As usual, a fine analysis and a pleasure to read and learn.
Without firmly agreeing or disagreeing, however, I must say that I would at least question a couple of points made. First, Russia has been thinking about this very likely since at least 2007 when Putin made his wonderful Munich speech, an indication to me that the Russians had already started preparing for the worst and were confident enough at that point in their re-building project to at last stand and speak truth to power. Since then, they have been developing new weapons, technology and stores of ammunition, I suspect, in great quantities since at least a decade, or perhaps even two. And since Feb 2022, they have gone into 24/7 mode at their factories.
Secondly, I too believe that it is unlikely that Germans or any other major power in the West will declare martial law and convert to a wartime economy. Why? Three main reasons. First they have deployed most all their heavy industrial capacity to other countries, primarily in the Far East. To hope to build up to the capacity necessary for World War III, it would take literally at least a decade, I suspect. Secondly, to declare martial law is an extreme action that absolutely requires the support of the population and the political will to follow it through. The West can meet neither of these conditions as their populations at this point, aside from a direct Russian invasion, want business-as-usual to resume as soon as possible - they don't really believe in the need for war against a power like Russia, certainly not for the likes of Ukraine. Also, the West is politically weak, having both weak, impotent leadership and divisive ruling classes not able to agree on such matters at all. Thirdly, the West simply does not have the manpower, not even the potential, to field an army capable of defeating a Russian 'total war' action, nor are their military leadership capable of conducting such a war strategically/operationally/tactically, as most of their generals are committed bureaucrats looking to a prosperous retirement package and have never been in a war they have won or against a peer power like Russia or China.
And there is likely a fourth reason - economics. Europe no longer has an economy based on low energy costs. It would be massively expensive to convert to a war economy in today's market - and it is at least questionable whether, under war conditions, their suppliers, who are mostly friendly to Russia (or at least see the practicality of staying at least neutral in such a stand-off - if neutrality would be even possible at that point), might even hike their prices under market pressure or refuse to supply them at all, fearing a Russian advantage in the long-term.
Sorry to be so wordy. I probably could have done better.
I believe that the Russians have been preparing for war in Ukraine since at least 2014. That gave them at least 8 years to ramp up and expand material production. War supplies by Iran, China, etc. could be seen as an offering of support, not so much increasing supplies. Two other points in regards to preparation: the wonder weapons unveiled in 2018, most now in serial production; the other being the successful economic parries Russia put forth. As the milestones are being achieved in this current phase, it makes sense to see a reduction of artillery/missile/drone strikes from 60k to 20k per day (still WOW!). The reduction will enable for the resupply of munitions closer to the front lines, in time for the next operation.
About a week ago, Western media reported a massive defeat with 1500 Russian casualties. Shortly after, the discussion stopped. What is your assessment of the accuracy of that information?
As usual, a fine analysis and a pleasure to read and learn.
Without firmly agreeing or disagreeing, however, I must say that I would at least question a couple of points made. First, Russia has been thinking about this very likely since at least 2007 when Putin made his wonderful Munich speech, an indication to me that the Russians had already started preparing for the worst and were confident enough at that point in their re-building project to at last stand and speak truth to power. Since then, they have been developing new weapons, technology and stores of ammunition, I suspect, in great quantities since at least a decade, or perhaps even two. And since Feb 2022, they have gone into 24/7 mode at their factories.
Secondly, I too believe that it is unlikely that Germans or any other major power in the West will declare martial law and convert to a wartime economy. Why? Three main reasons. First they have deployed most all their heavy industrial capacity to other countries, primarily in the Far East. To hope to build up to the capacity necessary for World War III, it would take literally at least a decade, I suspect. Secondly, to declare martial law is an extreme action that absolutely requires the support of the population and the political will to follow it through. The West can meet neither of these conditions as their populations at this point, aside from a direct Russian invasion, want business-as-usual to resume as soon as possible - they don't really believe in the need for war against a power like Russia, certainly not for the likes of Ukraine. Also, the West is politically weak, having both weak, impotent leadership and divisive ruling classes not able to agree on such matters at all. Thirdly, the West simply does not have the manpower, not even the potential, to field an army capable of defeating a Russian 'total war' action, nor are their military leadership capable of conducting such a war strategically/operationally/tactically, as most of their generals are committed bureaucrats looking to a prosperous retirement package and have never been in a war they have won or against a peer power like Russia or China.
And there is likely a fourth reason - economics. Europe no longer has an economy based on low energy costs. It would be massively expensive to convert to a war economy in today's market - and it is at least questionable whether, under war conditions, their suppliers, who are mostly friendly to Russia (or at least see the practicality of staying at least neutral in such a stand-off - if neutrality would be even possible at that point), might even hike their prices under market pressure or refuse to supply them at all, fearing a Russian advantage in the long-term.
Sorry to be so wordy. I probably could have done better.
Stay the course💙🇷🇺❤️
I believe that the Russians have been preparing for war in Ukraine since at least 2014. That gave them at least 8 years to ramp up and expand material production. War supplies by Iran, China, etc. could be seen as an offering of support, not so much increasing supplies. Two other points in regards to preparation: the wonder weapons unveiled in 2018, most now in serial production; the other being the successful economic parries Russia put forth. As the milestones are being achieved in this current phase, it makes sense to see a reduction of artillery/missile/drone strikes from 60k to 20k per day (still WOW!). The reduction will enable for the resupply of munitions closer to the front lines, in time for the next operation.
Cheers from Cheyenne!
What is your opinion, brother, would any new developments like Nazi attack on Transnistria change the pace of Russian war operations?
About a week ago, Western media reported a massive defeat with 1500 Russian casualties. Shortly after, the discussion stopped. What is your assessment of the accuracy of that information?