War economy is impossible in the EU: countries in recession or with no growth(stats are faked),very high debts, interest rates going up again, inflation soon, oil price due mea crisis, no manpower, I mean skilled one. Salaries, social costs much higher than in Russia or even in the US. England(UK) is collapsing(debts, unemployment..) though even less. Don't forget that if WWIII is really in the pipeline, China will be forced to help otherwise they are the next to fall and final US target.Helping and investing on Russia victory is now a MUST for XI (meeting at highest level in May, VVP going to Beijing like the famous meeting during Chinese Olympics in feb 22, before smo was started).For sure to get green light for something big after.
Mobilisation in Europe, sorry but will not happen with the woke crowd, suddenly they will cancel their ukr flag on their FB profile.I don't know one single person who is going to die for Zelensky here in my country (nato + EU capital), zero motivation, life is too confortable, even private elites are against(don't want to lose their fat profits or risk death of destruction even of infras).
Only politicos, and not all in Western EU and corrupted journos are full on WWIII, but it is more P R than reality, armchairs wardlords.
People have just enough of Ukraine 24/7 for two years. Holidays, euro foot in Germany then Olympics in Paris (but in various other big cities, even in ..Tahiti).Then will rapidly reach autumn with the return of rain.
Energy prices are very high, some people can only eat once a day now, not sure they will support this much longer. Bastille day 1789 happened as 'le peuple' did not have even bread anymore to eat.
No need for millions to revolt for regime change, Bastille was taken by a few thousands or even less motivated people with nothing to lose.
It may happen in Napoleonmacron country remember yellow vests.
Won't happen in protestants countries not their mentality.
In summary except a few nazis or crazies will go to ukraine to fight(or try), but Official military may well be forced to go, but with which weapons, ammo? Motivation will be near zero as it is not the business of defending your own country as it is for Ukrainians and Russians.
Many small and medium EU countries have very little army, no more weapons or very little.
Muslim population in EU will not go to fight, they came to Europe for a better life not to die for Blackrock, Macron, Zelensky or even less for VDleyen and co..
But one advice for RU it is time now to stop allowing all red lines to be crossed. West only understand force otherwise they take it for weakness.
And another item is, don't forget the satanists Net and yahoo clique ready for even much more stupid things with their armageddon govt looking for the 'temple' and their 'messaiah'...eventhough Iran is a hard take, the only muslim country which defends Gaza( Houthis as well).WWIII may start there with totaly irationnal people in power.
Yes, the real nuclear option for Russia and her allies is not a bomb. It is financial. By re-valuing gold significantly upwards to more realistic levels, Russia and China could destroy the dollar and, with it, America's ability to wage war and bully the rest of the planet.
Destroying the dollar, on which "your" - THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN - charade depends on ... is nothing short of suicidal and VVP & Co. are more than capable to understand that. Sending the world into a tailspin is surely not "helpful" to any of the participants of THE SELF-DELUSION to keep it going - to keep the smoke and mirrors alive/the house of cards upright.
What BMA & Co. are analysing is the upper layer of the froth on top of a "million miles" deep ocean of HELL! THE MAJORITY is simply so mesmerized by its own PRIDE to admit it. Exactly as all the participants, which these analysis's refer to, that obviously successfully pretend to be in charge - as they truly have convinced themselves about their role in history without consulting their CREATOR first - which they are not, but mere puppets in the hand of GOD ALMIGHTY!
Your mind is caught up in the petty (fact, not to demean you) games allowed by GOD ALMIGHTY to be planted by THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN/MONEY/HALF-TRUTHS/LIES in the world ... which is why your mind is perceiving REALITY in terms of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN - Russia/US - which it is absolutely NOT. IT IS SO MUCH BIGGER - GOD ALMIGHTY'S WISDOM MIGHT GRACE AND PURPOSE is so much bigger than anything what HIS CREATION - man's mind - will ever be able to perceive, unless it SERVES GOD ALMIGHTY'S WISDOM MIGHT GRACE AND PURPOSE!
THE WAY THE TRUTH AND THE LIFE ONLY - THE ONE AND ONLY INCARNATION OF GOD ALMIGHTY AND SHEPHERD AND SAVIOUR THE LORD JESUS CHRIST AND THE HOLY SPIRIT FOREVER AND EVER - AMEN HALLELU-YAH - SOLI DEO GLORIA!
Nonsense. I see a the blogs the constant re-iteration that Europe is collapsing economically. Meanwhile all the stock market averages hit new highs today. Granted markets are manipulated, but you can’t go from 1929 to all time highs unless the collapse is overstated wishful thinking.
"As predicted by me and several other analysts, the Ukrainian army was defeated and destroyed. After such a defeat, a collapse usually follows. And it would have followed, under military logic. The problem is found somewhere else. "
The problem is simple, a Russian leadership that dithers and lacks the stomach to do what it takes to win. They are still hoping for a relatively amicable outcome here. Russia does not want to make war on Ukraine, whom they still see as sadly misguided brothers. Nor do they want to make war on the West. They want to join the West.
And yes, WWIII is coming as a result of Russian indecision. NATO has already invested too much material and diplomatic support to be able to back out now, and the sociopaths who rule NATO will kill all of us before they give up their perches. This abuse of The Sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional.
What is winning? Maybe the Russians don’t believe flattening Ukraine is a win. Plus any big moves play into western propaganda. Look what big bad Russia did! Russian restraint is strategic.
Russia can choose. Either flatten Ukraine or allow the West to win, that is, to use Ukraine for its own purposes. Hint: the West cares nothing about Ukraine, except as a foil to Russia. Take away Russia and Ukraine would be a pariah state.
The US flattened Iraq, Syria and Libya, to name a couple, and it didn't affect their international standing a bit. That said, had Russia used adequate force from the outset, Ukraine would need a lot less flattening that it needs now.
Relying on western reasonableness and humanitarianism was a massive miscalculation on the part of Russia.
Yes. Flattening Ukraine is precisely what US wants - think of the photo opportunities. Instead western media either have to show pictures of war cities with no population or report how a single civilian was injured alongside a completely destroyed hotel (and don't mention the mercenaries).
As I said: the West has flattened lots of countries, and they are busy flattening an concentration camp known as "Gaza". Didn't and doesn't affect their international standing a bit.
It does make you wonder what all those discussions in the 70s and 80s were about - could or should have US bombed the German concentration camps? Quite ironic today.
There were plenty of articles on the topic, TV documentaries even. largely based around the ideas of could or should the west have known, and would they have ended up killing more jews than they saved.
No one ever questioned whether we had a duty to prevent genocide.
Well, it is the typical sofa mushroom powered by fluorescent lights with Napoleonic delusions .. I would put those people to create and manage a small company of only 5 people in the real productive sector and then .. well, then they won't have time for stupid delusions anymore ..
Regarding "I couldn’t imagine in my worst nightmare the degree of betrayal of the “Ukrainian” leadership against their own people" -- I hate to say this, but this on the surface -- just look at WHO the so called "leadership" in the Ukraine is....
Ethnically they are ALL jews (Ashkenazi / Khazars, to be exact). 80-90% of them!
- The dick-on-piano-jew zelenski, most of his "deputies",
- Most of the so called "ministers" in the zelenski government,
- 75-80% of the Rada ("parliament"),
- the mayor of Kiev,
- the previous "president",
- all previous "prime ministers",
- etc. etc.
So, the mistake made here is that the "leadership" does not consider Ukranians "their own people" -- they are just "goyim", beasts to be slaughtered (rad their Talmud -- that's their instruction manual). The same as Russia's population. The same as the US population. The same as the sheeple in Europe.
Who is behind this war? Who is behind all previous world wars?!!!!! Open your eyes!!!!
Bolshevik Revolution: The Jewish Bolsheviks, who took over the Russian government in the 1910s, killed 66 million Christians, including 200,000 members of the Christian clergy, and destroyed 40,000 churches.
World War 1: Britain was losing the war against Germany. The Zionists stepped in and manipulated President Wilson to get the US into the war to help them. In return, the Jews asked the British Empire to deed them Palestine to create Israel. Their wish was granted in the form of the Balfour Declaration of 1917, which cost the world 18 million dead.
World War 2: The Zionists fomented that war (just like they’re doing today with Iran and other countries in the Middle East), so that European Jews could feel threatened. The deception worked as European Jews fled in droves to Palestine and took over the homes of Palestinians, who were evicted at gunpoint and then either massacred or driven out of their land into neighboring Arab countries. With enough Jews on the ground, Israel was created in 1948 at a cost of 80 million dead.
World War On Terror: Zionist/Jewish neocons, in cahoots with their bought-and-paid-for politicians in the US government, perpetrated their act of terrorism on 9/11. Then they conveniently blamed it on Muslims so as to obtain a green light to destroy the Middle East using the armies of the US and NATO and the terrorist groups they finance, with the ultimate view to creating Greater Israel. So far, the death toll is 27 million, including Christians.
World War 3: With Russia protecting Syria and Iran from Israel’s Machiavellian design, will the Zionists succeed in bringing the world once again to the brink of disaster to create Greater Israel? If they do, will it instead bring about their downfall?
Thank You, Aleks. I have read and appreciated that in full, now.
It seems to me that a "World War" involves the restructuring of global trade and finance.
This World War differs as it is not particularly between competing colonialist empires, but rather between the decline of financial-colonialism, under the Petrodollar regime, and the more egalitarian (less extractive) populist concept of BRICS+.
This is an efficiency gradient to drive the change. It will be more efficient for smaller economies to be freed-up from suppression to extract resources and cheap labor.
The globalists must take the loss as the system becomes more distributed and more egalitarian, less dependent for survival upon shiploads of grain to Egypt from the American Midwest, for instance.
Flashing to WW-3 in the Mideast is what Netanyahu is desperate for, but his desire must be starved.
I have seen that there is sudden resentment in Ukraine that Israel gets everything and Ukraine gets nothing. This is a threat to ally with Russia, of course. Suddenly Congress is moving on that $60 billion spending bill...
Russia is running a marathon into the flow of history. China, too. Iran is smiling while it runs.
By the way, Iranian response "within seconds" to an Israeli attack with a new weapons system sounds like upgraded Iranian air defenses, presumably with Russian and Chinese targeting of incoming Israeli jets.
"I’d say, unfortunately, that more than half of the indicators are already reality:"
Yes, but a West that has decided to accept defeat and negotiate a peace over the next month would be predicted to provide half the indicators (half-heartedly at least) as well. It would need to show that it does have a plan B even if it doesn't have a plan B. Without a pretend Plan B it can't even have pretend negotiations.
Yes, but not enough to make a real difference... sadly :(
A level more seriously, Sir... Wish You could find the time to read a guy named Geert Vanden Bossche on substack.
I believe he's a top notch professional, and the latest news he published (from april 10th on) are quite scary for the wellbeing or societal collapse.
Don't forget that Coruscant choose to have their own slaves poisoned... just a couple years before the SMO.
I strongly believe that all was planned by them... and I am curious of Your take if I may, from an economical point of view... military reindustrialization my ass... only wishful thinking if Geert is right.
So, maybe something to consider in the equation....
I would like to take the comment that all it would take is “one extreme media event and people in Germany would take up arms again” as an opportunity
to say a few words about the current situation here in Germany.
About myself: I am male, in my mid-50s and live with my family (6 people) in a rural area. I come from a technical engineering background, had my own company for 10 years and no longer work. So I take care of the house and farm.
The year is 2024, spring has given us another nice frost, so some of the young plants have died. But the BBQ grill is back in operation. That's important!
It's also important that some craftsmen have to take care of a few things here.
A house needs a new roof. A bathroom needs doing and the lawn tractor is broken again.
(One of those orange ride-on mowers made in the USA). But it's not possible, because you can't get a handyman anymore. They either no longer respond to customer inquiries at all, or reply with absurd asking prices or moan that they no longer have people who are willing or able to do the work(!).
The prices for building materials are still extremely high. I would estimate that building materials, e.g. sheet metal, copper pipes, fittings, electrical materials, etc., are around 40-60% more expensive than they were 5 years ago. The labor costs that the craftsmen then call out are also absurd.
And again and again “we have no people”. When asked where the people are, because they were there at some point, the following statement is usually made:
“So many are permanently ill or don't feel like working anymore. When we look at new people who are still willing to come in for an interview, they're either totally stupid, cheeky or are just glued to their smartphone or e-cigarette. At the slightest announcement, they quit or simply stay at home.”
“I could get good people, but they want an extra 1000 a month and a company car. How am I supposed to pass that on to my customers? Nobody will pay that.”
So I'll renovate the bathroom myself, repair the lawn tractor myself and wait another year for the new roof.
Food prices are at least 50% higher than 5 years ago. Hardly anyone buys a new car privately. If they do, then at most as a lease or a high-quality used car. Usually a diesel with a long life expectancy. Electric cars are frowned upon. It may be different in the city, but other people live there too.
When you talk to people, they always say “why should I work there? in the end there's nothing left, the state is ripping us all off”.
(Note: if you add up all non-wage labor costs and taxes, you effectively only have just under 30% of your salary left over. The rest goes on various taxes. Who is supposed to save anything with that?)
It's election time at the moment. Teachers at our children's schools are urging them to vote for the right thing.
Even 16-year-olds are allowed to vote in the European elections. As it seems that too many of the boys and girls would rather vote for the AFD, the campaigns are being stepped up to ask them to vote for the Greens or the Reds.
The Greens used to stand for peace and environmental protection.
Today they stand for war and destruction. They no longer have anything to do with the environment.
The Reds used to be something like 'For the workers'. Today they stand for the mafia.
Will that work? I will also vote AFD. Although I don't like some people in this party and find them more than unsympathetic.
Purely a protest. But I doubt whether this party will change anything in the end. In the end, it's just a party, and if the state is broke, where will the money come from? I just hope that they don't ruin anything else. I'm hoping for a brake on impoverishment, so to speak, and that the Reds and Greens no longer play a role in government.
On the subject of companies in Germany. I can no longer recommend anyone to set up a company in Germany. The harassment with the “how many LGPT unicorns work for you? Are your product lines green? What CO2 emissions does your production have, sustainability laws where the penalties for violating them are extreme, supply chain laws where external people/agencies issue you with a certificate for €50,000/year that you've done everything right”. That's just absurd. Just don't do it anymore.
My hope is that the first countries will leave the EU in the next year or two. And at some point this whole unspeakable planned economy construct that is the EU will fly apart.
There are large numbers of disillusioned people here. Those who only think “save yourself if you can, save the rest of your assets” (there are rumours of a major expropriation by the state. Compulsory levies on houses). and there is a large group of people who no longer understand anything. The infantiles.
You can tell them any nonsense through newspapers and TV. They really believe everything.
The age of the respective people varies greatly. But would these infantiles
would go to war for your country in two to three years' time? I have strong doubts.
Too many of them, even the young ones, are simply too broken for that. Physically and mentally.
There are hardly any stores left in the small town near us. Sure, there are the big
grocery chains like Aldi, Lidl and Rewe. But in the town center, most of the shop windows are
covered with paper from the inside. It's been like this for a few years now. Every now and then a
store closes again. I only go into town for groceries myself. Otherwise I avoid the area as much as I can.
If I do have to go to Bonn or Cologne, for example, I only see frustrated women on cargo bikes.
Bearded young men with lots of boredom and frustrated tired people.
So much cancer in 20 year olds. Adult-onset diabetes in people under 30. Maybe that's
why so many people are being imported from North Africa? So that they can do the simple
jobs here? Or go to war for this country? Will they do that? I have strong doubts about that too.
In short - everything here has been gradually falling apart for around 30 years. I don't
see much hope for my children that they will all be able to live in their own house or afford
anything financially one day. We try to cushion this by passing on knowledge and skills (manual dexterity).
I also think that they have come to realize that a future life in Germany doesn't necessarily have to be. A few words of English and an open-minded look at other countries is not the worst thing. With this in mind.
I have read your analysis and agree with 99% of it. i disagree with the 1%:
You write that with an insignificant exporter and impoverished Germany, the goods are once again increasingly flowing from the USA to Europe/Germany.
That may be true, but only on condition that there is enough capital to pay for these goods. Especially when it comes to consumer goods. but the usa will not offer its goods for free. Therefore, this usa-idea will fail.
Finally, I would like to point out that I have had the impression for a few years now that people are trying (or are automatically) to move more and more people away from the manufacturing industry into the service sector. In other words: we no longer manufacture anything here, we just provide people with services. In the future, however, robots will take care of everything. Then we won't need these people any more. Yiiiha :-)
When I look at my male cellphoneclutchers here in Germany. They're supposed to lie in a trench with a rifle for days on end in sub-zero temperatures defending 'their' country? Seriously? When their cell phone battery runs out, their world comes to an end.
The military-oligarch gang is more likely to expropriate everyone here. Take their houses, land and cars and then sell them to the USA for a profit. That's how it looks.
I would say it will be similar in Holland, Poland and Austria. If they can still make any decisions at all because of all the jabs.
That's right. I like the term 'cellphone clutchers' :D :D :D. I wrote about this a year ago... It doesn't really matter.
All it takes is a tripwire event (such as the killing of French soldiers in Odessa, for example) to activate the Western media machine. This could start an unprecedented media war campaign, perhaps the likes of which we've only seen between 1939 and 1945, and make it the number one topic everywhere.
The first to be sent to the frontlines will be 'volunteers.' When they die and return in coffins, this will only intensify the media shit storm and stir up nationalist sentiments, which have been suppressed in Germany to this point. National consolidation might occur, and trainloads of soldiers could be shipped to the frontlines. This applies whether in a war with Russia or with other Europeans. That is the essence of a 'Tripwire' strategy.
I'm not saying that this will definitely happen. I'm merely outlining how you can mobilize people—be they 'cellphone clutchers,' 'soy boys,' or other 'Wookies' (woke individuals)—to march in unison to the frontlines, even though they might cry for their mothers while doing it. Yes, perhaps they will even take numerous selfies on the frontlines, if operational security permits. :D
It may be that something like this will happen in France and perhaps also in Germany.
But I am convinced that, at least in Germany, it will only be an attempt!
The German” (I have to write that in quotation marks because in my world there is no such thing as a German. Somewhere along the line, someone has at least one ancestor who comes from Belgium, Poland or the Czech Republic), like most other Europeans, has been deprived of the ability to defend themselves. The feeling of “I have to defend myself” against whatever, is practically non-existent.
This may be due to decades of junk TV, brain bending in local schools or the attitude “there's nothing you can do”.
I am convinced that something like World War 3 has long been underway. However, unlike in previous wars, you can hardly find any cannon fodder in the western world that is willing to fight. Except perhaps in Ukraine. But since the great redistribution of property and land is to be carried out without a big puff-paff-peng, it has to be done with an endless proxy war that consumes an incredible amount of energy, money and weapons. Otherwise the elites will be left naked. Because they have all been broke for a long time.
The real action is likely to take place around China and possibly in Iran.
Although I think that the Iran story is more of an Israel adventure: “Volk braucht Raum”. The Israelis have done well in history.
The USA will have to deal with China, otherwise it will be history. China wants to be the undisputed ruler of the world by 2049. They will try to achieve this through logistics, intelligence and cunning.
The USA has no chance against them! They know that and will get ahead of it. In fact, they have to. Otherwise they will go under. Europe, meanwhile, is being wound up. There's not much more to be gained there. You could also try a raid on Russia. But that could lead to another bloody nose.
Still, I think there will be attempts in Europe to mobilize the population. Whether that will succeed is an entirely different story, as you mentioned.
Regarding China, I will write my next article about it.
you don't need nor will nor knowledge of fighting to be mobilised into a war. Historically most of the mobilised men were young peasant boys, who had no prior war experience and even less a will to fight/die for often a foreign ruler _ as most of the empires were multinational/multiethnic therefore most of the mobilised were of different nationality or even faith than the ruler. but they were anyways (forcibly ) mobilised and died in millions. one of many cases are nations of former Austro-Hungaria and from British Empire or forcible mobilisations of men in countries occupied by third Reich. For instance, both of my grandfathers were mobilised by the last one, one sent to the Eastern front and another ("was lucky") and sent to the Western one (which was rare in our country as most men were sent to much harsher conditions on the East). There was no choice, as one would be shot in he would decline or/and the family sent to the concentration camp.
not so sure. maybe it is not a coincidence , but i anyway a lot of modern warfare is similar to video games (operating drones for instance) so it shouldn't be so hard for many guys glued to their screens (maybe that was one of the intents behind widespread growth of videogames....?)
A good article, logical and well argued. Alas I think I agree with your analysis, except (as a European) I judge the risk of a non-NATO war with Russia slightly higher than 10%. Let us hope that we see more sanity from European leaders than we have become accustmed to recently. Certainly Eurpean populations are being "prepped" for a war with Russia. The narrative seems to have shifted in the last two years from "we must support Ukraine" to "we are now really at war with Russia, or soon will be". Well I don't sense that anyone I speak to wants WW3, and this whole move rises from a catastrophic misjudgement by European leaders. You have to wonder what hold the USA has over them, they cannot be so stupid except if compromised.
It’s not the USA per se that has the hold imo. It’s a supranational elite some of whom are American. They don’t feel loyalty towards their own. In fact the opposite. They are better than ordinary people, and accordingly feel entitled to remake the world. The globalist fantasy has been around since WWII. All the fancy words can’t hide the fact that it’s essentially about financial control on a global scale. Politics is downstream from that. Those pushing and pulling the levers of war are not interested in nation states, because they want to transcend that old order. Nations are pawns in this game. It’s pretty clear that the dream will not be realized but that doesn’t mean the globalists will capitulate. The dream will not die until the money system can no longer support it. Imo of course
This is why NSA exists, to collect dirty things (kompromats) on all leaders even 'allies'. Macron is heavily loaded with sex, money laundering, corruption,swingers parties, he is gay, his wife(mother?) is a trans and a former pedophile, it is common knowledge in France but total censorship.
I started to write alternate lyrics to Beck's "Loser", riffing forward from substituting "in the time of Maricóns" in place of "in the time of chimpanzees". But it got too dark and I had to stop.
> I predicted the Ukrainian Army would be defeated and collapse by the Summer of 2023.
Internet is littered with corpses of analysts and commentators that predicted Ukraininan collapse. :) These days, I'm of the opinion it might happen, at earliest, in 2025. But it's safer to predict 2026. :)
USD will never disappear at worse it will remain US + some satellites liliput states money.Since I was born I have been hearing this charade...64 years ago.
But the Euro will go as their monetary zone is too weak and unequal.What do Portugal has in commun with Germany or Greece with the Dutchs? Answer: nothing.
Target saldo don't lie and it less easy for the ECB to go unlimited QE as for the Fed.
War economy is impossible in the EU: countries in recession or with no growth(stats are faked),very high debts, interest rates going up again, inflation soon, oil price due mea crisis, no manpower, I mean skilled one. Salaries, social costs much higher than in Russia or even in the US. England(UK) is collapsing(debts, unemployment..) though even less. Don't forget that if WWIII is really in the pipeline, China will be forced to help otherwise they are the next to fall and final US target.Helping and investing on Russia victory is now a MUST for XI (meeting at highest level in May, VVP going to Beijing like the famous meeting during Chinese Olympics in feb 22, before smo was started).For sure to get green light for something big after.
Mobilisation in Europe, sorry but will not happen with the woke crowd, suddenly they will cancel their ukr flag on their FB profile.I don't know one single person who is going to die for Zelensky here in my country (nato + EU capital), zero motivation, life is too confortable, even private elites are against(don't want to lose their fat profits or risk death of destruction even of infras).
Only politicos, and not all in Western EU and corrupted journos are full on WWIII, but it is more P R than reality, armchairs wardlords.
People have just enough of Ukraine 24/7 for two years. Holidays, euro foot in Germany then Olympics in Paris (but in various other big cities, even in ..Tahiti).Then will rapidly reach autumn with the return of rain.
Energy prices are very high, some people can only eat once a day now, not sure they will support this much longer. Bastille day 1789 happened as 'le peuple' did not have even bread anymore to eat.
No need for millions to revolt for regime change, Bastille was taken by a few thousands or even less motivated people with nothing to lose.
It may happen in Napoleonmacron country remember yellow vests.
Won't happen in protestants countries not their mentality.
In summary except a few nazis or crazies will go to ukraine to fight(or try), but Official military may well be forced to go, but with which weapons, ammo? Motivation will be near zero as it is not the business of defending your own country as it is for Ukrainians and Russians.
Many small and medium EU countries have very little army, no more weapons or very little.
Muslim population in EU will not go to fight, they came to Europe for a better life not to die for Blackrock, Macron, Zelensky or even less for VDleyen and co..
But one advice for RU it is time now to stop allowing all red lines to be crossed. West only understand force otherwise they take it for weakness.
And another item is, don't forget the satanists Net and yahoo clique ready for even much more stupid things with their armageddon govt looking for the 'temple' and their 'messaiah'...eventhough Iran is a hard take, the only muslim country which defends Gaza( Houthis as well).WWIII may start there with totaly irationnal people in power.
Yes, the real nuclear option for Russia and her allies is not a bomb. It is financial. By re-valuing gold significantly upwards to more realistic levels, Russia and China could destroy the dollar and, with it, America's ability to wage war and bully the rest of the planet.
Destroying the dollar, on which "your" - THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN - charade depends on ... is nothing short of suicidal and VVP & Co. are more than capable to understand that. Sending the world into a tailspin is surely not "helpful" to any of the participants of THE SELF-DELUSION to keep it going - to keep the smoke and mirrors alive/the house of cards upright.
What BMA & Co. are analysing is the upper layer of the froth on top of a "million miles" deep ocean of HELL! THE MAJORITY is simply so mesmerized by its own PRIDE to admit it. Exactly as all the participants, which these analysis's refer to, that obviously successfully pretend to be in charge - as they truly have convinced themselves about their role in history without consulting their CREATOR first - which they are not, but mere puppets in the hand of GOD ALMIGHTY!
what do you mean by:
Destroying the dollar, on which "your" - THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN - charade depends on ... is nothing short of suicidal ?
Have you ever heard of the expression HOUSE OF LIES/CARDS? ... that's the closest analogy I can come up right now.
SOLI DEO GLORIA!
suicidal for who? If for RU, what is the reason ?
Your mind is caught up in the petty (fact, not to demean you) games allowed by GOD ALMIGHTY to be planted by THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN/MONEY/HALF-TRUTHS/LIES in the world ... which is why your mind is perceiving REALITY in terms of THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN - Russia/US - which it is absolutely NOT. IT IS SO MUCH BIGGER - GOD ALMIGHTY'S WISDOM MIGHT GRACE AND PURPOSE is so much bigger than anything what HIS CREATION - man's mind - will ever be able to perceive, unless it SERVES GOD ALMIGHTY'S WISDOM MIGHT GRACE AND PURPOSE!
THE WAY THE TRUTH AND THE LIFE ONLY - THE ONE AND ONLY INCARNATION OF GOD ALMIGHTY AND SHEPHERD AND SAVIOUR THE LORD JESUS CHRIST AND THE HOLY SPIRIT FOREVER AND EVER - AMEN HALLELU-YAH - SOLI DEO GLORIA!
TAKE HEED EVERYONE!
I'd agree with this assessment.
30 years ago, a war was still possible, maybe even 20 years ago. But today, there is no stomach for war to be found anywhere.
Besides, Europe does not have the right demographics for it, and the migrants won't go and fight for Europe either.
Nonsense. I see a the blogs the constant re-iteration that Europe is collapsing economically. Meanwhile all the stock market averages hit new highs today. Granted markets are manipulated, but you can’t go from 1929 to all time highs unless the collapse is overstated wishful thinking.
"As predicted by me and several other analysts, the Ukrainian army was defeated and destroyed. After such a defeat, a collapse usually follows. And it would have followed, under military logic. The problem is found somewhere else. "
The problem is simple, a Russian leadership that dithers and lacks the stomach to do what it takes to win. They are still hoping for a relatively amicable outcome here. Russia does not want to make war on Ukraine, whom they still see as sadly misguided brothers. Nor do they want to make war on the West. They want to join the West.
And yes, WWIII is coming as a result of Russian indecision. NATO has already invested too much material and diplomatic support to be able to back out now, and the sociopaths who rule NATO will kill all of us before they give up their perches. This abuse of The Sunk Cost Fallacy is entirely intentional.
What is winning? Maybe the Russians don’t believe flattening Ukraine is a win. Plus any big moves play into western propaganda. Look what big bad Russia did! Russian restraint is strategic.
Russia can choose. Either flatten Ukraine or allow the West to win, that is, to use Ukraine for its own purposes. Hint: the West cares nothing about Ukraine, except as a foil to Russia. Take away Russia and Ukraine would be a pariah state.
The US flattened Iraq, Syria and Libya, to name a couple, and it didn't affect their international standing a bit. That said, had Russia used adequate force from the outset, Ukraine would need a lot less flattening that it needs now.
Relying on western reasonableness and humanitarianism was a massive miscalculation on the part of Russia.
Yes. Flattening Ukraine is precisely what US wants - think of the photo opportunities. Instead western media either have to show pictures of war cities with no population or report how a single civilian was injured alongside a completely destroyed hotel (and don't mention the mercenaries).
As I said: the West has flattened lots of countries, and they are busy flattening an concentration camp known as "Gaza". Didn't and doesn't affect their international standing a bit.
It does make you wonder what all those discussions in the 70s and 80s were about - could or should have US bombed the German concentration camps? Quite ironic today.
what discussions exactly?
There were plenty of articles on the topic, TV documentaries even. largely based around the ideas of could or should the west have known, and would they have ended up killing more jews than they saved.
No one ever questioned whether we had a duty to prevent genocide.
Oh my god, we have here a modern Alexander.
How could Putin ignore such a genius ?!!
Well, it is the typical sofa mushroom powered by fluorescent lights with Napoleonic delusions .. I would put those people to create and manage a small company of only 5 people in the real productive sector and then .. well, then they won't have time for stupid delusions anymore ..
Russia is running a marathon, not a sprint.
I've heard the excuses before and I find them unconvincing.
We've heard your extremist rhetoric before, too, and it is even less convincing.
Regarding "I couldn’t imagine in my worst nightmare the degree of betrayal of the “Ukrainian” leadership against their own people" -- I hate to say this, but this on the surface -- just look at WHO the so called "leadership" in the Ukraine is....
Ethnically they are ALL jews (Ashkenazi / Khazars, to be exact). 80-90% of them!
- The dick-on-piano-jew zelenski, most of his "deputies",
- Most of the so called "ministers" in the zelenski government,
- 75-80% of the Rada ("parliament"),
- the mayor of Kiev,
- the previous "president",
- all previous "prime ministers",
- etc. etc.
So, the mistake made here is that the "leadership" does not consider Ukranians "their own people" -- they are just "goyim", beasts to be slaughtered (rad their Talmud -- that's their instruction manual). The same as Russia's population. The same as the US population. The same as the sheeple in Europe.
Who is behind this war? Who is behind all previous world wars?!!!!! Open your eyes!!!!
Bolshevik Revolution: The Jewish Bolsheviks, who took over the Russian government in the 1910s, killed 66 million Christians, including 200,000 members of the Christian clergy, and destroyed 40,000 churches.
World War 1: Britain was losing the war against Germany. The Zionists stepped in and manipulated President Wilson to get the US into the war to help them. In return, the Jews asked the British Empire to deed them Palestine to create Israel. Their wish was granted in the form of the Balfour Declaration of 1917, which cost the world 18 million dead.
World War 2: The Zionists fomented that war (just like they’re doing today with Iran and other countries in the Middle East), so that European Jews could feel threatened. The deception worked as European Jews fled in droves to Palestine and took over the homes of Palestinians, who were evicted at gunpoint and then either massacred or driven out of their land into neighboring Arab countries. With enough Jews on the ground, Israel was created in 1948 at a cost of 80 million dead.
World War On Terror: Zionist/Jewish neocons, in cahoots with their bought-and-paid-for politicians in the US government, perpetrated their act of terrorism on 9/11. Then they conveniently blamed it on Muslims so as to obtain a green light to destroy the Middle East using the armies of the US and NATO and the terrorist groups they finance, with the ultimate view to creating Greater Israel. So far, the death toll is 27 million, including Christians.
World War 3: With Russia protecting Syria and Iran from Israel’s Machiavellian design, will the Zionists succeed in bringing the world once again to the brink of disaster to create Greater Israel? If they do, will it instead bring about their downfall?
https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/the-truth-about-the-conflict-with-russia/
The Jewish Bolsheviks, ........and destroyed 40,000 churches."
And not one synagogue. Fancy that!
Oooh you'll be accused of "anti-semitism" LOL
My first thought too.
Nuland/Kagan/Pyatt/Applebaum/Klaine/Blinken/Soros/Yellen/Johnson/Cameron/Shapps/Henri Lévy/Zelensky/Kolomoisky/Shmyhal/Groysman/Shefir/Rodnyansky/Poroshenko/Ariev/Mindich/Bogolyubov/Sirkus/Korban/Rabinovich/Korf/Laber/Kernes/Fuks/Yermak/Feldman/Pinchuk/Dolinsky/Fris/Goldstein...
Thank You, Aleks. I have read and appreciated that in full, now.
It seems to me that a "World War" involves the restructuring of global trade and finance.
This World War differs as it is not particularly between competing colonialist empires, but rather between the decline of financial-colonialism, under the Petrodollar regime, and the more egalitarian (less extractive) populist concept of BRICS+.
This is an efficiency gradient to drive the change. It will be more efficient for smaller economies to be freed-up from suppression to extract resources and cheap labor.
The globalists must take the loss as the system becomes more distributed and more egalitarian, less dependent for survival upon shiploads of grain to Egypt from the American Midwest, for instance.
Flashing to WW-3 in the Mideast is what Netanyahu is desperate for, but his desire must be starved.
I have seen that there is sudden resentment in Ukraine that Israel gets everything and Ukraine gets nothing. This is a threat to ally with Russia, of course. Suddenly Congress is moving on that $60 billion spending bill...
Russia is running a marathon into the flow of history. China, too. Iran is smiling while it runs.
By the way, Iranian response "within seconds" to an Israeli attack with a new weapons system sounds like upgraded Iranian air defenses, presumably with Russian and Chinese targeting of incoming Israeli jets.
;-)
Thank you, John. I fully agree with your assessment :-)
As St. Thomas said, "seeing is believing" ..
"I’d say, unfortunately, that more than half of the indicators are already reality:"
Yes, but a West that has decided to accept defeat and negotiate a peace over the next month would be predicted to provide half the indicators (half-heartedly at least) as well. It would need to show that it does have a plan B even if it doesn't have a plan B. Without a pretend Plan B it can't even have pretend negotiations.
Tie Fighters? You wrote Tie Fighters????
Oh My.... Sir... Now You really are a brother!!!!!
:)
Wish I could be a jedi... and a good one... to help and try to end this idiocy. And to end Vicky the Hutt...
Hahaha
The force is strong with you, Marco 🤣
Yes, but not enough to make a real difference... sadly :(
A level more seriously, Sir... Wish You could find the time to read a guy named Geert Vanden Bossche on substack.
I believe he's a top notch professional, and the latest news he published (from april 10th on) are quite scary for the wellbeing or societal collapse.
Don't forget that Coruscant choose to have their own slaves poisoned... just a couple years before the SMO.
I strongly believe that all was planned by them... and I am curious of Your take if I may, from an economical point of view... military reindustrialization my ass... only wishful thinking if Geert is right.
So, maybe something to consider in the equation....
I would like to take the comment that all it would take is “one extreme media event and people in Germany would take up arms again” as an opportunity
to say a few words about the current situation here in Germany.
About myself: I am male, in my mid-50s and live with my family (6 people) in a rural area. I come from a technical engineering background, had my own company for 10 years and no longer work. So I take care of the house and farm.
The year is 2024, spring has given us another nice frost, so some of the young plants have died. But the BBQ grill is back in operation. That's important!
It's also important that some craftsmen have to take care of a few things here.
A house needs a new roof. A bathroom needs doing and the lawn tractor is broken again.
(One of those orange ride-on mowers made in the USA). But it's not possible, because you can't get a handyman anymore. They either no longer respond to customer inquiries at all, or reply with absurd asking prices or moan that they no longer have people who are willing or able to do the work(!).
The prices for building materials are still extremely high. I would estimate that building materials, e.g. sheet metal, copper pipes, fittings, electrical materials, etc., are around 40-60% more expensive than they were 5 years ago. The labor costs that the craftsmen then call out are also absurd.
And again and again “we have no people”. When asked where the people are, because they were there at some point, the following statement is usually made:
“So many are permanently ill or don't feel like working anymore. When we look at new people who are still willing to come in for an interview, they're either totally stupid, cheeky or are just glued to their smartphone or e-cigarette. At the slightest announcement, they quit or simply stay at home.”
“I could get good people, but they want an extra 1000 a month and a company car. How am I supposed to pass that on to my customers? Nobody will pay that.”
So I'll renovate the bathroom myself, repair the lawn tractor myself and wait another year for the new roof.
Food prices are at least 50% higher than 5 years ago. Hardly anyone buys a new car privately. If they do, then at most as a lease or a high-quality used car. Usually a diesel with a long life expectancy. Electric cars are frowned upon. It may be different in the city, but other people live there too.
When you talk to people, they always say “why should I work there? in the end there's nothing left, the state is ripping us all off”.
(Note: if you add up all non-wage labor costs and taxes, you effectively only have just under 30% of your salary left over. The rest goes on various taxes. Who is supposed to save anything with that?)
It's election time at the moment. Teachers at our children's schools are urging them to vote for the right thing.
Even 16-year-olds are allowed to vote in the European elections. As it seems that too many of the boys and girls would rather vote for the AFD, the campaigns are being stepped up to ask them to vote for the Greens or the Reds.
The Greens used to stand for peace and environmental protection.
Today they stand for war and destruction. They no longer have anything to do with the environment.
The Reds used to be something like 'For the workers'. Today they stand for the mafia.
Will that work? I will also vote AFD. Although I don't like some people in this party and find them more than unsympathetic.
Purely a protest. But I doubt whether this party will change anything in the end. In the end, it's just a party, and if the state is broke, where will the money come from? I just hope that they don't ruin anything else. I'm hoping for a brake on impoverishment, so to speak, and that the Reds and Greens no longer play a role in government.
On the subject of companies in Germany. I can no longer recommend anyone to set up a company in Germany. The harassment with the “how many LGPT unicorns work for you? Are your product lines green? What CO2 emissions does your production have, sustainability laws where the penalties for violating them are extreme, supply chain laws where external people/agencies issue you with a certificate for €50,000/year that you've done everything right”. That's just absurd. Just don't do it anymore.
My hope is that the first countries will leave the EU in the next year or two. And at some point this whole unspeakable planned economy construct that is the EU will fly apart.
There are large numbers of disillusioned people here. Those who only think “save yourself if you can, save the rest of your assets” (there are rumours of a major expropriation by the state. Compulsory levies on houses). and there is a large group of people who no longer understand anything. The infantiles.
You can tell them any nonsense through newspapers and TV. They really believe everything.
The age of the respective people varies greatly. But would these infantiles
would go to war for your country in two to three years' time? I have strong doubts.
Too many of them, even the young ones, are simply too broken for that. Physically and mentally.
There are hardly any stores left in the small town near us. Sure, there are the big
grocery chains like Aldi, Lidl and Rewe. But in the town center, most of the shop windows are
covered with paper from the inside. It's been like this for a few years now. Every now and then a
store closes again. I only go into town for groceries myself. Otherwise I avoid the area as much as I can.
If I do have to go to Bonn or Cologne, for example, I only see frustrated women on cargo bikes.
Bearded young men with lots of boredom and frustrated tired people.
So much cancer in 20 year olds. Adult-onset diabetes in people under 30. Maybe that's
why so many people are being imported from North Africa? So that they can do the simple
jobs here? Or go to war for this country? Will they do that? I have strong doubts about that too.
In short - everything here has been gradually falling apart for around 30 years. I don't
see much hope for my children that they will all be able to live in their own house or afford
anything financially one day. We try to cushion this by passing on knowledge and skills (manual dexterity).
I also think that they have come to realize that a future life in Germany doesn't necessarily have to be. A few words of English and an open-minded look at other countries is not the worst thing. With this in mind.
Peter.
You just described the definition of the German word: "Standortattraktivität" 😁
Which is gone, in Germany...
Did you read my article about Germany? Economics and Empires 2? You should.. I described it in detail.
yiiiha - "Standortattraktivität" is gone!
I have read your analysis and agree with 99% of it. i disagree with the 1%:
You write that with an insignificant exporter and impoverished Germany, the goods are once again increasingly flowing from the USA to Europe/Germany.
That may be true, but only on condition that there is enough capital to pay for these goods. Especially when it comes to consumer goods. but the usa will not offer its goods for free. Therefore, this usa-idea will fail.
Finally, I would like to point out that I have had the impression for a few years now that people are trying (or are automatically) to move more and more people away from the manufacturing industry into the service sector. In other words: we no longer manufacture anything here, we just provide people with services. In the future, however, robots will take care of everything. Then we won't need these people any more. Yiiiha :-)
peter
When I look at my male cellphoneclutchers here in Germany. They're supposed to lie in a trench with a rifle for days on end in sub-zero temperatures defending 'their' country? Seriously? When their cell phone battery runs out, their world comes to an end.
The military-oligarch gang is more likely to expropriate everyone here. Take their houses, land and cars and then sell them to the USA for a profit. That's how it looks.
I would say it will be similar in Holland, Poland and Austria. If they can still make any decisions at all because of all the jabs.
That's right. I like the term 'cellphone clutchers' :D :D :D. I wrote about this a year ago... It doesn't really matter.
All it takes is a tripwire event (such as the killing of French soldiers in Odessa, for example) to activate the Western media machine. This could start an unprecedented media war campaign, perhaps the likes of which we've only seen between 1939 and 1945, and make it the number one topic everywhere.
The first to be sent to the frontlines will be 'volunteers.' When they die and return in coffins, this will only intensify the media shit storm and stir up nationalist sentiments, which have been suppressed in Germany to this point. National consolidation might occur, and trainloads of soldiers could be shipped to the frontlines. This applies whether in a war with Russia or with other Europeans. That is the essence of a 'Tripwire' strategy.
I'm not saying that this will definitely happen. I'm merely outlining how you can mobilize people—be they 'cellphone clutchers,' 'soy boys,' or other 'Wookies' (woke individuals)—to march in unison to the frontlines, even though they might cry for their mothers while doing it. Yes, perhaps they will even take numerous selfies on the frontlines, if operational security permits. :D
It may be that something like this will happen in France and perhaps also in Germany.
But I am convinced that, at least in Germany, it will only be an attempt!
The German” (I have to write that in quotation marks because in my world there is no such thing as a German. Somewhere along the line, someone has at least one ancestor who comes from Belgium, Poland or the Czech Republic), like most other Europeans, has been deprived of the ability to defend themselves. The feeling of “I have to defend myself” against whatever, is practically non-existent.
This may be due to decades of junk TV, brain bending in local schools or the attitude “there's nothing you can do”.
I am convinced that something like World War 3 has long been underway. However, unlike in previous wars, you can hardly find any cannon fodder in the western world that is willing to fight. Except perhaps in Ukraine. But since the great redistribution of property and land is to be carried out without a big puff-paff-peng, it has to be done with an endless proxy war that consumes an incredible amount of energy, money and weapons. Otherwise the elites will be left naked. Because they have all been broke for a long time.
The real action is likely to take place around China and possibly in Iran.
Although I think that the Iran story is more of an Israel adventure: “Volk braucht Raum”. The Israelis have done well in history.
The USA will have to deal with China, otherwise it will be history. China wants to be the undisputed ruler of the world by 2049. They will try to achieve this through logistics, intelligence and cunning.
The USA has no chance against them! They know that and will get ahead of it. In fact, they have to. Otherwise they will go under. Europe, meanwhile, is being wound up. There's not much more to be gained there. You could also try a raid on Russia. But that could lead to another bloody nose.
Good assessment. Thanks.
I agree with most of what you wrote.
Still, I think there will be attempts in Europe to mobilize the population. Whether that will succeed is an entirely different story, as you mentioned.
Regarding China, I will write my next article about it.
you don't need nor will nor knowledge of fighting to be mobilised into a war. Historically most of the mobilised men were young peasant boys, who had no prior war experience and even less a will to fight/die for often a foreign ruler _ as most of the empires were multinational/multiethnic therefore most of the mobilised were of different nationality or even faith than the ruler. but they were anyways (forcibly ) mobilised and died in millions. one of many cases are nations of former Austro-Hungaria and from British Empire or forcible mobilisations of men in countries occupied by third Reich. For instance, both of my grandfathers were mobilised by the last one, one sent to the Eastern front and another ("was lucky") and sent to the Western one (which was rare in our country as most men were sent to much harsher conditions on the East). There was no choice, as one would be shot in he would decline or/and the family sent to the concentration camp.
not so sure. maybe it is not a coincidence , but i anyway a lot of modern warfare is similar to video games (operating drones for instance) so it shouldn't be so hard for many guys glued to their screens (maybe that was one of the intents behind widespread growth of videogames....?)
A good article, logical and well argued. Alas I think I agree with your analysis, except (as a European) I judge the risk of a non-NATO war with Russia slightly higher than 10%. Let us hope that we see more sanity from European leaders than we have become accustmed to recently. Certainly Eurpean populations are being "prepped" for a war with Russia. The narrative seems to have shifted in the last two years from "we must support Ukraine" to "we are now really at war with Russia, or soon will be". Well I don't sense that anyone I speak to wants WW3, and this whole move rises from a catastrophic misjudgement by European leaders. You have to wonder what hold the USA has over them, they cannot be so stupid except if compromised.
It’s not the USA per se that has the hold imo. It’s a supranational elite some of whom are American. They don’t feel loyalty towards their own. In fact the opposite. They are better than ordinary people, and accordingly feel entitled to remake the world. The globalist fantasy has been around since WWII. All the fancy words can’t hide the fact that it’s essentially about financial control on a global scale. Politics is downstream from that. Those pushing and pulling the levers of war are not interested in nation states, because they want to transcend that old order. Nations are pawns in this game. It’s pretty clear that the dream will not be realized but that doesn’t mean the globalists will capitulate. The dream will not die until the money system can no longer support it. Imo of course
This is why NSA exists, to collect dirty things (kompromats) on all leaders even 'allies'. Macron is heavily loaded with sex, money laundering, corruption,swingers parties, he is gay, his wife(mother?) is a trans and a former pedophile, it is common knowledge in France but total censorship.
Outstanding article! Thank you very much for this great piece analysis!
Thanks so much!
Your 'comeback' is on form. Thank you.
Excellent article
Every time I see the president of France's name, my eyes skip a cog and I read "President Maricón".
In the time of maricones you can't expect anything else ..
@Hu Veja
I started to write alternate lyrics to Beck's "Loser", riffing forward from substituting "in the time of Maricóns" in place of "in the time of chimpanzees". But it got too dark and I had to stop.
https://youtu.be/6BbyNFonwBI?si=knMVdXre3iNgAAwW
Hehe me too. And he is a maricon.
The ante continues to climb, and none of us will be better off for it.
Great work as usual
thanks
> I predicted the Ukrainian Army would be defeated and collapse by the Summer of 2023.
Internet is littered with corpses of analysts and commentators that predicted Ukraininan collapse. :) These days, I'm of the opinion it might happen, at earliest, in 2025. But it's safer to predict 2026. :)
Also, are you keeping track of the hyperinflation of USD? FED is in a quasi-fiscal deficit and so far it's been unable to recover. If this keeps on going for too long, hyperinflation will enter the irreversible phase and erase USD from existence. See the comments I made here: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-122023-putin-and-zelensky/comment/45776511 (the thread which goes "I thought 2023 is bad already" and then Robert Lindsay) as well as https://gaiusbaltar.substack.com/p/repost-ww3-for-dummies/comment/46040092 which includes more links. Direct link to the most important article: https://snbchf.com/monetary-fiscal-policy/quasi-fiscal-deficits-hyperinflation/
USD will never disappear at worse it will remain US + some satellites liliput states money.Since I was born I have been hearing this charade...64 years ago.
But the Euro will go as their monetary zone is too weak and unequal.What do Portugal has in commun with Germany or Greece with the Dutchs? Answer: nothing.
Target saldo don't lie and it less easy for the ECB to go unlimited QE as for the Fed.