Unfortunately, Martyanov also seems to agree with you and that we are facing a betrayal.The only thing we can do is to pray that everything will be resolved without bloodshed.Let's pray for Russia!
With Putin's address, and the movement of Wagner's troops, I no longer see this as a psyop. This is real, and I can't imagine what Prigozhin is thinking will happen as a result. Half of his troops will likely abandon Wagner and join the Russian forces.
Some analysts in the past have speculated that members of Russian intelligence services were behind the leadership of the Wagner Company.The treachery we are witnessing also extends to sectors of Russian intelligence services???
I assume that Prigozhin and the people supporting him don't see themselves as traitors. There are many people in the intelligence services and the military that are entirely dissatisfied with the SMO approach.
They see Putin as the traitor and not themselves.
Russia could have end Ukraine within 3 months comprehensively.
But Putin chose to take all the long term geopolitical aspects into consideration. Hence, the SMO approach.
It is far to easy to search for traitors. The topic is far more complicated.
Putin couldn't communicate his strategy to his military and intelligence leaders. Maybe to the highest, yes. But below not.
Hence, they didn't have the full picture and SOME of them most likely decided to go against the guy they consider as the traitor. Putin. They would never call his name since then they would lose the Russian people.
John Kennedy was assassinated because he was seen as a traitor by the military and CIA, and also had enemies in the Federal Reserve banking system and Israel.
JFK was preventing Israel from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Johnson gave them plutonum secretly.
Lyndon Johnson was vile and evil in every way (in my humble, but well-informeed opinion).
Suddenly Prigozhin took the town in Russia and FSB didn't know anything about it? Yea, right. He would already be dead. Only possibility is if the intelligence community supports the coup and they hid the information. But Pirgozhin does not look smart or intelligent at all to stage a coup (his level is at max tactical commander on the battlefield), so I don't know who would be stupid enough to follow him.
If this is really a coup, and establishment didn't know about it, they wouldn't take a border town and announce to everyone that they will come to Moscow. This would most probably be doomed to failure. They would use an element of surprise and already be in Moscow.
Images are circulating of a fuel depot blown up in Voronezh. Interesting.
Here's list of conditions that that I came up with and that, if any of them is fulfilled, would for me decide the deception-or-mutiny dillema as mutiny:
1. more than a few dead civilians; ESPECIALLY if they die as collateral damage in fighting between Wagner and RuAF
2. something important blown up... might be triggered by the fuel depot, but fuel depots have been blowing up for months and nothing happened afterwards... debatable if this got triggered
3. more than a dozen dead soldiers, RuAF or Wagner. However! We must not lose sight of the option that there might be legit traitorous subunits that legit get into a fight with RuAF. Therefore, even a whole platoon getting wiped won't necessarily trigger this condition
4. this all ends amicably but Prigozhin gets executed (hangs) or "falls out of a window" after this is all over
This is all very interesting. High level Russian government officials are issuing rather angry proclamations, this is skewing the dillema heavily into the "mutiny" direction.
I basically agree, especially about civilian casualties. But Maskirovka in the digital age would have to have a special effects (FX) budget. Which means at some point we'll see columns of smoke, shooting blanks, and fake blood. The FX have to look real on television.
Also, Aleks has his sources inside Russia and so does the west. The televized portion, FX, has to look legit for the inside sources to be credible when they report to their handlers that this is really happening. The CIA's humanint (spies and assets) isn't very good these days, but they do still try.
I give 2 to 1 odds that Prigozhin 'gets detained,' but this time next year he is toasting a Russian victory with Putin and the 'evil' generals.
Remember the collapse of the Soviet Union when the USSR scheduled a referendum for states to choose independence or a union state with Russia. Belarus, Ukraine, and all of the stans were ready to join where a hardline communist coup was thwarted thanks to American intel. The end result was the fragmentation of all former Soviet states.
The USA will be thinking about this moment. It was a critical juncture with two options, a reformist union state under Gorbachev, or a continuation of existing union state under more conservative communist leadership. But the USA meddled and Yeltsin pulled Russia out of the union and implemented economic shock therapy, selling Russian assets for pennies on the dollar.
The neocons are doubtless salivating over the prospect of a repeat. They want to believe.
Ian Kummer was a US Marine and later served in the National Guard. He was never a SEAL. Never the less, I have been following him since he first posted on his father's blog fabiusmaximus dot com who I followed for 20+ years. Then Ian directed his readers to his site readingjunkie dot com. I even bought and read his book Ultraviolence.
On an other note, Weeb Union had an interesting speculation about Wagner's march toward Moscow. Could it be this "mutiny" is a stupendous mariscova and Wagner does a hard Left and goes Southwest toward the Ukrainian Rear? We don't know and all is speculation. Only time will tell. Prigozhin has proven to be a troll and drama queen but weeks ago he had a meeting with Vlademir Vlademerovich Putin. It was said the meeting was very fruitful.
As Ian posted, there's no hard evidence of helicopters shot down.
Of course, if this all were some incredibly elaborate ruse, planned over months (when throughout this war, Russia has been comically bad at P.R., when they even bothered to try to manage P.R. at all) why would Russia want to appear weak and unstable to the rest of the world?
That is not the way to convince wavering countries to come onside. Even if they may sympathize with Russia, they fear American vengeance.
I have said all along that Russia has miscalculated several times in the course of this war, first and foremost by failing to use enough force to end the war quickly. Had Putin done this, we would not be facing this mess.
No, that is not in any way intended to say that Prigozhin is the man for the job. Or Strelkov, for that matter.
Sure has the hallmarks of a CIA operation where Prigozhin was bribed. Not sure how Prigozhin calculated that this was going to end for him. If he had been arrested before this happened (he was indicted) then he would have gotten off rather easy. Now Russia has no choice but to do something much more harsh with him. He can't spend any CIA bribe money if he is in jail, so not sure what he was thinking. I expect this to be a several day standoff, and that things will defuse after that, with Prigozhin being forced to submit to arrest. Any other course will be a disaster for Prigozhin and PMC.
If this is not deception on epic scale (I still believe is) then Russia proved to be weak country and more months of underperforming on the frontlines will follow.. Avdeevka still in ukie hands for next 15 months
Underperforming on the front lines? Huh? What exactly do you call over 600,000 Ukrainian military killed or wounded so far? Give me more of this 'under-performing' please. Just alone in the last 2 weeks of the failed Ukrainian counter offensive, the Ukes lost 70,000 killed or wounded by stumbling into Russian kill zones. And lost another 70,000 in Bakhmut defending that smoking hole. Give me more of this under-performing please. So far the Russians have managed to destroy 2 whole Ukrainian armies and their equipment--and are now on the verge of destroying a 3rd whole NATO trained and equipped army. Give me more of this kinda' under-performing please.
My opinion differs from yours... I do hope it is a large scale deception and that 'big arrow' offensives will take place. Why? Because the western globalist, homosexual emerging tyranny/agenda must be defeated. By defeating all the efforts of NATO and the USA in Ukraine--the emerging tyrants in DC will be completely and utterly discredited. Their efforts will be seen for what they are--and that is attempting to bring Russia under their heel, both militarily and economically. The tyrants in DC must be discredited politically if there is any hope of salvaging the USA. When I seen the end of this so-called Russian coup, conveniently ending with Wagner forces withdrawing to Belarus, you know they are being prepositioned on the pretense of amnesty in order to put them in a strategic position for be the vanguard of a big arrow thrust into Ukraine--most likely driving south between Kiev and the Polish border to cutoff NATO's supply routes to the Ukrainian army in the east. Let's hope this is the case.
Unfortunately, Martyanov also seems to agree with you and that we are facing a betrayal.The only thing we can do is to pray that everything will be resolved without bloodshed.Let's pray for Russia!
With Putin's address, and the movement of Wagner's troops, I no longer see this as a psyop. This is real, and I can't imagine what Prigozhin is thinking will happen as a result. Half of his troops will likely abandon Wagner and join the Russian forces.
I can now confirm this fully by my sources in Moscow.
It is not psyops or Maskirovka. It is real.
Interesting commentary, as always, by M.K. Bhadrakumar:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-a-russian-oligarch
Your humility about being uncertain is refreshing.
No joke. Too many commentators are overconfident.
Some analysts in the past have speculated that members of Russian intelligence services were behind the leadership of the Wagner Company.The treachery we are witnessing also extends to sectors of Russian intelligence services???
As soon as I have time I will write about it.
I assume that Prigozhin and the people supporting him don't see themselves as traitors. There are many people in the intelligence services and the military that are entirely dissatisfied with the SMO approach.
They see Putin as the traitor and not themselves.
Russia could have end Ukraine within 3 months comprehensively.
But Putin chose to take all the long term geopolitical aspects into consideration. Hence, the SMO approach.
It is far to easy to search for traitors. The topic is far more complicated.
Putin couldn't communicate his strategy to his military and intelligence leaders. Maybe to the highest, yes. But below not.
Hence, they didn't have the full picture and SOME of them most likely decided to go against the guy they consider as the traitor. Putin. They would never call his name since then they would lose the Russian people.
John Kennedy was assassinated because he was seen as a traitor by the military and CIA, and also had enemies in the Federal Reserve banking system and Israel.
JFK was preventing Israel from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Johnson gave them plutonum secretly.
Lyndon Johnson was vile and evil in every way (in my humble, but well-informeed opinion).
Suddenly Prigozhin took the town in Russia and FSB didn't know anything about it? Yea, right. He would already be dead. Only possibility is if the intelligence community supports the coup and they hid the information. But Pirgozhin does not look smart or intelligent at all to stage a coup (his level is at max tactical commander on the battlefield), so I don't know who would be stupid enough to follow him.
If this is really a coup, and establishment didn't know about it, they wouldn't take a border town and announce to everyone that they will come to Moscow. This would most probably be doomed to failure. They would use an element of surprise and already be in Moscow.
Images are circulating of a fuel depot blown up in Voronezh. Interesting.
Here's list of conditions that that I came up with and that, if any of them is fulfilled, would for me decide the deception-or-mutiny dillema as mutiny:
1. more than a few dead civilians; ESPECIALLY if they die as collateral damage in fighting between Wagner and RuAF
2. something important blown up... might be triggered by the fuel depot, but fuel depots have been blowing up for months and nothing happened afterwards... debatable if this got triggered
3. more than a dozen dead soldiers, RuAF or Wagner. However! We must not lose sight of the option that there might be legit traitorous subunits that legit get into a fight with RuAF. Therefore, even a whole platoon getting wiped won't necessarily trigger this condition
4. this all ends amicably but Prigozhin gets executed (hangs) or "falls out of a window" after this is all over
This is all very interesting. High level Russian government officials are issuing rather angry proclamations, this is skewing the dillema heavily into the "mutiny" direction.
I basically agree, especially about civilian casualties. But Maskirovka in the digital age would have to have a special effects (FX) budget. Which means at some point we'll see columns of smoke, shooting blanks, and fake blood. The FX have to look real on television.
Also, Aleks has his sources inside Russia and so does the west. The televized portion, FX, has to look legit for the inside sources to be credible when they report to their handlers that this is really happening. The CIA's humanint (spies and assets) isn't very good these days, but they do still try.
I give 2 to 1 odds that Prigozhin 'gets detained,' but this time next year he is toasting a Russian victory with Putin and the 'evil' generals.
Follow up thought.
Remember the collapse of the Soviet Union when the USSR scheduled a referendum for states to choose independence or a union state with Russia. Belarus, Ukraine, and all of the stans were ready to join where a hardline communist coup was thwarted thanks to American intel. The end result was the fragmentation of all former Soviet states.
The USA will be thinking about this moment. It was a critical juncture with two options, a reformist union state under Gorbachev, or a continuation of existing union state under more conservative communist leadership. But the USA meddled and Yeltsin pulled Russia out of the union and implemented economic shock therapy, selling Russian assets for pennies on the dollar.
The neocons are doubtless salivating over the prospect of a repeat. They want to believe.
What about the possibility of Prig's betrayal as western agent?
Ps thanks a lot for the update on these very unsettling events
Here's another good commentary from Ian Kummer. A US Navy Seal who lives in Russia.
https://readingjunkie.com/2023/06/24/is-the-prigozhin-insurrection-a-black-swan-event/
Ian Kummer was a US Marine and later served in the National Guard. He was never a SEAL. Never the less, I have been following him since he first posted on his father's blog fabiusmaximus dot com who I followed for 20+ years. Then Ian directed his readers to his site readingjunkie dot com. I even bought and read his book Ultraviolence.
On an other note, Weeb Union had an interesting speculation about Wagner's march toward Moscow. Could it be this "mutiny" is a stupendous mariscova and Wagner does a hard Left and goes Southwest toward the Ukrainian Rear? We don't know and all is speculation. Only time will tell. Prigozhin has proven to be a troll and drama queen but weeks ago he had a meeting with Vlademir Vlademerovich Putin. It was said the meeting was very fruitful.
As Ian posted, there's no hard evidence of helicopters shot down.
Kind regards Chris.
I was never a Navy SEAL :)
Of course, if this all were some incredibly elaborate ruse, planned over months (when throughout this war, Russia has been comically bad at P.R., when they even bothered to try to manage P.R. at all) why would Russia want to appear weak and unstable to the rest of the world?
That is not the way to convince wavering countries to come onside. Even if they may sympathize with Russia, they fear American vengeance.
I have said all along that Russia has miscalculated several times in the course of this war, first and foremost by failing to use enough force to end the war quickly. Had Putin done this, we would not be facing this mess.
No, that is not in any way intended to say that Prigozhin is the man for the job. Or Strelkov, for that matter.
Sure has the hallmarks of a CIA operation where Prigozhin was bribed. Not sure how Prigozhin calculated that this was going to end for him. If he had been arrested before this happened (he was indicted) then he would have gotten off rather easy. Now Russia has no choice but to do something much more harsh with him. He can't spend any CIA bribe money if he is in jail, so not sure what he was thinking. I expect this to be a several day standoff, and that things will defuse after that, with Prigozhin being forced to submit to arrest. Any other course will be a disaster for Prigozhin and PMC.
The CIA is not that good.
Oh Aleks I pray for Putin. He has put his life in and for Russia. The worst is that the west is winning again. Thank you for keeping us updated 🙏😭
If this is not deception on epic scale (I still believe is) then Russia proved to be weak country and more months of underperforming on the frontlines will follow.. Avdeevka still in ukie hands for next 15 months
Underperforming on the front lines? Huh? What exactly do you call over 600,000 Ukrainian military killed or wounded so far? Give me more of this 'under-performing' please. Just alone in the last 2 weeks of the failed Ukrainian counter offensive, the Ukes lost 70,000 killed or wounded by stumbling into Russian kill zones. And lost another 70,000 in Bakhmut defending that smoking hole. Give me more of this under-performing please. So far the Russians have managed to destroy 2 whole Ukrainian armies and their equipment--and are now on the verge of destroying a 3rd whole NATO trained and equipped army. Give me more of this kinda' under-performing please.
As a father and Grandfather, I can say that you must not panic until there is something to panic about. Relax and have a cup of tea.
From my military days (luckily limited) if you cannot explain an event have some tea and wait 72 hours.
Few of us are involved in this inexplicable incident so there is no rush. Keep an eye open and wait.
For anyone interested - here's Saturday 6.24 live Q&A with The Duran about this situation.
https://theduran.locals.com/upost/4195142/prigozhin-mutiny-and-putins-speech-1917
One question only:
You say that all this Coup thing MAY BE a Maskirovka / Deception operation with possible unexpected Big Arrows on the Kharkov / Belirusian front.
However, at the end you sat that you "pray for this not to be real, otherwise the shit will hit the fan".
I got confused, as the shit hitting the fan would be precisely that of a power struggle, not a big arrow offensive on the north of Ukraine.
Can you elaborate on why a power struggle in Russia would be a less worse outcome than a Real Coup on the Kremlin?
My opinion differs from yours... I do hope it is a large scale deception and that 'big arrow' offensives will take place. Why? Because the western globalist, homosexual emerging tyranny/agenda must be defeated. By defeating all the efforts of NATO and the USA in Ukraine--the emerging tyrants in DC will be completely and utterly discredited. Their efforts will be seen for what they are--and that is attempting to bring Russia under their heel, both militarily and economically. The tyrants in DC must be discredited politically if there is any hope of salvaging the USA. When I seen the end of this so-called Russian coup, conveniently ending with Wagner forces withdrawing to Belarus, you know they are being prepositioned on the pretense of amnesty in order to put them in a strategic position for be the vanguard of a big arrow thrust into Ukraine--most likely driving south between Kiev and the Polish border to cutoff NATO's supply routes to the Ukrainian army in the east. Let's hope this is the case.