I agree with most of what you write, but I will add a more political interpretation.
My thesis: Prigozhin is been prepared for a political role in the russian political system ("The system").
The "system" is centered around Putin (and the United Russia party); being at the center, Putin and the party must be flanked by more radical parties and leaders, which form the so-called "systemic opposition". At the left there is the communist party leaded by Zyuganov, at the right there is the lib-dem party that was leaded by Zhirinovsky.
However, Zhirinovsky died just a year ego (6 April), leaving a void in the "system": none of his successors (in the libdem party) can replace him.
Let's consider this about Prigozhin: a man that until a year ago was unknown to most russians, and today is probably the most famous man in Russia after Putin. It was around a year ago that Prigozhin started to become a public figure, after for many years he tried to avoid the public arena, negating any link to Wagner (he was probablly more famous in the West, because western media have been obsessed with him). Suddenly he started to appear in videos recruiting prisoners for Wagner (mid September), then he started to talk with media, he admitted that he was the founder of Wagner (he isn't, even if he has been part of Wagner from the start), he even started a telegram channel to answer journalists' questions. And in half a year he has become the second most famous russian.
It seems unlikely to me that all of this is happening by chance, outside (or against) the "system". More likely is that Prigozhin has been chosen to play a role in the system, akin to that played by Zhirinovsky for many years (or even a larger role). There is a part of russian society that thinks that the Kremlin is too soft, the army too corrupt, the generals too incompent, the elite too western-loving. A (not small) part of society that could be or become dangerous to the Kremlin system. Prigozhin's role seems to be to channel this "turbo-patriot" component of the russian society into a "systemic opposition" that works in concert with Putin and the Kremlin. So Prigozhin has been chosen and groomed for this role, and his every move seems designed to make him the next leader (of the radical right).
At least, this is a scenario that makes some sense for me.
My two cents... if I may. All based on this question.
Does that video would be seen from VSU soldiers and civilians?
If yes, what about this possibility? Like Christmas 1916 truce... or Russia 1917...
Imagine You are a VSU soldier, unwittingly at the front and dreading for You life, and You know your bosses dont' give a s... about your life.
You see the boss of Your enemy mad with his upper top echelons because he lost 30 men in a day, and You know you probably will be soon one of the hundreds daily deads from Your side.
And You think that for your own bosses you are only meat for the grinder...
Demoralizing? Enraging? willing to shoot your own captain?...
My point is... what better than trying to start a revolt in the enemy army some short time before an attack?
Wouldn't the souls of the dead soldiers be proud of this?
You remember the "wunderwaffe" deads army under the mountains in LOTR?
I'm no military but... maybe Prigozhin is not that mad...
Thank you Aleks! I bet on maskirovka. Wagner is about to finish his hard work and of course he has to reorganize, so Prigozhin decides to bluff the last bit, whatever he wins is welcome. And the negative implications of the speech are not so serious, the Russians know Prigozhin showman, although the show seems quite improvised... One detail, shortly after the Prigozhin´s crazy speech Kadirov is already offering his relief, but this is not a football game "exchange one player for another", this has to be something already planned in advance. I just saw an order (document) signed to cede the positions to the Chechens on May 10 which is when Prigozhin says "we will exhaust our combat potential..." (should he says "Bakhmut will be taken, to clean up?) After a few hours, Prigozhin says that the Russian ministry "has already promised to give them as much ammunition as necessary" (?????) All this is on various channels today, (I saw it on Intel Slava Z) On the other hand, an enemy of Russia called Podolyak has publicly opined that Prigozhin's message is a lie, an attempt to provoke and lead the Nazis into a trap.
So I think it's maskirovka, and it can work, why not? But it is just my opinion...
You may wish to make a tiny typo/grammatical correction to the last full paragraph:
'If he screwed indeed things up then he will now suffer the consequences. I don’t think about death or such things. He did a lot for Russia. But something that might hurt his ego a lot. I don’t want to speculate here.'
I know. Usually Piquet edit my articles. But this time I decided to publish without editing because I considered it crucial to get the message out ASAP since the topic is very hot.
Piquet will re edit it as soon as he can. And I assume that I will not publish unedited articles any more. Too many people are reading them in the meanwhile...
It was the one and only tiny grammatical glitch I found. I make tons of them myself so I wouldn't worry. I've proofread whole books so I can tell you, you did very well!
I had discounted Prigozhin''s rant being a ruse but I am now beginning to change my mind slightly. Suppose the Russian high command caught wind of an imminent withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Artemovsk and formulated a plan for the Wagners to look weak to encourage Kiev to reverse this intent and instead send in more troops to be ground down?
Certainly the virulence of Prigozhin's words seems to mitigate against this, but still...
A very interesting piece much of which I agree with.
I suspect in this context you will be interested to hear of a long and detailed email received by Alexander Mercouris on Prigozhin and Wagner, particularly relating to how Wagner was formed by two Russian state agencies.
Actually, I wanted to post the whole thing. But I can discuss it, just as easily with long quotes and links. It is an excellent article. As I said, not just "opinion" but very good "analysis". Well-done indeed, Aleks.
Aleks , do you read Rolo from Slavland Chronicles ? Thanks for your report , I greatly respect . Maybe Rolo is a shock writer , I found his blog from this morning disturbing & with an interesting analysis from Pepe Escobar as well on this topic . Prayers & thoughts for Gonzalo Lira too .
I think his tirade was due to temporary insanity, more like acute PTSD with additional factors such as:
1. There was probably some weapons shortage, since Russian forces have significantly increased in number and need to be adequately provided with weapons and logistics as a priority (not 70% shortage as he mentioned) and because of the sudden surge by Ukraine forces with more than expected casualties taken by Wagner.
2. He deeply cares about his soldiers. In civilian life also, he probably genuinely care about his employees, that may be one of the reasons that he is a successful businessman and why Putin trusts him. I personally believe that Putin deeply care about his country and citizens.
3. Even though he is not a professional soldier, he spends a lot of time at frontline, contributing to PTSD (This was mentioned by other analysts).
4. Recently Chechen forces leader mentioned that he would like to take his army private and fight the enemy Internationally. That means he would be a competition for Wagner and have to share the money and resources coming from the top. This may be another reason that he doesn’t like higher echelon of Russian Armed forces.
5. He probably heard that Wagner would be replaced by Chechen’s and he doesn’t want to share the Glory with Chechens, having finished 90% of the job which was very hard on him and the soldiers.
The reason it is insanity, not entirely drama is that he crossed red lines in naming and cursing the top brass who are closest to Putin and showing dead soldiers on camera.
Soon after “losing it” he probably realized what he did and profusely apologized to the top brass personally. His rhetoric completely changed next day. I still think that he will pay a price eventually appropriate to his behavior and Chechen forces will be the beneficiaries.
Thank You, Aleks. This is also my reading, that Prigozhin has been playing a certain role for some desired effect. It is likely that a lot of this is for public consumption in Russia, and may reflect some internal power disagreements (not yet struggle?).
What about the US having such good internal intelligence on the Russian military?
I agree with most of what you write, but I will add a more political interpretation.
My thesis: Prigozhin is been prepared for a political role in the russian political system ("The system").
The "system" is centered around Putin (and the United Russia party); being at the center, Putin and the party must be flanked by more radical parties and leaders, which form the so-called "systemic opposition". At the left there is the communist party leaded by Zyuganov, at the right there is the lib-dem party that was leaded by Zhirinovsky.
However, Zhirinovsky died just a year ego (6 April), leaving a void in the "system": none of his successors (in the libdem party) can replace him.
Let's consider this about Prigozhin: a man that until a year ago was unknown to most russians, and today is probably the most famous man in Russia after Putin. It was around a year ago that Prigozhin started to become a public figure, after for many years he tried to avoid the public arena, negating any link to Wagner (he was probablly more famous in the West, because western media have been obsessed with him). Suddenly he started to appear in videos recruiting prisoners for Wagner (mid September), then he started to talk with media, he admitted that he was the founder of Wagner (he isn't, even if he has been part of Wagner from the start), he even started a telegram channel to answer journalists' questions. And in half a year he has become the second most famous russian.
It seems unlikely to me that all of this is happening by chance, outside (or against) the "system". More likely is that Prigozhin has been chosen to play a role in the system, akin to that played by Zhirinovsky for many years (or even a larger role). There is a part of russian society that thinks that the Kremlin is too soft, the army too corrupt, the generals too incompent, the elite too western-loving. A (not small) part of society that could be or become dangerous to the Kremlin system. Prigozhin's role seems to be to channel this "turbo-patriot" component of the russian society into a "systemic opposition" that works in concert with Putin and the Kremlin. So Prigozhin has been chosen and groomed for this role, and his every move seems designed to make him the next leader (of the radical right).
At least, this is a scenario that makes some sense for me.
This is the most interesting theory I've seen and it makes quite a lot of sense.
My two cents... if I may. All based on this question.
Does that video would be seen from VSU soldiers and civilians?
If yes, what about this possibility? Like Christmas 1916 truce... or Russia 1917...
Imagine You are a VSU soldier, unwittingly at the front and dreading for You life, and You know your bosses dont' give a s... about your life.
You see the boss of Your enemy mad with his upper top echelons because he lost 30 men in a day, and You know you probably will be soon one of the hundreds daily deads from Your side.
And You think that for your own bosses you are only meat for the grinder...
Demoralizing? Enraging? willing to shoot your own captain?...
My point is... what better than trying to start a revolt in the enemy army some short time before an attack?
Wouldn't the souls of the dead soldiers be proud of this?
You remember the "wunderwaffe" deads army under the mountains in LOTR?
I'm no military but... maybe Prigozhin is not that mad...
Also a valid point.
Thanks for this.
It is a good point, indeed.
I worry though, how this pr stunt might impact russian soldiers and their moral.
Why worry? They see that one (or more) of their bosses publicly care about them, sure more than the enemy ones, so I would be proud.
Again, I'm not mil so I don't know exactly what they think
Thank you Aleks! I bet on maskirovka. Wagner is about to finish his hard work and of course he has to reorganize, so Prigozhin decides to bluff the last bit, whatever he wins is welcome. And the negative implications of the speech are not so serious, the Russians know Prigozhin showman, although the show seems quite improvised... One detail, shortly after the Prigozhin´s crazy speech Kadirov is already offering his relief, but this is not a football game "exchange one player for another", this has to be something already planned in advance. I just saw an order (document) signed to cede the positions to the Chechens on May 10 which is when Prigozhin says "we will exhaust our combat potential..." (should he says "Bakhmut will be taken, to clean up?) After a few hours, Prigozhin says that the Russian ministry "has already promised to give them as much ammunition as necessary" (?????) All this is on various channels today, (I saw it on Intel Slava Z) On the other hand, an enemy of Russia called Podolyak has publicly opined that Prigozhin's message is a lie, an attempt to provoke and lead the Nazis into a trap.
So I think it's maskirovka, and it can work, why not? But it is just my opinion...
Absolutely possible 👍
Glory to Mother Russia❤️🇷🇺💙 The Spiritual Revolution is here, carry on my friends, God will guide 💙🇷🇺❤️
Hi Aleks,
Julian from News Forensics here. I was working on a similar article.
I wonder if I could cross post yours, which is very good.
I have to say that this not just an "opinion" piece -- it is also very good analysis.
The piece agrees with similar "opinions" voiced elsewhere by Mercouris and Larry Johnson -- and also John Helmer.
In any case, I agree completely.
Julian Macfarlane
Thank you👍
Please, feel free to link it.
Great article. Maskirovka for sure.
Per Intel Slava, Prigozhin now says he's been assured Wagner will get everything they need & that Surovikin is in charge.
I lean toward Maskirovka. We've seen this act several times before, & each time Prigozhin escalates the vitriol.
I expect they will be finished by the 10th with chechens coming for any final cleanup & to secure it, while Wagner will get well-earned r&r.
You may wish to make a tiny typo/grammatical correction to the last full paragraph:
'If he screwed indeed things up then he will now suffer the consequences. I don’t think about death or such things. He did a lot for Russia. But something that might hurt his ego a lot. I don’t want to speculate here.'
To this:
'If he indeed screwed things up...
I know. Usually Piquet edit my articles. But this time I decided to publish without editing because I considered it crucial to get the message out ASAP since the topic is very hot.
Piquet will re edit it as soon as he can. And I assume that I will not publish unedited articles any more. Too many people are reading them in the meanwhile...
It was the one and only tiny grammatical glitch I found. I make tons of them myself so I wouldn't worry. I've proofread whole books so I can tell you, you did very well!
I had discounted Prigozhin''s rant being a ruse but I am now beginning to change my mind slightly. Suppose the Russian high command caught wind of an imminent withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Artemovsk and formulated a plan for the Wagners to look weak to encourage Kiev to reverse this intent and instead send in more troops to be ground down?
Certainly the virulence of Prigozhin's words seems to mitigate against this, but still...
A very interesting piece much of which I agree with.
I suspect in this context you will be interested to hear of a long and detailed email received by Alexander Mercouris on Prigozhin and Wagner, particularly relating to how Wagner was formed by two Russian state agencies.
https://youtu.be/TEWlVpKd_To
Thank You for this, i was so fed up with all those assumptions and tiresome analysis from people I`ve expected better.
This is such an excellent article. I am researching points you have made now. And will use it as a base for another article.
I'm looking forward to read it :)
Actually, I wanted to post the whole thing. But I can discuss it, just as easily with long quotes and links. It is an excellent article. As I said, not just "opinion" but very good "analysis". Well-done indeed, Aleks.
Hi Julian,
you can work with the text however you like ;)
Thank you for the compliment, I always appreciate it.
Keep up your good work.
Aleks , do you read Rolo from Slavland Chronicles ? Thanks for your report , I greatly respect . Maybe Rolo is a shock writer , I found his blog from this morning disturbing & with an interesting analysis from Pepe Escobar as well on this topic . Prayers & thoughts for Gonzalo Lira too .
I think his tirade was due to temporary insanity, more like acute PTSD with additional factors such as:
1. There was probably some weapons shortage, since Russian forces have significantly increased in number and need to be adequately provided with weapons and logistics as a priority (not 70% shortage as he mentioned) and because of the sudden surge by Ukraine forces with more than expected casualties taken by Wagner.
2. He deeply cares about his soldiers. In civilian life also, he probably genuinely care about his employees, that may be one of the reasons that he is a successful businessman and why Putin trusts him. I personally believe that Putin deeply care about his country and citizens.
3. Even though he is not a professional soldier, he spends a lot of time at frontline, contributing to PTSD (This was mentioned by other analysts).
4. Recently Chechen forces leader mentioned that he would like to take his army private and fight the enemy Internationally. That means he would be a competition for Wagner and have to share the money and resources coming from the top. This may be another reason that he doesn’t like higher echelon of Russian Armed forces.
5. He probably heard that Wagner would be replaced by Chechen’s and he doesn’t want to share the Glory with Chechens, having finished 90% of the job which was very hard on him and the soldiers.
The reason it is insanity, not entirely drama is that he crossed red lines in naming and cursing the top brass who are closest to Putin and showing dead soldiers on camera.
Soon after “losing it” he probably realized what he did and profusely apologized to the top brass personally. His rhetoric completely changed next day. I still think that he will pay a price eventually appropriate to his behavior and Chechen forces will be the beneficiaries.
Thank You, Aleks. This is also my reading, that Prigozhin has been playing a certain role for some desired effect. It is likely that a lot of this is for public consumption in Russia, and may reflect some internal power disagreements (not yet struggle?).
What about the US having such good internal intelligence on the Russian military?
That must provoke discomfort.