Ukraine and the Middle East - Part 1[i]

Fast forward to the abyss

Introduction

Welcome to another major geopolitical update. This installment is for those fans of the BIG articles! It is so long that I had to split it into two parts. This first part focuses on events in Ukraine, and the second part, to be published soon, will focus on the Middle East and the overall perspective.

Events are now coming fast and furious, and they are happening simultaneously around the world—frightening events. Panic is spreading throughout the blogging and independent media scene. I will try to bring some rationality to the topics and put things into perspective.

To better understand where I am coming from, I recommend that you read this piece.

Wars of Liberation

Basics

In previous articles, I have hinted that a new global war is developing. This global war consists of many smaller battles in which currently dependent countries are trying to break out of the colonial grip of the Western Empire. I named the totality of these wars “Wars of Liberation,” referring to the Wars of Liberation of the European Countries against Napoleon in the 19^th century.

We are witnessing a campaign set up by the BRICS countries to challenge the West in many simultaneous conflicts worldwide, particularly after the West depleted itself to a critical degree in Ukraine. The West (U.S.) risks losing its status as a world superpower, and now it has only bad options. Fight at one or many places and risk being defeated because of being stretched thin, or withdraw and lose one colony after another.

These are the Wars of Liberation.

After Niger and Gaza, we now have Yemen as a new warzone in the Wars of Liberation. We will go deeper into that later.

Russian and Chinese interest

It is in China’s and Russia’s best interest to spread the West thin. To let it deplete all its reserves worldwide and then drive them out of strategic regions with proxies (to avoid a direct clash between the superpowers). In other words, it mirrors the Western strategy against Russia since before the fall of the Soviet Union — manipulate and turn former Russian allies against Russia and bog it down in wars against former allies with the eventual goal of driving Russia out of these regions. And then to take these regions over. Remember — Markets and Resources? The eventual goal was to defeat Russia by depriving it of these and causing social problems within Russia. The current War of Liberation strategy mirrors the West’s approach and is being used against the West. And it seems that China does not oppose this strategy.

I will go further into this later.

Ukraine

Downfall of a nation

Ukraine is in the throes of a strategic defeat. The collapse began long ago, and I chronicled it several times. Now we have the following situation: The front lines must be maintained somehow. The West is assisting Ukraine in holding positions and thereby inflicting massive casualties on Ukrainians — future Russian people — with all its social and macroeconomic consequences. This is also inflicting significant casualties on Russia. In other words, the West is encouraging a Russian civil war where Russians are fighting other Russians (Ukrainians) without Western soldiers risking their lives. I have always said this is a vector of success for the West. I cannot put it any other way. The West wins with every dead Ukrainian or Russian. Even though Russia is winning overwhelmingly, the whole war is a losing vector for Russia from a social and humanitarian perspective.

Nevertheless, there are far more vectors on which Russia and BRICS are winning, economically and geopolitically. The West is currently being eviscerated economically by BRICS, and the whole world is in the process of freeing itself from colonialism because of the SMO.

But what is with Ukraine? Ukraine would have been non-existent long ago if the West had not paid for the continuation of the slaughter. The people of Ukraine would have access to world markets. They would have Russian social benefits and the rebuilding efforts of BRICS. On the other hand, there is the West. The West doesn’t care about Ukraine and its people. The West makes sure that every cent that is invested in Ukraine is used to either kill Russians or to make sure that Ukrainians die and leave Ukraine as “Scorched Earth” for Russia.

And this is where we are.

If we go back in history, we can find the following pattern. Suppose a nation is in a long-standing existential struggle, and this country is losing. In that case, the following applies: At the beginning, the government can sustain the war with a functioning economy and industry. The longer the fight goes on, and as more soldiers die, the more the resources of the rear diminish. In other words, the nation is dying in the non-combat areas to be able to provide all that is needed for the war efforts and front lines. This is the final path to the collapse of Ukraine, both militarily and politically.

Ukraine is still able to hold some lines somehow. Not all, but most. Three factors explain this:

1)     Russia is not on the offensive. Russia is simply exerting either constant or growing pressure on all fronts to stretch the scarce Ukrainian resources over a vast front line. While Ukraine is diminishing, and struggling to counter this approach, Russia’s resources are growing; therefore, the pressure is on the front line.

2)     The far more critical factor is the following: Ukraine is dismembering itself: society, people, industry, economy, social structures, police, firefighters, prosecutors, etc., only to somehow maintain the front lines.

3)     The West pays wages and social benefits for Ukraine. No funds, no war; it is as simple as that. Since the US might pause or even end its funding of Ukraine, the Europeans are trying to step up their funding of Ukraine by sacrificing their own budgets. One can conclude that the SMO is diminishing not only Ukraine but also (indirectly) the Europeans. After the partial demilitarization of NATO, budget crises followed. Crazy… If one had told me years ago that the Europeans would do this to themselves, I would not have believed it.

Again, the rear is dying to be able to sustain the front. This can proceed a little more, but eventually, everything will simply collapse. Essentially, it is the same as with Germany in 1944/1945—everything FOR the front lines and TO the front lines.

Kupyansk

There are a lot of stories about the Kupyansk front line. Mainly because the Russians are not able to advance there; they are bogged down around Sinkovka. I think what we see around Kupyansk and Sinkovka is a smaller version of the overall war in Ukraine. It is essential to choose where you want to fight your battles. See Sun Tzu’s “Art of War”.

For the whole war, the Russians chose Donbas for the fight. Why?

• Short supply lines.

• Air superiority.

• Friendly population.

The opposite holds for Ukraine. Donbas is the best possible environment for Russia and the worst possible for Ukraine.

This is one of the reasons why there is no big arrow offensive against Ukraine for the time being.

Now let’s focus on Kupyansk and/or Sinkovka (see map). If Russia chose to storm Kupyansk, it would need to fight in an urban environment, and it would need to cross a river. At least to gain about half of the city. It would also need to approach the city defensive lines across open fields or through wooded areas with all their difficulties. This would be possible, but at the cost of many casualties and destroyed vehicles. And there is currently no need for that. Russia is not fighting to capture territory; its goal is the demilitarization of AFU.

Source: https://ukraine.liveuamap.com/

With Russia approaching Sinkovka and applying constant or increasing pressure on it, the Ukrainians are doctrinally forced to hold it to keep up the defensive belt around Kupyansk, assuming that the Russians would storm Kupyansk next. Now the Ukrainians are in the following situation:

• Ukraine must cross the Oskol River at established river crossings that have not been destroyed yet, or at improvised river crossings and pontoon bridges. This is only to supply the Sinkovka front. Moreover, Sinkovka is in the middle of nowhere. The approaches are in open fields (see red lines on the map) or through the woods.

• This situation is highly unfavorable for the defender.

• The supply lines are already targeted.

• This is another meatgrinder favorable to the Russian Army.

• If Russia wants to put an end to it and approach Kupyansk, then Russia would face the same unfavorable stuff and take heavy casualties and losses in equipment.

• There is no need for Kupyansk at present. Not that it is not essential, it is. But its time has not come in the overall sequence.

• On January 12, Ukraine was forced to withdraw the 115^th Brigade from the Sinkovka front line as it was reduced to a critical level. This is precisely the purpose of approaching Sinkovka but not taking it: using it as a meatgrinder to diminish Ukrainian brigades as Artemovsk was used and as Avdeevka is currently used.

Sinkovka and Kupyansk are only an example of the overall Russian strategy to let the Ukrainians fight and die at places that the Russians have chosen. The Ukrainian strategy of constantly being on the offensive contributes to this Russian strategy since Russia is able to choose the battlefield.

Krynki                                           

This leads us to another meatgrinder for Ukrainian brigades: the Ukrainian beachhead at Krynki in the Kherson region. I described the purpose of Ukraine and Russia for this beachhead two months ago in this article.

Nevertheless, I will briefly go over this topic here since it is an important meatgrinder and, therefore, a hotspot for the depletion of the Ukrainian mobilization potential, which is sad.

From the Ukrainian political point of view, this beachhead is essential. It allows both Ukrainian and Western politicians to pretend that Ukraine still has an opportunity left to march on Crimea. This is highly important to keep the Western public morale high, as well as that of the American Congress, to further support Ukraine financially.

For the Ukrainian people and military, it is a disaster, betrayal, and high treason by its leaders. Why? Forcing several hundred soldiers to hold a beachhead across a river, while under heavy enemy fire without the ability to supply heavy equipment is murder. It is like transporting animals to their slaughter without their knowing what awaits them with one crucial difference. We are talking about people who are likely very conscious of what awaits them. These people are a combination of very brave, very dumb, nationalistic, forced, drunk, and drugged people.

Many die right on the river or while landing. Others later by artillery fire or aerial bombs. They have no chance whatsoever to achieve anything on the beachhead. This is highly criminal and it is a war crime.

Nevertheless, there is one little advantage of this organized mass suicide. It forces Russia to divert considerable resources away from other front lines. In the beginning, this might have hurt Russia slightly. However, now the Russian resources are so overwhelming on all fronts that it doesn’t matter anymore.

From a Russian military operational and strategic perspective, it is, of course, a gift since it resembles a turkey shoot. Moreover, it is a very efficient way to draw Ukraine’s human potential down. In other words, It is another meatgrinder designed to overstretch Ukrainian resources and contribute to a quicker collapse.

From an overall humanitarian perspective, and I am sure the Russians and the Russian soldiers think the same way, it is a tragedy. It would be one thing to kill actual enemies that way. But it is an entirely different thing to kill en masse fraternal people who have been turned against them by brainwashing and force. It is especially sad because many forcefully mobilized people are from Russian-speaking territories and, therefore, perhaps pro-Russian or even Russian.

Avdeevka

The battle for Avdeevka has many facets.

I think it should be mentioned that Avdeevka is the biggest meatgrinder of Ukrainian forces of all active meatgrinders. Hence, Ukraine is a large force to try to hold it. Several hundred soldiers die here each day. They are dying in large numbers because most supply routes are under Russian fire control and the units within the city are under 24/7 surveillance by drones and other means. Units that are moving on the ground are identified quickly, targets are acquired and destroyed by the best available means. That’s why the Ukrainians have a highly developed underground tunnel network where even tanks can drive. They had years to prepare.

Avdeevka and several surrounding villages are the source of the shelling of civilians in Donetsk city. Therefore, the elimination of this threat to civilians has an urgency for the Russians.

Currently, Russia is working to find the right balance between tightening the grip around Avdeevka and not approaching too much to save its own resources, lives, and equipment. Ukraine is currently mobilizing most of its resources to hold Avdeevka, as they did in Artemovsk. The perception is that if Avdeevka falls, the whole Donbas front will collapse.

If Russia closes the cauldron tighter, it will be better able to inflict even more damage on the supply lines and the forces inside would come under higher pressure. At the same time, Russia risks sustaining higher casualties by creating exposed flanks without appropriate support. Ukraine is concentrating its artillery and drone resources on Avdeevka, and these resources are known offensive breakers. You don’t go into a general offensive as long as your enemy still has considerable artillery in place if you want to minimize casualties. Well… you do that if you are a Ukrainian politician who is tasked to kill his own population. But a sane person doesn’t do that.

In other words, Avdeevka is not yet a stable meatgrinder for the Russians as, for instance, Krynki or Sinkovka are. Russia is still facing difficulties and casualties here. It was the perfect spot for formations like Wagner that had, separate from their Tier 1 (Professional Operatives and Leadership) and Tier 2 (Special Forces), the Tier 3 formation. The (prisoner) expendables. These are currently not as widely in use as in Artemovsk, which is problematic for Russia because you can’t simply send the regular army into death traps in an environment of a Special Military Operation. This is officially no war, and casualties like those the Ukrainians sustain are not compatible with a SMO. Neither from a political, nor military perspective, and certainly not from the public opinion side.

I assume that Russia, to save resources, will take its time in Avdeevka to slowly but steadily tighten the cauldron without closing it, which would deprive Russia of the most productive meatgrinder.

Nevertheless, I’m afraid that the casualties there are sustainable for the Ukrainians, at least from the human potential side. Mechanized equipment is obviously scarce for the Ukrainians. For this reason, I expect that we might experience within the next two months the opening of an entirely new front line by the Russians to stretch the Ukrainian logistics and resources even more. This would make Avdeevka weaker, the damage inflicted on the Ukrainians would increase, and the sustained casualties on the Russian side would decrease.

If we go back to my definition of the five war theatres from a year ago (see here), the new front line will likely be something around Kharkov or Sumy. I also see indications of preparations and discussions with people with insights underlining these assumptions. Don’t get me wrong. I do not talk necessarily about the “Big Arrow” offensives. I am talking about the opening of another broad front line that is designed to draw in Ukrainian resources from other theatres. The depletion rate of the Ukrainians, which was stable a year ago, could be restored. In such a case, it is assumed that the sustainability of logistics, casualties, and other resources might not be maintainable.

Missile strikes

To underline what I said above about the dying nation, I want to talk a little about missile strikes. We all know the following: The West is financing and prosecuting the death of a nation. Back in 2022, there were possibilities of humiliating Russian defeats on the battlefield, which could possibly have led to protests in Moscow. That is what this whole operation has been about. Protests in Moscow. The main price would be a revolution and subsequent removal of the current government and replacing it with Yeltsin 2.0.

It has never been about winning against Russia on the battlefield since this is impossible, and that has been well-known to the Western planners. So, unlimited numbers of people are mobilized and sent to their certain deaths not for victory on the battlefield but for the “possibility” of a Maidan in Moscow. This possibility has been gone since the determination that Ukraine’s summer offensive has been defeated. There is no vector left for victory, or for preserving the Ukrainian state. And still, the West is keeping this up with money and materiel. This is a war crime. Sending people to their certain death with the full knowledge that they can’t win or change anything. This war must end ASAP!

Since Ukraine is being forced by its foreign handlers (UK/US) to conduct terrorist attacks against Russian civilians both in Ukraine AND within Russia, Russia, in turn, is forced to react to stop these attacks. The way to stop these attacks against civilians is to strike the following assets:

• Decision-making centers.

• Logistics (Infrastructure, warehouses, hubs, etc.).

• Industrial facilities all over Ukraine that can be used to produce equipment for the battlefield.

• Airfields and their infrastructure.

• Bunkers.

And this is what is currently being done almost daily by large missile and drone attacks across Ukraine. As I wrote at the beginning, this is the death of a nation. Ukraine, or most of it, is being depleted of all resources and assets it had, by military means. And now it uses ever more civilian resources to be able to continue the war. Civilian infrastructure, industrial enterprises, logistics, airfields, energy, and personnel.

The longer Ukraine sustains the front lines to inflict damage on Russians (and on itself) on behalf of foreign powers; the less will be left of what was called “Ukraine.” And that is exactly what the West is paying for. A Scorched Ukraine handed over to Russia when Ukraine eventually collapses. It does not matter to the West when that will be; it is only important to cling on as long as possible.

Air Defense

Ukraine’s air defense (“AD”) capabilities, while not entirely gone, are seriously depleted. What does that mean?

Ukraine maintains operational AD capabilities in a few strategic cities such as Kiev and Odessa, with about five locations at the most. “Operational” means the longer-ranged systems and systems that can shoot down cruise- and ballistic missiles. Generally, the success rate is low, around 20%. To list all the means Russia has at its disposal to overwhelm enemy AD, I would need to write a very long list. And Mike Mihajlovic would do a far better job than I.

I would classify the Patriot, NASAM, and IRIS-T systems as operational AD in the Ukrainian environment. But these systems are problematic for the West. There are several reasons:

• Their success rate is very low. Even though Ukraine always shoots down far more missiles than Russia fired on it (okay, that has changed now, to be fair), the actual military experts of foreign nations who would be potential customers know what is going on. They see that these missiles do not work against a serious adversary. This is a serious image problem and, thus, a marketing ($$) problem.

• The missiles are incredibly expensive. Patriot missiles, depending on the modification, can cost up to several million USD each.

• Russia specifically targets missile depots and control stations. This causes two major problems for the West. These are the most expensive parts for replenishment. It is to be assumed that billions of US and European taxpayer Dollars have already been spent to replenish used or destroyed AD missiles. Tax increases in Europe, anyone?

• It is far from easy to manufacture such missiles: the output rate is very low. Nevertheless, since there are many nations involved in manufacturing missiles, it is to be assumed that there will be a constant trickle into Ukraine that will delay the point at which actual stocks will be depleted. This means, in turn, that the Ukrainian skies will not be safe for Russian planes as long as the war goes on. But, as soon as the supplies go down, missiles will be able to attack every target across Ukraine with fewer suppression efforts.

• It could be in Russia’s, China’s, and Iran’s favor to let the West constantly supply AD systems to Ukraine to deplete the West for other theatres, such as Yemen or, God help us, Taiwan.

• Letting a constant flow of missiles into Ukraine and destroying them in warehouses or destroying them with cheap Geranium drones is an economic and military win for Russia. The same goes for control and radio stations. They are scarce, expensive, and not easy to replace.

Still, there are several short-range tactical AD systems, as well as MANPADS, on the front lines. I want to reiterate here that I assume that Russian aviation will not be able to freely access Ukraine’s airspace during the war. However, Russia has been able to utilize inexpensive drones, as well as a variety of missiles, to reduce the fighting capacity of the UAF without having to unduly risk its air assets.

I wrote a year ago, that I do not believe that Russia will destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. And I still believe that this is the case. It would be a direct hit against civilians. Russia and President Putin are not waging war against Ukrainian civilians. No matter how much the West provokes Russia with terrorist attacks against Russian civilians, this is not going to happen. Unfortunately, it is possible that the Ukrainian power grid could break down because Ukraine can’t maintain it anymore. Let’s hope that this doesn’t happen. I honestly would not want to see that.

Logistics

We covered this topic several times. Ukraine and, therefore, NATO has a challenging task to fulfill the supply of the front lines across the country. Supplies are coming in from Poland and Romania and are sometimes transported for more than 1,000 miles. Everything that needs to go back to the EU for repairs needs to go back the same way.

Russia is allowing this scheme to enable Ukraine to fight in the Donbas — the most unfavorable place on earth for Ukraine. I answered this question previously, but I want to reiterate it here.

Hence, this logistics chain needs to be sustained, which consumes a significant share of the financial support of Ukraine by NATO countries. A lot of civilian workers and assets are also involved in this. Since this is ever less sustainable due to the lack of financial support, Ukraine is trying to set up production capabilities within the country.

This might work for some time. It might work because Russia might want to observe exactly which structures and supply chains within Ukraine are being set up. The worst thing for the West in this logistics and supply chain war is the following: They are supporting Russians against Russians. And not all Ukrainians are brainwashed. More than enough Ukrainians are in influential positions or near strategic assets and are still loyal to their roots. People who consider themselves Russians, Russian-speaking Ukrainians, Soviet Nostalgists, etc. And these people are everywhere. Moreover, Russia has a vast Human Intelligence (HUMINT) network across Ukraine. Hence, it is impossible to wage this logistics and supply-chain war against Russia.

Many people explain the precise Russian strikes against newly shipped Western “Wonder Weapons” by satellite observation. But Ukraine is huge and it does not matter how many satellites you have; you won’t be able to find most of the existing threats. There are reasons for this, and I might explain it another day. As far as I know, most of the critical intelligence regarding logistics and rear target acquisition comes from HUMINT. Of course, this information needs to be verified by more than one source. Here is where satellites and other means come into play.

This is one of the reasons why I personally assume that Russia hesitates to strike Ukrainian intelligence services facilities because there are more than enough Russian loyalists present that might transmit intelligence from time to time. But I guess this is gone because of the terrorist attacks against Russian civilians.

Russia, on the other hand, is building up one of the most impressive logistics and supply chains the world has ever seen. It resembles WW2 efforts or maybe even more impressive. I recommend listening to Colonel Vladimir Trukhan’s explanations in our podcast.

Still, I see no obvious logistical equipment that would indicate an imminent Russian offensive. The equipment might be in place and concealed, but it is still not being taken into position to enable quick Russian advances. This tells me that there is currently no Russian deep penetration in sight. To be clear here, it is entirely possible that Ukraine might collapse as a state without any change on the current front lines. This could happen tomorrow (unlikely) or in several months or in a year. The question is not if Ukraine will collapse, it will. The question is also not if Russia will make any larger offensive moves; it might do this if needed, but currently, it is not needed. The question is only when Ukraine will collapse and open for the Russian takeover.

Defeat

Defeat will occur within the next year. Why? The latest news from NATO is that it is prepared to send hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the Ukrainian border in anticipation of a total collapse and the appearance of Russians on NATO borders. Here is a beautiful (irony) story about Russia attacking the Baltics and taking over Ukraine while moving to Kaliningrad this year. Of course, this is nonsense. Please do not be afraid. 😊

But it shows that NATO is about to prepare its population for the defeat of Ukraine this year and, at the same time, making the Europeans fear an imminent Russian invasion of NATO and EU members. Which is nonsense. It is essentially the same degree of mental issues as claiming that a winning Syrian army is using chemical weapons shortly before finishing off the remainder of its enemies. I feel insulted as a European that I am expected to believe such nonsense.

To summarize: Ukraine will most likely be defeated this year. And the question is not how Russia will reach X, Y, or Z within this time. It simply won’t. It will not reach Odessa or Lvov or whatever. Russia will only make sure that Ukraine collapses; the Ukrainian state and its army. The Americans have more than enough other problems in the upcoming Wars of Liberation. The Europeans will be unable to increase Ukraine's funding to substitute for the Americans. They will try to reallocate their budgets, and the European citizens will not be very happy about that. They will not be happy that their taxes will increase, and their pensions and other social benefits will diminish because their governments intend to send the money to Ukraine.

I have no idea what the front line will look like when the collapse occurs, but it is possible that it will still be in the Donbass.

One more comment on the collapse. The Ukrainian politicians, who are betraying their people and sending them to slaughter, are doing this for money and the agreement that they will be evacuated abroad to a nice house on the beach. All the bribed Ukrainian politicians comply with the rules and orders from the West as long as things look good. For example, the circus around the “Game of Kiev” is shown if everyone involved thinks that they are paid and that they have a plane ticket booked.

When things start to fall apart and people realize that the need for evacuation is inching closer and closer, people start to panic and act irrationally. They are trying to reassure themselves and their superiors that their ticket is still booked. And then things start to go south when they hear the explanations and excuses. Then realization hits hard when the Ukrainian people start to chase and kill them like rabbits for what they have done to them for the last decade. They will not be hanging from a plane like in Kabul. No. There will be no trains when the time comes, that could take them to Poland. They will understand and grasp that it is over. Then, the West will also lose control over them, and the infighting will begin.

We will eventually see the full collapse of Ukraine and the Ukrainian army, no matter where the front lines are at that point. Then a large part of Ukraine, including Kiev, will go to Russia peacefully, with the remainder going to Poland, Hungary, and Romania.

This is why we currently see no big arrow offensives, which would also be detrimental to Russian manpower. Things could always change quickly for whatever reason.

That concludes this first part about the situation in Ukraine. In the next part, we will discuss:

Middle East

To be continued soon.

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[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)