Ukraine has approximately 130 brigades. Information suggests that the majority of these brigades are operating with only half of their intended manpower. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) should currently have between 195,000 and 325,000 personnel remaining in their ranks, considering a full brigade comprises between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers. This figure also encompasses logistics forces; the actual number of frontline troops is lower.
This is not enough to defend such a large front line in the event of an overwhelming Russian offensive. In this war, speed is of the essence, tanks are obsolete, as any armour can be penetrated. I think the Russians will attack with highly mobile units, and will want to cover as much distance as quickly as possible, before the enemy can even send reinforcements. It could be something similar to what the Ukrainians did in Kharkov in 2022. That was only possible because the Russians were short of men. But since then, the tables have turned, and now the Russians have many more deployable soldiers. And of course the Russians have the much greater firepower, which is now mainly due to guided air bombs.
Regarding the presence of NATO troops on the ground and the Russian "nuclear blackmail", as the Western MSM portraits it, Gilbert Doctorow and Sputnik International say that Russia announcement/threat of upcoming tactical nuclear missile drills worked: apparently NATO is now discussing a “No boots on the ground” in Ukraine as a key phrase contained in a draft document set to be approved by the NATO summit in Washington in July.
The Ukrainians are crossing the rivers towards Crimea again, preparing a foothold after they lost so many there last time. Or is it a diversion?
How long before Russia advances on Sumy and Kharkhiv? They may have greater numbers, but silence in some old places suggests they are stretched.
Polish Brigadier General Adam Marczak. Did he die in Ukraine? There must have been lots of NATO killed but little reporting, and nothing amalgamating the situation.
The naval situation a major challenge for Russia, and I worry that more and more of Odessa will be attacked.
> all the people kidnapped from the streets and thrown into the battle by force
I think it's becoming ever more difficult to defend this idea that Ukrainian common folk are unwitting pawns in the Great Game. By this point, they suffered ~1 million dead from the war, which translates to 2.5% of the pre-war population. Add another ~1 million crippled and you get 5% total casualty rate. Yet Ukraine still fights. You know who suffered the same casualty rate but kept on going? Nazi Germany. And Germans were Nazis back then. We can play all kinds of games at explaining it away but at the end of the day, Germans had 10 years to kick Nazis out before the war. They didn't. Just like Ukrainians. And Germans fought even while losing some 10% of men, similar to Ukraine. They're equal. We need to drop this pretense of Ukrainian folk being "the good guys". They aren't, and they're currently being taught a lesson in thinking clearly.
I fully understand your perspective and agree with your last statement.
However, one question continues to puzzle me: How exactly could the Ukrainian people liberate themselves from the current dictatorship, the war machine, nationalist battalions, combined NATO psychological operations, and the overarching command and control systems including information and communication control?
Could you devise a strategic plan for how the Ukrainians might organize and succeed in resistance?
Believe me, I excel in such strategic matters, yet I find myself without a viable solution.
In fact, it seems that NATO's involvement ensures that the casualties will become far greater than just 5%...
Well now is the eleventh hour so it's difficult to recover anything. :) But, lets try to figure something out.
First, we need to assume there is broad preexisting sentiment among the people that Ukronazis have to go. If at least 30% of people don't share this sentiment, what I'm going to describe can't work.
Next, the objective of my proposal isn't to create a good system, or a stable state, or *good life*, it's to get rid of Ukronazis.
Given all that, there are a number of weak points that can be exploited by the plebs to force the system to behave. One obvious one is to withold payments. If 30-50% of people were to not pay anything for a few months, the economy will stop. Another is labor. A three-month long contry-wide strike is sure to force Ukronazis into negotiations with the people.
There are simpler means as well. Blow up recruitment offices. Kill soldiers and policemen AND PUBLIC SERVANTS, with the justification being that they're enemies of the people. If Ukraine really is as corrupt as they say it is, it shouldn't be a problem to assemble a bunch of terrorist teams with kalashnikovs and just start going from town to town killing the mayor and associates. The list of targets can be moderated (or expanded!) based on official's participation in Ukronazism. They say you can find instructions on how to build pipe bombs on Internet. Ukrainians can put that to good use. Hey, why not use those FPV drones to kill Ukronazis in their bed, while they sleep? Or for that matter, why not just knife them in their sleep? It shouldn't be too difficult to organize roving bands of terrorists to kill Ukronazis.
If Ukronazis don't have the freedom of movement and action due to terrorists, they'll lose their grip on power.
If people are mobilized, they can just refuse orders. Better yet, just kill the Ukronazis. You don't need to coordinate with anyone, just wait until you're in the trench and kill you comrades. You'll still get hit and killed by Russian artillery but you'd have done your part. If 10% of soldiers did this consistently, there would be no more AFU.
But for all of this to work, you'd need popular support. ;) I said I'm assuming it already exists. You can try awaking it by graffiti, pamphlets and initial terrorist attacks. I'm not a fan of torture, but maybe there's some Ukronazis that deserve a (quick) tortorous death. If there are, do it, film it and distribute the media. That's sure to give ideas to people. Then again, it might turn people away from La Resistance so maybe don't do it.
Obviously, if successfull, this would cause a collapse of the state and anarchy. HOWEVER, Russians and Belarussians agitated for this very thing back in Spring 2022. But then again, if people really don't want Ukronazis, they can say to Russia "come in and help keep law and order until we denazify". Russia will probably not be able to say no. So then Russia keeps the peace until Ukronazis are purged and a new election held.
As for leadership, there doesn't need to be any particular one. People can just start working on this and those who are most effective will self-selected to lead negotiations with Russia, after the insurrection has sufficiently degraded Ukronazis.
Obviously, the first generation of fighters/terrorists to go down this road can expect to get their eyes gorged out and force fed their own dicks before getting disemboweled. If Ukrainian people trully aren't OK with Ukronazis, they should still be able to, as a people, produce a sufficient number of self-seleted volunteers that consider this fate acceptable.
This response has been typed out without spending too much time thinking about it, so it might have a hole or two but I think the general idea is perfectly workable.
Thank you for the effort of bringing your thoughts together.
Well... I'm sorry to say but these are no "innovations". NATO and the Ukrainian services are very well aware of it and therefore they control the information and media space in Ukraine entirely. To avoid that word is being spread of such attacks and to get Intel when someone is talking about such plans or trying to organise it and send them instantly to zero (front).
There are such attacks in Ukraine but information is being suppressed. So it can't spread. There are teams to isolate such "diversion" activities.
The techniques are well known. Just study how Russia ended the color revolution in Belarus or how Iran regularly ends (western instigated) protests...
The main vector against almost everything you said is information control and mobile nationakist/SBU teams for suppression and subsequent killing/mobilising.
The people are a) afraid to the bones and b) as you initially said actually entirely brainwashed by decades of western propaganda.
They are currently in the process of being sobered as the Germans were 1945 and beyond.
I still think the main brake on Ukrainians are the small numbers of people that oppose Ukronazis. I would hazard a guess of 10% of the pre-war population. Now it might be as low as 5% or even less, as I would imagine all of those oppose them and could leave left.
Stretch them thin enough, keep them guessing, and they'll rip eventually. Happened in Haiti, happened in Myanmar, can happen in Ukraine. Can happen in USA (against the Woke). Can happen anywhere. Globohomo beware (I know you're reading). ;)
Connecting dots. If US/EU/NATO wants to destroy the Kerch bridge and conventional munitions are inadequate, then you are describing a mission suitable for a tactical nuclear weapon. And if Russia believes that NATO is seriously considering this option, then that might explain why the Russian Armed Forces Southern Command is conducting drills with tactical nuclear weapons and has openly stated this training activity. It sends a clear message that any use of a tactical nuclear weapon on the Kerch Bridge will be met with a retaliation of similar kind. And my guess is that this retaliation would likely be at the large NATO troop assembly base in Romania. Yes, it's insane for NATO to consider this type of escalation, but sanity is not present among current Western decision-makers.
I agree, but there are nuances. I strongly doubt that Russia would use nuclear weapons on soil it considers historically Russian. That would leave only Western Ukraine as potential targets for tactical nuclear weapons. If NATO were to advance further—which I don't believe they will in the first place—then retaliation might target large NATO bases in neighboring countries to cut off supplies and supply routes.
Nevertheless, this is all theoretical. I don't anticipate the need for such a scenario. We'll see.
Excellent, as always! Thanks to Piquet (keep battling AI 😁).
A few observations:
A. Many in the US believe Speaker Johnson got a talking to by the pupper masters and flipped his support.
B. The biggest items in that horrible Saturday's voting on the Hill, we're the FISA 702 expansion and REPO Act ("legalizing," the stealing of Russian wealth).
C. I think the MOD will be selective in which bridges across the Dneiper will be destroyed (FAB9000?). Only those bridges that trap the Ukrainian forces on the left bank will be destroyed.
D. Russia city re-building may be matched by China's city building. See also Grozny.
E. Any thoughts on President Xi's visit to Belgrade?
I'm sure that's the case. Nevertheless, in such cases one gets "something" for additional motivation. I have no idea what that was in this particular case.
B) Yes.
C) Also yes. (FAB 9000 can't be transported to these bridges :))) ). You need the big planes very close to these bridges for the 9000s... And these are easy big sparkling targets. But yes, somehow they could be destroyed in this case.
D) Yes.
E) In fact yes... I have an article in the pipeline about China which I intend to write soon... You will read my thoughts then :)
Thanks for asking for my family :) We are doing well. The bigger challange is our five year old son who is now seeking for far more attention :D :D :D But we love it. My wife has everything under control :D Thank you!
Regarding Kerch bridge. They need to set up some sort of rope or metal nets around the pillars to eliminate the threats from sea drones. This would leave ATACMS as a threat. If the pillars are safe, that's 75 % of the job.
There's an F16 elephant that wasn't addressed. The F16 is nuclear capable, and Russia has reasserted that they will treat it as such. That puts nuclear tipped SAMs on the table, and things are going to rapidly escalate if Russia does as I suspect and strike the first F16 they see in Ukrainian airspace with one.
Yes, I didn't mention that elephant explicitly. You're right, I should have done that.
However, I don't assign much weight to this matter. F-16s can't cause strategic harm with the nuclear weapons they could potentially deliver. If they were to do so, they would trigger a full-blown Russian retaliation. Therefore, it doesn't make sense. I believe there are rules in place that, as long as these planes simply continue the mission of their Soviet predecessors, it will be tolerated.
If they were to attack mainland Russia, the Black Sea Fleet, or approach directly from NATO countries, without taking the usual routes over Ukraine, then the situation might indeed escalate.
Nevertheless, I'm confident that no one is interested in such a scenario, so we won't see such escalations.
I appreciate the insight. I don't know Russian doctrine on nuke releases as well as the US, but I know that one of the triggers in the US for a Pinnacle NUCFLASH message is a nuclear-capable platform coming within striking distance of CONUS. If Russia follows the same doctrine, then an F-16 getting within 200 miles of say, Kursk (the range of an AGM-158) could be treated the same as an incoming ICBM. That's essentially anywhere east of Kiev.
You have much more confidence in the competence of western politicians than I do. What I'm seeing reminds me more of <i>Dr. Strangelove</i> than anything else.
1. Ukraine needs symbolic victories to keep that sweet sweet western cash flowing. Therefore, preventing such symbolic victories should be a priority for Russia if it actually wants to win and not just play footsie.
2. Threats to the West if they intervene in Ukraine assume that Russia has the stomach to actually carry through and not just make idle threats once more.
Since this is a war that Russia truly does not want and the West is absolutely itching for confrontation, not to mention the West has already sunk so much material and reputational capital into Ukraine that they cannot lose, I would bet that the West will see if Russia is bluffing again.
It is a good idea to get some cash and get shopping done during the day today. This will likely disturb power grids and electronic transactions; the biggest event since 2005.
"What could Russia have done with all those resources in a macroeconomic sense instead of simply repairing a capital stock that already existed?"
That is an economists view, its part of what they call the "broken window fallacy". I strongly suspect that this is incorrect, at least in this case. Without the SMO, the Russian spirit would likely have remained dormant, buried in western consumptionist thinking. As such, this destruction is surely needed, sad as it is. Jing-Jang, you cannot have one without the other.
F16: Note that Russia has said that it will attack any F16 -including its base- attacking its armies, even when flown from non-Ukrainian airfields. I.e. attack on airfields in Romania or Poland
Dnieper bridges: I suspect that the west, oeps, AFU, will destroy them anyhow as soon as they pull back over them.
Chasov Yar: I doubt the RuAF are creating another meatgrinder on purpose. The old meatgrinders consumed up to 1000 soldiers a day (some days more). Without the meatgrinders AFU losses were in the range 200-400 a day (as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Today however, AFU losses are often above 1000 men a day, even without explicitly created meatgrinders. Makes sense too, because on several parts of the fronts the AFU is now fighting from improvised positions instead of fortification created over the previous 8 years.
Ocheretino: In my view, this is a kind of "breakthrough" situation. I strongly suspect that the RuAF will try to expand this (and create more of it) as a replacement for the meatgrinder approach. (In Chasov Yar they only need to keep the pressure on, no more.)
The disadvantage of the meatgrinders is that all existing infrastructure is destroyed, the "breakthrough" approach leaves at least a considerable part of the infrastructure intact. (And the percentage intact will probably increase as the speed of the advance picks up)
Foreign troops: Russia has made it clear that as soon as a western soldier under western command fires at a Russian soldier, that soldier and all his support base become fair game. I.e. a UK soldier (storm shadow!) attacking a place in Russia proper, will be regarded as a UK attack on Russian soil.
Just for fun: If US troops under US command would be deployed in the Ukraine, many US citizens would not arrive on their work place next day as the GPS system would have been taken out! (slight exaggeration, but you get the point) Thus no, there will be no US troops in the Ukraine (under US command)
That’s an interesting analysis. Thank you for that!
Regarding economics... You might be right about this particular point, and it is undoubtedly an important one. Nevertheless, other international players, both enemies and friends, will capitalize on that. Is that necessarily a bad thing? That’s an entirely different question.
Now that the RuAF have attacked in the Kharkiv area, it is pointless for them to try and create meat-grinders on purpose. The AFU is reportedly stripping units from all over the front to send to the Kharkiv area. There is no more meat for the meat-grinders.
Maybe the Europeans should stop listening to the Woke bullshit they are being fed, which implies that family and kids are undesirable, and instead, they should buy several bottles of wine, lock the bedroom door, and… solve the demographics problems 😊 Instead of forcefully incorporating poor young people from warzones where the West initiated the war…
you are right, but teh capitalist mindset dictates the easier solution, to import people form warzones
1. The domestic population do not like "to invest" time and money in bearing children
2. It is a neoliberal dream to buy poeple as finished products and use them
"they should buy several bottles of wine, lock the bedroom door, and… solve the demographics problems"
Presently, it is estimated that raising a child to age 18 in USA costs about US $380,000. For Euros, I doubt it is cheaper. Every young adult that can be "persuaded" to leave Ukraine permanently and so obviate the need for such investments by western couples PLUS elimination of 18 years lead time for building the new cog for war machine is quite valuable...
Ukraine has approximately 130 brigades. Information suggests that the majority of these brigades are operating with only half of their intended manpower. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) should currently have between 195,000 and 325,000 personnel remaining in their ranks, considering a full brigade comprises between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers. This figure also encompasses logistics forces; the actual number of frontline troops is lower.
This is not enough to defend such a large front line in the event of an overwhelming Russian offensive. In this war, speed is of the essence, tanks are obsolete, as any armour can be penetrated. I think the Russians will attack with highly mobile units, and will want to cover as much distance as quickly as possible, before the enemy can even send reinforcements. It could be something similar to what the Ukrainians did in Kharkov in 2022. That was only possible because the Russians were short of men. But since then, the tables have turned, and now the Russians have many more deployable soldiers. And of course the Russians have the much greater firepower, which is now mainly due to guided air bombs.
Thanks for that very informative comment.
So what is Russia waiting for?
It's not a race. Russia have plenty of time.
NATO is not giving that time.
Thx very much for what you do. Simplicius(sp?) is getting some competition, but I'd say in my opinion you are as close as anyone else to being second.
Look fwd to your next piece.
Excellent update! Thanks 🙏
Thank you!
Well thought out and concise explanation of things past , current, and to come.
Thanks, Christina.
Regarding the presence of NATO troops on the ground and the Russian "nuclear blackmail", as the Western MSM portraits it, Gilbert Doctorow and Sputnik International say that Russia announcement/threat of upcoming tactical nuclear missile drills worked: apparently NATO is now discussing a “No boots on the ground” in Ukraine as a key phrase contained in a draft document set to be approved by the NATO summit in Washington in July.
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/05/08/deadly-threats-work-sputnik-globe-on-the-nato-climbdown-in-response-to-russias-coming-nuclear-arms-exercises/
I also think, that it worked... at least for the time being.
There will be new attempts :))))
The Ukrainians are crossing the rivers towards Crimea again, preparing a foothold after they lost so many there last time. Or is it a diversion?
How long before Russia advances on Sumy and Kharkhiv? They may have greater numbers, but silence in some old places suggests they are stretched.
Polish Brigadier General Adam Marczak. Did he die in Ukraine? There must have been lots of NATO killed but little reporting, and nothing amalgamating the situation.
The naval situation a major challenge for Russia, and I worry that more and more of Odessa will be attacked.
Russia's economy booming.
> all the people kidnapped from the streets and thrown into the battle by force
I think it's becoming ever more difficult to defend this idea that Ukrainian common folk are unwitting pawns in the Great Game. By this point, they suffered ~1 million dead from the war, which translates to 2.5% of the pre-war population. Add another ~1 million crippled and you get 5% total casualty rate. Yet Ukraine still fights. You know who suffered the same casualty rate but kept on going? Nazi Germany. And Germans were Nazis back then. We can play all kinds of games at explaining it away but at the end of the day, Germans had 10 years to kick Nazis out before the war. They didn't. Just like Ukrainians. And Germans fought even while losing some 10% of men, similar to Ukraine. They're equal. We need to drop this pretense of Ukrainian folk being "the good guys". They aren't, and they're currently being taught a lesson in thinking clearly.
I fully understand your perspective and agree with your last statement.
However, one question continues to puzzle me: How exactly could the Ukrainian people liberate themselves from the current dictatorship, the war machine, nationalist battalions, combined NATO psychological operations, and the overarching command and control systems including information and communication control?
Could you devise a strategic plan for how the Ukrainians might organize and succeed in resistance?
Believe me, I excel in such strategic matters, yet I find myself without a viable solution.
In fact, it seems that NATO's involvement ensures that the casualties will become far greater than just 5%...
Well now is the eleventh hour so it's difficult to recover anything. :) But, lets try to figure something out.
First, we need to assume there is broad preexisting sentiment among the people that Ukronazis have to go. If at least 30% of people don't share this sentiment, what I'm going to describe can't work.
Next, the objective of my proposal isn't to create a good system, or a stable state, or *good life*, it's to get rid of Ukronazis.
Given all that, there are a number of weak points that can be exploited by the plebs to force the system to behave. One obvious one is to withold payments. If 30-50% of people were to not pay anything for a few months, the economy will stop. Another is labor. A three-month long contry-wide strike is sure to force Ukronazis into negotiations with the people.
There are simpler means as well. Blow up recruitment offices. Kill soldiers and policemen AND PUBLIC SERVANTS, with the justification being that they're enemies of the people. If Ukraine really is as corrupt as they say it is, it shouldn't be a problem to assemble a bunch of terrorist teams with kalashnikovs and just start going from town to town killing the mayor and associates. The list of targets can be moderated (or expanded!) based on official's participation in Ukronazism. They say you can find instructions on how to build pipe bombs on Internet. Ukrainians can put that to good use. Hey, why not use those FPV drones to kill Ukronazis in their bed, while they sleep? Or for that matter, why not just knife them in their sleep? It shouldn't be too difficult to organize roving bands of terrorists to kill Ukronazis.
If Ukronazis don't have the freedom of movement and action due to terrorists, they'll lose their grip on power.
If people are mobilized, they can just refuse orders. Better yet, just kill the Ukronazis. You don't need to coordinate with anyone, just wait until you're in the trench and kill you comrades. You'll still get hit and killed by Russian artillery but you'd have done your part. If 10% of soldiers did this consistently, there would be no more AFU.
But for all of this to work, you'd need popular support. ;) I said I'm assuming it already exists. You can try awaking it by graffiti, pamphlets and initial terrorist attacks. I'm not a fan of torture, but maybe there's some Ukronazis that deserve a (quick) tortorous death. If there are, do it, film it and distribute the media. That's sure to give ideas to people. Then again, it might turn people away from La Resistance so maybe don't do it.
Obviously, if successfull, this would cause a collapse of the state and anarchy. HOWEVER, Russians and Belarussians agitated for this very thing back in Spring 2022. But then again, if people really don't want Ukronazis, they can say to Russia "come in and help keep law and order until we denazify". Russia will probably not be able to say no. So then Russia keeps the peace until Ukronazis are purged and a new election held.
As for leadership, there doesn't need to be any particular one. People can just start working on this and those who are most effective will self-selected to lead negotiations with Russia, after the insurrection has sufficiently degraded Ukronazis.
Obviously, the first generation of fighters/terrorists to go down this road can expect to get their eyes gorged out and force fed their own dicks before getting disemboweled. If Ukrainian people trully aren't OK with Ukronazis, they should still be able to, as a people, produce a sufficient number of self-seleted volunteers that consider this fate acceptable.
This response has been typed out without spending too much time thinking about it, so it might have a hole or two but I think the general idea is perfectly workable.
Thank you for the effort of bringing your thoughts together.
Well... I'm sorry to say but these are no "innovations". NATO and the Ukrainian services are very well aware of it and therefore they control the information and media space in Ukraine entirely. To avoid that word is being spread of such attacks and to get Intel when someone is talking about such plans or trying to organise it and send them instantly to zero (front).
There are such attacks in Ukraine but information is being suppressed. So it can't spread. There are teams to isolate such "diversion" activities.
The techniques are well known. Just study how Russia ended the color revolution in Belarus or how Iran regularly ends (western instigated) protests...
The main vector against almost everything you said is information control and mobile nationakist/SBU teams for suppression and subsequent killing/mobilising.
The people are a) afraid to the bones and b) as you initially said actually entirely brainwashed by decades of western propaganda.
They are currently in the process of being sobered as the Germans were 1945 and beyond.
I still think the main brake on Ukrainians are the small numbers of people that oppose Ukronazis. I would hazard a guess of 10% of the pre-war population. Now it might be as low as 5% or even less, as I would imagine all of those oppose them and could leave left.
Yes, I agree. Maybe not on the numbers but in general I agree.
And the reasons are not located within Ukraine...
That's the whole point I want to make. But yes, you're right.
Additional food for though: https://thefallofthewest.substack.com/p/myanmar-and-the-future-of-warfare
Stretch them thin enough, keep them guessing, and they'll rip eventually. Happened in Haiti, happened in Myanmar, can happen in Ukraine. Can happen in USA (against the Woke). Can happen anywhere. Globohomo beware (I know you're reading). ;)
Connecting dots. If US/EU/NATO wants to destroy the Kerch bridge and conventional munitions are inadequate, then you are describing a mission suitable for a tactical nuclear weapon. And if Russia believes that NATO is seriously considering this option, then that might explain why the Russian Armed Forces Southern Command is conducting drills with tactical nuclear weapons and has openly stated this training activity. It sends a clear message that any use of a tactical nuclear weapon on the Kerch Bridge will be met with a retaliation of similar kind. And my guess is that this retaliation would likely be at the large NATO troop assembly base in Romania. Yes, it's insane for NATO to consider this type of escalation, but sanity is not present among current Western decision-makers.
Gilbert Doctorow is of the opinion that Russia is eager to kill NATO soldiers in Ukraine with tactical nukes and not trade Russian lives for theirs.
I agree, but there are nuances. I strongly doubt that Russia would use nuclear weapons on soil it considers historically Russian. That would leave only Western Ukraine as potential targets for tactical nuclear weapons. If NATO were to advance further—which I don't believe they will in the first place—then retaliation might target large NATO bases in neighboring countries to cut off supplies and supply routes.
Nevertheless, this is all theoretical. I don't anticipate the need for such a scenario. We'll see.
Excellent, as always! Thanks to Piquet (keep battling AI 😁).
A few observations:
A. Many in the US believe Speaker Johnson got a talking to by the pupper masters and flipped his support.
B. The biggest items in that horrible Saturday's voting on the Hill, we're the FISA 702 expansion and REPO Act ("legalizing," the stealing of Russian wealth).
C. I think the MOD will be selective in which bridges across the Dneiper will be destroyed (FAB9000?). Only those bridges that trap the Ukrainian forces on the left bank will be destroyed.
D. Russia city re-building may be matched by China's city building. See also Grozny.
E. Any thoughts on President Xi's visit to Belgrade?
Cheers from Lincoln!
Post Script: How's the new baby and your Wife?
Yes, Speaker Johnson got showed his file and told what he needed to do to survive.
Yes on the desperately severe legislation, FISA and REPO, which can only weaken the power structure as it grasps at straws.
Yes, Aleks, I also hope your wife and baby are thriving.
Yes, I agree, John :)
And see my answer above, with regards to my fam :)
Best wishes to you and your family.
Hi Kotanraju,
thank you :) AI can't compete with Piquet ;)
A)
I'm sure that's the case. Nevertheless, in such cases one gets "something" for additional motivation. I have no idea what that was in this particular case.
B) Yes.
C) Also yes. (FAB 9000 can't be transported to these bridges :))) ). You need the big planes very close to these bridges for the 9000s... And these are easy big sparkling targets. But yes, somehow they could be destroyed in this case.
D) Yes.
E) In fact yes... I have an article in the pipeline about China which I intend to write soon... You will read my thoughts then :)
Thanks for asking for my family :) We are doing well. The bigger challange is our five year old son who is now seeking for far more attention :D :D :D But we love it. My wife has everything under control :D Thank you!
Regarding Kerch bridge. They need to set up some sort of rope or metal nets around the pillars to eliminate the threats from sea drones. This would leave ATACMS as a threat. If the pillars are safe, that's 75 % of the job.
I think they did that last year.
Yes, I also think so.
One question Aleks. Twice you mention the number 5 million living in Crimea.
However all data I can find in internet points to 2.5 million, 2 in Crimean republic and 0.5 in Sebastopol.
Where did you get the 5 million?
Thanks for this very sharp analysis btw
Thank you, Pepe.
You're right. I had a wrong number. I corrected it now.
There's an F16 elephant that wasn't addressed. The F16 is nuclear capable, and Russia has reasserted that they will treat it as such. That puts nuclear tipped SAMs on the table, and things are going to rapidly escalate if Russia does as I suspect and strike the first F16 they see in Ukrainian airspace with one.
Yes, I didn't mention that elephant explicitly. You're right, I should have done that.
However, I don't assign much weight to this matter. F-16s can't cause strategic harm with the nuclear weapons they could potentially deliver. If they were to do so, they would trigger a full-blown Russian retaliation. Therefore, it doesn't make sense. I believe there are rules in place that, as long as these planes simply continue the mission of their Soviet predecessors, it will be tolerated.
If they were to attack mainland Russia, the Black Sea Fleet, or approach directly from NATO countries, without taking the usual routes over Ukraine, then the situation might indeed escalate.
Nevertheless, I'm confident that no one is interested in such a scenario, so we won't see such escalations.
I appreciate the insight. I don't know Russian doctrine on nuke releases as well as the US, but I know that one of the triggers in the US for a Pinnacle NUCFLASH message is a nuclear-capable platform coming within striking distance of CONUS. If Russia follows the same doctrine, then an F-16 getting within 200 miles of say, Kursk (the range of an AGM-158) could be treated the same as an incoming ICBM. That's essentially anywhere east of Kiev.
Yes, I absolutely agree.
I'm sure that all parties involved will take this into consideration.
The main purpose of these deliveries is to supply cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow, which have a range of roughly 450 miles.
This leaves some room for maneuver.
Nobody is going to trigger a nuclear war over Ukraine. :)
You have much more confidence in the competence of western politicians than I do. What I'm seeing reminds me more of <i>Dr. Strangelove</i> than anything else.
We shall see next month.
;-(
1. Ukraine needs symbolic victories to keep that sweet sweet western cash flowing. Therefore, preventing such symbolic victories should be a priority for Russia if it actually wants to win and not just play footsie.
2. Threats to the West if they intervene in Ukraine assume that Russia has the stomach to actually carry through and not just make idle threats once more.
Since this is a war that Russia truly does not want and the West is absolutely itching for confrontation, not to mention the West has already sunk so much material and reputational capital into Ukraine that they cannot lose, I would bet that the West will see if Russia is bluffing again.
Russia could also use a tactical space nuke to wipe out all near earth orbit satellites in a region.
Yes, and effectively "blinding" NATO would probably be more effective than almost anything else Russia could do at this point.
The question remains whether the Russian leadership has the stomach to do so.
It is a good idea to get some cash and get shopping done during the day today. This will likely disturb power grids and electronic transactions; the biggest event since 2005.
SIX SOLAR STORMS ON THEIR WAY TO EARTH | S0 News May.10.2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKGlGCIiyZE
"What could Russia have done with all those resources in a macroeconomic sense instead of simply repairing a capital stock that already existed?"
That is an economists view, its part of what they call the "broken window fallacy". I strongly suspect that this is incorrect, at least in this case. Without the SMO, the Russian spirit would likely have remained dormant, buried in western consumptionist thinking. As such, this destruction is surely needed, sad as it is. Jing-Jang, you cannot have one without the other.
F16: Note that Russia has said that it will attack any F16 -including its base- attacking its armies, even when flown from non-Ukrainian airfields. I.e. attack on airfields in Romania or Poland
Dnieper bridges: I suspect that the west, oeps, AFU, will destroy them anyhow as soon as they pull back over them.
Chasov Yar: I doubt the RuAF are creating another meatgrinder on purpose. The old meatgrinders consumed up to 1000 soldiers a day (some days more). Without the meatgrinders AFU losses were in the range 200-400 a day (as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Today however, AFU losses are often above 1000 men a day, even without explicitly created meatgrinders. Makes sense too, because on several parts of the fronts the AFU is now fighting from improvised positions instead of fortification created over the previous 8 years.
Ocheretino: In my view, this is a kind of "breakthrough" situation. I strongly suspect that the RuAF will try to expand this (and create more of it) as a replacement for the meatgrinder approach. (In Chasov Yar they only need to keep the pressure on, no more.)
The disadvantage of the meatgrinders is that all existing infrastructure is destroyed, the "breakthrough" approach leaves at least a considerable part of the infrastructure intact. (And the percentage intact will probably increase as the speed of the advance picks up)
Foreign troops: Russia has made it clear that as soon as a western soldier under western command fires at a Russian soldier, that soldier and all his support base become fair game. I.e. a UK soldier (storm shadow!) attacking a place in Russia proper, will be regarded as a UK attack on Russian soil.
Just for fun: If US troops under US command would be deployed in the Ukraine, many US citizens would not arrive on their work place next day as the GPS system would have been taken out! (slight exaggeration, but you get the point) Thus no, there will be no US troops in the Ukraine (under US command)
That’s an interesting analysis. Thank you for that!
Regarding economics... You might be right about this particular point, and it is undoubtedly an important one. Nevertheless, other international players, both enemies and friends, will capitalize on that. Is that necessarily a bad thing? That’s an entirely different question.
Now that the RuAF have attacked in the Kharkiv area, it is pointless for them to try and create meat-grinders on purpose. The AFU is reportedly stripping units from all over the front to send to the Kharkiv area. There is no more meat for the meat-grinders.
https://thecausalobserver.substack.com/p/next-phase-in-ukraine
In general, Ukraine is still strong enough. Russia is unable to break their lines. We shall se what happens in the next months.
Maybe the Europeans should stop listening to the Woke bullshit they are being fed, which implies that family and kids are undesirable, and instead, they should buy several bottles of wine, lock the bedroom door, and… solve the demographics problems 😊 Instead of forcefully incorporating poor young people from warzones where the West initiated the war…
you are right, but teh capitalist mindset dictates the easier solution, to import people form warzones
1. The domestic population do not like "to invest" time and money in bearing children
2. It is a neoliberal dream to buy poeple as finished products and use them
@Marko
"they should buy several bottles of wine, lock the bedroom door, and… solve the demographics problems"
Presently, it is estimated that raising a child to age 18 in USA costs about US $380,000. For Euros, I doubt it is cheaper. Every young adult that can be "persuaded" to leave Ukraine permanently and so obviate the need for such investments by western couples PLUS elimination of 18 years lead time for building the new cog for war machine is quite valuable...
Yes :)
Yes :)