Awesome read, thanks Mike! I agree, Russian A/D will eventually generate a profile for these decoys (newer version, the better). I'd suspect the airfields may be hit after a couple of sorties to learn their profiles, then ka-blam-o. I could see ground-based A/D attacking sorties as a first wave, followed by R-37s immediately thereafter.
Also: most of the wűnderwaffen has been old/obsolete weapon platforms. In your opinion: how do you anticipate the latest versions to fare against Russian assets? NATO has a larger compliment of aeroplanes, but lessons learned thus far, plus lessons learned from the brave Serbs (Nighthawk shoot down for the uninitiated) should tilt the playing field against NATO.
The received wisdom, common myth, is that for every incoming target, the Ukrainians' air defence fires two missiles. If Russian air defence does the same, will not the first missile take out the towed drone or single decoy, and the second remove the aircraft carrying them? Does this actually happen?
NATO has a limited number of pilots and as if not more importantly trained ground crews, the same applies for all of the systems frankly which are not operable by the Ukrainians.
Each system (patriot, NASRAM, F16 etc) destroyed removes those trained personnel - as do ground attacks where they are bilited.
Given the consensus seems to be that the Ukraine at the very best had enough time to train a limited number (we're talking about the 6 months prior to the Kharkov offensive when they for the only time had a 6 month window to send specialists abroad to train on these systems) then the amount of these remaining trained to a decent standard crews of Ukrainian origin is likely almost now zero net.
Meaning we've seen many either sheep dipped current NATO personnel or more like "reservists' on these systems operating them within the Ukraine for the past year or more in greater numbers as the systems and crews are destroyed and new ones sent
Ultimately this is degrading severely NATO capabilities in terms of its own highly skilled system operators and crews, even if these are 'just' reservists then it means should NATO decide to go onto a war footing they are gonna quickly be in the same situation as the Ukraine are, simply not enough people trained to operate and maintain the systems - especially if the number of systems increases greatly (the guys they'd normally use to meet this requirement will be the same reservists already dead in the Ukraine)
Over time for the Ukraine this can only mean one thing, the systems they are given will have to be manned by guys with minimal training in operating these systems effectively, I believe we hsve stsrted to see this skresdy the past 3 months.
It's a strong reason I believe we are seeing more and more strikes against previously hard to hit targets - notably the HIMARS systems - the guys now using them are simply unable to utilise the system correctly - fire relocate hide under an AA shield, instead due to inexperienced they are reacting much slower and also bring exposed in the open.
biden is not going to get any conservative riled up and enthusiastic about the ruling class' coming planned attack on china in the way trump is going to. It seems very obvious that the NeoCon ruling class need trump in the white house before they can launch their planned attack on china. They need him to be at the helm to lead americans into the attack because conservatives (who are the backbone of the billionaire's global execution force, known as the american military) are not going to be very enthused to go across the ocean to murder for the ruling class if Biden or Newsom tells them to do so, but if it's trump, their own righteous billioanire messiah, leading the charge and telling them to go kill those evil commies/globalists/leftists (for "freedom and morality", of course) then his well-intentioned but heavily-propagamdized and deceived MAGA/Qanon followers will be extremely enthusiastic to do the billionaire's bidding, with a gusto of extremely powerful religious-nationalistic passion in their support for the troops and the president. It will be the just like the psychosis of religious nationslist war frenzy after 9/11 all over again. The ruling class absolutely must have trump (and not biden or newsom) leading americans into their planned attack.
There is also going to be a lot of bible waving, while Anti-Christ trump and his God-ignorant deep-state GOP war profiteers will frequently use the words "jesus" and "holy war" and "the last battle of good vs evil", which will send their well-intentioned but thoroughly deceived conservative base into a gushing orgasm, a nationalist-religious feeding frenzy and extreme enthusiasm for the ruling class' war plans.
That's why they need trump (and not biden) in office to lead the planned attack. Trump and his deep state zionist war-profiteering billionaires will enter the white house in january, and then of course they'll need to set the stage with a few months of very intense 24/7 wall-to-wall propagaganda in the billionaire's disinformation media about the "evil aggression of china" (which doesn't have a single military base outside its territory, while the american empire has about 900 military bases encircling the entire globe, in addition to dozens of warships colonizing every ocean on the face of the globe, as well as at least 13 extra-judicial torture camps, where american conservative merceneries hold kidnapped human beings in captivity for years without trial or accusation and torture them, because.. "freedom and moral values").
After a few months of hammering into americans' head nonstop 24/7 how china is an evil aggressor and the new hitler, then you'll have the conveniently-timed decleration of independence by american-paid separatists in taiwan, which china will obviously reject, and the stage will be set for the "righteous" attack (for "freedom and moral values" of course), possibly in the spring/summer of 2025. And just like after 9/11, the majority of heavily-propagandized americans will be fully in support of it (including 99% of well-intentioned but thoroughly deceived conservatives who will be in the mode of holy-war end-times jesus-is-coming-back, and fully united behind their mass-murdering psychologically-undeveloped narcissist infantile pro-billionaire pro-Wall St anti-Christ God-ignorant zionist messiah leading the charge against 'the evil commie aggression'.
So we have about a year, give or take, before they pull the trigger, before they put all the pieces of the puzzle together (1. trump in office and leading the charge, 2. months of very intense 24/7 wall-to-wall nationalist propaganda to turn china into a literal hitler, an unbearable scary evil monster who wants to hurt americans in any way it can, so we just must take down this hitler-like monster first before they take "us" down 3. taiwan declaration of independence. 4. American military bases in the countries surrounding china completed and ready to launch misslies and war planes) and pull the trigger.
PS. If the billionaire ruling class cannot generate strong public support for their planned attack, despite their months of 24/7 wall-to-wall intense propaganda campaign to turn china into a hitler and evil aggressor in the eyes of americans, then there is also the possibility that they'll pull another 9/11 sort of false flag event, to get everyone into a state of traumatic shock, fear, anger and hatred, and fully on board with their attack plans..
As for why the billionaire ruling class are going to attack china soon - after trump and his deep-state zionist billionaire war-profiteers enter the white house in January - see this profound essay (which includes full citations) which IMHO is a must read for every human on the planet who wishes to understand exactly how we are being played https://www.pdrboston.org/oppressors-need-bogeyman-enemies
PPS. Two more pieces of the puzzle (which i didn’t mention above) that the billionaire ruling class put together to get everything ready for the attack in 2025, is that they had the leaders in the countries surrounding china replaced, from those not committed to china-hostility and the planned attack, into puppets who do exactly as the empire tells them, ramp up anti-china hostility and open their country to american military bases in preparation for the attack.
Two examples of this are in Japan and the philippines. In Japan they assasinated prime minister Abe, who refused to commit to their attack plans on china, and replaced him with their ultra-nationalist puppet, Kishida, who changed japan’s constitution to allow for greater militarization of society, removed constitutional limits on military spending, filled his cabinet with pro-american pro-zionist NeoCons, and approved massive american military build up in Japan's southern okinawan islands (literally minutes of flight/missle distance from the chinese mainland), in preparation for the attack. And in the philippines, where they replaced Duerte (who was against the war plans on china and sought greater cooperation) with their well-paid puppet Marcos, who gave the american war machine the northen Luzon island (the closest philipino island to china) to build several military bases in preparation for the attack, and who drastically changed course from Duerte and immediately started promoting china hatred in the philippines, and constantly sends the philippines navy into idiotic skirmishes with chinese boats in the south china sea in order to promote nationalist hostility towards china in the philippines, in preparation for the attack. He and his pay-masters in the american ruling class are doing that becasue they are playing on the people the trick that ruling class oppressors always play on us. Again, this trick is described in detail in this profoundly important essay https://www.pdrboston.org/oppressors-need-bogeyman-enemies
Interesting points. I think Trump will be selected only if the US economy is fixin to collapse. US forces in the Western Pacific, South China Sea (etc) are fixing to get punched in the snatch by hypersonics launched by China/North Korea/Russia/Viet Nam (?).
The true defeat of the US, per Economics & Empires (plus common sense) will be by the rise of BRICS, SCO, BRI, &c. Last week's meeting in Astania and October's BRICS summit should provide clues/timeliness for the alternative economy.
It seems ridiculous, on the face of it, that launching a few drones is matter matter jack diddly against the Russian multi-layered AD defenses. Their setup is not the THAAD or Patriot eggshell method used by the West.
Furthermore, it seems beyond idiocy to train up the Russian military on Western gear. Yes, these weapons can be used to test and learn better tactics against Russian AD, but the reverse is also true.
And more importantly - we already know who has the logistics, innovation and focus advantage in military industrial matters. Unlike with the super expensive Patriot system, I would not be surprised if Russian AD has the capacity and cost ratios to just shoot down everything and sort out the wreckage later regardless of whether their newest technology can distinguish decoy from target.
It's becoming more and more obvious that this "war" and many other current and recent events have as their primary function the destruction of Capital. See
Superb technical yet readable piece. Let's hope the ukronazis get wiped out soon.
weary realistic analisis .
thank you
Awesome read, thanks Mike! I agree, Russian A/D will eventually generate a profile for these decoys (newer version, the better). I'd suspect the airfields may be hit after a couple of sorties to learn their profiles, then ka-blam-o. I could see ground-based A/D attacking sorties as a first wave, followed by R-37s immediately thereafter.
Also: most of the wűnderwaffen has been old/obsolete weapon platforms. In your opinion: how do you anticipate the latest versions to fare against Russian assets? NATO has a larger compliment of aeroplanes, but lessons learned thus far, plus lessons learned from the brave Serbs (Nighthawk shoot down for the uninitiated) should tilt the playing field against NATO.
Cheers from Lincoln!
The received wisdom, common myth, is that for every incoming target, the Ukrainians' air defence fires two missiles. If Russian air defence does the same, will not the first missile take out the towed drone or single decoy, and the second remove the aircraft carrying them? Does this actually happen?
NATO has a limited number of pilots and as if not more importantly trained ground crews, the same applies for all of the systems frankly which are not operable by the Ukrainians.
Each system (patriot, NASRAM, F16 etc) destroyed removes those trained personnel - as do ground attacks where they are bilited.
Given the consensus seems to be that the Ukraine at the very best had enough time to train a limited number (we're talking about the 6 months prior to the Kharkov offensive when they for the only time had a 6 month window to send specialists abroad to train on these systems) then the amount of these remaining trained to a decent standard crews of Ukrainian origin is likely almost now zero net.
Meaning we've seen many either sheep dipped current NATO personnel or more like "reservists' on these systems operating them within the Ukraine for the past year or more in greater numbers as the systems and crews are destroyed and new ones sent
Ultimately this is degrading severely NATO capabilities in terms of its own highly skilled system operators and crews, even if these are 'just' reservists then it means should NATO decide to go onto a war footing they are gonna quickly be in the same situation as the Ukraine are, simply not enough people trained to operate and maintain the systems - especially if the number of systems increases greatly (the guys they'd normally use to meet this requirement will be the same reservists already dead in the Ukraine)
Over time for the Ukraine this can only mean one thing, the systems they are given will have to be manned by guys with minimal training in operating these systems effectively, I believe we hsve stsrted to see this skresdy the past 3 months.
It's a strong reason I believe we are seeing more and more strikes against previously hard to hit targets - notably the HIMARS systems - the guys now using them are simply unable to utilise the system correctly - fire relocate hide under an AA shield, instead due to inexperienced they are reacting much slower and also bring exposed in the open.
Thoughts?
> but to do anything even remotely important, quantities must be counted in the hundreds.
Yeah, this is the essential point.
May I suggest to change the link in the first reference to the following?
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
(A link to a locally stored file is pretty useless!)
Thank you for the detailed explanations, Mike.
biden is not going to get any conservative riled up and enthusiastic about the ruling class' coming planned attack on china in the way trump is going to. It seems very obvious that the NeoCon ruling class need trump in the white house before they can launch their planned attack on china. They need him to be at the helm to lead americans into the attack because conservatives (who are the backbone of the billionaire's global execution force, known as the american military) are not going to be very enthused to go across the ocean to murder for the ruling class if Biden or Newsom tells them to do so, but if it's trump, their own righteous billioanire messiah, leading the charge and telling them to go kill those evil commies/globalists/leftists (for "freedom and morality", of course) then his well-intentioned but heavily-propagamdized and deceived MAGA/Qanon followers will be extremely enthusiastic to do the billionaire's bidding, with a gusto of extremely powerful religious-nationalistic passion in their support for the troops and the president. It will be the just like the psychosis of religious nationslist war frenzy after 9/11 all over again. The ruling class absolutely must have trump (and not biden or newsom) leading americans into their planned attack.
There is also going to be a lot of bible waving, while Anti-Christ trump and his God-ignorant deep-state GOP war profiteers will frequently use the words "jesus" and "holy war" and "the last battle of good vs evil", which will send their well-intentioned but thoroughly deceived conservative base into a gushing orgasm, a nationalist-religious feeding frenzy and extreme enthusiasm for the ruling class' war plans.
That's why they need trump (and not biden) in office to lead the planned attack. Trump and his deep state zionist war-profiteering billionaires will enter the white house in january, and then of course they'll need to set the stage with a few months of very intense 24/7 wall-to-wall propagaganda in the billionaire's disinformation media about the "evil aggression of china" (which doesn't have a single military base outside its territory, while the american empire has about 900 military bases encircling the entire globe, in addition to dozens of warships colonizing every ocean on the face of the globe, as well as at least 13 extra-judicial torture camps, where american conservative merceneries hold kidnapped human beings in captivity for years without trial or accusation and torture them, because.. "freedom and moral values").
After a few months of hammering into americans' head nonstop 24/7 how china is an evil aggressor and the new hitler, then you'll have the conveniently-timed decleration of independence by american-paid separatists in taiwan, which china will obviously reject, and the stage will be set for the "righteous" attack (for "freedom and moral values" of course), possibly in the spring/summer of 2025. And just like after 9/11, the majority of heavily-propagandized americans will be fully in support of it (including 99% of well-intentioned but thoroughly deceived conservatives who will be in the mode of holy-war end-times jesus-is-coming-back, and fully united behind their mass-murdering psychologically-undeveloped narcissist infantile pro-billionaire pro-Wall St anti-Christ God-ignorant zionist messiah leading the charge against 'the evil commie aggression'.
So we have about a year, give or take, before they pull the trigger, before they put all the pieces of the puzzle together (1. trump in office and leading the charge, 2. months of very intense 24/7 wall-to-wall nationalist propaganda to turn china into a literal hitler, an unbearable scary evil monster who wants to hurt americans in any way it can, so we just must take down this hitler-like monster first before they take "us" down 3. taiwan declaration of independence. 4. American military bases in the countries surrounding china completed and ready to launch misslies and war planes) and pull the trigger.
PS. If the billionaire ruling class cannot generate strong public support for their planned attack, despite their months of 24/7 wall-to-wall intense propaganda campaign to turn china into a hitler and evil aggressor in the eyes of americans, then there is also the possibility that they'll pull another 9/11 sort of false flag event, to get everyone into a state of traumatic shock, fear, anger and hatred, and fully on board with their attack plans..
See https://johnspritzler.substack.com/p/the-billionaire-class-is-no-more
And https://caityjohnstone.medium.com/trump-minus-narrative-equals-bushbama-84a363947536
As for why the billionaire ruling class are going to attack china soon - after trump and his deep-state zionist billionaire war-profiteers enter the white house in January - see this profound essay (which includes full citations) which IMHO is a must read for every human on the planet who wishes to understand exactly how we are being played https://www.pdrboston.org/oppressors-need-bogeyman-enemies
PPS. Two more pieces of the puzzle (which i didn’t mention above) that the billionaire ruling class put together to get everything ready for the attack in 2025, is that they had the leaders in the countries surrounding china replaced, from those not committed to china-hostility and the planned attack, into puppets who do exactly as the empire tells them, ramp up anti-china hostility and open their country to american military bases in preparation for the attack.
Two examples of this are in Japan and the philippines. In Japan they assasinated prime minister Abe, who refused to commit to their attack plans on china, and replaced him with their ultra-nationalist puppet, Kishida, who changed japan’s constitution to allow for greater militarization of society, removed constitutional limits on military spending, filled his cabinet with pro-american pro-zionist NeoCons, and approved massive american military build up in Japan's southern okinawan islands (literally minutes of flight/missle distance from the chinese mainland), in preparation for the attack. And in the philippines, where they replaced Duerte (who was against the war plans on china and sought greater cooperation) with their well-paid puppet Marcos, who gave the american war machine the northen Luzon island (the closest philipino island to china) to build several military bases in preparation for the attack, and who drastically changed course from Duerte and immediately started promoting china hatred in the philippines, and constantly sends the philippines navy into idiotic skirmishes with chinese boats in the south china sea in order to promote nationalist hostility towards china in the philippines, in preparation for the attack. He and his pay-masters in the american ruling class are doing that becasue they are playing on the people the trick that ruling class oppressors always play on us. Again, this trick is described in detail in this profoundly important essay https://www.pdrboston.org/oppressors-need-bogeyman-enemies
Interesting points. I think Trump will be selected only if the US economy is fixin to collapse. US forces in the Western Pacific, South China Sea (etc) are fixing to get punched in the snatch by hypersonics launched by China/North Korea/Russia/Viet Nam (?).
The true defeat of the US, per Economics & Empires (plus common sense) will be by the rise of BRICS, SCO, BRI, &c. Last week's meeting in Astania and October's BRICS summit should provide clues/timeliness for the alternative economy.
Cheers, brother!
Enjoy extra credit for employing the phrase, "punched in the snatch".
Thanks for that. Great work.
Thank you for an excellent writeup.
It seems ridiculous, on the face of it, that launching a few drones is matter matter jack diddly against the Russian multi-layered AD defenses. Their setup is not the THAAD or Patriot eggshell method used by the West.
Furthermore, it seems beyond idiocy to train up the Russian military on Western gear. Yes, these weapons can be used to test and learn better tactics against Russian AD, but the reverse is also true.
And more importantly - we already know who has the logistics, innovation and focus advantage in military industrial matters. Unlike with the super expensive Patriot system, I would not be surprised if Russian AD has the capacity and cost ratios to just shoot down everything and sort out the wreckage later regardless of whether their newest technology can distinguish decoy from target.
It's becoming more and more obvious that this "war" and many other current and recent events have as their primary function the destruction of Capital. See
https://peterwebster.substack.com/p/the-1-may-have-a-plan