To Negotiate or Not to Negotiate [i]

That is the question

Introduction

Here is a very brief update on the negotiating proposals by President Putin and the West. Unfortunately, my time doesn’t allow a full analysis, but I would like to communicate my main thoughts.

President Putin’s proposal

President Putin held a speech at a meeting of the Russian foreign ministry. Basically, he touched upon many very important topics, but I’d like to focus here on his negotiating proposals.

I suggest you read the full text here.

He proposed starting negotiations if the Ukrainian Army pulls out of the constitutional Russian territories Donets, Lugansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.

There is much more, but I’m going to focus on the most important things.

His proposal came right before the “Peace Conference” of the Western powers in Switzerland on June 14, 2024.

The West’s proposal

Of course, the West and Ukraine rejected this proposal right away. I will comment on that later.

The West came up with similar “realistic” demands on its own “Peace Conference.” They suggested funny things like that Russia is going to return the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power plant to “Ukraine” or grant access to the Sea of Azov. There is much more, but I must focus here due to lack of time.

Meaning

Both proposals are similar, realistic, and feasible. ..NOT!

And everyone knows that.

Let’s go through the reasons why I think the Russian proposal has been offered:

1. It was a public show to the world that Russia is ready to negotiate, especially to the BRICS countries. It is a show of goodwill, and the terms would be excellent if Ukraine were independent and not remote-controlled. Especially considering the current slaughter of the Ukrainian Army.

2. President Putin wanted to make his own proposal right before the Western conference to give everyone at the conference the certainty that the conference is futile since the conditions are dictated by the winners and not by drug addicts. Pardon… Western leaders. The message was especially aimed at participants who were uncertain about how to decide and act at the conference.

   After President Putin’s speech, it was clear to everyone that Russia never will attend any further Western “negotiations” and that whatever is decided can only provoke Russia even more. So, better stay as neutral as possible.

3. Now comes the most important reason:

   The main recipients of this speech were the Ukrainian people. They have started listening more carefully to President Putin than their own media. President Putin’s speech was broadly heard and listened to in Ukraine.

   It aimed to outline in detail how the Ukrainian (Russian) people were betrayed by the West and their traitorous leaders right from the beginning. Moreover, it creates hope for the Ukrainians to end the mass deaths of their relatives if their government surrenders. That is what it is about; it is an ultimatum for an unconditional surrender, packed with some nice phrases.

   The Ukrainian people need to know that the deaths of their relatives could end tomorrow if their government enters negotiations. The “government,” of course, can’t since it is controlled by the West.

   It is activating another vector of internal pressure to convince the Ukrainian people to fight their “government” and resist mobilization.

The reasons for the Western “peace conference” are similar:

1. It shows to the world that they want to negotiate, but the Russians don’t. Of course, this reason was mooted by President Putin’s speech the day before the conference.

2. Dragging away support from Russia by the global south.

3. Showing the Ukrainians that the West/Ukraine is winning and dictating terms to Russia. Which was proven false by President Putin’s speech.

Consequences

Neither proposal was intended to be accepted by anyone for the abovementioned reasons.

In fact, if any of the opponents would have agreed to the proposal of the other, the situation would be as follows: It would be like with Jehovah’s Witnesses. They go door to door and ask the people if they want to talk about good. If someone agrees, they would panic since they never would have expected that and would have no clue what to talk about. 😊 This is sarcasm, of course, but a good analogy.

President Putin would panic if Ukraine (the West) suddenly accepted his proposal. What to do? 😊 (Still sarcasm).

Ukraine is not allowed to negotiate or surrender at any time. The people of Ukraine, including the Ukrainian Army, will need to take that step when everything begins to collapse. Ukraine is not allowed to end the war since the West’s goal in Ukraine is to kill Ukrainians and Russians, as well as to destroy Russian and Ukrainian infrastructure, before the inevitable end.

So, it doesn’t matter what the situation is on the frontlines and whether Ukrainian casualties reach 2,000 per day. If the West can manage conscription in the rear and fresh bodies can be killed, the war will continue.

And that’s why President Putin’s speech was important. To point out this fact to the Ukrainian people and to accelerate the process within Ukraine to end the war by the people and by the Ukrainian Army. In other words, to trigger a collapse.

Let me be clear: I said from the beginning that Ukraine will fall. The talk about whether Odessa or any other place will be liberated by the Russian army is futile. The West will push the Ukrainian Zombie to attack Russia as long as it is physically possible. So, the war will push the Ukrainians back, step by step, until the point when the full collapse starts. And then there will be no Ukrainian army. Only some fanatics with machine guns will be hunted down across Ukraine by specialized services and killed.

That’s the only possible outcome. Not wishful thinking, determinism.

Whether Russia will incorporate all parts of Ukraine is an entirely different question, and I don’t have an answer.

Postscript

On a different topic:

I have become overwhelmed by the workload of my (new) job. Not at BMA but my main job. I am currently unable to answer comments even though I really would like to. You can be assured that I read every single comment. Thank you so much for contributing.

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[i] Edited by Piquet (PiquetEdit@gmail.com)