. The West can be sure that at least several generations of Ukrainians will hate Russia. The Russians will have to set up a very expensive program in the newly incorporated or occupied territories to integrate these people into Russian society. Scorched Earth."
Perhaps. But then again, perhaps not. I ask what you analysis of Chechnya is - where a comparable percentage of the population was killed in conflict with Russia. And yet there are Chechen troops volunteering to fight in Ukraine. There are plenty more examples: Vietnam - literally millions of Vietnamese died kicking out the French and then the Americans. They don't seem to hate Ho Chih Min. Afghanistan and the Taliban: how many Afghans died fighting the "democratic" Afghan government and US soldiers? The Taliban went from defeated to defeating the US occupation.
"Tens of thousands of Russians are dead or wounded. The toll could reach 100,000 before the war is over, if it hasn’t already, which in turn means millions of families that will resent every policy that involves spending to integrate the now-hated Ukrainians. Scorched Earth."
This I utterly disagree with. Literally tens of millions of Russians died in World War 2 - but the outcome wasn't a hated Stalin. Rather the opposite, in fact.
Put another way: Do the families of Americans who died fighting the "War on Terror" believe their sacrifices really were necessary or vital to America's security?
Now compare the situation with Russia and a NATO-ized Ukraine.
it is the aftermath of this war which we should all be worried about, and which you correctly show
(and which every thinking person would have been doing for the past 12 months...and going back over the past 10 years plus.
perhaps this was the aim of this war along along.