I don't think the training of existing fighter pilots is the bottleneck. There will be no dog fighting and only few weapons will be available. Just a missile truck. Existing pilots with experience in this war will be in terms of tactics and operation way ahead of their NATO trainers, anyway. Well, they may be kicked out, when they lack subservience and humbleness. C.W. Lemoine, a former F-16 pilot (a normal one, not a test pilots), argued in a recent video, the retraining towards F-16 for an experienced pilot may need 2-3 months. I don't buy into the claim, that UA pilots, at least those up to 35 yo, don't speak English. UA is NATO associated since years and EN is aviation language anyway. A bigger problem would exist if there aren't ready to retrain pilots left - then you have to begin from scratch (medical tests, prop, jet trainer). And it seems someone is hunting for pilots. 3 guys "crashing in MiG-29", that later morphed into L-39 (what the heck are two majors and one captain doing in L-39?), 6 "crashing in a Mi-8".
A bigger problem may exist with technicians, and here you need much more of them than few pilots, with serious experience and training. Years. Yea, these guy have to be imported. May be some gender quotas?
Very interesting though I am not sure Ukraine gets as far as training in October. All the media is talking about Russia as a distraction, fat lady is getting ready to sing.
Omg! Here you go again! Russian leadership and public lack the stomach? I’m sure you’re not getting one bit of your information from any Russian sources or any direct understanding or study of Russian social or political landscape! And the collective West believed and seriously hoped that Russia was weak, couldn’t take it, and was going to fold soon after February 2022! And look what a delusion that turned out to be! Russia will persevere in this to the very end even if that means unleashing full nuclear Armageddon! You apparently have ZERO understanding of Russia or its leaders!
Russia has systematically destroyed three Ukrainian armies already. They don’t need to launch an offensive to impress those ignorant and illiterate in military matters. You must be judging this whole affair from the viewpoint of a GI JOE video game! Continue & Enjoy😂
Obviously you’re too dumb to understand this is not a war where gaining territory is the prime goal, but the annihilation of the enemy forces. And you also seem locked in your delusional beliefs to have noticed 40k Ukrainian military personnel killed in the last two months. You must be on the same drugs as Zelenskyy! 😂😂
What it is intended to do is to create an excuse/opportunity in NATO air forces for new aircraft orders for Lockheed Martin by clearing out existing end-of-life NATO inventories and dumping them on places like Ukraine. F16s for Ukraine are to all intents and purposes irrelevant to the conduct and outcome of the war. The bankers and arms manufacturers are, as usual, raking in huge profits, some of which gets skimmed off into political "contributions" in all the NATO capitals. You only have to look at all the new McMansions appearing in the suburbs of DC to see just how big the spoils of war, death and misery in Ukraine are.
Russian missiles ARE and HAVE BEEN soaked on NATO targets. Who do you think has been arming Ukraine? Ukie-Nazi regime and its military would not have lasted even three months without NATO supplies and assistance from day one of this war, including satellites, logistics, high tech coordination, military intelligence and planning. This has been a war against NATO only with Ukrainian meat as canon fodder.
And no worries, Russians have tripled their production of missiles and other hardware and will have plenty for all the rest of overhyped, overrated, and outrageously costly NATO military equipment.
Lol! Sounds like you can’t distinguish between NATO propaganda and reality! NATO sees this as a win-win? Yeah, according to the same sources that have been telling you repeatedly that Ukraine is winning all along!
I’m sure Russian fighter jet pilots are salivating and cannot wait to get a few nice practice rounds in a relatively circumscribed environment to knock out NATO aircraft, especially by unleashing their long range missiles on any hapless suicidal fools that get close enough in these soon to be junk or burning scrap F-16s. I bet there will be competition among Russian pilots on who can score the highest number of “kills”!
Good article. a few layman's ideas 1/ Let's say that 12 F-16s comes. They will be serviced before transfer to UKR so they will be able to fly 200 hours until the first regular check or more than 100 sorties. That probably goes well beyond their ability to survive in skies so maintenance will be of lesser issue. Pilots will be bigger issue as it will take just few months to prepare next squadron of new jests. 2/ If these planes are used to shoot down RUS cruise missiles they do not have to get into direct fight with Su-35s and they will be less exposed to S-400 missiles. Obviously 1/2 of UKR will be still open to RUS crusie missiles in that scenario. Targeting of crusie missiles - data from US satellites and AWACS? 3/ Can F-16s carry Storm Shadow or Taurus? If yes, they will just replace Su-24 and not many skills are needed of pilots. If not UKR will have to add Mirage 2000 which will make UKR life much more complicated.
Don't be so sure re that. Javelins were supplied with dead battery packs, and many other weapons were rusty unmaintained junk. The main reason the west is supplying these weapons is to offload mothballed and soon to be obsolete weapons. And then US coffers will be filled with cash from new shit being ordered.
Agreed. For the reasons stated in the article, this is a one-way-ticket , so peacetime maintenance philosophy will be discarded.
The challenge, from the point of view of Ukraine's sponsors, is to find a mission in which the F-16 destroys something worthy in the small number of missions it is expected to fly.
I was speculating, that the F-16 would be well suited for an anti-helicopter mission. At least on paper, NATO must be tempted by the possibility of trading the aging F-16 airframes in exchange for Ka-52 or Mi-28 ? Does the author have any thoughts on that?
But how then Ukraine manage to use and conceal Su-24 that are used for Storm Shadow missile attack? (If Russia see fighter jets as soon as they take off?)
I don't see much evidence that any airframe is safe with the amount of ISR and air-interdiction in theatre. Fighters increasingly look like little more than expensive targets.
Add in the logistical challenges of maintenance and the low probability of "hiding" the jets themselves, let alone the associated runways and repair sites, and their overall battlefield impact looks to be marginal at best.
My suspicion is that, as with the much ballyhooed Western tanks whose actual performance has left much to be desired, the whole F-16 saga is meant to distract from the very real infantry and artillery war of attrition that continues to rage in the Donbas.
“Based on this, it is highly likely that the much-prized Western planes will accomplish nothing more than pure PR stunts and attempts to boost morale. The outcome of the war can’t be changed with just a handful of birds.”
All the technical information was interesting, but it would’ve sufficed to start with the above sentence for a purposeful reading of only the gist of it! 😀
Nice overview. Thanks.
I don't think the training of existing fighter pilots is the bottleneck. There will be no dog fighting and only few weapons will be available. Just a missile truck. Existing pilots with experience in this war will be in terms of tactics and operation way ahead of their NATO trainers, anyway. Well, they may be kicked out, when they lack subservience and humbleness. C.W. Lemoine, a former F-16 pilot (a normal one, not a test pilots), argued in a recent video, the retraining towards F-16 for an experienced pilot may need 2-3 months. I don't buy into the claim, that UA pilots, at least those up to 35 yo, don't speak English. UA is NATO associated since years and EN is aviation language anyway. A bigger problem would exist if there aren't ready to retrain pilots left - then you have to begin from scratch (medical tests, prop, jet trainer). And it seems someone is hunting for pilots. 3 guys "crashing in MiG-29", that later morphed into L-39 (what the heck are two majors and one captain doing in L-39?), 6 "crashing in a Mi-8".
A bigger problem may exist with technicians, and here you need much more of them than few pilots, with serious experience and training. Years. Yea, these guy have to be imported. May be some gender quotas?
Thorough demonstration of Game Changer futility (again)!
Great Article 👍🏼
Thank you!
Very interesting though I am not sure Ukraine gets as far as training in October. All the media is talking about Russia as a distraction, fat lady is getting ready to sing.
Don't kid yourself.
Unfortunately, the Russian leadership and public lack the stomach and the West is spoiling for escalation.
Omg! Here you go again! Russian leadership and public lack the stomach? I’m sure you’re not getting one bit of your information from any Russian sources or any direct understanding or study of Russian social or political landscape! And the collective West believed and seriously hoped that Russia was weak, couldn’t take it, and was going to fold soon after February 2022! And look what a delusion that turned out to be! Russia will persevere in this to the very end even if that means unleashing full nuclear Armageddon! You apparently have ZERO understanding of Russia or its leaders!
Let's see when Russia actually launches an offensive worthy of the name.
And I've spent more time in Russia than most here.
Russia has systematically destroyed three Ukrainian armies already. They don’t need to launch an offensive to impress those ignorant and illiterate in military matters. You must be judging this whole affair from the viewpoint of a GI JOE video game! Continue & Enjoy😂
No war ended with the winning side on the defensive.
Obviously you’re too dumb to understand this is not a war where gaining territory is the prime goal, but the annihilation of the enemy forces. And you also seem locked in your delusional beliefs to have noticed 40k Ukrainian military personnel killed in the last two months. You must be on the same drugs as Zelenskyy! 😂😂
The F-16 will do exactly what it is intended to do:
1. Soak up Russian missiles that could be used on NATO or (horrors!) US warplanes.
2. Keep Ukraine fighting and keep Ukraine hoping for more.
3. Increase the sunk cost of the war and thus make it that much harder to de-escalate.
What it is intended to do is to create an excuse/opportunity in NATO air forces for new aircraft orders for Lockheed Martin by clearing out existing end-of-life NATO inventories and dumping them on places like Ukraine. F16s for Ukraine are to all intents and purposes irrelevant to the conduct and outcome of the war. The bankers and arms manufacturers are, as usual, raking in huge profits, some of which gets skimmed off into political "contributions" in all the NATO capitals. You only have to look at all the new McMansions appearing in the suburbs of DC to see just how big the spoils of war, death and misery in Ukraine are.
Russian missiles ARE and HAVE BEEN soaked on NATO targets. Who do you think has been arming Ukraine? Ukie-Nazi regime and its military would not have lasted even three months without NATO supplies and assistance from day one of this war, including satellites, logistics, high tech coordination, military intelligence and planning. This has been a war against NATO only with Ukrainian meat as canon fodder.
And no worries, Russians have tripled their production of missiles and other hardware and will have plenty for all the rest of overhyped, overrated, and outrageously costly NATO military equipment.
Except those Russian missiles are not, for the most part killing NATO personnel..
NATO see this as a win-win.
Lol! Sounds like you can’t distinguish between NATO propaganda and reality! NATO sees this as a win-win? Yeah, according to the same sources that have been telling you repeatedly that Ukraine is winning all along!
What, you think that most of the people getting killed are NATO?
No they are better than NATO personnel! NATO fighting directly couldn’t even beat the Taliban.
Thanks for making more ignorant comments! 😂😂
All of which is irrelevant to thepoint, not to mention argument by unfalsifable assertion.
I’m sure Russian fighter jet pilots are salivating and cannot wait to get a few nice practice rounds in a relatively circumscribed environment to knock out NATO aircraft, especially by unleashing their long range missiles on any hapless suicidal fools that get close enough in these soon to be junk or burning scrap F-16s. I bet there will be competition among Russian pilots on who can score the highest number of “kills”!
Good article. a few layman's ideas 1/ Let's say that 12 F-16s comes. They will be serviced before transfer to UKR so they will be able to fly 200 hours until the first regular check or more than 100 sorties. That probably goes well beyond their ability to survive in skies so maintenance will be of lesser issue. Pilots will be bigger issue as it will take just few months to prepare next squadron of new jests. 2/ If these planes are used to shoot down RUS cruise missiles they do not have to get into direct fight with Su-35s and they will be less exposed to S-400 missiles. Obviously 1/2 of UKR will be still open to RUS crusie missiles in that scenario. Targeting of crusie missiles - data from US satellites and AWACS? 3/ Can F-16s carry Storm Shadow or Taurus? If yes, they will just replace Su-24 and not many skills are needed of pilots. If not UKR will have to add Mirage 2000 which will make UKR life much more complicated.
"They will be serviced before transfer to UKR"
Don't be so sure re that. Javelins were supplied with dead battery packs, and many other weapons were rusty unmaintained junk. The main reason the west is supplying these weapons is to offload mothballed and soon to be obsolete weapons. And then US coffers will be filled with cash from new shit being ordered.
Agreed. For the reasons stated in the article, this is a one-way-ticket , so peacetime maintenance philosophy will be discarded.
The challenge, from the point of view of Ukraine's sponsors, is to find a mission in which the F-16 destroys something worthy in the small number of missions it is expected to fly.
Thank you for the extensive and detailed analysis, Mike.
You are welcome
Any mission they accept will be a Kamikazi mission.
Great article.
I was speculating, that the F-16 would be well suited for an anti-helicopter mission. At least on paper, NATO must be tempted by the possibility of trading the aging F-16 airframes in exchange for Ka-52 or Mi-28 ? Does the author have any thoughts on that?
Thanks!
But how then Ukraine manage to use and conceal Su-24 that are used for Storm Shadow missile attack? (If Russia see fighter jets as soon as they take off?)
I don't see much evidence that any airframe is safe with the amount of ISR and air-interdiction in theatre. Fighters increasingly look like little more than expensive targets.
Add in the logistical challenges of maintenance and the low probability of "hiding" the jets themselves, let alone the associated runways and repair sites, and their overall battlefield impact looks to be marginal at best.
My suspicion is that, as with the much ballyhooed Western tanks whose actual performance has left much to be desired, the whole F-16 saga is meant to distract from the very real infantry and artillery war of attrition that continues to rage in the Donbas.
Very informative read, thank you.
“Based on this, it is highly likely that the much-prized Western planes will accomplish nothing more than pure PR stunts and attempts to boost morale. The outcome of the war can’t be changed with just a handful of birds.”
All the technical information was interesting, but it would’ve sufficed to start with the above sentence for a purposeful reading of only the gist of it! 😀
Yes Sir Mike👍🏼