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This will be a quick update.
The rule of thumb to wait 48 hours before reaching any conclusions, when something major happens, was right again. We have now more clarity in a broader sense. Nevertheless, I consider that it was the right thing to do to conduct that public brainstorming with you all. And I enjoyed it. Thank you again.
When I wrote yesterday my article (it took me 3 hours) the news came out that a deal has been reached between Prigozhin and President Lukashenko of Belarus. I do not want to speculate too much about that deal. Yes, there are circulating suggestions what the detail entails. But we can be sure, whatever information reaches the surface, it is only for the public. We will need to wait some time (days/weeks) to see the impact on the ground.
Bottom line is: Prigozhin goes to exile to Belarus with some of the Wagner fighters. Most Wagner fighters will be disarmed, interrogated and if they did not commit any major crime, incorporated into the Russian army. The march on Moscow is over.
It turns out that the fourth theory could be what we are witnessing. The “Sacrifice” scenario. Prigozhin seems to have turned Wagner in the direction of Moscow and sacrificed either his name or his life (it remains to be seen) for whatever is to come next. Also, as I wrote, either planned (voluntarily) or unplanned (the “He screwed up” scenario).
He could have done that on the behalf of one of the following three parties:
The West (CIA/MI6)
This would imply that Prigozhin was recruited by the West and activated to destroy/interrupt the supply chain and chain of command for the defensive battle in Zaporozhe.
Here we have two sub scenarios:
He genuinely was recruited and screwed up to achieve the goals of CIA/MI6.
He was contacted by the CIA/MI6, contacted his superiors in GRU and a strategy was designed to ruse the West. This scenario would foresee, that the West would have planned with a collapse of the Russia supply lines yesterday and therefore would launch a large-scale assault. Russia in turned had foreseen this, planned accordingly and staged large troop movements to Ukraine’s north, for whatever reason.
A Russian intelligence service (GRU most likely, for military activities)
Here, I also see two sub scenarios:
Essentially, the same story as the second point in the first scenario. Only, without foreign interference. Maybe, with further domestical goals, such as spy hunts, harsher laws etc.
Here we come to Sun Tzu again and his “Chapter 13”. Prigozhin(for real or as a “honey pot”), and maybe several more officials could have planned a real coup. Because of dissatisfaction with the SMO approach. And the GRU monitored it all the time and only waited for it to kick off. Everything has been ended within a day, because the GRU had plenty time to collect all information. In this scenario, the GRU waited to collect and find as much traitors within the own ranks as well as foreign agents as possible. When it started, all parties involved showed their faces and conducted crimes of treason. The cases can be made. All were caught within a day. Traitors/Conspirators within the:
Foreign agents all across the country
There could also be some military objectives in this sub-scenario. But I focused on the more important issues.
Prigozhin simply lost his mind
As described in my former article, Prigozhin simply could have lost his nerves and did the wrong decision. And he realized in time that he screwed up and ended the process.
Which scenario is now the most likely? Again, this is still to early to come to any conclusions. We are still in the “public brainstorming” phase. Please, do not consider this article as any kind of conclusion or what have you. I will write a proper analysis in a month or so, when everything is clear.
But, for the time being I think that we have a mix of several of the abovementioned scenarios. Moreover, I think that the main scenario two (Russian military intelligence) and sub scenario two (traitor hunt) could be the base scenario. Of course, this scenario could utilize the advantages of several of the other scenarios with respect to military movements.
Well, enough brainstormed. This was my last public brainstorming with regards to this topic. Since things calmed down, I will now finally enjoy what is left of my weekend with my family 😊There won’t be any further brainstorming article for this topic.
I’d like to leave you with some analysis of people that I respect a lot:
Moreover, he talked in his podcast about it.
Scott Ritter is a fantastic analyst of all kinds of military and intelligence topics. He explained with Judge Napolitano the CIA/MI6 scenario here:
One first conclusion is possible now. Whatever happened, one consequence is clear. A consolidation in Russia. A united Russia. And with a little cynicism… A purged Russia. (Assessing the reality is not equal to endorse it).
One last thought. If Prigozhin really has gone rouge or cooperated with the CIA/MI6/GUR we will know it within the next days/weeks if he has an incident in Belarus or suddenly decides to commit suicide. (Remember my last article… Hang the traitor). If not, then the other scenarios (GRU) are likely. This is why I now try to get a distance to the topic for some days/weeks to be able to asses a clearer picture after some time.
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