The path to the war in Ukraine

Circumstances that led to the escalation in Ukraine

Introduction

With this article I want to give an overview of events, that led to the current war in Ukraine.

Especially for people, that started to be interested in the events, surrounding Ukraine, since the start of the war. Nevertheless, I don’t want to give history lessons. I won’t go back to the events in WW2 (Bandera), or even further back what happened during the reign of the Czars. It should be an overview, that will give you most of the important information summarized in half an hour of reading.

Of course, you could get the feeling, that in some parts of the article some information is missing. That’s true. I intend to write many more articles, which will cover the whole story. So, feel free to check out my other articles or my introduction story, where the planned topics are listed.

Now, let’s start.

Pre-Maidan

To be able to better understand the following topics, I recommend, to read my former article about Ukraine and the “scorched earth”. It should give you a good background for understanding.

In short, we can say, that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. There are some differences in the regions, which is unavoidable in such large nations. Russia and Ukraine are gifted with large amounts of resources and fertile grounds. Far more, then its population needs. Therefore, those nations are exporting huge amounts of their resources all over the world.

Since we are talking about resources that are very accessible, in other words, cheap to harvest, they can be exported cheaply. On the other hand, we have Western industrial nations, that are dependent on cheap labour and resources from developing countries, to sustain their economic model. Since the fall of the Soviet Union the Western states build up their dominance over the world economy via military and economic means. I’ll go deeper into this topic in another article.

As long as those resources are in hands of a government, that is not controlled by the West, all the profits of selling these, are going directly into the hands of “uncooperating” countries. In the case of Russia, in the hands of the arch enemy and moreover, into the build-up of its massive military.

That’s why the West set its objectives, and don’t hide those too much, to bring Ukraine (apart of the military objectives) into Western control. Ukraine’s resources and its cheap labour should be under the control of Western countries. Then they will have access to even cheaper labour and resources, since there won’t be any profits left for the host country and its people. Which would, and eventually did, led, to the situation, that Ukraine is the poorest, but most armed country in Europe.

Russia wanted to stop this process, by integrating Ukraine into its own led Eurasian Economic Union block. The last president of Ukraine, before the coup, Victor Janukowitsch, was ready to enter the Eurasian Economic Union and to renounce all aspirations to join the European Union. This was 2013. And the decision triggered instantly the events on the Maidan.

Maidan

To stop and reverse the Ukrainian decision, to join the Eurasian Economic Union, and moreover, to fulfill all the objectives stated above, the US started to execute a prepared color revolution operation in Kiev. There were some legitimate protests in Kiev on the Maidan Square, against the decision of the government. Such protests are normal since a government is not voted by 100% of the people but “only” by the majority. Some people in every democracy have other visions for the future of their country, and they are able and allowed to protest. Even though there are much evidence and even audio files, I don’t want to go deeper into the question about, WHO organized the following events.

Professional protestors and abroad trained provocateurs started to hijack the protests against Janukowitsch. They provoked violence against police units. Which led to deaths on both sides. The final spark was delivered by snipers, that shoot on both parties, the police, and the protestors, to explode the violence.

It was successful. Eventually the protestors, and especially the professional ones started to storm government buildings and eventually sized one after another, until Kiev fell.

Ukraine was since then in the hands and in the administration of the United States of America, directly led and controlled by the ambassador.

All economic, military, and cultural objectives, stated above, and in my other articles, started to be fulfilled, which they eventually did.

Crimea

After it got known, that in Kiev some minority parties, especially right wing from the “Right block” seize power, the Crimeans, feared for their life and land.

Crimea was since the 18th century Russian. Unfortunately, a Ukrainian Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev, did his birthplace a favor and transferred, administratively Crimea into the Ukrainian Soviet Republic. This was in the fifties, of the last century. It didn’t matter back then, since there were no borders, and it was one country. Several decades later it started to cause problems.

Crimeans asked the Russian Federation for support, which was granted. The Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is stationed in Crimea, Sevastopol, intervened and sized, without a shot, all Ukrainian garrisons in Crimea. Afterwards the Crimean parliament was guarded by Russian soldiers, so they could vote for independence.

After the declaration of independence Russia decided to integrate Crimea and Sevastopol as two additional federal subjects into the Russian Federation.

Donbass

The same procedure was planned in Donbass. But it didn’t succeed. Russian militias started to seize administrative buildings successfully. One of the leaders, still famous, was Igor Strelkov (Girkin). After having seized much of Donbass, the new Ukrainian Government decided this time to intervene militarily. Which led to the war in Donbass.

I don’t intend to describe the war here. Nevertheless, I need to highlight some facts, that led to Minsk 2. After violent fighting and many deaths trough 2014, and after the Ukrainian army started to collapse in early 2015, the opposing parties started to negotiate and end and settlement to the conflict. Putin, Merkel (Germany), Hollande (France) and Poroshenko (Ukraine) agreed and signed the Misk-2 agreement. This should grant the Donbass autonomy, which should be implemented in the Ukrainian constitution.

Later, in 2022, Poroshenko admitted publicly, that he signed the agreement only, to have time to build up, together with NATO an army, that is capable, to return the Donbass by force.

Nevertheless, the war was over after this agreement. Though, the shooting never ceased totally.

Intermediate time

Regularly the Ukrainian forces targeted cities in Donbass, held by the militia, and killed thereby scores of civilians. Especially through shelling. But not only shelling, but also terrorist attacks on the leaders of the militia. This led eventually to thousands of dead civilians until February 2022.

Besides the shelling of Militia held territory, the West trained the whole times numerous battalions of the Ukrainian army within the territory of Ukraine and in the NATO countries as well.

Biden election

During the time in which Donald Trump was the president of the United States, there were no major escalations. Which doesn’t mean that, there was no shelling or dead civilians. There were!

Nevertheless, all changed when Joe Biden became the President of the United States of America.

First Ukrainian build-up

Directly after the election and inauguration of Joe Biden, Ukraine started with preparations for a major offensive against the Donbass, and perhaps against Crimea as well.

To achieve this, footage after footage of endless echelons of Ukrainian equipment, by train, spread over the internet. It can be assumed that due to the new government in the United States, Ukraine finally got the green light for its renewed offensive in Donbass.

Depending on the sources, Ukraine mobilized and transferred between 100,000 and 200,000 troops including equipment in Donbass in early 2021.

First Russian build-up

Since Russia couldn’t allow Ukraine to invade the Militia held territory of Donbass and thereby risk, that numerous people would be killed, tortured, and jailed, Russia decided to do “something” against it. The same picture, seen the weeks before, by the Ukrainian side, now happened on the Russian side. Endless echelons of military equipment were shipped to the Ukrainian border to deter Ukraine to attack the Donbass.

The West was instantly alarmed and started to call for negotiations.

Geneva

This led to the first negotiation round between Putin and Biden, face to face, in Geneva. Publicly the parties showed some good will. The START treaty was renewed/prolonged. Which is very good. Behind closed doors, it seems, I can only do assumptions of course, the parties exchanged information about what consequences the opposite party would need to expect, if an intervention would materialize. Further on I assume, that both parties stopped further escalations, to prepare its actions for the inevitable escalation of the war in Ukraine.

This led to the another few, relatively calm months in 2021, in Donbass. Though, the Russian equipment, that was shipped to the border, stayed in place, officially to be used in the strategic Zapad exercises.

I personally assume, that from this point onwards, it was clear to both parties, that the war will start and maybe even WHEN the war will start. I will elaborate this later and especially in future articles in detail.

Second Ukrainian build-up

After several months of relative calmness, the shelling and transportation of Ukrainian troops and equipment to the frontline resumed in full force in October 2021. The shelling, though, reached a new quality. It increased several folds and the civilian casualties on the Donbass side increased again.

This led to several new rounds of warnings from the Russian side.

Second Russian build-up

The warnings were ignored by Ukraine and the West. Moreover, they were denied. No one on the Western side knew anything about a Ukrainian build-up.

We need to remember, that a huge part of Russian military equipment was already in place from the first build-up. Nevertheless, another quality of military equipment shipments started from this point on. From all Russian military districts, all over Russia, equipment was shipped to the Ukrainian border. Not only frontline equipment like tanks and IFV’s, but all kind of staff equipment for large formations like brigades, divisions and even armies. Most remarkably, field hospitals were built close to the Ukrainian borders, including the establishment of a fresh blood conserve supply.

Considering the amount of military equipment on all levels of military formations, I personally had a very hard time, to consider this as a bluff. To ship it all to the Ukrainian border just to bring it back again, after the bluff fulfilled its intention was too farfetched. Nevertheless, I need to admit, that I wasn’t sure at all.

This huge built-up received all the attention of the West, that it intended to trigger. A huge round of visits of Western leaders started to arrive in Moscow, almost weekly, to first threaten Putin and afterwards, when it was clear, that the situation is very serious, to reassure each other, what the boundaries of the future conflict will be. What will be the rules, to avoid major disasters, like world economic breakdowns, famines, world wars or nuclear exchanges. As we know today, these intentions weren’t fulfilled all. At least not the economic part.

Many will argue that the official versions of those visits were to threaten Putin etc. That’s only the PR reason for the own public. The real reasons are those, that I just wrote. Since the meeting in Geneva everything was for everyone pretty clear.

Before a major war takes places, it is usual to define boundaries of it to avoid an escalation that would put the mankind in danger. Political goals (remember Clausewitz) are being exchanged and boundaries for their achievement. 

That’s why we saw many meetings between Scholz, Macron, Putin, and Biden in the prelude to the war.

Draft treaty for European security

This is a topic to which I will dedicate a whole article on its own. That’s why I will explain it very short. For more detailed information, you will need to wait for the corresponding article.

On December 7, in 2021, Biden and Putin had a video conference to discuss the Russian and Ukrainian military build-up. Officially. In fact, it was the kick-off for discussing the boundaries and red lines of the war, that would follow inevitable.

It was in fact agreed, that the parties will negotiate over a draft treaty for the European security architecture. Those negotiations should be hold on ministerial level.

In fact, Russia set its political objectives within this draft treaty and intends to achieve it with the war in Ukraine. Since the main demand of this draft treaty is, that NATO withdraws its military infrastructure to the NATO borders of 1996, many would ask, how this can be achieved with the war in Ukraine. This question will be answered in the coming article about the draft treaty.

The negotiations were hold between the US and Russia, NATO, and Russia and OSCE and Russia in the following weeks.

They were unsuccessful. The US and NATO refused to accept the terms of the treaty.

War

After NATO’s refusal of the draft treaty, everything was clear to everyone. There will be war. I personally believe that this fact, and a vague date was communicated to the Americans during the negotiations before. That’s why the West started with large scale evacuations of their unessential staff from Ukraine and deliveries of weapons as well.

At the same time did Putin visit both, Modi (India, December 2021) and Xi (China, February 2022), to coordinate, what is coming. We see today that there were agreements to support each other, that were agreed upon in advance.

What followed is known to most people, since the vast majority of people started to be interested in the conflict since this point onwards.

The Ukrainian army started massive shelling, incomparable with those, done until then, of the Militia held cities. There were many casualties. Russia started to evacuate all civilians, that wished to do so, to Russia. The Militia started with general mobilization.

As a consequence, Russia recognized both Donbass republics as independent. On February 24, Russia decided to intervene in Ukraine. War.