Update
Update
Arresting President Putin, Serbia’s national interests and the correction of a BMA mistake
Hello community,
As you maybe saw, we are releasing many updates these days.
Currently is a very important time and even though it puts huge stress on my time scheduling of work-life, I feel that it is important to get some thoughts out.
Unfortunately, this time around one of the reasons for my update is to admit an own mistake.
So, let’s start.
Arrest warrant against President Putin
The West issued an arrest warrant against President Putin. The West? In fact, it was the International Criminal Court (ICC). The funny thing is that the United States is not recognizing it but it is indeed controlling it. It is a useful tool against defeated countries. By this definition, winner countries can not commit war crimes. Well…
Obviously, they can’t. Otherwise the killing of at least a million civilians by direct or indirect action by the USA in the middle east, since 2001 would be a war crime.
But that’s not the point. This arrest warrant is a serious event! It is another nail in the “heartland with Europe” coffin and the tightening of the US grip over its European colonies. Why?
Marco Buschmann for instance said the other day that he would be obliged to arrest President Putin if he would enter Germany. And he is right. Germany recognizes the ICC and thereby is obliged to execute its decisions. There is nothing else that Mr. Buschmann could have said. Well, the intelligent thing would have been to say nothing at all.
In fact, it means, that traveling and doing international diplomacy on the top level just become much harder for President Putin. In fact, he will only be absolutely safely able to travel to friendly states, which would ignore the arrest warrant, even though they recognize the ICC.
A real arrest would perhaps only happen in the most subservient US colonies like the EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia etc. The other states most likely wouldn’t dare it. But diplomacy and communication are the number one priority for adversaries. To solve problems and sign agreements.
I want to add one more thing before I reach to the conclusion. How exactly does Marco Buschmann think that President Putin could set a foot on German soil? Would he rent a Lada and went on holidays to Germany and cross the borders by car? Would he be dropped by a parachute over Germany? Bullshit. And here we come to my conclusion.
Considering all the points mentioned above it is very simple. The US forbid their colonies and their leaders to conduct direct diplomacy with President Putin. At least on their own soil. It needs to be seen, whether this arrest warrant would prevent them to meet President Putin abroad as well. Let’s say on a neutral territory. That’s why I’m asking Marco Buschmann, how he imagines that President Putin would put a foot on German soil. He would first need to invite him. Which obviously under this new reality would be illegal.
Serbia’s national interests
There is much talk about that Serbia is about to betray Russia and its own interests in Kosovo. First of all, I’m a Serb. So, this is an existential question for us and for me.
Second, it is very well possible, that we will introduce sanctions against Russia. Maybe even somehow recognize Kosovo. And some other evil and odious stuff.
Okay. It’s okay.
Why? In a few days I will release my article about national interests, media and religions. There you will learn what national interests are. And I tell you one thing. Serbia’s national interest is to survive and preserve what we build up since we were bombed by NATO.
With every further step, Russia does to reach the Hungarian border, the pressure on Serbia will rise. In fact, I can’t imagine that Russia will reach the Hungarian border before Serbia falls diplomatically. Serbia and Hungary are the keys to put an end to NATO. That’s why NATO is doing what it can to prevent such a land bridge from happening. And if it happens, then, so the thinking, Serbia needs to be hostile to Russia.
That’s okay.
Serbian sanctions against Russia? It is like an ant, that tries to attack me. And I say that as a Serb. I’m sure, that the backdoor communication between Serbia and Russia is running hot, to prepare for that scenario. We Serbs are fully allied with Russia. The people. No agreements of pieces of paper can change anything. It will be coordinated and cleared by Russia.
We Serbs need to preserve our country until Russia ends its SMO. Treaties and sanctions can be rolled back very quickly.
If we don’t play that game then the following things would most likely happen:
Disconnection from SWIFT.
Cutting off Serbia from trade since all neighbors, except Bosnia are NATO members.
Closing the airspace around Serbia for Serbia.
Worst case scenario, which I don’t expect at all. A new bombing campaign.
I think our red lines must be the following:
Even if we are forced somehow to recognize Kosovo (would be for a very short period) we mustn’t allow harm to the Serbs in Kosovo. If that happens we still would need to intervene militarily and then everything described above would be activated.
No regime-change. If we get a puppet regime then it would mean in the worst-case scenario a civil war. Vucic is in a very uncomfortable position. He must do what the EU and NATO say and at the same time find the balance to satisfy the people, which hates EU and NATO and loves Russia, our brothers. Hence, he and his sovereign government should stay in place, as long as it takes that Russia reaches the Hungarian border.
No entry into NATO.
BMA Mistake
In the last BMA operational update, I stated, that the AFU will be defeated within 2-3 months. To throw around such numbers without explaining it was a major mistake and unprofessional. Please accept my apologies.
The BMA articles are consistent. We lined out our opinion already two times, consistently, how and when (if no major escalations by external players happen) we expect, that Ukraine will be defeated.
Here you can read, what we think about how the defeat of Ukraine could look like. Nothing changed, that’s constancy.
In our last operational update, we stated that the AFU will be most likely defeated within 2-3 months. With no further explanations. These are the explanations:
If no major escalation by the Western powers happens
We are talking about the AFU as a professional organization, which can organize heavy armed resistance against Russia. In fact, fight a land war against Russia. This should be over in 2-3 months.
The war will NOT end after the collapse of the professional Ukrainian army, as long as the West is not allowing the Ukrainian government to surrender.
The war can easily continue for many more months or even a year in this case. But no longer as a full-scale land war with heavy weapons but more some kind of insurgency warfare. And far worse —> The remaining nationalist battalions, which are the actual executive branch of the West within Ukraine to keep the Government in check, could decide to withdraw in big cities. Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov etc. Which would lead to siege and perhaps further destructions. For months/year(s).
Hence, I apologize for these 2-3 months without ANY explanation. It is indeed a big embarrassment.
Annunciation of my new major article
My new major article, Economics and Empires 3 is finished. It is currently being edited and will then be released some times this week. It is an important article. And very controversial 😊
Interviews going forward
I already announced the following BMA interviews.
Several more are in the planning until the end of the year. But I’m in contact with the most capable analysts out there. And the following are already agreed:
More are in planning.
I keep forgetting that you're a serb, but agree with you, even had a small spar with other serb, about your president, that he is corrupt, weak and many other things, my position was, look at a map, a see how serbia is surrounded by NATO, your president had keep your country alive, united, and out of harm way, that by himself is a huge achievement. other thing is how Vucic is all the time explaining things or at least I see it like that, no other leader in the "west" take the time to explain thing.
How will Russia get as far as the land bridge to Hungary? That’s across the entire country including over the Carpathians to Berehove and Tiszabecsi Határátkelőhely border with Hungary.