Thanks for the technical explanation of the Rayleigh wave; I have been suitably educated. It's interesting to see conflicting US messaging; it is hypersonic, no it's not hypersonic. Will they heed the message? That's the quadrillion dollar debt question.
I've concluded that they're insane and behave irrationally which is evident from their counter productive panicy behaviour. The US has gone from James Baker to the Sullivan Blinken duo, what can go right?
I cannot hide my eagerness to discover the extent of the damage. Incredibly one MSM article dismissed VVP's assertion that NATO has no air defence capable of stopping this weapon, stating such a claim was very debatable, the absolute arrogance of these idiots.
when you look at the satellite picture a bit more towards the south - you will likely see a sparsely built up area, as it is typical not for city centers and industry, but for military industrial enterprises handling explosives and the like. I'd say this is the place with the missile building, storage, and the bunkers. The industrial area you pointed out, however, is likely somehow connected underground.
As for the renaming - Yuzhmash is an akronym from a full SOUTHern MACHine building corporation. Instead of Russian Yuzhnoy for Southern (the Yug from Yugoslavia is a close cognate) they replaced it with Ukrainian word for Southern - which refers the position of the sun at midday - Half-Day - as in Polish, for example.
"Military summary" showed yesterday (from somewhere) a satellite view for BDA from before and after. But, as usually for BDA assesments from the West - this is utter fake and shows the same picture with some filters and added "damage" (shadows same direction and length, trees still in green).
The naming of oreshnik (hazel) is in line with other tree/shrub names of such missiles, e.g. "topol" (poplar), "kedr" fits too (Siberian pine) - may be next time
Hey Mike! Great write up, as it coherently explains what is already out on them interwebs. I would imagine having the 6 hypersonic projectiles impact at the same time would greatly magnify the overall effect.
It would be a good show of capabilities to have Russia advance warn a target, by say an hour, and said target is "protected," by a Patriot battery. That would certainly show the world that the Patriots are only good for shareholders (at least they were).
Excellent and very detailed article. Kudos on the research!
I think there is more to the Russian introduction of this new weapon than just responding to the use of ATACMS, Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles. I posted this yesterday in various places:
Here's the new problem: It's not just ATACMS any more.
I believe the US is considering using the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania to hit inside Russia using Tomahawk cruise missiles.
This ties together Zelensky's request for Tomahawks, as well as Ukraine's request for more "advanced air defenses" - specifically the THAAD and the Aegis Ashore systems - as well as US discussions about "giving Ukraine nuclear weapons", as reported here earlier.
All three requests can be satisfied by arranging for the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania to be used in support of Ukraine.
Think about it: What difference is it from using US supplied and US operated ATACMS to using US supplied and US operated Aegis Ashore?
This is how the idiots in Washington think. They don't comprehend that Russia already views the Aegis Ashore as a major strategic threat to Russia, both for its ability to intercept Russian ICBMs in the context of a Russian retaliatory strike in a nuclear war, and its ability to participate in a decapitation strike by the US against Russia as part of the initiation of such a war.
Never mind that Tomahawks are old and slow, easily intercepted by Russia's advanced AD systems, and subject to Russian ECM as they were in Syria during Trump's ill-advised attacks on Syria facilities.
This is not Syria. Russia will have to treat any Tomahawk launched from Poland or Romania as a nuclear strike.
This is why Russia recently designated those installations as priority targets. They always were priority targets.
This is also why Russia demonstrated its new Oreshnik ("Hazel") missile. It is precisely that missile which can destroy those installations.
And it is likely Russia issued that warning precisely because they know that Washington is considering using those installations in support of Ukraine.
This would be a direct initiation of WWIII - not just over a few ATACMS.
Just to bring this article up since someone already claimed the "Aegis can't shoot Tomahawks" argument (which is based solely on Western claims, and ignores the fact that the Aegis System is designed to do just that from ships - both AD and cruise missiles):
Russia may have violated the INF Treaty. Here’s how the United States appears to…
Technical complexity aside, I wonder how well "The West" recognizes that this is in many ways, as effective as a nuke, but delivered with tactical accuracy, and also, specifically not a nuke! That it demonstrates a way to do medium to long range strikes, with pinpoint accuracy, and while not endangering any Russian airmen? If expanded to the truly long ranges missile sets, this arguably changes the entire world!
As I have said for years, the West, specifically the US, has been drinking it's own koolaid, and reading it's own press clippings about how great their conventional armed forces are, while throwing away trillions in essentially the same old 20th century tech that got them here, while the Russians, and others (Chinese, Iranians) have actually been thinking about how they can best the West, by thinking outside of the tired 20th century box.
Coupled with other systems, it looks like they were right, and we were wrong!
To say it was done in anger is questionable reflecting the psychwar antics of the incompetents.
Liked your visual animation of what happened and the historical background of the target .
I guess the military production centres for the Stormshadow , and French ordinance will soon be fair game as the escalation is kept ramping up by the West.
Seen by the new American base in Poland to house warheads meant for Russia .
Original motivations for the SMO now has to be expanded beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Thank you. Perhaps, the major effect of the "Oreshnik" debut is on the "owners of the collective west"–– in terms of the "owners" delusional belief in sitting out a war in some very special bunkers.
Western banksters and other supremacist scum-in-charge now need time to pause and ponder on their fate in case they continue doing their usual thing of culling tens of millions of human beings with a purpose of unrestrained Looting. There should be a detailed map of the "owners" bunkers.
YW. The war will continue as far as the US "businessmen" want because the whole war is just about the control of natural resources and investment. Nobody cares for Ukrainians and never cares. Those "businessmen" would risk WW3 just to get a return on investment. MIC already packed billions of orders to replace stocks sent to Ukraine. Also, private pockets still need to be filled because it is the biggest money laundering operation in the world.
Propaganda, in my country (Portugal) is still saying that this "Oreshnik" is interceptable. I suppose what they really mean is "to God, nothing is impossible".
As to your first paragraph: did the US and the UK and France "authorised" anything (to be done by ukrainians)? Isn't it the case that US and UK and France are "the authors" (of those atacms and storm shadow and scalps atacks delivered from 404)?
Both France and the UK authorized the use of their weapons. The problem is that they simply don't have sufficient numbers and the production is extremely slow. Russia routinely intercepts them, Some go through, and that is the reality. In any case, both France and the UK are just lap dogs and pretend they are powers but in reality, they are just remnants of the former colonial powers which time is out.
As I understand it, all those missiles contain essential parts designed and made in the US. At any rate, legally (and perhaps in practice) those missiles cannot be used without permission from Washington. (Just like the UK's "nuclear deterrent").
Thus the UK and France could not give Kiev permission to fire Storm Shadows and SCALPs into Russia until they, in turn, had sought and been granted permission to give permission.
I understand that Kiev would need more than permission, namely instruction how to operate them, or even, active involvement in their operation by specialized Western personnel, is that correct or not?
A very good question indeed! I have been wondering that myself. One would like to believe that active involvement could never happen without prior political commitment (preferably public) from the relevant government. And if, as I suggest, "permission" is transitive - that is, it's not enough for France or the UK to give permission, as they in turn need permission from Washington - no such missile could be launched without political approval all the way from the top. (If Mr Biden can really be so described).
The other idea that occurred to me is that maybe some governments might be underhanded - refusing permission out of one side of their mouth while giving instructions and approval from the other side. Or even giving instructions and approval (and coordinates, etc.) all along, whatever they might deny publicly.
It does seem to me that, in such an important situation, we must assume they are guilty unless they can prove themselves innocent.
Likely BS. Very little is actually made in the US, for starters. It's remotely possible that some part of vaguely US origin -- Ie designed, manufactured, packaged, and distributed all outside the US by non US people, but with a sticker of a US company somewhere on the final product. But I would doubt even this. RF is naturally paranoid about strategic weapons and they are first in line for import substitution.
Thank You, Mike. Very good and practical analysis with a clear and concise summary, which are very useful features. I'll use this in my next blog post.
Thanks for the technical explanation of the Rayleigh wave; I have been suitably educated. It's interesting to see conflicting US messaging; it is hypersonic, no it's not hypersonic. Will they heed the message? That's the quadrillion dollar debt question.
Message delivered but it may fell on deaf ears.
I've concluded that they're insane and behave irrationally which is evident from their counter productive panicy behaviour. The US has gone from James Baker to the Sullivan Blinken duo, what can go right?
No, it's that nobody in Washington, nobody in Brussels, nobody in Keiv cares in the least about Ukraine or Ukrainians.
.if you want to dissuade a chicken farmer, you don't threaten the birds, you threaten the farmer.
Вы действительно думаете, что фермер не заметил угрозу?
Не, как свою жизнь.
I have a bumper sticker that says, "Fred and Daffy 2024! A cave man and duck how can we go wrong?".
At what speed does the plasma shield form around hypersonics and does the shield interfere with navigation/targeting?
Based on experience, I would not be optimistic.
I cannot hide my eagerness to discover the extent of the damage. Incredibly one MSM article dismissed VVP's assertion that NATO has no air defence capable of stopping this weapon, stating such a claim was very debatable, the absolute arrogance of these idiots.
BBC reports, based on testimony of the locals, that the explosions lasted for 3 hours. That factory will not produce anything for quite some time.
Some locals related that little was left of the site except dust.
Hi Mike,
when you look at the satellite picture a bit more towards the south - you will likely see a sparsely built up area, as it is typical not for city centers and industry, but for military industrial enterprises handling explosives and the like. I'd say this is the place with the missile building, storage, and the bunkers. The industrial area you pointed out, however, is likely somehow connected underground.
As for the renaming - Yuzhmash is an akronym from a full SOUTHern MACHine building corporation. Instead of Russian Yuzhnoy for Southern (the Yug from Yugoslavia is a close cognate) they replaced it with Ukrainian word for Southern - which refers the position of the sun at midday - Half-Day - as in Polish, for example.
"Military summary" showed yesterday (from somewhere) a satellite view for BDA from before and after. But, as usually for BDA assesments from the West - this is utter fake and shows the same picture with some filters and added "damage" (shadows same direction and length, trees still in green).
The naming of oreshnik (hazel) is in line with other tree/shrub names of such missiles, e.g. "topol" (poplar), "kedr" fits too (Siberian pine) - may be next time
У конструкторов весьма специфичное чувство юмора. Буратино, Пересвет, Солнцепек, Метис, Кромка, Поднос, Зоопарк.
Hey Mike! Great write up, as it coherently explains what is already out on them interwebs. I would imagine having the 6 hypersonic projectiles impact at the same time would greatly magnify the overall effect.
It would be a good show of capabilities to have Russia advance warn a target, by say an hour, and said target is "protected," by a Patriot battery. That would certainly show the world that the Patriots are only good for shareholders (at least they were).
Russia does not need to prove anything. In contrary, NATO & US always struggle to prove that PAC-3 works.
Excellent and very detailed article. Kudos on the research!
I think there is more to the Russian introduction of this new weapon than just responding to the use of ATACMS, Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles. I posted this yesterday in various places:
Here's the new problem: It's not just ATACMS any more.
I believe the US is considering using the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania to hit inside Russia using Tomahawk cruise missiles.
This ties together Zelensky's request for Tomahawks, as well as Ukraine's request for more "advanced air defenses" - specifically the THAAD and the Aegis Ashore systems - as well as US discussions about "giving Ukraine nuclear weapons", as reported here earlier.
All three requests can be satisfied by arranging for the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania to be used in support of Ukraine.
Think about it: What difference is it from using US supplied and US operated ATACMS to using US supplied and US operated Aegis Ashore?
This is how the idiots in Washington think. They don't comprehend that Russia already views the Aegis Ashore as a major strategic threat to Russia, both for its ability to intercept Russian ICBMs in the context of a Russian retaliatory strike in a nuclear war, and its ability to participate in a decapitation strike by the US against Russia as part of the initiation of such a war.
Never mind that Tomahawks are old and slow, easily intercepted by Russia's advanced AD systems, and subject to Russian ECM as they were in Syria during Trump's ill-advised attacks on Syria facilities.
This is not Syria. Russia will have to treat any Tomahawk launched from Poland or Romania as a nuclear strike.
This is why Russia recently designated those installations as priority targets. They always were priority targets.
This is also why Russia demonstrated its new Oreshnik ("Hazel") missile. It is precisely that missile which can destroy those installations.
And it is likely Russia issued that warning precisely because they know that Washington is considering using those installations in support of Ukraine.
This would be a direct initiation of WWIII - not just over a few ATACMS.
Just to bring this article up since someone already claimed the "Aegis can't shoot Tomahawks" argument (which is based solely on Western claims, and ignores the fact that the Aegis System is designed to do just that from ships - both AD and cruise missiles):
Russia may have violated the INF Treaty. Here’s how the United States appears to…
https://thebulletin.org/2019/02/russia-may-have-violated-the-inf-treaty-heres-how-the-united-states-appears-to-have-done-the-same/
Thank you.
Well, the Biden Administration has signaled that Ukraine will.soon get more and longer ranged missiles.
If I may joke a few.. but just a few Sir...
Pivdenmash... or Biden mash?
:)
More seriously, thanks for Your very detailed explanation and it's good to see that still there is someone on this side to know and understand things.
I suppose You aren't graduate on DEI or communication or other sillyness...
:)
Excellent piece!
Technical complexity aside, I wonder how well "The West" recognizes that this is in many ways, as effective as a nuke, but delivered with tactical accuracy, and also, specifically not a nuke! That it demonstrates a way to do medium to long range strikes, with pinpoint accuracy, and while not endangering any Russian airmen? If expanded to the truly long ranges missile sets, this arguably changes the entire world!
As I have said for years, the West, specifically the US, has been drinking it's own koolaid, and reading it's own press clippings about how great their conventional armed forces are, while throwing away trillions in essentially the same old 20th century tech that got them here, while the Russians, and others (Chinese, Iranians) have actually been thinking about how they can best the West, by thinking outside of the tired 20th century box.
Coupled with other systems, it looks like they were right, and we were wrong!
To say it was done in anger is questionable reflecting the psychwar antics of the incompetents.
Liked your visual animation of what happened and the historical background of the target .
I guess the military production centres for the Stormshadow , and French ordinance will soon be fair game as the escalation is kept ramping up by the West.
Seen by the new American base in Poland to house warheads meant for Russia .
Original motivations for the SMO now has to be expanded beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Sooner the threat is resolved is the choice here.
Yuzmashed
Thank you. Perhaps, the major effect of the "Oreshnik" debut is on the "owners of the collective west"–– in terms of the "owners" delusional belief in sitting out a war in some very special bunkers.
Western banksters and other supremacist scum-in-charge now need time to pause and ponder on their fate in case they continue doing their usual thing of culling tens of millions of human beings with a purpose of unrestrained Looting. There should be a detailed map of the "owners" bunkers.
YW. The war will continue as far as the US "businessmen" want because the whole war is just about the control of natural resources and investment. Nobody cares for Ukrainians and never cares. Those "businessmen" would risk WW3 just to get a return on investment. MIC already packed billions of orders to replace stocks sent to Ukraine. Also, private pockets still need to be filled because it is the biggest money laundering operation in the world.
Ukrainian natural resources are piddling. Ukraine is of no value to the West, except as a spear pointed towards Russia.
Excellent article
What a superb report, Mike! If makes me so happy to know our Oligarch Rulers are no longer safe in their bunkers!
Russia has won WW3 before setting foot on the European Battlefield a la Sun Tsu!🇷🇺
Great article!
By the way, Brits should worry about SS Richard Montgomerry...
Tell the Ukrainians don’t be too sure that it has not entered serial production yet!!
Thank you! All the best, in all~ways❤️🇷🇺💙Old lady with a virtual kat❤️🐈⬛
You are welcome. You too.
Thank you for your article.
Propaganda, in my country (Portugal) is still saying that this "Oreshnik" is interceptable. I suppose what they really mean is "to God, nothing is impossible".
As to your first paragraph: did the US and the UK and France "authorised" anything (to be done by ukrainians)? Isn't it the case that US and UK and France are "the authors" (of those atacms and storm shadow and scalps atacks delivered from 404)?
Both France and the UK authorized the use of their weapons. The problem is that they simply don't have sufficient numbers and the production is extremely slow. Russia routinely intercepts them, Some go through, and that is the reality. In any case, both France and the UK are just lap dogs and pretend they are powers but in reality, they are just remnants of the former colonial powers which time is out.
I mean, I guess the ground intercepted then :)
As I understand it, all those missiles contain essential parts designed and made in the US. At any rate, legally (and perhaps in practice) those missiles cannot be used without permission from Washington. (Just like the UK's "nuclear deterrent").
Thus the UK and France could not give Kiev permission to fire Storm Shadows and SCALPs into Russia until they, in turn, had sought and been granted permission to give permission.
I understand that Kiev would need more than permission, namely instruction how to operate them, or even, active involvement in their operation by specialized Western personnel, is that correct or not?
The issue is that programming is done by NATO teams. Ukrainians are acting as delivery company.
A very good question indeed! I have been wondering that myself. One would like to believe that active involvement could never happen without prior political commitment (preferably public) from the relevant government. And if, as I suggest, "permission" is transitive - that is, it's not enough for France or the UK to give permission, as they in turn need permission from Washington - no such missile could be launched without political approval all the way from the top. (If Mr Biden can really be so described).
The other idea that occurred to me is that maybe some governments might be underhanded - refusing permission out of one side of their mouth while giving instructions and approval from the other side. Or even giving instructions and approval (and coordinates, etc.) all along, whatever they might deny publicly.
It does seem to me that, in such an important situation, we must assume they are guilty unless they can prove themselves innocent.
Likely BS. Very little is actually made in the US, for starters. It's remotely possible that some part of vaguely US origin -- Ie designed, manufactured, packaged, and distributed all outside the US by non US people, but with a sticker of a US company somewhere on the final product. But I would doubt even this. RF is naturally paranoid about strategic weapons and they are first in line for import substitution.
No, it means that Russia is not threatening anyone or anything that Europe cares about.
Thank You, Mike. Very good and practical analysis with a clear and concise summary, which are very useful features. I'll use this in my next blog post.
You are welcome