Excellent analysis! It’s rare that in one place I read something that pulls in so many pieces in a coherent whole.
Unlike you unfortunately I am not optimistic of the prospects of WW3. Not only do I think it will happen, I think it will happen earlier in 2027 and the US won’t let go that easy.
Don’t count on the American people to do anything. In fact they might end up cheering the war. Not because they’re bad people but they are so ignorant and misled that they can’t understand the game.
Also, the elites that run the US don’t care about Americans and they understand very well that if they lose Europe and Asia they will turn their parasitic nature on their own people, causing a complete collapse of the US. They don’t want that obviously but they have no choice; it’s in their nature. So for them they see one way only, and that way is more and bigger war.
The US is not a normal country like Serbia or Russia (or even Poland) is. It is a mishmash of competing ideology with a very thin veneer of patriotism and years of top-down psychopathic exploitation has conditioned many to think that way. I’m afraid - and I wish I could see it any other way for the sake of normal simple Americans - that a clear and devastating US defeat is the only way for this to stop. But will there be a world remaining? I don’t know .. I give it 50/50.
Great insight! As all wars are economic, I believe that armed conflict in Asia as minimal, at best. The creation of BRICS+, SCO, North-South Corridor, New Silk Road, &c. Will lead to the economic collapse of the dollar hegemony, especially since the US' "wealth," is on a foundation of sand (debt). Many people in the US will suffer the consequences of bad economic policy since 1913. However, there are many of us that see what is coming and will survive self-sufficiently.
One request: I know that you are very busy and have 2023 mapped out. I, and others I would assume, would benefit about Serbian history. Our "knowledge," comes from corrupt education and media entities. Would you be able to write a brief post on Serbian history (not the centuries of history, that would take years 😊) in light of the current events and in light of your thoughtful projections?
Thank you Aleks. I wish I wasn't so naïve to hope that some of the EU countries and US citizens will just say "No" to the oligarchs. I doubt we can get rid of them, but hopefully they will crawl back into their hole. I've been wondering for decades why "growth" is necessary. Isn't it possible to produce enough to meet our needs and leave it at that? I remember speaking with a family who moved to Ecuador- they thought they could buy the used furniture and equipment they needed once they arrived. Afterward, they realized there are no used furniture stores. Furniture, equipment, appliances and automobiles are refurbished and continue to operate. There is little waste or excess. I'm glad you're optimistic about WW3 - no one wants that!! My best to you - ~Cairenn
What about all the biolabs in the Ukraine? Certainly these were funded with the anticipation of using them against any and all of the Empire of Lies imagined enemies.
Thank you very much. The best analysis and summary I have ever read. I wish it would be spread more widely in the West. And I am always wondering what kind of exit strategy all these warmongering MFs in the western mass media have, which are trying to tell us all the time, that Russia is loosing in the Ukraine.
great piece, as always, NATO (No Action Talks Only) like any local bully pick fights that can win easily, they will coward down, russia will not stop, even if they enter odessa, russia allow it in siria, just because is not that important and the government is safe from the locals minions, but not odessa, that's something that putin will not tolerate. agree with you if russia manage to collect a 2million soldier army, brussel will be the ultimate goal.
The future is described with a broad brush but this is how predictions should be made.
The key are the break-points listed that should be monitored by those who want to understand when any of presented scenarios start being more probable over the others.
Thank you for still being optimistic that WW3 can be avoided - and that there are still back-office meetings that can sort out things before problems erupt.
Very good analysis, Alek! I'm glad you didn't really take the that time off like you said in a previous article. We will need your articles, big things are coming with the imminent fall of Bakhmut.
Maybe WWIII has already started and all that remains to be determined is whether or not the combatants have the sense to keep the conflict conventional?
Wow! What a great article. Lonnnnnnnnnnnnngggg...but oh so comprehensive. I particularly liked your comments of the Odessa Moment and the Western Ukraine Moment (connection to Hungary and Serbia). There is a MOUNTAIN of good stuff here, which I will be quoting in future articles on my own Substack page News Forensics. Actually, this article is really 5 or 6. I think you are correct in your prediction that Russian will carry out gradual attrition of the Ukrainian army until there is no one left to fight -- and also the population of Western Ukraine is in dire need of help, which only Russia can supply. "Ukraine" will cease to exist. Instead you will have Novorossiya. "Ukraine" will be Galicia, which really doesn't have much of anything. As for the West's gifts of weapons....LOL. Much ado about nothing as I write here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/much-ado-about-nothing-western-wunderwaffen.
Wider European instability has been driven by the absence of a land-bridge between its two major naturally complementary states (Germany & Russia) 1st by geography (Poland) and 2nd by the intervention of outside powers (France, UK, USA) to maintain that status.
A land-bridge via Hungary is probably a primary goal of the SMO, but it will still not correct that larger problem. Russia->Hungary->Austria->Germany will still be subject to the future vagaries of those intervening states.
A direct connection is only possible via ring-fencing Poland and establishing an Upper Silesian corridor.
The question is, will Poland provide the excuse for the Russians to cross their border in order to establish one?
Cui bono? Maybe China is more of a string-puller than you give them credit for. Americans who are skeptical of Ukraine involvement also wonder about their President's family corruption in China.
If I'm reading your article correctly, you predicted the collapse of Ukraine in summer 2023. As we are closer to summer 2024, it could be very interesting if you revisited your past articles and analysed them in retrospective.
Its a good thing that Putin seems to realize that it is not the western people that wish to see harm to Russia, but the western elites.
Excellent analysis! It’s rare that in one place I read something that pulls in so many pieces in a coherent whole.
Unlike you unfortunately I am not optimistic of the prospects of WW3. Not only do I think it will happen, I think it will happen earlier in 2027 and the US won’t let go that easy.
Don’t count on the American people to do anything. In fact they might end up cheering the war. Not because they’re bad people but they are so ignorant and misled that they can’t understand the game.
Also, the elites that run the US don’t care about Americans and they understand very well that if they lose Europe and Asia they will turn their parasitic nature on their own people, causing a complete collapse of the US. They don’t want that obviously but they have no choice; it’s in their nature. So for them they see one way only, and that way is more and bigger war.
The US is not a normal country like Serbia or Russia (or even Poland) is. It is a mishmash of competing ideology with a very thin veneer of patriotism and years of top-down psychopathic exploitation has conditioned many to think that way. I’m afraid - and I wish I could see it any other way for the sake of normal simple Americans - that a clear and devastating US defeat is the only way for this to stop. But will there be a world remaining? I don’t know .. I give it 50/50.
Great insight! As all wars are economic, I believe that armed conflict in Asia as minimal, at best. The creation of BRICS+, SCO, North-South Corridor, New Silk Road, &c. Will lead to the economic collapse of the dollar hegemony, especially since the US' "wealth," is on a foundation of sand (debt). Many people in the US will suffer the consequences of bad economic policy since 1913. However, there are many of us that see what is coming and will survive self-sufficiently.
One request: I know that you are very busy and have 2023 mapped out. I, and others I would assume, would benefit about Serbian history. Our "knowledge," comes from corrupt education and media entities. Would you be able to write a brief post on Serbian history (not the centuries of history, that would take years 😊) in light of the current events and in light of your thoughtful projections?
Cheers from Cheyenne!
Thank you Aleks. I wish I wasn't so naïve to hope that some of the EU countries and US citizens will just say "No" to the oligarchs. I doubt we can get rid of them, but hopefully they will crawl back into their hole. I've been wondering for decades why "growth" is necessary. Isn't it possible to produce enough to meet our needs and leave it at that? I remember speaking with a family who moved to Ecuador- they thought they could buy the used furniture and equipment they needed once they arrived. Afterward, they realized there are no used furniture stores. Furniture, equipment, appliances and automobiles are refurbished and continue to operate. There is little waste or excess. I'm glad you're optimistic about WW3 - no one wants that!! My best to you - ~Cairenn
What about all the biolabs in the Ukraine? Certainly these were funded with the anticipation of using them against any and all of the Empire of Lies imagined enemies.
Thank you very much. The best analysis and summary I have ever read. I wish it would be spread more widely in the West. And I am always wondering what kind of exit strategy all these warmongering MFs in the western mass media have, which are trying to tell us all the time, that Russia is loosing in the Ukraine.
great piece, as always, NATO (No Action Talks Only) like any local bully pick fights that can win easily, they will coward down, russia will not stop, even if they enter odessa, russia allow it in siria, just because is not that important and the government is safe from the locals minions, but not odessa, that's something that putin will not tolerate. agree with you if russia manage to collect a 2million soldier army, brussel will be the ultimate goal.
Good read.
The future is described with a broad brush but this is how predictions should be made.
The key are the break-points listed that should be monitored by those who want to understand when any of presented scenarios start being more probable over the others.
Thank you for still being optimistic that WW3 can be avoided - and that there are still back-office meetings that can sort out things before problems erupt.
Look forward to next updates
wojtek
Very good analysis, Alek! I'm glad you didn't really take the that time off like you said in a previous article. We will need your articles, big things are coming with the imminent fall of Bakhmut.
Absolutely outstanding analysis. I can confirm this 100%. The best thing I have read in a long time. Many thanks for this, greetings from Switzerland.
Maybe WWIII has already started and all that remains to be determined is whether or not the combatants have the sense to keep the conflict conventional?
If would be nice if you could explain the COVID role in this geo strategic context.
Wow! What a great article. Lonnnnnnnnnnnnngggg...but oh so comprehensive. I particularly liked your comments of the Odessa Moment and the Western Ukraine Moment (connection to Hungary and Serbia). There is a MOUNTAIN of good stuff here, which I will be quoting in future articles on my own Substack page News Forensics. Actually, this article is really 5 or 6. I think you are correct in your prediction that Russian will carry out gradual attrition of the Ukrainian army until there is no one left to fight -- and also the population of Western Ukraine is in dire need of help, which only Russia can supply. "Ukraine" will cease to exist. Instead you will have Novorossiya. "Ukraine" will be Galicia, which really doesn't have much of anything. As for the West's gifts of weapons....LOL. Much ado about nothing as I write here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/much-ado-about-nothing-western-wunderwaffen.
Wider European instability has been driven by the absence of a land-bridge between its two major naturally complementary states (Germany & Russia) 1st by geography (Poland) and 2nd by the intervention of outside powers (France, UK, USA) to maintain that status.
A land-bridge via Hungary is probably a primary goal of the SMO, but it will still not correct that larger problem. Russia->Hungary->Austria->Germany will still be subject to the future vagaries of those intervening states.
A direct connection is only possible via ring-fencing Poland and establishing an Upper Silesian corridor.
The question is, will Poland provide the excuse for the Russians to cross their border in order to establish one?
Cui bono? Maybe China is more of a string-puller than you give them credit for. Americans who are skeptical of Ukraine involvement also wonder about their President's family corruption in China.
If I'm reading your article correctly, you predicted the collapse of Ukraine in summer 2023. As we are closer to summer 2024, it could be very interesting if you revisited your past articles and analysed them in retrospective.