! Urgent update 2!

Prigozhin's power struggle?

Hello community,

Meanwhile I slept over the events unfolding in Russia.

I have developed a few thoughts which I want to share.

I tend to believe that we are talking about a power struggle. I’ll explain that bellow.

President Putin just now broadcasted a speech to the nation. He seems to be genuinely upset and is threatening consequences and the elimination of the leaders of the insurgency. I already said, if Putin says something then it is what he thinks in most cases. That’s why my initial assessment that it is deception/maskirovka dropped from 80% to 40%. We will see.

IF it IS a coup/power struggle by Prigozhin then keep these things in mind:

• I’m fully convinced (I could be wrong) that all parties involved are patriots. The political leadership, the military leadership and the PMC Wagner.

• This leads me to the conclusion that I would not expect to see any clashes between Wagner and the Russian military.

• It is more a power struggle. Who can gather more supporters within politics and the military leadership.

• The goal is to open up oblasts and eventually Moscow PEACEFULLY. Without firing a single shot. This would happen if local commanders would not fire at approaching Wagner forces if they are on Prigozhin’s side.

• Still, there is the question about what Prigozhin wants to achieve. Get rid of Putin? I’m having a hard time to believe that but everything is possible.

• Getting rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov? Likely. But what then? Replacing by whom? With what consequences? I have no idea.

• What I know from Prigozhin yet, he would start a war and end the SMO. With massive mobilization waves in both, human and equipment. A slaughter on an epic scale would follow. (I would not want to be a Ukrainian now, but if this is the case, I have no words that could express my pity for these poor morons, except the Nazis.)

• Summary: If IT IS a coup/power struggle than it is a power struggle which is aimed at bringing Russian leaders and commanders to change sides or behave neutral when the Wagner forces approach. A devastated supply line and distracted military neither serves Prigozhin’s goals nor the Russian leader’s goals. Nevertheless, bringing these supply-lines under control would increase the leverage of Prigozhin.

Yet, I want to reinforce my opinion that I’m not convinced yet, what it really is. Deception or a power struggle? But we will see. It could become clear quickly. Even today.

But keep the following in mind:

• In both cases, coup or deception, if the parties involved put such titanic efforts in the operation (coup or deception) than what is going to happen will be on an epic scale. And it is aimed at Ukrainian, no matter what it is. Hence, SOMETHING is going to happen but no-one knows what, of course.

• If it IS a coup and it eventually fails than probably nothing new would happen apart of some purges in Wagner and the military.

• If it is a coup and it is successful, then we can of course scrap all of my analysis I did for the time being. The whole strategic situation, both militarily, economically and geopolitically would need to be completely reassessed. Putin wants to, more or less (Ukraine) peacefully, end the Western hegemony over the world and shape a new multipolar world order where Russia would have a leading role. Prigozhin is a hammer. I assume that this surgical operation is entirely impossible with him. But who knows? We should not think in this direction now because, as I said, I do not believe in such a scenario, yet. If it materializes then we will reassess it.

Thank you everyone for your comments in the last update. It helped me of course to see things clearer. Who knows me for a longer time knows the following: If bad things happen then I usually stay at distance for two days to get a proper assessment. Only if there is an emergency I post immediately. I value to the current events the degree of an “Emergency”. It doesn’t matter whether it IS a coup or a deception. Both should most likely trigger big events.

Again, I would like to ask you to use this as an open thread and to post your opinions in the comment section. Thank you for that. I take them into my considerations.