I have a different decision tree just wanted to share it
1. Real (Prigozhin really did it)
A. GRU Has Pre-Knowledge
B. GRU Has NO Pre-Knowledge
2. Maskirovka (Deception w/ Prigozhin & GRU)
A. With CIA/MI6 Involvement
B. With NO CIA/MI6 Involvement
I don’t break out 1. with/without foreign interference because it only changes the severity but not the kind of crime - still treason.
For each we need to know Why?
For 1A & 2: Whether it was Maskirovka or Real with Pre-knowledge, what did GRU want to achieve
- Ferret out traitors?
- Move troops?
- Give Putin more powers?
For 1: What did Prigozhin think he was going to achieve?
- Overthrow Shoigu & Gerasimov?
- Overthrow Putin?
- Nothing in particular? (i.e. he was just “winging” it/lost his mind)
For 1A & 2, We also need to answer these questions (and some answers I can come up with)
- What did Russia/Putin gain?
- First and Third are a possibility in the goals above. Second didn’t happen and is a very short term gain negated by western ISR very quickly
- What did they lose?
- Prestige on the international stage and/or diminished trust
- Showing how they deal with a coup or insurrection
- What were the risks?
- Could have turned serious
- More bloodshed
For 2, same gain/loss/risks can be done but from Prigozhin’s point of view. How much you think he is motivated by patriotism vs money vs ego will drive it.
I’ll leave out which of the branches I think more likely ... but you can probably guess from my comments on the previous article 😉
If you have such a visualisation upload it somewhere and I'll attach it to my article and referencing you :)) Just write me here the adress where I can download it.
But only if you have it... no need to make that effort for me.
I’m going to be traveling next week but it’s no problem at all to make one for you when I get back.
I’ll also try to explore what could Prigozhin’s motivations and his gain/loss/risk matrix looks like, although I’m positive that by now it’s clear there is only option: 1B - Real and GRU/Putin did not know (or knew too late).
Thank You again, Aleks I hope you got to spend time with your family, but I doubt it.
We had a lot of driving to pick up our older son after a trip,then move him to another residence.
I said yesterday that the level of US intelligence from inside the Russian Defense Ministry by Jack Teixeira was very worrisome for Russia, very accurate.
It meant there were high level traitors.
Was Prigozhin that traitor, or did they work for him, or maybe manipulate him?
Did forces within the GRU manipulate Prigozhin? Did they do so for Russian counter-intelligence efforts, or as agents of the British, Americans and certain oligarchs?
The British would not present themselves to Prigozhin as British, but as Russian Oligarchic and GRU agents, right?
As you observe, time will tell. If nothing bad happens to Prigozhin, then he gets an academy-award, and some Russian medal for best actor in a reality-show.
At any rate, some traitors have been flushed out, and we can watch people in GRU, military and oligarchs over the next few weeks to see who goes "poof".
For scenarios 1A and 2, one of the additional things Russia can gain... the main prize in fact, is to appear weak so as to draw NATO out onto the field of battle. If Russia can induce NATO to send 50 more tanks - or 100 - and maybe some 20-40 airplanes, then Russia will be able to destroy that equipment in favourable conditions. And incrementally disarm NATO at the same time.
That said, not sure how much weaker they want the west to think they are. Beyond a certain point it just makes the west more insolent and take reckless risks. They already think Russia is a “gas station masquerading as a country”. 😂
Still, worth including in the goals for completeness.
The idea that Russia, which has been comically inept at P.R. since the start of the war, when it tried to manage P.R. at all, would undertake an incredibly elaborate months-long ruse, all to undermine the idea of its own stability and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, is way too much.
I think the most simple explanation is the correct.
Prigozhin attempted the coup. There is no matrioska here.
Behind it for sure were MI6/CIA, could be open or could be subtle.
Open would mean direct contact with Prigozhin promising him to recognize his leadership of Russian Federation, and maybe even of the annex Oblasts.
In exchange Prigozhin would recognize the rights of BlackRock and company over the assets in Donbass. As well as come back to the 90s regime in Russia.
This would be a full triumph for US, since they would achieve the dream end, a client regime in Russia again.
This would be supported by all pro western oligarch like Deripaska, Abramovich and company
The subtle way would mean to infiltrate agents in the inner circle of Prigozhin and fill him with grandeur deliriums about how he can lead Russia to an absolute triumph.
While I think option 1 is the most plausible. Option 2 should not be excluded, since is a constant pattern of MI6 through history.
How this failed?
Russian politician and intelectual elites understand very well that Shoigu/Gerasimov are not traitors/incompetent at all. That narrative is only believed by westerners and some uninformed civilians in Russia. (Who are the real incompetent/traitors¿ possibly the minister of finance and the russian bank)
Anyway, the coup counted with people supporting it and joining it. But all opposition voices to Putin unanimously supported Putin. Glazyev, the communist party, Strelkov, governors of the new regions…
Putin was also supported by his classical source of power in the Orthodox Church, all high rank militaras like Surovikin,the intelligence services and then the chechens
In this situation no one was brave to support the coup and it failed by itself. But it was a very real attemp. You can compare it with the 23F in Spain, when some military took the Parlament in Madrid but when the powers of the country spoke against the rebellion the rebellion vaned.
Why I don’t consider the matrioska/GRU option?
1 - None of the pro west oligarch has been purgued. What is the meaning of create this fake if you don’t exprópiate Rusal from Deripaska or the assets of Abramovich and then execute them. The obvious pro western people are in Finance and the central bank. They are still there as well as the oligarch. And the CTO that could have allowed to kill them is already lifted.
2 - The IL22 is too high price. Russia does not have so many of such planes. They are expensive, important and their crews need long years of training.
This was indeed a rebellion, that luckily didn’t encounter support. Lukashenko played a diplomatic role, giving prigozhin a exit.
This, indeed, showed a very strong and resistant Russian government although of course the western outlets try to sell weakness.
Therefore I expect Prigozhin to be killed or prosecuted judicially. Russian government says he will be pardoned but imho they simply lied. No government can allow a person that try a coup to leave just like that.
Maybe they will try to keep the reputation of Prigozhin and not to destroy it (that is the Putin style, avoid any kind of internal division or corruption) but he will disappear
As a personal note I was reading Boris Godunov from Pushkin the days before the coup and the similarities with the faked Demetrio in the Trouble Times are amazing.
Some obvious traitors working with the west pretending to be the recipient of the real Russian soul and legitimacy.
Your version of events is probably what most likely happened but who knows. I think they will interrogate Prigozhin thoroughly to come to the bottom of what went on. The claim by Western MSM that the US government had knowledge of this in advance would implicate Western Intelligence, if they are telling the truth we which we all know is a long shot.
However, I don't think Prigo will be murdered and he shouldn't be. He and Wagner have gained hero status in the Battle of Bakhmut and would gain martyr status by his troops and a substantial part of the Russian population. Also Putin is building Russian soft power and extrajudicial killings negatively effect that development. He will be on a short leash and the strict surveillance of the FSB or shipped off to handle some Wagner detachment in Africa. That are my two cents.
Great references. Thank you! I had to listen to Andrei twice. The 2nd time on slow speed. Larry's a GEM! I'm totally flabbergasted and now don't know what to think. So much for giving the benefit of the doubt! Is it too much of a coincidence that the Pentagon just recently found that $6.5 Billion? And I saw the FSB recently made several take downs of some terrorists with dirty bomb kits and radioactive material. Still trying to take out the Nuclear Plant and/or part of the CIA coup strategy? They're capable of anything! Will we ever know, or will we have to wait for Nuremburg 2.0 at building "Q"? Feel bad for any Patriotic Wagner soldier who just had their name totally turned to ash.
To be honest I thought of the military maskirovka since yesterday morning, but I did not think about using this (fake?) coup also as a purge, to get rid of spies and double agents. :)
Don't miss Patrick Lancaster on YouTube. He actually got a statement from Prigozhin and the Russians treated it like a Party/Parade and they have a totally different OPIONION of the whole EVENT!!! 😂😂😂😂😂 "With Wagner "Coup" Leaving Russia (Exclusive Prigozhin) Special Report"
Another possibility is very unlikely but worth to mention: it's possible that the main objective was to relocate Wagner's columns on plain sight while pretending that the reason is some coup occuring in Russia. Very opportunistically, Wagner is now located near or within Belarus (and as far as I know none of it has been disarmed at all), right next to the Kiev region...
For this theory to be valid, the ROI should be deemed far greater that the sacrifices that were made (which already include human lives). What if the next Wagner move ("согласно плану" 😊) was a full fledged attack directed between the Kiev and Kharkov regions ?
AFAIK, Wagner is (light?) infantry and they won't make it without a combined arms backing. However, if the plan is to "escort" them to Belarus, then it's possible their "escort" is one or two combined-arms divisions, and it's further possible they all "get lost in the forest" and wind up in Ukraine... right next to Kharkhov. What an accident! xD
Indeed. That's purely speculative, I'm just wondering if it could be part of the next move. After all Prigozhin is not an idiot, I highly doubt that he would launch such adventurous operation "alone" and furthermore not be dealt with at the end of it.
I discount this. The number of Wagner going with Prigozhin is more like body guards. If they don’t sign with MoD they can’t fight so the majority will go back to the front.
Plus, this is very short term and neutralized by western ISR very quickly. So unless they launch it TODAY it won’t matter.
The Russians knew of this plot and shaped it to their advantage to flush out traitors.
A day or two earlier Russian security arrested many cells of trouble makers that were planning attacks etc.
Seeing as Mikhail (the treasonous jew rat) Khodorkovsky, according to Larry Johnson, opened a tg channel many months ago and it was dormant until just after the "coup" started, but was activated shortly after the "coup" started shows it was planned months ago.
Prig was playing a role, stringing MI6/CIA plotters along, with his seemingly unhinged behaviour of recent past.
Where is the proof of aircraft shot down? tg channel Fighter Bomber (has contacts in RuAF) posted the burning plane pics were a year old, then deleted, then posted they are current and real.
No media reports of pilot/crew deaths.
Prig and Wagner going to Belarus is a ruse to place them there for military reasons (a tripwire for Polish or Baltic deviousness).
Prigozhin ruing my weekend too, but Aleks in spanish I would say: "esto no tiene ni pies ni cabeza", (I wouldn't know how to proper translate that to english) this was too weird , no pre-requesit for anything actually, russia was kicking ass with both feet, prigozhin left with a high note after bakhmut, the whole circus with less than 6k troops, with only what they can carry, he was really careful inside the city, except for the aircraft(one of those called a tragic mistake), no one else suffer not even a papercut, (WTF) all the sudden Putin signed a lot of law some of which are basically the framework of wagner, and then everything is gone the same way it started, and the western press erase all the headline about burned nato crap, instead they are all chanting victory line about the last moments of Putin's reign, so weird
I think Prigozhyn is a larger than life, totally free of constraints and restraint kind of individual. Gloriously insane, and writing his own name into history, consciously or otherwise
Accordingly, I think it is a combination of losing his mind + outside influences, but mainly the former
Yes, a lot of theories about what happened now depend on what happens in the next weeks. If Prigozhin trips and accidentally falls out of a window, it was probably genuine treason. But if he doesn't... well... for me personally, maskirovka is now hovering between 50% and 60% likely. It bottomed out at below 5% yesterday but since recovered.
We'll see what happens in the future. It was very fun trying to figure out what was/is happening.
Two weeks ago, Putin met with war correspondents and Telegram bloggers - including Pegov of War Gonzo [speaking]. A part of that meeting was closed to the media.
In this older interview, Pegov tells Wagner Chief Prigozhin that the Ministry of Defense is not issuing him more ammo in the event of Wagner going rogue.
In this interview Pegov asks Prighozin if he intends to march on Moscow if the Russian Mod does not provide him with the requested ammunition.
Whatever the reason, the blood is in the water now, its red its so heavy. And the Sharks are fast and circling. This is a death blow, and irreversible damage has been done. Now NATO and the West have a test case of just how easy it is and how weak Russia truly was. Before there was still ambiguity, now its over, the West will double, triple, even quadruple down their efforts to collapse and break Russia apart. Worst of is the optics for Russia Allies. they now have a completely weak, ineffectual (they killed Russian Solders, and are free to do as they please, the State has no power to bring them to Justice) and a foolish partner with an uncertain future. Its terrible for Russian citizens too, would you join the Army if you can get killed defending your own Motherland by a crazy Warlord and yet he still gets all the glory and money? Why serve a country that wont support and provide for you? why give up your life?
In one move the fat asshole oligarch managed to deal a blow to Russia all of the West couldn't.
Well done, I'm sure Prigozhin will join the statues to Bandera in Kiev soon, maybe get a medal at the White House.
I'll bet you that's the main prize. Make the West think what you just wrote down. Throw them off balance, make them overextend. Make them send MUCH more armor, make them mobilize more people (hopefully of the neonazi persuasion), make them make ANOTHER offensive against well prepared defenses.
Sun Tzu, Chapter 1: "A military operation involves deception. Even though you are competent, appear to be incompetent. Though effective, appear to be ineffective." And also: "Use humility to make them haugthy" to which following comments are attached: by Mei Yaochen, "Give appearance of inferiority and weakness, to make them proud." and by Wang Xi, "Appear to be lowly and weak, so as to make them arrogant - then they will not worry about you, and you can attack them as they relax."
The BEST possible outcome of this Prigozhin thing is if in July NATO decides to double down and send their *essential* equipment to Ukraine. And why would NATO do that unless they expect Russia to be so weak as to fall over after a slight breeze? And how can Russia convince them they are that weak?
So youre suggesting this massive damage to Russia was intentional as part of a ''psyops''. That's delusional, NATO will focus at their original goal now, destabilizing and Balkanization of Russia internally. Piggy there proved the viability of that plan perfectly. Ukraine is only secondary to that goal.
There is no evidence of massive damage. Apparently everybody - even oligarchs - rallied around the flag. There's no evidence anybody died yesterday. A fuel depo got blown up. Flashy but big f--king deal. Outside Russia, BRICS don't seem perturbed. Or can you offer evidence to the contrary? The only ones who are going on about "weak Russia" and "downfall of Putin" in mass media are western propagandists.
Chopper pilots died, about 20 at least, one of the most vital asset of the Russian Forces, the heroes of the current Ukraine offensive. Wheres their Justice in Mr.Preggy Piggy's ''March of justice"? do you think other young men will be willing to sign up in the future when some private army for some Warlord will shoot you down for defending your homeland? That's insane, as is the suggestion its deliberate sacrifice for some shitty psyops.
and thats just the loss of men and equipment, not at all counting the bigger loss of face and legitimacy of the Russian state itself, the economic chaos, and the general toll to morale.
There is no evidence a single pilot died, not 20. All that exists is a photograph of burning wreckage - that might be a downed Mi-8, or it might not - somewhere in a field in the middle of nowhere. Strictly speaking, we don't even know if the photograph was taken in Russia or Ukraine. The remaining images either don't show downed craft at all or - in the case of the airplane with a wing shot off that was shared by Ukrainian officials on Twitter - the airplane was so high up in the sky it was blurry. Plus the image was taken from straight under the plane so the only background that exists is a clear blue sky. Try geolocating THAT, if you can. Also, remember Ghost of Kiev.
As for the rest - no evidence was offered. I'm not even sure how would one prove loss of face. Loss of legitimacy - maybe provable but there is evidence to the contrary. People seem to have rallied around the flag, as I mentioned. "Economic chaos" - I have no idea where this came from. It was Saturday. What economic chaos could there be? If you mean the country roads that got dug up, those holes can be filled with gravel in 5 minutes making the roads passable again. There was one bridge blown up but that's hardly going to cause "chaos". As for toll on morale, that needs to be proven as well.
Uhm, this ridiculous coup attempt did not even even an last entire day and was basically resolved peacefully when the afternoon rolled around. Contrary to the claims there is no hard evidence of shot down helicopters or dead soldiers. As for the attitude of the Russian people towards this, watch Patrick Lancaster's recent reporting which should tell you all you need to know. Meanwhile numerous Ukrainian assaults have been violently repelled and it's business as usual on the battlefields which is the steady incremental annihilation of the Ukrainian-staffed Nato Army.
Why are people still repeating that no people died? Pregozhin even stated he would pay to the families of the aircraft they shot down and that it was in ''error''. I'm not talking about some NAFO psyops report, these are from Russian sources, all freely available .
Evidence emerging yesterday (Sunday) in Washington and London proves that "the West was taken by surprise" by Yevgeney's "coup" is a lie. The piece above is much closer to what probably happened.
Don't forget by the way that Prigozhin is not that bright.
Daily Telegraph as usual was propaganda, and hopelessly wrong.
My understanding is that the Russian intelligence agencies established the Wagner Group. If this is true, I am surprised that I have not heard anyone speculate that this could have been a conflict between the intelligence agencies and the military. Any thoughts?
This entire incident is further evidence, if any were needed, thst Russia drastically miscalculated in not doing what was necessary to bring the war to a quick conclusion.
The longer it goes on, the more we will see events such as these and the harder it will be for Russia to escalate. Already, NATO smells blood. The failure of the counteroffensive is forgotten. It just needed a little more attention, more weapons money and training is the new narrative.
Allowing Russia's enemies to spin defeat into victory will forever be Prigozhin's legacy.
They'll do exactly what they are doing now, since, short of a nuclear attack, there is little or nothing Russia can do that so much as mildly inconveniences the decisionmakers in Washington.
Aleks ...
I have a different decision tree just wanted to share it
1. Real (Prigozhin really did it)
A. GRU Has Pre-Knowledge
B. GRU Has NO Pre-Knowledge
2. Maskirovka (Deception w/ Prigozhin & GRU)
A. With CIA/MI6 Involvement
B. With NO CIA/MI6 Involvement
I don’t break out 1. with/without foreign interference because it only changes the severity but not the kind of crime - still treason.
For each we need to know Why?
For 1A & 2: Whether it was Maskirovka or Real with Pre-knowledge, what did GRU want to achieve
- Ferret out traitors?
- Move troops?
- Give Putin more powers?
For 1: What did Prigozhin think he was going to achieve?
- Overthrow Shoigu & Gerasimov?
- Overthrow Putin?
- Nothing in particular? (i.e. he was just “winging” it/lost his mind)
For 1A & 2, We also need to answer these questions (and some answers I can come up with)
- What did Russia/Putin gain?
- First and Third are a possibility in the goals above. Second didn’t happen and is a very short term gain negated by western ISR very quickly
- What did they lose?
- Prestige on the international stage and/or diminished trust
- Showing how they deal with a coup or insurrection
- What were the risks?
- Could have turned serious
- More bloodshed
For 2, same gain/loss/risks can be done but from Prigozhin’s point of view. How much you think he is motivated by patriotism vs money vs ego will drive it.
I’ll leave out which of the branches I think more likely ... but you can probably guess from my comments on the previous article 😉
Great🤣
I wish I had that tree visualised😁
Good job.
There are no image attachments in Substack unfortunately. Otherwise I would have taken a picture (or made a graphic)
If you have such a visualisation upload it somewhere and I'll attach it to my article and referencing you :)) Just write me here the adress where I can download it.
But only if you have it... no need to make that effort for me.
I’m going to be traveling next week but it’s no problem at all to make one for you when I get back.
I’ll also try to explore what could Prigozhin’s motivations and his gain/loss/risk matrix looks like, although I’m positive that by now it’s clear there is only option: 1B - Real and GRU/Putin did not know (or knew too late).
Thank You again, Aleks I hope you got to spend time with your family, but I doubt it.
We had a lot of driving to pick up our older son after a trip,then move him to another residence.
I said yesterday that the level of US intelligence from inside the Russian Defense Ministry by Jack Teixeira was very worrisome for Russia, very accurate.
It meant there were high level traitors.
Was Prigozhin that traitor, or did they work for him, or maybe manipulate him?
Did forces within the GRU manipulate Prigozhin? Did they do so for Russian counter-intelligence efforts, or as agents of the British, Americans and certain oligarchs?
The British would not present themselves to Prigozhin as British, but as Russian Oligarchic and GRU agents, right?
As you observe, time will tell. If nothing bad happens to Prigozhin, then he gets an academy-award, and some Russian medal for best actor in a reality-show.
At any rate, some traitors have been flushed out, and we can watch people in GRU, military and oligarchs over the next few weeks to see who goes "poof".
For scenarios 1A and 2, one of the additional things Russia can gain... the main prize in fact, is to appear weak so as to draw NATO out onto the field of battle. If Russia can induce NATO to send 50 more tanks - or 100 - and maybe some 20-40 airplanes, then Russia will be able to destroy that equipment in favourable conditions. And incrementally disarm NATO at the same time.
More in the comment I wrote below, https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/united-russia/comment/17730853
Yes. Definitely valid goal.
That said, not sure how much weaker they want the west to think they are. Beyond a certain point it just makes the west more insolent and take reckless risks. They already think Russia is a “gas station masquerading as a country”. 😂
Still, worth including in the goals for completeness.
The idea that Russia, which has been comically inept at P.R. since the start of the war, when it tried to manage P.R. at all, would undertake an incredibly elaborate months-long ruse, all to undermine the idea of its own stability and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, is way too much.
Perhaps. But it makes sense to enumerate all possible events. We will see later what really happened.
You are right. We'll see. But if this is the plan, we need new plans or planners, better advisors or something.
I think the most simple explanation is the correct.
Prigozhin attempted the coup. There is no matrioska here.
Behind it for sure were MI6/CIA, could be open or could be subtle.
Open would mean direct contact with Prigozhin promising him to recognize his leadership of Russian Federation, and maybe even of the annex Oblasts.
In exchange Prigozhin would recognize the rights of BlackRock and company over the assets in Donbass. As well as come back to the 90s regime in Russia.
This would be a full triumph for US, since they would achieve the dream end, a client regime in Russia again.
This would be supported by all pro western oligarch like Deripaska, Abramovich and company
The subtle way would mean to infiltrate agents in the inner circle of Prigozhin and fill him with grandeur deliriums about how he can lead Russia to an absolute triumph.
While I think option 1 is the most plausible. Option 2 should not be excluded, since is a constant pattern of MI6 through history.
How this failed?
Russian politician and intelectual elites understand very well that Shoigu/Gerasimov are not traitors/incompetent at all. That narrative is only believed by westerners and some uninformed civilians in Russia. (Who are the real incompetent/traitors¿ possibly the minister of finance and the russian bank)
Anyway, the coup counted with people supporting it and joining it. But all opposition voices to Putin unanimously supported Putin. Glazyev, the communist party, Strelkov, governors of the new regions…
Putin was also supported by his classical source of power in the Orthodox Church, all high rank militaras like Surovikin,the intelligence services and then the chechens
In this situation no one was brave to support the coup and it failed by itself. But it was a very real attemp. You can compare it with the 23F in Spain, when some military took the Parlament in Madrid but when the powers of the country spoke against the rebellion the rebellion vaned.
Why I don’t consider the matrioska/GRU option?
1 - None of the pro west oligarch has been purgued. What is the meaning of create this fake if you don’t exprópiate Rusal from Deripaska or the assets of Abramovich and then execute them. The obvious pro western people are in Finance and the central bank. They are still there as well as the oligarch. And the CTO that could have allowed to kill them is already lifted.
2 - The IL22 is too high price. Russia does not have so many of such planes. They are expensive, important and their crews need long years of training.
This was indeed a rebellion, that luckily didn’t encounter support. Lukashenko played a diplomatic role, giving prigozhin a exit.
This, indeed, showed a very strong and resistant Russian government although of course the western outlets try to sell weakness.
Therefore I expect Prigozhin to be killed or prosecuted judicially. Russian government says he will be pardoned but imho they simply lied. No government can allow a person that try a coup to leave just like that.
Maybe they will try to keep the reputation of Prigozhin and not to destroy it (that is the Putin style, avoid any kind of internal division or corruption) but he will disappear
As a personal note I was reading Boris Godunov from Pushkin the days before the coup and the similarities with the faked Demetrio in the Trouble Times are amazing.
Some obvious traitors working with the west pretending to be the recipient of the real Russian soul and legitimacy.
Please forgive my grammar
Your version of events is probably what most likely happened but who knows. I think they will interrogate Prigozhin thoroughly to come to the bottom of what went on. The claim by Western MSM that the US government had knowledge of this in advance would implicate Western Intelligence, if they are telling the truth we which we all know is a long shot.
However, I don't think Prigo will be murdered and he shouldn't be. He and Wagner have gained hero status in the Battle of Bakhmut and would gain martyr status by his troops and a substantial part of the Russian population. Also Putin is building Russian soft power and extrajudicial killings negatively effect that development. He will be on a short leash and the strict surveillance of the FSB or shipped off to handle some Wagner detachment in Africa. That are my two cents.
Great references. Thank you! I had to listen to Andrei twice. The 2nd time on slow speed. Larry's a GEM! I'm totally flabbergasted and now don't know what to think. So much for giving the benefit of the doubt! Is it too much of a coincidence that the Pentagon just recently found that $6.5 Billion? And I saw the FSB recently made several take downs of some terrorists with dirty bomb kits and radioactive material. Still trying to take out the Nuclear Plant and/or part of the CIA coup strategy? They're capable of anything! Will we ever know, or will we have to wait for Nuremburg 2.0 at building "Q"? Feel bad for any Patriotic Wagner soldier who just had their name totally turned to ash.
To be honest I thought of the military maskirovka since yesterday morning, but I did not think about using this (fake?) coup also as a purge, to get rid of spies and double agents. :)
Don't miss Patrick Lancaster on YouTube. He actually got a statement from Prigozhin and the Russians treated it like a Party/Parade and they have a totally different OPIONION of the whole EVENT!!! 😂😂😂😂😂 "With Wagner "Coup" Leaving Russia (Exclusive Prigozhin) Special Report"
Another possibility is very unlikely but worth to mention: it's possible that the main objective was to relocate Wagner's columns on plain sight while pretending that the reason is some coup occuring in Russia. Very opportunistically, Wagner is now located near or within Belarus (and as far as I know none of it has been disarmed at all), right next to the Kiev region...
For this theory to be valid, the ROI should be deemed far greater that the sacrifices that were made (which already include human lives). What if the next Wagner move ("согласно плану" 😊) was a full fledged attack directed between the Kiev and Kharkov regions ?
AFAIK, Wagner is (light?) infantry and they won't make it without a combined arms backing. However, if the plan is to "escort" them to Belarus, then it's possible their "escort" is one or two combined-arms divisions, and it's further possible they all "get lost in the forest" and wind up in Ukraine... right next to Kharkhov. What an accident! xD
Indeed. That's purely speculative, I'm just wondering if it could be part of the next move. After all Prigozhin is not an idiot, I highly doubt that he would launch such adventurous operation "alone" and furthermore not be dealt with at the end of it.
I discount this. The number of Wagner going with Prigozhin is more like body guards. If they don’t sign with MoD they can’t fight so the majority will go back to the front.
Plus, this is very short term and neutralized by western ISR very quickly. So unless they launch it TODAY it won’t matter.
"US knew of Wagner coup plans in advance" – NYT
Perhaps many parties knew... but they simply didn't know what the opponents know... The classic dilemma situation :)
OK I'm putting my money on the following.
The Russians knew of this plot and shaped it to their advantage to flush out traitors.
A day or two earlier Russian security arrested many cells of trouble makers that were planning attacks etc.
Seeing as Mikhail (the treasonous jew rat) Khodorkovsky, according to Larry Johnson, opened a tg channel many months ago and it was dormant until just after the "coup" started, but was activated shortly after the "coup" started shows it was planned months ago.
Prig was playing a role, stringing MI6/CIA plotters along, with his seemingly unhinged behaviour of recent past.
Where is the proof of aircraft shot down? tg channel Fighter Bomber (has contacts in RuAF) posted the burning plane pics were a year old, then deleted, then posted they are current and real.
No media reports of pilot/crew deaths.
Prig and Wagner going to Belarus is a ruse to place them there for military reasons (a tripwire for Polish or Baltic deviousness).
I believe it was a master class in maskirovka.
Time will tell.
"The Russians knew of this plot and shaped it to their advantage to flush out traitors."
Where? Where are they flushing them out? To be free and clear in Belarus?
"Young Russian solders lost their lives,"
There is no documented proof of this.
I think the fact that at least 2 of Prigozhins Telegrams have been silent since speaks volumes.
Prigozhin ruing my weekend too, but Aleks in spanish I would say: "esto no tiene ni pies ni cabeza", (I wouldn't know how to proper translate that to english) this was too weird , no pre-requesit for anything actually, russia was kicking ass with both feet, prigozhin left with a high note after bakhmut, the whole circus with less than 6k troops, with only what they can carry, he was really careful inside the city, except for the aircraft(one of those called a tragic mistake), no one else suffer not even a papercut, (WTF) all the sudden Putin signed a lot of law some of which are basically the framework of wagner, and then everything is gone the same way it started, and the western press erase all the headline about burned nato crap, instead they are all chanting victory line about the last moments of Putin's reign, so weird
Love your substack. First comment
I think Prigozhyn is a larger than life, totally free of constraints and restraint kind of individual. Gloriously insane, and writing his own name into history, consciously or otherwise
Accordingly, I think it is a combination of losing his mind + outside influences, but mainly the former
Yes, a lot of theories about what happened now depend on what happens in the next weeks. If Prigozhin trips and accidentally falls out of a window, it was probably genuine treason. But if he doesn't... well... for me personally, maskirovka is now hovering between 50% and 60% likely. It bottomed out at below 5% yesterday but since recovered.
We'll see what happens in the future. It was very fun trying to figure out what was/is happening.
From Telegram channel:
https://t.me/inessas1992/4237
Two weeks ago, Putin met with war correspondents and Telegram bloggers - including Pegov of War Gonzo [speaking]. A part of that meeting was closed to the media.
In this older interview, Pegov tells Wagner Chief Prigozhin that the Ministry of Defense is not issuing him more ammo in the event of Wagner going rogue.
In this interview Pegov asks Prighozin if he intends to march on Moscow if the Russian Mod does not provide him with the requested ammunition.
Whatever the reason, the blood is in the water now, its red its so heavy. And the Sharks are fast and circling. This is a death blow, and irreversible damage has been done. Now NATO and the West have a test case of just how easy it is and how weak Russia truly was. Before there was still ambiguity, now its over, the West will double, triple, even quadruple down their efforts to collapse and break Russia apart. Worst of is the optics for Russia Allies. they now have a completely weak, ineffectual (they killed Russian Solders, and are free to do as they please, the State has no power to bring them to Justice) and a foolish partner with an uncertain future. Its terrible for Russian citizens too, would you join the Army if you can get killed defending your own Motherland by a crazy Warlord and yet he still gets all the glory and money? Why serve a country that wont support and provide for you? why give up your life?
In one move the fat asshole oligarch managed to deal a blow to Russia all of the West couldn't.
Well done, I'm sure Prigozhin will join the statues to Bandera in Kiev soon, maybe get a medal at the White House.
I'll bet you that's the main prize. Make the West think what you just wrote down. Throw them off balance, make them overextend. Make them send MUCH more armor, make them mobilize more people (hopefully of the neonazi persuasion), make them make ANOTHER offensive against well prepared defenses.
Sun Tzu, Chapter 1: "A military operation involves deception. Even though you are competent, appear to be incompetent. Though effective, appear to be ineffective." And also: "Use humility to make them haugthy" to which following comments are attached: by Mei Yaochen, "Give appearance of inferiority and weakness, to make them proud." and by Wang Xi, "Appear to be lowly and weak, so as to make them arrogant - then they will not worry about you, and you can attack them as they relax."
The BEST possible outcome of this Prigozhin thing is if in July NATO decides to double down and send their *essential* equipment to Ukraine. And why would NATO do that unless they expect Russia to be so weak as to fall over after a slight breeze? And how can Russia convince them they are that weak?
So youre suggesting this massive damage to Russia was intentional as part of a ''psyops''. That's delusional, NATO will focus at their original goal now, destabilizing and Balkanization of Russia internally. Piggy there proved the viability of that plan perfectly. Ukraine is only secondary to that goal.
There is no evidence of massive damage. Apparently everybody - even oligarchs - rallied around the flag. There's no evidence anybody died yesterday. A fuel depo got blown up. Flashy but big f--king deal. Outside Russia, BRICS don't seem perturbed. Or can you offer evidence to the contrary? The only ones who are going on about "weak Russia" and "downfall of Putin" in mass media are western propagandists.
Chopper pilots died, about 20 at least, one of the most vital asset of the Russian Forces, the heroes of the current Ukraine offensive. Wheres their Justice in Mr.Preggy Piggy's ''March of justice"? do you think other young men will be willing to sign up in the future when some private army for some Warlord will shoot you down for defending your homeland? That's insane, as is the suggestion its deliberate sacrifice for some shitty psyops.
and thats just the loss of men and equipment, not at all counting the bigger loss of face and legitimacy of the Russian state itself, the economic chaos, and the general toll to morale.
There is no evidence a single pilot died, not 20. All that exists is a photograph of burning wreckage - that might be a downed Mi-8, or it might not - somewhere in a field in the middle of nowhere. Strictly speaking, we don't even know if the photograph was taken in Russia or Ukraine. The remaining images either don't show downed craft at all or - in the case of the airplane with a wing shot off that was shared by Ukrainian officials on Twitter - the airplane was so high up in the sky it was blurry. Plus the image was taken from straight under the plane so the only background that exists is a clear blue sky. Try geolocating THAT, if you can. Also, remember Ghost of Kiev.
As for the rest - no evidence was offered. I'm not even sure how would one prove loss of face. Loss of legitimacy - maybe provable but there is evidence to the contrary. People seem to have rallied around the flag, as I mentioned. "Economic chaos" - I have no idea where this came from. It was Saturday. What economic chaos could there be? If you mean the country roads that got dug up, those holes can be filled with gravel in 5 minutes making the roads passable again. There was one bridge blown up but that's hardly going to cause "chaos". As for toll on morale, that needs to be proven as well.
No evidence of aircraft shot down at all.
Uhm, this ridiculous coup attempt did not even even an last entire day and was basically resolved peacefully when the afternoon rolled around. Contrary to the claims there is no hard evidence of shot down helicopters or dead soldiers. As for the attitude of the Russian people towards this, watch Patrick Lancaster's recent reporting which should tell you all you need to know. Meanwhile numerous Ukrainian assaults have been violently repelled and it's business as usual on the battlefields which is the steady incremental annihilation of the Ukrainian-staffed Nato Army.
Why are people still repeating that no people died? Pregozhin even stated he would pay to the families of the aircraft they shot down and that it was in ''error''. I'm not talking about some NAFO psyops report, these are from Russian sources, all freely available .
Evidence emerging yesterday (Sunday) in Washington and London proves that "the West was taken by surprise" by Yevgeney's "coup" is a lie. The piece above is much closer to what probably happened.
Don't forget by the way that Prigozhin is not that bright.
Daily Telegraph as usual was propaganda, and hopelessly wrong.
https://therealslog.com/2023/06/25/killing-putin-will-be-just-as-hard-as-killing-rasputin/
My understanding is that the Russian intelligence agencies established the Wagner Group. If this is true, I am surprised that I have not heard anyone speculate that this could have been a conflict between the intelligence agencies and the military. Any thoughts?
Holy Cow!! Did you see Patrick Lancaster on YouTube? He got a statement out of PRIGOZHIN and the crowd treated the whole event like a Party/Parade!!
This entire incident is further evidence, if any were needed, thst Russia drastically miscalculated in not doing what was necessary to bring the war to a quick conclusion.
The longer it goes on, the more we will see events such as these and the harder it will be for Russia to escalate. Already, NATO smells blood. The failure of the counteroffensive is forgotten. It just needed a little more attention, more weapons money and training is the new narrative.
Allowing Russia's enemies to spin defeat into victory will forever be Prigozhin's legacy.
The war is with NATO not Ukraine. Ukraine is just the battlefield. NATO smells blood? Ok... what are they gonna do about it?
They'll do exactly what they are doing now, since, short of a nuclear attack, there is little or nothing Russia can do that so much as mildly inconveniences the decisionmakers in Washington.
This is true. But Russia's stance has always been to have peaceable relations with the US, if only the US would let it.
Absolutely. That last phrase is the problem. The United States does not seek "peaceable relations" but a master-vassal relationship.
feral finster= strelkovite 6th column like prigo
Lol. The first step to fixing a problem is to admit that there is a problem.
Sadly it seems people prefer to live in echo chambers