Really stellar writing. You masked is very clear In a simple understandable way just what the USA and its EUroVassals are really up to in terms of thinning the Slavic herd. It’s completely sinister, and the people of this region will not soon forget it.
Not sure I agree that there is some kind of Russian/Chinese/3rd world conspiracy to entrap USA in a minefield of conflicts.
The USA has done this entirely itself. Yes we are seeing the collapse of USA (though historians will date it to around 2015 not 2025). And obviously the points where US has pushed furthest (ME, Ukraine) are the first losses. And if the US is failing then Israel has already fallen.
The principle in judo is to... help your opponent to go where his body wants to go, due to physics. Ideally ending with them helplessly entangled in an awkward hold, facefirst into the dirt, reconsidering their decisions.
Particularly dangerous opponents might impact hard/sharp objects on the way to the ground.
Putin is a master judoka. The Chinese know kung fu. They understand the Art of War, and correctly see their opponent, the Hegemon, desiring in its body posture the physics of supine collapse.
Sure. But the real question then is that if the US dropped its ego and just behaved in its own best interests would Russia or China be working against US? I don't think so.
Yes I think so. There is a great multipolar world now that America could join as a partner. So the question are "is USA psychologically equipped to be a partner, not a bully?" (probably not) and does US behaviour reflect pure stupidity or a certain self-knowledge that it would fail in a sharing environment just as it will fail trying to lead.
If anyone will throw off the globalist yoke in the Anglo world it's possibly the US Americans - 1776 and 2nd Amendment land. But will the current configuration of the Union survive - it seems doubtful to me. In the meantime the US could retreat into its collection of five eye states + remainders. The current ploy of stuffing the country with "illegals" to swing an election; now that's creating a mess.
I cannot either recognize the irrationality of Germany and other EU countries. The propaganda and fear mongering is just off the charts.
I’m picking up my jaw from the floor when I see what has become of the EU - it was supposed to be a project facilitate free movement of people, goods and money, along with a common currency.
As far as I recall, this slide started with the demands to accept quotas of migrants, human rights, LGBTQ .... and the EU project slowly morphed into a “uniform value” project, a bureaucracy machine and eventually a geopolitical tool; now effectively an extension of the USA, where dissent isn’t allowed.
1) I read in Slaviangrad at Telegram that one of the reasons for the Russian not going into full offensive is that still on the realm of FPV drones and such the Ukranian still have the upper hand in terms of numbers, and they are currently using it massively against single infantry man instead of artillery. It seems that Russians are leveling the field by numbers and by using AI in their drones so as to disable EW from Ukraine (making the drone independent from the operator once the target is identified). Although Russians have the upper hand in EW, for such a long line of contact these resources are slim. Maybe you already mentioned it. Any thoughts?
2) If Ukraine collapses, is still there a risk of NATO troops invading and occupying Odessa so as to deny Russians the full control of the Black Sea coast up to Romania? It would be very annoying to the Russian to face a fait accompli and risk attacking US troops.
Yes, it's true. Ukraine is building up its drone capabilities, as I mentioned in the article, particularly around the most contested frontlines. A general Russian offensive obviously would not advance through the front door, where defenses are strongest. It would likely be conducted elsewhere, in areas with fewer Ukrainian defensive installations and troops, such as Kharkiv or Sumy. Nevertheless, Russia has already begun targeting drone production and storage sites with missile strikes. Additionally, the A-50s and other AWACS are tracking the signals of these drones and their operators, targeting the operators as well. This is currently a problem on the actual frontlines, which Russia will adapt to, as I've explained. But again, a general offensive, if it happens, would likely occur elsewhere, stretching Ukrainian resources thin.
Ultimately, it all comes down to how much one is willing to accept casualties in the initial phase of a general offensive. Colonel Trukhan explained this very well in our podcast.
If this is essentially a Russian civil war whose principal beneficiaries are in Washington, this raises the question why Russia does not use enough force to end it, once and for all.
Then again, this entire war has been a series of massive miscalculations on the part of Russia, primarily stemming from a refusal to accept just how sociopathic their enemies are.
Russia wants the Ukrainians to see the West as being the bad guys, to cause an understanding UA has lost because the West forced them to do the war and then betrayed them. This will ease the reconciliation with RU enormously. RU don't need and don't want disloyal population, that would bring more harm than benefit.
I dunno, a heavy Russian hand worked out in Chechnya.
And how many times have the Americans betrayed the Kurds, six now is it or seven? But they keep coming back for more.
And Ukraine is not the place for an insurgency. One thing successful insurgencies all have in common is a young population. The median age in Yemen in something like 19. The median age in Ukraine was over 40 - and that statistic from before the war.
Many ukies in the West will never come back in Ukraine except to see family or friends (if still alive), as they make in rich countries 10 x more money not working with multiple free advantages they will never have in Ukraine, many are young, children, women, some with better instruction can even work and make even more money even in a low level job as hotel receptionnist (50k yearly in my country + tons of extra legal advantages), free school, free health, free transport etc, some have a free studio, condo or hotel room, just need to speak English at a medim level).Don't forget that money from the West is not a gift, they are loans that multiple generations will have to pay them back. Agri was sold to Cargil, Monsanto, Blackrock etc...in fact Ukraine de facto ceased to exist.
In Germany they even don't have to work. Housing, heating and health services are free plus "Bürgergeld" which equals to a low to medium income. Many German pensioners don't get as much and even I will not get. Thank god, I own some houses which generate income for me.
The majority of Chechens are aware that foreign islamists where brought into the country to feed the conflict. Grozny was rebuilt very fast. And if there was still a picture of Chechens as terrorists or mafia from the 90th in Russian heads - the Chechen engagement (including the exceptional PR they where entitled to) in Mariupol has cleaned that up.
I don't think the comparison with Chechnia is helpful.
UA had in the 50th a lot of antisoviet activities, backed by the West. In war, it is not only about fighting. Disloyal people providing intelligence is bad enough.
But in the post Maidan chaos, the nationalists took over the mafia-state that is the equally significant power structure. The population is captive to that structure. More so now that all the sane who could, fled. It's fundamentally incompatible, so reconciliation is a lost cause. But on the other hand, their power isn't rooted in the population in most of the country.
I’m with you on this. If, as the author states, “Russia will only make sure that Ukraine collapses; the Ukrainian state and its army.”, it could have done so already by focusing on taking out Ukraines leadership. But Russia openly stated it would not do so. That, to me, is all the evidence I need that no matter what you call it, this is an internecine squabble amongst various criminal gangs over dividing up of territory and resources.
The concept of “oh, Russia can’t do X because this is an SMO so they’re restricted by blah blah and blah” is circular - Russia self imposed these limitations so they’re artificial constraints.
This thing will end once the backroom deals have been made. The interim is just tragedy.
"...it could have done so already by focusing on taking out Ukraines leadership. But Russia openly stated it would not do so"
But here's the problem with your "solution"; the Ukraine 'leadership' isn't in Ukraine is it? The scum in Kiev are just expendable puppets. Kill them and the US will appoint more of the same.
Russia is doing exactly what is has stated it will do from the start, demilitarisation and deNAZIfication. And pushing NATO out.
Thousands upon thousands of words have been penned re this basic fact, but you haven't been taking heed obviously.
There are still many 'intel' who are pro RU (even more now seing ukr losing), in SBU, around main ministeries etc..RU will keep them 'alive' till the very moment they decide to finish 404 once and for all (they provide infos for targets). French légion has been near Odessa for 16 months lot of French spoken in Odessa bars. Same for the Brits SAS near Nikolaev. Kiev a bit of all but more CIA BND oriented.
Hmm. So, if a goal is denazification, but we shouldn’t take out the leadership of said nazis because they’ll just be replaced with new nazi leaders... then why bother with any of it? Even if you’re correct, would you not agree that taking out the top layers of political and military leadership would, at least on the margins, be a negative for Ukraine and advance the progress towards the goals? Certainly Ukraine’s success in assassinating and taking out Russian figures, especially numerous senior military officers, has not been positive for Russia.
My point is simply that particularly in light of the “thousands and thousands of words” written about the putative objectives, Russia simply doesn’t seem, in my opinion, to be doing the things one would expect in furtherance of said objectives. To the contrary, it appears to me (while acknowledging that I do not speak the language and thus am reliant on translated information, which itself may be incorrect or incomplete), that Russia has actively engaged in activities that would seem diametrically opposed to their stated objectives.
FWIW in terms of context, although I think Russia (by which I mean the collection of oligarchic factions who Putin nominally keeps in check) is, on balance, the aggrieved “side” based on decades of NATO encroachment and the laundry list of Western shenanigans that need not be repeated here, I do not actually care how the whole mess turns out beyond morbid curiosity over the spectacle.
Russia China Iran have all had revolutions against this mindset who now create a very different alternative where the sovereign state has meaning , value to its people.
It takes time.
A century of struggle.
These countries know what they have as the EU bankrupts it’s basic human potential in search of booty.
Why not wait for the EU people to realize their leaders are worthless makes perfect sense.
Why would anyone want those lands until the citizens wake up?
If only a life could be worth another life... while Snorty is enjoying his holidays with his fellow minded friends just a stray zircon could be enough.... to end this all.
It seems likely that these factors you mention and more are careening toward a collision point. Of course cannot say with certainly just how it will go down and I doubt anyone is in real control, but they do seem interrelated. Germany is one to watch as the lack of cheap energy drive the economy downward and the ecofascists make ‘crazy’ the new normal. As for the USA: this election cycle looks to be the most explosive to date.
Thank you. A very concise, plausible summation.
Really stellar writing. You masked is very clear In a simple understandable way just what the USA and its EUroVassals are really up to in terms of thinning the Slavic herd. It’s completely sinister, and the people of this region will not soon forget it.
Thanks.
Great reading!
Excellent as ever.
Not sure I agree that there is some kind of Russian/Chinese/3rd world conspiracy to entrap USA in a minefield of conflicts.
The USA has done this entirely itself. Yes we are seeing the collapse of USA (though historians will date it to around 2015 not 2025). And obviously the points where US has pushed furthest (ME, Ukraine) are the first losses. And if the US is failing then Israel has already fallen.
The principle in judo is to... help your opponent to go where his body wants to go, due to physics. Ideally ending with them helplessly entangled in an awkward hold, facefirst into the dirt, reconsidering their decisions.
Particularly dangerous opponents might impact hard/sharp objects on the way to the ground.
Putin is a master judoka. The Chinese know kung fu. They understand the Art of War, and correctly see their opponent, the Hegemon, desiring in its body posture the physics of supine collapse.
They will be as helpful as they can.
Sure. But the real question then is that if the US dropped its ego and just behaved in its own best interests would Russia or China be working against US? I don't think so.
They'd be working toward an equitable global security and economic structure that accommodates each power pole's interests.
But for the US to look after its *own* interests it would have to abandon the parasitic Globalists who have fully colonized their host.
Yes I think so. There is a great multipolar world now that America could join as a partner. So the question are "is USA psychologically equipped to be a partner, not a bully?" (probably not) and does US behaviour reflect pure stupidity or a certain self-knowledge that it would fail in a sharing environment just as it will fail trying to lead.
If anyone will throw off the globalist yoke in the Anglo world it's possibly the US Americans - 1776 and 2nd Amendment land. But will the current configuration of the Union survive - it seems doubtful to me. In the meantime the US could retreat into its collection of five eye states + remainders. The current ploy of stuffing the country with "illegals" to swing an election; now that's creating a mess.
Very good summary Aleks!
I cannot either recognize the irrationality of Germany and other EU countries. The propaganda and fear mongering is just off the charts.
I’m picking up my jaw from the floor when I see what has become of the EU - it was supposed to be a project facilitate free movement of people, goods and money, along with a common currency.
As far as I recall, this slide started with the demands to accept quotas of migrants, human rights, LGBTQ .... and the EU project slowly morphed into a “uniform value” project, a bureaucracy machine and eventually a geopolitical tool; now effectively an extension of the USA, where dissent isn’t allowed.
Thanks Alex for the update.
2 points:
1) I read in Slaviangrad at Telegram that one of the reasons for the Russian not going into full offensive is that still on the realm of FPV drones and such the Ukranian still have the upper hand in terms of numbers, and they are currently using it massively against single infantry man instead of artillery. It seems that Russians are leveling the field by numbers and by using AI in their drones so as to disable EW from Ukraine (making the drone independent from the operator once the target is identified). Although Russians have the upper hand in EW, for such a long line of contact these resources are slim. Maybe you already mentioned it. Any thoughts?
2) If Ukraine collapses, is still there a risk of NATO troops invading and occupying Odessa so as to deny Russians the full control of the Black Sea coast up to Romania? It would be very annoying to the Russian to face a fait accompli and risk attacking US troops.
Thanks Andres,
1)
Yes, it's true. Ukraine is building up its drone capabilities, as I mentioned in the article, particularly around the most contested frontlines. A general Russian offensive obviously would not advance through the front door, where defenses are strongest. It would likely be conducted elsewhere, in areas with fewer Ukrainian defensive installations and troops, such as Kharkiv or Sumy. Nevertheless, Russia has already begun targeting drone production and storage sites with missile strikes. Additionally, the A-50s and other AWACS are tracking the signals of these drones and their operators, targeting the operators as well. This is currently a problem on the actual frontlines, which Russia will adapt to, as I've explained. But again, a general offensive, if it happens, would likely occur elsewhere, stretching Ukrainian resources thin.
Ultimately, it all comes down to how much one is willing to accept casualties in the initial phase of a general offensive. Colonel Trukhan explained this very well in our podcast.
2)
I wrote about that a year ago, and my opinion hasn't changed. See here: https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/prospects-for-world-war-3-dedicated
Drones are indeed game-changing but Russia can produce way more drones than Ukraine. + Russian EW is better at suppressing enemy drones.
If this is essentially a Russian civil war whose principal beneficiaries are in Washington, this raises the question why Russia does not use enough force to end it, once and for all.
Then again, this entire war has been a series of massive miscalculations on the part of Russia, primarily stemming from a refusal to accept just how sociopathic their enemies are.
Russia wants the Ukrainians to see the West as being the bad guys, to cause an understanding UA has lost because the West forced them to do the war and then betrayed them. This will ease the reconciliation with RU enormously. RU don't need and don't want disloyal population, that would bring more harm than benefit.
I dunno, a heavy Russian hand worked out in Chechnya.
And how many times have the Americans betrayed the Kurds, six now is it or seven? But they keep coming back for more.
And Ukraine is not the place for an insurgency. One thing successful insurgencies all have in common is a young population. The median age in Yemen in something like 19. The median age in Ukraine was over 40 - and that statistic from before the war.
Many ukies in the West will never come back in Ukraine except to see family or friends (if still alive), as they make in rich countries 10 x more money not working with multiple free advantages they will never have in Ukraine, many are young, children, women, some with better instruction can even work and make even more money even in a low level job as hotel receptionnist (50k yearly in my country + tons of extra legal advantages), free school, free health, free transport etc, some have a free studio, condo or hotel room, just need to speak English at a medim level).Don't forget that money from the West is not a gift, they are loans that multiple generations will have to pay them back. Agri was sold to Cargil, Monsanto, Blackrock etc...in fact Ukraine de facto ceased to exist.
In Germany they even don't have to work. Housing, heating and health services are free plus "Bürgergeld" which equals to a low to medium income. Many German pensioners don't get as much and even I will not get. Thank god, I own some houses which generate income for me.
The majority of Chechens are aware that foreign islamists where brought into the country to feed the conflict. Grozny was rebuilt very fast. And if there was still a picture of Chechens as terrorists or mafia from the 90th in Russian heads - the Chechen engagement (including the exceptional PR they where entitled to) in Mariupol has cleaned that up.
I don't think the comparison with Chechnia is helpful.
UA had in the 50th a lot of antisoviet activities, backed by the West. In war, it is not only about fighting. Disloyal people providing intelligence is bad enough.
Most Chechens were not exactly fans of Russia before the reconstruction effort, which came after a rather harsh pacification campaign.
When I lived in Ukraine (2004 - 2012), nationalists were seen as freaks and losers.
But in the post Maidan chaos, the nationalists took over the mafia-state that is the equally significant power structure. The population is captive to that structure. More so now that all the sane who could, fled. It's fundamentally incompatible, so reconciliation is a lost cause. But on the other hand, their power isn't rooted in the population in most of the country.
Well, the "maybe if we act really nice, Ukraine will make peace" mentality isn't compatible with that mindset, either.
I’m with you on this. If, as the author states, “Russia will only make sure that Ukraine collapses; the Ukrainian state and its army.”, it could have done so already by focusing on taking out Ukraines leadership. But Russia openly stated it would not do so. That, to me, is all the evidence I need that no matter what you call it, this is an internecine squabble amongst various criminal gangs over dividing up of territory and resources.
The concept of “oh, Russia can’t do X because this is an SMO so they’re restricted by blah blah and blah” is circular - Russia self imposed these limitations so they’re artificial constraints.
This thing will end once the backroom deals have been made. The interim is just tragedy.
"...it could have done so already by focusing on taking out Ukraines leadership. But Russia openly stated it would not do so"
But here's the problem with your "solution"; the Ukraine 'leadership' isn't in Ukraine is it? The scum in Kiev are just expendable puppets. Kill them and the US will appoint more of the same.
Russia is doing exactly what is has stated it will do from the start, demilitarisation and deNAZIfication. And pushing NATO out.
Thousands upon thousands of words have been penned re this basic fact, but you haven't been taking heed obviously.
Better to know your puppets, and let the puppets tangle their own strings.
There are still many 'intel' who are pro RU (even more now seing ukr losing), in SBU, around main ministeries etc..RU will keep them 'alive' till the very moment they decide to finish 404 once and for all (they provide infos for targets). French légion has been near Odessa for 16 months lot of French spoken in Odessa bars. Same for the Brits SAS near Nikolaev. Kiev a bit of all but more CIA BND oriented.
Yep, good points. And Russia (maybe VVP himself IIRC) alluded to that recently that there are people standing by ready to take over.
Hmm. So, if a goal is denazification, but we shouldn’t take out the leadership of said nazis because they’ll just be replaced with new nazi leaders... then why bother with any of it? Even if you’re correct, would you not agree that taking out the top layers of political and military leadership would, at least on the margins, be a negative for Ukraine and advance the progress towards the goals? Certainly Ukraine’s success in assassinating and taking out Russian figures, especially numerous senior military officers, has not been positive for Russia.
My point is simply that particularly in light of the “thousands and thousands of words” written about the putative objectives, Russia simply doesn’t seem, in my opinion, to be doing the things one would expect in furtherance of said objectives. To the contrary, it appears to me (while acknowledging that I do not speak the language and thus am reliant on translated information, which itself may be incorrect or incomplete), that Russia has actively engaged in activities that would seem diametrically opposed to their stated objectives.
FWIW in terms of context, although I think Russia (by which I mean the collection of oligarchic factions who Putin nominally keeps in check) is, on balance, the aggrieved “side” based on decades of NATO encroachment and the laundry list of Western shenanigans that need not be repeated here, I do not actually care how the whole mess turns out beyond morbid curiosity over the spectacle.
Mostly, what these commentators are doing is attempting to retcon.
Russia China Iran have all had revolutions against this mindset who now create a very different alternative where the sovereign state has meaning , value to its people.
It takes time.
A century of struggle.
These countries know what they have as the EU bankrupts it’s basic human potential in search of booty.
Why not wait for the EU people to realize their leaders are worthless makes perfect sense.
Why would anyone want those lands until the citizens wake up?
It is a War of Liberation from the violent colonial mindset who sacrifices million and millions of innocent lives in exchange for booty.
Civilization and its wealth is plunder as well.
Those resisting are those who have suffered cultural annihilation
Thank You, Aleks.
Thank You, John :)
There's nothing important about Russian squad and platoon actions.
Russia isn't capable of forming an "armoured fist".
They are barely capable of forming an armoured needle.
Armoured tactics are pitiful.
Commanders are so useless they won't move off cleared paths allowing following units to move forward and back.
There is no evidence of infantry, artillery, or aerospace cover and defence of armoured units.
There is no evidence anyone is improving ineffective mine clearance equipment or tactics.
Currently, demining doesn't produce a lane 3 or 4 times tank width for tactical width.
Tanks are destroyed in detail, one-by-one, without any reply.
They remind me of 1944 Normandy with Wittmann's Tiger tank rolling along a stupid British column killing everything and everybody.
Russia failed to ensure they mobilized resources to win this war quickly.
Russia has failed to use massive advantages in armour, artillery tubes and ammo, aircraft, navy and missiles.
They have failed to turn these advantages into combined arms units capable of victory.
They have chosen moronic WWI attacks on entrenched positions selected and prepared for 9 years by AFU-WASHINGTON.
Russians make stupid WWII attacks on fortified urban areas as if they had never heard of Stalingrad or Berlin.
Russia's "thinking" is restricted to pathetic squad and platoon actions incapable of decisively defeating untrained, poorly armed, unsupported, badly led, terrified civilians.
Georges Clemenceau (1841 - 1929): "War is a series of catastrophes that results in a victory."
Russia's victories have come by revealing Washington's monstrous, brain-dead calculation that destroying Ukraine would destroy Russia.
Biden thought this would save him, instead of revealing him and EVERY US government as psychopathic, senile, Nazi fools.
Ukraine's "mobilization" will destroy whatever is left of Ukraine's legal economy.
Once again warfare is revealed as the province of the criminally stupid.
Thomas Mann (1875 - 1955): "War is a cowardly escape from the problems of peace."
Even though I don't agree with your assessment I welcome your view.
I'd like to recommend the following article for further reading:
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/war-update-dedicated-to-slavyangrad
Brilliant essay.
Big article, well worth the read, and masterfully laid out friend.
Nothing in there I can disagree with whatsoever.
Remember the gigantic walls of text, you demanded? :D :D :D
Thank you, Steve, as always!
Point 3) crazy sums it up insanely well.
Sir... thanks.
If only a life could be worth another life... while Snorty is enjoying his holidays with his fellow minded friends just a stray zircon could be enough.... to end this all.
This is my dream... but I am only a fool...
Snorty :D
Is it possible that Isra Hell will relocate to whatever remains of newkraine that Russia doesn't want to deal with?
The Arrogant West is doing a great job of destroying itself.
Trust me, I live here, and all I see everywhere is empty buildings and homeless...
It seems likely that these factors you mention and more are careening toward a collision point. Of course cannot say with certainly just how it will go down and I doubt anyone is in real control, but they do seem interrelated. Germany is one to watch as the lack of cheap energy drive the economy downward and the ecofascists make ‘crazy’ the new normal. As for the USA: this election cycle looks to be the most explosive to date.