Succinct and a great read! The only way for ZNNP radiation to escape: disrupt the cooling below the reactors and breech the containment building down to the pressure vessel. Fat chance. Maybe the above ground storage containment, but they should be similarly protected.
Final thought: why would Russia contaminate their own land? Unless they really liked the blue haired women with blonde eyes from Chernobyl 😃
The storage casks for the spent fuel is an interesting topic for discussion. Apparently, ZNPP uses dry cask storage, and the fuel is sealed (welded) in steel cylinders, which are then stored in concrete casks. The casks are supposedly impervious to most intrusive forces, and they appear to have survived the shelling that has occured over the last year. One item to ponder: The plant was Soviet designed and built, and the spent fuel was taken offsite to Russia for processing. Only after the 1990s did the plant begin to procure fuel from non-Russian sources (U.S., I think). Since Russia took the plant last year, I have always thought that they would be wise to remove the spent fuel (to Russian territory) to eliminate "terroristic" threats. Although no information about the spent fuel has been released (AFAIK), I believe that Russia has been quietly removing the spent fuel to reduce threat to the plant. And IAEA has probably inspected that part of the plant, without comment. I know that would be a big task, since each "load" for travel would be only ~2 tons, but Russia has had a year to manage the process. Just sayin'.
Hello Piquet! Thank you for your thoughtful response. The contents of the storage casks would be removed only under IAEA supervision and after their insistence. Russia would be unwise to remove at their volition, as it would be seen as Russia building a dirty bomb (I know, they've tonnes of radioactive material of their own; similar isotopes as Ukrainian sites to boot).
There doesn't seem to be a good solution to 404's threats, especially when we know the western media will go full retard to paint Russia as creating a nuclear emergency. The Russians have had a year to zero in on the land surrounding the plant; 5-ish weeks to zero in on the landmass formerly known as a reservoir. AD units and live-feed cameras to IAEA or UN (Indian?) agency may help prove whodunit. A preemptive stroll from the north may divert activities away from ZNNP, or trigger an attack. Either way, the dumbf*cks in the west are hell bent in escalating.
Jul 6, 2023·edited Jul 6, 2023Liked by Piquet, Aleks
Nice and succinct read. But Ukrainian reactors bar Chernobyl are all of similar design and have been operated similarly all the way since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Hence it should be no problem for Ukraine to find spent nuclear fuel, or even unspent nuclear fuel, that mimics the one present at the ZNPP. All that Ukraine has to achieve is to create a nuclear false flag that is believable enough for western audiences for as long enough as necessary to achieve some desired ends, which is presumably to bring in NATO directly into the conflict. It has been said that western audiences have been brainwashed to such a degree that NATO does not need any false flag anymore to get involved. That may be true in general but there is one particular audience that may still require some "false flagging", and that's the Germans. In Germany there is still a lot of opposition to the war, both open and under the surface. There is even some opposition within the ranks of the military, as shown by certain utterances made by current and former high-ranking military officers. Germans remember WWII and how it was horribly lost against the Soviet Union; in particular in the eastern parts there is also a lot of living memory of the Russians, going back to the times of Soviet occupation and the Warsaw Pact; a great many Germans in both east and west have been involved in economic dealings with the Russians, which have now been sorely lost more or less entirely; energy prices have soared across Germany due to boycotts aka "sanctions" and the Nordstream destruction; last but not least, there is still a lingering residue of the peace movement from the eighties. Simultaneously, Germany would be a crucial logistics hub and operating base in any war against Russia. NATO may also want to offload much of the fighting onto German forces, partly because nobody likes the Germans, and partly to drive a further wedge in between Germany and Russia. A nuclear false flag might solve all this by playing on German nuclear angst. Germany has shut down all its remaining nuclear reactors just recently, firmly becoming dependent on importing electrical energy. That's even despite an ongoing renaissance of nuclear energy very much the world over, and all of the problems created by the energy boycott and the destruction of Nordstream. It goes to show how deeply nuclear angst is rooted in Germany.
whether or not ukraine could successfully frame russia for it, a radiation attack on the znpp would have seriously negative impacts on the worldwide demand for Ukrainian grain, and consequently on the stock market.
investors' and consumers' perceptions of irradiated kibble would quickly obviate any grain deal quibbles. -a.v.
Even though it is all theoretical, because I don't believe that anyone will blow that thing up.
As soon as people realize that this would be the equivalent to blowing up a Russian NPP in e.g. Moscow, the people would grasp that this will never ever happen or "polluted grain" will be the least problem that human kind will have.
My pure SWAG: Ukraine no longer needs to blow up the ZNPP in order to get NATO troops, blowing up the ZNPP would make direct NATO intervention more problematic. A "coalition of the willing" will probably not be so willing to attack through a radioactive cloud.
As evidence for my SWAG, one of the presidents of one of the Baltic vassals remarked yesterday that Zelenskii will be very pleased with what the NATO summit will offer him.
Well, I was always advocating that Russia and the West will strike a deal to split up Western Ukraine. At least some parts of Western Ukraine. When you go back all of my articles, that was my prediction. I would not panic or hyperventilate if I would see Western troops in Lvov.
The question is what will come out of the Vilnius meeting and whether the West will enter Ukraine and how far would they go. Also with or without agreement with Russia..
That is happening since the beginning. Nothing that shocks me.
These are warnings and reminders that Lvov is not a safe place for Western troops.
There is a difference between some Western "black" (illegal) troops and an official invasion/occupation of Lvov.
We should pay attention which results the summit in Vilnius will bring.
Moreover, we should pay at the same time attention with regards to the Suwalki Gap... Just in case Poland does something extremely stupid. :) Russia is accumulating troops nearby.
But these are worst case scenarios. For now I'm relaxed and don't believe that any contingencies will need to be activated.
IF they go. Maybe. For now no-one goes nowhere officially.
And the "volunteer" troops are welcome to their slaughter.
It is very difficult to say whether big mistakes have been made or not. Mistakes definitely have been made. But strategic ones? If we would know exactly what political goals have been set for the SMO than we could compare the results. I provided a lot of assumptions about potential goals. But neither I nor no other open source analyst can know that. They way Russia conducts this war at least defeats the united west on the geopolitical chessboard as we speak.
Well, this entire war is an experiment without a control group.
That said, getting "volunteers" is easy enough. And if the volunteers don't get the desired result, then the warmongers will wail that they really really cannot be seen to back down now! The Blinkens, Pistoriuses and Kaczynscy will affect touching sorrow at the deaths of so many, leaving us no choice but to escalate further.
While this abuse of the sunk cost fallacy is entirely intentional, it doesn't matter at this point.
Contrast the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. The West dared not do anything but offer the equivalent of "thoughts and prayers", because they genuinely feared the Soviet Union.
I would say that the West is far more supine than it was in 1968. To give a few examples, in 1968, there were large and active communist parties winning elections, not to mention an antiwar movement in both Europe and the US.
A few years later, the West German parliament would even try to limit US military deployments. Can you imagine a German parliament doing that today? Germany now accompanies the US in its imperial adventures.
For that mattef, they can't even investigate the NS bombing, an act of war against their own country, for fear that they won't like what any investigation might reveal.
To Piquet’s point below about nuclear waste containers- in the US I toured a plant that made these. They rolled 8” thick steel plates into a cylinder-roughly 45’ long and about 12’ in diameter, then video documented every inch of welding along the seam. Then crushable aluminum honeycomb (by Hexcel) pieces were placed on each end of the cylinder. This completed assembly was designed to withstand a train wreck of 60 mph.
It is an attack on a Russian NPP on Russian soil. According to Russian constitution.
Even though some Ukrainians, the Brits and the American parallel structures would want it.... I think the people in power try to block that.
I had information that most Western leaders called Zelensky two days ago before midnight to make sure he do not execute "his" plans.
I'd assume that IF the West or Ukraine wants to destroy any particular (surface) element of the NPP then there is nothing Russia can do to avoid that. It is a game of numbers. How many artillery shells and cheap missiles I need to fire to saturate Russia AD to launch then larger missiles that would do the damage.
It is the same way how to penetrate any AD zone.
The only deterrence is the communication of what the consequences would be. Consequences IN THE WEST. And I think that's what happened.
"It is an attack on a Russian NPP on Russian soil. According to Russian constitution."
Nobody in the West cares about their own constitutions, much less that of Russia.
The only question that matters to a sociopath is "What can you do about it?" Can you buy the attacker off or can you deliver a very credible threat that you will back up?
Russian dithering has caused the sociopaths governing the West to lose all fear of Russian threats.
It is a good counter argument for certain. Thanks. Nord Stream wasn't on Russian land. The dam was correct? There was some info the USA is indeed talking to the Russians. Scott Horton was talking about that today. I don't know. The USA has flagrantly violated Russian red lines. I disagree with the poster below. When they can't escalate anymore without their own lives being in jeopardy they will reevaluate. It is possible. I hope you are right. Russia will have to negotiate BRICS though... which they can't... or we will wind up in the same place. The USA has to offer up something big. They have shown they are non agreement capable. What does the US have to offer but Ukraine? How do they walk that down? More important... how does Russia believe them?
Fearmongering directed at Ukrainian populace in regards of Russia blowing up the ZNPP is off the charts. Up to warning signs on the doors of some stores. I have very reliable information that the plant is working as planned, noone is leaving and it is very thoroughly protected. Which makes me think this whole narrative is designed to distract Ukrainians and the world at large from the disaster of a counteroffensive, blackmail and incentivize western countries to help/intervene and, possibly, make even more people leave the region. Many are leaving, indeed.
What worries me about the possibility of shelling with nuclear waste missiles is that no "international" organization is going to really investigate. They all seem to be compromised.
Glad to hear that talk about Russians evacuating is BS! I agree that the talk is to distract from the miserable performance on the counteroffensive. As for "international" organizations, I think that Russia is the only adult in the room.
Excellent analysis, especially the soils mechanics. If there is a release of radioactive material whether from a dirty bomb or DU Ammo, the breadbasket will cease to be viable. What a senseless waste of an invaluable resource. The leadership of Ukraine and NATO consists of malignant idiots.
The "dried up" reservoir still has a flowing river inside. A quite big one. Dnepr is the third largest river of Europe. At Energodar, it is in width and discharge comparable to Arkansas river in Little Rock - anyone drive through over there? Let's assume the bed of the reservoir has (will be) dried up. So, there still remains the naturally formed river bed with oxbows and branches. The river bank being not fortified and enhanced - as is the case with many other rivers. This by itself makes a passing very difficult. Additionally, one has to pass completely open territory with no cover whatsoever - so target practice. IMHO it is much more difficult to pass now, then it was with the lake. At least for another year or two, until the open space is grown over with willows.
Hey Piquet, thank you for the analysis. As you say, Option 1 is really the only credible option despite its obvious flaws. But we shouldn't forget that this is a propaganda exercise to influence the West, logic is entirely optional. If it happened, it wouldn't matter how hard Russia tried to explain the logical absurdities inherent in Option 1. The Western media, in total unison, would simply run hard and fast with the Ukrainian version backed up by a few ginned up radiation readings from their sniffer plane currently parked in Italy.
"What is Ukraine up to in this whole episode? Other than fear-mongering to try to get the Russians to abandon ZNPP out of fear of a dirty bomb strike, I don’t see any logical reason for their machinations."
The explanation is simple - garner continuing support from the international community and possibly an activation of Article 5 of NATO in support of Ukraine.
As to the mining of one or more of the reactor buildings, whilst the analysis included part of the statement of the IAEA inspectors regarding the fact that they have witnessed no such mining activity by the Russians, the analysis, like most other analyses fo this statement, fails to address the one point that Western media is constantly harping on with regards to this statement - the inspectors have observed "only to the extent that they have access". So apparently they do not have full access to the facility? Or are they lying about that in order to appease the Ukrainian and Western supporters? What is the truth here?
[1] You failed to mention the spent fuel casks, of which there are hundreds, containing spent fuel.
Breaching these can spread radioactive waste, although the Russians have erected a steel mesh canopy to protect them somewhat.
[2] Other weaknesses would be the spent fuel ponds (more radioactive, and need water to cool. These are seen as the Achilles heel of most PWR nuclear installations; although pumps and water cool and feeds have been mentioned as targets, a ‘better’ target for spreading radioactivity would be steam egress pipes.
[3] Any dirty fuel ordinance would have a different radioactive signature, easily raising problems for any forensic examination. Question remains how confident the UA is, on the basis of past experience, that anything they say will be accepted as authoritative truth and covered up by all Western MSM sources and political/bureaucratic channels as well as the UN and IAEA.
I think that you have misinterpreted the purpose of the article. That purpose is to (briefly) lay out the strategies involved in Ukraine's attempts to make Russia out as an evil aggressor, by somehow causing a massive radiation leak that can be blamed on Russia. As I pointed out in the article, Ukraine's attempts would not achieve a desired effect.
Regarding your item [3], please read the article all the way to the end; I did cover that point.
Excellent article. Thanks.
I should learn from it to also start writing from time to time short updates instead of books :))))
Succinct and a great read! The only way for ZNNP radiation to escape: disrupt the cooling below the reactors and breech the containment building down to the pressure vessel. Fat chance. Maybe the above ground storage containment, but they should be similarly protected.
Final thought: why would Russia contaminate their own land? Unless they really liked the blue haired women with blonde eyes from Chernobyl 😃
Cheers from Tokyo!
Thank you Kotanraju Via Znanje,
The storage casks for the spent fuel is an interesting topic for discussion. Apparently, ZNPP uses dry cask storage, and the fuel is sealed (welded) in steel cylinders, which are then stored in concrete casks. The casks are supposedly impervious to most intrusive forces, and they appear to have survived the shelling that has occured over the last year. One item to ponder: The plant was Soviet designed and built, and the spent fuel was taken offsite to Russia for processing. Only after the 1990s did the plant begin to procure fuel from non-Russian sources (U.S., I think). Since Russia took the plant last year, I have always thought that they would be wise to remove the spent fuel (to Russian territory) to eliminate "terroristic" threats. Although no information about the spent fuel has been released (AFAIK), I believe that Russia has been quietly removing the spent fuel to reduce threat to the plant. And IAEA has probably inspected that part of the plant, without comment. I know that would be a big task, since each "load" for travel would be only ~2 tons, but Russia has had a year to manage the process. Just sayin'.
Hello Piquet! Thank you for your thoughtful response. The contents of the storage casks would be removed only under IAEA supervision and after their insistence. Russia would be unwise to remove at their volition, as it would be seen as Russia building a dirty bomb (I know, they've tonnes of radioactive material of their own; similar isotopes as Ukrainian sites to boot).
There doesn't seem to be a good solution to 404's threats, especially when we know the western media will go full retard to paint Russia as creating a nuclear emergency. The Russians have had a year to zero in on the land surrounding the plant; 5-ish weeks to zero in on the landmass formerly known as a reservoir. AD units and live-feed cameras to IAEA or UN (Indian?) agency may help prove whodunit. A preemptive stroll from the north may divert activities away from ZNNP, or trigger an attack. Either way, the dumbf*cks in the west are hell bent in escalating.
Well said.
Simplicius is a detailed writer. The videos, drawings and photos in his articles are very helpful in understanding.
By the way, I was going to buy you a coffee but became a paid subscriber instead.
Kind regards.
Nice and succinct read. But Ukrainian reactors bar Chernobyl are all of similar design and have been operated similarly all the way since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Hence it should be no problem for Ukraine to find spent nuclear fuel, or even unspent nuclear fuel, that mimics the one present at the ZNPP. All that Ukraine has to achieve is to create a nuclear false flag that is believable enough for western audiences for as long enough as necessary to achieve some desired ends, which is presumably to bring in NATO directly into the conflict. It has been said that western audiences have been brainwashed to such a degree that NATO does not need any false flag anymore to get involved. That may be true in general but there is one particular audience that may still require some "false flagging", and that's the Germans. In Germany there is still a lot of opposition to the war, both open and under the surface. There is even some opposition within the ranks of the military, as shown by certain utterances made by current and former high-ranking military officers. Germans remember WWII and how it was horribly lost against the Soviet Union; in particular in the eastern parts there is also a lot of living memory of the Russians, going back to the times of Soviet occupation and the Warsaw Pact; a great many Germans in both east and west have been involved in economic dealings with the Russians, which have now been sorely lost more or less entirely; energy prices have soared across Germany due to boycotts aka "sanctions" and the Nordstream destruction; last but not least, there is still a lingering residue of the peace movement from the eighties. Simultaneously, Germany would be a crucial logistics hub and operating base in any war against Russia. NATO may also want to offload much of the fighting onto German forces, partly because nobody likes the Germans, and partly to drive a further wedge in between Germany and Russia. A nuclear false flag might solve all this by playing on German nuclear angst. Germany has shut down all its remaining nuclear reactors just recently, firmly becoming dependent on importing electrical energy. That's even despite an ongoing renaissance of nuclear energy very much the world over, and all of the problems created by the energy boycott and the destruction of Nordstream. It goes to show how deeply nuclear angst is rooted in Germany.
whether or not ukraine could successfully frame russia for it, a radiation attack on the znpp would have seriously negative impacts on the worldwide demand for Ukrainian grain, and consequently on the stock market.
investors' and consumers' perceptions of irradiated kibble would quickly obviate any grain deal quibbles. -a.v.
Good point btw.
Even though it is all theoretical, because I don't believe that anyone will blow that thing up.
As soon as people realize that this would be the equivalent to blowing up a Russian NPP in e.g. Moscow, the people would grasp that this will never ever happen or "polluted grain" will be the least problem that human kind will have.
This entire noise about nuclear threat is for blackmailing western allies. Zelya wants some money/stuff from western sponsors.
This is possible.
But he can't do that on his own.
I'm sure some "rouge" Western (US?) services are handling him to blackmail the own (US) government.
My pure SWAG: Ukraine no longer needs to blow up the ZNPP in order to get NATO troops, blowing up the ZNPP would make direct NATO intervention more problematic. A "coalition of the willing" will probably not be so willing to attack through a radioactive cloud.
As evidence for my SWAG, one of the presidents of one of the Baltic vassals remarked yesterday that Zelenskii will be very pleased with what the NATO summit will offer him.
I heard that as well...
Well, I was always advocating that Russia and the West will strike a deal to split up Western Ukraine. At least some parts of Western Ukraine. When you go back all of my articles, that was my prediction. I would not panic or hyperventilate if I would see Western troops in Lvov.
The question is what will come out of the Vilnius meeting and whether the West will enter Ukraine and how far would they go. Also with or without agreement with Russia..
Questions over questions.... We will see.
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/prospects-for-world-war-3-dedicated
I see reports today that Russia struck Lvov (and Western troops). Maybe they are signalling that there will be no agreement with the West?
That is happening since the beginning. Nothing that shocks me.
These are warnings and reminders that Lvov is not a safe place for Western troops.
There is a difference between some Western "black" (illegal) troops and an official invasion/occupation of Lvov.
We should pay attention which results the summit in Vilnius will bring.
Moreover, we should pay at the same time attention with regards to the Suwalki Gap... Just in case Poland does something extremely stupid. :) Russia is accumulating troops nearby.
But these are worst case scenarios. For now I'm relaxed and don't believe that any contingencies will need to be activated.
Western troops will go as far as they are able..
Russia made a series of mistakes in allowing things to come to this.
IF they go. Maybe. For now no-one goes nowhere officially.
And the "volunteer" troops are welcome to their slaughter.
It is very difficult to say whether big mistakes have been made or not. Mistakes definitely have been made. But strategic ones? If we would know exactly what political goals have been set for the SMO than we could compare the results. I provided a lot of assumptions about potential goals. But neither I nor no other open source analyst can know that. They way Russia conducts this war at least defeats the united west on the geopolitical chessboard as we speak.
There are pros and cons... Who knows.
Well, this entire war is an experiment without a control group.
That said, getting "volunteers" is easy enough. And if the volunteers don't get the desired result, then the warmongers will wail that they really really cannot be seen to back down now! The Blinkens, Pistoriuses and Kaczynscy will affect touching sorrow at the deaths of so many, leaving us no choice but to escalate further.
While this abuse of the sunk cost fallacy is entirely intentional, it doesn't matter at this point.
Contrast the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. The West dared not do anything but offer the equivalent of "thoughts and prayers", because they genuinely feared the Soviet Union.
The difference is... 1968 The West still was led by a "country". The United States.
Today the United States is no longer a country but a patient with "Dissociative identity disorder" where each identity is following a separate goal.
Some of these identities (shareholders) do respect Russia and "life" itself. And other do not. The question is which stakeholder will prevail.
As you know, my prediction is:
85% = Respect will prevail
15% = We all are going to die :D
Of course I could be completely wrong here.
I would say that the West is far more supine than it was in 1968. To give a few examples, in 1968, there were large and active communist parties winning elections, not to mention an antiwar movement in both Europe and the US.
A few years later, the West German parliament would even try to limit US military deployments. Can you imagine a German parliament doing that today? Germany now accompanies the US in its imperial adventures.
For that mattef, they can't even investigate the NS bombing, an act of war against their own country, for fear that they won't like what any investigation might reveal.
I could go on and on.
To Piquet’s point below about nuclear waste containers- in the US I toured a plant that made these. They rolled 8” thick steel plates into a cylinder-roughly 45’ long and about 12’ in diameter, then video documented every inch of welding along the seam. Then crushable aluminum honeycomb (by Hexcel) pieces were placed on each end of the cylinder. This completed assembly was designed to withstand a train wreck of 60 mph.
They threatened to blow up the dam..
They threatened to blow up nord stream 2, they are threatening to blow up ZNPP... pretty safe bet they are going to do it
Good point.
It might not happen for months but they'll do something. Set off a dirty bomb if they can't blow up the spent fuel containmemt.
I tend to follow the same logic.
But this is slightly different.
It is an attack on a Russian NPP on Russian soil. According to Russian constitution.
Even though some Ukrainians, the Brits and the American parallel structures would want it.... I think the people in power try to block that.
I had information that most Western leaders called Zelensky two days ago before midnight to make sure he do not execute "his" plans.
I'd assume that IF the West or Ukraine wants to destroy any particular (surface) element of the NPP then there is nothing Russia can do to avoid that. It is a game of numbers. How many artillery shells and cheap missiles I need to fire to saturate Russia AD to launch then larger missiles that would do the damage.
It is the same way how to penetrate any AD zone.
The only deterrence is the communication of what the consequences would be. Consequences IN THE WEST. And I think that's what happened.
"It is an attack on a Russian NPP on Russian soil. According to Russian constitution."
Nobody in the West cares about their own constitutions, much less that of Russia.
The only question that matters to a sociopath is "What can you do about it?" Can you buy the attacker off or can you deliver a very credible threat that you will back up?
Russian dithering has caused the sociopaths governing the West to lose all fear of Russian threats.
It is a good counter argument for certain. Thanks. Nord Stream wasn't on Russian land. The dam was correct? There was some info the USA is indeed talking to the Russians. Scott Horton was talking about that today. I don't know. The USA has flagrantly violated Russian red lines. I disagree with the poster below. When they can't escalate anymore without their own lives being in jeopardy they will reevaluate. It is possible. I hope you are right. Russia will have to negotiate BRICS though... which they can't... or we will wind up in the same place. The USA has to offer up something big. They have shown they are non agreement capable. What does the US have to offer but Ukraine? How do they walk that down? More important... how does Russia believe them?
Fearmongering directed at Ukrainian populace in regards of Russia blowing up the ZNPP is off the charts. Up to warning signs on the doors of some stores. I have very reliable information that the plant is working as planned, noone is leaving and it is very thoroughly protected. Which makes me think this whole narrative is designed to distract Ukrainians and the world at large from the disaster of a counteroffensive, blackmail and incentivize western countries to help/intervene and, possibly, make even more people leave the region. Many are leaving, indeed.
What worries me about the possibility of shelling with nuclear waste missiles is that no "international" organization is going to really investigate. They all seem to be compromised.
Glad to hear that talk about Russians evacuating is BS! I agree that the talk is to distract from the miserable performance on the counteroffensive. As for "international" organizations, I think that Russia is the only adult in the room.
Excellent analysis, especially the soils mechanics. If there is a release of radioactive material whether from a dirty bomb or DU Ammo, the breadbasket will cease to be viable. What a senseless waste of an invaluable resource. The leadership of Ukraine and NATO consists of malignant idiots.
The "dried up" reservoir still has a flowing river inside. A quite big one. Dnepr is the third largest river of Europe. At Energodar, it is in width and discharge comparable to Arkansas river in Little Rock - anyone drive through over there? Let's assume the bed of the reservoir has (will be) dried up. So, there still remains the naturally formed river bed with oxbows and branches. The river bank being not fortified and enhanced - as is the case with many other rivers. This by itself makes a passing very difficult. Additionally, one has to pass completely open territory with no cover whatsoever - so target practice. IMHO it is much more difficult to pass now, then it was with the lake. At least for another year or two, until the open space is grown over with willows.
Hey Piquet, thank you for the analysis. As you say, Option 1 is really the only credible option despite its obvious flaws. But we shouldn't forget that this is a propaganda exercise to influence the West, logic is entirely optional. If it happened, it wouldn't matter how hard Russia tried to explain the logical absurdities inherent in Option 1. The Western media, in total unison, would simply run hard and fast with the Ukrainian version backed up by a few ginned up radiation readings from their sniffer plane currently parked in Italy.
It’s endless drivel from the Ukrainian Ministry of BS. The only power they have is spewing endless amounts of propaganda. I’m tired of it.
"What is Ukraine up to in this whole episode? Other than fear-mongering to try to get the Russians to abandon ZNPP out of fear of a dirty bomb strike, I don’t see any logical reason for their machinations."
The explanation is simple - garner continuing support from the international community and possibly an activation of Article 5 of NATO in support of Ukraine.
As to the mining of one or more of the reactor buildings, whilst the analysis included part of the statement of the IAEA inspectors regarding the fact that they have witnessed no such mining activity by the Russians, the analysis, like most other analyses fo this statement, fails to address the one point that Western media is constantly harping on with regards to this statement - the inspectors have observed "only to the extent that they have access". So apparently they do not have full access to the facility? Or are they lying about that in order to appease the Ukrainian and Western supporters? What is the truth here?
[1] You failed to mention the spent fuel casks, of which there are hundreds, containing spent fuel.
Breaching these can spread radioactive waste, although the Russians have erected a steel mesh canopy to protect them somewhat.
[2] Other weaknesses would be the spent fuel ponds (more radioactive, and need water to cool. These are seen as the Achilles heel of most PWR nuclear installations; although pumps and water cool and feeds have been mentioned as targets, a ‘better’ target for spreading radioactivity would be steam egress pipes.
[3] Any dirty fuel ordinance would have a different radioactive signature, easily raising problems for any forensic examination. Question remains how confident the UA is, on the basis of past experience, that anything they say will be accepted as authoritative truth and covered up by all Western MSM sources and political/bureaucratic channels as well as the UN and IAEA.
I think that you have misinterpreted the purpose of the article. That purpose is to (briefly) lay out the strategies involved in Ukraine's attempts to make Russia out as an evil aggressor, by somehow causing a massive radiation leak that can be blamed on Russia. As I pointed out in the article, Ukraine's attempts would not achieve a desired effect.
Regarding your item [3], please read the article all the way to the end; I did cover that point.
Excellent article, Piquet.