With war, it is always the elites. The people will never directly benefit from war, just die and suffer. Sadly, the people are all too easily led to believe that war is in their interests, hence a ll the lies spread by elites to propagandise their own people. If we had a rule that the elites, the ones making the decision to go to war, were the ones fighting and dying, there would never be wars.
I disagree with that assessment. There are (historic) times where elites and people do fight in unison and profit from it together. This might even be happening in Russia right now.
An sich, there is not much 'wrong' with suffering and dying, as long as it is for the well being of your tribe. The idee that suffering for the tribe is bad is one of the reasons the west is going down into obscurity.
To be sure, the western elite is definitely NOT worth suffering for. Not is the current state of affairs in the west. But I can tell you that once men truly experience the feeling of belonging, they will be willing to suffer (and risk dying) for the tribe (and its elite) gladly.
Excellent analysis! It’s rare that in one place I read something that pulls in so many pieces in a coherent whole.
Unlike you unfortunately I am not optimistic of the prospects of WW3. Not only do I think it will happen, I think it will happen earlier in 2027 and the US won’t let go that easy.
Don’t count on the American people to do anything. In fact they might end up cheering the war. Not because they’re bad people but they are so ignorant and misled that they can’t understand the game.
Also, the elites that run the US don’t care about Americans and they understand very well that if they lose Europe and Asia they will turn their parasitic nature on their own people, causing a complete collapse of the US. They don’t want that obviously but they have no choice; it’s in their nature. So for them they see one way only, and that way is more and bigger war.
The US is not a normal country like Serbia or Russia (or even Poland) is. It is a mishmash of competing ideology with a very thin veneer of patriotism and years of top-down psychopathic exploitation has conditioned many to think that way. I’m afraid - and I wish I could see it any other way for the sake of normal simple Americans - that a clear and devastating US defeat is the only way for this to stop. But will there be a world remaining? I don’t know .. I give it 50/50.
For this happen it must be made clear to the “owners” of the USA (as George Carlin likes to call them) that there is no way to victory and that they personally stand to lose wealth, power, and their life if they persist. That or they’re replaced with a real government by the people of the USA and not this facade.... I think the former is possible, the later unlikely.
I very much look forward to your upcoming articles. Thank you.
My recent article on News Forensics argues that WWIII is already here. Wars are never just military-- the are economic, informational, moral, technological as well This WW is "hybrid". When people talk about "WWIII" they are talking about wars like WWI and WWII . That kind of war is obsolete. Nuclear war is unrealistic because everybody loses. WWIII is really Biden's War, a Neocon "con" to channel money to the media and MIC. As I write on News Forensics -- Great comments Mike. As I wrote in my recent article, the US
MIC needs wars to stay profitable. Ukraine is losing. The Russians likely not want or need Galicia. Let the Western Ukrainians go there and let the Poles try and deal with them. Belarus is anothe matter, of course. The US -- Biden at least-- would love to see the Poles fight the Russians. But since the Russians would win handily, the Poles will not be so ambitious.
By Normal I mean a country with its own long history and culture. USA is a young country and has changed drastically in the last 100 or so years, and those changes diluted the sense of identity it once had.
That’s what I mean by normal. Not perfect - no place on earth is.
Great insight! As all wars are economic, I believe that armed conflict in Asia as minimal, at best. The creation of BRICS+, SCO, North-South Corridor, New Silk Road, &c. Will lead to the economic collapse of the dollar hegemony, especially since the US' "wealth," is on a foundation of sand (debt). Many people in the US will suffer the consequences of bad economic policy since 1913. However, there are many of us that see what is coming and will survive self-sufficiently.
One request: I know that you are very busy and have 2023 mapped out. I, and others I would assume, would benefit about Serbian history. Our "knowledge," comes from corrupt education and media entities. Would you be able to write a brief post on Serbian history (not the centuries of history, that would take years 😊) in light of the current events and in light of your thoughtful projections?
Hi TBP. My suggestion is to watch "The weight of Chains" doco by Boris Malagurski. There's also a part 2 and 3 - have a look at the 'fimography' tab on his web site - https://weightofchains.ca
I'm sorry for my late response. As you said, I'm very busy.
Thank you for your great comment.
There is a certain reason why I do not write about Serbia.
Because I'm emotionally occupied...
I couldn't write objectively, as I do about geopolitics and the war in Ukraine.
In fact I would write something, with which I wouldn't be satisfied from an objective standpoint and with a very low quality. I have personal experience with the tragedy happened in Yugoslavia, which doesn't allow me to be objective here.
Although Vucic in the last 3-4 months are using more nationalistic rethoric and least verbally seem to stand up to NATO and K-FOR. Even though he quickly backs down when NATO answers back.
Thank you Aleks. I wish I wasn't so naïve to hope that some of the EU countries and US citizens will just say "No" to the oligarchs. I doubt we can get rid of them, but hopefully they will crawl back into their hole. I've been wondering for decades why "growth" is necessary. Isn't it possible to produce enough to meet our needs and leave it at that? I remember speaking with a family who moved to Ecuador- they thought they could buy the used furniture and equipment they needed once they arrived. Afterward, they realized there are no used furniture stores. Furniture, equipment, appliances and automobiles are refurbished and continue to operate. There is little waste or excess. I'm glad you're optimistic about WW3 - no one wants that!! My best to you - ~Cairenn
Growth is a necessity since we have to pay for the interest on all the credit. If there was no usury there would be no need for growth and we wouldn't have to destroy the planet in order to feed the parasites...
Yes! And, to top it off they don't teach the basics of money in school. Credit card companies are predatory, and give them out freely to college students. There are still people who believe The Federal Reserve is a government agency. CBDCs are confused with some kind of new CBD oil. And worse yet, is that many people think their pension accounts are safe. I had a fruitless conversation with a friend about what he calls useless "pet rocks" -- gold. But, severe pain is a true catalyst and motivator.
This is 'gold bug' nonsense: it is possible to use money more than once, its called velocity, i.e. those in receipt of interest payments can spend them back into the economy enabling that money to then get spent again, over and over on interest or on whatever.
What about all the biolabs in the Ukraine? Certainly these were funded with the anticipation of using them against any and all of the Empire of Lies imagined enemies.
Thank you very much. The best analysis and summary I have ever read. I wish it would be spread more widely in the West. And I am always wondering what kind of exit strategy all these warmongering MFs in the western mass media have, which are trying to tell us all the time, that Russia is loosing in the Ukraine.
great piece, as always, NATO (No Action Talks Only) like any local bully pick fights that can win easily, they will coward down, russia will not stop, even if they enter odessa, russia allow it in siria, just because is not that important and the government is safe from the locals minions, but not odessa, that's something that putin will not tolerate. agree with you if russia manage to collect a 2million soldier army, brussel will be the ultimate goal.
The future is described with a broad brush but this is how predictions should be made.
The key are the break-points listed that should be monitored by those who want to understand when any of presented scenarios start being more probable over the others.
Thank you for still being optimistic that WW3 can be avoided - and that there are still back-office meetings that can sort out things before problems erupt.
Very good analysis, Alek! I'm glad you didn't really take the that time off like you said in a previous article. We will need your articles, big things are coming with the imminent fall of Bakhmut.
Maybe WWIII has already started and all that remains to be determined is whether or not the combatants have the sense to keep the conflict conventional?
When WW2 started in 1939 the people didn't know that it is a world war or that it will be a world war.
Maybe we are in the same phase. But what is crucial, we still have all options left, to prevent it to happen. Or to expand into a world wide conventional conflict. Which would eventually anyway lead into a nuclear exchange.
Hi Alex. Covid, like all these big global events (eg 911), has many participants ( Klaus' 'stakeholders') all with their many, often overlapping, agendas. The western governments, knowing their financial system is going to collapse, fear democratic revolution from the vicitms, and certainly see CBDCs as the way to implement massive control over the masses (ie their opposition), whilst maintaining the illusion of democracy. Of course, big pharma want their profits, and the WEF mob want to depopulate the masses whom they see as an existential threat to their power. (They may even want to preserve the ecology of the planet, but that is a point of contention - if climate change were real, they would exaggerate it, and if it weren't real, they would invent it just for the massive control it gives them.) Thats my simplified take on it - I'm sure there are many more complicated aspects to it.
Wow! What a great article. Lonnnnnnnnnnnnngggg...but oh so comprehensive. I particularly liked your comments of the Odessa Moment and the Western Ukraine Moment (connection to Hungary and Serbia). There is a MOUNTAIN of good stuff here, which I will be quoting in future articles on my own Substack page News Forensics. Actually, this article is really 5 or 6. I think you are correct in your prediction that Russian will carry out gradual attrition of the Ukrainian army until there is no one left to fight -- and also the population of Western Ukraine is in dire need of help, which only Russia can supply. "Ukraine" will cease to exist. Instead you will have Novorossiya. "Ukraine" will be Galicia, which really doesn't have much of anything. As for the West's gifts of weapons....LOL. Much ado about nothing as I write here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/much-ado-about-nothing-western-wunderwaffen.
Wider European instability has been driven by the absence of a land-bridge between its two major naturally complementary states (Germany & Russia) 1st by geography (Poland) and 2nd by the intervention of outside powers (France, UK, USA) to maintain that status.
A land-bridge via Hungary is probably a primary goal of the SMO, but it will still not correct that larger problem. Russia->Hungary->Austria->Germany will still be subject to the future vagaries of those intervening states.
A direct connection is only possible via ring-fencing Poland and establishing an Upper Silesian corridor.
The question is, will Poland provide the excuse for the Russians to cross their border in order to establish one?
LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.
Cui bono? Maybe China is more of a string-puller than you give them credit for. Americans who are skeptical of Ukraine involvement also wonder about their President's family corruption in China.
If I'm reading your article correctly, you predicted the collapse of Ukraine in summer 2023. As we are closer to summer 2024, it could be very interesting if you revisited your past articles and analysed them in retrospective.
Its a good thing that Putin seems to realize that it is not the western people that wish to see harm to Russia, but the western elites.
With war, it is always the elites. The people will never directly benefit from war, just die and suffer. Sadly, the people are all too easily led to believe that war is in their interests, hence a ll the lies spread by elites to propagandise their own people. If we had a rule that the elites, the ones making the decision to go to war, were the ones fighting and dying, there would never be wars.
I disagree with that assessment. There are (historic) times where elites and people do fight in unison and profit from it together. This might even be happening in Russia right now.
An sich, there is not much 'wrong' with suffering and dying, as long as it is for the well being of your tribe. The idee that suffering for the tribe is bad is one of the reasons the west is going down into obscurity.
To be sure, the western elite is definitely NOT worth suffering for. Not is the current state of affairs in the west. But I can tell you that once men truly experience the feeling of belonging, they will be willing to suffer (and risk dying) for the tribe (and its elite) gladly.
Excellent analysis! It’s rare that in one place I read something that pulls in so many pieces in a coherent whole.
Unlike you unfortunately I am not optimistic of the prospects of WW3. Not only do I think it will happen, I think it will happen earlier in 2027 and the US won’t let go that easy.
Don’t count on the American people to do anything. In fact they might end up cheering the war. Not because they’re bad people but they are so ignorant and misled that they can’t understand the game.
Also, the elites that run the US don’t care about Americans and they understand very well that if they lose Europe and Asia they will turn their parasitic nature on their own people, causing a complete collapse of the US. They don’t want that obviously but they have no choice; it’s in their nature. So for them they see one way only, and that way is more and bigger war.
The US is not a normal country like Serbia or Russia (or even Poland) is. It is a mishmash of competing ideology with a very thin veneer of patriotism and years of top-down psychopathic exploitation has conditioned many to think that way. I’m afraid - and I wish I could see it any other way for the sake of normal simple Americans - that a clear and devastating US defeat is the only way for this to stop. But will there be a world remaining? I don’t know .. I give it 50/50.
I understand exactly what you mean and I appreciate your comment and opinion.
But I'm still not concerned more then 10% :-)
To be honest... let's hope that I am right and not you :-)
I also hope YOU are right and I’m wrong :)
For this happen it must be made clear to the “owners” of the USA (as George Carlin likes to call them) that there is no way to victory and that they personally stand to lose wealth, power, and their life if they persist. That or they’re replaced with a real government by the people of the USA and not this facade.... I think the former is possible, the later unlikely.
I very much look forward to your upcoming articles. Thank you.
My recent article on News Forensics argues that WWIII is already here. Wars are never just military-- the are economic, informational, moral, technological as well This WW is "hybrid". When people talk about "WWIII" they are talking about wars like WWI and WWII . That kind of war is obsolete. Nuclear war is unrealistic because everybody loses. WWIII is really Biden's War, a Neocon "con" to channel money to the media and MIC. As I write on News Forensics -- Great comments Mike. As I wrote in my recent article, the US
MIC needs wars to stay profitable. Ukraine is losing. The Russians likely not want or need Galicia. Let the Western Ukrainians go there and let the Poles try and deal with them. Belarus is anothe matter, of course. The US -- Biden at least-- would love to see the Poles fight the Russians. But since the Russians would win handily, the Poles will not be so ambitious.
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/bidens-war-wwiii
Calling Serbia a normal country shows that you have no clue
By Normal I mean a country with its own long history and culture. USA is a young country and has changed drastically in the last 100 or so years, and those changes diluted the sense of identity it once had.
That’s what I mean by normal. Not perfect - no place on earth is.
"The Phoenix". Not very subtle there are you? ;)
The name predates the war and is not in reference to Russia
War is never subtle!
Great insight! As all wars are economic, I believe that armed conflict in Asia as minimal, at best. The creation of BRICS+, SCO, North-South Corridor, New Silk Road, &c. Will lead to the economic collapse of the dollar hegemony, especially since the US' "wealth," is on a foundation of sand (debt). Many people in the US will suffer the consequences of bad economic policy since 1913. However, there are many of us that see what is coming and will survive self-sufficiently.
One request: I know that you are very busy and have 2023 mapped out. I, and others I would assume, would benefit about Serbian history. Our "knowledge," comes from corrupt education and media entities. Would you be able to write a brief post on Serbian history (not the centuries of history, that would take years 😊) in light of the current events and in light of your thoughtful projections?
Cheers from Cheyenne!
Hi TBP. My suggestion is to watch "The weight of Chains" doco by Boris Malagurski. There's also a part 2 and 3 - have a look at the 'fimography' tab on his web site - https://weightofchains.ca
Thank you Poo! I've purchased them and will squeeze them into my days. Hope you're well.
I'm sorry for my late response. As you said, I'm very busy.
Thank you for your great comment.
There is a certain reason why I do not write about Serbia.
Because I'm emotionally occupied...
I couldn't write objectively, as I do about geopolitics and the war in Ukraine.
In fact I would write something, with which I wouldn't be satisfied from an objective standpoint and with a very low quality. I have personal experience with the tragedy happened in Yugoslavia, which doesn't allow me to be objective here.
I hope you understand that.
Aleks:
Thank you for your honesty. No worries on late response, as I have done the same 🙂. In lieu of your wisdom, have you any resourses?
I hope you've been and will continue to be in good health.
That is easy. You know what they say: A person is intelligent but a mob is stupid.
Serbians like many Balkan people are self sabotaging idiots. Too emotional and unrealistic.
Prone to corruption and harsh decisions.
Their history reflects that. Full of violence, war and financial calamities.
Their government supports Ukraine and the independence of Kosovo while most of the people feel quite the opposite. A confused country.
Their Government in a puppet regime of NATO
Although Vucic in the last 3-4 months are using more nationalistic rethoric and least verbally seem to stand up to NATO and K-FOR. Even though he quickly backs down when NATO answers back.
Thank you Aleks. I wish I wasn't so naïve to hope that some of the EU countries and US citizens will just say "No" to the oligarchs. I doubt we can get rid of them, but hopefully they will crawl back into their hole. I've been wondering for decades why "growth" is necessary. Isn't it possible to produce enough to meet our needs and leave it at that? I remember speaking with a family who moved to Ecuador- they thought they could buy the used furniture and equipment they needed once they arrived. Afterward, they realized there are no used furniture stores. Furniture, equipment, appliances and automobiles are refurbished and continue to operate. There is little waste or excess. I'm glad you're optimistic about WW3 - no one wants that!! My best to you - ~Cairenn
Growth is a necessity since we have to pay for the interest on all the credit. If there was no usury there would be no need for growth and we wouldn't have to destroy the planet in order to feed the parasites...
Yes! And, to top it off they don't teach the basics of money in school. Credit card companies are predatory, and give them out freely to college students. There are still people who believe The Federal Reserve is a government agency. CBDCs are confused with some kind of new CBD oil. And worse yet, is that many people think their pension accounts are safe. I had a fruitless conversation with a friend about what he calls useless "pet rocks" -- gold. But, severe pain is a true catalyst and motivator.
This is 'gold bug' nonsense: it is possible to use money more than once, its called velocity, i.e. those in receipt of interest payments can spend them back into the economy enabling that money to then get spent again, over and over on interest or on whatever.
What about all the biolabs in the Ukraine? Certainly these were funded with the anticipation of using them against any and all of the Empire of Lies imagined enemies.
Thank you very much. The best analysis and summary I have ever read. I wish it would be spread more widely in the West. And I am always wondering what kind of exit strategy all these warmongering MFs in the western mass media have, which are trying to tell us all the time, that Russia is loosing in the Ukraine.
Wow thank you. What a great comment.
I hope you will like my next articles as well :-)
great piece, as always, NATO (No Action Talks Only) like any local bully pick fights that can win easily, they will coward down, russia will not stop, even if they enter odessa, russia allow it in siria, just because is not that important and the government is safe from the locals minions, but not odessa, that's something that putin will not tolerate. agree with you if russia manage to collect a 2million soldier army, brussel will be the ultimate goal.
Good read.
The future is described with a broad brush but this is how predictions should be made.
The key are the break-points listed that should be monitored by those who want to understand when any of presented scenarios start being more probable over the others.
Thank you for still being optimistic that WW3 can be avoided - and that there are still back-office meetings that can sort out things before problems erupt.
Look forward to next updates
wojtek
Very good analysis, Alek! I'm glad you didn't really take the that time off like you said in a previous article. We will need your articles, big things are coming with the imminent fall of Bakhmut.
Absolutely outstanding analysis. I can confirm this 100%. The best thing I have read in a long time. Many thanks for this, greetings from Switzerland.
Wow, thanks. Great comment :-)
Maybe WWIII has already started and all that remains to be determined is whether or not the combatants have the sense to keep the conflict conventional?
Well...
When WW2 started in 1939 the people didn't know that it is a world war or that it will be a world war.
Maybe we are in the same phase. But what is crucial, we still have all options left, to prevent it to happen. Or to expand into a world wide conventional conflict. Which would eventually anyway lead into a nuclear exchange.
If would be nice if you could explain the COVID role in this geo strategic context.
COVID is a hornets nest... :-)
I wouldn't want to trigger it^^
Only one very neutral comment...
Color revolutions worldwide mostly starting because of some real problems and then the West hijacks it to insert own puppets.
It looks like we experienced something similar.
There was a pandemic (everyone needs to judge for himself how severe it was) and it was hijacked but certain interest groups to achieve certain goals.
That's all I have to say.
Oh yes, my father almost died because of COVID so I'm not someone how don't believe that there was a pandemic or a virus.
May be. when the war is over, its a subject worth exploring with your level of depth and clarity...
Hi Alex. Covid, like all these big global events (eg 911), has many participants ( Klaus' 'stakeholders') all with their many, often overlapping, agendas. The western governments, knowing their financial system is going to collapse, fear democratic revolution from the vicitms, and certainly see CBDCs as the way to implement massive control over the masses (ie their opposition), whilst maintaining the illusion of democracy. Of course, big pharma want their profits, and the WEF mob want to depopulate the masses whom they see as an existential threat to their power. (They may even want to preserve the ecology of the planet, but that is a point of contention - if climate change were real, they would exaggerate it, and if it weren't real, they would invent it just for the massive control it gives them.) Thats my simplified take on it - I'm sure there are many more complicated aspects to it.
Wow! What a great article. Lonnnnnnnnnnnnngggg...but oh so comprehensive. I particularly liked your comments of the Odessa Moment and the Western Ukraine Moment (connection to Hungary and Serbia). There is a MOUNTAIN of good stuff here, which I will be quoting in future articles on my own Substack page News Forensics. Actually, this article is really 5 or 6. I think you are correct in your prediction that Russian will carry out gradual attrition of the Ukrainian army until there is no one left to fight -- and also the population of Western Ukraine is in dire need of help, which only Russia can supply. "Ukraine" will cease to exist. Instead you will have Novorossiya. "Ukraine" will be Galicia, which really doesn't have much of anything. As for the West's gifts of weapons....LOL. Much ado about nothing as I write here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/much-ado-about-nothing-western-wunderwaffen.
Thanks Julian, as always :-)
I very much appreciate your comments and your blog!
Wider European instability has been driven by the absence of a land-bridge between its two major naturally complementary states (Germany & Russia) 1st by geography (Poland) and 2nd by the intervention of outside powers (France, UK, USA) to maintain that status.
A land-bridge via Hungary is probably a primary goal of the SMO, but it will still not correct that larger problem. Russia->Hungary->Austria->Germany will still be subject to the future vagaries of those intervening states.
A direct connection is only possible via ring-fencing Poland and establishing an Upper Silesian corridor.
The question is, will Poland provide the excuse for the Russians to cross their border in order to establish one?
You are absolutely right.
Wait for my article about Asia.
It might give some answers.
At least how I see them.
Of course I could be wrong.
LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that the only way for Moscow to ensure a lasting peace with Ukraine was to push back the borders of hostile states as far as possible, even if that meant the frontiers of NATO member Poland.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-floats-idea-pushing-back-polands-borders-2023-02-24/
Yes... it is frightening to see how reality confirms my analysis...
Cui bono? Maybe China is more of a string-puller than you give them credit for. Americans who are skeptical of Ukraine involvement also wonder about their President's family corruption in China.
Wait for my China article:)
Great comment Norstadt - made me laugh! Ta.
If I'm reading your article correctly, you predicted the collapse of Ukraine in summer 2023. As we are closer to summer 2024, it could be very interesting if you revisited your past articles and analysed them in retrospective.
Yes, you're right.
I've planned that anyway. I'll do that soon.