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Welcome to my first article.
I want to address the following topics:
What objectives could the West possibly have in Ukraine
What objectives could Russia have possibly in Ukraine
Who is winning in terms of political objectives?
The West is struggling in Ukraine against Russia. Since the media is generating a lot of fog of war about the conflict, I want to bring some clarity into the goals of the involved parties.
Before I go deeper into the issue, I want to bring two quotes.
Carl von Clausewitz
“War is the continuation of policy with other means”
I will present bellow the political objectives, that I consider the parties are trying to achieve. To fully understand, what is going on in Ukraine, we mustn’t only look at “who is winning on the battlefield”, but we must look beyond.
Scott W. Ritter
“By not losing, Ukraine is winning the war”
If we take the first and the second quote into consideration, then we can assume, that Russia is losing the war, as long as she didn’t achieve its set political goals. This status will change as soon as Russia achieves its political goals or are close to do so.
Please keep these facts always in mind when you read news about the war in Ukraine.
What objectives could the West possibly have in Ukraine:
Of course, I can only analyse the data, I have access to. That’s why we need to consider the following as my assumptions.
The West hast multiple objectives in Ukraine.
The West follows the principles of capitalism. It needs growth, to sustain itself further on. Its citizens are used to a certain degree of living standard. If it would decrease, or collapse, then the political system in the Western countries would be in danger. The living standard can be sustained, or even increased, if the certain countries economy is growing. To be able to grow, a developed country needs new markets, if its domestic market is saturated. It needs to export goods and commodities. And it needs to produce those cheap, to maximize its profits. The first objective I want to present is the economic one. Ukraine has plenty of resources. The West highly depends on all kind of resources, to be able to produce cheap commodities. Either on its own, or through extended workbenches. Moreover, Ukraine is a very poor country. Especially since the coup in 2014. The West is using Ukraine since then as an extended workbench, to produce, due to cheap labour, cheap commodities. Especially the European automotive industry used it extensively. Energy is another factor. Due to deindustrialization, happening since 2014, Ukraine uses ever less energy. But it inherited huge energy producing capacities from the Soviet Union. The surplus is being sold cheaply to Europe. The last factor is food (grain) and fertilizers. As long as Europe has access to cheap food and fertilizers it has less problems with its own citizens. We saw the drama over the grain export from Black Sea ports, this year. Almost the whole export of grain went to European states. That of course is one of the reasons, why Europe was demanding the release of the grain. I doubt it would have intervened this way, for African countries. Which is a shame.
Ukraine is a huge country. Huge countries always have strategic importance, to any greater, regional or world power. In this case, this huge country is located deep in Russia’s “belly” and not far from Russia’s western big cities like, Moscow, Rostow, Belgorod etc. It also holds a huge section of the northern Black Sea and stretches along the borders of Belarus, which is a close ally of Russia. Moreover, it provides strategic depth in direction of Poland and Germany. Having access to Poland and Ukraine, NATO would have all the strategic depth and staging area, that Germany in the second world war had as well, for execution of “Operation Barbarossa”. For conventional warfare. Moreover, could NATO station all kinds of weapons and missiles in Ukraine, that could reach the big Russian cities within minutes. This in turn is an unacceptable risk for Russian statehood and for the whole world. Russian defensive systems would need to be activated on fully automatic mode, since no human being is able to react to a missile strike within, say, three minutes and to launch counter measures. When “Perimetr” is activated on fully automatic mode, then every little mistake or failure would execute AUTOMATICALLY the end of the world. I would assume, no-one, not even the population of the West, would like to be in such a situation.
The challenge, that the West is facing in Ukraine is, that Ukrainians are Russians. Who likes to state it the other way around, it is fine for me as well. Russians are Ukrainians. Since both are genetically and culturally the same, I don’t care how to call them. The have the same genetic code, the same culture, the same faith and the same language. So, how to turn them against Russia? Since WW2 provided a good working ground, the Nazi group of Bandera, the Western agencies, tried to exploit this ever since. They started already during the days of the Soviet Union, to seed some “Ukrainian culture” and “Ukrainian Language”, that no one speaks whatsoever. Also, they tried to promote war criminals, murders, and Nazis like Bandera as hero. This Psy-Ops eventually, in 2014 succeeded and brought the final break between both brothers.
When all three objectives are achieved, then the West would have won completely.
Having created an Anti-Russia in Russia’s backyard, which provides itself to the West with all its resources and labour and space for military deployment.
What objectives could Russia possibly have in Ukraine:
Russia of course has the exact opposite objectives in Ukraine. That’s why I will go into these topics only in short.
Integrating Ukraine, like in Soviet times, into its own Eurasian Union. Thereby providing prosperity to Ukraine to strengthening the bonds between those two countries. Since Russia considers both nations as one, it feels some responsibility for it, its people and prosperity.
Russia needs for its own good and for the whole world, a strategic buffer to NATO. This is provided by Belarus and Ukraine. Baltics are insignificant. If no buffer in depth is provided, all defensive systems (Perimetr) would need to run on automatic. This would lead to the end of the world within a very short time, because of mistakes. Moreover, Ukraine and Belarus were the buffer for Moscow in WW2, to have time, to prepare its defensives around Moscow and to activate the wartime production behind the Urals and the general mobilisation. Nothing changed here. It is still needed for such a case.
Russia wants to not only have friendly ties between Russia and Ukraine, but brotherly. To integrate both countries in a union state, like Belarus. (This was before the war). Why? Because both are the same people. All three.
If Russia would have achieved those three goals (still possible), the West would have a very strong block opposing its system of world colonialization with military and economic means.
I tried to compile only the objectives of both parties regarding Ukraine. Of course, the “objectives” game is multi-dimensional. There are far more objectives, concerning global topics like BRICS, NATO etc. I will address them in separate articles.
Who is winning in terms of political objectives?
Since we saw the objectives of both parties, we need to remember the two quotes mentioned above. As long as one side don’t achieve all objectives, it loses. If one side achieves all objectives, it has won. Both situations didn’t materialize yet. They are struggling. And fairly said, as long as NATO don’t decide to intervene with own troops, Russia will close this struggle over Ukraine soon with a decisive victory.
Nevertheless, we need to take the following facts into consideration:
I assume, that it was clearly communicated and “agreed” between the US and Russia, in December 2021, that Ukraine will go back to Russia. But not without a fight. Since the West knows exactly, what Ukraine is awaiting, being again part of Russia, the objectives above changed. The new objectives are, to make all the Russian objectives as hard as possible to achieve. Therefore, we see a strategy of scorched earth. Ukraine will go back to Russia, but the West makes darn sure, that it will be in shutters and that as many Ukrainians and Russians dies as possible, to activate eternal hatred against each other.
Since the same people are fighting against each other, I consider the whole war as a Russian civil war. Taking this into consideration is every death, both - Ukrainian and Russian - a win for the West.
Every piece of destroyed infrastructure in Ukraine is a blow to Russia since it will be part of Russia soon. And Russia will need to rebuild it and pay for it.
Every killed Ukrainian has a family. This family will hate Russians forever. Since the Ukrainians are micromanaged by Western services on the battlefield, there is no possibility of surrender. There are no structures, that could order a surrender. The West wants to make darn sure, that all able-bodied Ukrainians are pushed into the meat grinder and dies there. Remember, every dead solider has a family which will hate Russia.
Taking this into considerations, we can now understand, why both, the West and the Ukrainian leadership is provoking Russia as much as possible, to trigger large scale retaliations. Russia in general and Putin, in particular, is thinking about, what will be AFTER the war. About the reconciliation between both parties. If Russia kills too many Ukrainians or destroys too much infrastructure, where the ordinary Ukrainians will suffer, the costs for Russia, to get rid of the Western scorched earth will rise. If you ask yourself constantly why Putin is not doing this or that or whatever, then the answer will always be: “Strategic thinking”. If you sustain now some degree of damage, to avoid eternal damage between Ukrainian and Russian people, then it might be worth it in long-term.
I will explain this approach in more detail in my coming military analysis.
Considering all this, the whole war and EVERYTHING that happens in the war, every campaign, operation and battle, every dead… everything - on both sides - is ALWAYS a win for the west.
Eventually Ukraine will be back in Russia, the question is, how much scorched earth will be created until this point. This will determine how many years (I assume 20-30) will be needed, to reconcile both people.
My first article ends here.
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