I keep forgetting that you're a serb, but agree with you, even had a small spar with other serb, about your president, that he is corrupt, weak and many other things, my position was, look at a map, a see how serbia is surrounded by NATO, your president had keep your country alive, united, and out of harm way, that by himself is a huge achievement. other thing is how Vucic is all the time explaining things or at least I see it like that, no other leader in the "west" take the time to explain thing.
How will Russia get as far as the land bridge to Hungary? That’s across the entire country including over the Carpathians to Berehove and Tiszabecsi Határátkelőhely border with Hungary.
By a voluntarily or forced capitulation of Ukraine.
Everyone seem to imagine that Ukraine will be able to fight for every inch of its country, which would require unlimited resources and manpower. Which Ukraine doesn't have. As soon as its military is defeated there is nothing else possible than a surrender. No surrender? No, organized resistance. Of course there could be some local insurgencies. But no organized armed and armored resistance. Many people seem to forget that this is no video game but the real live with real restrictions.
Although, everything would change if NATO would provide manpower.
If Ukraine collapses without surrender then anything could happen. But I can’t imagine Russia is going to govern land in the western Ukraine area that used to be Hungary or Romania and the citizens there are mostly Hungarians or Romanians. Most likely those areas will be given back to those countries and Russia could connect to that. Then it’s a land bridge but it’s a little closer in than the current border towns. That would make total sense.
I think the odds of Ukraine managing a country after they collapse is close to zero. I wouldn’t let them manage a bubble gum machine.
In the chernivtsi region in a village I used to live in most people there already have Romanian passports and a lot of them speak Romanian. I hope that part goes back to Romania.
In reality, it doesn’t matter who runs a gov as long as it gets us peace and stability. But we are not getting that with a puppet USG in Ukraine. Mostly because the neocons are in total control of the USA puppet gov known as the dementia administration. They want to destroy Russia and take it over. Every Ukraine gov since 1991 has been corrupt to the core and will sell anything including their country and it’s people for a few grains of illusory fiat money.
What scenario you think would unfold if nato decides to provide (more) man power? According to the news, President Vucic had stated that the simplified and sped up process of accepting Ukraine to EU will take place from June 2023, as Ukraine cannot win militarily on its own.
Makes no sense to take Ukraine into the eu. The country is 100%+ in debt. Will never be paid off because 80% of the GDP is now in Russian territory. There are no reforms. The eu is not going to spend 1 trillion rebuilding it. The country only has about 10-18 million people left. It’s nonsense which is what the eu and Ukraine specialize in.
I think they will bs their way to official boots on the ground. Poland is not building up a 300k army on Ukraine’s border for no reason. According to martin armstrong, nato thinks they will march this army into Moscow and take over russia. Which sounds completely insane. The direct route is through belarus. Going through Lithuania and Latvia will wreck both of those countries. Going through Ukraine is too long of a route. None of this makes any sense but what can we expect when the neocon crazies in DC are running the show.
A fine line between survival and national interests, walked by President Vucic.
On the arrest warrant: this may be a way to prevent any peace negotiations with Putin. Much like the peace process was derailed after the charges & warrants for Slobodan Milošević were created. Putin should wear the warrant with pride.
Western media have built Putin as real life Bond Villain for decades now, not sure what they think a useless ICC warrant could do to increase his Villain status. Are the Avengers on their way to arrest him now?
As a Serb, I absolutely agree with your analysis. Whatever you say about Vučić, he is leading this game fantastically so far. Much better than expected. With his initiative, he has already bought enough time for Serbia to avoid the worst scenario without upsetting Russian interests. Even if he starts to give in to the pressure, it will take too much time for the west. Simply for Serbia to start introducing sanctions, it would take more than a year for their implementation. Likewise for Kosovo. Until then, many things will be different.
I can't imagine different scenario than the one Alex suggested. I just refuse to believe that our president would be a traitor by his own will and premeditation. We are all traumatized, feel betrayed by series of "our" elites since WW2 and we lost too many consecutive battles in past several decades that we became distrustful and bitter, not able to have strong hope any more. Depression has become Serbian collective diagnosis. This all is taking too long already. Many of us don't have much necessary patience any more.
I think our compatriots should remember the verses of our national anthem because there is historical wisdom of our people forged within, so I will put them here since they give me much needed spiritual strength. We should keep patient and united as long as it takes, so help us God. Every Earthly evil has it's end. This one will also have it's own sometime, hopefully soon enough for us to witness the justice.
I read somewhere that the Serbian people, maybe primarily the young ones, have become Western oriented. That Western restaurants and lifestyle have replaced Russian ones. I hope this is not correct. Please let me know the truth. Thank you for all your excellent articles. I have each and every one you have written.
Thank you. Very kind comment. I appreciate it. I think there was a time where this was true. But at least since the beginning of the SMO we Serbs reunited behind Russia.
At least most of us. Like in the Russian sphere, we have also more then enough morons :-)
I've seen many analysis about the destruction of Ukraine's collected armies, realistically they are true, they are on their 4th or 5th one now, but that doesn't change the reality that the West keeps funding more troops (and their own western 'volunteers', how many Polish troops are in Ukraine now? 50k? 100K?) and they keep mounting offensive and defensive operations. Its like fighting a Hydra now, chop off one head, another takes its place. Perhaps Russia has once again misjudged in its mobilization efforts, they should have called up a much larger force I think.
We need to keep in mind that the real world has real restrictions. You can't say Ukraine has X soliders which are constantly replenished when they die and Russia has only Y which are out of the game when they die.
I did interesting programs about that topic with two top military experts on YouTube. Unfortunately I need to stay anonymous so I can't post it here.
Look... with every iteration of another defeated Ukrainian army the overall efficiency of the Ukrainian armed forces decreases. Because the initially top trained officers and experts died. To train new you need years. So you keep throwing men into the battle without much of training. You appoint officers randomly out of some smart soliders without training them to be an officer etc.
Moreover Ukraine is not a United nation. I would argue that most of the highly motivated and ideologically confused people are already "casualties" are currently in the process of becoming "casualties".
The people that are now forcefully mobilized need to be transferred handcuffed to the frontlines to not kill the own officers. They are being thrown into the trenches as human shields.
The most important concept, that I discussed in a video is the concept of unit cohesion. You have that if a formation (squads, companies, battalions, regiments, brigades, divisions, armies etc.) trained together in maneuver for months and years.
That is over. There is no unit cohesion left. Even with NATO supplied staff sergeants and junior officers. Who will listen to them if no common cohesion was achieved?
In fact, every further iteration, even with a NATO hodgepodge will be less effective and will suffer therefore higher casualty rates.
if I may add, Serbia is trying to strengthen the army. Vučić does it very well. Of course it will take time. what I want to say is that we are working on equipping the army and purchasing equipment. We need training time.б
Btw - i think Vucic is a traitor who agreed secretly to sign over kosovo years ago. The big problem is Serbia is the people are brave but not 1 leader is a patriot
I completely concur with your argument about Serbian national interest (although I am less optimistic about Vucic as a person), that's why I cannot wait for your article about defining national interest!
P.s. may I ask to transcribe/subtitle your interviews?
Thanks. I don't understand that entirely. Doesn't YouTube generate automatically subtitles? Can you explain me that a little more? Feel free to write me an email if you want. Or here, it doesn't matter.
I'm surprised Vucic is still in power. I've read a report of USAID/Soros investing over 1 billion dollars year to year, these past few years, for NGOs and pro-Western media in Serbia. That's a lot of money.
According to Nebojsa Malic, Vucic IS a West pawn (https://t.me/thenebulator/1050). About the rest of your point, I think the Serbs are so anti-NATO that it is impossible to move them.
I doubt it, they wouldn't need to spend all that money if they're already got a handle on the situation. Even uprising can be managed if they control the system fully, so far it doesn't seem to be the case, at least not in totality. If they were, like they did in Ukraine post 2014, they would switch gears towards just management and re-education efforts.
That said, GAE power is narrative control: if the population do not buy it, the Gvnmt is useless and I thinks Serbs simply do not buy it: shits that happen when GAE tries to bomb you to the stone age.
I keep forgetting that you're a serb, but agree with you, even had a small spar with other serb, about your president, that he is corrupt, weak and many other things, my position was, look at a map, a see how serbia is surrounded by NATO, your president had keep your country alive, united, and out of harm way, that by himself is a huge achievement. other thing is how Vucic is all the time explaining things or at least I see it like that, no other leader in the "west" take the time to explain thing.
You're 100% right.
How will Russia get as far as the land bridge to Hungary? That’s across the entire country including over the Carpathians to Berehove and Tiszabecsi Határátkelőhely border with Hungary.
By a voluntarily or forced capitulation of Ukraine.
Everyone seem to imagine that Ukraine will be able to fight for every inch of its country, which would require unlimited resources and manpower. Which Ukraine doesn't have. As soon as its military is defeated there is nothing else possible than a surrender. No surrender? No, organized resistance. Of course there could be some local insurgencies. But no organized armed and armored resistance. Many people seem to forget that this is no video game but the real live with real restrictions.
Although, everything would change if NATO would provide manpower.
If Ukraine collapses without surrender then anything could happen. But I can’t imagine Russia is going to govern land in the western Ukraine area that used to be Hungary or Romania and the citizens there are mostly Hungarians or Romanians. Most likely those areas will be given back to those countries and Russia could connect to that. Then it’s a land bridge but it’s a little closer in than the current border towns. That would make total sense.
I think the odds of Ukraine managing a country after they collapse is close to zero. I wouldn’t let them manage a bubble gum machine.
Agree🤣👍
In the chernivtsi region in a village I used to live in most people there already have Romanian passports and a lot of them speak Romanian. I hope that part goes back to Romania.
I also hope for the best possible solution for the people. What is the best solution? I don't know...
Peace and stability.
In reality, it doesn’t matter who runs a gov as long as it gets us peace and stability. But we are not getting that with a puppet USG in Ukraine. Mostly because the neocons are in total control of the USA puppet gov known as the dementia administration. They want to destroy Russia and take it over. Every Ukraine gov since 1991 has been corrupt to the core and will sell anything including their country and it’s people for a few grains of illusory fiat money.
That's right.
What scenario you think would unfold if nato decides to provide (more) man power? According to the news, President Vucic had stated that the simplified and sped up process of accepting Ukraine to EU will take place from June 2023, as Ukraine cannot win militarily on its own.
Makes no sense to take Ukraine into the eu. The country is 100%+ in debt. Will never be paid off because 80% of the GDP is now in Russian territory. There are no reforms. The eu is not going to spend 1 trillion rebuilding it. The country only has about 10-18 million people left. It’s nonsense which is what the eu and Ukraine specialize in.
Absolutely agree. I see it only as a desperate move to have NATO boots on the ground. Also Mr. Vucic doesn't seem to be a man who would spread bs.
I think they will bs their way to official boots on the ground. Poland is not building up a 300k army on Ukraine’s border for no reason. According to martin armstrong, nato thinks they will march this army into Moscow and take over russia. Which sounds completely insane. The direct route is through belarus. Going through Lithuania and Latvia will wreck both of those countries. Going through Ukraine is too long of a route. None of this makes any sense but what can we expect when the neocon crazies in DC are running the show.
A fine line between survival and national interests, walked by President Vucic.
On the arrest warrant: this may be a way to prevent any peace negotiations with Putin. Much like the peace process was derailed after the charges & warrants for Slobodan Milošević were created. Putin should wear the warrant with pride.
Cheers from Cheyenne!
Western media have built Putin as real life Bond Villain for decades now, not sure what they think a useless ICC warrant could do to increase his Villain status. Are the Avengers on their way to arrest him now?
As a Serb, I absolutely agree with your analysis. Whatever you say about Vučić, he is leading this game fantastically so far. Much better than expected. With his initiative, he has already bought enough time for Serbia to avoid the worst scenario without upsetting Russian interests. Even if he starts to give in to the pressure, it will take too much time for the west. Simply for Serbia to start introducing sanctions, it would take more than a year for their implementation. Likewise for Kosovo. Until then, many things will be different.
I absolutely agree, as well.
I can't imagine different scenario than the one Alex suggested. I just refuse to believe that our president would be a traitor by his own will and premeditation. We are all traumatized, feel betrayed by series of "our" elites since WW2 and we lost too many consecutive battles in past several decades that we became distrustful and bitter, not able to have strong hope any more. Depression has become Serbian collective diagnosis. This all is taking too long already. Many of us don't have much necessary patience any more.
I think our compatriots should remember the verses of our national anthem because there is historical wisdom of our people forged within, so I will put them here since they give me much needed spiritual strength. We should keep patient and united as long as it takes, so help us God. Every Earthly evil has it's end. This one will also have it's own sometime, hopefully soon enough for us to witness the justice.
"Боже правде, ти што спасе
од пропасти досад нас,
чуј и одсад наше гласе
и од сад нам буди спас.
Моћном руком води, брани
будућности српске брод,
Боже спаси, Боже храни,
српске земље, српски род!
Сложи српску браћу драгу
на свак дичан славан рад,
слога биће пораз врагу
а најјачи српству град.
Нек на српској блиста грани
братске слоге знатан плод,
Боже спаси, Боже храни
српске земље, српски род!
Нек на српско ведро чело
твог не падне гнева гром
Благослови Србу село
поље, њиву, град и дом!
Кад наступе борбе дани
к' победи му води ход
Боже спаси, Боже храни
српске земље, српски род!
Из мрачнога сину гроба
српске славе нови сјај
настало је ново доба
Нову срећу, Боже дај!
Отаџбину српску брани
пет вековне борбе плод
Боже спаси, Боже храни
моли ти се српски род!"
Love to see my anthem here. Thanks! Hvala.
Grazie per il tuo prezioso lavoro.👍👍👍👍
Grazie👍
Thanks for shred of optimism 🙂
😆👍
I read somewhere that the Serbian people, maybe primarily the young ones, have become Western oriented. That Western restaurants and lifestyle have replaced Russian ones. I hope this is not correct. Please let me know the truth. Thank you for all your excellent articles. I have each and every one you have written.
Thank you. Very kind comment. I appreciate it. I think there was a time where this was true. But at least since the beginning of the SMO we Serbs reunited behind Russia.
At least most of us. Like in the Russian sphere, we have also more then enough morons :-)
I've seen many analysis about the destruction of Ukraine's collected armies, realistically they are true, they are on their 4th or 5th one now, but that doesn't change the reality that the West keeps funding more troops (and their own western 'volunteers', how many Polish troops are in Ukraine now? 50k? 100K?) and they keep mounting offensive and defensive operations. Its like fighting a Hydra now, chop off one head, another takes its place. Perhaps Russia has once again misjudged in its mobilization efforts, they should have called up a much larger force I think.
It's good to think about such topics.
We need to keep in mind that the real world has real restrictions. You can't say Ukraine has X soliders which are constantly replenished when they die and Russia has only Y which are out of the game when they die.
I did interesting programs about that topic with two top military experts on YouTube. Unfortunately I need to stay anonymous so I can't post it here.
Look... with every iteration of another defeated Ukrainian army the overall efficiency of the Ukrainian armed forces decreases. Because the initially top trained officers and experts died. To train new you need years. So you keep throwing men into the battle without much of training. You appoint officers randomly out of some smart soliders without training them to be an officer etc.
Moreover Ukraine is not a United nation. I would argue that most of the highly motivated and ideologically confused people are already "casualties" are currently in the process of becoming "casualties".
The people that are now forcefully mobilized need to be transferred handcuffed to the frontlines to not kill the own officers. They are being thrown into the trenches as human shields.
The most important concept, that I discussed in a video is the concept of unit cohesion. You have that if a formation (squads, companies, battalions, regiments, brigades, divisions, armies etc.) trained together in maneuver for months and years.
That is over. There is no unit cohesion left. Even with NATO supplied staff sergeants and junior officers. Who will listen to them if no common cohesion was achieved?
In fact, every further iteration, even with a NATO hodgepodge will be less effective and will suffer therefore higher casualty rates.
I hope I could explain it understandable...
Glory to Mother Russia, and our Serbian Brothers💙🇷🇺❤️🇷🇸💙
if I may add, Serbia is trying to strengthen the army. Vučić does it very well. Of course it will take time. what I want to say is that we are working on equipping the army and purchasing equipment. We need training time.б
Great article Aleks.
Btw - i think Vucic is a traitor who agreed secretly to sign over kosovo years ago. The big problem is Serbia is the people are brave but not 1 leader is a patriot
I completely concur with your argument about Serbian national interest (although I am less optimistic about Vucic as a person), that's why I cannot wait for your article about defining national interest!
P.s. may I ask to transcribe/subtitle your interviews?
Thanks. I don't understand that entirely. Doesn't YouTube generate automatically subtitles? Can you explain me that a little more? Feel free to write me an email if you want. Or here, it doesn't matter.
Hi! YT subs are bad if you are not English mother-tongue. I do not know if it is possible to correct the ones that YT auto-generates or else.
I'm open for suggestions.
I have no suggestions, hope someone better than me can help us!
I'm surprised Vucic is still in power. I've read a report of USAID/Soros investing over 1 billion dollars year to year, these past few years, for NGOs and pro-Western media in Serbia. That's a lot of money.
According to Nebojsa Malic, Vucic IS a West pawn (https://t.me/thenebulator/1050). About the rest of your point, I think the Serbs are so anti-NATO that it is impossible to move them.
Vucic is a Serbian nationalist which is forced to play the western game to not transform Serbia into North Korea. It is simple as that.
At least as long as we don't have a landbridge to Russia.
Hope so! What do you think of The Nebojsa Malic's opinion on Vucic?
I doubt it, they wouldn't need to spend all that money if they're already got a handle on the situation. Even uprising can be managed if they control the system fully, so far it doesn't seem to be the case, at least not in totality. If they were, like they did in Ukraine post 2014, they would switch gears towards just management and re-education efforts.
The point is not mine, but Nebojsa Malic's.
That said, GAE power is narrative control: if the population do not buy it, the Gvnmt is useless and I thinks Serbs simply do not buy it: shits that happen when GAE tries to bomb you to the stone age.