Modeling and FEM is fine. But once upon a while one needs to check and compare with the experiment (reality). I don't know, how much there is scalability in ground penetration depending on speed. I'd suppose not so much. To make an experiment how an Oreshnik projectile works, you need to have one first. That limits the circle of capable parties to do such experiments to a single one.
Interesting thought that the projectiles may help each other. The pressure waves should result in a kind of ground liquifaction, which is a common thing in geological processes. A second warhead could than easier move through liquified ground making way for the next one to go even deeper.
The first Kinzhal was said to have hit the former USSR bunker for nuclear weapons near Delyatin. That was in spring of 2022. No damage evaluation has since reached the public.
I guess Oreshnik was not available then, but what a pity the command bunker(s) was not taken out on Day 1 of the SMO. I never advocate death and destruction; but beheading the snake on Day 1 might have saved many lives and much misery? 20/20 hindsight?
Now that the Ukrainian armed forces are so weakened, an attack on the bunker at this stage in the SMO would hopefully be the coup de grace?
Good point; but taking out the command center might have been beneficial for Russia and might have helped Russia to take Kiev at the outset. We will never know!
That was not Russia's goal. They did not wanted to escalate things. The goal on Day 1 of the SMO was to push Ukraine to the negotiating table. If you want to negotiate, you do not take out the command structure.
There were significant day-1 strikes against hardened control targets, especially air defense. Those were a substantial help in the first few days and likely contributed to Russia's penetrating movements.
The military and security services are designed to accommodate a level of decapitation, however, so once reorganized and communication re-established, business has carried on. Other, supposedly immune, bunker locations have been destroyed by hypersonics, with the loss of their Western satraps inside. Oreshnik simply steps things up a notch or two, with application of the "new physical principles" Putin has alluded in his speeches.
It's worth a final repeat, however, that deep penetration is nearly useless without extremely high precision. Any idiot can achieve hypersonic impact--just drop a rock from space, but to apply that hypersonic impact and act within the zone of effectiveness to destroy the target is the greatest step forward Oreshnik appears to offer.
Thank you for your kind offer. I have a little nest-egg that will see me through. I am almost 75. My 3 kids are off my hands and they don't need me. Life is cheap and comfortable by the Red Sea in Egypt. A lot cheaper and more comfortable for me than Monaco. Frankly, if I had a $100,000 windfall, it would not change my lifestyle.
Anyone listening to Direct Line this morning? That's Putin's annual 4-hour open Q&A with world media and Russian citizens.
In discussing the advanced capabilities of Russia's new Oreshnik hypersonic missile, he made a challenge to NATO:
Select a target in Ukraine and then apply all NATO air defense systems currently in Romania and Poland to protect it to see if they can shoot down an Oreshnik. The results will be for all the world to see.
Thank you again, Mike for masterful organization of technical detail into a readily understandable composition. It looks like Russia wants to wait for Trump and build Oreshniks for the moment.
The Brits employed the new Maxim Gun in Africa to enforce their colonial regime. Rothschild was one of the big money guys involved in the development and application of the new weapon. It was devastating when used in Rhodesia (Zimbabwe)against the tribes there(cf First Matabele War, Oct 25, 1893.) Tribesmen wielding spears had no answer for the industrial scale killing of the Maxim Gun. Technology wins.
<<The Maxim-Nordenfelt Guns and Ammunition Company was the result of a takeover by Hiram Maxim of Thorsten Nordenfelt's Nordenfelt Guns and Ammunition Company in 1888. Rothschild issued £1.9 million (1888) (equivalent to £264.26 million or US$328.46 million in 2023)[1] worth of shares to finance the merger. Nathan Rothschild retained a substantial shareholding in the new Maxim-Nordenfelt combine and ‘exerted a direct influence over its management’.[2] >>
-Wikipedia-
While the Maxim Gun benefited the imperial regime in Africa, the new Russian weapon could also be potentially understood now as the ANTI-IMPERIAL weapon, employed to disrupt (end?) the centuries old Western Imperialism. All wars are banker wars and the financial interests working against the Russians are just the same old, same old. Looking at you England and U$$A. Hoping here that the Russians with their allies can turn back these same, long-in-the-tooth, murderous imperialists. Technology...fingers crossed.
This is again a superb article, thank you so much. I now understand much more about the huge task of hitting that bunker - what it takes, how complex such a bunker is and all the technical detail. It is definitely a target Nr.1, because of its menacing role. NATO commanders there plus other important political and military people in the bunker surely need to be destroyed. Hopefully, Zelensky and co. will be inside and get destroyed, too.
Excellent, meaningful and meticulous analysis. As an engineer with almost similar experience in engineering as yours I really appreciated it. It would be very interesting to have a similar analysis for another possible NATO target in Ramstein, Germany.
If it comes to this, all these sites will be targeted with MARV hypersonic gliding Avantguards carried by Sarmat ICBMs. The USA will become a radioactive parking lot I'm afraid...Oreshniks are just a strong reminder of what will happen if the escalation continues.
What goes around in the Northern hemisphere jet stream winds COMES around- RF are not suicidal, seem unlikely to use such quantities of thermonuclear weapons as would be required, even if they tend towards smaller devices carried by much more accurate delivery systems.
Kinetic weapons (and just possibly, more esoteric technologies) appear less Pyrrhic?
While everyone was busy talking about UFOs with Christmas lights, the US DOD (DARPA) + the usual suspects among MIC contractors and NASA very quietly committed to flying the first part of DRACO, an operational "test bed" nuclear-thermal rocket by end of 2025, with a larger, fully operable and crewed vehicle based on that propulsion technology following in 2027. "Military applications" WERE mentioned but not disclosed? They prefer talking about going to Mars but I can damn well see who has the larger budget between NASA and DOD.
Someone else already committed us to dragging a convenient asteroid into earth orbits for "mining"? Or even "dual uses", possibly dropping in megaton equivalent portions on inconveniently populous and politically refractory countries, leaving them depopulated but not radioactive, all the better to steal their natural resources afterwards. "We'll see your cute little Oreshnik bet, then raise with a Chicxulub sized impactor".
First look suggests 3km/sec is not getting you there, but I'm more knowledgeable re: chemical energy than high energy physics.
Nuclear isomar state change in Hf is yet another blue sky dreaming technology, if we are full on sci-fi tech nerd theorizing, see example 7 on p. 222 of linked PDF:
Sadly Russia adopted NATO doctrine No Action Talking Only. With Medvedev tweeting furious messages and all redlines were crossed constantly. Goading Russia into big conflict with NATO as per canal's plan fo New world order. Toothless like Iran and Arab world in middle East.
For God's sake, do NOT choose osmium for such uses (even if you could source that in such quantities)- The resulting osmium tetroxide would be a horribly toxic thing to contaminate a city/water table with, worse than depleted uranium in chemical toxicity if not in radiological hazard.
Fascinating read, as per usual, Mike. Great point by Piquet as well: "or maybe a weapon we don't know about."
My two kop: I would think the ole 1-2 approach makes sense. 1) Clearing strikes to structure(s) above bunker, Kinzhals;
2) Followed quickly by the kill shot(s) of Oreshnik or new weapon.
I would imagine anti-missile systems nearby would be numerous and on high alert.
Question: I am not sure the targeting projectiles would need to contain explosives, however could there be a metallic additive to said projectile's core? Something like osmium or iridium? I would imagine something as dense as these would amplify the overall impact dynamics.
Joke: Oreshnik's projectile may be made of halfnium. What about the other half?
"Oreshnik's projectile may be made of halfnium (sic). What about the other half?"
----------
On a molar basis, carbon. As in HfC. My first estimation was that the newer varieties of hafnium carbide (in carbon fiber matrix composite) ceramic aerospace materials met all the heat resistance & thermal capacity plus ablation resistance characteristics, with good density AND once superheated as fine particles, it BURNS well with really high heat out in atmosphere or even water vapor for an added thermal effect on any underground cavities.
I have a paper on unusual "ceramics" as fuels for high performance pyrotechnic devices here somewhere. HfC, ZrC, TiC,
these refractory materials which help make an effective facing tile for protecting a reentry vehicle on leading edges, yet in micron powders (or mixed with a suitable oxidizer) can burn hotter than aluminum or magnesium, especially when compared volume:volume rather than weight:weight. I presume the impactors are more limited by volume of their "busses", originally designed for nuclear payloads/decoys?
Here is a somewhat related paper on use of higher density materials with high heat outputs in oxidation after penetrating a target and comminuted as liners of shaped charges- An application where a projectile is influenced by nearly the same type of velocities/impact energies.
Wow! Thank you for the study, I am looking forward to reading it.
For prosperity sake, the joke was circulating amongst reactor operators, in reference to asking noobs about the composition of a nuclear reactor fuel cell (A1W). Of which it was hafnium (noobs spelled as halfnium) and inconel.
I think the bunker complex is a potential target not because of Zelensky, but because it is thought to be used by U.S./NATO high-level planners. The bunker would be a perfect message to the West if the Oreshnik (or maybe a weapon we don't yet know about) can successfully target and destroy it.
Excellent Detailed Article (writing), Quit Interesting/informative!
Thank you.
Nice analysis and discussion, thanks Mike.
Modeling and FEM is fine. But once upon a while one needs to check and compare with the experiment (reality). I don't know, how much there is scalability in ground penetration depending on speed. I'd suppose not so much. To make an experiment how an Oreshnik projectile works, you need to have one first. That limits the circle of capable parties to do such experiments to a single one.
Interesting thought that the projectiles may help each other. The pressure waves should result in a kind of ground liquifaction, which is a common thing in geological processes. A second warhead could than easier move through liquified ground making way for the next one to go even deeper.
The first Kinzhal was said to have hit the former USSR bunker for nuclear weapons near Delyatin. That was in spring of 2022. No damage evaluation has since reached the public.
What an insightful post. Thank you very much!
I guess Oreshnik was not available then, but what a pity the command bunker(s) was not taken out on Day 1 of the SMO. I never advocate death and destruction; but beheading the snake on Day 1 might have saved many lives and much misery? 20/20 hindsight?
Now that the Ukrainian armed forces are so weakened, an attack on the bunker at this stage in the SMO would hopefully be the coup de grace?
"beheading the snake on Day 1 might have saved many lives and much misery"
Except that the Kiev puppets aren't the head of the snake, they are the easily replaced useful idiots.
Good point; but taking out the command center might have been beneficial for Russia and might have helped Russia to take Kiev at the outset. We will never know!
That was not Russia's goal. They did not wanted to escalate things. The goal on Day 1 of the SMO was to push Ukraine to the negotiating table. If you want to negotiate, you do not take out the command structure.
Good points! Thank you.
This conflict is not between Ukraine & Russia.
This is an American/NATO proxy war against Russia on Ukrainian territory, using Ukrainians as cannon fodder.
Taking out Zelensky does nothing to stop or even slow down this proxy war.
Russia is methodically weakening America/NATO with the goal of rendering them incapable of waging war for a generation or more.
There were significant day-1 strikes against hardened control targets, especially air defense. Those were a substantial help in the first few days and likely contributed to Russia's penetrating movements.
The military and security services are designed to accommodate a level of decapitation, however, so once reorganized and communication re-established, business has carried on. Other, supposedly immune, bunker locations have been destroyed by hypersonics, with the loss of their Western satraps inside. Oreshnik simply steps things up a notch or two, with application of the "new physical principles" Putin has alluded in his speeches.
It's worth a final repeat, however, that deep penetration is nearly useless without extremely high precision. Any idiot can achieve hypersonic impact--just drop a rock from space, but to apply that hypersonic impact and act within the zone of effectiveness to destroy the target is the greatest step forward Oreshnik appears to offer.
Interesting. Thank you!
It fascinating to read this piece about the metro stations that I used to frequent a few years ago.
Hi Mike,
Thank you for your kind offer. I have a little nest-egg that will see me through. I am almost 75. My 3 kids are off my hands and they don't need me. Life is cheap and comfortable by the Red Sea in Egypt. A lot cheaper and more comfortable for me than Monaco. Frankly, if I had a $100,000 windfall, it would not change my lifestyle.
Anyone listening to Direct Line this morning? That's Putin's annual 4-hour open Q&A with world media and Russian citizens.
In discussing the advanced capabilities of Russia's new Oreshnik hypersonic missile, he made a challenge to NATO:
Select a target in Ukraine and then apply all NATO air defense systems currently in Romania and Poland to protect it to see if they can shoot down an Oreshnik. The results will be for all the world to see.
@Truth Seeking Missile
Interesting. Give a link? (To an English language translation, text version, ideally).
They release the transcript section by section. You can find it on the Kremlin website here when it is added:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/copy/75909
Use Google which will automatically translate it. If you get a security warning ignore it, that's your western browser talking back.
Thanks, I will check that out.
Why would NATO play this game? The only use that Oreshnik has that NATO cares about is against a western target.
Ask Putin.
Thank you again, Mike for masterful organization of technical detail into a readily understandable composition. It looks like Russia wants to wait for Trump and build Oreshniks for the moment.
The Brits employed the new Maxim Gun in Africa to enforce their colonial regime. Rothschild was one of the big money guys involved in the development and application of the new weapon. It was devastating when used in Rhodesia (Zimbabwe)against the tribes there(cf First Matabele War, Oct 25, 1893.) Tribesmen wielding spears had no answer for the industrial scale killing of the Maxim Gun. Technology wins.
<<The Maxim-Nordenfelt Guns and Ammunition Company was the result of a takeover by Hiram Maxim of Thorsten Nordenfelt's Nordenfelt Guns and Ammunition Company in 1888. Rothschild issued £1.9 million (1888) (equivalent to £264.26 million or US$328.46 million in 2023)[1] worth of shares to finance the merger. Nathan Rothschild retained a substantial shareholding in the new Maxim-Nordenfelt combine and ‘exerted a direct influence over its management’.[2] >>
-Wikipedia-
While the Maxim Gun benefited the imperial regime in Africa, the new Russian weapon could also be potentially understood now as the ANTI-IMPERIAL weapon, employed to disrupt (end?) the centuries old Western Imperialism. All wars are banker wars and the financial interests working against the Russians are just the same old, same old. Looking at you England and U$$A. Hoping here that the Russians with their allies can turn back these same, long-in-the-tooth, murderous imperialists. Technology...fingers crossed.
This is again a superb article, thank you so much. I now understand much more about the huge task of hitting that bunker - what it takes, how complex such a bunker is and all the technical detail. It is definitely a target Nr.1, because of its menacing role. NATO commanders there plus other important political and military people in the bunker surely need to be destroyed. Hopefully, Zelensky and co. will be inside and get destroyed, too.
Excellent, meaningful and meticulous analysis. As an engineer with almost similar experience in engineering as yours I really appreciated it. It would be very interesting to have a similar analysis for another possible NATO target in Ramstein, Germany.
Thank you
Or some places in Bruxelles... :)
That would be very disirable, and no need to be done at night.
Absolutely, who are we to forbid them a proper Nutella party????
:) :) :)
Even better... Mr. Putin should contact an event organizer and arrange a "Nutella party" tour...
My suggestions: Kiev, Bruxelles, Davos, Cologny and then a few of capitals...
Fireworks assured!
@SIMEON PAPADOPOULOS
Please, let's also model the Cheyenne Mountain/Mount Weather complexes? And distribute the research papers to Congress.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheyenne_Mountain_Complex
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_continuity_of_operations#:~:text=These%20measures%20included%20construction%20of,of%20an%20%22enemy%20attack%22.
If it comes to this, all these sites will be targeted with MARV hypersonic gliding Avantguards carried by Sarmat ICBMs. The USA will become a radioactive parking lot I'm afraid...Oreshniks are just a strong reminder of what will happen if the escalation continues.
@SIMEON PAPADOPOULOS
What goes around in the Northern hemisphere jet stream winds COMES around- RF are not suicidal, seem unlikely to use such quantities of thermonuclear weapons as would be required, even if they tend towards smaller devices carried by much more accurate delivery systems.
Kinetic weapons (and just possibly, more esoteric technologies) appear less Pyrrhic?
While everyone was busy talking about UFOs with Christmas lights, the US DOD (DARPA) + the usual suspects among MIC contractors and NASA very quietly committed to flying the first part of DRACO, an operational "test bed" nuclear-thermal rocket by end of 2025, with a larger, fully operable and crewed vehicle based on that propulsion technology following in 2027. "Military applications" WERE mentioned but not disclosed? They prefer talking about going to Mars but I can damn well see who has the larger budget between NASA and DOD.
Someone else already committed us to dragging a convenient asteroid into earth orbits for "mining"? Or even "dual uses", possibly dropping in megaton equivalent portions on inconveniently populous and politically refractory countries, leaving them depopulated but not radioactive, all the better to steal their natural resources afterwards. "We'll see your cute little Oreshnik bet, then raise with a Chicxulub sized impactor".
Coulomb explosion possible with hypersonics?
https://x.com/richgel999/status/1868469305618133386
@Don
First look suggests 3km/sec is not getting you there, but I'm more knowledgeable re: chemical energy than high energy physics.
Nuclear isomar state change in Hf is yet another blue sky dreaming technology, if we are full on sci-fi tech nerd theorizing, see example 7 on p. 222 of linked PDF:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://jes.or.jp/mag/stem/Vol.65/documents/Vol.65,No.6,p.215-226.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjEu97Qh7SKAxXErokEHcHJHqkQFnoECBQQAQ&sqi=2&usg=AOvVaw0n1Mj9Q6-JiTvpejR2puOg
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/727960
Sadly Russia adopted NATO doctrine No Action Talking Only. With Medvedev tweeting furious messages and all redlines were crossed constantly. Goading Russia into big conflict with NATO as per canal's plan fo New world order. Toothless like Iran and Arab world in middle East.
Back into Mom's basement now that you have shared your amazing insight.
One of the best and most insightful articles on the topic!
I doubt the warheads weighs 200kg each, more likely 50-100.
200kg would be a 7,2 ton load for the total warhead. And then you must add all other necessary items like casing, guidance etc.
Thank you. Small MIRV warheads (
The MARV carrier warhead (and there is 6 of them) may be cc 180-200 kg. that would give smaller one 30-35 kg. In any case, it may be also smaller.
For God's sake, do NOT choose osmium for such uses (even if you could source that in such quantities)- The resulting osmium tetroxide would be a horribly toxic thing to contaminate a city/water table with, worse than depleted uranium in chemical toxicity if not in radiological hazard.
Superb research and analysis. I will post the link on News Forensics. Everyone should read this.
Fascinating read, as per usual, Mike. Great point by Piquet as well: "or maybe a weapon we don't know about."
My two kop: I would think the ole 1-2 approach makes sense. 1) Clearing strikes to structure(s) above bunker, Kinzhals;
2) Followed quickly by the kill shot(s) of Oreshnik or new weapon.
I would imagine anti-missile systems nearby would be numerous and on high alert.
Question: I am not sure the targeting projectiles would need to contain explosives, however could there be a metallic additive to said projectile's core? Something like osmium or iridium? I would imagine something as dense as these would amplify the overall impact dynamics.
Joke: Oreshnik's projectile may be made of halfnium. What about the other half?
Cheers from Lincoln!
@Kotanraju Via Znanje
(Quote)
"Oreshnik's projectile may be made of halfnium (sic). What about the other half?"
----------
On a molar basis, carbon. As in HfC. My first estimation was that the newer varieties of hafnium carbide (in carbon fiber matrix composite) ceramic aerospace materials met all the heat resistance & thermal capacity plus ablation resistance characteristics, with good density AND once superheated as fine particles, it BURNS well with really high heat out in atmosphere or even water vapor for an added thermal effect on any underground cavities.
I have a paper on unusual "ceramics" as fuels for high performance pyrotechnic devices here somewhere. HfC, ZrC, TiC,
(Edit- Found it!)
http://www.sciencemadness.org/talk/files.php?pid=500092&aid=63212
these refractory materials which help make an effective facing tile for protecting a reentry vehicle on leading edges, yet in micron powders (or mixed with a suitable oxidizer) can burn hotter than aluminum or magnesium, especially when compared volume:volume rather than weight:weight. I presume the impactors are more limited by volume of their "busses", originally designed for nuclear payloads/decoys?
Here is a somewhat related paper on use of higher density materials with high heat outputs in oxidation after penetrating a target and comminuted as liners of shaped charges- An application where a projectile is influenced by nearly the same type of velocities/impact energies.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://scholar.google.com/scholar_url%3Furl%3Dhttps://journals.ekb.eg/article_176049_776c04803e449a987d89696b992ebb54.pdf%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DX%26ei%3DrxFkZ_ukH4CX6rQP4PnhsQs%26scisig%3DAFWwaeZCKQgO8UO7zvA_ru6zMn85%26oi%3Dscholarr&ved=2ahUKEwjxkOr26rOKAxVYDTQIHdWYMNUQgAN6BAgSEAI&usg=AOvVaw07_mckJvsXqNXgjuPB5Zus
Wow! Thank you for the study, I am looking forward to reading it.
For prosperity sake, the joke was circulating amongst reactor operators, in reference to asking noobs about the composition of a nuclear reactor fuel cell (A1W). Of which it was hafnium (noobs spelled as halfnium) and inconel.
@Kotanraju Via Znanje
Might want to check this one as well-
http://www.sciencemadness.org/talk/files.php?pid=500092&aid=63212
Even if Putin had the stones to do it, it would make no difference, since Zelenskii's death in no wise affects any of the decisionmakers.
I think the bunker complex is a potential target not because of Zelensky, but because it is thought to be used by U.S./NATO high-level planners. The bunker would be a perfect message to the West if the Oreshnik (or maybe a weapon we don't yet know about) can successfully target and destroy it.
A deterrent is of no value if your enemy knows you never will use it.