Aleks, thank you very much for this terrific analysis! I have close friends in Germany. There is no hope for this country. Because people are clueless. They have no clue. They listen to their mass media and believe it. They hate Putin. Nordstream did not ring any bell for them. They consider that tough times might come so instead of 3 vacations per year they will have 2. So naive. The reality will hit them hard.
Why not rotate them like usual? Pentagon chief extends deployment of carrier strike group in Red Sea as Houthi attacks go on
The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at least another month, according to U.S. officials. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed the order last week to extend the four ships’ deployment for a second time, rather than bring the carrier, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, and its three warships home. The other ships in the strike group are the USS Philippine Sea, a cruiser, and two destroyers, the USS Gravely and the USS Mason. https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2024-05-31/aircraft-carrier-red-sea-deployment-extended-14042845.html
The official denial includes photos you "should not believe" with a red line through them (including a new one), indicating that this denial defense is failing to hide the reports.
Disinformation campaign uses fake footage to claim attack on USS Eisenhower
False claims of a missile attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels against an American aircraft carrier in the Red Sea over the weekend were followed by a flood of doctored images and bogus videos online, which were amplified by pro-Chinese and pro-Russian social media accounts.
The U.S. Navy said there was no truth to the messages claiming the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower had been severely damaged or possibly sunk.
"The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) remains in the U.S. Central Command region. The sailors and the ship are ready and postured to respond to any contingency at a moment's notice," a Navy spokesperson told CBS News on Tuesday. "We are committed to protecting freedom of navigation and commerce in the region alongside our partners and allies." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/yemen-houthi-attack-disinformation-uss-eisenhower/
I fully agree. Did quite some research in Central Europe and Western Balkans, so your analysis makes very much sense for me (including re the extremely short-sighted stance of the German elite. I am afraid it is worse. Proceeding from the Maison Rouge meeting in Strasbourg 1944, there seems to be still an influential branch of West Prussian/Deutschherrenritter Orden hybris among the traditional cream swimming on the top, co-existing with the Catholic front-line think merging with fascism contra former Konstantinopolis. They seem to think that they can use the US folly to catch their share and dreamt of Yugoslavising the Soviet Union land mass, expanding their control by a blend of military, economic and cultural means. That illusion crashed already, but they still don't get it, I am afraid they will have to learn it the hard way again (pushing once more a large share of their people into the abyss).
“It took Russia eight years to prepare itself to enter Ukraine and survive the ensuing sanctions.”
This is exactly what I tell Russians who complain about Putin.
The sanctions for Crimea - barely a fraction of what they imposed in 2022 - doubled the USD/RUB and brought GDP down by 45%.
What do they think would have happened if Russia went all in?
In 2022 Russia was the most sanctioned country in the world completely (practically) cutoff from Western trading and financial systems … and what happened?
Superb read Alex, I liken what we are witnessing to both sides spinning dozens of plates in a grand geopolitical death match. The prize is the new world order, if the 'west' wins, and by the west I really mean the USA - which is the defacto west in truth, then essentially the world will become a US fiefdom, depending on what you bring you'll serve a function in this new empire (china and India and Brazil to become eternal sweatshops producing for the US)
However I don't forsee a world in which this happens without nuclear war, rather I see the likeliest outcome as a breaking down of the US empire, gradually then suddenly.
In this game we are witnessing there's fundamentally two factors.
For Russia and China the cost of losing is an end to both countries, it is as existential as it can be, losing cannot be an option and so if that becomes the clear outcome then it will escalate to a nuclear war. However for the US the existential threat is to its global empire - NOT to the USA itself which even losing its empire would still remain in perpetuity a great power, so whilst you would have the usual idiots screaming to escalate to nuclear to save the US hegemony (it's already gone IMO) the real decision makers would realise (at least I hope they would) that the US would just need to reshape itself in view of the new realities, start to form genuine mutual alliances and rebuild itself.
In actual fact in terms of the long term health of the USA, losing its hegemony will in my humble opinion be remembered as the spark which moulded a new 'better' future for America and it's people. One more akin to the late 1800s early 1900s USA based on being very self sufficient and internally robust, 'a government of the people for the people' to use a very well known line.
The US has had throughout it's history certain inflection points, to list the 5 most obvious. 1. The war of I dependence and the subsequent forming of the constitution, 2. The civil war, and the forming of the united states as we kind of know it now, 3. The great depression - and subsequent reindustrialization of a America, 4. Post world war two and the US essentially taking on the mantle of the dominant global empire (western), 5. The end of the cold war and the US becoming the global hegemon.
Now we are at the sixth of what i call the great inflection points. The question becomes how will the USA change as it did greatly at each of the prior points...
I ignored what I see as other minor inflection points which caused a great shift in and of themselves in favour of focusing on those major 5 soon to become 6. Minor ones I'd say include things such as the Vietnam war, 9/11 etc which caused a substantial change of what America is themselves.
One thing I'm certain of, is that within the next decade possibly very soon a great period of introspection will happen, the results will define exactly 'what is America'
The positivity with which you see the future should not be crushed, but I think you're also under very strong normalcy bias. https://sonar21.com/what-is-the-largest-invasion-in-world-history/ This has a very shocking parallel with the Gothic invasion of Rome's Balkan provinces. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqCCx4wj79o And then there's the stuff with impending hyperinflation of USD. Will USA be able to handle a literal reset of the financial system? We'll find out, for sure. xD
Anyway, here's a line I use to bolster people's spirits: "French is ROMANCE language. Somebody stood up to the invaders."
The ANC lost its majority for the first time in 30 years, so suddenly no one has an ideology and wants to be their coalition partner. Of course, behind the scenes, the USA and UK will have an agenda, and so will Russia and China on the other. Our politicians are, of course, for sale. Whatever the result, it will create trouble, and I would hate for the Unrest or worse to happen again.
Philippines - we’re right by Taiwan, already play host to American bases, and have our own grievances with China. Only thing missing is a military that can do much.
The problem with western reindustrialization is that neither the industrial infrastructure is there anymore, neither the industrial know-how - and, above all, neither the population has the training or the skills (educational or vocal) to fill-in potential industrial workplaces.
Russia today produces more engineers than the US. Who's gonna fill in the industry jobs in the West? The woke students of nefarious degrees on gender theory (just an example)?
Of course, countries like the US or Geramany (who maintain a certain level of industrialization) have better chances than those who didn't - but overall, reversing a 30 y.o. process is more easily said than done.
There are no good countries. They're simply competing for power, as they always have, whether it be economic or for control of the United Nations. What we at the bottom get, as we always have, is propaganda. Unfortunately, propaganda tastes good but has no nutritional value. So we become outsiders forsaking the luxury of laziness to try figure out what the hell is happening, but it's a bitch to turn truth into a tool to improve our lives. That's the catch-22 of knowledge and the realism of power.
Ah, awe. Well, an excellent read over on this side of the pond. I am following the best I can. I did awaken at a late age; warp speed ahead these last few decades. Since I have provided for myself, aka…a self made person, with no inheritance and such…the little I “own”, well…the saying goes…you cannot take it with you when you transcend the body🤪 I have noted, just this year, 2024…the economics of survival, not…exuberant thriving, have descended. It will surely be a…wild ride on the way out. My bestie; God, Family…and your Country💙🇷🇸❤️🇷🇺💙❤️🐈⬛
Russia will lose the war, Ukraine even more of course, but forget Ukraine without nato (at least weapons + money). This is existential even more now for the West as for once bojo said and Biden today, they will spend trillions if necessary, bankrupt their middle class but they will play the long term 20/50 years war.
Nuclear accident on both sides is a possibility. Putin is a good businessman but a zero in wars. He was surrounded by 'yes man' total corrupted incompetent (mod fsb in 2022) who lies to him. Now even if Russia reacted quiet well it lacks also the manpower, the grinding op is far too slow, time is and for me was never on Russia side. Smo format was a mistake, grinding ops as well.
They must accelarete as nato troops are entering ukraine, this will be too late after to push them back as VP is too prudent, soldiers on the front have enough they want Moscow to give and ultimatum to the illegal Zelensky clique: 12h for total surrender or face 'sarmatting' of main western 404 cities + kiev if necessary. Once finaly decapitated, nato will be afraid as they also don't have enough manpower, no experience in high intensity war, and less and less weapons.
Russia must immediately since US authorised to strike Russia= declaration of war, declare a no fly zone on the black sea and all of ukraine. More a first strike(conventionnal) as last ultimatum to the west to stop immediately to provide money + weapons otherwise an 'exemple' will be made on selected countries in nato including UK US. It may be asymetrical as the US is so overextended (805 bases worldwide) very easy, but there must finaly be costs for nato military on their soil (deads + infra destroyed).
Nato people are all talks, words, multiple meetings, statements etc but they are cowards with no balls when things will become very hot, their populace will be afraid and put immense pressure on them, rich people will simply leave their money and relocate just in case. EU countries will collapse, inflation ll skyrocket, oil and gaz will become luxurious items, no cheap reliable energy, sorry no more economy.
This should regime change clowns like napomicron, meloni, baerbock and co...
You can not lie anymore when body bags returning to Paris or London or Washington will become the new daily routine, even less stay in power or win a potus reelection or UK election.
But it is 1 minute before midnight for Russia to change her strategy from reaction to leading decisive action , give a blow to both ukr junta and EU Nato ones.
Time to wake up Moscow and use the big guns. Otherwise Russia will cease to exist even more China, Serbia, bric, Hungary and for us all our freedom.
Russia is about to recognize the Taliban government of Afghanistan and offer honest jobs to Afghans with experience fighting NATO, at much better pay, and with the upper-hand this time.
Russia is very conservative of Russian lives, and building up a huge northern army to sit and wait for NATO/Ukraine to make another move. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvl13QRkoBs
Well on the bright side, I don't think you're an LLM. xD
But to give a more serious refutation. Consider: an attacker suffers a 3:1 loss ratio against the defender. The West prematurely ejaculated when Russia attacked Ukraine because their population ratios are 3:1. That means, to kill all Ukrainians, Russians need to depopulate themselves, which will allow the Western Master Race to just walk in unopposed and FINALLY take that Lebensraum. But now Russia is suffering a 1:10+ kill ratio, which means it will completely depopulate Ukraine while suffering only a <5% depopulation itself. So now EU will have to attack Russia, but EU only has 2.6 more people than Russia. EU+USA has ~5:1 population ratio to Russia, so if they attack combined, they actually can take out Russia, but they will be 2/3rds depopulated by the time they finally win. And then there's China.
You see? Vladimir Putin is playing the smart move. He saved Russia.
You really do live in an alternate reality of your own construction.
Incapable of seeing the war to end western hegemony is far more important than the conflict in Ukraine.
Ukraine is the Russian grinder for NATO.
East Ukraine is the location of the grinder because this forces NATO to have long logistic lines and fight on Russian terms, near Russia's backyard.
If you do not currently live in zioangloamerica- please move there so you can fully experience the rapidly approaching economic & societal collapse- up close.
My one hope is that people like you truly believe as you write and face maximum possible consequences when reality runs over your self created, delusional exceptionalist reality.
Poles (not the Polish-speaking elites in power in Poland) are not fools. No one who is not fooled by television propaganda has any intention of fighting Russia. Everyone who takes Polish interests seriously should care about the best possible relations with Russia and not about dying for the nation that committed the massacre in Wołyń.
Please do not write that Poland wants to participate militarily in this conflict. This is what Polish politicians want, who fully follow the recommendations of Western masters.
Very, very good writing as well! You wrote "Countries like Serbia, Hungary, and (hopefully) our Bulgarian brothers, but even countries like Austria and Italy could break away from the Western camp over time and join the BRICS trading space." >> You did not mention Slovenia and Croatia....I know Croatia is all Vatican-ruled, but how do you see Slovenia in this matter? I mean if there are political brains in Slovenia (which at the moment do not exist, trust me...) it should connect with Hungary and BRICS before Austria in order to allow Italy to connect via Slovenia via Hungary to BRICS from the point of logistics and access to the Mediterranean sea. In Slovenia, there is a big construction project of enlarging the train rail capacity significantly. I do not know if this is just a coincidence since Hungary was very eager to participate financially in the construction some years ago. Slovenian elite? Can something like that even exist and follow national interest? I guess we will see till the end of the decade. I would appreciate reflections from the community and you Aleks ;).
If autarkic industrialization was so easy, everyone would have done it and become wealthy. You need to learn why trade exists and why it benefits both sides. US did not make a mistake outsourcing, US made a mistake by blaming China for it's own internal contradictions (it did not share the trading wealth with it's disenfranchised people). Your recipe will lead to world wide poverty as was the case before globalization.
You explain in simple, easily comprehensible terms, just why the Germans stand by helplessly while their servile government acquised to America, when it blew up the pipeline from Russia; and, to add icing to the cake, have Germany shut down its nuclear power! Any German with half a brain would have wondered what in the hell Bonn was doing! (In other words, "No Energy for You Germans").
Europe was never an union of comparable free economic nations in the economic field. Europe always has been a political endeavour to forcibly bring together more or less compatible nation States. From the onset, sensibilities and expectations were different, and the tighter the economic union, the more apparent problems became. Nation States, where a democratic compromise between diverging interest can arise, are the offspring of hundreds - Even thousands - of years of bloody and messy nation building processes. Europe is a very young artificial construct without any democratic legitimacy. From the onset its existence as a political endeavour makes of it the arena of political and economic might, where more latin States became enslaved to diverging germanic States dominance. There never was a golden age of economic mutual benefit in the european union as soon as state financing came into the equation.
I was told by a French officer, almost 20 years ago, that EU was invented to prevent another big war in Europe. This was the plan: if we are mutually independent, somebody will inevitably covet the other guy's stuff and try to take it by force, starting a war. Instead, let's make ourselves INTERDEPENDANT, so that we would crash if we ever were to start against each other. Our mutual dependance will ensure we don't start another war against each other. And so, France and (West) Germany created the European Coal and Steel Community, to share the mineral resources of their border regions. Then this plan expanded. That's the Origin myth of EU I was told, and all the relevant facts check out.
“Russia will have a land bridge to Hungary and Serbia. This will give these countries the opportunity to choose market”
I was just finally able to read this today. Just when the EU announced a 200 million euro fine against Hungary, plus 1 million euros / day until it complies with the eu laws regarding migrants.
Now or never - Hungary must choose and I hope it will leave the EU and choose BRICS. And I hope Serbia will withdraw its EU application.
As you accurately said the EU project was free movement of capital, free trade of goods and free
movement of people.
By now it has morphed into a political dictatorship where member states have essentially lost their sovereignty.
Aleks, thank you very much for this terrific analysis! I have close friends in Germany. There is no hope for this country. Because people are clueless. They have no clue. They listen to their mass media and believe it. They hate Putin. Nordstream did not ring any bell for them. They consider that tough times might come so instead of 3 vacations per year they will have 2. So naive. The reality will hit them hard.
'We could never have done what we have done without the support we received from the media' - David Rockefeller (paraphrase)
We may be at a sharp transition point:
CONFIRMED: USS EISENHOWER AFLAME AS SECOND ATTACK DESTROYS FLIGHT DECK – MANY DEAD AND WOUNDED (CONFIRMED VIDS/PHOTOS)
https://www.theinteldrop.org/2024/06/03/confirmed-uss-eisenhower-aflame-as-second-attack-destroys-flight-deck-many-dead-and-wounded-confirmed-vids-photos/
Video clip of missile hitting Eisenhower, which I have posted before is now "confirmed":
https://x.com/JMforum/status/1796658280103621107?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1796658280103621107%7Ctwgr%5Eb3d7f107fcbac548196b55559da635d2f91e39cf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_
Putin: We Could Supply Long-Range Missiles To Enemies Of West In Retaliation https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ny-times-confirms-first-ukraine-strike-russia-us-long-range-missiles
US Navy Warships Fight Off Missiles That Are ‘Way Faster’ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-navy-warships-fight-off-missiles-that-are-way-faster/ss-BB1nDe93
Why not rotate them like usual? Pentagon chief extends deployment of carrier strike group in Red Sea as Houthi attacks go on
The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at least another month, according to U.S. officials. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed the order last week to extend the four ships’ deployment for a second time, rather than bring the carrier, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, and its three warships home. The other ships in the strike group are the USS Philippine Sea, a cruiser, and two destroyers, the USS Gravely and the USS Mason. https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2024-05-31/aircraft-carrier-red-sea-deployment-extended-14042845.html
The official denial includes photos you "should not believe" with a red line through them (including a new one), indicating that this denial defense is failing to hide the reports.
Disinformation campaign uses fake footage to claim attack on USS Eisenhower
False claims of a missile attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels against an American aircraft carrier in the Red Sea over the weekend were followed by a flood of doctored images and bogus videos online, which were amplified by pro-Chinese and pro-Russian social media accounts.
The U.S. Navy said there was no truth to the messages claiming the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower had been severely damaged or possibly sunk.
"The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) remains in the U.S. Central Command region. The sailors and the ship are ready and postured to respond to any contingency at a moment's notice," a Navy spokesperson told CBS News on Tuesday. "We are committed to protecting freedom of navigation and commerce in the region alongside our partners and allies." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/yemen-houthi-attack-disinformation-uss-eisenhower/
Excellent. Prescient. Keep writing.
I fully agree. Did quite some research in Central Europe and Western Balkans, so your analysis makes very much sense for me (including re the extremely short-sighted stance of the German elite. I am afraid it is worse. Proceeding from the Maison Rouge meeting in Strasbourg 1944, there seems to be still an influential branch of West Prussian/Deutschherrenritter Orden hybris among the traditional cream swimming on the top, co-existing with the Catholic front-line think merging with fascism contra former Konstantinopolis. They seem to think that they can use the US folly to catch their share and dreamt of Yugoslavising the Soviet Union land mass, expanding their control by a blend of military, economic and cultural means. That illusion crashed already, but they still don't get it, I am afraid they will have to learn it the hard way again (pushing once more a large share of their people into the abyss).
“It took Russia eight years to prepare itself to enter Ukraine and survive the ensuing sanctions.”
This is exactly what I tell Russians who complain about Putin.
The sanctions for Crimea - barely a fraction of what they imposed in 2022 - doubled the USD/RUB and brought GDP down by 45%.
What do they think would have happened if Russia went all in?
In 2022 Russia was the most sanctioned country in the world completely (practically) cutoff from Western trading and financial systems … and what happened?
She’s doing better than ever.
Superb read Alex, I liken what we are witnessing to both sides spinning dozens of plates in a grand geopolitical death match. The prize is the new world order, if the 'west' wins, and by the west I really mean the USA - which is the defacto west in truth, then essentially the world will become a US fiefdom, depending on what you bring you'll serve a function in this new empire (china and India and Brazil to become eternal sweatshops producing for the US)
However I don't forsee a world in which this happens without nuclear war, rather I see the likeliest outcome as a breaking down of the US empire, gradually then suddenly.
In this game we are witnessing there's fundamentally two factors.
For Russia and China the cost of losing is an end to both countries, it is as existential as it can be, losing cannot be an option and so if that becomes the clear outcome then it will escalate to a nuclear war. However for the US the existential threat is to its global empire - NOT to the USA itself which even losing its empire would still remain in perpetuity a great power, so whilst you would have the usual idiots screaming to escalate to nuclear to save the US hegemony (it's already gone IMO) the real decision makers would realise (at least I hope they would) that the US would just need to reshape itself in view of the new realities, start to form genuine mutual alliances and rebuild itself.
In actual fact in terms of the long term health of the USA, losing its hegemony will in my humble opinion be remembered as the spark which moulded a new 'better' future for America and it's people. One more akin to the late 1800s early 1900s USA based on being very self sufficient and internally robust, 'a government of the people for the people' to use a very well known line.
The US has had throughout it's history certain inflection points, to list the 5 most obvious. 1. The war of I dependence and the subsequent forming of the constitution, 2. The civil war, and the forming of the united states as we kind of know it now, 3. The great depression - and subsequent reindustrialization of a America, 4. Post world war two and the US essentially taking on the mantle of the dominant global empire (western), 5. The end of the cold war and the US becoming the global hegemon.
Now we are at the sixth of what i call the great inflection points. The question becomes how will the USA change as it did greatly at each of the prior points...
I ignored what I see as other minor inflection points which caused a great shift in and of themselves in favour of focusing on those major 5 soon to become 6. Minor ones I'd say include things such as the Vietnam war, 9/11 etc which caused a substantial change of what America is themselves.
One thing I'm certain of, is that within the next decade possibly very soon a great period of introspection will happen, the results will define exactly 'what is America'
The positivity with which you see the future should not be crushed, but I think you're also under very strong normalcy bias. https://sonar21.com/what-is-the-largest-invasion-in-world-history/ This has a very shocking parallel with the Gothic invasion of Rome's Balkan provinces. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqCCx4wj79o And then there's the stuff with impending hyperinflation of USD. Will USA be able to handle a literal reset of the financial system? We'll find out, for sure. xD
Anyway, here's a line I use to bolster people's spirits: "French is ROMANCE language. Somebody stood up to the invaders."
Serbia truly is in a tough spot. Besieged on all sides and dependent on their bombers can't be a good position to be in.
Let's hope they get relief of some kind soon.
I sympathise. My country is also in a tough spot, and our immediate future will be decided in back room deals over the next 10 days.
Airstrip One? I wish you luck from the Poland of Southeast Asia. At least Poland has a military that's an actual consideration, though....
South Africa. Tumultuous time.
You'll need double the luck, then. South Africa has has it very rough for very long.
I follow energy so I've heard about ESKOM outages, corruption, transformer and copper theft, and other assorted nightmares.
The ANC lost its majority for the first time in 30 years, so suddenly no one has an ideology and wants to be their coalition partner. Of course, behind the scenes, the USA and UK will have an agenda, and so will Russia and China on the other. Our politicians are, of course, for sale. Whatever the result, it will create trouble, and I would hate for the Unrest or worse to happen again.
Power abhors a vacuum - everyone on the sidelines comes rushing in to be king of the hill.
Meanwhile we all just want to grill.
Sir, if I may ask You and pardon me if I touch any sensible spot, no bad wishes but only curious.
From Lethal Weapon movie on.. only movie I saw where a foreign ambassador was killed I supposed Your Country was the absolute bogeyman ... but why?
I think it was because of the gold rand... too strong competitor for the naked us toilet paper...
Am I wrong? You had to be depicted as the evil ones to fight because of that?
Who is the Poland of South East Asia ; Vietnam ?
Vietnam is the old Prussia. Japanese similar to English, share the same barbarity and cruelty. Probably the Philippines, the sick man of Asia.
Philippines - we’re right by Taiwan, already play host to American bases, and have our own grievances with China. Only thing missing is a military that can do much.
Philippines? ("PI")
All the Polynesians, who are much larger and powerfully built, agree, "don't mess with Filipinos".
Yep. Right below Taiwan, much worse-armed, already playing host to US bases.
Y'all are hard to conquer. Look out for the Eisenhower, which is badly blown up bu Houthis, maybe with Russian tit-for-tat missiles:
https://x.com/JMforum/status/1796658280103621107?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1796658280103621107%7Ctwgr%5Eb3d7f107fcbac548196b55559da635d2f91e39cf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_
https://www.vtforeignpolicy.com/2024/06/confirmed-uss-eisenhower-aflame-as-second-attack-destroys-flight-deck-many-dead-and-wounded/
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ny-times-confirms-first-ukraine-strike-russia-us-long-range-missiles
You ask me, it'd be cheaper to just buy and intimidate us. Which is what I think both powers are more likely doing.
The problem with western reindustrialization is that neither the industrial infrastructure is there anymore, neither the industrial know-how - and, above all, neither the population has the training or the skills (educational or vocal) to fill-in potential industrial workplaces.
Russia today produces more engineers than the US. Who's gonna fill in the industry jobs in the West? The woke students of nefarious degrees on gender theory (just an example)?
Of course, countries like the US or Geramany (who maintain a certain level of industrialization) have better chances than those who didn't - but overall, reversing a 30 y.o. process is more easily said than done.
There are no good countries. They're simply competing for power, as they always have, whether it be economic or for control of the United Nations. What we at the bottom get, as we always have, is propaganda. Unfortunately, propaganda tastes good but has no nutritional value. So we become outsiders forsaking the luxury of laziness to try figure out what the hell is happening, but it's a bitch to turn truth into a tool to improve our lives. That's the catch-22 of knowledge and the realism of power.
Ah, awe. Well, an excellent read over on this side of the pond. I am following the best I can. I did awaken at a late age; warp speed ahead these last few decades. Since I have provided for myself, aka…a self made person, with no inheritance and such…the little I “own”, well…the saying goes…you cannot take it with you when you transcend the body🤪 I have noted, just this year, 2024…the economics of survival, not…exuberant thriving, have descended. It will surely be a…wild ride on the way out. My bestie; God, Family…and your Country💙🇷🇸❤️🇷🇺💙❤️🐈⬛
Well, as an American, that was a bracing read.
Russia will lose the war, Ukraine even more of course, but forget Ukraine without nato (at least weapons + money). This is existential even more now for the West as for once bojo said and Biden today, they will spend trillions if necessary, bankrupt their middle class but they will play the long term 20/50 years war.
Nuclear accident on both sides is a possibility. Putin is a good businessman but a zero in wars. He was surrounded by 'yes man' total corrupted incompetent (mod fsb in 2022) who lies to him. Now even if Russia reacted quiet well it lacks also the manpower, the grinding op is far too slow, time is and for me was never on Russia side. Smo format was a mistake, grinding ops as well.
They must accelarete as nato troops are entering ukraine, this will be too late after to push them back as VP is too prudent, soldiers on the front have enough they want Moscow to give and ultimatum to the illegal Zelensky clique: 12h for total surrender or face 'sarmatting' of main western 404 cities + kiev if necessary. Once finaly decapitated, nato will be afraid as they also don't have enough manpower, no experience in high intensity war, and less and less weapons.
Russia must immediately since US authorised to strike Russia= declaration of war, declare a no fly zone on the black sea and all of ukraine. More a first strike(conventionnal) as last ultimatum to the west to stop immediately to provide money + weapons otherwise an 'exemple' will be made on selected countries in nato including UK US. It may be asymetrical as the US is so overextended (805 bases worldwide) very easy, but there must finaly be costs for nato military on their soil (deads + infra destroyed).
Nato people are all talks, words, multiple meetings, statements etc but they are cowards with no balls when things will become very hot, their populace will be afraid and put immense pressure on them, rich people will simply leave their money and relocate just in case. EU countries will collapse, inflation ll skyrocket, oil and gaz will become luxurious items, no cheap reliable energy, sorry no more economy.
This should regime change clowns like napomicron, meloni, baerbock and co...
You can not lie anymore when body bags returning to Paris or London or Washington will become the new daily routine, even less stay in power or win a potus reelection or UK election.
But it is 1 minute before midnight for Russia to change her strategy from reaction to leading decisive action , give a blow to both ukr junta and EU Nato ones.
Time to wake up Moscow and use the big guns. Otherwise Russia will cease to exist even more China, Serbia, bric, Hungary and for us all our freedom.
Russia is about to recognize the Taliban government of Afghanistan and offer honest jobs to Afghans with experience fighting NATO, at much better pay, and with the upper-hand this time.
Russia is very conservative of Russian lives, and building up a huge northern army to sit and wait for NATO/Ukraine to make another move. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvl13QRkoBs
Well on the bright side, I don't think you're an LLM. xD
But to give a more serious refutation. Consider: an attacker suffers a 3:1 loss ratio against the defender. The West prematurely ejaculated when Russia attacked Ukraine because their population ratios are 3:1. That means, to kill all Ukrainians, Russians need to depopulate themselves, which will allow the Western Master Race to just walk in unopposed and FINALLY take that Lebensraum. But now Russia is suffering a 1:10+ kill ratio, which means it will completely depopulate Ukraine while suffering only a <5% depopulation itself. So now EU will have to attack Russia, but EU only has 2.6 more people than Russia. EU+USA has ~5:1 population ratio to Russia, so if they attack combined, they actually can take out Russia, but they will be 2/3rds depopulated by the time they finally win. And then there's China.
You see? Vladimir Putin is playing the smart move. He saved Russia.
You really do live in an alternate reality of your own construction.
Incapable of seeing the war to end western hegemony is far more important than the conflict in Ukraine.
Ukraine is the Russian grinder for NATO.
East Ukraine is the location of the grinder because this forces NATO to have long logistic lines and fight on Russian terms, near Russia's backyard.
If you do not currently live in zioangloamerica- please move there so you can fully experience the rapidly approaching economic & societal collapse- up close.
My one hope is that people like you truly believe as you write and face maximum possible consequences when reality runs over your self created, delusional exceptionalist reality.
Poles (not the Polish-speaking elites in power in Poland) are not fools. No one who is not fooled by television propaganda has any intention of fighting Russia. Everyone who takes Polish interests seriously should care about the best possible relations with Russia and not about dying for the nation that committed the massacre in Wołyń.
Please do not write that Poland wants to participate militarily in this conflict. This is what Polish politicians want, who fully follow the recommendations of Western masters.
Very, very good writing as well! You wrote "Countries like Serbia, Hungary, and (hopefully) our Bulgarian brothers, but even countries like Austria and Italy could break away from the Western camp over time and join the BRICS trading space." >> You did not mention Slovenia and Croatia....I know Croatia is all Vatican-ruled, but how do you see Slovenia in this matter? I mean if there are political brains in Slovenia (which at the moment do not exist, trust me...) it should connect with Hungary and BRICS before Austria in order to allow Italy to connect via Slovenia via Hungary to BRICS from the point of logistics and access to the Mediterranean sea. In Slovenia, there is a big construction project of enlarging the train rail capacity significantly. I do not know if this is just a coincidence since Hungary was very eager to participate financially in the construction some years ago. Slovenian elite? Can something like that even exist and follow national interest? I guess we will see till the end of the decade. I would appreciate reflections from the community and you Aleks ;).
I'd be interested also in the likely trajectory for the Slovaks, thanks.
If autarkic industrialization was so easy, everyone would have done it and become wealthy. You need to learn why trade exists and why it benefits both sides. US did not make a mistake outsourcing, US made a mistake by blaming China for it's own internal contradictions (it did not share the trading wealth with it's disenfranchised people). Your recipe will lead to world wide poverty as was the case before globalization.
You explain in simple, easily comprehensible terms, just why the Germans stand by helplessly while their servile government acquised to America, when it blew up the pipeline from Russia; and, to add icing to the cake, have Germany shut down its nuclear power! Any German with half a brain would have wondered what in the hell Bonn was doing! (In other words, "No Energy for You Germans").
Europe was never an union of comparable free economic nations in the economic field. Europe always has been a political endeavour to forcibly bring together more or less compatible nation States. From the onset, sensibilities and expectations were different, and the tighter the economic union, the more apparent problems became. Nation States, where a democratic compromise between diverging interest can arise, are the offspring of hundreds - Even thousands - of years of bloody and messy nation building processes. Europe is a very young artificial construct without any democratic legitimacy. From the onset its existence as a political endeavour makes of it the arena of political and economic might, where more latin States became enslaved to diverging germanic States dominance. There never was a golden age of economic mutual benefit in the european union as soon as state financing came into the equation.
I was told by a French officer, almost 20 years ago, that EU was invented to prevent another big war in Europe. This was the plan: if we are mutually independent, somebody will inevitably covet the other guy's stuff and try to take it by force, starting a war. Instead, let's make ourselves INTERDEPENDANT, so that we would crash if we ever were to start against each other. Our mutual dependance will ensure we don't start another war against each other. And so, France and (West) Germany created the European Coal and Steel Community, to share the mineral resources of their border regions. Then this plan expanded. That's the Origin myth of EU I was told, and all the relevant facts check out.
Russia and their resurces were part of this plan as well (mutial benifits)...till recently.....
“Russia will have a land bridge to Hungary and Serbia. This will give these countries the opportunity to choose market”
I was just finally able to read this today. Just when the EU announced a 200 million euro fine against Hungary, plus 1 million euros / day until it complies with the eu laws regarding migrants.
Now or never - Hungary must choose and I hope it will leave the EU and choose BRICS. And I hope Serbia will withdraw its EU application.
As you accurately said the EU project was free movement of capital, free trade of goods and free
movement of people.
By now it has morphed into a political dictatorship where member states have essentially lost their sovereignty.