War economy is impossible in the EU: countries in recession or with no growth(stats are faked),very high debts, interest rates going up again, inflation soon, oil price due mea crisis, no manpower, I mean skilled one. Salaries, social costs much higher than in Russia or even in the US. England(UK) is collapsing(debts, unemployment..) though even less. Don't forget that if WWIII is really in the pipeline, China will be forced to help otherwise they are the next to fall and final US target.Helping and investing on Russia victory is now a MUST for XI (meeting at highest level in May, VVP going to Beijing like the famous meeting during Chinese Olympics in feb 22, before smo was started).For sure to get green light for something big after.
Mobilisation in Europe, sorry but will not happen with the woke crowd, suddenly they will cancel their ukr flag on their FB profile.I don't know one single person who is going to die for Zelensky here in my country (nato + EU capital), zero motivation, life is too confortable, even private elites are against(don't want to lose their fat profits or risk death of destruction even of infras).
Only politicos, and not all in Western EU and corrupted journos are full on WWIII, but it is more P R than reality, armchairs wardlords.
People have just enough of Ukraine 24/7 for two years. Holidays, euro foot in Germany then Olympics in Paris (but in various other big cities, even in ..Tahiti).Then will rapidly reach autumn with the return of rain.
Energy prices are very high, some people can only eat once a day now, not sure they will support this much longer. Bastille day 1789 happened as 'le peuple' did not have even bread anymore to eat.
No need for millions to revolt for regime change, Bastille was taken by a few thousands or even less motivated people with nothing to lose.
It may happen in Napoleonmacron country remember yellow vests.
Won't happen in protestants countries not their mentality.
In summary except a few nazis or crazies will go to ukraine to fight(or try), but Official military may well be forced to go, but with which weapons, ammo? Motivation will be near zero as it is not the business of defending your own country as it is for Ukrainians and Russians.
Many small and medium EU countries have very little army, no more weapons or very little.
Muslim population in EU will not go to fight, they came to Europe for a better life not to die for Blackrock, Macron, Zelensky or even less for VDleyen and co..
But one advice for RU it is time now to stop allowing all red lines to be crossed. West only understand force otherwise they take it for weakness.
And another item is, don't forget the satanists Net and yahoo clique ready for even much more stupid things with their armageddon govt looking for the 'temple' and their 'messaiah'...eventhough Iran is a hard take, the only muslim country which defends Gaza( Houthis as well).WWIII may start there with totaly irationnal people in power.
"As predicted by me and several other analysts, the Ukrainian army was defeated and destroyed. After such a defeat, a collapse usually follows. And it would have followed, under military logic. The problem is found somewhere else. "
The problem is simple, a Russian leadership that dithers and lacks the stomach to do what it takes to win. They are still hoping for a relatively amicable outcome here. Russia does not want to make war on Ukraine, whom they still see as sadly misguided brothers. Nor do they want to make war on the West. They want to join the West.
And yes, WWIII is coming as a result of Russian indecision. NATO has already invested too much material and diplomatic support to be able to back out now, and the sociopaths who rule NATO will kill all of us before they give up their perches. This abuse of The Sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional.
Regarding "I couldn’t imagine in my worst nightmare the degree of betrayal of the “Ukrainian” leadership against their own people" -- I hate to say this, but this on the surface -- just look at WHO the so called "leadership" in the Ukraine is....
Ethnically they are ALL jews (Ashkenazi / Khazars, to be exact). 80-90% of them!
- The dick-on-piano-jew zelenski, most of his "deputies",
- Most of the so called "ministers" in the zelenski government,
- 75-80% of the Rada ("parliament"),
- the mayor of Kiev,
- the previous "president",
- all previous "prime ministers",
- etc. etc.
So, the mistake made here is that the "leadership" does not consider Ukranians "their own people" -- they are just "goyim", beasts to be slaughtered (rad their Talmud -- that's their instruction manual). The same as Russia's population. The same as the US population. The same as the sheeple in Europe.
Who is behind this war? Who is behind all previous world wars?!!!!! Open your eyes!!!!
Thank You, Aleks. I have read and appreciated that in full, now.
It seems to me that a "World War" involves the restructuring of global trade and finance.
This World War differs as it is not particularly between competing colonialist empires, but rather between the decline of financial-colonialism, under the Petrodollar regime, and the more egalitarian (less extractive) populist concept of BRICS+.
This is an efficiency gradient to drive the change. It will be more efficient for smaller economies to be freed-up from suppression to extract resources and cheap labor.
The globalists must take the loss as the system becomes more distributed and more egalitarian, less dependent for survival upon shiploads of grain to Egypt from the American Midwest, for instance.
Flashing to WW-3 in the Mideast is what Netanyahu is desperate for, but his desire must be starved.
I have seen that there is sudden resentment in Ukraine that Israel gets everything and Ukraine gets nothing. This is a threat to ally with Russia, of course. Suddenly Congress is moving on that $60 billion spending bill...
Russia is running a marathon into the flow of history. China, too. Iran is smiling while it runs.
By the way, Iranian response "within seconds" to an Israeli attack with a new weapons system sounds like upgraded Iranian air defenses, presumably with Russian and Chinese targeting of incoming Israeli jets.
"I’d say, unfortunately, that more than half of the indicators are already reality:"
Yes, but a West that has decided to accept defeat and negotiate a peace over the next month would be predicted to provide half the indicators (half-heartedly at least) as well. It would need to show that it does have a plan B even if it doesn't have a plan B. Without a pretend Plan B it can't even have pretend negotiations.
When I look at my male cellphoneclutchers here in Germany. They're supposed to lie in a trench with a rifle for days on end in sub-zero temperatures defending 'their' country? Seriously? When their cell phone battery runs out, their world comes to an end.
The military-oligarch gang is more likely to expropriate everyone here. Take their houses, land and cars and then sell them to the USA for a profit. That's how it looks.
I would say it will be similar in Holland, Poland and Austria. If they can still make any decisions at all because of all the jabs.
I would like to take the comment that all it would take is “one extreme media event and people in Germany would take up arms again” as an opportunity
to say a few words about the current situation here in Germany.
About myself: I am male, in my mid-50s and live with my family (6 people) in a rural area. I come from a technical engineering background, had my own company for 10 years and no longer work. So I take care of the house and farm.
The year is 2024, spring has given us another nice frost, so some of the young plants have died. But the BBQ grill is back in operation. That's important!
It's also important that some craftsmen have to take care of a few things here.
A house needs a new roof. A bathroom needs doing and the lawn tractor is broken again.
(One of those orange ride-on mowers made in the USA). But it's not possible, because you can't get a handyman anymore. They either no longer respond to customer inquiries at all, or reply with absurd asking prices or moan that they no longer have people who are willing or able to do the work(!).
The prices for building materials are still extremely high. I would estimate that building materials, e.g. sheet metal, copper pipes, fittings, electrical materials, etc., are around 40-60% more expensive than they were 5 years ago. The labor costs that the craftsmen then call out are also absurd.
And again and again “we have no people”. When asked where the people are, because they were there at some point, the following statement is usually made:
“So many are permanently ill or don't feel like working anymore. When we look at new people who are still willing to come in for an interview, they're either totally stupid, cheeky or are just glued to their smartphone or e-cigarette. At the slightest announcement, they quit or simply stay at home.”
“I could get good people, but they want an extra 1000 a month and a company car. How am I supposed to pass that on to my customers? Nobody will pay that.”
So I'll renovate the bathroom myself, repair the lawn tractor myself and wait another year for the new roof.
Food prices are at least 50% higher than 5 years ago. Hardly anyone buys a new car privately. If they do, then at most as a lease or a high-quality used car. Usually a diesel with a long life expectancy. Electric cars are frowned upon. It may be different in the city, but other people live there too.
When you talk to people, they always say “why should I work there? in the end there's nothing left, the state is ripping us all off”.
(Note: if you add up all non-wage labor costs and taxes, you effectively only have just under 30% of your salary left over. The rest goes on various taxes. Who is supposed to save anything with that?)
It's election time at the moment. Teachers at our children's schools are urging them to vote for the right thing.
Even 16-year-olds are allowed to vote in the European elections. As it seems that too many of the boys and girls would rather vote for the AFD, the campaigns are being stepped up to ask them to vote for the Greens or the Reds.
The Greens used to stand for peace and environmental protection.
Today they stand for war and destruction. They no longer have anything to do with the environment.
The Reds used to be something like 'For the workers'. Today they stand for the mafia.
Will that work? I will also vote AFD. Although I don't like some people in this party and find them more than unsympathetic.
Purely a protest. But I doubt whether this party will change anything in the end. In the end, it's just a party, and if the state is broke, where will the money come from? I just hope that they don't ruin anything else. I'm hoping for a brake on impoverishment, so to speak, and that the Reds and Greens no longer play a role in government.
On the subject of companies in Germany. I can no longer recommend anyone to set up a company in Germany. The harassment with the “how many LGPT unicorns work for you? Are your product lines green? What CO2 emissions does your production have, sustainability laws where the penalties for violating them are extreme, supply chain laws where external people/agencies issue you with a certificate for €50,000/year that you've done everything right”. That's just absurd. Just don't do it anymore.
My hope is that the first countries will leave the EU in the next year or two. And at some point this whole unspeakable planned economy construct that is the EU will fly apart.
There are large numbers of disillusioned people here. Those who only think “save yourself if you can, save the rest of your assets” (there are rumours of a major expropriation by the state. Compulsory levies on houses). and there is a large group of people who no longer understand anything. The infantiles.
You can tell them any nonsense through newspapers and TV. They really believe everything.
The age of the respective people varies greatly. But would these infantiles
would go to war for your country in two to three years' time? I have strong doubts.
Too many of them, even the young ones, are simply too broken for that. Physically and mentally.
There are hardly any stores left in the small town near us. Sure, there are the big
grocery chains like Aldi, Lidl and Rewe. But in the town center, most of the shop windows are
covered with paper from the inside. It's been like this for a few years now. Every now and then a
store closes again. I only go into town for groceries myself. Otherwise I avoid the area as much as I can.
If I do have to go to Bonn or Cologne, for example, I only see frustrated women on cargo bikes.
Bearded young men with lots of boredom and frustrated tired people.
So much cancer in 20 year olds. Adult-onset diabetes in people under 30. Maybe that's
why so many people are being imported from North Africa? So that they can do the simple
jobs here? Or go to war for this country? Will they do that? I have strong doubts about that too.
In short - everything here has been gradually falling apart for around 30 years. I don't
see much hope for my children that they will all be able to live in their own house or afford
anything financially one day. We try to cushion this by passing on knowledge and skills (manual dexterity).
I also think that they have come to realize that a future life in Germany doesn't necessarily have to be. A few words of English and an open-minded look at other countries is not the worst thing. With this in mind.
A good article, logical and well argued. Alas I think I agree with your analysis, except (as a European) I judge the risk of a non-NATO war with Russia slightly higher than 10%. Let us hope that we see more sanity from European leaders than we have become accustmed to recently. Certainly Eurpean populations are being "prepped" for a war with Russia. The narrative seems to have shifted in the last two years from "we must support Ukraine" to "we are now really at war with Russia, or soon will be". Well I don't sense that anyone I speak to wants WW3, and this whole move rises from a catastrophic misjudgement by European leaders. You have to wonder what hold the USA has over them, they cannot be so stupid except if compromised.
I am sure Russia could advance much faster than it is now if wanted to. They have so much superiority in the number of drones, glide bombs, artillery, rocket artillery, etc. The only reason the Russians don't do this is now, because it is more effective for them to destroy the soldiers and equipment that this Ukrainian regime keeps funneling into these meat grinders, like Bakhmut, Avdeevka, and now Chasov Yar.
One of the most important things in this war is the appearance of drones. At first, one would think that this made an offensive impossible, since it's easy to destroy the attacking tanks and infantry with it. And this is partly true. However, actually it made defense even more difficult. The party that can produce more drones will win, and in this, the Russians are better by orders of magnitude. The Russians now produce 50-60 thousand FPV drones a month, the Ukrainians only 10 thousand.
It is no longer necessary to physically surround a stronghold with infantry and tanks, but the attacker can block supply routes with FPV drones. With these cheap FPV drones, which are already equipped with thermal or infrared cameras, the Russian Army can easily block the supply route of a settlement. Especially for smaller settlements, villages and towns. It only takes to cover a few kilometres to prevent Ukrainian supply and it will be impossible to defend a settlement. If that happens, the Ukrainian garrison simply runs out of ammunition, food, drinking water, and they are forced to retreat, or surrender. Of course, it would be much more difficult to do this with a larger city like, say, Kharkov, as it would require many more drones, but I think it will be possible in the future.
War economy is impossible in the EU: countries in recession or with no growth(stats are faked),very high debts, interest rates going up again, inflation soon, oil price due mea crisis, no manpower, I mean skilled one. Salaries, social costs much higher than in Russia or even in the US. England(UK) is collapsing(debts, unemployment..) though even less. Don't forget that if WWIII is really in the pipeline, China will be forced to help otherwise they are the next to fall and final US target.Helping and investing on Russia victory is now a MUST for XI (meeting at highest level in May, VVP going to Beijing like the famous meeting during Chinese Olympics in feb 22, before smo was started).For sure to get green light for something big after.
Mobilisation in Europe, sorry but will not happen with the woke crowd, suddenly they will cancel their ukr flag on their FB profile.I don't know one single person who is going to die for Zelensky here in my country (nato + EU capital), zero motivation, life is too confortable, even private elites are against(don't want to lose their fat profits or risk death of destruction even of infras).
Only politicos, and not all in Western EU and corrupted journos are full on WWIII, but it is more P R than reality, armchairs wardlords.
People have just enough of Ukraine 24/7 for two years. Holidays, euro foot in Germany then Olympics in Paris (but in various other big cities, even in ..Tahiti).Then will rapidly reach autumn with the return of rain.
Energy prices are very high, some people can only eat once a day now, not sure they will support this much longer. Bastille day 1789 happened as 'le peuple' did not have even bread anymore to eat.
No need for millions to revolt for regime change, Bastille was taken by a few thousands or even less motivated people with nothing to lose.
It may happen in Napoleonmacron country remember yellow vests.
Won't happen in protestants countries not their mentality.
In summary except a few nazis or crazies will go to ukraine to fight(or try), but Official military may well be forced to go, but with which weapons, ammo? Motivation will be near zero as it is not the business of defending your own country as it is for Ukrainians and Russians.
Many small and medium EU countries have very little army, no more weapons or very little.
Muslim population in EU will not go to fight, they came to Europe for a better life not to die for Blackrock, Macron, Zelensky or even less for VDleyen and co..
But one advice for RU it is time now to stop allowing all red lines to be crossed. West only understand force otherwise they take it for weakness.
And another item is, don't forget the satanists Net and yahoo clique ready for even much more stupid things with their armageddon govt looking for the 'temple' and their 'messaiah'...eventhough Iran is a hard take, the only muslim country which defends Gaza( Houthis as well).WWIII may start there with totaly irationnal people in power.
"As predicted by me and several other analysts, the Ukrainian army was defeated and destroyed. After such a defeat, a collapse usually follows. And it would have followed, under military logic. The problem is found somewhere else. "
The problem is simple, a Russian leadership that dithers and lacks the stomach to do what it takes to win. They are still hoping for a relatively amicable outcome here. Russia does not want to make war on Ukraine, whom they still see as sadly misguided brothers. Nor do they want to make war on the West. They want to join the West.
And yes, WWIII is coming as a result of Russian indecision. NATO has already invested too much material and diplomatic support to be able to back out now, and the sociopaths who rule NATO will kill all of us before they give up their perches. This abuse of The Sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional.
Regarding "I couldn’t imagine in my worst nightmare the degree of betrayal of the “Ukrainian” leadership against their own people" -- I hate to say this, but this on the surface -- just look at WHO the so called "leadership" in the Ukraine is....
Ethnically they are ALL jews (Ashkenazi / Khazars, to be exact). 80-90% of them!
- The dick-on-piano-jew zelenski, most of his "deputies",
- Most of the so called "ministers" in the zelenski government,
- 75-80% of the Rada ("parliament"),
- the mayor of Kiev,
- the previous "president",
- all previous "prime ministers",
- etc. etc.
So, the mistake made here is that the "leadership" does not consider Ukranians "their own people" -- they are just "goyim", beasts to be slaughtered (rad their Talmud -- that's their instruction manual). The same as Russia's population. The same as the US population. The same as the sheeple in Europe.
Who is behind this war? Who is behind all previous world wars?!!!!! Open your eyes!!!!
Thank You, Aleks. I have read and appreciated that in full, now.
It seems to me that a "World War" involves the restructuring of global trade and finance.
This World War differs as it is not particularly between competing colonialist empires, but rather between the decline of financial-colonialism, under the Petrodollar regime, and the more egalitarian (less extractive) populist concept of BRICS+.
This is an efficiency gradient to drive the change. It will be more efficient for smaller economies to be freed-up from suppression to extract resources and cheap labor.
The globalists must take the loss as the system becomes more distributed and more egalitarian, less dependent for survival upon shiploads of grain to Egypt from the American Midwest, for instance.
Flashing to WW-3 in the Mideast is what Netanyahu is desperate for, but his desire must be starved.
I have seen that there is sudden resentment in Ukraine that Israel gets everything and Ukraine gets nothing. This is a threat to ally with Russia, of course. Suddenly Congress is moving on that $60 billion spending bill...
Russia is running a marathon into the flow of history. China, too. Iran is smiling while it runs.
By the way, Iranian response "within seconds" to an Israeli attack with a new weapons system sounds like upgraded Iranian air defenses, presumably with Russian and Chinese targeting of incoming Israeli jets.
;-)
"I’d say, unfortunately, that more than half of the indicators are already reality:"
Yes, but a West that has decided to accept defeat and negotiate a peace over the next month would be predicted to provide half the indicators (half-heartedly at least) as well. It would need to show that it does have a plan B even if it doesn't have a plan B. Without a pretend Plan B it can't even have pretend negotiations.
Tie Fighters? You wrote Tie Fighters????
Oh My.... Sir... Now You really are a brother!!!!!
:)
Wish I could be a jedi... and a good one... to help and try to end this idiocy. And to end Vicky the Hutt...
When I look at my male cellphoneclutchers here in Germany. They're supposed to lie in a trench with a rifle for days on end in sub-zero temperatures defending 'their' country? Seriously? When their cell phone battery runs out, their world comes to an end.
The military-oligarch gang is more likely to expropriate everyone here. Take their houses, land and cars and then sell them to the USA for a profit. That's how it looks.
I would say it will be similar in Holland, Poland and Austria. If they can still make any decisions at all because of all the jabs.
I would like to take the comment that all it would take is “one extreme media event and people in Germany would take up arms again” as an opportunity
to say a few words about the current situation here in Germany.
About myself: I am male, in my mid-50s and live with my family (6 people) in a rural area. I come from a technical engineering background, had my own company for 10 years and no longer work. So I take care of the house and farm.
The year is 2024, spring has given us another nice frost, so some of the young plants have died. But the BBQ grill is back in operation. That's important!
It's also important that some craftsmen have to take care of a few things here.
A house needs a new roof. A bathroom needs doing and the lawn tractor is broken again.
(One of those orange ride-on mowers made in the USA). But it's not possible, because you can't get a handyman anymore. They either no longer respond to customer inquiries at all, or reply with absurd asking prices or moan that they no longer have people who are willing or able to do the work(!).
The prices for building materials are still extremely high. I would estimate that building materials, e.g. sheet metal, copper pipes, fittings, electrical materials, etc., are around 40-60% more expensive than they were 5 years ago. The labor costs that the craftsmen then call out are also absurd.
And again and again “we have no people”. When asked where the people are, because they were there at some point, the following statement is usually made:
“So many are permanently ill or don't feel like working anymore. When we look at new people who are still willing to come in for an interview, they're either totally stupid, cheeky or are just glued to their smartphone or e-cigarette. At the slightest announcement, they quit or simply stay at home.”
“I could get good people, but they want an extra 1000 a month and a company car. How am I supposed to pass that on to my customers? Nobody will pay that.”
So I'll renovate the bathroom myself, repair the lawn tractor myself and wait another year for the new roof.
Food prices are at least 50% higher than 5 years ago. Hardly anyone buys a new car privately. If they do, then at most as a lease or a high-quality used car. Usually a diesel with a long life expectancy. Electric cars are frowned upon. It may be different in the city, but other people live there too.
When you talk to people, they always say “why should I work there? in the end there's nothing left, the state is ripping us all off”.
(Note: if you add up all non-wage labor costs and taxes, you effectively only have just under 30% of your salary left over. The rest goes on various taxes. Who is supposed to save anything with that?)
It's election time at the moment. Teachers at our children's schools are urging them to vote for the right thing.
Even 16-year-olds are allowed to vote in the European elections. As it seems that too many of the boys and girls would rather vote for the AFD, the campaigns are being stepped up to ask them to vote for the Greens or the Reds.
The Greens used to stand for peace and environmental protection.
Today they stand for war and destruction. They no longer have anything to do with the environment.
The Reds used to be something like 'For the workers'. Today they stand for the mafia.
Will that work? I will also vote AFD. Although I don't like some people in this party and find them more than unsympathetic.
Purely a protest. But I doubt whether this party will change anything in the end. In the end, it's just a party, and if the state is broke, where will the money come from? I just hope that they don't ruin anything else. I'm hoping for a brake on impoverishment, so to speak, and that the Reds and Greens no longer play a role in government.
On the subject of companies in Germany. I can no longer recommend anyone to set up a company in Germany. The harassment with the “how many LGPT unicorns work for you? Are your product lines green? What CO2 emissions does your production have, sustainability laws where the penalties for violating them are extreme, supply chain laws where external people/agencies issue you with a certificate for €50,000/year that you've done everything right”. That's just absurd. Just don't do it anymore.
My hope is that the first countries will leave the EU in the next year or two. And at some point this whole unspeakable planned economy construct that is the EU will fly apart.
There are large numbers of disillusioned people here. Those who only think “save yourself if you can, save the rest of your assets” (there are rumours of a major expropriation by the state. Compulsory levies on houses). and there is a large group of people who no longer understand anything. The infantiles.
You can tell them any nonsense through newspapers and TV. They really believe everything.
The age of the respective people varies greatly. But would these infantiles
would go to war for your country in two to three years' time? I have strong doubts.
Too many of them, even the young ones, are simply too broken for that. Physically and mentally.
There are hardly any stores left in the small town near us. Sure, there are the big
grocery chains like Aldi, Lidl and Rewe. But in the town center, most of the shop windows are
covered with paper from the inside. It's been like this for a few years now. Every now and then a
store closes again. I only go into town for groceries myself. Otherwise I avoid the area as much as I can.
If I do have to go to Bonn or Cologne, for example, I only see frustrated women on cargo bikes.
Bearded young men with lots of boredom and frustrated tired people.
So much cancer in 20 year olds. Adult-onset diabetes in people under 30. Maybe that's
why so many people are being imported from North Africa? So that they can do the simple
jobs here? Or go to war for this country? Will they do that? I have strong doubts about that too.
In short - everything here has been gradually falling apart for around 30 years. I don't
see much hope for my children that they will all be able to live in their own house or afford
anything financially one day. We try to cushion this by passing on knowledge and skills (manual dexterity).
I also think that they have come to realize that a future life in Germany doesn't necessarily have to be. A few words of English and an open-minded look at other countries is not the worst thing. With this in mind.
Peter.
Outstanding article! Thank you very much for this great piece analysis!
A good article, logical and well argued. Alas I think I agree with your analysis, except (as a European) I judge the risk of a non-NATO war with Russia slightly higher than 10%. Let us hope that we see more sanity from European leaders than we have become accustmed to recently. Certainly Eurpean populations are being "prepped" for a war with Russia. The narrative seems to have shifted in the last two years from "we must support Ukraine" to "we are now really at war with Russia, or soon will be". Well I don't sense that anyone I speak to wants WW3, and this whole move rises from a catastrophic misjudgement by European leaders. You have to wonder what hold the USA has over them, they cannot be so stupid except if compromised.
Your 'comeback' is on form. Thank you.
Excellent article
Every time I see the president of France's name, my eyes skip a cog and I read "President Maricón".
The ante continues to climb, and none of us will be better off for it.
Great work as usual
thanks
I am sure Russia could advance much faster than it is now if wanted to. They have so much superiority in the number of drones, glide bombs, artillery, rocket artillery, etc. The only reason the Russians don't do this is now, because it is more effective for them to destroy the soldiers and equipment that this Ukrainian regime keeps funneling into these meat grinders, like Bakhmut, Avdeevka, and now Chasov Yar.
One of the most important things in this war is the appearance of drones. At first, one would think that this made an offensive impossible, since it's easy to destroy the attacking tanks and infantry with it. And this is partly true. However, actually it made defense even more difficult. The party that can produce more drones will win, and in this, the Russians are better by orders of magnitude. The Russians now produce 50-60 thousand FPV drones a month, the Ukrainians only 10 thousand.
It is no longer necessary to physically surround a stronghold with infantry and tanks, but the attacker can block supply routes with FPV drones. With these cheap FPV drones, which are already equipped with thermal or infrared cameras, the Russian Army can easily block the supply route of a settlement. Especially for smaller settlements, villages and towns. It only takes to cover a few kilometres to prevent Ukrainian supply and it will be impossible to defend a settlement. If that happens, the Ukrainian garrison simply runs out of ammunition, food, drinking water, and they are forced to retreat, or surrender. Of course, it would be much more difficult to do this with a larger city like, say, Kharkov, as it would require many more drones, but I think it will be possible in the future.